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Friday, June 1, 2012
New Video: Detailed Commodities Analysis From Chris Vermeulen
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Crude Oil Falls to Eight Month Low on Unemployment Rates
Crude fell to the lowest level in almost eight months as worsening employment rates in the U.S. and the euro area signaled fuel demand may tumble. Oil dropped as much as 4.6 percent after the Labor Department said American employers added the smallest number of workers in a year in May. The jobless rate in the 17 countries that use the euro reached the highest level on record, the European Union’s statistics office in Luxembourg reported.
“You need a word stronger than terrible for the jobs report,” said Stephen Schork, president of the Schork Group Inc. in Villanova, Pennsylvania. “Everything is driven by the lousy economic data.” Crude futures for July delivery declined $2.33, or 2.7 percent, to $84.20 a barrel at 9:39 a.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange after falling to $82.56, the lowest intraday level since Oct. 7. Prices are down 23 percent from this year’s settlement high of $109.77 on Feb. 24.
Brent for July settlement tumbled $2.15, or 2.1 percent, to $99.72 a barrel on the ICE Futures Europe exchange in London, falling below $100 for the first time since October.
U.S. payrolls climbed by 69,000, less than the most pessimistic estimate in a Bloomberg survey in which responses ranged from increases of 75,000 to 195,000. The jobless rate rose to 8.2 percent from 8.1 percent. It was forecast to hold at 8.1 percent.
Unemployment has exceeded 8 percent since February 2009, the longest such stretch since monthly records began in 1948.....Read the entire Bloomberg article.
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Thursday, May 31, 2012
King Dollar Dominates Crude Oil and Gold....Again!
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Crude oil closed lower on Thursday as it extends the decline off March's high. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If July extends this month's decline, the 75% retracement level of the 2011-2012 rally crossing at 85.69 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 93.86 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 90.60. Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 93.86. First support is today's low crossing at 85.86. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the 2011-2012 rally crossing at 85.69.
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Natural gas closed slightly higher due to short covering on Thursday as it consolidated some of this week's decline. The mid range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If July extends this week's decline, the reaction low crossing at 2.338 is the next downside target. If July renews the rally off April's low, February's high crossing at 3.104 is the next upside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 2.838. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 3.104. First support is today's low crossing at 2.377. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 2.338.
Today’s Stock Market Club Trading Triangles
Gold closed lower on Thursday as it extended the trading range of the past two weeks. The mid range close sets the stage for a steady opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling sideways to higher prices are possible near term. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 1601.40 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted. If August renews the decline off February's high, the 75% retracement level of the 2010-2011 rally crossing at 1461.30 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 1583.90. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 1601.40. First support is the reaction low crossing at 1529.30. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the 2010-2011 rally crossing at 1461.30.
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Crude oil closed lower on Thursday as it extends the decline off March's high. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If July extends this month's decline, the 75% retracement level of the 2011-2012 rally crossing at 85.69 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 93.86 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 90.60. Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 93.86. First support is today's low crossing at 85.86. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the 2011-2012 rally crossing at 85.69.
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Natural gas closed slightly higher due to short covering on Thursday as it consolidated some of this week's decline. The mid range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If July extends this week's decline, the reaction low crossing at 2.338 is the next downside target. If July renews the rally off April's low, February's high crossing at 3.104 is the next upside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 2.838. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 3.104. First support is today's low crossing at 2.377. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 2.338.
Today’s Stock Market Club Trading Triangles
Gold closed lower on Thursday as it extended the trading range of the past two weeks. The mid range close sets the stage for a steady opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling sideways to higher prices are possible near term. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 1601.40 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted. If August renews the decline off February's high, the 75% retracement level of the 2010-2011 rally crossing at 1461.30 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 1583.90. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 1601.40. First support is the reaction low crossing at 1529.30. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the 2010-2011 rally crossing at 1461.30.
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OPEC Spare Capacity in the First Quarter of 2012 at Lowest Level Since 2008
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The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) estimates that global spare crude oil production capacity averaged about 2.4 million barrels per day (bbl/d) during the first quarter of 2012, down about 1.3 million bbl/d from the same period in 2011 (see chart below). The world's spare crude oil production capacity is held by member countries of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). Spare capacity can serve as a buffer against oil market disruptions, and it gives OPEC additional political and economic influence in world markets. There is little or no spare capacity outside of the OPEC member countries.
Spare crude oil production capacity is now less than 3% of total world crude oil consumption—the lowest proportion since the fourth quarter of 2008—based on EIA estimates.
Spare crude oil production capacity is an important indicator of producers' ability to respond to potential disruptions; consequently, low spare oil production capacity tends to be associated with high oil prices and high oil price volatility. Similarly, rising spare capacity tends to be associated with falling oil prices and reduced volatility. However, spare capacity must also be considered in the context of a number of other market factors that can drive crude oil prices, such as global supply, demand, and inventory levels.
EIA defines spare crude oil production capacity as potential oil production that could be brought online within 30 days and sustained for at least 90 days, consistent with sound business practices. This does not include oil production increases that could not be sustained without degrading the future production capacity of a field.
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The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) estimates that global spare crude oil production capacity averaged about 2.4 million barrels per day (bbl/d) during the first quarter of 2012, down about 1.3 million bbl/d from the same period in 2011 (see chart below). The world's spare crude oil production capacity is held by member countries of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). Spare capacity can serve as a buffer against oil market disruptions, and it gives OPEC additional political and economic influence in world markets. There is little or no spare capacity outside of the OPEC member countries.
Spare crude oil production capacity is now less than 3% of total world crude oil consumption—the lowest proportion since the fourth quarter of 2008—based on EIA estimates.
Spare crude oil production capacity is an important indicator of producers' ability to respond to potential disruptions; consequently, low spare oil production capacity tends to be associated with high oil prices and high oil price volatility. Similarly, rising spare capacity tends to be associated with falling oil prices and reduced volatility. However, spare capacity must also be considered in the context of a number of other market factors that can drive crude oil prices, such as global supply, demand, and inventory levels.
EIA defines spare crude oil production capacity as potential oil production that could be brought online within 30 days and sustained for at least 90 days, consistent with sound business practices. This does not include oil production increases that could not be sustained without degrading the future production capacity of a field.
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Wednesday, May 30, 2012
Crude Oil Closes Below 62% Retracement Causing Severe Chart Damage
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Crude oil closed lower on Wednesday and below the 62% retracement level of the 2011-2012 rally crossing at 90.26 as it renewed the decline off March's high. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If July extends this month's decline, the 75% retracement level of the 2011-2012 rally crossing at 85.69 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 94.79 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 91.22. Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 94.79. First support is today's low crossing at 87.39. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the 2011-2012 rally crossing at 85.69.
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Natural gas closed lower on Wednesday as it extended yesterday's breakout below the 20 day moving average crossing at 2.576. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If July extends this week's decline, the reaction low crossing at 2.338 is the next downside target. If July renews the rally off April's low, February's high crossing at 3.104 is the next upside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 2.838. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 3.104. First support is today's low crossing at 2.393. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 2.338.
6 Things Successful Traders Have in Common
Gold closed higher due to short covering on Wednesday. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling sideways to higher prices are possible near term. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 1591.30 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted. If June renews the decline off February's high, the 38% retracement level of the 2008-2011 rally crossing at 1487.50 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 1586.30. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 1599.00. First support is the reaction low crossing at 1526.70. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the 2008-2011 rally crossing at 1487.50.
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Crude oil closed lower on Wednesday and below the 62% retracement level of the 2011-2012 rally crossing at 90.26 as it renewed the decline off March's high. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If July extends this month's decline, the 75% retracement level of the 2011-2012 rally crossing at 85.69 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 94.79 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 91.22. Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 94.79. First support is today's low crossing at 87.39. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the 2011-2012 rally crossing at 85.69.
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Natural gas closed lower on Wednesday as it extended yesterday's breakout below the 20 day moving average crossing at 2.576. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If July extends this week's decline, the reaction low crossing at 2.338 is the next downside target. If July renews the rally off April's low, February's high crossing at 3.104 is the next upside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 2.838. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 3.104. First support is today's low crossing at 2.393. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 2.338.
6 Things Successful Traders Have in Common
Gold closed higher due to short covering on Wednesday. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling sideways to higher prices are possible near term. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 1591.30 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted. If June renews the decline off February's high, the 38% retracement level of the 2008-2011 rally crossing at 1487.50 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 1586.30. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 1599.00. First support is the reaction low crossing at 1526.70. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the 2008-2011 rally crossing at 1487.50.
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Let's Compare Notes....ONG Crude Oil Daily Technical Outlook
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If you are a regular reader here you know we like to include trade ideas and opinions from many different sources. Here's is the "Crude Oil Daily Technical Outlook" from the staff at ONG. They really take the emotion out of trading and stick to the facts. And the fact is, the bulls are in trouble here.
Crude oil's decline resumed by taking out 89.28 temporary low and reaches as low as 87.75 so far. 61.8% retracement of 74.95 to 100.55 at 88.55 is broken firmly, suggesting downside momentum is building up again. Deeper decline should be seen to 80 psychological level and then 74.95 support. On the upside, break of 92.21 resistance is needed to signal short term bottoming. Otherwise, near term outlook will remain bearish even in case of recovery.
In the bigger picture, price actions from 114.84 are developing into a three wave consolidation pattern. And, the third leg should have already started at 110.55. Deeper fall should eventually be seen to 74.95 low and possibly below. Though, we'd likely see strong support from 64.23 cluster level, 61.8% retracement of 33.20 to 114.83 at 64.38 and bring another medium term rise. Hence we'll look for reversal signal below 74.95.
Nymex Crude Oil Continuous Contract 4 Hour, Daily, Weekly and Monthly Charts
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If you are a regular reader here you know we like to include trade ideas and opinions from many different sources. Here's is the "Crude Oil Daily Technical Outlook" from the staff at ONG. They really take the emotion out of trading and stick to the facts. And the fact is, the bulls are in trouble here.
Crude oil's decline resumed by taking out 89.28 temporary low and reaches as low as 87.75 so far. 61.8% retracement of 74.95 to 100.55 at 88.55 is broken firmly, suggesting downside momentum is building up again. Deeper decline should be seen to 80 psychological level and then 74.95 support. On the upside, break of 92.21 resistance is needed to signal short term bottoming. Otherwise, near term outlook will remain bearish even in case of recovery.
In the bigger picture, price actions from 114.84 are developing into a three wave consolidation pattern. And, the third leg should have already started at 110.55. Deeper fall should eventually be seen to 74.95 low and possibly below. Though, we'd likely see strong support from 64.23 cluster level, 61.8% retracement of 33.20 to 114.83 at 64.38 and bring another medium term rise. Hence we'll look for reversal signal below 74.95.
Nymex Crude Oil Continuous Contract 4 Hour, Daily, Weekly and Monthly Charts
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Tuesday, May 29, 2012
Natural Gas Falls Below 20 Day Moving Average....Gold and Oil Close Lower
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Crude oil [July contract] closed lower on Tuesday but remains above the 62% retracement level of the 2011-2012 rally crossing at 90.26. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If July extends this month's decline, the 75% retracement level of the 2011-2012 rally crossing at 85.69 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 95.74 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 91.91. Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 95.74. First support is last Wednesday's low crossing at 89.28. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the 2011-2012 rally crossing at 85.69.
20 Survival Skills for the Trader
Natural gas [now the July contract] closed lower on Tuesday and below the 20 day moving average crossing at 2.578 confirming that a short term top has been posted. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If July extends today's decline, the reaction low crossing at 2.338 is the next downside target. If July renews the rally off April's low, February's high crossing at 3.104 is the next upside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 2.838. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 3.104. First support is today's low crossing at 2.466. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 2.338.
Today’s Stock Market Club Trading Triangles
Gold closed [still the June contract] lower on Tuesday. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If June renews the decline off February's high, the 38% retracement level of the 2008-2011 rally crossing at 1487.50 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 1591.30 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 1591.30. Second resistance is this month's high crossing at 1672.30. First support is the reaction low crossing at 1526.70. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the 2008-2011 rally crossing at 1487.50.
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Crude oil [July contract] closed lower on Tuesday but remains above the 62% retracement level of the 2011-2012 rally crossing at 90.26. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If July extends this month's decline, the 75% retracement level of the 2011-2012 rally crossing at 85.69 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 95.74 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 91.91. Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 95.74. First support is last Wednesday's low crossing at 89.28. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the 2011-2012 rally crossing at 85.69.
20 Survival Skills for the Trader
Natural gas [now the July contract] closed lower on Tuesday and below the 20 day moving average crossing at 2.578 confirming that a short term top has been posted. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If July extends today's decline, the reaction low crossing at 2.338 is the next downside target. If July renews the rally off April's low, February's high crossing at 3.104 is the next upside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 2.838. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 3.104. First support is today's low crossing at 2.466. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 2.338.
Today’s Stock Market Club Trading Triangles
Gold closed [still the June contract] lower on Tuesday. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If June renews the decline off February's high, the 38% retracement level of the 2008-2011 rally crossing at 1487.50 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 1591.30 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 1591.30. Second resistance is this month's high crossing at 1672.30. First support is the reaction low crossing at 1526.70. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the 2008-2011 rally crossing at 1487.50.
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Carl Icahn Bought Chesapeake Energy, Should You?
Last week, it was announced that corporate raider Carl Icahn was up to his usual antics, acquiring a 7.6 percent activist stake in the natural gas E&P giant Chesapeake Energy Corp (NYSE: CHK). In a move that makes him the company’s third largest shareholder, Icahn bought 50 million shares of CHK worth nearly $800 million between April 19th and May 24th. Icahn has pledged to make a host of changes within Chesapeake, beginning with his appointment of four new board members. In the longer term, it is expected that he will look for CHK to shore up its troubled business model, which has led to cash flow shortages, and large declines in shareholder wealth. Over the past year, the company’s stock has lost nearly 50 percent, having recently hit a post recession low below $14 a share. The everyday investor may be wise to consider following Icahn into Chesapeake now, due to stock’s undervaluation, strong earnings growth, and future expansion potential.
One thing that sets this E&P operator, which stands for exploration and production, apart from its competitors is its dominance in the unconventional natural gas arena. In layman’s terms, unconventional natural gas is not extracted from traditional well based platforms; instead, it is gathered in a less economical manner.
In CHK’s case, it extracts natural gas from six distinct sources.....
(1) gas below 15,000 feet underground
(2) gas trapped in sandstone or limestone
(3) shale deposits
(4) coalbed methane
(5) geopressurized gas
(6) methane hydrates.
The latter is the newest form of natural gas in Chesapeake’s energy staple. From a macroeconomic standpoint, unconventional natural gas usage has nearly doubled in the past decade, and currently comprises 42 percent of all natural gas production in the U.S. It is estimated that this figure will reach 64 percent by 2020, driven by growth in the shale and coalbed markets.
Looking at its income statement, CHK has seen revenues remain stagnant since the recession, though the industry’s average has actually shrank during this time period, as it has yielded a 3-year average growth rate of -2.8 percent. More notably, competitors like Devon Energy (NYSE: DVN) at -6.2 percent, Anadarko Petroleum (NYSE: APC) at -2.7 percent have also experienced shrinking revenues, though EOG Resources (NYSE: EOG) and Apache Corp (NYSE: APA) have seen positive top line growth. From an earnings standpoint, CHK has been more impressive, generating a 3-year average EPS growth of 35.6 percent, higher than the industry average (-5.4%) and peers DVN, APC, and EOG.
From a valuation standpoint, CHK is undervalued, as it currently sports a P/E ratio (6.4X) below the industry average (16.3X), and it’s own 10-year historical average (13.5X). Moreover, shares of CHK have historically traded at a 20 percent discount relative to the S&P’s average over the past decade. This year, the stock is cheaper than usual, trading at a 58 percent discount. Using the industry average P/E in conjunction with a modest year-ahead EPS forecast of $1.80, we can set a target price of $29.34 by next spring.
It should also be pointed out that Chesapeake has had a host of cash flow problems, reporting negative free cash flows of at least -$3.0 billion since 2007. Interestingly, the company reported recently that it was expecting a positive FCF in 2012, due to sales of assets in its Mississippi Lime, Permian Basin, and Texas Panhandle Granite Wash regions. Icahn and other CHK shareholders are hoping that these sales can offset historic lows in natural gas prices, and it seems that the markets are responding favorably. Since company execs announced these plans on May 14th, shares of CHK have risen nearly 2 percent.
Looking to the hedge fund industry, CHK has a favorite of mega fund managers like Mason Hawkins, Curtis Macnguyen, John Rogers, and Peter Eichler over the past few years. Moreover, this month’s 13F filings show that funds like Millennium Management, Tetrem Capital Management, and Samlyn Capital increased their holdings in CHK in the first quarter of 2012. Whether its Carl Icahn’s promise to restore shareholder value back to this natural gas E&P, or the stock’s attractive valuation, investors may be wise to consider a long position in Chesapeake (CHK).
Posted courtesy of our friends at Insider Monkey.Com. If you aren't following the hedge funds you should be, and you should be doing it at Insider Monkey.Com
Here is the simple truth about trends
Monday, May 28, 2012
SP 500 Update.... U.S. Markets wear the Heavy Crown
The US market is one of very few trying to maintain a long term uptrend Bull cycle around the world. Most major world indices are in decline, only Germany and London are also trying to hang in of the major indices.
Will the rest of European problems continue to spillover and weigh down our markets in finally cause a flush? Or… will the US stay strong and lead higher amidst the turmoil?
The threat of debt repudiation resonates throughout Europe and has major headwinds for the Banking industries and otherwise… and it may be hard for the US market to gain much traction until we find out if there are any resolutions near term.
The Technical picture is mixed. The drop to 1292 from 1422 highs created a 38% fibonacci retracement of the October lows at 1074 and the March highs of 1422. This is typical for a 4th wave correction after 3 waves of rally. In addition, we had Mclellan Oscillators at extreme lows coming into this past week, investor sentiment running at multi month lows not seen since last summer, and many other oversold indicators.
This led to a 36 point bounce early in the week from 1292 to 1328, but it had trouble holding into the end of the week. I was looking for a strong close over 1322 to help confirm the downtrends lows were in place at 1292, but we did not get that just yet. Near term we have to see a very strong bounce this coming week over 1330 on a closing basis or the market will be at risk of a rising bearish wedge and then another large downleg to new lows since the 1422 highs. Therefore, Tuesday and Wednesday in my opinion will likely immediately tell us which way this market is about to go.
We have a few outlooks that are valid. One is that we had an ABC correction from 1422-1292 and we are in the early stages of a Major Wave 5 up bullish pattern. The other is we had 3 waves down, this is a 4th wave bounce, and a 5th wave to new lows on the move is next. Again, early in the week will be key in my opinion.
Here are two charts. One shows the Weekly SP 500 pattern and prior pivot points where downtrends halted and reversed. In each case the candlestick pattern for the week was inside and above the prior weeks lows and closed higher (White Candlesticks). This also happened this past week, but I again would like to see higher closing levels early in the week to confirm.
The other chart is a daily chart showing the 1330 barrier we would like to see crossed to avoid a rising bearish wedge pattern.
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David Banister
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