The Crude Oil Trader

Wednesday, July 25, 2012

Offshore Oil Expansion Passes U.S. House as Obama Considers Veto

How To Position Yourself for a 10 Year Pattern Breakout

The Republican led U.S. House of Representatives passed legislation opening the California and Virginia coasts for offshore oil drilling, defying a presidential veto threat.

The measure, if approved by the Senate, would replace President Barack Obama’s 2012-2017 leasing plan, almost doubling total sales to 29 from 15 and speeding auctions off the north coast of Alaska.

“We can do better than the president’s proposed plan, and our nation deserves better,” said Representative Doc Hastings, a Washington Republican and bill sponsor. “By passing this bill, we are standing up for American energy and American jobs and moving our country forward.”

Republicans and the American Petroleum Institute, the largest trade group representing the energy industry, criticized Obama for limiting access to offshore resources after the record 2010 spill at a BP Plc (BP) well in the Gulf of Mexico.

The administration “strongly opposes” the measure and senior Obama advisers would recommend a veto, according to a July 23 statement of administration policy. The Senate, where Democrats have a majority, doesn’t plan to take up similar legislation.

The Interior Department has held two auctions for drilling leases since BP’s Macondo well blow out, killing 11 workers and spewing about 4.9 million barrels of oil into the Gulf of Mexico.

In an auction last month, Royal Dutch Shell Plc (RDSA) offered $406.6 million, or 24 percent of all winning bids, to drill in the central Gulf of Mexico, followed by Statoil ASA (STO) with $333.3 million, the Interior Department said June 20.

Chevron Corp., Exxon Mobil Corp., Apache Corp., LLOG Exploration Offshore LLC, Stone Energy Corp., Noble Energy Inc. and ConocoPhillips were among companies submitting winning bids, according to a list posted June 20 on the Interior Department website.

The bill is H.R. 6082.

Posted courtesy of Bloomberg News and Katarzyna Klimasinska. Katarzyna can be reached at kklimasinska@bloomberg.net

Monthly Long Term Chart Analysis & Thoughts

Tuesday, July 24, 2012

How To Position Yourself for a 10 Year Pattern Breakout

As mentioned last Friday just before things took a dive on the weekend, a look at the major market indices did not look promising. If we take an even longer term look and examine the monthly charts we can see that The S&P 500 as well as the Dow Jones have been approaching multi decade rising channel resistance lines. Further, they also appear to be forming bearish rising wedge patterns.

Monthly Long Term Chart Analysis & Thoughts....

As many of my longer term subscribers can attest to, I always preach that technical analysis is one part art and one part science: you can never be completely certain on what the outcome of a pattern is going to be. However, we can use historical analysis to make better investments. The great American Novelist Mark Twain probably said it best in that “history does not repeat itself, but it rhymes”. Regarding a rising wedge pattern, we know that roughly two thirds of the time they will break to the downside. This also means that one third of the time they break to the upside.

In accomplishing our goal of capital growth we must do a number of things. We must make returns on our investments, we must protect our investments, and we must limit our losses. While all three aspects work in tandem with each other, there are times when focus must be allocated to one specific approach.

Regarding the current technical setup, I’m not so focused on the 67% chance that these wedges will break to the downside, but more so the impact of each outcome on the average Joe’s portfolio and mom and pop businesses. The S&P 500 and the Dow are approaching long term resistance lines that have been in place for decades. If we do break to the downside, which I suspect we will, there could be a very significant sell off with consequences that no one can predict at this point though I mention some things in the chart above. Alternatively, there is significant overhead resistance in the various indices, and I don’t believe an upside break would be too monumental.

That being said, I always like to keep an open outlook and wait for the right opportunity. I’m trying to think of scenarios that would prelude further upside action and I really am not coming up with much. As evidenced by the completion of the recent 5 wave uptrend on the S&P that coincided nicely with the various quantitative easing policies, Ben Bernanke and the fed have had less and less impact. I truly can’t see many fiscal developments that would prompt any significant bullish action.

The only scenario I really think that could pump up equities is a series of positive earnings announcements. A lot of expectations, earnings numbers, guidance, etc… have been revised downwards over the last couple of quarters, so there is the opportunity for some positive surprises that could lead to some bullish price action. In absence of such a scenario, I really can’t think of much else that would prompt a run up.

Look at these charts of positive and negative earnings surprises… and the dates and remember what happened following this negative data....

Positive Earnings Surprise

Negative Earnings Surprise

That being said, I am recommending two courses of action. For those steadfast bulls, lock in some profits and/or buy some protection. Missing out on some of the upside is a lot better than losing some of the gains you have fought so hard for over the past couple of years. For the more aggressive traders and investors, start following my updates a little more regularly as I foresee many shorting opportunities coming up in the future. As many of you know, sell offs are often quick and abrupt, and timing is extremely important when playing the downside.

Further, trading could get very volatile in the near future. Historically, and even more so looking forward as August and September have been very costly for the average investor. Our focus will be in taking the highest probability trades that offer the best risk to reward scenarios. There will be times when we miss trades, and times when they’re not timed perfectly. But, as those who have been with me for a while can attest to, patience pays off in the long run....

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Chris Vermeulen

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After Keystone Pipeline Failure, Canada Running to China for Crude Oil Deals

After 1949 when the Communists defeated the Nationalists for control of China, the mournful refrain from Washington, D.C. was “Who Lost China?” This arrogant display of superpower Cold War finger pointing ended with a number of careers destroyed and an unfair smear on the U.S. State Department that in some ways has never been entirely eradicated.

In today’s highly charged political climate, it will come as no surprise when some U.S. politicians come down hard on the Obama Administration for what will no doubt be described as driving Canada’s energy sector into the arms of China:

Cnooc Ltd. (883)’s $15.1 billion cash takeover bid for Nexen Inc. (NXY) signals a Canadian shift toward China and away from the U.S. as the nation’s traditional oil and natural gas partner and main export market.

Canada’s oil sands reserves, the third-largest recoverable crude deposits in the world, were developed in part by U.S. money as companies such as California’s Richfield Oil Corp. brought technology to extract bitumen from boreal peat bogs half a century ago. Now, for the first time, a Chinese company will own and operate oil sands crude production as well as Nexen’s shale gas assets in British Columbia, along with leases in other parts of the world.

Chinese oil producers have turned more frequently to Canada after political opposition in the U.S. derailed Cnooc’s $18.5 billion bid for Unocal Corp. in 2005, and after TransCanada Corp. (TRP)’s Keystone XL pipeline route south to Texas was blocked by President Barack Obama’s administration last year.

The Nexen deal is important for two reasons. First, it potentially represents some absolution for CNOOC, which is best known in foreign investment circles as the company which botched the 2005 U.S. UNOCAL takeover, not taking into account American politics and the need for a public relations strategy. As the Nexen deal will require regulatory approval in several jurisdictions, we will see what lessons CNOOC has learned from the failed UNOCAL bid.

Second, as Bloomberg points out, the deal represents a further shift by Canada away from the U.S. towards China. Another deal involving Sinopec and Talisman Energy was announced yesterday as well, and there have been other recent transactions, including CNOOC’s takeover of Nexen partner Opti Canada.

Why is this happening? Read the entire article > "After Keystone, Canada Running to China for Oil Deals"

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First Offshore Sale Under 2012-2017 Leasing Program Announced

Financial Market Forecast is Looking Bleak

The U.S. Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (BOEM) will offer over 20 million acres offshore Texas as part of the Western Gulf of Mexico Lease Sale 229, Secretary of the Interior Ken Salazar and Bureau of Ocean Energy Management Director Tommy P. Beaudreau announced Monday.

The sale, scheduled to take place in New Orleans on Wednesday, Nov. 28, will be the first offshore sale under the Obama administration's new Outer Continental Shelf Oil and Gas Leasing Program for 2012-2017.

"We are moving forward expeditiously to create jobs by implementing the President's offshore oil and gas strategy for the next five years, a smart plan that focuses on the areas that contain the overwhelming majority of the energy resources," Salazar said in a statement Monday.

"With comprehensive safety standards in place, this sale will help us to continue to responsibly grow America's energy economy and reduce our dependence on foreign oil," Salazar said.

Read the entire Rigzone article.

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Monday, July 23, 2012

Addison Armstrong: Where Are Oil Prices Now?

Financial Market Forecast is Looking Bleak

Mideast violence is pushing oil higher, while Europe's economy is bringing the commodity lower, reports CNBC's Sharon Epperson, with Addison Armstrong, Tradition Energy.

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Financial Market Forecast is Looking Bleak

From guest blogger Chris Vermeulen.....

This week could be a huge one for stocks and commodities. This morning the dollar index is taking another run at our weekly chart resistance level. If it can break out and start to rally this week then a possible 4-6 week sell off in stocks and commodities may be just starting.

And we know just how we are going to play it when it does!

Watch the morning video or at least the last 4 minutes where I cover the SP500 intraday and daily chart which shows the main cycles. The video clearly explains where the market seems to be trading in terms of cycles and what we should expect this week and in the coming month.

Read and watch Chris' > "Financial Market Forecast is Looking Bleak"

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Halliburton Announces Second Quarter 2012 Earnings [HAL]

Halliburton (NYSE:HAL) announced today that income from continuing operations for the second quarter of 2012 was $745 million, or $0.80 per diluted share. This compares to income from continuing operations for the first quarter of 2012 of $635 million, or $0.69 per diluted share. First quarter reported results included $300 million ($191 million, after tax, or $0.20 per diluted share) for an estimated loss contingency related to the Macondo well incident.

Halliburton’s consolidated revenue in the second quarter of 2012 was $7.2 billion, compared to $6.9 billion in the first quarter of 2012. Consolidated operating income was $1.2 billion in the second quarter of 2012, compared to $1.0 billion in the first quarter of 2012. All international regions experienced double digit percentage revenue and operating income growth from the first quarter of 2012. North America margins were negatively impacted, however, by rising costs and pricing pressure in production enhancement services.

“I am pleased with our second quarter results, which set a new revenue record for the total company and all three of our international regions,” commented Dave Lesar, chairman, president and chief executive officer.

"We continue to be successful in executing our strategy of market share growth while maintaining a focus on industry leading returns. From a global perspective, we achieved record revenues in eight of our product service lines, with four of them. Cementing, Completion Tools, Multi Chem, and Testing and Subsea, generating record operating income as well.

“Consolidated revenue for the second quarter was up over 5% sequentially. The international rig count was up 3% during the quarter, compared to a 15% increase for our international revenues. North America rig count decreased 17%, while our North America revenues were essentially flat compared to the first quarter. Key strategic market share gains in international operations, continued capacity additions, and strong utilization contributed to this outperformance.

Read the entire Halliburton earnings report

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Andrew Su: Crude Oil to Head Below $90 This Week

Andrew Su, CEO of Compass Global Markets says that WTI crude prices will head lower this week as speculation of more quantitative easing from the Federal Reserve eases.

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Sunday, July 22, 2012

Schlumberger [ticker SLB] Announces Second Quarter 2012 Results

Schlumberger Limited (NYSE:SLB) today reported second quarter 2012 revenue of $10.45 billion versus $9.92 billion in the first quarter of 2012, and $8.99 billion in the second quarter of 2011.

Income from continuing operations attributable to Schlumberger, excluding charges and credits, was $1.4 billion. An increase of 8% sequentially and 20% year on year. Diluted earnings per share from continuing operations, excluding charges and credits, was $1.05 versus $0.96 in the previous quarter, and $0.86 in the second quarter of 2011.

Following Schlumberger’s previously announced sale of both the Wilson distribution business and its equity ownership interest in CE Franklin Ltd. (CE Franklin), the Distribution segment has been reclassified to discontinued operations. All prior periods have been restated accordingly.

Schlumberger recorded charges of $0.02 per share in the second quarter and $0.01 per share in the first quarter of 2012 and $0.05 per share in the second quarter of 2011.

Oilfield Services revenue of $10.45 billion was up 5% sequentially and increased 16% year on year. Pretax segment operating income of $2.1 billion was up 8% sequentially and increased 20% year on year.

Schlumberger CEO Paal Kibsgaard commented, “Solid activity growth and a consistent focus on execution led to results that continued to strengthen in the second quarter.

Read the entire quarterly report

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Friday, July 20, 2012

Put Your Seatbelts On, It’s About To Get Bumpy!

It was just about a year ago today when the S&P was sitting at fresh highs and everyone was enjoying a rather upbeat summer. It was a nice summer, the markets were calm, and there was a surreal sense of optimism. Then, in the matter of a few days, things got real ugly, real quickly.

Well, it doesn’t seem like too much has changed since then. We’ve had mixed earnings reports, ever evolving worries in Europe, and the always looming fiscal mess in the U.S. Once again, are we in the calm before the storm?

It looks like things in Europe may start to heat up again. Riots turned violent again in Spain as protestors took to the street over austerity measures. With seemingly no resolution, a sinking tourism industry in the PIGS, and a typically hot summer August on its way, all signs point to further turmoil.

Technically, we’re currently seeing a number of bearish indicators setting up in the S&P and other markets. First, on the weekly chart of the SP500 Futures we can see what appears to be a bear flag formation developing. Note the recent rise in price since the beginning of June on decreasing volume.

Weekly SP500 Futures Chart Patterns

Daily Chart Elliott Wave Count For SP500

A second look at the S&P daily illustrates a down trend and 5 wave count bounce in the market, both are currently pointing to lower prices.

>> Completion of two intermediate cycles within longer term 5 wave pattern

>> Downwards wave one from April until beginning of June followed by wave 2 correction from June until present.

The wave two correction typically proceeds the longest wave, wave three, which is pointing towards a large move down (Note that in the first shorter term cycle the downwards wave three was the longest by far. We expect the same to be repeated in the longer term cycle.)

SP500 BIG PICTURE Wave Count

A look at the longer term view once again using the weekly chart, again supports our argument for a major correction. We have just completed a 5 wave pattern since the 2009 lows, and it is looking more like a big pull back is due. Remember most major trends end after the fifth wave.

Copper Weekly Chart Patterns

If we take a look at the copper ETF, “JJC”, we are provided with further justification. Copper is often referred to as “Dr.Copper” due to its industrial application and is known to be a leading indicator for equity markets. Copper has significantly underperformed equity markets and is likely leading the next move down. A look at the weekly chart which points to a rather dismal outlook. There is a major head and shoulder patterns developing.

Major Market Pattern Analysis Conclusion:

Last summer turned into a bloodbath with nothing but red candlesticks taking stocks and commodities sharply lower. If you haven’t already, it’s time to lock in some profits. Short, intermediate, and long term cycles are pointing down, and the increasingly bearish technical developments cannot be ignored. We’ll be looking at entering multiple shorts potentially in the very near future once/if setups present themselves.

Buckle up and stay tune for more....