Oil Market Absorbs Bearish DOE Report, Closes Higher

Crude oil closed slightly higher on Wednesday after the market absorbed today's bearish DOE stocks report. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

If September extends the rally off July's low, the reaction high crossing at 74.25 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 65.76 would confirm that a short term top has been posted.

First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 72.20
Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 74.25

First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 68.54
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 65.76

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Natural gas closed higher on Wednesday as it extends this week's rally. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that additional strength is possible near term.

If September extends the rally off July's low, June's high crossing at 4.716 is the next upside target.

First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 4.16
Second resistance is June's high crossing at 4.72

First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 3.81
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 3.74

How to Use Money Management Stops Effectively

The U.S. Dollar closed lower on Wednesday as it extends this month's decline below trading range support crossing at 78.83. The mid range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term.

If September extends this month's decline, weekly support crossing at 75.73 is the next downside target. Closes above last Wednesday's high crossing at 79.81 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted.

First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 78.65
Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 79.15

First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 77.55
Second support is weekly support crossing at 75.73

Crude Oil Rises After Report Shows U.S. Fuel Demand Increase

Crude oil rose after a U.S. government report showed that fuel supplies dropped as consumption increased to the highest level since February. Fuel demand climbed 3.1 percent to 19.3 million barrels a day last week, the highest since the week ended Feb. 27, the Energy Department said today. Supplies of distillate fuel, a category that includes heating oil and diesel, fell 1.14 million barrels to 161.5 million. Gasoline stockpiles declined and crude oil inventories climbed. “The market is getting support from the demand number, particularly the increase in distillate demand,” said Gene McGillian, an analyst and broker at Tradition Energy in Stamford, Connecticut.....Complete Story

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The Psychology of Commodity Price Movement

From guest blogger Adam Hewison...

The price of a futures contract is the result of a decision on the part of both a buyer and a seller. The buyer believes prices will go higher; the seller feels prices will decline. These decisions are represented by a trade at an exact price.

Once the buyer and seller make their trade, their influence in the market is spent except for the opposite reaction they will ultimately have when they close the trade. Thus, there are two aspects to every trade: 1) each trade must ultimately have an opposite reaction on the market, and 2) the trade will influence other traders.

The price of a futures contract is the result of a decision on the part of both a buyer and a seller. The buyer believes prices will go higher; the seller feels prices will decline. These decisions are represented by a trade at an exact price.

Once the buyer and seller make their trade, their influence in the market is spent except for the opposite reaction they will ultimately have when they close the trade. Thus, there are two aspects to every trade: 1) each trade must ultimately have an opposite reaction on the market, and 2) the trade will influence other traders.....Read Complete Article

Natural Gas ETF Trading

Natural gas has taken almost everyone’s money that I have talked to, which means it should be bottoming soon.

Have you ever bought a stock, watched it tick higher and all of a sudden see prices drop taking out your stop order or selling down to a point here you cannot take the pain making you exit for a loss. Only to see prices reverse and move in the direction of the trade you just exited but this time without you!

If this happens then not only is your trading strategy/model needing some tweaking but you also do not understand how the markets REALLY work. The floor traders (market makers) are taking your money and it’s as easy as taking money from a baby. There are tricks the market makers do on a daily basis with stocks, commodities etc… in order to make as much money as possible off the little uneducated trader. I will be sending out a special report about this in the next few weeks.

Oil Falls on Supply Report

Crude oil futures continued falling this morning after the U.S. Energy Department posted stockpile reports. September crude oil for fell 81 cents, or 1.1 percent, to $70.61 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Oil traded at $70.73 before the release of the report out of Washingtonat 10:30 a.m.

World Oil Traders Look For Cue From U.S. Economy

Crude oil was lower due to profit taking overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off July's low. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging but are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

If September extends the rally, the reaction high crossing at 74.25 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 65.72 would confirm that a short term top has been posted.

Crude oil pivot point, our line in the sand for Wednesday is 71.31

First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 72.20
Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 74.25

First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 68.47
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 65.72

How To Spot Winning Futures....Watch Video NOW

Natural gas was lower due to profit taking overnight as it consolidates some of Monday's rally. Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 4.045 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted while opening the door for a larger degree rebound during the first half of August.

If September renews last week's decline, July's low crossing at 3.366 is the next downside target.

Wednesday's pivot point for Wednesday is 3.97

First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 4.16
Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 4.72

First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 3.80
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 3.73

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Profit-Taking Seen In Risky Assets As Rallies Look Overdone

Massive profit taking is seen after crude oil surged above 72 as the rally over the past 3 days was mainly driven by strong macro economic data and robust sentiment. WTI crude oil is currently trading at 70.5, down $1 from yesterday's close. There have been heated debates on the impact of high oil price on economic growth. Fatih Birol of the International Energy Agency, told the press that prices higher than $70/bbl would hurt recovery. The Chief Economist said that 'if we see prices go much higher than that, we may see it slow down.....Complete Story

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Big Oil Speculator Defends Practice in Washington

John Hyland's funds control billions of dollars that flow in and out of energy markets, making him one of the biggest oil speculators in the world and also one of the biggest potential targets for federal regulators. The 50 year old Californian has been asked to appear before the Commodity Futures Trading Commission on Wednesday, where he will say that he isn't the boogie man everyone's looking for. There is evidence that he may be right. "Five years ago, they might have blamed the oil companies,".....Complete Story

Can You Learn to Trade Crude Oil in 90 Seconds

Oil Prices Ease as Traders Expect Rise in Inventories

Crude oil posted an inside day with a lower close on Tuesday as it consolidated some of Monday's rally. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

If September extends the rally off July's low, the reaction high crossing at 74.25 is the next upside target. Closes below last Wednesday's low crossing at 62.70 would confirm that a short term top has been posted.

First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 72.20
Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 74.25

First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 67.88
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 65.22

How to Use Money Management Stops Effectively

Natural gas posted an inside day with a lower close on Tuesday as it consolidates some of Monday's rally. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bullish signaling that additional strength is possible near term.

If September extends the rally off July's low, June's high crossing at 4.716 is the next upside target.

First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 4.16
Second resistance is June's high crossing at 4.72

First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 3.79
Second support is last Wednesday's low crossing at 3.46

Fundamental Analysis For Energy Market

Black gold markets continue their rally as economic data from the first and second biggest oil consumer's, the United States and China regarding the manufacturing sector which aroused anticipations in the markets that the worst of this global recession is over. With the manufacturing sector performing better now, this demand that oil demand would start increasing and this attracted investors to oil markets as they seek potential in profits. The contract gained $2.13 closing at $71.58 while recording a high of $72.20 per barrel.....Complete Story

Colorado State Slightly Lowers '09 Atlantic Hurricane Forecast

Colorado State University hurricane researchers Tuesday revised their 2009 Atlantic hurricane forecast slightly lower. The researchers now expect 10 named storms and four hurricanes in the Atlantic basin between June 1 and Nov. 30. Two of the hurricanes are expected to be major, with sustained winds of 111 miles per hour or greater. The research team had previously forecast 11 named storms and five hurricanes, two of them major. The long term average hurricane season sees 9.6 named storms, 5.9 hurricanes and 2.3 major hurricanes.....Complete Story

Oil Fluctuates as U.S. Incomes Drop, Existing Home Sales Gain

Crude oil fluctuated along with equities after reports showed that U.S. personal incomes dropped in June and the number of contracts to buy previously owned homes increased. Oil rebounded from the day’s lows after the National Association of Realtors said there was a 3.6 percent gain in the index of signed purchase agreements, or pending home resales. Oil slipped as much as 2 percent earlier today after the Commerce Department said that personal incomes tumbled 1.3 percent, the most in four years. Yesterday, futures rose $2.13, or 3.1 percent, to $71.58, the highest settlement since June 12.....Complete Story

How to Use Money Management Stops Effectively

New Video: Fibonacci Analysis of Gold and Crude Oil

You may have heard about Fibonacci, the man who discovered a set of numbers which have been found to have a major affect on the market. So who is this Fibonacci fellow and why are his findings so important in the market place?

The mathematical findings by this thirteenth century Italian man has yielded a useful tool which is used in technical analysis and by scientists in a large array of fields.

In our new short video, I will look at gold and also the crude oil market using MarketClub’s Fibonacci tool. I think you will be surprised and shocked at just how accurate and up to date this dead mathematician’s work is in today’s markets.



This is such an important video that we only want to leave it online for a short time. We urge you to take 4 minutes and learn the Fibonacci secret to the markets.

There is no need to register for this video and of course you can watch it with our compliments, but you must act today otherwise you risk missing out on this key element to the market.

Just Click Here to Watch The Video!

Oil Falls From Seven Week High on Concern Recent Gains Overdone

Crude oil fell from a seven week high on speculation that gains of 13 percent in the past three days weren’t supported by an improvement in demand. Crude stockpiles in the U.S., the world’s biggest energy consumer, probably increased for a second week, according to a Bloomberg News survey before tomorrow’s Energy Department report. Oil futures declined as equity indexes slipped in Europe, where the Stoxx 600 dropped 0.9 percent. “The actual situation in the oil market doesn’t justify levels about $70,” said Hannes Loacker.....Complete Story

Oil, Natural Gas Lower Heading Into Tuesday's Trading

Crude oil was lower due to profit taking overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off July's low. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging but are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

If September extends the rally, the reaction high crossing at 74.25 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 65.18 would confirm that a short term top has been posted.

Tuesday's daily pivot point, our line in the sand is 70.88. Our weekly pivot point is 67.31.

First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 72.20
Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 74.25

First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 67.81
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 65.18

Futures Prices in your In box!

Natural gas was lower due to profit taking overnight as it consolidates some of Monday's rally. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 4.045 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted while opening the door for a larger degree rebound during the first half of August.

If September renews last week's decline, July's low crossing at 3.366 is the next downside target.

The natural gas pivot point for Tuesday is 3.92 with the weekly pivot point at 3.68.

First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 4.16
Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 4.72

First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 3.79
Second support is last Wednesday's low crossing at 3.46

Where is Oil Headed For Tuesday

CNBC's Sharon Epperson discusses they day's activity in the commodities markets, and looks ahead to where oil is likely headed tomorrow.

Crude Oil, Natural Gas Show Near Term Strength

Crude oil closed higher on Monday as it extends the rally off July's low. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Today's rally has turned stochastics and the RSI neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

If September extends today's rally, the reaction high crossing at 74.25 is the next upside target. Closes below last Wednesday's low crossing at 62.70 would confirm that a short term top has been posted.

First resistance is today's high crossing at 72.20
Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 74.25

First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 67.30
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 64.84

FREE trade school video "How Far Can the Dollar Fall"

Natural gas closed sharply higher on Monday as it extends last Thursday's rally. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that additional strength is possible near term.

If September extends the rally off July's low, June's high crossing at 4.716 is the next upside target.

First resistance is today's high crossing at 4.16
Second resistance is June's high crossing at 4.72

First support is last Wednesday's low crossing at 3.46
Second support is July's low crossing at 3.23

Our favorite Indicator for inflation....and it’s not gold.

Oil Climbs Above $72, Gasoline Jumps on Prospect of Demand Gain

Crude oil rose above $72 a barrel for the first time in a month and gasoline surged as increasing industrial activity bolstered optimism that fuel consumption will rebound. Oil gained as much as 3.9 percent after reports showed that U.S. manufacturing shrank at the slowest pace in 11 months and factory output in China advanced to the highest level in almost a year. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index climbed above 1,000 for the first time since November, also bolstering optimism that raw material demand and prices will increase.....Complete Story

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Crude Oil Daily Technical Outlook from Oil N' Gold

Crude oil's rise from 62.70 extends further today and breaches 70 level. At this point, intraday bias remains on the upside as long as 68.79 minor support holds. Whole rise from 58.32 is expected to continue to key cluster level at 73.38 with 100% projection of 58.32 to 68.99 from 62.7 at 73.36. On the downside, below 68.79 will indicate that an intraday top is in place and bring consolidation. But break of 62.70 support is needed to indicate that rise from 58.32 has completed. Otherwise, short term outlook will remain bullish....Complete Story

Marathon Oil Profit Falls 47% as Energy Prices Drop

Marathon Oil Corp., the fourth largest U.S. energy company, said second quarter profit fell 47 percent after the recession sapped fuel demand, spurring a collapse in petroleum prices. Net income dropped to $413 million, or 58 cents a share, from $774 million, or $1.08, a year earlier, Houston based Marathon said today in a statement. Excluding such items as gains on asset sales, per share profit was 35 cents, 18 cents below the average of 17 analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg. Marathon was paid an average of $55.49 per barrel of oil, down by more than half from a year earlier, and its average natural gas price tumbled 57 percent. Marathon follows Exxon Mobil Corp., Chevron Corp. and ConocoPhillips, the biggest U.S. oil companies, in reporting declines in second-quarter profits.....Complete Story

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