ALERT: Daily Trade Triangle Buy Signal For Spot Gold

The MarketClub "Trade Triangle" technology has flashed a buy signal on Spot Gold this evening at $1,065.53.

To learn more about Trade Triangle alerts just visit the MarketClub.

Are You Laughing or Crying About The Markets?

There’s no question about it, the markets can be very difficult at times. On the other hand, you can laugh all the way to the bank if you approach the markets in a systematic way.

I was looking once again at the S&P 500 and many people have said the market has gone up, not on the fundamentals, but on the perception that things are going to be better. Perception is one of the most powerful elements of the market. I would say that perception trumps both the fundamental and technical.

So what’s going to happen to the S&P 500? Is it going to continue going higher for the rest of the year, or are we close to a turning point?

In our new short video, we outline several key areas that this market is fast approaching. These levels could be the Achilles heel for this market and potentially set the direction for the rest of the year.

Just Click Here to watch the video and as always, the videos are free to watch and there is no need to register.

Please take a minute to leave a comment and let us know what you think of the video and the direction of the SP 500.

Phil Flynn's Energy Report: Dollars Deficits and Oil

A breakout in oil and what do you get, another day older and deeper in debt, like about 1.42 trillion dollars deep. Now it does not get much deeper than that. The US Budget deficit screams while politicians fight over ways to spend more money and the dollar loses ground and respect. 1.42 trillion dollars and the oil bulls continues to breathe easy up in this new atmosphere as a breakout to the upside has the bulls firmly in control.

Just how much is 1.42 trillion dollars? Bloomberg News reports that $1.42 trillion is more than the total national debt for the first 200 years of the Republic, more than the entire economy of India, almost as much as Canada's, and more than $4,700 for every man, woman and child in the United States. Is it any wonder why the Canadian dollar is almost trading at par with the dollar? The Federal budget deficit for 2009, more than three times the most red ink ever amassed and the highest as a perercentage of GDP since the Second World War.....Read the entire article.

Crude Oil Rises to One Year High Above $79 as Equities Increase

Crude oil rose to a one year high as advancing global equities bolstered confidence that an economic recovery will lift fuel consumption. Oil topped $79 a barrel, extending its longest winning streak in two years, as U.S. stocks increased, contributing to an advance in equities from Shanghai to London. The dollar weakened, boosting the appeal of commodities as an alternative investment. “As long as the dollar stays down and equities stay up, that’s a good enough reason to buy crude,” said Brad Samples, a commodity analyst for Summit Energy Inc. in Louisville, Kentucky.

Crude oil for November delivery rose 28 cents, or 0.4 percent, to $78.81 a barrel at 11:45 a.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Earlier, prices touched $79.05 a barrel, the highest level since Oct. 15, 2008. The November contract expires tomorrow. The more widely held December contract added 18 cents to $79.20 a barrel. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index rose 0.9 percent to 1,097.84 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 100.67 points, or 1 percent, to 10,096.58 at 11:46 a.m. in New York.....read the entire article.

Crude Oil Rises for Eighth Day on Speculation Demand Recovering

Crude oil climbed above $79 a barrel in New York for the first time in a year, rising for an eighth day on speculation demand will increase as the global economy recovers from recession. A report today may show confidence among home builders in the U.S., the world’s largest oil consumer, is at its highest in 17 months, according to economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. There is no shortage of oil and OPEC won’t increase output to quell price gains driven by speculators, Secretary General Abdalla El-Badri told the Wall Street Journal on Oct. 16.

“The economic numbers are looking better and a lot of that seems to have already been priced in,” said Ben Westmore, energy and minerals economist at National Australia Bank Ltd. in Melbourne. “There is still a big question mark over how much of that, especially in the U.S. and China, is being driven by the stimulus packages.”
Crude oil for November delivery rose as much as 52 cents, or 0.7 percent, to $79.05 a barrel in after hours electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange, the highest since Oct. 15 2008.....Read the entire article.

USO and UNG Technical Analysis with Idan Koren

From guest analyst Idan Koren....

Today we look at the USO and UNG and try to decipher where they are headed and what possible trades could be on the table. We believe that the USO is the reason why the S&P remains up while other stocks have potentially topped already.

Natural Gas: The Russians Are Coming!

The new trading desk in North America for Gazprom, the largest producer of natural gas in the world, sits halfway up the 56 story Bank of America tower in the heart of the America's energy capital. So far, the office, which started trading contracts last week for the first time, is quiet. That won't last. "Our target for volume growth is pretty strong," says John Hattenberger, president of Gazprom Marketing & Trading USA, an arm of the Russian behemoth that claims 17% of the world’s natural gas reserves. "If we could hit 5% [of the U.S. market] in the next five years, that would be about right. In 10 years, I think we could get to 10%." U.S. demand for natural gas is about 60 billion cubic feet a day.

Gazprom for years has been a dominant player in the natural gas market through the use and control of pipelines. It exports gas to more than 30 countries and meets a quarter of Europe’s needs. The U.S. market, however, the largest in the world, has been too far away for Gazprom to reach. Pricey new liquefied natural gas developments, which allow for worldwide shipping, should change all that. Global LNG demand is expected to double by 2020. "LNG is a strategic way for Gazprom to get into markets that it can’t access by pipeline," says Hattenberger. "It makes a lot of sense for the world’s largest gas company to bring gas to the world’s largest gas market and it has to be done through LNG".....Read the entire article.

Halliburton Profit Drops Less Than Analysts Estimated

Halliburton Co.’s third-quarter profit dropped less than analysts estimated on projects the world’s second largest oilfield services provider is working on outside of North America. Net income fell to $262 million, or 29 cents a share, from $672 million, or 74 cents, in the third quarter of 2008, Houston based Halliburton said today in a statement. Excluding costs for job cuts, profit was 31 cents a share, 5 cents higher than the average of 24 analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg.

Oil futures in New York averaged $68.24 a barrel in the third quarter, 42 percent lower than a year earlier. Crude climbed from $59.79 in the second quarter. Operating profit from a region that includes Africa, Europe and the former Soviet Union fell 2 percent, and income declined 16 percent in the Middle East and Asia. The drop in North America was 93 percent. “I thought that the numbers in the Middle East and Europe came in stronger than I expected, both in terms of revenues and margins,” said Mark Brown, a senior analyst at Pritchard Capital in New York who has a “buy” rating on Halliburton shares and owns none. “I thought that was a good sign for Halliburton”.....Read the entire article

Peak Oil Will Influence The Shape of Our Future World

We are currently reading another interesting book dealing with the global economy and cheap oil that combined to revolutionize the world's transportation business and altered the history of our economic development. The book is called The Box: "How the Shipping Container Made the World Smaller and the World Economy Bigger" by Marc Levinson. This book is essentially a history of the evolution of the mundane shipping container (just a large metal box) that brings us exotic foods and inexpensive consumer products from around the world. Much like the books, Cod: "A Biography of the Fish That Changed the World" and "Salt: A World History", both by Mark Kurlansky that document the world altering impact of simple things like a fish and grains of a chemical product, the shipping container is a remarkably simple device that also changed the course of the world's economy.

If oil is no longer available, or cheap, will developed economies be capable of getting cheap foodstuffs and industrial and consumer products that have contributed so much to their economic development and high living standards? The answer from Messrs. Rubin and Steiner is: No!

The two authors have the same theme, how Americans will have to give up traveling, abandon eating foods that come from great distances away and find new ways to work. These books, listed on the non fiction book lists, amaze me because they truly are fictional works. Admittedly they are based on reasonable premises, but they are largely speculation about how the world of the future will unfold.....read the entire article.

Phil Flynn: NO MAS!

No Mas, refiners wave the white flag as the Energy Information Agency report that US refinery runs plunge 10% to 80.5 percent! That puts refinery runs below the five year average of 81.4 percent causing a steep drop in gasoline and drop in distillates setting off a firestorm of buying in the petroleum complex. Keep in mind that that this is a five year average that includes two major hurricane related shut downs. In other words refiners are running like they were hit by a hurricane and if you look at their margins for profit for doing business they kind of were. His was the the third lowest run rate of the last 10 years, excluding 2005 and 2002.

Refining profit margins have fallen 83% in the last nine weeks a drop that has refiners just shutting down. If you can’t make a profit making a product why bother. And what is more it is likely that if demand and margins do not pick up soon we could see further cuts in runs and also in supply. The cuts supported crude as the market thinks that refiners will focus on only the highest yielding crude oil not wasting effort on the lower yielding stuff.....read the entire article.

Bloomberg Analysis: Oil May Breach 200 Week Average, Test $85

Crude oil is poised to breach technical resistance at its 200 week moving average and rally to $85 a barrel, according to technical analysis by Citi FX. Oil for November delivery touched a one year high of $77.97 a barrel yesterday, positioning it to breach the 200 week moving average at the close of today’s trading, said Tom Fitzpatrick, chief technical analyst at Citi FX, part of Citigroup Capital Markets in New York. The average last week was $74.98 a barrel.

“If that happens, we think a move to at least $85 could be in the cards with some interim resistance just above $80,” Fitzpatrick said. Such a move “is likely to confirm the directional bias for the rest of this year.” Oil last crossed the 200 week moving average a year ago on its way down to $32.40 in December, the lowest price since February 2004. Before that, crude spent more than five years above the average as it rallied to a record $147.27 a barrel in July 2008.....read the entire article.

Crude Oil and Natural Gas Daily Technical Outlook For Friday Morning

Nymex Crude Oil (CL)
Crude oil's rally extends further to as high as 78.17 before retreating mildly. At this point, intraday bias remains on the upside and further rise should be seen to next target of 100% projection of 58.32 to 75 from 65.05 at 81.72 next. On the downside, below 74.57 will turn intraday outlook neutral first. But downside should be contained by 71.55 support and bring rally resumption.

In the bigger picture, medium term rise from 33.2 is still in progress and could extend further. Nevertheless, strong resistance should be seen in 76.77/90.24 fibo resistance zone (38.2% and 50% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2) to conclude the medium term rise finally. Hence, we'd look for sign of loss of momentum in the current rise. However, note that break of 65.05 is needed to indicate that crude oil has topped out. Otherwise, further rise is still in favor.

Nymex Natural Gas (NG)
While consolidation from 5.12 may extend further, note that with 4.351 support intact, we'd expect to consolidation to be relatively brief and maintain the short term bullish outlook. Above 4.75 minor resistance will flip intraday bias for 5.12 first. break will bring rally resumption to 38.2% retracement of 13.64 to 2.409 at 6.7 next. However, considering bearish divergence condition in 4 hours MACD, break of 4.351 will indicate that a short term top is formed and will bring deeper pull back instead.

In the bigger picture, medium term fall from 13.69 is treated as part of the long term consolidation pattern that started at 15.78 back in 2005. The whole consolidation might have completed at 2.409 after meeting 100% projection of 15.78 to 4.593 from 13.69 at 2.50. We'll prefer the bullish case as long 55 days EMA (now at 3.94 holds) and expect the current rise from 2.409 to extend further to 61.8% retracement of 13.64 to 2.409 at 9.38 in medium term.

What Really Caused The Oil Price to Collapse?

What really caused the oil price to collapse? Philip Treick says it’s not what everybody believes. Conventional thinking believes the oil price collapsed because of the dropping global demand from a world wide recession sparked by the US sub-prime fallout. Treick, founder and principal of Thermopolis Partners LLC, has a slightly different view. He explains how everything – the oil price collapse, the global economy collapse – started with an unannounced policy change in China towards its currency. More importantly, he uses his theory to tell investors what to look for in the coming months and years that will guide us in finding profits. His charts, reproduced below, provide a sharp image to back up his comments.

KS: Most people think the collapse in the US sub prime housing crisis caused the global recession. But you don’t. Why is that?

Treick: Well, I point out if you look at mortgage equity withdrawn in the United States – that peaked in late 2006. Identifying that point in time as the top of the credit cycle, our credit based economy had already started to contract prior to the collapse in oil and copper. So one can’t say that the credit contraction was the sole cause of this collapse in commodity prices, because it was already in full force. It definitely contributed to it, but it wasn’t the sole cause. Something else had to contribute. That something else was an unannounced change in currency policy out of China.....read the entire article, interview and charts.

New Video: The Perfect Portfolio for 10,000 or 10,000,000 Dollars

There is a saying which has been attributed to a fictional Chinese storyteller named Kai Lung and it goes like this, “May you live in interesting times”.

Well my friends, we do live in interesting times, very interesting times. With China holding the largest share of US debt, inflation just around the corner, and no light at the end of the tunnel for the unemployed - these are interesting times.

So what’s going to be the best plan of action for your money in the next three years? Is the value of your portfolio going to be cut in half, or is it going to double? I have my game plan in place, do you have yours?

Introducing “The Perfect Portfolio”

I’ve given a lot of thought as to what’s going to happen in the next three years. Specifically, what I am going to do with my own portfolio and my own money. I have scoped out several markets that I think are going to offer excellent opportunities, no matter what happens to the economy. Yes, you heard me right. No matter what happens to the economy, I believe that this “Perfect Portfolio” will work for you in the next 36 months whether you have 10,000 or 10,000,000 million dollars.

In this video I show you exactly the number of trades you would’ve made with the “Perfect Portfolio”.

We back tested the portfolio using our “Trade Triangle” technology for 42 months through some of the toughest, most difficult markets the world has ever seen. I think you will be pleasantly surprised at the results of these two portfolios.

Just Click Here for the "Perfect Portfolio".

Big Draw in Gas Supply Sends Energy Prices Jumping

Refineries that make gasoline and other fuels swiftly cut back on production last week, the government reported Thursday, sending energy prices jumping across the board. Energy markets had largely brushed off a winter weather forecast this week for major winter storms in the East and icy, cold conditions even between Atlanta and Dallas.

The Energy Information Administration, however, reported Thursday that gasoline in storage fell by more than 5 million barrels at a time when most energy experts expected supplies to grow yet again. Refiners have been idling facilities because of a lack of demand at the same time that others have been shut down for routine maintenance. Earlier Thursday, the dollar hit a 52 week low and the surprise report on gasoline may have led some people to believe supplies are growing tight, said oil analyst Tom Kloza said.

"The ignition switch for a rally got hit twice today," Kloza said. For consumers, that may mean a slight drift upward in pump prices but not much, experts believe.
Crude and gasoline prices have remained relatively stable for months with no clear signs of an economic rebound. Prices began to rise late last week when Alcoa, which kicks off the U.S. earning season, reported that it had returned to profitability after three straight quarterly losses.....read the entire article

Jeff Rubin: NOW is Time to Buy Oil

Fmr. CIBC World Markets Chief Economist Jeff Rubin on oil prices.

Oil Rises After Report Shows Unexpected Drop in Gasoline Supply

Crude oil futures rose after a U.S. government report showed an unexpected decline in supplies of gasoline. Gasoline inventories dropped 5.23 million barrels to 209.2 million in the week ended Oct. 9, the Energy Department said today in a weekly report. Stockpiles were forecast to increase by 1.13 million, according to the median of analyst estimates in a Bloomberg News survey.

Inventories of crude oil rose 334,000 barrels to 337.8 million, the department said. Supplies were forecast to increase by 1 million barrels. Crude oil for November delivery increased 76 cents, or 1 percent, to $75.94 a barrel at 11:07 a.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Oil traded at $75.26 a barrel before the release of the report at 11 a.m. in Washington.....read the entire article.

Crude Oil and Natural Gas Daily Technical Outlook

Nymex Crude Oil (CL)

Crude oil's rally extends to as high as 75.96 so far and intraday bias remains on the upside for the moment. Current rise is still expected to continue to 38.2% of 147.27 to 33.2 at 76.77 and break will target 80 psychological level next. On the downside, below 74.64 will turn intraday outlook neutral and bring retreat but downside should be contained by 70.74 support and bring rally resumption.

In the bigger picture, medium term rise from 33.2 is still in progress and could extend further. Nevertheless, strong resistance should be seen in 76.77/90.24 fibo resistance zone (38.2% and 50% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2) to conclude the medium term rise finally. On the downside, in case of pull back, break of 65.05 is needed to indicate that crude oil has topped out. Otherwise, further rise is still in favor.....crude oil charts.

Nymex Natural Gas (NG)

Natural gas' retreat from 5.12 is still in progress and intraday bias remains neutral for the moment. Some more consolidation could be seen but after all, short term outlook will remain bullish as long as 4.351 minor support holds. Above 5.120 will bring resumption of whole rise form 2.409 and should target 38.2% retracement of 13.64 to 2.409 at 6.7 next. However, considering bearish divergence condition in 4 hours MACD, break of 4.351 will indicate that a short term top is formed and will bring deeper pull back instead.

In the bigger picture, medium term fall from 13.69 is treated as part of the long term consolidation pattern that started at 15.78 back in 2005. The whole consolidation might have completed at 2.409 after meeting 100% projection of 15.78 to 4.593 from 13.69 at 2.50. We'll prefer the bullish case as long 55 days EMA (now at 3.94 holds) and expect the current rise from 2.409 to extend further to 61.8% retracement of 13.64 to 2.409 at 9.38 in medium term.....Natural Gas Charts.

Mid-Week UNG & USO Trading Charts

Commodities and stocks have been on fire the past two weeks and I think it just may be time for things to take a breather. While I continue to stay long, taking some money off the table to lock in profits is a safe play.

Just from a quick glance at the charts we can tell the odds are pointing to some type of pause or pullback in the coming days. I figure any day now we could see some profit taking.

Natural Gas ETF Trading – UNG
The Natural Gas ETF sure has given everyone a wild ride in the past 6 months. The bear market is still in place which can be seen on the daily chart. So far this week the price has broken down and trading at the $11 support level. This fund could generate a buy or sell signal with my trading model in the coming days so I am waiting for a clear entry and exit point before jumping on the gas wagon.


Crude Oil ETF Trading – USO
The Crude Oil ETF has broken above its resistance trend line this week but still struggling to move above the August high. Volume is declining while the price rises which is a bearish indicator. USO looks ready for some type of a pullback as it digests this breakout before moving higher.


Mid-Week ETF Trading Report
What does the general public hear and think about the stock market?
From recent emails, local financial news shows, family, friends etc… all I am hearing is how strong the market is. Indexes are making new yearly highs and company earnings are better than expected this quarter. Sounds like all we need to do is buy and life will be great!

Well in my opinion the market is the perfect tool for misguiding and frustrating the general public. All my indicators are telling me we need more of a correction before rallying much higher. The market (smart money) generally anticipates good and bad news several weeks if not a month in advance. So the question is:

Are company earnings already priced into the market?

Is all this positive market coverage getting the general public to buy up here at this possible market top? The answer is, only time will tell. No one knows for sure what the market is going to do but short term moves can be predicted with relatively high accuracy.

Don’t get me wrong, I am still bullish on the market but with all this good news becoming public information you have to wonder what is next. I am still long the market but trimming my positions to lock in profits and still stay in the game.

If you would like to receive Chris Vermeulen's free weekly trading analysis please visit his trading website The Gold and Oil Guy.

Oil Closes Near Session High, Hits New Seven Week High

Crude oil closed up $1.05 at $75.20 a barrel today. Prices closed nearer the session high today and hit a fresh seven week high. A lower U.S. dollar boosted crude oil again today. Crude bulls have the solid overall near term technical advantage. Prices are in a three week old uptrend on the daily bar chart.

Natural gas closed down 14.2 cents at $4.446 today. Prices again closed nearer the session low today. Bulls faded again today and need to show fresh power soon. The next upside price objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid technical resistance at the August high of $5.133.

Heating oil closed up 192 points at $1.9426 today. Prices closed nearer the session high today and hit another fresh six week high. Bulls have the near term technical advantage.

Get 10 Trading Lessons FREE....Get started right now!

Unleaded gasoline (RBOB) closed up 266 points at $1.8584 today. Prices closed nearer the session high today and hit a fresh four week high. Bulls have the near term technical advantage. The next upside price objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid technical resistance at the September high of $1.8736.

The U.S. dollar index closed down 54 points at 75.63 today. Prices closed nearer the session low today and hit another fresh contract low. Same story: Bears still have the solid overall near term technical advantage. Bulls' next upside price objective is to close prices above solid technical resistance at 78.00.