Crude Oil Daily Technical Outlook For Thursday

Crude oil is still staying in tight range as consolidations continues. Upside momentum is clearly diminishing with bearish divergence condition in 4 hours MACD. But still, another rise is in favor as long as 80.16 minor support holds. Current rally might still extend further for retesting 83.95 high. However, break of 80.16 minor support will argue that a short term top is already formed. In such case, deeper pull back should be seen to 38.2% retracement of 69.50 to 83.03 at 77.86 and below.

In the bigger picture, crude oil was supported above mentioned 68.59 key support and thus, there was no confirmation of medium term reversal. The strong rebound from 69.50 dampened our bearish view and argue that medium term rise from 33.2 might not be over yet. Nevertheless, as such rise from 33.2 is treated as a correction to whole decline from 147.27 only, even in case of another high above 83.95, we'd continue to expect strong resistance near to 50% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2 at 90.24 to bring reversal. On the downside, though, break of 69.50 support will now indicate that crude oil has topped out in medium term already and turn outlook bearish.....
Nymex Crude Oil Continuous Contract 4 Hours Chart


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Crude Oil Weekly Technical Outlook

Crude oil's rise from 69.50 extended further to as high as 80.10 last week and closed strongly at 79.81. The stronger than expected rebound and break of 78.04 resistance suggests that fall from 83.95 has finished with three waves down to 69.50 already. This in turn argues that 83.95 might not be the top yet. Initial bias remains on the upside this week and further rise could be seen to retest 83.95 first. On the downside, below 77.76 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral and bring retreat towards 4 hours 55 EMA (now at 76.24). However, note that break of 72.66 support is needed to indicate that rise from 69.50 has completed. Otherwise, another rise would be in favor.

In the bigger picture, crude oil was supported above mentioned 68.59 key support and thus, there was no confirmation of medium term reversal. The stronger rebound from 72.43 dampened our bearish view and argue that medium term rise from 33.2 might not be over yet. Nevertheless, as such rise from 33.2 is treated as a correction to whole decline from 147.27 only, even in case of another high above 83.95, we'd continue to expect strong resistance near to 50% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2 at 90.24 to bring reversal. On the downside, though, break of 72.43 support is now needed to indicate that crude oil has topped out.

In the long term picture, there is no change in the view that fall from 147.27 is part of the correction to the five wave sequence from 98 low of 10.65. While the rebound from 33.2 is strong and might continue, there is no solid evidence that suggest fall 147.27 is completed and we're still preferring the case that rebound from 33.2 is merely a corrective rise only. Having said that, strong resistance should be seen between 76.77/90.24 fibo resistance zone and bring reversal for another low below 33.2 before completing the whole correction from 147.27.....Nymex Crude Oil Continuous Contract 4 Hours Chart.


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Crude Oil Daily Technical Outlook For Friday

Crude oil's correction from 83.95 resumed and dropped to as low as 75.82 so far. While another fall could still be seen, downside is expected to be contained by 61.8% retracement of 68.59 to 83.95 at 74.46 and bring strong rebound. Above 78.25 minor resistance will flip intraday bias back to the upside for 83.95 resistance first. However, note that sustained trading below 74.46 fibo support will argue that rise from 68.59 has completed and will turn focus back to this key support level.

In the bigger picture, whole medium term rise from 33.2 is still in progress but after all, there is no change in the view that it's merely a correction to fall from 147.27. Therefore, we'd continue to look for reversal signal in case of another rise and as crude oil approaches 50% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2 at 90.24, which is close to 90 psychological level. On the downside, however, considering continuous bearish divergence condition in daily MACD, a break of 68.59 support will confirm that a medium term top is in place and will turn outlook bearish for a retest on 33.2 low as correction from 147.27 resumes.....Nymex Crude Oil Continuous Contract 4 Hours Chart.

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Crude Oil Technical Outlook For Tuesday

With 4 hours MACD crossed below signal line, an intraday top might be in place and bias is turned neutral for some consolidations. Nevertheless, we'd expect downside to be contained by 76.19 support and bring another rise. Current development indicates that choppy fall from 82.0 has completed at 68.59 already. Rise from there is expected to continue to retest this 82.0 resistance next.

In the bigger picture, the strong rebound from put crude oil back above 55 days EMA and dampens the bearish view that it has topped out at 33.2. We'll stay neutral for the moment with focus on 82.0 resistance. Break there will indicate that whole medium term rise from 33.2 is still in progress. Nevertheless, focus will remain on reversal signal as we'd expect such rise to conclude inside 76.77/90.24 fibo resistance zone.....Nymex Crude Oil Continuous Contract 4 Hours Chart.

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Crude Oil Weekly Technical Outlook

Crude oil's recovery from 68.58 extend further to as high as 74.69 last week and is probably still in progress. Further rise could still be seen initially this week. But after all, upside is expected to be limited by 61.8% retracement at 76.87 and bring resumption of the fall from 82.0. On the downside, below 71.21 will indicate that recovery from 68.58 has completed and will flip intraday bias for this support first. Break will target 65.05 key support next. However, decisive break of 76.87 fibo resistance will argue that fall from 82.0 has completed and will turn focus back to this resistance.

In the bigger picture, at this point, crude oil is still limited by 55 days EMA (now at 74.52) and hence, we're favoring the case that medium term rise from 33.2 has completed at 82.0 with bearish divergence condition in daily MACD. Another fall is expected after finishing the current recovery from 68.58 and a break there will target 58.32 cluster support (50% retracement of 33.2 to 82 at 57.60). Break there will confirm this bearish case and indicate that the down trend from 147.27 might be resuming for another low below 33.2. However, sustained trading above mentioned 76.87 will dampen this bearish view and argue that another high above 82.0 might be seen before crude oil tops in 76.77/90.24 fibo resistance zone

In the long term picture, there is no change in the view that fall from 147.27 is part of the correction to the five wave sequence from 98 low of 10.65. While the rebound from 33.2 is strong and might continue, there is no solid evidence that suggest fall 147.27 is completed and we're still preferring the case that rebound from 33.2 is merely a corrective rise only. Having said that strong resistance should be seen between 76.77/90.24 fibo resistance zone and bring reversal for another low below 33.2 before completing the whole correction from 147.27.....Nymex Crude Oil Continuous Contract 4 Hours Chart.


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Crude Oil Higher on Overnight Consolidation, Bears Maintain The Clear Advantage

Crude oil was slightly higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates some of this month's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term.

If January extends the decline off October's high, the 87% retracement level of this fall's rally crossing at 68.16 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 75.19 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted.

Tuesday's pivot point, our line in the sand is 69.44

First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 72.53
Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 75.19

First support is Monday's low crossing at 68.59
Second support is the 87% retracement level of this fall's rally crossing at 68.16

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Natural gas was higher overnight as it extends last week's rally. Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If January extends this month's rally, the 62% retracement level of the October-December decline crossing at 5.565 is the next upside target.

Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.916 would temper the near term bullish outlook in the market.

Natural gas pivot point for Tuesday is 5.311

First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 5.422
Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the October-December decline crossing at 5.565

First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 4.976
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.916

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The U.S. Dollar was higher overnight as it extends this month's rally and exceeded November's high crossing at 77.27. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but are neutral signaling that additional gains are possible near term.

If March extends this month's rally, the reaction high crossing at 77.81 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 75.83 would confirm that a short term top has been posted.

First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 77.33
Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 77.81

First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 76.29
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 75.83

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Crude Oil and Natural Gas Technical Outlook For Tuesday Morning

Nymex Crude Oil (CL)

With 4 hours MACD staying above signal line, some more sideway trading could be seen in crude oil. But such consolidation should be relatively brief. Below 68.59 will target 65.05 support next. Above 71.20 will bring stronger rebound to 4 hours 55 EMA (now at 72.30) and possibly above. But upside should be limited well below 79.04 resistance and bring fall resumption.

In the bigger picture, we're favoring the case that medium term rise from 33.2 has completed at 82.0 with bearish divergence condition in daily MACD. The break of medium term trend line support last week affirms this case and should pave the way to 58.32 cluster support (50% retracement of 33.2 to 82 at 57.60) for confirmation. As noted before, rise from 33.2 is treated as part of the correction pattern that started at 147.27. Firmed break of 58.32 support will argue that the down trend from 147.27 might be resuming for another low below 33.2. On the upside, break of 79.04 is needed to invalidate this view, otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.....Nymex Crude Oil Continuous Contract 4 Hours Chart.

Nymex Natural Gas (NG)

Further rise in Natural gas is still in favor with 4.837 support intact. Sustained trading above 5.318 will confirm that rise from 2.409 has resumed and should target 61.8% projection of 2.409 to 5.318 from 4.157 at 5.955 next. On the downside, through, a break below 4.837 support will indicate that recent consolidation is still in progress inside and another fall should be seen towards lower side of recent range near to 4.157. But after all, we'd expect downside to be contained there and bring an eventual upside breakout.

In the bigger picture, medium term fall from 13.69 is treated as part of the long term consolidation pattern that started at 15.78 back in 2005 and might have completed at 2.409 already. Rise from 2.409 should not be completed yet and we would continue to anticipate an upside breakout of the recent range of 4.157/5.138 eventually. Above 5.318 will target 38.2% retracement of 13.694 to 2.409 at 6.72 and beyond. Nevertheless, break of 4.157 support will dampen this bullish case and turn outlook mixed again.....Nymex Natural Gas Continuous Contract 4 Hours Chart.

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Crude Oil and Natural Gas Technical Outlook For Thursday Morning

Nymex Crude Oil (CL)

With 4 hours MACD crossed below signal line, intraday bias is turned neutral for the moment. With 80.51 resistance intact, the choppy fall from 82.0 is possibly still in progress. Below 75.18 minor support will will flip intraday bias back to the downside for trend line support at 70.97. Nevertheless, note that a break of 80.51 will indicate that choppy consolidations from 82.0 has completed already and the medium term rally could be resuming for 82.0 and beyond.

In the bigger picture, the lack of follow through selling and the choppy price actions from 82.0 so far dampen our bearish view. Instead, the corrective natural of the fall from 82.0 to 72.39 suggests that it's merely consolidation in the medium term rise. That is, rally from 33.2 is possibly not completed yet and a break of 80.51 will affirm this bullish case. Nevertheless, as we expect such rise to conclude inside resistance zone of 76.77/90.24 (38.2% and 50% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2), focus will remain on loss of momentum and reversal signal even in case of another rise.

Meanwhile, on the downside, a break of 72.39 low will firstly indicate that fall from 82.0 has resumed. Further break of trend line support at 70.97 will revive the case that crude oil has already completed the medium term rebound from 33.2 and bring deeper fall to 58.32 cluster support (50% retracement of 33.2 to 82 at 57.60) for confirmation.....Nymex Crude Oil Continuous Contract 4 Hours Chart.

Nymex Natural Gas (NG)

Outlook in natural gas remains unchanged. Recent price actions should be consolidations to rise from 2.409 only and hence, downside of the current fall is expected to be contained by 4.157 support. Also, we'd anticipate an upside breakout sooner or later after completing the consolidation. Above 5.318 will confirm that whole rebound from 2.409 has resumed and should target 61.8% projection of 2.409 to 5.318 from 4.157 at 5.955 next.

In the bigger picture, medium term fall from 13.69 is treated as part of the long term consolidation pattern that started at 15.78 back in 2005. Further will now remain in favor as long as 4.157 support holds, towards 38.2% retracement of 13.694 to 2.409 at 6.72 and beyond. Nevertheless, break of 4.157 support will indicate dampen this bullish case and turn outlook mixed again.....Nymex Natural Gas Continuous Contract 4 Hours Chart

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Crude Oil and Natural Gas Technical Outlook For Tuesday Morning

Nymex Crude Oil (CL)

Crude oil's recovery from 72.39 extends further to a s high as 78.44 today and at this point further rally should still be seen as long as 75.18 minor support holds. Break of 80.51 resistance will indicate that choppy consolidations from 82.0 has completed already and the medium term rally could be resuming for 82.0 and beyond. On the downside, below 75.18 will flip intraday bias back to the downside for trend line support at 70.76.

In the bigger picture, the lack of follow through selling and the choppy price actions from 82.0 so far dampen our bearish view. Instead, the corrective natural of the fall from 82.0 to 72.39 suggests that it's merely consolidation in the medium term rise. That is, rally from 33.2 is possibly not completed yet and a break of 80.51 will affirm this bullish case. Nevertheless, as we expect such rise to conclude inside resistance zone of 76.77/90.24 (38.2% and 50% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2), focus will remain on loss of momentum and reversal signal even in case of another rise.....Nymex Crude Oil Continuous Contract 4 Hours Chart.

Nymex Natural Gas (NG)

Natural gas dips further to as low as 4.76 today and so far, intraday bias remains neutral. As noted before, recent price actions should be consolidations to rise from 2.409 only and hence, we'd continue to anticipate an upside break out sooner or later. Above 5.318 will confirm that whole rebound from 2.409 has resumed and should target 61.8% projection of 2.409 to 5.318 from 4.157 at 5.955 next.

In the bigger picture, medium term fall from 13.69 is treated as part of the long term consolidation pattern that started at 15.78 back in 2005. Further will now remain in favor as long as 4.157 support holds, towards 38.2% retracement of 13.694 to 2.409 at 6.72 and beyond. Nevertheless, break of 4.157 support will indicate dampen this bullish case and turn outlook mixed again.....Nymex Natural Gas Continuous Contract 4 Hours Chart .

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Phil Flynn: It's so Funny How we Don't Talk Supply Anymore

It's so funny how we don't talk supply anymore.

It's so funny how we don't talk supply anymore. But I ain't losing sleep and I ain't counting sheep. Yet today we may be counting barrels. Yesterday it was about increasing interest rates in Australia and conspiracy theories against the dollar. Oh no!, they are plotting against the dollar! Run and hide! Run and hide in commodities. Today it may be back to good old supply and demand. The Energy Information Agency releases there weekly snapshot of supply and demand and now the market will focus on the old fashion fundamentals if only for a moment. And judging by Last night’s American Petroleum Institute’s version this report may raise a few eyebrows, especially when it comes to distillate supply

The API reported a stunning week over week supply drop in distillates of 2.9 million barrels. This was the main feature of the report and the main reason it will fall into the bullish category. Heating oil stocks fell by 892,000 barrels. The API also reported a small drop in crude oil supply to the tune of 254,000 barrels most of which came in Cushing, Oklahoma the Nymex delivery point. Gasoline stocks rose a modest 544,000 barrels. Despite the fact that supplies in every category are well above normal, if the EIA reports similar number this should feed into the bullish momentum that has engulfed.....Read the entire article.

Oil Rises, But Will Rally Continue?

Crude oil on the New York Mercantile Exchange Monday rose again continuing its recent rally. Closing above $68 today, the increase in the price of oil was spurred by positive economic news about US home sales. Settling 33 cents above Friday's close, the price of crude oil rose to $68.38 a barrel in trading Monday on the NYMEX. Just two weeks ago, the price of oil was below $60 in a correction that brought prices down from a high of near $73.....Complete Story


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Oil Stays Above $65, Natural Gas Continues to Rise

Crude oil for September delivery fell slightly to settle above $65 Wednesday on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The price of oil today was tempered by less than stellar numbers coming out of the EIA. Crude oil for September delivery closed at $65.40 Wednesday on the NYMEX, a drop of 21 cents from yesterday’s close. While August deliveries expired yesterday, closing at $64.72, the price of September deliveries closed higher on Tuesday at $65.61.....Complete Story

NYMEX Crude Steadies Above $65

Gaining on the New York Mercantile Exchange for the sixth day in a row, crude oil rallied above $65 on Wednesday as earnings reports continue to beat Wall Street's expectations and government data released today shows crude oil supplies were down last week. U.S. crude oil futures for September delivery settled at $65.40, or 68 cents higher than Tuesday's close. Also gaining, London Brent crude climbed above $65 in seesaw trading, finally closing at more than $67 per barrel.....Complete Story

Oil Gains for 5th Day, Natural Gas Sees Potential

After choppy trading Tuesday, crude oil was able to make gains again on the New York Mercantile Exchange. With intra-day trading topping $65, oil prices eventually settled just below that. Crude oil settled at $64.72 a barrel in trading on the NYMEX Tuesday, a bump of 74 cents from Monday's close. Despite some volatile trading during the day and the expiration of the August deliveries, crude oil was able to continue its recent rally for the fifth day in a row."It seesawed pretty dramatically, and then the market did rebound strongly as we went into the last half-hour for expiration; and I think that helped boost oil prices to its fifth consecutive day gains,".....Complete Story

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Crude Oil Trading Small Specs

If you haven't visited or subscribed to Rich Olney's "Crude Oil Trading Small Specs" site, it's time you did. Rich provides some of the best crude oil trading calls available, worth every bit of the small fee he charges.

Here is his weekend call for June 20th....

"Crude Oil Thoughts"

Oh so close to a sell signal on the daily but not yet. The daily is still on a buy. Every pull back has been a buy so is this time diff? If the FED stays the course, which I think they will, Crude should make new highs before the pull back happens that everyone is looking for. I will add more to this string later but the commercials increased their OI last week and reduced their net short position as well not bearish action by any means. Also the USO chart is misleading since it is the second derivative and we are in contango market use the futures contract..........(USO chart paints a diff picture).

I think we can get the big sell off many are looking for if the FED changes their bias statement to indicate a move away from quantitative easing (QE). The current US QE policy is the main reason for the oil rise and dollar weakness. So that is what oil traders will be looking for a change to the current QE policy in the Wednesday FED statement. If no change to QE policy then more of the same declining dollar and rising crude oil. So if you are shorting oil looking for an IT move down then you are betting that the FED will change their QE stance on Wednesday IMHO.

You can see on the chart below from the 2008 bull market that 38.2% and 50% retracements on the daily chart were par for the course and a buying opportunity every single time. Buying the pull backs at the the 38.2% and 50% retracements was the way to go till the trendline on the daily broke.

Crude is currently at the 50% retrace at 69.90 which is the half way mark between the previous swing low at 65.92 and swing high at 73.90. So my point is the daily trend line is not broken, and we are at the 50% from the last swing low to swing high which when looking at the last bull market was a golden opportunity to buy. That's what has me long here despite all the bearishness on crude.....Click Here For His Complete Post and Charts

NYMEX Crude Oil 30 Minute Weekly Chart

NYMEX Crude Oil 30 Minute Weekly Chart, July 2009

Click on chart to enlarge.....



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Trading Crude Oil Is All About The Dollar, How Low Can It Go?

We were quite amazed when we looked back to see how long it’s been since we had put together a Dollar Index (NYBOT_DX) video. We had to look back to September of 2008 to find the last series of videos we had done specifically for the Dollar Index, and it proved to be successful.

In today’s video we will look at the Dollar Index and the impact it is having on crude oil (NYMEX_CL) and other major markets. I’ll also make a rather surprising prediction as to the most likely trend the dollar is going to take in the next 12 months.

This is a video you will not want to miss as the ramifications of inflation and the dollar are rather shocking.

We will show you how MarketClub has used the same approach in the same market using our “Trade Triangle” technology to trade this index and just how successfully this approach has been.

We strongly recommend that you watch my earlier Dollar Index video and then watch the new one. This will give you more confidence in using our “Trade Triangle” approach.

As always, the videos are free to watch and there is no need to register. I would love to get your feedback about this video and your own predictions about these markets on our blog.

Weaker U.S. Dollar Supports Crude Oil Uptrend

June crude oil closed up $0.62 at $59.65 a barrel today. Prices closed near mid range today and did hit a fresh 5 1/2 month high. A weaker U.S. dollar is supporting buying interest in crude. Bulls have the near term technical advantage. A four week old uptrend is in place on the daily bar chart.

June natural gas closed down 19.0 cents at $3.949 today. Prices closed nearer the session low today. Bears still have the near term technical advantage and are regaining downside momentum.

The June U.S. dollar index closed down 72 points at 82.03 today. Prices closed near the session low and closed at a fresh 4 1/2 month low today. Prices are still in a 10 week old downtrend on the daily bar chart. Bears still have the near term technical advantage and gained more strength today.

The U.S. stock indexes closed mixed today after solid gains posted on Monday. Bulls still have some fresh upside near-term technical momentum. Bears are anticipating the "sell in May and go away" phenomenon that has occurred in the past. However, the recent rally in stocks has surprised most with its resilience. Too many analysts expecting a downturn has actually prolonged the rally.

Haliburton Profits Tumble, Oil Falls the Most in Seven Weeks

"Oil Falls the Most in Seven Weeks as Dollar Gains, Stocks Drop"
Oil fell the most in seven weeks as a stronger dollar reduced the appeal of commodities and on speculation supplies will rise as the recession reduces demand.

Oil dropped as the dollar rose to a one-month high versus the euro, making crude less attractive as a currency and inflation hedge. An Energy Department report last week showed U.S. crude oil inventories climbed to the highest level since September 1990 as demand dropped.

“The strength of the dollar has prompted a selling in the oil market,” said Gene McGillian, an analyst and broker at Tradition Energy in Stamford, Connecticut. “We repeatedly shift from concentrating on the fundamentals of high inventories and low demand on one hand and hopes of recovery later this year. The fundamental picture has reasserted itself today.”....Complete Story

"Halliburton 1Q Profit Tumbles, Cuts Jobs"
Halliburton Co. kicked off the oil sector's first-quarter earnings period on a dour-but-not-unexpected note Monday, reporting net income that tumbled 35 percent from a year ago and offering a poor outlook. It also said it cut more than 2,000 jobs in the first three months of the year.

The company, which has corporate headquarters in Houston and Dubai, was hurt as oil and natural gas producers, stung by low prices, cut back on exploration and drilling, particularly in North America. That's bad news for service companies like Halliburton, which help producers with drilling, reservoir management and other oilfield work.

A major barometer of oil-patch activity is the U.S. rig count, which has fallen more than 50 percent since the end of August. Analysts say the count is likely to fall even more — perhaps another 20 to 30 percent — as producers continue to scale back spending amid bloated oil and gas supplies and weak demand....Complete Story


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Crude Oil Weekly Pivot Points

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