Crude Oil Rally May Be Tempered By Housing Numbers

June crude oil was higher overnight and posted a new high for the month thereby renewing the rally off April's low. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought, diverging but are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. But worse then expected housing numbers this morning have demand concerns looming again and this may be enough to take us back to the 54-55 range that so many professional traders are calling the new bottom.

If June extends this spring's rally, the reaction high crossing at 65.00 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 54.72 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted.

Tuesday's pivot point, our line in the sand is 58.79

First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 60.48
Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 65.00

First support is last Friday's low crossing at 56.07
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 54.72

Get Free Stock Trend Analysis Click Here

The June Dollar was lower overnight and trading below the 75% retracement level of the December-March rally crossing at 827.50. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold, diverging are turning neutral to bullish hinting that a short term low might be in or is near. Closes above the 10 day moving average crossing at 82.90 would temper the near term bearish outlook in the market.

If June extends the decline off April's high, the 87% retracement level of the December-March rally crossing at 81.49 is the next downside target.

First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 83.33
Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 83.99

First support is last Wednesday's low crossing at 81.98
Second support is the 87% retracement level crossing at 81.49

Today’s Stock Market Club Trading Triangles


The June S&P 500 index was higher overnight as it extends Monday's rally above the 10 day moving average crossing at 904.53. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

For Tuesday day traders will be looking at two unfilled gaps. 924.75 to the upside and 882.25 to the downside. Everything looks bullish today so look for traders to go long over the daily pivot point with the first round of selling at the half gap fill 916.50. We may be looking at a double top if the bulls take us to the 924.75 area and beyond.

This morning's housing numbers may have a different idea as stocks like the XHB [homebuilders ETF] are reacting negatively to the numbers in pre market trading.

If June extends this week's rally, this month's high crossing at 929.00 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 886.33 would confirm that a short term top has been posted.

Tuesday's pivot point, our line in the sand is 902

First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 915.80
Second resistance is this month's high crossing at 929.00

First support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 886.33
Second support is the 25% retracement, this spring's rally crossing at 862.80

The June S&P 500 Index was up 7.80 points. at 914.90 as of 5:59 AM CST. Overnight action sets the stage for a higher opening by the June S&P 500 index when the day session begins later this morning.

Short Term Top May Be In For Crude Oil

June crude oil was lower due to strength in the U.S. Dollar and profit taking overnight as it continues to consolidate some of the rally off April's low. Professional traders seem determined to buy the dips but stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning bearish signaling that a short term top might be in or is near.

At this point crude appears to be joined at the hip with the equity markets. The obvious correction in the markets has future demand destruction limiting the upside in crude oil. Keep an eye on Natural Gas though, as any continued rally in Nat Gas will take crude higher with it.

Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 53.72 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted. If June renews this spring's rally, the reaction high crossing at 65.00 is the next upside target.

Friday's pivot point is 58.06

First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 60.08
Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 65.00

First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 57.20
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 53.72

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The June Dollar was higher overnight due to short covering as it consolidates around the 75% retracement level of the December-March rally crossing at 827.50. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are turning neutral to bullish hinting that a short term low might be in or is near. Closes above the 10 day moving average crossing at 83.20 would temper the near term bearish outlook in the market.

If June extends the decline off April's high, the 87% retracement level of the December-March rally crossing at 81.49 is the next downside target.

First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 83.20
Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 84.42

First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 81.98
Second support is the 87% retracement level crossing at 81.49

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The June S&P 500 index traded lower overnight as it consolidates above support marked by the 20 day moving average crossing at 879.44. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term.

If the SP moves into the 892.50 area we look for the bears to make an entry, while crossing that point will easily allow the bulls to take us from 896 to 900.75. The consumer price index numbers and OPEX will influence the market today.

Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 879.44 would confirm that a short term top has been posted while opening the door for a larger degree decline this spring. Closes above the 10 day moving average crossing at 903.22 would temper the near term bearish outlook in the market.

Friday's pivot point, our line in the sand is 888.75

First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 903.22
Second resistance is last Thursday's high crossing at 929.00

First support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 879.44
Second support is the 25% retracement, this spring's rally crossing at 862.80

The June S&P 500 Index was down 2.80 points. at 886.70 as of 6:01 AM CST. Overnight action sets the stage for a lower opening by the June S&P 500 index when the day session begins later this morning.


Today’s Stock Market Club Trading Triangles


Where do you think crude oil is headed? Please feel free to let our readers know what you think and leave a comment!


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Crude Oil Falls, OPEC Raises Output

"Crude Oil Falls More Than $1 as Equities Decline, Demand Drops"
Crude oil fell after U.S. equities dropped on a report showing that retail sales unexpectedly declined in April and fuel demand plunged to a 10 year low. Oil dropped as much as 2 1/2 percent as stocks slipped after the Commerce Department said that purchases at U.S. stores decreased 0.4 percent last month. An Energy Department report showed that that fuel use fell to the lowest level since May 1999. Prices rose earlier when the report showed.....Complete Story

"Energy Companies Pounce on Price, Equities Rally by Raising Capital"
Independent crude oil and natural gas producers are taking advantage of the commodity price and broader stock market rally by raising capital. The flurry of deals, however, masks the varying degrees of financial health among companies in the sector. Better capitalized companies, which tend to be larger, are using the opportunity to build up cash reserves to invest in growth. Many smaller firms, meanwhile, had overextended themselves when oil and gas prices were at all time record highs and are.....Complete Story

"OPEC Raised Oil Output for the First Time Since July"
The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries boosted oil production last month for the first time since July, exceeding its quota by 967,000 barrels a day and backtracking its implementation of supply cuts intended to stem falling prices. The 11 OPEC members bound by targets implemented 77 percent of planned output cuts of 4 1/2 million barrels a day, down from a revised 82 percent for March, the Vienna based organization said.....Complete Story



Today’s Stock Market Club Trading Triangles



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Crude Oil Rally Struggling Against Future Demand Concerns

June crude oil was higher overnight as it extended the rally off April's low and are still holding up despite future demand threats from worse than expected retail numbers this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

If June extends the rally, the reaction high crossing at 65.00 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 53.18 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted.

Wednesday's pivot point, our line in the sand is 58.91

First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 60.08
Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 65.00

First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 56.10
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 53.18

Today’s Stock Market Club Trading Triangles

The June Dollar was steady to lower overnight as it consolidates below the 75% retracement level of the December-March rally crossing at 827.50. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term.

If June extends the decline off April's high, the 87% retracement level of the December-March rally crossing at 81.49 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 84.75 would temper the near term bearish outlook in the market.

First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 83.62
Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 84.75

First support is the overnight low crossing at 81.98
Second support is the 87% retracement level crossing at 81.49

Today’s Stock Market Club Trading Triangles

The June S&P 500 index was lower overnight and is testing initial support marked by the 10 day moving average crossing at 901.93. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bearish hinting that a short term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 877.90 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted.

If June renews the rally off March's low, January's high crossing at 937.00 is the next upside target.

Our pivot point for Wednesday is 905

First resistance is last Thursday's high crossing at 916.75
Second resistance is January's high crossing at 927.50

First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 895.75
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 884.50

The June S&P 500 Index was down 4.50 points. at 902.30 as of 6:00 AM CST. Overnight action sets the stage for a lower opening by the June S&P 500 index when the day session begins later this morning.

10:30 AM ET. May 15

US Energy Dept Oil Inventories

Crude Oil Stocks (previous 375.3M)

Crude Oil Stocks (Net Change)(expected +1.3M; previous +600K)

Gasoline Stocks (previous 212.4M)

Gasoline Stocks (Net Change)(expected 0; previous -200K)

Distillate Stocks (previous 146.5M)

Distillate Stocks (Net Change)(expected +1.3M; previous +2.4M)

Refinery Usage (expected 85.4%; previous 85.3%)


Today’s Stock Market Club Trading Triangles



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Crude Oil Closes Higher On Thursday, Well Off Session Highs

June crude oil closed higher on Thursday but well off session highs due to some profit taking. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

If June extends the rally, January's high crossing at 59.66 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 52.00 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted.

First resistance is today's high crossing at 58.57.
Second resistance is January's high crossing at 59.66.

First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 52.79.
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 52.00.

Today’s Stock Market Club Trading Triangles

The June Dollar closed higher on Thursday as it extends this week's trading range. The mid range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term.

If June extends the decline, March's low crossing at 83.14 is the next downside target. Multiple closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 85.29 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted.

First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 84.67.
Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 85.29.

First support is today's low crossing at 83.55.
Second support is March's low crossing at 83.14.

Today’s Stock Market Club Trading Triangles

The June S&P 500 index posted a downside reversal on Thursday due to profit taking as it consolidated some of this spring's rally. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

If June extends the rally off March's low, January's high crossing at 937.00 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 865.19 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted.

First resistance is today's high crossing at 929.00.
Second resistance is January's high crossing at 937.00.

First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 881.39.
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 865.19.


Will the stress test results put crude oil back in rally mode? Let us know, please feel free to leave a comment and let our readers know!

Crude Oil Moves Higher On Lower Than Expected Inventory Reports

June crude oil closed higher on Wednesday on lower than expected inventory numbers as it extends the rally off April's low. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

If June extends the rally, January's high crossing at 59.66 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 51.78 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted.

First resistance is today's high crossing at 56.47.
Second resistance is January's high crossing at 59.66.

First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 52.10.
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 51.78.

Today’s Stock Market Club Trading Triangles

The June Dollar closed lower on Wednesday as it extends this week's decline. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term.

If June extends the decline, March's low crossing at 83.14 is the next downside target. Multiple closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 85.38 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted.

First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 84.84.
Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 85.38.

First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 83.62.
Second support is March's low crossing at 83.14.

Today’s Stock Market Club Trading Triangles

The June S&P 500 index closed higher on Wednesday as it extends this spring's rally. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

If June extends the rally off March's low, January's high crossing at 937.00 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 861.12 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted.

First resistance is today's high crossing at 917.30.
Second resistance is January's high crossing at 937.00.

First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 875.94.
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 861.12.


Do you think this market has what it takes to continue higher? Please feel free to comment and let our readers know what you are thinking!

Crude Oil Closes Higher, Bulls Have The Technical Advantage

June crude oil closed up $1.16 at $54.36 a barrel today. Prices closed near the session high today and hit a fresh three week high, amid a stronger U.S. stock market and a weaker U.S. dollar. Bulls are gaining fresh upside near term technical momentum.

The U.S. stock indexes closed solidly higher and closed at multi month highs today, amid some better U.S. housing starts data and ideas the U.S. economy has seen the worst. The bulls have gained fresh near term upside technical momentum. The fact that so many traders are looking for a downside correction soon is in fact a bullish technical clue.

The June U.S. dollar index closed down 76 points at 83.94 today. Prices closed near the session low and hit a fresh six week low. Bears are gaining downside near term technical momentum.


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Light Trading Volume Expected For May Day Holiday

June crude oil was steady to slightly lower overnight as it consolidates above resistance marked by the 10 day moving average crossing at 50.01.

The commodities markets will be effected by possible light volume on Friday due to the May Day Holiday being celebrated in much of Europe.

Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 51.43 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted.

If June renews this month's decline, the reaction low crossing at 45.11 is the next downside target.

Friday's pivot point, our line in the sand is 51.01

First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at 51.94.
Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 53.21.

First support is Monday's low crossing at 48.01.
Second support is last Tuesday's low crossing at 46.72.

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The June S&P 500 index was higher overnight as it extends the rally off March's low. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging but are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

That being said we see this as a swing day, a great opportunity to go short if we touch the high's of Wednesday. This market is trying to roll over for the bears.

If June extends the rally off March's low, January's high crossing at 937.00 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 849.26 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted.

Friday's pivot point, our line in the sand is 873.75

First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at 887.10.
Second resistance is January's high crossing at 937.00.

First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 855.41.
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 849.26.

The June S&P 500 Index was up 3.70 points. at 873.70 as of 5:59 AM CST. Overnight action sets the stage for a higher opening by the June S&P 500 index when the day session begins later this morning.

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The June Dollar was lower overnight as it extends this week's decline. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term.

If June extends this week's decline, March's low crossing at 83.14 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10 day moving average crossing at 85.63 would temper the near term bearish outlook in the market.

First resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 85.52.
Second resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 85.63.

First support is Thursday's low crossing at 84.03.
Second support is March's low crossing at 83.14.



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Crude Oil Looks To Move Lower On Stronger Dollar, Swine Flu Outbreak

Market news just seems to be building against crude this week. The Mexican Flu outbreak, the stronger dollar and the SP 500 trending lower all are weighing heavily on crude oil. We appear to be range bound in the 48-53 range for now and while the future seems bearish for oil traders they appear more than willing to pile in long when meeting support.

For Tuesday we need to touch 48 for me to start building a scalp/long day trade position. Under 47 we go 100% long. In this market I will be 100% out if we rally any where near 1st resistance at 51.69

Tuesday's pivot point, our line in the sand is 49.85

1st resistance is 51.69
2nd resistance is 53.29

1st support is 48.25
2nd support is 46.41



Market news to watch for.................

4:30 PM ET. Apr 2...API Oil Industry Report

....................Crude Stocks (Net Change) (previous -1.01M)

....................Gasoline Stocks (Net Change) (previous +107K)

....................Distillate Stocks (Net Change) (previous +458K)

....................Refinery Runs (previous 82.1%)


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Has The Trend Changed For Crude Oil?

Do you need any more proof of where crude oil is headed and where the SP 500 may be following it?

Crude Oil Closes Higher, Bears Still Have Near Term Advantage

June crude oil closed up $0.58 at $49.43 a barrel today. Prices closed near mid range today. Crude oil bears still have the near term technical advantage. The next downside price objective for the crude oil bears is to produce a close below solid technical support at $44.00.

The U.S. stock indexes closed firmer today. Trading has turned choppy this week. Banking worries and bearish corporate earnings reports this week are keeping the bulls tentative. The recent uptrends in the stock indexes are "rolling over" on the daily charts, which is a bearish technical clue.

June gold futures closed up $14.50 at $907.00 today. Prices closed nearer the session high again today on short covering and fresh speculative buying and amid a weaker U.S. dollar. Prices did hit a fresh three week high today as bulls and bears are back on a level near term technical playing field. Prices are still in a two month old downtrend on the daily bar chart, however.

The June U.S. dollar index closed down 92 points at 85.56 today. Prices closed near the session low today. Bulls are fading quickly. Bulls' next upside price objective is to close prices above solid technical resistance at this week's high of 87.22.



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Crude Oil Closes Slightly Higher, Bears Still Have Technical Advantage Near Term

June crude oil closed up $0.35 at $48.90 a barrel today. Prices closed nearer the session high today on more short covering following strong losses on Monday. Prices are pausing after the big down day on Monday, and this pause is not bullish. Crude oil bears still have the near term technical advantage.

The June U.S. dollar index helped crude oil by closing down 45 points at 86.44 today, closing near the session low's. Bulls still have the slight near term technical advantage, but need to show fresh strength soon to keep it.

The U.S. stock indexes did not help crude oil's cause by closing mostly lower today and near their session lows. Some more banking worries today and bearish corporate earnings reports this week are keeping the bulls tentative. The recent uptrends in the stock indexes will begin to "roll over" on the daily charts and start to produce bearish chart signals if more price weakness occurs this week.




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Crude Oil Falls On Inventory Gains

Crude oil falls as inventories increased sharply across the board. As of 10:40 EST crude oil is trading below the critical 48.50 level as institutional traders look to defend $45.00 this week. Next target is 1st support at $48.02.


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Crude Oil Lower As Earnings Reports Bring Down The Market's

June crude oil traded higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates some of this week's decline. But has traded below 48.0 in pre market trading as financial's weigh on the overall markets.

Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term.

If June extends this week's decline, the reaction low crossing at 45.11 is the next downside target.

Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 52.22 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted.

Traders appear to be focused on the 48.50 50% retracement level as their line in the sand.

First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 51.43.
Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 52.22.

First support is the overnight low crossing at 48.02.
Second support is the reaction low crossing at 45.11.

10:30 AM ET. Apr 17..US Energy Dept Oil Inventories

....Crude Oil Stocks (previous 366.7M)

....Crude Oil Stocks(Net Change}(expected+2.5M;previous +5.6M)

....Gasoline Stocks(previous 216.5M)

....Gasoline Stocks(Net Change)(expected-900K;previous-900K)

....Distillate Stocks(previous 139.6M)

....Distillate Stocks(Net Change)(expected-900K;previous-1.2M)

....Refinery Usage(expected 81%;previous 80.4%)


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The June S&P 500 index was lower overnight as it consolidates some of Tuesday's rally. Once again it appears the markets are allowing the financial's to take the lead and poor earnings reports this morning from Morgan Stanley are weighing on the market.

Stochastics and the RSI are turning bearish signaling that a short term top appears to have been posted.

Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 831.56 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted.

If June renews the rally off March's low, January's high crossing at 937.00 is the next upside target.

Wednesday's pivot point, our line in the sand, is 840.

First resistance is last Friday's high crossing at 867.00.
Second resistance is January's high crossing at 937.00.

First support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 831.56.
Second support is the reaction low crossing at 802.60.

The June S&P 500 Index was down 3.70 points. at 844.00 as of 6:05 AM CST. Overnight action sets the stage for a lower opening by the June S&P 500 index when the day session begins later this morning.

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The June Dollar was lower due to light profit taking overnight as it consolidates some of Monday's rally. Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

If June extends Monday's rally, the reaction high crossing at 88.26 is the next upside target. Closes below last Monday's low crossing at 84.72 would confirm that a short term top has been posted.

First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 87.22.
Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 88.26.

First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 85.94.
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 85.61.


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Crude Oil Closes Higher After Trading At Six Week Low

June crude oil closed up $0.18 at $48.69 a barrel today. Prices closed nearer the session high today on short covering following strong losses on Monday. Prices hit a fresh six week low early on today and some near term chart damage has been inflicted this week. Crude oil bears have the near term technical advantage.

The U.S. stock indexes closed higher today and nearer their session high on a rebound from solid losses on Monday. Some positive comments from U.S. Treasury Secretary Geithner today helped the market. However, a slew of upcoming corporate earnings reports this week will likely keep the bulls tentative. The recent uptrends in the stock indexes will begin to "roll over" on the daily charts and start to produce bearish chart signals if more price weakness occurs this week.

June gold futures closed down $5.80 at $881.70 today. Prices closed near the session low today amid a rebound in the U.S. stock market today. The gold bears still have the overall near term technical advantage. Prices are in a two month old downtrend on the daily bar chart.

The June U.S. dollar index closed down 16 points at 86.82 today. Prices closed near mid range today. Bulls still have the near term technical advantage. Bulls' next upside price objective is to close prices above solid technical resistance at 89.00.


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Crude Oil Trading Lower, Breaking Through Critical Levels

Crude oil is trading lower as it extends Monday's breakout to the downside of this spring's symmetrical triangle formation.

Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term.

If May extends Monday's decline, the reaction low crossing at 43.74 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted.

Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 50.38 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted.

Tuesday's pivot point, our line in the sand is 49.61

First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 49.15.
Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 50.38.

First support is the overnight low crossing at 45.19.
Second support is the reaction low crossing at 43.74.

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4:30 PM ET. Apr 17...API Oil Industry Report

.....................Crude Stocks (Net Change) (previous +6.5M)

.....................Gasoline Stocks (Net Change) (previous -613K)

.....................Distillate Stocks (Net Change) (previous +87K)

.....................Refinery Runs (previous 79.9%)

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The June S&P 500 index was steady to slightly higher due to short covering in the overnight trading session as it consolidates some of Monday's decline, but has now moved lower has we near the regular trading session.

Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning bearish signaling that a short term top appears to have been posted. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 828.86 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted.

If June extends the rally off March's low, January's high crossing at 937.00 is the next upside target.

The pivot point, our line in the sand is 843.25.

First resistance is last Friday's high crossing at 867.00.
Second resistance is January's high crossing at 937.00.

First support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 828.86.
Second support is the reaction low crossing at 802.60.

The June S&P 500 Index was up 1.50 points. at 834.20 as of 5:51 AM CST. But has now sharply sold off [6+ points] before the opening of regular trading hours.

It had appeared that the overnight action set the stage for a steady to higher opening by the June S&P 500 index when the day session begins later this morning.

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The June Dollar was lower due to light profit taking overnight as it consolidates some of Monday's rally. Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

If June extends Monday's rally, the reaction high crossing at 88.26 is the next upside target. Closes below last Monday's low crossing at 84.72 would confirm that a short term top has been posted.

First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 87.22.
Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 88.26.

First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 85.82.
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 85.48.


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Crude Oil Closes Lower, Pressured By Dollar and Stocks

June crude oil closed down $4.02 at $48.45 a barrel today. Prices closed near the session low today, hit a fresh five week low and saw a bearish downside "breakout" from a wedge pattern on the daily chart. Crude oil bears have regained the near term technical advantage. A big drop in the stock market today and a stronger U.S. dollar helped to pressure crude oil.

The June U.S. dollar index closed up 71 points at 87.00 today. Prices closed near the session high and hit a fresh four week high today. Bulls have regained the near term technical advantage.

The U.S. stock indexes closed solidly lower today and near their session lows. The bulls faded today and need to show fresh power soon, or else the recent uptrends on the daily charts will begin to "roll over" and start to produce bearish chart signals.

A heavy slate of corporate earnings reports are due out this week and traders will examine them very closely. It's likely that most of those reports will encourage the stock index bears.

Haliburton Profits Tumble, Oil Falls the Most in Seven Weeks

"Oil Falls the Most in Seven Weeks as Dollar Gains, Stocks Drop"
Oil fell the most in seven weeks as a stronger dollar reduced the appeal of commodities and on speculation supplies will rise as the recession reduces demand.

Oil dropped as the dollar rose to a one-month high versus the euro, making crude less attractive as a currency and inflation hedge. An Energy Department report last week showed U.S. crude oil inventories climbed to the highest level since September 1990 as demand dropped.

“The strength of the dollar has prompted a selling in the oil market,” said Gene McGillian, an analyst and broker at Tradition Energy in Stamford, Connecticut. “We repeatedly shift from concentrating on the fundamentals of high inventories and low demand on one hand and hopes of recovery later this year. The fundamental picture has reasserted itself today.”....Complete Story

"Halliburton 1Q Profit Tumbles, Cuts Jobs"
Halliburton Co. kicked off the oil sector's first-quarter earnings period on a dour-but-not-unexpected note Monday, reporting net income that tumbled 35 percent from a year ago and offering a poor outlook. It also said it cut more than 2,000 jobs in the first three months of the year.

The company, which has corporate headquarters in Houston and Dubai, was hurt as oil and natural gas producers, stung by low prices, cut back on exploration and drilling, particularly in North America. That's bad news for service companies like Halliburton, which help producers with drilling, reservoir management and other oilfield work.

A major barometer of oil-patch activity is the U.S. rig count, which has fallen more than 50 percent since the end of August. Analysts say the count is likely to fall even more — perhaps another 20 to 30 percent — as producers continue to scale back spending amid bloated oil and gas supplies and weak demand....Complete Story


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Crude Rises On Jobless Claims, Petrobras Seeks Additional Rigs

"Crude Oil Rises After Unexpected Decline in U.S. Jobless Claims"
Crude oil rose after the number of U.S. workers claiming jobless benefits unexpectedly fell last week, indicating the pace of economic decline may be slowing. Oil climbed as much as 2.5 percent after the Labor Department reported that claims decreased by 53,000 to 610,000 in the week ended April 11, the fewest since January. China, the biggest oil consumer after the U.S., grew 6.1 percent during the first quarter, the slowest pace in almost 10 years....Complete Story

"Petrobras Seeks New Rigs, Marches On With Expansion Plan"
Petrobras will start seeking bids for new rigs in the next couple of months as it marches on with its ambitious five-year investment plan. The Brazilian state energy giant in January announced it planned to invest $174.4 billion in 2009-13, including $28.6 billion this year -- an increase from $23 billion in 2008, which is unusual as global oil majors including U.S. firms Chevron Corp. and ConocoPhillips are cutting back on investment....Complete Story

"Total, China In Venezuela Oil Talks"
France's Total, China National Petroleum Corp and Petroleos de Venezuela are in advanced talks about a deal to produce and refine Venezuelan oil to send to China, the Wall Street Journal reported. Senior officials from all three groups plan to meet in Caracas next month to discuss a possible multi billion dollar accord, the paper said on Wednesday, citing people close to the talks.
The 20 year venture could see 200,000 barrels of oil a day shipped to China possibly starting in 2013....Complete Story


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Crude Higher On Short Covering, Signals Turn Bearish

May crude oil was higher overnight due to short covering as it consolidates some of this week's decline. However, stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 47.26 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted.

Closes above March's high crossing at 54.66 are needed to confirm an upside breakout of the current consolidation pattern.

First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 53.90.
Second resistance is March's high crossing at 54.66.

First support is last Wednesday's low crossing at 47.37.
Second support is the reaction low crossing at 47.26.

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The June S&P 500 index was steady to slightly lower due to profit taking overnight as it consolidates some of its recent gains. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish hinting that a short term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 819.51 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted.

If June extends the rally off March's low, February's high crossing at 867.50 is the next upside target.

Thursday's pivot point, our line in the sand is 844.

First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 861.30.
Second resistance is February's high crossing at 867.50.

First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 831.70.
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 819.51.

The June S&P 500 Index was down 1.10 points. at 847.40 as of 6:00 AM CST. Overnight action sets the stage for a steady to lower opening by the June S&P 500 index when the day session begins later this morning.

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The June Dollar was higher overnight due to short covering as it consolidates some of Monday's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term.

If June extends this week's decline, last Monday's low crossing at 84.10 is the next downside target. Closes below last Monday's low would open the door for a possible test of March's low crossing at 83.15. Closes above last Thursday's high crossing at 86.24 would open the door for additional short covering gains during April.

First resistance is last Thursday's high crossing at 86.24.
Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 86.61.

First support is last Monday's low crossing at 84.10.
Second support is March's low crossing at 83.14.