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Why Investors Must Be Cautious At These Prices

Last week on October 8th the financial market experienced a broad based sell off. Every sector was down with utilities being the only exception.

The individual leadership stocks, which are typically small to mid-cap companies (IWM – Russell 2K) that have a strong history and outlook of earnings growth, were hit hard as well.

Whenever the broad market experiences a price correction, one of the most important factors I analyze is how well leading stocks hold up and show relative strength to the broad market.

So, where does this leave us going forward?

When stocks that have been leading the market higher and only pausing during market corrections in the S&P500, Dow, and NASDAQ, it’s a positive sign. This tells us investors and big money continues to flow into the risk on assets (stocks).

Conversely, when these leading stocks/sectors begin succumbing to the selling pressure of the broad market, it quickly grabs my attention and tells us it’s time to be aware that a major top may be forming.

It looks as though the broad market rally is just barely hanging on. If the leading stocks and sectors begin breaking below their 50 day moving averages, my proprietary SP500 Market Timing & Trading System will shift to sell mode and things could get ugly for those who do not know how to trade a bear market.

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COT Market Summary for Tuesday October 8th - Crude Oil, Natural Gas, SP 500, Gold and Coffee

November crude oil closed higher on Tuesday as it consolidates above the 10 day moving average crossing at 103.07. The mid range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 104.41 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. If November renews the decline off August's high, the 50% retracement level of the April-August rally crossing at 98.71 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 104.41. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 108.15. First support is the 38% retracement level of the April-August rally crossing at 102.43. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the April-August rally crossing at 98.71.

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November Henry natural gas closed higher on Tuesday and above the 20 day moving average crossing at 3.654 confirming that a short term low has been posted. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If November extends today's rally, September's high crossing at 3.892 is the next upside target. If November renews the decline off September's high, the 75% retracement level of the August-September rally crossing at 3.436 is the next downside target. First resistance is today's high crossing at 3.730. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 3.892. First support is the reaction low crossing at 3.450. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the August-September rally crossing at 3.436.

The December S&P 500 closed lower on Tuesday as it extended the decline off this month's high. Today's low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If December extends the decline off this month's high, August's low crossing at 1621.00 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 1687.11 would confirm that a short term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 1687.11. Second resistance is August's high crossing at 1726.50. First support is today's low crossing at 1651.00. Second support is August's low crossing at 1621.00.

December gold closed lower on Tuesday and the high-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 1324.30 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted. If December renews the decline off August's high, August's low crossing at 1271.80 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 1324.30. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 1353.80. First support is the reaction low crossing at 1276.90. Second resistance is August's low crossing at 1271.80.

December coffee closed higher on Tuesday. The high-range close set the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 11.92 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. If December extends this summer's decline, monthly support crossing at 10.21 is the next downside target.

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COT Market Summary for Thursday Sept.26th - Crude Oil, Natural Gas, Gold and U.S. Dollar

The U.S. stock indexes closed firmer today. U.S. economic data for released Thursday was a mixed bag. The weekly jobless claims report came in better than expected, while the third quarter gross domestic product report came in a bit weaker than expected. The weekly jobless claims data was deemed fresher news than the GDP data and that helped to lift the stock indexes. In more “Fed speak” this week, Richmond Federal Reserve Bank president Jeffrey Lacker said Thursday he supported a faster tapering of the Fed's monthly bond buying program and said he is surprised the process has not already begun.

Fed governor Jeremy Stein also said Thursday the FOMC's decision not to taper last week was “a close call.” Notions are growing the Fed could indeed begin to “taper” yet this year. Meantime, the European Central Bank's executive board member said Thursday the ECB needs to continue its expansive monetary policies. The U.S. budget and debt ceiling issues have moved to the front burner of the market place. The U.S. government will have to at least partially shut down early next week if Congress does not pass a budget by that time.

Also, in mid October the U.S. will hit its borrowing limit. This matter could be significantly bearish for most markets in the near term, as there is talk some of the U.S. government will shut down for a short time next week.

November Nymex crude oil closed up $0.28 at $102.95 today. Prices closed nearer the session high today in quieter trading. Crude oil bulls still have the slight overall near term technical advantage but are fading.

November natural gas closed up 3.5 cents at $3.581 today. Prices closed near the session high on short covering after hitting a fresh five week low early on today. The natural gas bears have the overall near term technical advantage.

The December U.S. dollar index closed up 0.212 at 80.655 today. Prices closed nearer the session high on short covering. The bears still have the near term technical advantage.

December gold futures closed down $11.80 an ounce at $1,324.40. Prices closed nearer the session low today. A firmer U.S. dollar index today helped to pressure gold. A four week old downtrend is in place on the daily bar chart. The gold market bears have the overall near term technical advantage.

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COT Market Summary for Tuesday Sept. 24th - Crude Oil, Natural Gas, SP 500, Gold and Coffee

November crude oil closed lower on Tuesday extending this month's decline. A short covering rebound tempered early session losses and the high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If November extends the decline off August's high, the 38% retracement level of the April-August rally crossing at 102.43 is the next downside target. Multiple closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 106.86 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 106.86. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 110.70. First support is the 38% retracement level of the April-August rally crossing at 102.43. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the April-August rally crossing at 98.71.

October Henry natural gas closed sharply lower on Tuesday as it extends the decline off this month's high. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If October extends this week's decline, the reaction low crossing at 3.418 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10 day moving average crossing at 3.659 would confirm that a short term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 3.659. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the May-August decline crossing at 3.841. First support is the reaction low crossing at 3.418. Second support is April's low crossing at 3.154.

The December S&P 500 closed higher on Tuesday. Today's rally ended a three day decline following comments by President Obama that eased concerns over Middle East tensions. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bearish signaling that a short term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 1668.47 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. If December renews the rally off August's low into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. First resistance is last Thursday's high crossing at 1726.50. Second resistance is unknown now that December is trading into uncharted territory. First support is gap support crossing at 1702.80. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1668.47.

October gold closed lower on Tuesday and the mid range close sets the stage for a steady opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 1362.30 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted. If October renews the decline off August's high, August's low crossing at 1272.10 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 1362.30. Second resistance is August's high crossing at 1432.90. First support is last Wednesday's low crossing at 1281.80. Second resistance is August's low crossing at 1272.10.

And we haven't given up yet....December coffee closed higher due to short covering on Tuesday. The high range close set the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 12.10 would confirm that a low has been posted. If December extends this summer's decline, monthly support crossing at 10.21 is the next downside target.

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COT Market Summary for Monday Sept. 23rd

October crude oil closed lower on Monday extending this month's decline. October decline as the United Nations Security Council worked toward a resolution based on the Geneva accord between the U.S. and Russia. The Syria premium has basically been taken out of the market. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If October extends the decline off August's high, the 38% retracement level of the April-August rally crossing at 102.43 is the next downside target. Multiple closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 105.56 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 110.70. Second resistance is August's high crossing at 112.24. First support is the reaction low crossing at 104.21. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the April-August rally crossing at 102.43.

October Henry natural gas closed lower on Monday and below the 20 day moving average crossing at 3.631 confirming that a short term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near term. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If October extends today's decline, the reaction low crossing at 3.517 is the next downside target. If October renews the rally off August's low, the 50% retracement level of the May-August decline crossing at 3.842 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 50% retracement level of the May-August decline crossing at 3.841. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the May-August decline crossing at 4.003. First support is the reaction low crossing at 3.517. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 3.418.

The December S&P 500 closed lower for the third day in a row on Monday. The December Standard & Poor's 500 Index posted its largest setback in a month as financial shares slumped while investors watched speeches from Federal Reserve officials for clues on monetary policies. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 1666.23 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. If December renews the rally off August's low into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. First resistance is last Thursday's high crossing at 1726.50. Second resistance is unknown now that December is trading into uncharted territory. First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 1694.10. Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 1666.23.

October gold closed lower on Monday as the U.S. economy continues to improve. The Federal Reserve's surprise decision to hold stimulus for now will help prices only in the short term. However, gold could drop below $1,250 an ounce before the end of the year as economic data strengthens and investors expect the Fed to start reducing its asset purchases. Today's high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 1365.80 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted. If October renews the decline off August's high, August's low crossing at 1272.10 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 1365.80. Second resistance is August's high crossing at 1432.90. First support is last Wednesday's low crossing at 1281.80. Second resistance is August's low crossing at 1272.10.

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COT Market Summary for Tuesday Sept. 17th - Crude Oil, Natural Gas, SP 500 and Gold

October crude oil closed lower on Tuesday. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. Today's closes below last Tuesday's low crossing at 106.39 confirms that a short term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near term. Closes above the 10 day moving average crossing at 107.93 would temper the near term bearish outlook. First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 107.93. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 110.70. First support is the reaction low crossing at 104.21. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the April-August rally crossing at 102.43.

October Henry natural gas closed slightly lower due to light profit taking on Tuesday. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging but remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If October extends the rally off August's low, the 50% retracement level of the May-August decline crossing at 3.842 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 3.598 would confirm that a short term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near term. First resistance is the 50% retracement level of the May-August decline crossing at 3.841. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the May-August decline crossing at 4.003. First support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 3.598. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 3.483.

The December S&P 500 closed higher on Tuesday and the high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If December extends the rally off August's low, weekly resistance crossing at 1705.00 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 1653.39 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 1702.80. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 1705.00. First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 1670.96. Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 1653.39.

October gold closed lower on Tuesday and the low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If October extends this month's decline, August's low crossing at 1272.10 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 1374.40 would temper the near term bearish outlook. First resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 1374.40. Second resistance is August's high crossing at 1432.90. First support is Monday's low crossing at 1302.90. Second resistance is August's low crossing at 1272.10.

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COT Week Ending Market Summary - Crude Oil, Natural Gas, SP 500 nad Gold

October crude oil closed lower on Friday. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish hinting that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. Multiple closes below Tuesday's low crossing at 106.39 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted. If October renews this summer's rally, weekly resistance crossing at 114.83 is the next upside target. First resistance is August's high crossing at 112.24. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 114.83. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 106.39. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 103.50.

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October Henry natural gas closed higher on Friday. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If October renews the rally off August's low, the 50% retracement level of the May-August decline crossing at 3.842 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 3.568 would confirm that a short term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near term. First resistance is the 38% retracement level of the May-August decline crossing at 3.680. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the May-August decline crossing at 3.842. First support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 3.568. Second support is August's low crossing at 3.154.

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The December S&P 500 closed higher on Friday. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If December extends the rally off August's low, the reaction high crossing at 1684.40 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 1648.00 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at 1683.00. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 1684.40. First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 1657.60. Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 1648.00.

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October gold closed sharply lower on Friday extending the decline off August's high. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If October extends this week's decline, August's low crossing at 1272.10 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 1380.40 would temper the near term bearish outlook. First resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 1380.40. Second resistance is August's high crossing at 1432.90. First support is today's low crossing at 1304.60. Second resistance is August's low crossing at 1272.10.

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COT Market Summary for Thursday Sept. 12th - Crude Oil, Natural Gas, SP 500, Gold, Coffee

October crude oil closed higher due to short covering on Thursday as it consolidates some of this week's decline. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish hinting that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. Multiple closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 107.54 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted. If October renews this summer's rally, weekly resistance crossing at 114.83 is the next upside target. First resistance is August's high crossing at 112.24. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 114.83. First support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 107.54. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 103.50.

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October Henry natural gas closed higher on Thursday. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 3.556 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near term. If October renews the rally off August's low, the 50% retracement level of the May-August decline crossing at 3.842 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 38% retracement level of the May-August decline crossing at 3.680. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the May-August decline crossing at 3.842. First support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 3.556. Second support is August's low crossing at 3.154.

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The December S&P 500 closed lower due to light profit taking on Thursday. The mid range close sets the stage for a steady opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If December extends the rally off August's low, the reaction high crossing at 1684.40 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 1646.44 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 1683.00. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 1684.40. First support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 1646.44. Second support is August's low crossing at 1621.00.

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October gold closed sharply lower on Thursday extending the decline off August's high. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If October extends this week's decline, August's low crossing at 1272.10 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 1382.20 would temper the near term bearish outlook. First resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 1382.20. Second resistance is August's high crossing at 1432.90. First support is today's low crossing at 1322.40. Second resistance is August's low crossing at 1272.10.

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December coffee closed slightly lower on Thursday but remains above the 20 day moving average. The high range close set the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If December extends Wednesday's rally, August's high crossing at 12.70 is the next upside target. If December renews this summer's decline, monthly support crossing at 10.21 is the next downside target.

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COT Market Summary for Wednesday Sept.11th - Crude Oil, Natural Gas, SP 500, Gold and Coffee

October crude oil closed higher due to short covering on Wednesday as it consolidates some of this week's decline. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish hinting that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. Multiple closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 107.45 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted. If October renews this summer's rally, weekly resistance crossing at 114.83 is the next upside target. First resistance is August's high crossing at 112.24. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 114.83. First support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 107.45. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 103.50.

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October Henry natural gas closed lower on Wednesday. The mid range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 3.543 would confirm that a short term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near term. If October renews the rally off August's low, the 50% retracement level of the May-August decline crossing at 3.842 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 38% retracement level of the May-August decline crossing at 3.680. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the May-August decline crossing at 3.842. First support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 3.543. Second support is August's low crossing at 3.154.

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The December S&P 500 closed higher on Wednesday as it extends the rally off August's low. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If December extends the rally off August's low, the reaction high crossing at 1684.40 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 1646.12 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 1680.70. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 1684.40. First support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 1646.12. Second support is August's low crossing at 1621.00.

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October gold closed lower on Wednesday extending yesterday's breakout below the 20 day moving average. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If October extends this week's decline, the reaction low crossing at 1351.60 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10 day moving average crossing at 1390.00 would temper the near term bearish outlook. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 1432.90. Second resistance is May's high crossing at 1489.00. First support is the reaction low crossing at 1351.60. Second resistance is August's low crossing at 1272.10.

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And we just can't help ourselves.....December coffee closed higher on Wednesday and above the 20 day moving average crossing at 118.88 confirming that a low has been posted. The high range close set the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If December extends today's rally, August's high crossing at 12.70 is the next upside target.

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COT Market Summary for Tuesday September 10th - Crude Oil, Natural Gas, SP 500, Gold and Coffee

October crude oil closed lower on Tuesday and below the 20 day moving average crossing at 107.38. Multiple closes below the 20 day moving average would confirm that a short term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near term. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If October renews this summer's rally, weekly resistance crossing at 114.83 is the next upside target. First resistance is August's high crossing at 112.24. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 114.83. First support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 107.38. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 103.50.

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October Henry natural gas closed lower on Tuesday. The mid range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 3.530 would confirm that a short term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near term. If October renews the rally off August's low, the 50% retracement level of the May-August decline crossing at 3.842 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 38% retracement level of the May-August decline crossing at 3.680. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the May-August decline crossing at 3.842. First support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 3.530. Second support is August's low crossing at 3.154.

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The December S&P 500 gapped up and closed higher on Tuesday as it extends the rally off August's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If December extends the rally off August's low, the reaction high crossing at 1684.40 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10 day moving average crossing at 1640.95 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 1675.00. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 1684.40. First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 1640.95. Second support is August's low crossing at 1621.00.

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October gold closed lower on Tuesday and below the 20 day moving average crossing at 1380.50 confirming that a short term low has been posted. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If October extends today's decline, the reaction low crossing at 1351.60 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10 day moving average crossing at 1395.70 would temper the near term bearish outlook. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 1432.90. Second resistance is May's high crossing at 1489.00. First support is the reaction low crossing at 1351.60. Second resistance is August's low crossing at 1272.10.

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December coffee closed lower on Tuesday. The low range close set the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bullish hinting that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 118.99 would confirm that a low has been posted.

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COT Market Summary for Monday - Crude Oil, Natural Gas, SP 500, Gold and Coffee

October crude oil posted an inside day with a lower close on Monday as it consolidated some of the rally off April's low. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If October renews this summer's rally, weekly resistance crossing at 114.83 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 107.28 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted. First resistance is August's high crossing at 112.24. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 114.83. First support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 107.28. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 103.50.

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October Henry natural gas closed higher due to short covering on Monday as it consolidated some of last week's decline. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.518 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. If October renews the rally off August's low, the 50% retracement level of the May-August decline crossing at 3.842 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 38% retracement level of the May-August decline crossing at 3.680. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the May-August decline crossing at 3.842. First support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 3.518. Second support is August's low crossing at 3.154.

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The December S&P 500 closed higher on Monday and above the 20 day moving average crossing at 1646.62 confirming that a short term low has been posted. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If December extends the rally off August's low, the reaction high crossing at 1684.40 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10 day moving average crossing at 1638.32 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 1662.00. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 1684.40. First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 1638.32. Second support is August's low crossing at 1621.00.

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October gold closed lower on Monday. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If October extends last week's decline, the reaction low crossing at 1351.60 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10 day moving average crossing at 1398.60 would temper the near term bearish outlook. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 1432.90. Second resistance is May's high crossing at 1489.00. First support is the reaction low crossing at 1351.60. Second resistance is August's low crossing at 1272.10.

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December coffee closed unchanged on Monday. The mid range close set the stage for a steady opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are turning neutral to bullish hinting that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 119.46 would confirm that a low has been posted.

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COT Week Ending Market Summary - Crude Oil, Natural Gas, SP 500, Gold & Coffee

October crude oil closed higher on Friday and is poised to extend the rally off April's low. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If October renews this summer's rally, weekly resistance crossing at 114.83 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 107.08 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted. First resistance is last Wednesday's high crossing at 112.24. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 114.83. First support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 107.08. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 103.50.

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October Henry natural gas closed lower on Friday confirming Thursday's key reversal down. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 3.500 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. If October renews the rally off August's low, the 50% retracement level of the May-August decline crossing at 3.842 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 38% retracement level of the May-August decline crossing at 3.680. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the May-August decline crossing at 3.842. First support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 3.500. Second support is August's low crossing at 3.154.

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The September S&P 500 closed higher on Friday and above the 20 day moving average crossing at 1654.38 confirming that a short term low has been posted. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If September extends the rally off August's low, the reaction high crossing at 1667.00 is the next upside target. If September renews the decline off August's high, the 62% retracement level of the June-August rally crossing at 1611.47 is the next downside target. First resistance is today's high crossing at 1663.80. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 1667.00. First support is August's low crossing at 1625.00. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the June-August rally crossing at 1611.47.

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October gold closed higher due to short covering on Friday. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If October extends this week's decline, the reaction low crossing at 1351.60 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10 day moving average crossing at 1399.90 would temper the near term bearish outlook. First resistance is last Wednesday's high crossing at 1432.90. Second resistance is May's high crossing at 1489.00. First support is the reaction low crossing at 1351.60. Second resistance is August's low crossing at 1272.10.

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And you we can't help ourselves.....Our "lowly" September coffee closed higher on Friday as it consolidated some of this week's decline. The mid range close set the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If September extends this summer's decline, monthly support crossing at 10.21 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 116.24 would confirm that a low has been posted.

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Crude Oil Traders Appear to Shrug Off Syria News....Prices Headed Lower

October crude oil closed lower on Wednesday as it consolidated some of Tuesday's key reversal up. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish hinting that a short term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 106.46 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted. If October renews this summer's rally, weekly resistance crossing at 114.83 is the next upside target. First resistance is last Wednesday's high crossing at 112.24. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 114.83. First support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 106.46. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 103.50.

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October Henry natural gas closed higher on Wednesday and above the 38% retracement level of the May-August decline crossing at 3.680. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If October extends the rally off August's low, the 50% retracement level of the May-August decline crossing at 3.842 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 3.475 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. First resistance is the 38% retracement level of the May-August decline crossing at 3.680. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the May-August decline crossing at 3.842. First support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 3.475. Second support is August's low crossing at 3.154.

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The September S&P 500 closed higher on Wednesday as it extends the rebound off the 50% retracement level of the June-August rally crossing at 1629.45. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging and are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 1657.83 would confirm that a short term low has been posted. If September renews the decline off August's high, the 62% retracement level of the June-August rally crossing at 1611.47 is the next downside target. First resistance is today's high crossing at 1654.20. Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 1657.83. First support is last Wednesday's low crossing at 1625.00. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the June-August rally crossing at 1611.47.

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October gold closed lower on Wednesday as it extends the decline off last Wednesday's high. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bearish hinting that a short term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 1367.20 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. If October renews the rally off June's low, May's high crossing at 1489.00 is the next upside target. First resistance is last Wednesday's high crossing at 1432.90. Second resistance is May's high crossing at 1489.00. First support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 1367.20. Second resistance is August's low crossing at 1272.10.

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Upside Reversal in Crude Oil Gives the Bulls Momentum

October crude oil posted an upside reversal on Tuesday ending a two day decline. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish hinting that a short term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 106.34 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted. If October renews this summer's rally, weekly resistance crossing at 114.83 is the next upside target. First resistance is last Wednesday's high crossing at 112.24. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 114.83. First support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 106.34. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 103.50.

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October Henry natural gas closed higher on Tuesday and tested the 38% retracement level of the May-August decline crossing at 3.680. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If October extends this month's rally, the 50% retracement level of the May-August decline crossing at 3.842 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 3.457 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. First resistance is the 38% retracement level of the May-August decline crossing at 3.680. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the May-August decline crossing at 3.842. First support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 3.457. Second support is August's low crossing at 3.154.

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The September S&P 500 closed higher on Tuesday as it consolidates above the 50% retracement level of the June-August rally crossing at 1629.45. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If September extends the decline off August's high, the 62% retracement level of the June-August rally crossing at 1611.47 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 1659.67 would confirm that a short term low has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 1649.80. Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 1659.67. First support is last Wednesday's low crossing at 1625.00. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the June-August rally crossing at 1611.47.

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October gold closed higher on Tuesday and the high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but are turning bearish hinting that a short term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 1361.90 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. If October renews the rally off June's low, May's high crossing at 1489.00 is the next upside target. First resistance is last Wednesday's high crossing at 1432.90. Second resistance is May's high crossing at 1489.00. First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 1396.10. Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 1361.90.

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Precious Metals & Miners Flash Short-Sell Signal

It has been a bumpy ride for precious metal investors over the past couple of years and unfortunately we do not think its over just yet. But we feel fortunate to have our trading partner Chris Vermeulen on our team walking us through this.

Today Chris is telling us that the good news is that the bottom has likely been put in for gold, silver and gold miners BUT the recent rally in these metals and miner looks to be coming to an end. While we could see another pop in price over the next week or so the price, volume and momentum seem to be stalling out.

What does this mean? It means we should expect short term weakness and lower prices over the next month or two.

Here are three charts Chris posted several months. Their forecast were based off simple technical analysis using cycles, Fibonacci and price patterns. As you can see we are not trading at our key pivot level which we expect selling pressure to start to increase and eventually overpower the buyers sending the prices lower.....Click here to see Chris' complete chart work and article.

Volatility in Syria = Volatility in the Markets. Risk off is ON!

The U.S. stock indexes closed solidly lower today on profit taking and amid a “risk-off” day in the world market place The U.S. appears poised to take military action against Syria, possibly within 48 hours, after the Syrian government regime used chemical weapons against its citizens. World stock markets sold off Tuesday on the jitters regarding Syria. There are worries any U.S. military intervention in Syria could escalate into further instability and violence in the already volatile Middle East. Emerging country financial markets and currencies also saw strains Tuesday amid the risk aversion in the market place. The Indian rupee hit another record low versus the U.S. dollar Tuesday.

October Nymex crude oil closed up $3.04 at $108.97 today. Prices closed nearer the session high today and hit a fresh contract high. Syria tensions have pushed oil sharply higher following U.S. Secretary of State Kerry's harsh condemnation of Syria Monday afternoon. Crude oil bulls have the strong overall near term technical advantage. Prices have now seen a bullish upside “breakout” from the choppy and sideways trading range at higher price levels.

December gold futures closed up $26.50 an ounce at $1,419.70 today. Prices closed nearer the session high and hit a nearly three month high today. Safe haven buying was featured, along with fresh technical buying interest. The key “outside markets” were also bullish for the gold market today, as the U.S. dollar index was lower and crude oil prices were sharply higher. The gold market bulls have the near term technical advantage. A two month old uptrend is in place on the daily bar chart.

October natural gas closed up 2.4 cents at $3.577 today. Prices closed near the session high. The nat gas bears still have the overall near term technical advantage. However, the bulls have gained a bit of upside momentum.

The September U.S. dollar index closed down .271 at 81.170 today. Prices closed near the session low. The greenback bears have the overall near term technical advantage. Prices are in a seven week old downtrend on the daily bar chart.

And you just have to know that we can't resist talking about coffee. December coffee closed down 110 points at 116.65 cents today. Prices closed near the session low today as prices hover near the recent contract low. The key “outside markets” were fully bullish for the coffee market today as the U.S. dollar index was lower and crude oil prices were sharply higher. Yet, the coffee market bulls could get no traction, which is another bearish clue for coffee. The coffee bears have the solid overall near term technical advantage.

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Crude Oil Shakes off the Nasdaq Blues and Ballmer News to Finish Higher

October crude oil closed higher on Friday. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 102.22 would confirm that a double top has been posted. Closes above July's high crossing at 108.93 would renew this summer's rally while opening the door for a possible test of weekly resistance crossing at 110.55 later this summer. First resistance is July's high crossing at 108.93. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 110.55. First support is the reaction low crossing at 102.22. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the April-July rally crossing at 100.27.

The September S&P 500 closed higher on Friday as it extended Thursday's key reversal up. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 1676.40 would confirm that a short term low has been posted. If September resumes the decline off August's high, the 50% retracement level of the June-August rally crossing at 1629.45 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 1661.17. Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 1676.40. First support is Thursday's low crossing at 1631.70. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the June-August rally crossing at 1629.45.

October gold closed higher on Friday renewing the rally off June's low. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If October extends the aforementioned rally, June's high crossing at 1424.00 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 1333.70 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 1399.40. Second resistance is June's high crossing at 1424.00. First support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 1333.70. Second resistance is the reaction low crossing at 1272.10.

September Henry natural gas closed lower due to profit taking on Friday as it consolidates some of this month's rally. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If September extends this month's rally, the 38% retracement level of the May-August decline crossing at 3.662 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 3.473 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 3.562. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the May-August decline crossing at 3.662. First support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 3.473. Second support is August's low crossing at 3.129.

Check out the Day Trading History of 16 Major Candlestick Patterns

Markets Drop for a Fourth Day on Bond Price and Bank Worries

The September S&P 500 closed lower on Monday and below the 38% retracement level of the June-August rally crossing at 1647.42 as it extended this month's decline. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If September extends the decline off August's high, the 50% retracement level of the June-August rally crossing at 1629.45 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 1683.59 would confirm that a short term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 1683.49. Second resistance is August's high crossing at 1705.00. First support is today's low crossing at 1646.00. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the June-August rally crossing at 1629.45.

September crude oil closed lower due to profit taking on Monday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening when Tuesday's night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. Closes above July's high crossing at 108.93 would renew this summer's rally while opening the door for a possible test of weekly resistance crossing at 110.55 later this summer. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 102.22 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. First resistance is July's high crossing at 108.93. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 110.55. First support is the reaction low crossing at 102.22. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the April-July rally crossing at 100.27.

October gold closed lower due to profit taking on Monday as it consolidated some of the rally off June's low. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If October extends the aforementioned rally, June's high crossing at 1424.00 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 1323.60 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 1382.40. Second resistance is June's high crossing at 1424.00. First support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 1323.60. Second resistance is the reaction low crossing at 1272.10.

September Henry natural gas closed higher on Monday and above the 20 day moving average crossing at 3.416 confirming that a short term low has been posted. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If September extends today's rally, the 38% retracement level of the May-August decline crossing at 3.662 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10 day moving average crossing at 3.327 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 3.501. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the May-August decline crossing at 3.662. First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 3.327. Second support is August's low crossing at 3.129.

And of course we can't leave out coffee anymore. September coffee closed lower on Monday and the low range close set the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If September renews this month's rally, the reaction high crossing at 126.50 is the next upside target.

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Crude oil bulls hold their ground as the markets fall around them

September crude oil closed higher on Thursday. The mid range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. Closes above July's high crossing at 108.93 would renew this summer's rally while opening the door for a possible test of weekly resistance crossing at 110.55 later this summer. Closes below last Thursday's low crossing at 102.22 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. First resistance is July's high crossing at 108.93. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 110.55. First support is last Thursday's low crossing at 102.22. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the April-July rally crossing at 100.27.

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The September S&P 500 closed sharply lower on Thursday as it extends this month's decline. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If September extends the decline off last week's high, the 38% retracement level of the June-August rally crossing at 1647.42 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10 day moving average crossing at 1688.79 would confirm that a short term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 1688.79. Second resistance is this month's high crossing at 1705.00. First support is today's low crossing at 1656.00. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the June-August rally crossing at 1647.42.

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September Henry natural gas closed higher on Thursday as it extends the rally off last week's low. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that a short term low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 3.448 would confirm that a short term low has been posted. If September renews this year's decline, psychological support crossing at 3.000 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 3.448. Second resistance is the 25% retracement level of the May-August decline crossing at 3.478. First support is last Thursday's low crossing at 3.129. Second support is psychological support crossing at 3.000.

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October gold closed sharply higher on Thursday renewing the rally off June's low. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging but remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If October extends the aforementioned rally, June's high crossing at 1424.00 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10 day moving average crossing at 1315.40 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 1369.20. Second resistance is June's high crossing at 1424.00. First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 1315.40. Second resistance is last Wednesday's low crossing at 1272.10.

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