Are we in the Late Stages of a Major Trend?

Last weeks crude oil spike created some exciting trading and so far 2011 has been interesting to say the least. Stocks and commodities have been jumping around with high volatility generating mixed trading signals. This choppy price action typically indicates trends are in their late stages. The late stages of a trend is very difficult to trade because volatility rises meaning larger day to day price swings, and at any time the price could either drop like a rock or go parabolic surging higher in value. Generally the largest moves take place during the final 10% of trend, but with a sharp rise in price keep in mind the day to day gyrations are much larger than normal, hence the false buy and sell signals back to back on some investment vehicles.

Taking a look at the charts it’s clear that we are on the edge of some sizable moves in both stocks and commodities. It’s just a matter of time before a correction is confirmed or this current pullback in stocks is just a dip (buying opportunity). I am in favor of the longer term trend at work here (bull market) but it only takes a 1 or 2 bid down days and that could change.

SPY (SP500 Price Action) – 60 Minute Chart
This chart shows intraday price action with my market internals. It is signaling a short term bottom within the overall uptrend on the equities market. The big question is if this is a just an opportunity to buy into this Fed induced bull market or the start of a larger correction?

Currently I am bullish but the next couple trading sessions could confirm my bullish view or a correction could be unfolding. Until then, we must remain cautious.

Price Of Gold – Weekly Chart
Gold has staged a strong recovery in the past four weeks. But it has yet to break to a new high. I do feel as though it will head higher because of the way silver has been performing (new highs). But it is very possible we get a pause for a week or two before continuing higher.

Because of the international concerns in the Middle East both gold and silver should hold up well even if the US dollar bounces off support. But, if the US dollar breaks down below its key support level we could see stocks and commodities go parabolic and surge higher in the coming months. It’s going to be interesting year to say least…....

Dollar Weekly Chart
This long term view of the dollar shows a MAJOR level which if penetrated will cause some very large movements across the board (stocks, commodities and currencies).

In short, a breakdown will most likely cause a spike in stocks and commodities across the board which could last up to 12 months in length. On the flip side a bounce from this support zone will trigger a pullback in both stocks and commodities. This weekly chart is something we must keep our eye on each Friday as the weekly candle closes on the chart.

Weekend Trend Report:
In short, 2011 has been interesting but trading wise it’s has yet to provide any real low risk trade setups which I am willing to put much money on. There are times when trading is great and times when it’s not. It all comes down to managing money/risk by trading small during choppy times (late stages of trends), and times when we add to positions as they mature building a sizable portfolio of investments which I think will start to unfold over the next few months.

I continue to analyze the market probing it for small positions as this market flashes short term buy and sell signals. Last week we say a lot of emotional trading and that typically indicates large daily price swings should continue for some time still so keep trades small and manage you positions.

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Is This it.....is the SP 500 and Gold in the Last Stages of the Rally?

When we think of Elliot Wave patterns, we think of one market analyst. David Banister of The Market Trend Forecast.Com. We can't think of anyone who has called the moves better in this market in 2010 then Banister. And as we move to critical resistance levels in this rally it's time to check in with him and see how much room is left in this bull run. Here is his most recent article from Monday evening December 6th.......

The Elliott Wave patterns that I use to forecast movements ahead of time in the SP 500 and Gold for my subscribers have been textbook perfect for quite some time. We can go back to the March 2009 lows and clearly identify 5 waves up to the 13 month initial rally high in April of this year. This was followed by a clear ABC wave 2 pattern to the 1010 lows on July 1st. Right now, the SP 500 is in wave 5 up since July 1st, and that means this is a terminal wave underway before a good sized correction ensues.

Investors should expect the SP 500 to rally up to 1285 as a minimal upside target, with the market likely peaking in the Mid January 2011 period prior to a new correction pattern. That correction will take the markets down to the 1150-1180 ranges more than likely from the January highs and knock the sentiment levels back to bearish before the next big advance. Below is where I see the current wave patterns, and as you can see, this is the 5th and final wave stage of the advance. Ride it up, but lighten up as we approach my figures is my advice. Subscribers to my TMTF service have been riding this stage of the bull long since early July, and we keep them updated every week on the action.

Gold has also completed it’s 4th wave corrective pattern at $1331 per ounce recently, and as I have forecasted recently should continue it’s upward trajectory to about $1480-$1525 before a good sized correction will ensue. Gold bottomed this summer in a classic wave 2 correction at $1155 per ounce, which was a 50% Fibonacci re-tracement of the rally up to $1225 from $1040. My objectives are for this pattern to complete around the same time as the SP 500 peak in Mid January as well. Downside objectives from there are likely to be to the $1310 per ounce range from the $1480-$1525 peaks, but more on that as we approach. I do not like to get too far ahead of myself in my projections, taking it one leg and pivot at a time.

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Is This a Broad Market Reversal....Better Hold On To Your Hat!

From Chris Vermeulen at The Gold and Oil Guy.com......

This had been an exiting week for traders as the equities market was on a verge of a major sell off. Fortunately, we were watching the market very closely and saw the sentiment and market internals shift shortly after a new low was set last week. That was an early warning for us that a trend reversal to the upside could happen at any hour or day this week.

Wednesday and Thursday’s rallies were on solid volume and the market internal indicators along with market breadth were strong also. There has been a large surge of new highs across the board on the NYSE, NASDAQ and AMEX. These numbers tell me that it’s not just one sector moving the market; instead it’s a broad market advance (institutional buying).

While I don’t typically try to pick major tops or bottoms because of the added risks and lower probability of winning trades, I do tend to spot them forming a few days in advance allowing me to tighten stops and take some profits on positions.

Trend reversals typically have large violent moves near the beginning and end of their life cycle making things not only tougher to trade but potentially more costly. Once I see a trend confirmed with moving averages, volume, and sentiment along with market breadth that’s when I start looking to take positions on pauses or pullbacks to support zones. This greatly increases the odds of winning/making money from the market. There are some really great Options Trading Strategies for taking advantage of these volatility changes in the market which you can get at Options Trading Signals.Com.

SPY Daily Chart:
As you can see the market has clearly broken to the upside above key moving averages after finding support at the 50 day moving average. This rally has some solid volume behind it which I like to see also.

The first 3-4 days of a trend reversal generally post some give moves but after that initial thrust expect a pause or pullback to happen.

SPY 60 Minute Intraday Chart:
We were lucky enough to take profits on our inverse SP500 trade as the market started to give us mixed signals of a possible rally. A couple days later on Nov 26th we saw a major shift within the market sentiment preventing us from shorting the market again.

Two days later the broad market gapped higher triggering protective stops/short covering sparking a fierce two day rally which took the market up to a major resistance level. I do feel as though the market is going higher, but right now, everything is WAY over bought and trading at resistance. Even if the market moves higher for another 2-3 days and breaks this resistance level, it will most likely have a pause, or pullback as it regains energy for another thrust higher.

Mid-Week Trading Conclusion:
In short, it looks as though the trend is now up and the Christmas rally could be gearing up for a good one!

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Back 2 Back Reversals for the Stock Market

The market continues to become quicker and fiercer as it move up and down 2+% on a regular basis This week we have seen some wild price swings due to earnings, events and the Fed’s which just makes trading that much more intense.

I have pointed out yesterday that this market only gives you a brief moment to take profits before it starts going wild shaking traders out of positions. This increased volatility is caused from a couple of things:

1. Traders/Investors know the financial system is still riddled with unethical practices/manipulation. This causes everyone to be extra jumpy/emotional and causes volume surges in the market as the herd starts to get greedy or fearful.
2. Volume overall on the buying side of things just isn’t there… I see some nice waves of buying but it doesn’t move the market up much… then it only takes a small wave of sellers for the market to drop....Investors are just scared to buy stocks and that is not a good thing…

I keep a close eye on the buying and selling volume for the NYSE as it tends to help pin tops and bottom within a 2-3 day period. In short when we get panic buying meaning 75%+ of volume is from buyers then I know the general public is jumping into the market buying everything up and that’s when the smart money starts to scale out of their position selling to these retail investors. These retail investors are buying on news and excitement much like what we are seeing now with earnings season. Stocks have run up for 5-10 days, as the smart money buys in on anticipation of good news, then the earnings are released which are better than expected and the stocks pop and drop. Well the pop higher on BIG volume are all the retail investors buying and are generally the last ones in. The smart money is quickly selling into this buying surge so they end up getting out at high prices.

My point here is that in general I see 4-6 of these panic buying or selling days a year which I find are tradable. The crazy part is that we have seen 11 of these panic days (both buying and selling) in just 8 weeks… We are seeing more selling than we did at the bottom in 2009! Something big is about to happen and I want to make sure we get a price of it once the moves starts.

Anyways, below is a chart of the SP500 showing how its trading under some key resistance levels. Today the market gapped up testing the 50 day moving average and above the 5 day moving average then sold down very strongly during Ben Bernanke’s speech. This is not a good sign for the overall health of the market.

On the commodities side of things we are not seeing much happening with gold or oil at the moment. Gold is still in a short term down. And gold took an $8 drop today when Ben Bernanke said inflation would remain low for an extended period of time.

As for crude oil, yesterday afternoon I pointed out to members that oil had a big run up on virtually no volume Tuesday and it would most likely give back those gains today. We saw this today with oil dropping from $78 down to 76.50 per barrel. Overall Oil looks like it wants to go higher but has some work to do before that can happen.

Mid-Week Trading Conclusion:
In short, the market remains choppy and we are getting more than normal news/events which are moving the market and this is causing extra noise and volatility for traders. Cash is king during volatile times and if you are doing some trades be sure to keep the positions small for another month or so.

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Trend Trading Gold, Silver, Crude Oil and the SP500

Last week looked and felt like a pivotal week for both stocks and commodities. The past two weeks have had investors and traders in a panic as they try to find safe investments for their money. After watching and reviewing the panic selling in the market it looks as though the majority decided to sell everything and be in cash for the time being. This is bullish for the stock market.

I will admit it has been tougher to trade recently because of increased risk levels due to the large 2-4% sell offs and rallies happening within minutes… While this is amazing for disciplined and experienced traders who are able to pull the trigger getting in and out with quick profit in the matter of minutes, this same price action can blow up trading accounts of those who do not have a trading strategy, money management and the discipline to take profits and cut losses very quickly. The speed of the rallies and sell offs is the matter of being up or down thousand of dollars in the matter of 5-10 minutes… That is one of the reasons I have stepped back from being aggressive and into more of an observation mode playing with small amounts of money and focusing on the larger trends at.

My #1 goal is to make subscribers money with the least amount of risk and watching the market swing 2-4% in minutes makes it extremely difficult to get everyone in and out positions with a profit before the market changes directions. As much as I love trading, some times the best position is to have small ones or be in cash.

GLD – Gold ETF Trading

Here is my weekly updated chart of gold as it works its way through the correction from last year. The daily chart looks to be forming a larger Cup & Handle pattern which is extremely bullish. If this pattern does a text book move then we could see GLD reach $140 and spot gold would reach the $1400 area.

That being said this pattern still has to complete the handle portion which could easily last another 4 weeks, so I am not in a panic to add more to our position.

SLV – Silver ETF Trading

Silver is in much of the same situation. Because of the added volatility in silver the charts do not look quite the same but they are similar in many ways… Silver is used a lot for industrial purposes and because the economy which is very weak still (though it is getting better) we are not seeing silver demand rise much. If silver can break this large resistance level then we could see silver surge to $25 (25%) this year.

USO – Oil Fund Trading

USO (Oil) has held up really well in the past 12 months but the recent sell off has seriously damaged the bullish outlook I had not long ago. While it is oversold and looks to have started a bounce last week the chart is pointing to lower prices over the longer term… This USO fund does have contago which makes this fund under perform the actual price of oil. The current prices of oil are still trading at a key support level and could post nice bounce if not trigger a new rally. The problem with following some ETF’s which have contago is that you do not see the real price action of the commodity. But that is were I come in as I track the underlying commodity and relate it to ETFs for you.

SPY – SP500 ETF Trading

The Stock Market (SP500) sure has been a roller coaster. The chart below shows you what happened in January for the last correction and where we stand currently in comparison. If a setup is obvious in the financial market there is a very high chance it will not work out as planned and by knowing this it allows us to be cautious and take profits at key short term support and resistance levels.

Trend Trading Conclusion:

In short, I feel gold and silver will drift around to digest the recent move up and to form the handle portion. Oil looks to have put in a short term bottom and if we get a small pullback in the coming days to test the intraday chart breakout level and touch the support trend line we could look to take a position.

We tend to see the most price appreciation during the final stages of a trend and we could have seen that on the US Dollar over the past 6 weeks. It looks as though the dollar could have put in a double top. If the dollar rolls over it would help boost precious metals, oil and stocks… But we will not know it’s a top until there is a clear trend reversal which in any case will be weeks before that type of price action can unfold.

As for the SP500, we have seen the same level of selling as we did in Feb-March 2009. High volume panic selling has ruled the market since late April. There are equal arguments for saying the market has bottomed with all the panic selling and that we should start another large rally lasting 8-12 months or one could argue this is capitulation volume signaling massive distribution of shares and now every rally/bounce will be sold… Personally I am torn between the two… but lean more towards higher prices with a multi month grind up at slow rate…

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Market Ends Week on a Down Note, Now What?

From guest blogger Kevin Kiefer of Ticker House.Com.....

Well folks, this week was pretty easy to call what would happen. We told you on Monday that we were being careful the rest of the week and that you shouldn't buy after that huge rally. We wanted to fill in that gap on the SPY chart before we got less bearish. Today, we have mostly filled in that gap. While you don't have to be a hero and buy stocks at the lows today, we don't see much more downside from here. We have good support at 1125, 1110 and the 200 day currently at 1100. We still think the market will not trade straight up from here but we do see the following things happening next week.

1) The stock market will finish next week at least slightly higher.
2) Oil/copper will finish the week higher.
3) US Treasury bills and the VIX will finish the week lower.
4) Gold will finish the week lower.

I didn't want to make a call on what will happen Monday but I am confident enough to call those four things. Of course, things can change and we'll keep you updated next week. It's possible we drift lower and retest the 200 day which is about 2% lower from here. However, I think that we have more of a chance of bottoming out today. My trade for next week is CELG which currently is in the green today. Celgene could be setting up for a decent bounce next week. If you want to read about the fundamental case for CELG, read the article that I wrote a few weeks back below. Take a look at Tuesday's article below to see the gap on the SPY we were talking about. Compare it to the chart of the SPY as of 2:10 pm today below this article. To sum things up, we think we are bottoming today but let's wait to see what happens early next week. If you want to buy a stock, I'd recommend CELG. It's chart looks good and it's not connected to the overall economy so it's more defensive.




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Are Precious Metals and Indexes Going Parabolic?

It’s been an exciting couple weeks in the market with gold now making new all time highs as money floods into this shiny safe haven. It has everyone all worked up wanting to take part or they are riding the rally up already. But the big question is when should some money be taken off the table to lock in gains and lower your overall risk during these crazy times?

Below are a few charts showing you how I see things at this time.

GLD – Gold Exchange Traded Fund
The price of GLD and gold appear to be going parabolic (straight up). The tough part about this type of price action is that large moves can happen in a very short period of time. But on the flip side, when the price reverses we tend to see prices fall just as fast if not faster. Trading this type of price action carries a very high level of risk. Those chasing it up buying at these overbought market conditions is a double edge knife.



SLV – Silver Exchange Traded Fund
Silver is trading similar to gold but the key difference here is that silver has not broken to a new high as of yet. The high was set in 2008 just over $20 per ounce. But from looking at the chart I think metals are ready for a breather.



HUI Index – Gold Stocks
Gold stocks have yet to breakout along with silver as they both are nearing key resistance levels. With gold stocks and silver trading near resistance I figure we will see pause in the coming days as traders digest the recent strong moves up taking some money off the table incase prices get stuck under these resistance level.



SPY – SP500 Broad Market Exchange Traded Fund
The broad market appears to be forming a possible short setup on the daily chart as the price continues to drift higher with declining volume. Also indexes are testing key resistance levels and the 10 period moving average. The next few days should be interesting....



Mid-Week Precious Metals and Index Exchange Traded Fund Report:
In short, it looks like precious metals and the broad market could take a breather in the coming days. I’m not sure how large of a correction we will see but I do not think it will be all that big.

Gold and silver should have a quick dip with buyers stepping back in on weakness. The SP500/broad market is a little more tough to call as last weeks market crash messed things up washing out all the stops in one day instead of weeks....but we could easily see a 5% drop in the market still.

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Weekend Gold, Silver, Natural Gas, Crude Oil & SP500 Report

Last week the market slowly recovered from the recent sell off in stocks and commodities. So far the market is unfolding as we expected and with any luck there will be a surge of low risk setups across the market in the near future. Take a look at the charts below.

GLD – Gold Chart
GLD/Gold is trading at a key pivot point. This week there will most likely be a sizable move either up or down. Past chart analysis is pointing to lower prices which would complete an ABC trace pattern and this makes for a larger and stronger rally once prices to turn back up. Silver is trading in much the same situation. Gold and silver tend to move together with silver having more volatility than gold.



UNG – Natural Gas Chart
Natural Gas continues to try and bottom and posted some solid gains last Thursday & Friday with rising volume. But we have seen this pattern form over and over again in the past year so I am not excited yet. Once the base is formed and the trend starts up we will find low risk entry points for this commodity. I would look for shorting opportunities but natural gas is so oversold I feel the risk is higher than I prefer.



USO – Crude Oil Chart
Looks like the trend line break down flushed out a lot of weak positions as seen in the volume surge. Oil momentum is still down but we are now starting to look for a buy signal.



SPY – SP500 Chart
Equities recovered nicely from the previous week’s sharp sell off. We saw volume rise with higher prices which is a strong sign of the overall strength of the market. But it is important to note that the market sentiment has reached an extreme level with 53% of traders now being bullish on the market and only 17% being bearish. This extreme level is the same level reached just before the January correction earlier this year.



Equities and Commodity Trading Conclusion:
If recent historical prices repeat again then we are looking for a small move higher on Monday and then a couple days of weakness for both stocks and commodities later in the week. The market is very close to generating several low risk trading signals which is very exciting.

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Mid Week Silver, Crude Oil, SP500 & Gold Charts

It’s been, an interesting week as stocks and commodities claw their way back up after the end of week sell off on Friday. Most of the chart technical are pointing to another wave lower for gold, silver, oil and the broad market.

This next wave of selling would form an ABC retrace pattern on the commodity charts and this pattern is bullish. Also commodity prices would drop to key support levels which would most likely provide a low risk entry point depending on the price and volume action at that time. So lower price is good for the big picture which is higher prices.

The charts below are a quick visual of what I am seeing and thinking....

GLD – Gold Exchange Traded Fund Trading Chart
The gold etf trading fund is getting closer to completing is 4 month correction and start another rally if all goes well in the coming week or two. What I am looking for is gold to hit resistance at $113 and then drop to the $110 level which is a key support level.


SLV – Silver Exchange Traded Fund Trading Chart
SLV etf fund looks ready for a pullback also. Both gold and silver tend to move together and support would be tested here also.


USO – Oil Trading Fund Chart
USO shows that one more thrust down would bring prices to a key support level also.


SPY – SP500 Exchange Traded Fund Trading Chart
Stocks have been on fire the past few months but this rally looks to be getting long in the teeth. After a rally this strong without any pullbacks one has to think that when a correction does start it will be a very sharp sell off. I will point out a few years ago we saw this exact type of price action for the broad market and it continued higher for several more months before actually putting in a large correction. If we don’t see a large correction, then we would see similar price movement which we saw last November and December with the sideways choppy price action and slow rally higher.


Mid-Week Market Conclusion:
In short, I think the market is ready to finally take a breather. What I am looking for another sell off which will break the low for gold, silver, oil and SP500 last week. If this happens then panic would be triggered washing the market of all the traders who have been buying at these high levels (chasing prices).

Stocks have been very strong and new money continues to push prices higher so we could just see a relatively small pullback between 3-5% and then the rally could continue…. This would work very well with gold, silver and oil as they would be testing key support levels and should be ready for a another upward surge.

It doesn’t really matter what the market does as there will always be great opportunities. Waiting for quality setups requires discipline and focus because it is not very active. I see traders making all kinds of silly trades which chip away at their profits because they cannot sit and watch when they should be.

During slow times I actually focus on learning more about the markets going through charts, inter-market analysis comparing things….. That kills a ton of time and helps make you a better trader in the long run. So if you don’t see a good trade get out and do something fun or educational. Don’t just start trading the 5 minute charts because you want to trade…

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Weekend Gold, Silver, Oil & Index Charts

From guest analyst Chris Vermeulen....

Three weeks ago on February 5th, we saw an extremely high level of fear in the market with selling vs. buying volume at a 9:1 ratio. We note that in 2009 this extreme level of fear occurred at the bottom of each significant pullback.

Since this panic selling low in February 2010 we have seen stocks and commodities work their way higher, which we expected. Overall the broad market looks as though it’s trying to make a move higher.

Below are some ETF charts of gold, silver, oil and the indexes.



Gold lead the market higher in 2009 and also lead the market lower in December of 2009. It looks as though gold could be starting a new trend higher.

You can see the clean breakout of the down channel and then a test of the channel at support. This type of price action also forms an inverse head and shoulders pattern for those who like trading patterns.  This is very bullish price action.

SLV Silver ETF – Daily Trading Chart
Silver has much of the same chart features as gold, but is slightly skewed. This is not particularly surprising though, as silver virtually always behaves with less defined chart patterns due to its characteristically funky price action.



USO Oil Fund – Daily Trading Chart

As with gold and silver, oil’s trading chart has formed a pivot low also, but the trend line is much steeper than what I am looking for. I prefer a flatter trend line as price growth is more sustainable.

As you can see in on the USO chart, back in December price rallied at almost the same angle as is currently the case, and then notice what happened. Once the momentum died out the price dropped straight back down. I call steep trends like this a Parabolic Rally.

Scroll up and look at the first chart (GLD) and observe the parabolic rally going into December. It too suffered a sharp drop straight back down when momentum died out.



Stock Indexes – SP500, Dow Jones, Russell 2000

Last week the market sold down the first half of the week, then bounced back up forming a possible pivot low. The daily chart for these indexes look virtually the same as the GLD, SLV and USO charts above for the past 5 trading sessions.

But, one little thing has me concerned….
When looking at the 5 minute intraday charts (posted below) you can see at the very last minute before the market closed HUGE selling volume flooded the ETFs. The market ended up losing all of its gain for the day.

With any luck this was just end of the month hedge, mutual fund, etc. portfolio rebalancing. But I am somewhat concerned that more of this selling could step back into the market Monday or Tuesday.



Weekend Trading Conclusion:

Overall, last week started on a negative note but ended strong after forming a reversal pattern.

It looks as though stocks and commodities have formed an ABC retrace pattern and are now ready to move higher.

How much higher you ask?

Well, I believe 2010 is going to be a traders market. I envision an 8-12 month sideways consolidation (large bull flag) forming. If this materializes then buying on over sold dips, as we did on Feb 5th, and scaling out on strength at resistance levels will be our goal in the coming months.

A bunch of 4-8% trades is what I’m figuring, but with leveraged etfs we can double and triple those type of returns. Now that is something to anticipate with delighted optimism!

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5 ETFs That You Need to Look at Right Now

The five ETFs that we are referring to are going to play a major role in the future and you need to know about them today.

In this short video we show you the overriding trend and potential for each of these markets in the future.

Just click here to watch the video and as always our videos are free to watch and there is no need for registration.

Video: S&P 500 Update For Monday Evening

Today we are going to take another look at the S&P 500 Index. It appears that some of the rose coloring on traders’ glasses is beginning to wear thin. Many more traders now perceive this as a two way trading market as opposed to a one way street we witnessed in March and April.

We are going to be analyzing a daily S&P index chart and making some observations that We think potentially could work out if certain elements fall into place.

At the present time our “Trade Triangle” technology is indicating a neutral stance in this market. With the -55 reading our “Trade Triangles” are indicating a trading range which could possibly be an early sign of a reversal.

You can watch this video [just click here] with our compliments and there is no registration requirements. We would love to get your feedback about this video so please feel free to leave a comment.