Will Russia Lose Its Oily Grip on Europe?

By Marin Katusa, Chief Energy Investment Strategist

Vladimir Putin is on a roll. Ever since the Russian president-turned-prime-minister-turned-president got into office 13 years ago, he's been deftly maneuvering Russia back into the ranks of global heavyweights. These days, he's averting cruise missiles from Syria before breakfast.


For a strategy to return Russia to superpower status, Putin had to look no farther than his own doctoral thesis, Mineral Natural Resources in the Development Strategy for the Russian Economy.

To say that Russia is rich in natural resources would be an understatement. In 2009, the former heart of the Soviet Union surpassed Saudi Arabia as the world's top oil producer—largely because Putin put reviving Russia's aging, neglected oil industry at the top of his priorities list.

The chart below shows proven oil reserves from the pre-Putin era to now. In just 16 years, they have risen by more than 30 billion barrels—which may still be too low, because it's not yet clear how much of the 90-odd billion barrels of undiscovered oil in the Arctic is actually recoverable. And in addition to new discoveries, the rising price of oil has made many formerly uneconomical deposits worth a second look.

As a result, about half of the more than 10 million barrels of oil per day (bopd) that Russia produces are exported… only to return as cash and, increasingly, a fistful of clout.

With Putin's monster deposits being the closest and most conveniently accessible,  many European nations rely heavily on oil and gas imports from Russia and the former Soviet states:

In a world where "he who has the energy wields the power," Russia's European customers find themselves in a very uncomfortable situation. How fragile their position is became clear in January 2009, when Putin, enraged over a price and debt dispute with Ukraine, shut off the natural-gas spigot, leaving customers in 18  European countries literally out in the cold.

Now the Russian vise grip on Europe is about to tighten even more as new energy markets are opening up to Moscow.

In January of this year, Russia's pipeline company, Transneft, completed the $25 billion, 4,700-kilometer-long East Siberia-Pacific Ocean (ESPO) pipeline, and in June, Putin signed one of the world's biggest oil deals ever.

For the next 25 years, Rosneft, Russia's state-controlled oil company, will deliver about 300,000 barrels per day to China—raising Russian oil exports to the Chinese by 75%. Besides China, the pipeline is also conveniently located for Japan, South Korea, and even the US West Coast.

This advantageous situation allows Putin to play hardball with Europe: If its customers there don't ante up what Moscow wants in price or pound of flesh, its income from ESPO customers could enable the country to twist the EU's taps closed.

It comes as no surprise that Europe is desperately trying to find a reasonably priced replacement for Russian oil. And in the very near future, it might just get its wish.

Hidden deep below Central European soil may be one of the largest oil deposits in the world, comparable in size to the legendary Bakken formation in North America. I call it the "next Bakken."
The full extent of this oil colossus is still unknown, but the final result could be one for the record books.  And a small company with 2 million acres of land in the "next Bakken" is hard at work to prove up the reserves and make itself and its shareholders rich in the process.

This is not a stab in the dark; there's no doubt that the oil is there. In the past, 93 million barrels of oil have been produced on the land the company owns now. But thanks to the company's state-of-the-art technology, management expects to be able to unlock many more millions or billions of barrels of to date inaccessible or uneconomical oil.

In fact, all of management is invested heavily in the company, which is always a good sign—one of its directors, for example, owns more than 1.2 million shares.

(By the way, the country where this deposit is located is forced to import more than 700,000 barrels of oil per day from Russia, a balance of power that could shift dramatically with this new windfall—so chances are good that the government will enthusiastically support the new oil production.)

Since our initial recommendation, Casey Energy Report subscribers already made gains of up to 66.4% from this company—but this is not a one-hit wonder whose fame fades as fast as it started. If the deposit indeed has what we think it does in recoverable reserves, the company could generate exceptional profits for years on end.

You can get my comprehensive special report "The Next Bakken… and the Small Company Best Positioned to Take Advantage" free if you try the Casey Energy Report today, for 3 months, with full money-back guarantee. Click here for more details on the "Next Bakken."

Is an oil glut on the way in 2014? Raymond James Analyst's makes contrarian forecast

One of our favorite analyst in the oil patch is Andrew Coleman of Raymond James Equity Research. Coleman is making news this week as he is making a contrarian forecast with his call for an oil glut in 2014. Shale oil production is on the ascent, with the United States joining Saudi Arabia on the supply side, while China’s hunger for oil may be sliding and demand in developed countries remains in decline.

In this interview with The Energy Report, Coleman explains his thinking and names the producers best positioned to capitalize on the turbulence ahead.

The Energy Report: Why are you expecting an oil glut in 2014?

Andrew Coleman: Because of the evolution of North American shale oil plays, we are on track to add about 3 million barrels (3 MMbbl) of new supply over the next five years. Yet we know oil demand has been falling across the developed nations and is still weak coming out of the global financial crisis. Those developments point toward a glut.

TER: Saudi Arabia surprised you last year by cutting production when oil was more than $110 per barrel ($110/bbl). Why would Saudi or other suppliers not do that again?

AC: What hurt production outside the U.S. last year and helped keep the demand side a little more in balance was that Saudi cut 800,000 barrels a day (800 Mbbl/d) in Q4/12, sanctions in Iran reduced exports by about 800 Mbbl/d as well, conflict in Sudan took 300 Mbbl/d offline and the North Sea average was lower by about 130 Mbbl/d. These reductions kept last year's supply more balanced than we thought it would be. Going forward, Saudi's ability or willingness to cut is certainly going to be tested, because by our model the country may need to cut 1.5 million barrels a day (1.5 MMbbl/d), about double what it cut last year. It would have to do that for a longer period of time, given the amount of excess storage that could show up on the global markets.

TER: But, as you just pointed out, Saudi Arabia's cut came in the context of actions by other players. The other players are going to be as unpredictable as they were last year, aren't they?

AC: Certainly. That's a big risk to our call. The other players are very unpredictable as well. I think Saudi has two years of foreign currency reserves at its current spending level. The country doesn't have a deficit right now, so the question is, would it be willing to tolerate a deficit? Most other countries have deficits, but that doesn't mean Saudi will. It is hard to predict because we're dealing with personalities and governments, as opposed to hard numbers. We're going to keep watching, and we'll adjust our forecast if some of those scenarios play out.

TER: Was Saudi Arabia's production cut driven by a policy change?

AC: Saudi Arabia cited internal demand issues in its production cut. The cut may also reflect an adjustment to offset the start-up of Manifa, which occurred last month.

TER: If the glut does occur, which benchmark crudes will be most affected, whether by going up or going down?

AC: In the U.S., production of light oil will dramatically increase due to the shales. Without the ability to export, we are already seeing prices of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) reflecting that "stranded" lighter barrel. We see light imports being backed out of the U.S. as early as this summer as well. Finally, as infrastructure bottlenecks are removed onshore, we see risk to Gulf Coast prices (e.g., Light Louisiana Sweet). With much of the U.S. refinery infrastructure having been geared to process heavier barrels, the large growth in light barrels has already driven WTI prices to a discount with Brent. Risks to Brent could come down the road if European and Chinese demand remains tepid.

TER: Will Venezuela's production decline continue?

AC: With Nicolas Maduro running things down there now, we see Venezuelan production remaining flat for the next couple of years. Volumes declined each of the past four years.

TER: What role will other players in the oil space have in either creating or preventing the glut?

AC: Prior to about 2009, we were in a world where there was one marginal producer of oil (Saudi), and one marginal buyer of oil (China). Now we're in a world that has two marginal suppliers of oil, those being the U.S. and Saudi. We have not added any new marginal buyers of oil. The question remains, is that marginal buyer of oilChinaas hungry for oil as it has been in the past? We also know that as economies develop, they become less energy intensive. And, factoring in the potential growth of natural gas consumption, that drives our caution.

TER: Denbury Resources Inc. (DNR:NYSE) depends heavily on CO2 flood for its production. Will that be economically feasible if a glut occurs?

AC: Yes. Denbury is profitable in the $50 per barrel ($50/bbl) range. Most of its current production comes from older oilfields that it owns on the Gulf Coast. The company's CO2 is also on the Gulf Coastin fact, the company has the only naturally occurring CO2 source outside the Rocky Mountains. And it has the advantage of a pipeline that ties those CO2 assets to its producing fields on the coast. Because the oil is produced next to the infrastructure used to refine it, Denbury doesn't have to spend a lot of money on transportation, which helps the economics.

"The evolution of North American shale oil plays has us on track to add 3 MMbbl of new supply over the next five years."

I'm not worried about Denbury being able to economically produce oil because it is cycling CO2, an injection process by which the company puts CO2 in the ground, displacing (and producing) oil as it goes. The company doesn't have to drill hundreds of wells every year to increase production. All it has to do is get the facilities working and then maintain them, versus continually deploying a lot of new capital in the ground each year.

TER: CO2 flooding is not necessarily more expensive than drilling brand new wells, is that correct?

AC: Correct. The two processes present different sets of challenges. If you are going to drill new wells, you need to come up with the drilling rig, well tubulars, hydraulic fracturing fluids and frack sand, and you must build roads and pipelines to connect those wells. If you are going to do a CO2 project, you've got to get the CO2, which costs a little bit of money, and you need injection pumps. Much of the initial infrastructure (roads, wells, etc.) is already in place.

It is a slightly different business model but is still based on extracting additional barrels from historically large accumulations. Finding risk is very low, leaving the bulk of the costs as development in nature only. It's a business model that you don't see a lot in the exploration and production (EP) space. Most players with CO2 assets the ExxonMobils (XOM:NYSE), the Chevrons (CVX:NYSE), the ConocoPhillips (COP:NYSE) of the world have those assets embedded in much larger organizations, as part of their core businesses. Most of the EPs that we focus on, because of their growth nature, are drilling wells on a continual basis to replenish and add to production.

TER: With rare exceptions, Denbury has been stalled below $20/share for more than four years. You bumped your target price from $23 to $24 based on your pricing model. If the model says Denbury can reach that level, why hasn't it done so before?

AC: A few years ago, the company was bringing on one of its biggest fields, Tinsley. It was the largest project the company had undertaken up to that point and some operational hiccups caused it to miss some production targets. As a result, management initiated a stock buyback program, and added to the technical team by bringing in Craig McPherson from ConocoPhillips.

"With much of the U.S. refinery infrastructure geared to process heavier barrels, the large growth in light barrels has already driven WTI prices to a discount with Brent."

Over the last couple of years the company has put more process in place and structured its operations and technical teams to manage its multiple large-scale CO2 floods (aptly titled "Operations Excellence"). Over the last 18 months, management has slowly inched up its tertiary production outlook and now is saying it's going to come in at the high end of guidance. The guidance has slowly trended up as the company has been able to get more control on the operational side. That is why the stock has risen from where it was a couple of years ago, from $1112/share to where it is now ($18). To get into the twenties, it would be helpful to have a little bit of oil price support. It would also be helpful to see production growth expectations pick up as the company brings on more of its large-scale fields.

Management has also been discussing ways of accelerating cash flows from the build-out of its tertiary oil business. The creation of a master limited partnership (MLP) is one way, though management hasn't decided yet. If you look at how some EP MLPs are structured, you could make a case in which Denbury would trade from the mid twenties to the low thirties. My price target reflects continued execution as well as the potential of a little more color on how an MLP might work for the company.

TER: Do you think converting to an MLP would increase the value of the stock?

AC: Potentially. Assets with low maintenance capital do well in an MLP. Maintenance capital is the money needed to keep production flat. If you think about the CO2 floods, they might fit nicely because drilling capex is low. Once you get those facilities up and running, then incremental costs involve getting more CO2, as opposed to getting rigs and steel and frack sand, etc.

While Denbury may not, at this point, grow 4050% like some of the premier shale players, growing in the 1015% or maybe 1520% range could be attractive for an EP MLP. Investors would have long-term visibility on production growth and the company would be relatively stable, so it could then project the cash flow stream that could be dividended out to investors.

TER: Energy XXI (EXXI:NASDAQ) has posted disappointing results recently and management has announced a $250 million ($250M) buyback program. What does management hope to accomplish?

AC: Management is trying to draw attention to the fact that it expects to have free cash from the asset that it produces from, which is not something we've seen a lot of companies focus on historically in the EP business. Most EP companies are growth companies, with historically high levels of reinvestment of cash flows to fund future growth.

With Energy XXI recently taking production guidance down to 10% for the next 12 months, it's going to have a little more capital available to buy back shares. By my model, assuming the oil price is around $95/bbl net, the value of the company's proved reserves alone is somewhere in the $30/share range. If the company buys back shares for $25/share, that is 1520% cheaper than what the assets are worth. That gives the company no credit for any future drilling potential, too. Gulf Coast players tend to trade at some of the most conservative multiples in the EP peer group, but that doesn't reflect the fact that they generate a lot of cash flow.

TER: What's behind the disappointing results?

AC: The company had some exploration wells that didn't pan out. That happens when you drill wells with chances of success that are 30% or lower. The offset is when a high potential well of that magnitude works; it covers the cost of the past unsuccessful tries and then some! If you look at Energy XXI's capital budget, it has roughly $500600M of base capital for its base assets. It is going to spend $100200M on higher-risk, higher potential exploration stuff. So 15% of its annual program is directed at these high-risk/high-potential wells.

"Most EP companies are growth companies, with historically high levels of reinvestment of cash flows to fund future growth."

Over the last two or three years, management spent a lot of money on the Ultra-Deep Shelf (UDS),and it has recently started to balance that by adding exploration drilling around its existing fields. It signed joint ventures with Apache Corp. (APA:NYSE) and ExxonMobil and will test some play concepts that were generated in house, as well as working with its partners, McMoRan (MMR:NYSE) and Plains Exploration Production (PXP:NYSE) on the UDS. Freeport McMoRan Copper and Gold Inc. (FCX:NYSE) recently completed its acquisitions of McMoRan Exploration and Plains Exploration.

The reason Energy XXI missed production numbers was also partly due to lingering weather impacts from last fall's storm season.

TER: Energy XXI's initial strategy was to grow through acquisition, and it did have five large acquisitions, the last one completed in 2010. How well has it performed with the acquired assets?

AC: The acquired assets are probably 6070% of the inventory the company can drill now. Getting assets from Exxon, and a couple of years before that from Mit Energy Upstream, Energy XXI was able to high-grade and increase its inventory. Hopefully the company is done integrating the assets, but it's a continuous process to high-grade a portfolio, drill your best projects and optimize those projects as you go. I look to see that continue. In fact, Energy XXI recently brought its reserve engineering in house.

Over the last few years, partly because the company was smaller, it let third party engineers handle 100% of its reserves for year-end reporting. Most larger companies do that in house, and then use reserve engineers to audit the process for consistency. By bringing the engineering in house, Energy XXI is trying to show the market that it has a bigger organization that it has the bigger skill set and it wants to be more in tune with taking prospect sizes and prospect targets that match its capital program with expectations.

TER: What is the company's strategy now? Is it still planning acquisitions or it is going in new directions?

AC: The strategy continues essentially unchanged. First, it wants to invest in as many high IRR capital projects as it can. The CEO has said that for every dollar invested in the current year, he expects to get $1.502.00 in cash flow out of the ground. From that standpoint, the company can continue to spend money to get more returns, but it must balance that with trying to find the next company makers those bigger projects that support multiple well developments and new platforms.

For the organic portfolio, the company also has to manage whether it can buy assets that would consolidate parts of its fields in the Gulf of Mexico and do that at an attractive price. Energy XXI is always looking at acquisitions. It's always looking at optimizing the drilling program. With the share buyback, the company has tried to put a little more emphasis on the fact that it recognizes the value of cash flow to investors beyond the growth side of the EP business.

TER: Bonanza Creek Energy Inc. (BCEI:NYSE) has been a strong performer for you, but its recent earnings report was a miss right across the board. You've cut its target price from $41 to $40. What caused that miss?

AC: Coming out of last year and into Q1/13, Bonanza Creek had a slowdown in activity due to its rig schedule and winter weather. The company is in the right play in the Niobrara oil shale formation, where it is a small-cap player surrounded by Noble Energy Inc. (NBL:NYSE) and Anadarko Petroleum Corp. (APC:NYSE). It was getting its program ramped up in earnest, but the slowdown caused it to come in below expectations for the quarter. In all fairness, at Bonanza's analyst meeting in April, management discussed the slower start to the year.

"If the price spread between oil and natural gas remains wide, we'll see continued evolution toward natural gas use across our economy."

Fundamentally, Bonanza stock still is under leveraged. Its debt is less than current cash flow; it's going to grow north of 60% this year; it continues to have access to inventory; and it is testing multiple zones to increase its inventory potential. From that standpoint, the stock still looks compelling and still has lots of growth in front of it. That is why I only took the target down by a dollar.

TER: You make it sound like growth is simply built into the company's current direction. Does Bonanza not need to improve something in operations to get results?

AC: Not really. Bonanza Creek's going to drill 70+ wells this year in the Niobrara. It is testing 5-acre downspacing in the Cotton Valley, it is testing long laterals in the Niobrara B bench and it is testing the Codell zone for the Niobrara as well as the C bench in the Niobrara.

It doesn't need to do anything more than continue drilling and hit its targets in terms of ramping the rig count. With four operated rigs presently, the company is doing everything that management said it would do and that allows Bonanza, based on my bottom-up activity model, to hit my $40/share target.

Additionally, across the play you've got the LaSalle Plant, which DCP Midstream Partners, L.P. (DPM:NYSE) is building. The plant should come on line at the end of the summer. That provides additional capacity to enhance volume growth for players in the basin. The Niobrara is a play that works. You've got sufficiently large companies in the play to keep capital and facilities growing. Bonanza Creek is falling right in line there, and keeping up with its peers.

TER: What other companies are you excited about right now?

AC: My favorite stock is Anadarko. The biggest story for Anadarko will be the resolution of the Tronox Inc. bankruptcy case. After that, the company has numerous operational catalysts on the horizon, including 1) an ongoing process to partially monetize some of its Mozambique gas assets; 2) its Yucatan exploration well (operated by Royal Dutch Shell Plc (RDS.A:NYSE; RDS.B:NYSE) in the deepwater Gulf of Mexico; 3) the sale of its Brazilian assets; and 4) ongoing drilling/testing of its extensive onshore shale inventory (e.g. Niobrara, Eagle Ford, Marcellus and Utica).

The company has established itself as a premier explorer, and with the Tronox case resolved, Anadarko is also an attractive takeout candidate. In our net asset value (NAV) model, I see its shares as worth up to $130 each, but have assigned a $105 price target given visibility on near-term cash flows.

TER: Do you have any parting thoughts on the oil and/or gas markets that you'd like to share?

AC: Yes. From our macro view, we're cautious about the oil outlook. We've got a lot of production, and we're unclear about the strength of demand on the oil side in the next 618 months, going through 2014. On the gas side, after bottoming last year, gas looks like it is poised to be higher down the road, which makes us more constructive there. We have to see more evolution on the demand side, be it in the short term with power plant construction or in the longer term with the quest for use of compressed natural gas as a transportation fuel.

If the price spread between oil and natural gas remains wide, we'll see continued evolution toward natural gas use across our economy. That will be good for everybody. It should help unlock value for the manufacturing space. It should also unlock value for consumers, who won't have to spend quite so much to heat their homes and fuel their cars. It would ultimately kick-start the next big wave of economic expansion on the back of affordable natural gas in the U.S.

TER: Andrew, thank you for your time.

AC: My pleasure.

Andrew Coleman joined Raymond James Equity Research in July 2011 and co-heads the exploration and production team. Since 2004, he has covered the EP sector for Madison Williams, UBS and FBR Capital Markets. Coleman has also worked for BP Exploration and Unocal in a variety of global roles in petroleum and reservoir engineering, operations, business development and strategy. Coleman holds a bachelor's degree in petroleum engineering from Texas AM University and a master's degree in business administration (finance and accounting) with a specialization in energy finance from the University of Texas at Austin. He is a director for the National Association of Petroleum Investment Analysts and a member of the Texas AM Petroleum Engineering Industry Board, the Independent Petroleum Association of America's (IPAA) Capital Markets committee and the Society of Petroleum Engineers (SPE).

Posted courtesy of The Energy Report and our trading partners at INO.com


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EIA: Saudi Arabia was world's largest petroleum producer and net exporter in 2012

Saudi Arabia was the world's largest producer and exporter of petroleum and other liquids in 2012, producing an average of 11.6 million barrels per day (bbl/d) and exporting an estimated 8.6 million bbl/d (net). Saudi Arabia produces more than three times as much of these liquids as the next largest member of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (Iran), and as much as the rest of the Arab Middle East put together.

In addition to leading the world in production and exports, Saudi Arabia has an estimated 268 billion barrels of proved oil reserves, over 16% of the global total, and is the only country in the world with extensive spare oil production capacity, which can help cushion market disruptions. While Saudi Arabia has about a hundred major oil and natural gas fields, more than half of its proved reserves are contained in eight fields. Saudi Arabia's (and the world's) largest oil field (Ghawar) alone contains an estimated 70 billion barrels of proved reserves, more than the proved reserves in all but seven other countries.

 

In 2012, 16% of Saudi liquids exports were sent to the United States, accounting for 13% of total U.S. liquids imports. While Canada is the prime supplier of U.S. liquids imports, Saudi Arabia remains an important supplier.

Although leading the world in exports, Saudi Arabia's own liquids consumption is growing. Unlike the United States, Saudi Arabia uses significant amounts of oil for electricity generation, reaching as much as one million bbl/d during hot summer months. Electric demand has doubled since 2000 and is expected to continue its rapid growth. Without initiatives to facilitate fuel switching and increase efficiency, growing volumes of oil, expensive in relation to other fuels, will be consumed domestically.

Finally, as EIA has previously discussed, the choice of accounting conventions for measuring liquids production can also affect which country is considered the world's leading producer at a given date.

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Dennis Gartman: Sell into Strength, Crude Oil Rally Won’t Last

Energy bulls prepare for disappointment. Commodities pro Dennis Gartman doesn’t think any rally in oil will be sustainable.

“I don’t see how an advance can be sustainable,” says Gartman. “The amount of oil [CLCV1  84.46  0.71  (+0.85%)] coming onto the market - is overwhelming.”

First and foremost Gartman believes Saudi Arabia intends to keep the world well supplied because they want to keep prices low and squeeze Iran, which is more susceptible to lower oil. (Saudi Arabia and Iran are longtime rivals with Tehran openly challenging the legitimacy of the royal House of Saud.)

LIGHT CRUDE AUG2 (CLCV1) 84.46     0.71  (+0.85%%) New York Mercantile Exchange

But that's not the only negative catalyst for oil.

In addition, Gartman believes the market will be well supplied due to discoveries made right here in the US such as the massive discovery in North Dakota’s Bakken Shale.

And Gartman thinks the abundance of nat gas in the US is negative for oil because trucking companies have a strong incentive to convert their fleet to alternative energy.

All told, “I can see the rally in oil lasting another $2-$3 dollars but any bounce should be sold,” he says. “At the end of the day, I’d be a seller."

Investor Dennis Gartman tells "Fast Money" which way he thinks crude oil will be going in the second half of this year.

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SABIC and ExxonMobil to Proceed with Specialty Elastomers Project at Al-Jubail

Saudi Basic Industries Corporation (SABIC) and affiliates of ExxonMobil announced today they will construct a world scale specialty elastomers facility at the Al-Jubail Petrochemical Company (Kemya) manufacturing joint venture.

The facility will be integrated with the existing Jubail complex and is expected to be completed in 2015. The companies have approved the next stage of project development, engineering, procurement and construction (EPC).

The facility will have the capacity to produce up to 400,000 tonnes per year of rubber. Including halobutyl, styrene butadiene, polybutadiene, and ethylene propylene diene monomer (EPDM) rubbers, thermoplastic specialty polymers, and carbon black to serve local markets, the Middle East and Asia. Kemya has awarded the EPC contract for the elastomers facility to Technip, Tecnicas Reunidas and Daelim.

Kemya is a 50-50 joint venture between SABIC and Exxon Chemical Arabia Inc., an affiliate of ExxonMobil Chemical Company. The two companies have collaborated closely since 1980 when they established the joint venture, which produces polyethylene, ethylene, and propylene. The new synthetic rubber project represents a significant broadening of Kemya’s product portfolio.

Find out more about this venture at ExxonMobils Newsroom.

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Saudi Arabia Edges Out Russia as the Biggest Oil Producer

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Saudi Arabia boosted crude production close to a 31 year high in March, overtaking Russia as the world’s largest oil producer for the first time in six years, according to the Joint Organization Data Initiative.

Saudi crude exports rose 3 percent in March, reaching the highest level in five years as Iran cut shipments, according to government statistics posted today on the initiative’s website.

Saudi Arabia, OPEC’s largest producer, increased daily output to 9.923 million barrels in March, up 0.7 percent to the second highest level since at least 1980, according to the initiative. That topped output from Russia, which pumped 9.920 million barrels a day, for the first time since February 2006, according to the data.

The initiative, known as JODI, is supervised by the Riyadh based International Energy Forum and compiles data provided by member governments. The IEF is a group of nations accounting for more than 90 percent of global oil and natural gas supply and demand, established as a forum for producing and consuming countries to discuss energy security.....Read the entire article.

This should create some controversy, when is the best time of day to profit?

Blackstones Wien Bearish on Crude Oil for First Time

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Byron Wien, the 79 year old chairman of Blackstone Group LP’s advisory services unit, is forecasting an annual drop in oil prices for the first time in his career as swelling production pushes global inventories higher.

Wien, who joined the world’s biggest private equity firm in 2009, said the U.S. will extract more crude by fracking rocks and expects the furor over a potential conflict with Iran to dissipate. Brent crude lost 2.8 percent last month after surging 14 percent in the first quarter on concern Iran may disrupt Middle East exports in retaliation for a European oil embargo.

Russia and Saudi Arabia, the biggest crude producers, are pumping near record levels, helping push February inventories in developed nations to the equivalent of 59.6 days of demand, the most since 2009, according to the International Energy Agency.

“The Iran premium is going to come out of the price of Brent,” Wien, who was previously a chief strategist at Morgan Stanley, said in an April 26 television interview on “Bloomberg Surveillance” with Tom Keene. “There’s an Iran premium in the price of oil, thinking that Israel will strike Iran, and I don’t think Israel will”.......Read the entire Bloomberg article.

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Was There an Explosion or Not?

Commodity traders rode a see saw session as markets spiked on news of an oil pipeline explosion in Saudi Arabia. Only to trader lower as Saudi officials deny that any event took place at all.

Still, crude oil closed higher on Thursday extending the rebound off Tuesday's low. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

If April extends this winter's rally, the 2011 high crossing at 114.09 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 103.09 would confirm that a short term top has been posted.

First resistance is last Friday's high crossing at 109.95. Second resistance is the 2011 high crossing at 114.09. First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 106.78. Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 103.09.

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OilPrice: China to Aid Saudi Arabia in Nuclear

Ever since the end of World War Two, the U.S. has come to regard Saudi Arabia as almost its exclusive oil producing enclave.

In February 1945, after the Yalta Conference with Soviet General Secretary Iosif Stalin and British Prime Minister Winston Churchill, on his way home U.S. President Franklin Delano Roosevelt and King Ibn Saud met aboard the New Orleans class heavy cruiser U.S.S. Quincy in the Suez Canal’s Great Bitter Lake. During the meeting, instigated by Roosevelt, he and Ibn Saud concluded a secret agreement in which the U.S. would provide Saudi Arabia military security, including military assistance, training and a military base at Dhahran in Saudi Arabia, in exchange for secure access to supplies of oil.

Sixty seven years later, my, how things have changed, as China is now muscling into the Kingdom of the Two Holy Places.

On 15 January Visiting Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao and Saudi Arabian King Abdullah bin Abdul Aziz agreed to make concerted efforts to enhance bilateral relations. The spectacle of OPEC’s leading petro-state and East Asia’s superpower economy making common cause has surely caused the burning of the midnight oil inside the Beltway.

While Wen said that China is willing to strengthen coordination with Saudi Arabia on all major issues by expanding cooperation in trade, investment, infrastructure, high-tech, finance, security and law enforcement, what must have surely caught the eye of Washington’s mandarins was him adding that China intends to develop a cooperative partnership with Saudi Arabia in the energy sector.

And why not? Saudi Arabia is the largest supplier of oil to China and bilateral trade between the two countries soared to $58.5 billion in the period January-November 2011.

And the fruits of such bilateral proximity were on the table even before Wen made his fulsome remarks, as the state-owned Saudi Press Agency reported on 14 January that Saudi state oil giant Aramco has signed an agreement with state owned giant China Petroleum and Chemical Corporation Ltd. (Sinopec) to build an oil refinery, named Yasref, in the Red Sea city of Yanbu, which will become operational in 2014, processing 400,000 barrels per day.

What is really going to catch Washington’s and the foreign investment community’s attention is how the agreement is structured, Saudi Aramco will hold a 62.5 percent stake with Sinopec holding the remainder.

In one of 2012’s greatest understatements, Aramco president and CEO Khalid al-Falih said that the contract "represents a strategic partnership in the refining industry between one of the main energy producers in Saudi Arabia and one of the world's most important consumers."
Continuing his victory lap around the western shores of the Persian Gulf, Wen will also visit Qatar and the United Arab Emirates, two other stalwart U.S. allies.
And the eastern side of the Gulf?

Commenting on Iran, China’s third largest source of oil imports, on 11 January Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Liu Weimin said at a press briefing that China will maintain its trade ties with Iran despite efforts by U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner to convince Beijing to join a proposed embargo of Iranian oil exports.

But perhaps the most intriguing element of the Riyadh-Beijing lovefest was the announcement that on 15 January Saudi Arabia signed an agreement with China for cooperation in the development and use of atomic energy for peaceful purposes, an event of significant importance that both Abdullah and Wen attended.

No comment is really needed here, except to note that many of the questions asked about Iran’s civilian nuclear power program, such as why does a leading "petro state" need nuclear energy, are unlikely to be asked about this particular venture, underling that once again, reality in the Middle East is whatever your perceptions tell you in advance it is.

Posted courtesy of John C.K. Daly at Oilprice.com


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OPEC Agrees to 30 Million Barrel Output Limit

OPEC decided to increase its production ceiling to 30 million barrels a day, the first change in three years, moving the group’s supply target nearer to current output. “We have an agreement to maintain the market in balance and we’re going to adjust the level of production of each country to open space for Libyan production,” Venezuelan Energy Minister Rafael Ramirez said after the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries meeting ended today in Vienna.

The group won’t set individual quotas for each member nation, a person with knowledge of OPEC policy said earlier today while the ministers were still in talks. The 30 million barrel a day limit is for all of OPEC’s 12 member nations, including Iraq and Libya, United Arab Emirates Oil Minister Mohamed al-Hamli said after the meeting ended.

OPEC is raising its quota to more closely match actual production while at the same time gauging the possibility of a slowing global economy and rising Libyan supply. Its last meeting in June broke up without consensus when six members including Iran and Venezuela opposed a formal push to pump more oil by Saudi Arabia and three.....Read the entire Bloomberg article.


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Phil Flynn: Dreariness And Downgrades

Ben Bernanke bank downgrades and unrest in Saudi Arabia. You know things are bad when the market seems to be relieved that Italy was downgraded. Is that all? Such is the fate of the global oil market that is now living and dying with the wild mood swings of perception on the outlook for the stability of the global economy. Stories that oil traders use to live and die with somehow seem not to matter quite as much.

Oil prices took out the low for the year just to spite me but is rebounding as global stock markets try to rebound. If there is a sense of economic stability, oil prices may focus on some of the things that might have rallied us yesterday. The market that is fighting fear and seasonal weakness was able to ignore reports of riots in Saudi Arabia and some bullish American Petroleum Institute data.

You know the market seems comfortable with the supply side when unrest in Saudi Arabia only seems to barley register on price. Had this happened just a few months ago, oil might have rallied $5 or $10 a barrel or more. A Shiite uprising in the oil producing Eastern Provence led to injuries to at least 11 Saudi Arabian security forces and the Saudis are inferring that perhaps Iran is to blame. The Iranians would love to cause chaos in Saudi Arabia as the Iranian regime is becoming a greater threat to the region.

Maybe that proves that money can't buy you love or security as the Saudis have spent big bucks trying to make the discontented happy. Of course when you have the scourge of Iran trying to foster unrest and instability in the region it does not help. Now that the OPEC crude oil basket fell below $100 a barrel for the first time since the beginning of the Libyan uprising, perhaps they may have to find other ways to buy love.

The API added some bullish support with numbers that surprised the most bullish among us. The market should be shocked as the API reported a 3.07 million barrel drop in crude supply and a whopping 4.97 barrel drop in gasoline supply. To round off the bullish report we saw a 1.97 million barrel drop in distillates. These are the type of numbers that should give us a short term bottom unless we get the feeling that we will see a disorderly Greek default or something.

With Ben Bernanke telling us he stands ready to act if bad things happen, it should make oil bulls feel pretty good at least for a little while. Ben helped restore a bit of confidence but still many markets are disjointed and people are questioning traditional market relationships. Is gold a safe harbor if we go into a deflationary tailspin or is it safe if things heat up in Saudi Arabia? Can you hide in oil as alternative? Or are bonds the only safe place to run to! The twist is working rate rise but will it put money back to work and make banks lend? The topsy turvy mood swings mean one thing! Get ready for some major moves!


You can catch Phil everyday on the Fox Business Network. You can also contact Phil directly at pflynn@pfgbest.com

OPEC’s $1 Trillion Cash Quiets Poor of the Middle East

Saudi Arabia will spend $43 billion on its poorer citizens and religious institutions. Kuwaitis are getting free food for a year. Civil servants in Algeria received a 34 percent pay rise. Desert cities in the United Arab Emirates may soon enjoy uninterrupted electricity.

Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries members are poised to earn an unprecedented $1 trillion this year, according to the U.S. Energy Department, as the group’s benchmark oil measure exceeded $100 a barrel for the longest period ever. They are promising to plow record amounts into public and social programs after pro democracy movements overthrew rulers in Tunisia, Egypt and Libya and spread to Yemen and Syria.

Unlike past booms, when Abu Dhabi bought English soccer club Manchester City and Qatar acquired a stake in luxury carmaker Porsche SE, Gulf nations pledged $150 billion in additional spending this year on their citizens. They will need to keep U.S. benchmark West Texas Intermediate crude oil at more than $80 a barrel to afford their promises, according to Bank of America Corp.....Read the entire article.

OPEC Expected to Keep Oil Production Quota Unchanged

OPEC will probably keep its production quota unchanged when it meets on Dec. 11 in Ecuador, ministers from Angola, Venezuela and Libya said. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries considers oil at $80 to $85 a barrel a “comfortable price,” Angola’s Minister of Petroleum Jose Maria Botelho de Vasconcelos said yesterday. Crude traded around $86 a barrel in New York today. Venezuela’s energy minister Rafael Ramirez, who said he prefers a price level of $100 a barrel, told reporters in Doha today that the group will likely maintain its existing output target.

“The current environment is of some stability,” Angola’s Vasconcelos said in an interview. “The sentiment among members is for maintaining the production level.” Libya’s top oil official, Shokri Ghanem, said yesterday in Doha that the organization will seek stricter compliance with the current production target. OPEC, which produces about 40 percent of the world’s oil, hasn’t changed its formal limit since December 2008, when it announced record supply cuts and a quota of 24.845 million barrels a day.

The group’s adherence to that level has faltered as recovering demand and rising prices encourage members to exceed their individual allocations. Compliance among the 11 nations bound by quotas slipped to 51 percent in October, according to data from the group published on Nov. 11. Qatari Energy Minister Abdullah bin Hamad al-Attiyah said today he won’t attend the Dec. 11 gathering in Quito, Ecuador.

Angola’s Vasconcelos said he expects the country’s oil production to increase to 1.9 million barrels a day next year, close to its maximum capacity. Angola pumped an average of 1.73 million barrels a day in November, according to a Bloomberg survey of producers and analysts on Nov. 30. OPEC’s 12 members are Algeria, Angola, Ecuador, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Libya, Nigeria, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Venezuela. Iraq is exempt from the quota system.

Posted courtesy of Bloomberg News

Bloomberg reporter Grant Smith can be reached at gsmith52@bloomberg.net

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Saudi Arabia: Peak Oil Forecasts Are Ridiculous Because We'll Keep Prices Cheap For A Very Long Time

Saudi Arabia's Prince Turki Al Faisal Al Saud has thrown cold water on forecasts for an oil price superspike, speaking to energy industry peers at Rice University. His nation has the capacity to handle surging demand from both China and other rapidly developing nations.

While many energy analysts are predicting a sharp increase in oil prices in the coming months as a worldwide economic recovery takes hold and demand from China and India increases, Saudi Arabia says it will work to mitigate that rise. Saudi Prince Turki Al Faisal Al Saud says his country has the capacity to play that role for some decades to come.

In his speech to energy industry representatives and academics at the Baker Institute for Public Policy at Rice University, Prince Turki Al Faisal Al Saud emphasized his nation's commitment to a stable oil market. He said the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia's ample oil reserves of over 264 billion proven barrels give it the power to offset sharp increases in demand.

"As the demand for oil continues to rise, especially in China and India, the kingdom has every intention of meeting that demand," said the prince.

As for the Saudi prince's call for more transparent reporting on energy use in China and other large consumer nations, Jaffe says this could help control speculation and stabilize the market.
"There are questions about Chinese oil demand," said Jaffe. "Were they buying for their strategic reserve or was that fundamental growth in demand? When the market cannot know for sure you get these movements in price."

Thus price surges are more the result of market confusion and speculation rather than long term fundamentals, he seems to believe.

Posted courtesy of The Business Insider

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Crude Oil Rises a Second Day on Chinese Manufacturing, U.S. Stimulus Speculation

Crude oil rose for a second day to trade near a two week high on speculation the Federal Reserve will take steps to stimulate the U.S. economy and on accelerating growth in China, the world’s largest energy consumer. Crude climbed above $83 a barrel before a Fed meeting where policy makers may announce a plan to buy at least $500 billion of long term securities, according to economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. Manufacturing in China and the U.S. increased in October, data yesterday showed. Consuming countries are happy with oil between $70 and $90 a barrel, said Ali al-Naimi, Saudi Arabia’s oil minister.

“Market participants want to see the result of the Fed meeting,” said Ken Hasegawa, a commodity derivative sales manager at brokers Newedge in Tokyo. “For the rest of the year, the market should be sustained around this level. Like the Saudi minister said, that’s a pretty happy price for everyone.” Crude for December delivery rose as much as 50 cents, or 0.6 percent, to $83.45 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. It was at $83.37 at 12:05 p.m. Singapore time. Yesterday, the contract rallied $1.52, or 1.9 percent, to $82.95, the highest settlement since Oct. 18. Futures have gained 5.1 percent in 2010.

The Fed, meeting in Washington today and tomorrow, is expected to restart a program of securities purchases to spur growth, reduce unemployment and increase inflation, said 53 of 56 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News......Read the entire article.


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Crude Oil Decline as Dollar Strengthens Against the Euro and Yen

Crude oil fell for a second day after the dollar strengthened, reducing the appeal of commodities as an investment, and as Saudi Arabia signaled that OPEC may leave oil production quotas unchanged. The dollar yesterday climbed from an eight month low against the euro and a 15 year low to the yen. The currency had retreated earlier on speculation the Federal Reserve will signal it’s willing to buy more government debt to spur economic growth.

OPEC may leave oil production quotas unchanged when it meets this week after Saudi Arabian Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi described the market as “very well balanced,” and said an oil price between $70 and $80 a barrel is “ideal.” “The dollar is so heavily sold at the moment, creating the opportunity for a bit of strength in the dollar and softness in oil,” Mark Pervan, head of commodity research at Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd. in Melbourne, said by phone. “You would be leaning toward a softer oil price this week.”

Crude for November delivery fell as much as 66 cents, or 0.8 percent, to $81.55 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, and was at $81.62 at 12:14 p.m. Singapore time. Yesterday, prices lost 0.5 percent to $82.21. Futures last week recorded a third consecutive weekly gain, the longest stretch since June. Brent crude for November settlement declined as much as 0.8 percent to $83.07 a barrel. The contract slipped 31 cents, or 0.4 percent, yesterday to $83.72 on the ICE Futures Europe exchange in London......Read the entire article.


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Will China Supersede Saudi Arabia as the Key to U.S. Oil Prices?

BY KEITH FITZ-GERALD, Chief Investment Strategist, Money Morning

I bought a Toyota Prius last Saturday.

The signs are everywhere that oil is headed for stratospheric highs, $200, $250 or even $300 a barrel. Some of these signs are just plain obvious. But even the subtle indicators are telling us that some very expensive energy costs headed our way.

Let me tell you about one such indicator that I came across over the New Year holiday. A tiny news item said that Saudi Arabian oil concern Aramco is abandoning a lease on Caribbean oil storage, and further reported that PetroChina Co. Ltd. (NYSE ADR: PTR) is moving in to take Aramco's place.

Most investors here in the West - if they even read the item - would've dismissed it as just another minor business transaction, one among the thousands that take place each day. But this particular deal was much more than that. It's another indication of China's continued global emergence. And it also underscores this country's relegation to the growing legion of "former" world powers that have been eviscerated by the financial crisis that they created.

In case you missed the story, let me share the details, and then explain what I believe those details actually mean.

On the last day of the year, the state-owned Saudi Aramco walked away from a 5 million barrel storage capacity lease at the Statia Terminals Group NV facility on St. Eustatius Island in the Caribbean. Ordinarily that wouldn't be significant. After all, oil leases come and go - change is a normal part of doing business.

But two facts make this transaction different:

First, Aramco had renewed this lease - which accounts for 38% of the total storage capacity on the island - since 1995 as a means of staging oil near its primary market: The United States.

And, second, with Aramco's departure, PetroChina, China's state-run oil company, has opted to move in.

From a strict numbers standpoint, I grant you that a 5-million-barrel facility doesn't appear significant. That much oil will meet U.S. energy needs for all of about five hours. And it equates to less than 1% of the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve, which holds about 726.6 million barrels of oil. So it's not like China will suddenly have a lock on the U.S. oil market.....Read the entire article.



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Oil To Lift Gulf States In 2010, Debt Remains Concern

Arab Gulf states may get a boost from higher oil prices in 2010 but the region's real estate and banking sectors still face head winds. "We are going to see an improvement in macro economic conditions, mainly due to higher oil prices, which will trickle down to corporate activity," said Faisal Hassan, head of research at Global Investment House. The United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia and four other Arab Gulf states depend heavily on revenue from oil exports, which still provide about 60% of the regions foreign currency earnings.

Oil prices have more than doubled from lows of about $35 a barrel at the beginning of 2009 as fear of global economic Armageddon has given way to optimism about a recovery led from Asia. New York Mercantile Exchange crude futures averaged just above $62 a barrel in 2009, according to Zawya Dow Jones calculations. Saudi Arabia, the Middle East's economic powerhouse and its biggest oil producer, is expected to see real gross domestic product grow by 3% in 2010, after successfully averting contraction this year, according to Kuwait's Global. The kingdom is expected to record marginal real GDP growth of 0.15% in 2009.....Read the entire article.

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Saudi Aramco CEO: Sluggish Demand in West Not Offset by China

Oil demand remains "sluggish" throughout the developed world, and growth in China isn't making up for the loss, said Saudi Aramco CEO Khalid Al Falih. "It will take time to make up for the millions of barrels of lost demand that we have experienced," said Al Falih, the head of Saudi Arabia's state oil company, in an interview to air Monday evening on the Nightly Business Report on PBS. "But ultimately, it will come."

Saudi Arabia, the world's biggest oil exporter, is seeing its efforts pay off to hold down production within the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries. While supplies are higher than normal worldwide, prices are holding steady around $70 a barrel, roughly where Al Falih said it is necessary to encourage investment in new production. Al Falih was interviewed .....Read the entire article

Oil Options Hit Highs as Verleger Predicts 44% Plunge

Oil traders are paying more than ever in the options market to protect against a plunge in crude prices. The gap between prices of options betting on a decline and those that would profit from a rise in oil widened to a record 10 percentage points, according to five years of data compiled by Bank of America Securities Merrill Lynch. Crude stockpiles in the U.S. are 14 percent larger than a year ago and OPEC is pumping 600,000 barrels a day more than the world needs, according to the International Energy Agency.

While the recovery from the first global recession since World War II pushed oil up 62 percent this year to $72.04 a barrel in New York, growth alone isn’t likely to erode the glut by the end of next year because production exceeds demand, data from the Paris based IEA shows. A drop in prices would penalize companies from Exxon Mobil Corp. to BP Plc and exporters.....Read entire article