You pushed oil higher on Friday....was it China Demand or Middle East Disruption?

September crude oil closed higher ending a five day correction off last Friday's high. Yet shares of some top oil companies were down at the close of trading on Friday. BP fell $.01 to $41.27, Chevron fell $.57 or .5 percent, to $122.50, ConocoPhillips fell $.26 or .4 percent, to $66.83, Exxon Mobil Corp. fell $.43 or .5 percent, to $90.72, Marathon Oil Corp. fell $.12 or .3 percent, to $34.55. The high range close in Sept. oil sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term.

Closes in oil below last Tuesday's low crossing at 102.67 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. Closes above July's high crossing at 108.93 would renew this summer's rally while opening the door for a possible test of weekly resistance crossing at 110.55 later this summer. First resistance is July's high crossing at 108.93. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 110.55. First support is last Tuesday's low crossing at 102.67. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the April-July rally crossing at 100.27.

The September S&P 500 closed lower on Friday. The mid range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 1687.33 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. If September extends the rally off June's low, upside targets will now be hard to project with the index trading into uncharted territory. First resistance is last Friday's high crossing at 1705.00. Second resistance is unknown with September trading into uncharted territory. First support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 1687.33. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 1670.50.

October gold closed higher on Friday. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. Today's close above the 10 day moving average crossing at 1307.90 confirms that a short term low has been posted. If October renews the decline off July's high, July's low crossing at 1208.50 is the next downside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 1339.40. Second resistance is July's high crossing at 1348.00. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 1272.10. Second support is July's low crossing at 1208.50.

September Henry natural gas closed lower on Friday leaving Thursday's key reversal up unconfirmed. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If September extends this year's decline, psychological support crossing at 3.000 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 3.520 would confirm that a short term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 3.349. Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 3.520. First support is Thursday's low crossing at 3.129. Second support is psychological support crossing at 3.000.

Last but not least, our favorite trade for 2013.....September coffee closed higher on Friday and the high range close set the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. Today's close above the 20 day moving average crossing at 122.22 confirms that a short term low has been posted. If September extends this week's rally, the reaction high crossing at 126.50 is the next upside target.

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Crude Oil Bulls Continue to Fade Despite Positive News out of China

The U.S. stock indexes closed firmer today. The stock index bulls still have the solid overall near term technical advantage as prices hover not far below the recent for the move highs. Chinese economic data released overnight was bullish for most of the market place and especially for the raw commodity sector. China exports were up a much higher than expected 5.1% year on year in July, compared to a 3.1% drop in June.

Chinese imports rose by a much higher than expected 11%, year on year. The European Central Bank released a forecast Thursday that shows it expects Euro zone economic growth to contract by 0.6% in 2013, citing weak consumer demand worldwide. The ECB forecast Euro zone growth in 2014 at up 0.9%. The ECB report comes out at a time when recent Euro zone economic data has shown generally slight improvement.

September Nymex crude oil closed down $0.87 at $103.49 today. Prices closed near mid range today on more profit taking and weak long liquidation. Bulls still have the overall near term technical advantage but are fading. If prices back off on Friday then a bearish double top reversal pattern would be confirmed on the daily chart.

September natural gas closed up 6.9 cents at $3.315 today. Prices closed near the session high on short covering after hitting a fresh 13 1/2 month low early on today. The nat gas bears have the solid near term technical advantage, but may now be exhausted following the recent selling pressure. Prices are in a steep three month old downtrend on the daily bar chart.

December gold futures closed up $24.70 an ounce at $1,310.00 today. Prices closed nearer the session high and saw heavy short covering and some fresh bargain hunting. A lower U.S. dollar index also boosted the gold market again today. Gold bears still have the overall near term technical advantage. However, a bullish weekly high close on Friday would give the bulls some fresh upside near term technical momentum.

September silver futures closed up $0.682 an ounce at $20.19 today. Prices closed nearer the session high today and closed at a two week high close. Bears still have the near term technical advantage. A weaker U.S. dollar index today boosted the silver bulls.

September coffee closed up 65 points at 121.70 cents today. Prices closed near mid range today and saw more short covering in a bear market. The coffee bears still have the solid overall near term technical advantage.

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Crude oil falls as most analyst anticipate global slowdown

September crude oil closed lower on Monday as it consolidated some of last week's rally. The mid range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. Closes above July's high crossing at 108.93 would renew this summer's rally while opening the door for a possible test of weekly resistance crossing at 110.55 later this summer. Closes below last Tuesday's low crossing at 102.67 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. First resistance is July's high crossing at 108.93. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 110.55. First support is last Tuesday's low crossing at 102.67. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the April-July rally crossing at 100.27.

The September S&P 500 closed slightly lower on Friday as it consolidated some of Thursday's rally. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging and are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If September extends the rally off June's low, upside targets will now be hard to project with the index trading into uncharted territory. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 1677.36 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 1703.40. Second resistance is unknown with September trading into uncharted territory. First support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 1677.36. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 1670.50.

September Henry natural gas closed lower on Monday as it extends the decline off May's high. The mid range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If September extends this year's decline, weekly support crossing at 3.178 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 3.596 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 3.508. Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 3.596. First support is today's low crossing at 3.309. Second support is weekly support crossing at 3.178.

October gold closed lower on Monday. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that a short term top might be in or is near. Closes below last Friday's low crossing at 1282.50 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. If October renews the rally off June's low, the reaction high crossing at 1395.20 is the next upside target. First resistance is October's high crossing at 1348.00. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 1395.20. First support is last Friday's low crossing at 1282.50. Second support is July's low crossing at 1208.50.

And favorite trade for 2013....September coffee closed higher due to short covering on Monday as it consolidated some of the decline off July's high. The mid range close set the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 122.36 would confirm that a short term low has been posted.

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Crude oil post a downside reversal on Friday.....Is this all the bulls have for summer 2013

September crude oil posted a downside reversal on Friday after failing to take out July's high crossing at 108.93. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. Closes above July's high crossing at 108.93 would renew this summer's rally while opening the door for a possible test of weekly resistance crossing at 110.55 later this summer. Closes below Tuesday's low crossing at 102.67 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. First resistance is July's high crossing at 108.93. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 110.55. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 102.67. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the April-July rally crossing at 100.27.

The September S&P 500 closed slightly lower on Friday as it consolidated some of Thursday's rally. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging and are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If September extends the rally off June's low, upside targets will now be hard to project with the index trading into uncharted territory. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 1677.36 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 1703.40. Second resistance is unknown with September trading into uncharted territory. First support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 1677.36. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 1670.50.

October gold closed lower on Friday. A short covering rally tempered early session losses and the high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that a short term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 1297.40 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. If October renews the rally off June's low, the reaction high crossing at 1395.20 is the next upside target. First resistance is October's high crossing at 1348.00. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 1395.20. First support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 1297.40. Second support is July's low crossing at 1208.50.

September Henry natural gas closed lower on Friday as it extends the decline off May's high. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If September extends the aforementioned decline, the June 2012 low crossing at 3.294 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 3.616 would confirm that a short term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 3.616. Second resistance is July's high crossing at 3.833. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 3.341. Second support is the June 2012 low crossing at 3.294.

And of course....our new favorite trade. September coffee closed higher due to short covering on Friday as it consolidated some of the decline off July's high. The high range close set the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 122.55 would confirm that a short term low has been posted.

Are you ready to start trading crude oil? Advanced Crude Oil Study – 15 Minute Range

It's show me time for the crude oil bulls.....108.93 becomes the "line in the sand"

Thursdays close in crude oil above the 10 day moving average is giving crude oil bulls fresh momentum. What will they do with it? You know how we love Fridays, it tells us so much about the "will" of commercial traders.

September crude oil closed higher on Thursday following Wednesday's Petroleum Inventory that showed declining Midwest diesel supplies. Today's close above the 10 day moving average crossing at 105.80 confirmed that a short term low has been posted. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If September extends this week's rally, July's high crossing at 108.93 is the next upside target. Closes below Tuesday's low crossing at 102.67 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 108.06. Second resistance is July's high crossing at 108.93. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 102.67. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the April-July rally crossing at 100.27.

The September S&P 500 closed higher on Thursday and posted a new high for the year. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging and remain neutral to bearish hinting that a short term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 1673.69 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. If September extends the rally off June's low, upside targets will now be hard to project with the index trading into uncharted territory. First resistance is today's high crossing at 1702.00. Second resistance is unknown with September trading into uncharted territory. First support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 1673.69. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 1670.50.

October gold closed lower on Thursday while extending the trading range of the past eight days. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish hinting that a short term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 1292.70 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. If October renews the rally off June's low, the reaction high crossing at 1395.20 is the next upside target. First resistance is last Wednesday's high crossing at 1348.00. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 1395.20. First support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 1292.70. Second support is July's low crossing at 1208.50.

September Henry natural gas closed lower on Thursday as it extends the decline off May's high. The mid range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If September extends the aforementioned decline, the June 2012 low crossing at 3.294 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 3.630 would confirm that a short term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 3.630. Second resistance is July's high crossing at 3.833. First support is today's low crossing at 3.341. Second support is the June 2012 low crossing at 3.294.

And how much lower can coffee go? September coffee closed lower on Thursday and below June's low thereby renewing this year's decline. The low range close set the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 122.70 would confirm that a short term low has been posted.

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Short Covering Gives Crude Oil Bulls Hope.....Bears Still in Charge Here

September crude oil closed higher due to short covering on Wednesday as it consolidates some of the decline off July's high. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If September extends the decline off July's high, the 38% retracement level of the April-July rally crossing at 100.27 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10 day moving average crossing at 105.82 would confirm that a short term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 105.82. Second resistance is July's high crossing at 108.93. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 102.67. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the April-July rally crossing at 100.27.

The September S&P 500 also closed higher on Wednesday. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish hinting that a short term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 1669.72 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. If September renews the rally off June's low, upside targets will now be hard to project with the index trading into uncharted territory. First resistance is last Tuesday's high crossing at 1695.50. Second resistance is unknown with September trading into uncharted territory. First support is the reaction low crossing at 1670.50. Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 1669.73.

September Henry natural gas closed higher due to short covering on Wednesday as it consolidates some of this decline off May's high. The mid range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If September extends the aforementioned decline, January's low crossing at 3.350 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 3.645 would confirm that a short term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 3.645. Second resistance is July's high crossing at 3.833. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 3.418. Second support is January's low crossing at 3.350.

October gold closed lower on Wednesday while extending the trading range of the past seven days. The mid range close sets the stage for a steady opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish hinting that a short term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 1290.30 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. If October renews the rally off June's low, the reaction high crossing at 1395.20 is the next upside target. First resistance is last Wednesday's high crossing at 1348.00. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 1395.20. First support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 1290.30. Second support is July's low crossing at 1208.50.

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Crude oil closes below the 20 day moving average, does this confirm a near term top is in?

September crude oil closed lower on Tuesday and below the 20 day moving average crossing at 104.82 confirming that a short term top has been posted. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If September extends the decline off July's high, the 38% retracement level of the April-July rally crossing at 100.27 is the next downside target. If September renews the rally off April's low, weekly resistance crossing at 109.45 is the next upside target. First resistance is July's high crossing at 108.93. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 109.45. First support is today's low crossing at 102.67. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the April-July rally crossing at 100.27.

The September S&P 500 closed unchanged on Tuesday. The mid range close sets the stage for a steady opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bearish hinting that a short term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 1665.30 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. If September renews the rally off June's low, upside targets will now be hard to project with the next trading into uncharted territory. First resistance is last Tuesday's high crossing at 1695.50. Second resistance is unknown with September trading into uncharted territory. First support is the reaction low crossing at 1666.00. Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 1665.30.

October gold closed lower on Tuesday. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bearish hinting that a short term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 1286.50 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. If October extend the rally off June's low, the reaction high crossing at 1395.20 is the next upside target. First resistance is last Wednesday's high crossing at 1348.00. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 1395.20. First support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 1286.50. Second support is July's low crossing at 1208.50.

September Henry natural gas closed lower on Tuesday as it extends this decline off May's high. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If September extends the aforementioned decline, January's low crossing at 3.350 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 3.656 would confirm that a short term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 3.656. Second resistance is July's high crossing at 3.833. First support is today's low crossing at 3.418. Second support is January's low crossing at 3.350.

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Markets Close Slightly Lower as Traders Appear to be in Wait and See Mode

September crude oil closed slightly lower on Monday as it extended the decline off July's high. The mid range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. Multiple closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 104.56 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted. If September renews the rally off April's low, weekly resistance crossing at 109.45 is the next upside target. First resistance is July's high crossing at 108.93. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 109.45. First support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 104.56. Second support is the 25% retracement level of the April-July rally crossing at 103.27.

The September S&P 500 closed lower due to profit taking on Monday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning bearish hinting that a short term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 1661.54 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. If September renews the rally off June's low, upside targets will now be hard to project with the next trading into uncharted territory. First resistance is last Tuesday's high crossing at 1695.50. Second resistance is unknown with September trading into uncharted territory. First support is the reaction low crossing at 1666.00. Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 1661.54.

October gold closed higher on Monday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish hinting that a short term top might be in or is near. If October extend the rally off June's low, the reaction high crossing at 1395.20 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 1283.10 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. First resistance is last Wednesday's high crossing at 1348.00. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 1395.20. First support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 1283.10. Second support is July's low crossing at 1208.50.

September Henry natural gas closed lower on Monday as it extends this decline off May's high. The mid range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If September extends the aforementioned decline, January's low crossing at 3.350 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10 day moving average crossing at 3.671 would confirm that a short term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 3.671. Second resistance is July's high crossing at 3.833. First support is today's low crossing at 3.427. Second support is January's low crossing at 3.350.


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Have the crude oil bears taken the clear advantage?

September crude oil closed slightly lower on Friday as it extends this week's decline. The mid range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 104.15 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. If September renews the rally off April's low, weekly resistance crossing at 109.45 is the next upside target. First resistance is last Friday's high crossing at 108.93. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 109.45. First support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 104.15. Second support is today's low crossing at 103.90.

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The September S&P 500 closed lower due to profit taking on Friday. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish hinting that a short term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 1657.12 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. If September extends the rally off June's low, upside targets will now be hard to project with the next trading into uncharted territory. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 1695.50. Second resistance is unknown with September trading into uncharted territory. First support is the reaction low crossing at 1666.00. Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 1657.12.

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August gold closed higher on Friday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If August extend the rally off June's low, the reaction high crossing at 1394.00 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 1277.50 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 1348.70. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 1394.00. First support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 1277.50. Second support is June's low crossing at 1179.40.

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August Henry natural gas closed lower on Friday as it extends this week's decline. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If August extends this week's decline, the reaction low crossing at 3.546 is the next downside target. If August renews the rally, the reaction high crossing at 4.003 is the next upside target. First resistance is last Thursday's high crossing at 3.835. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 4.003. First support is the reaction low crossing at 3.546. Second support is January's low crossing at 3.365.

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Bears taking charge....Crude oil bulls struggle to trade above 20 day moving average

The September S&P 500 closed lower due to profit taking on Thursday. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but are turning neutral to bearish hinting that a short term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 1653.23 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. If September extends the rally off June's low, upside targets will now be hard to project with the next trading into uncharted territory. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 1695.50. Second resistance is unknown with September trading into uncharted territory. First support is the reaction low crossing at 1666.00. Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 1653.23.

September crude oil closed slightly higher on Thursday but remains below the 10 day moving average crossing at 106.43. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 103.77 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. If September renews the rally off April's low, weekly resistance crossing at 109.45 is the next upside target. First resistance is last Friday's high crossing at 108.93. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 109.45. First support is today's low crossing at 104.08. Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 103.77.

August Henry natural gas closed lower on Thursday and below the 20 day moving average crossing at 3.668 confirming that a short term top has been posted. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If August extends today's decline, the reaction low crossing at 3.546 is the next downside target. If August renews the rally, the reaction high crossing at 4.003 is the next upside target. First resistance is last Thursday's high crossing at 3.835. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 4.003. First support is the reaction low crossing at 3.546. Second support is January's low crossing at 3.365.

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Mid Week Commodities Report

May crude oil closed higher on Wednesday as it extended the rally off last week's low. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 10 day moving average crossing at 95.04 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted. If May renews this month's decline, the reaction low crossing at 91.84 is the next downside target.

May Henry natural gas closed higher on Wednesday. The mid range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging and are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If May extends the rally off February's low, the reaction high crossing at 4.290 is the next upside target. Closes below last Thursday's low crossing at 3.861 would confirm that a short term top has been posted.

April gold closed sharply lower on Wednesday. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish hinting that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 1589.30 would confirm that a short term low has been posted. If April renews last week's decline, the June 2011 low crossing at 1504.00 is the next downside target.

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Crude Oil Bulls Take New Momemtun into Fridays Trading Session

Crude oil closed higher on Thursday and above the 50% retracement level of this year's decline crossing at 94.28 as it renewed the rally off June's low. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins.

Stochastics and the RSI are diverging but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If September extends the rally off June's low, the 62% retracement level of this year's decline crossing at 98.20 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 91.17 would confirm that a short term top has been posted while opening the door for a larger degree decline near term.

First resistance is today's high crossing at 95.75. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of this year's decline crossing at 98.20. First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 93.26. Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 91.17.

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Natural gas closed lower on Thursday as it renewed the decline off July's high. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term.

If September extends the decline off July's high, the 62% retracement level of the April-July rally crossing at 2.626 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 2.973 would temper the near term bearish outlook.

First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 2.842. Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 2.973. First support is today's low crossing at 2.685. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the April-July rally crossing at 2.626.

Today’s Stock Market Club Trading Triangles

Gold closed higher on Thursday as it extends this summer's trading range. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term.

If October renews the decline off July's high, the reaction low crossing at 1564.50 is the next downside target. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 1644.00 are needed to confirm an upside breakout of this summer's trading range.

First resistance is July's high crossing at 1626.90. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 1644.00. First support is the reaction low crossing at 1584.20. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 1564.50.

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Crude Oil Bulls Struggle to Hold 20 Day Moving Average

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Crude oil fell on Monday as the Institute for Supply Management’s U.S. factory index dropped 1.4 percent and collective Euro unemployment hit historic highs never seen in history.

Crude oil posted an inside day with a lower close on Monday as it consolidated some of last Friday's rally but remains above the 20 day moving average crossing at 82.49. The mid range close sets the stage for a steady opening when Tuesday's night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If August extends last Friday's rally, the 38% retracement level of this year's decline crossing at 90.43 is the next upside target. If August renews this year's decline, the 75% retracement level of the 2011-2012 rally crossing at 73.28 is the next downside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 87.32. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of this year's decline crossing at 90.43. First support is last Thursday's low crossing at 77.28. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the 2011-2012 rally crossing at 73.28.

John Kilduff, trader with Again Capital, said a weak jobs report this Friday could spur additional selling. But he doesn't see much chance of oil slipping into the $60s, as some had been discussing prior to Friday. "It's only a draft," said Tony Rosado, an oil options analyst and broker at GA Global Markets. But if Iran takes more concrete action in the strait, an important waterway for oil, "then I think people will have to take it more seriously," Mr. Rosado added.

Natural gas closed higher on Monday and is poised to extend the rally off June's low. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bearish hinting that a short term top might be in or is near. Multiple closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 2.564 are needed to confirm that a short term top
has been posted. If July extends the rally off June's low, February's high crossing at 3.137 is the next upside target. First resistance is last Wednesday's high crossing at 2.975. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 3.137. First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 2.714. Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 2.564.

Gold posted an inside day with a lower close on Monday. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. Multiple closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 1600.10 are needed to temper the bearish outlook. If August renews the decline off June's high, May's low crossing at 1529.30 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 1600.10. Second resistance is reaction high crossing at 1642.40. First support is the reaction low crossing at 1556.40. Second support is May's low crossing at 1529.30.

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Obviously, the Crude Oil Markets Overreacted Last Week

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CME: August crude oil prices traded lower during the overnight and early morning hours, as they corrected Friday's more than 9.0% gain. Some traders suggested that sluggish China and European manufacturing data served to tamp down global oil demand prospects and pressured crude oil prices lower. Meanwhile, there were a couple of positives in the crude oil market that might have limited early morning losses, including a European embargo on Iranian oil that went into effect over the weekend and the ongoing oil workers strike in Norway. The Commitments of Traders Futures and Options report as of June 26th showed non-commercial traders were net long 178,866 contracts, a decrease of 13,193. Non-commercial and nonreportable traders combined held a net long position of 192,382 contracts, for a decrease of 5,729 in their net long position.

COT: August crude oil was lower overnight as it consolidated some of last Friday's rally but remains above the 20 day moving average crossing at 82.49. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If August extends the rally off June's low, the reaction high crossing at 87.32 is the next upside target. If August renews this year's decline, the 75% retracement level of the 2009-2011 rally crossing at 73.28 is the next downside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 87.32. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 92.52. First support is last Thursday's low crossing at 77.28. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the 2009-2011 rally crossing at 73.28.

“The economic data doesn’t seem to suggest oil demand is going to be very explosive, and the demand expectation is softening,” said Phil Flynn, senior market analyst at the Price Futures Group in Chicago. “The market realized that maybe people overreacted last week and we are pulling back to a more normal area.”

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Crude Oil Spikes as Euro Leaders Relax Spains Debt Conditions

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CME: August crude oil prices traded sharply higher during the early morning hours, helped by an EU agreement aimed at relaxing borrowing costs in Spain and Italy. Risk assets across the globe appeared to embrace an agreement, and that has fostered ideas that global oil demand could turn higher. In addition to easing concerns over the European debt debacle, the crude oil market has also drafted support from tightening North Sea supply concerns.

COT: Crude oil was higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates around the 62% retracement level of the 2009-2012 rally crossing at 80.33. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold and are turning neutral to bullish hinting that a short term low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 82.31 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted. If August extends this year's decline, the 75% retracement level of the 2009-2011 rally crossing at 73.28 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 82.31. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 87.32. First support is Thursday's low crossing at 77.28. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the 2009-2011 rally crossing at 73.28.

Bloomberg: Crude posted its steepest intraday gain in eight months, increasing as much as 4.5 percent and trimming the biggest quarterly decline since the final three months of 2008. Oil gained after euro area leaders agreed to relax conditions on emergency loans for Spanish banks and possible help for Italy. Prices may advance after the European Union’s ban on the purchase, transport, financing and insurance of Iranian crude starts on July 1, a Bloomberg survey showed. Norway’s first industrywide energy strike since 2004 is in its sixth day.

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Crude Oil Bulls Reeling From Lowest Close in 9 Months

Crude oil is bouncing back in Thursday evenings session from the lowest close in more then 9 months. But still trading well below strong resistance above the $80 level as European Union actions against Iran and a strike in Norway still prove unable to push crude through resistance. But the bulls hold out hope.

Crude oil closed lower on Thursday renewing this spring's decline. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If August extends this spring's decline, the 75% retracement level of the 2011-2012 rally crossing at 73.28 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 82.47 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 82.47. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 87.32. First support is today's low crossing at 77.28. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the 2011-2012 rally crossing at 73.28.

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Natural gas closed lower on Thursday as it consolidated some of this month's rally. The mid range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If July extends this month's rally, February's high crossing at 3.137 is the next upside target. Multiple closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 2.524 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 2.975. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 3.137. First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 2.667. Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 2.524.

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Gold closed lower on Thursday renewing the decline off this month's high. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when this evenings session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If August extends last week's decline, May's low crossing at 1529.30 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 1601.90 are needed to temper the bearish outlook. First resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 1601.90. Second resistance is reaction high crossing at 1642.40. First support is the reaction low crossing at 1556.40. Second support is May's low crossing at 1529.30.

Crude Oil Market Commentary for Thursday Morning June 28th

CME: August crude oil prices waffled between gains and losses throughout the initial morning hours, amid uncertainty ahead of the EU summit and slowing global growth prospects. The outside market tone provided a modest drag for the crude oil, with global equity markets weaker and slight gains in the US dollar. Additionally, slowing growth concerns have offset concerns that North Sea supplies have come under added strain from an oil worker strike in Norway. August crude oil prices climbed to a new four day high in response to yesterday's EIA data that showed an inventory decline of 133,000 barrels last week. EIA crude stocks are 27.697 million barrels above year ago levels and 41.847 million barrels above the five year average. Crude oil imports for the week stood at 9.118 million barrels per day compared to 9.445 million barrels the previous week. The refinery operating rate was up 0.7% to 92.6%, which compares to 88.1% last year and the five year average of 88.55%.

COT: Crude oil was slightly lower overnight as it consolidates around the 62% retracement level of the 2009-2012 rally crossing at 80.33. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold and are turning neutral to bullish hinting that a short term low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 82.56 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted. If August extends this year's decline, the 75% retracement level of the 2009-2011 rally crossing at 73.28 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 82.56. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 87.32. First support is last Friday's low crossing at 77.56. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the 2009-2011 rally crossing at 73.28.

In other crude oil trading news.....

Venezuela wants OPEC to set an oil price band of $80 to $120 a barrel to stem crude's recent tumble, seeking to revive a policy the cartel scrapped seven years ago.

France is considering a one off tax on the oil sector before the end of 2012 that would raise around 500 million euros ($623.55 million), helping depleted French coffers but hurting its struggling refining industry.

Brazil's state led oil company Petrobras said on Wednesday that May output rose 1.9 percent to an average of 2.60 million barrels a day of oil and natural gas equivalent (boepd) as offshore fields in Brazil restarted after maintenance shutdowns.

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Commodities Get a Boost From New "It Isn't That Bad" Data in the U.S.

Crude oil closed higher due to short covering on Wednesday as it consolidates some of this spring's decline. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold and are turning neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 82.92 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. If August extends this spring's decline, the 75% retracement level of the 2011-2012 rally crossing at 73.28 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 82.92. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 87.32. First support is last Friday's low crossing at 77.56. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the 2011-2012 rally crossing at 73.28.

Natural gas closed higher on Wednesday as it extended this month's rally. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If July extends this month's rally, February's high crossing at 3.104 is the next upside target. Multiple closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 2.446 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 2.946. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 3.104. First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 2.610. Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 2.466.

Gold closed higher on Wednesday and the high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If August extends last week's decline, May's low crossing at 1529.30 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 1602.30 are needed to temper the bearish outlook. First resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 1602.30. Second resistance is reaction high crossing at 1642.40. First support is the reaction low crossing at 1556.40. Second support is May's low crossing at 1529.30.

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Crude Oil Traders Whisper....U.S. Inventories on the Rise

CME: August crude oil prices trended lower throughout the overnight and initial morning hours. Traders noted that some of the late day advance yesterday was tempered by private industry data that suggesting that U.S. crude stocks might have unexpectedly increased last week. The market also appears to be under a degree of pressure in front of this week's EU summit, which is largely expected to show little progress in resolving the European debt crisis. The crude oil market garnered support in yesterday's session from mounting concerns over a tightening North Sea supply situation.

COT: August crude oil was slightly lower overnight as it consolidates below the 62% retracement level of the 2009-2012 rally crossing at 80.33. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that additional weakness is possible near term. If August extends this year's decline, the 75% retracement level of the 2009-2011 rally crossing at 73.28 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 82.86 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 82.86. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 87.32. First support is last Friday's low crossing at 77.56. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the 2009-2011 rally crossing at 73.28.

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Strong Resistance at 80.33 Proving Difficult for the Crude Oil Bulls

Crude oil closed higher due to short covering on Tuesday as it consolidates below the 62% retracement level of the 2011-2012 rally crossing at 80.33. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If August extends this spring's decline, the 75% retracement level of the 2011-2012 rally crossing at 73.28 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 83.31 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 83.31. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 87.32. First support is last Friday's low crossing at 77.56. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the 2011-2012 rally crossing at 73.28.

Natural gas closed higher on Tuesday as it extended this month's rally. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are becoming overbought but remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If July extends this month's rally, May's high crossing at 2.838 is the next upside target. Multiple closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 2.449 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 2.778. Second resistance is May's high crossing at 2.838. First support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 2.449. Second support is this month's low crossing at 2.168.

Gold closed lower on Tuesday and poised to renew the decline off last week's high. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If August extends last week's decline, May's low crossing at 1529.30 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10 day moving average crossing at 1602.60 are needed to temper the bearish outlook. First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 1602.60. Second resistance is reaction high crossing at 1642.40. First support is the reaction low crossing at 1556.40. Second support is May's low crossing at 1529.30.

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