Crude Oil Bulls Hold Solid Near Term Advantage

crude oil closed up $1.91 at $85.96 a barrel today. Prices closed nearer the session high today and were supported by a weaker U.S. dollar index and a bullish weekly DOE stocks report. Crude oil bulls have the solid overall near term technical advantage and gained more upside momentum today.

Natural gas closed up 3.2 cents at $4.192 today. Prices closed near mid-range today on more short covering in a bear market. Bears still have the near term technical advantage. The next upside price objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid technical resistance at last week's high of $4.334.

The U.S. dollar index closed down 32 points at 80.30 today. Prices closed near mid-range today and hit a fresh five week low. While no serious chart damage has occurred recently the bulls have faded and need to show fresh power soon. The bulls still have the overall near term technical advantage.

The U.S. stock indexes closed higher again today and hit fresh 1 1/2 year highs. The stock index bulls have the solid overall near term technical advantage. Gentle, nine week old uptrends are in place on the daily bar charts. There are no early technical clues to suggest a market top is close at hand in the stock indexes.

Gold futures closed up $5.10 at $1,158.50 today. Prices closed near mid-range today and were supported by speculative bargain hunting buying after Tuesday's mild sell off. A weaker U.S. dollar index and sharply higher crude oil prices also supported buying interest in gold. Bulls still have the solid near term technical advantage. A nine week old uptrend line is in place on the daily bar chart.



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Crude Oil Bulls Struggle as Stochastics and RSI Turn Bearish

Crude oil closed lower on Tuesday as it extends Monday's breakout below the 10 day moving average crossing at 84.90 signaling that a short term top has likely been posted. A short covering rally tempered early losses and the high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bearish signaling that a short term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 83.22 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted. If May renews the rally off February's low, the 50% retracement level of the 2008-2009 decline crossing at 97.31 is the next upside target. First resistance is last Tuesday's high crossing at 87.09. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2008-2009 decline crossing at 97.31. First support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 83.22. Second support is today's low crossing at 82.51.

Natural gas closed higher due to short covering on Tuesday and the high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. Multiple closes above last Tuesday's high crossing at 4.334 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. If May renews this winter's decline, weekly support crossing at 3.502 is the next downside target. First resistance is last Tuesday's high crossing at 4.334. Second resistance is the 25% retracement level of the October-April decline crossing at 4.405. First support is last Thursday's low crossing at 3.857. Second support is the early April low crossing at 3.810.

The U.S. Dollar closed lower on Tuesday as it extends the decline off March's high. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If June extends this week's decline, March's low crossing at 79.73 is the next downside target. Closes above last Thursday's high crossing at 82.06 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted. First resistance is Monday's gap crossing at 81.01. Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 81.28. First support is Monday's low crossing at 80.22. Second support is March's low crossing at 79.73.






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Crude Oil Extends Decline Below 10 Day Moving Average

Crude oil was lower overnight as it extends Monday's decline below the 10 day moving average crossing at 84.89. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 83.22 would confirm that a short term top has been posted while opening the door for a larger degree decline during April. If May renews the rally off February's low, the 50% retracement level of the 2008-2009 decline crossing at 97.31 is the next upside target. First resistance is last Tuesday's high crossing at 87.09. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2008-2009 decline crossing at 97.31. First support is the overnight low crossing at 83.43. Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 83.22.

Natural gas was slightly higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates some of Monday's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish hinting that a short term low might be in or is near. If May renews the rally off April's low, the 25% retracement level of the October-April decline crossing at 4.405 is the next upside target. If May renews last week's decline, the early April low crossing at 3.810 is the next downside target. First resistance is last Tuesday's high crossing 4.316. Second resistance is the 25% retracement level of the October-April decline crossing at 4.405. First support is last Thursday's low crossing at 3.857. Second support is April's low crossing at 3.810.

The U.S. Dollar was lower overnight as it extends the decline off March's high. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 80.52 would confirm that a short term top has been posted while opening the door for a possible test of March's low crossing at 79.73 later this spring. Closes above last Thursday's high crossing at 82.06 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted. First resistance is Monday's gap crossing at 81.01. Second resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 81.24. First support is Monday's low crossing at 80.22. Second support is March's low crossing at 79.73.

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Crude Oil Market Commentary For Monday Morning

May crude oil was steady in late overnight trading as it consolidates above the 10 day moving average crossing at 84.77. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bearish hinting that a short term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 83.05 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If May renews the rally off February's low, the 50% retracement level of the 2008-2009 decline crossing at 97.31 is the next upside target. First resistance is last Tuesday's high crossing at 87.09. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2008-2009 decline crossing at 97.31. First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 84.77. Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 83.05.

Natural gas was higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates some of last week's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If May renews last week's decline, the early April low crossing at 3.810 is the next downside target. If May renews the rally off April's low, the 25% retracement level of the October-April decline crossing at 4.405 is the next upside target. First resistance is last Tuesday's high crossing 4.316. Second resistance is the 25% retracement level of the October-April decline crossing at 4.405. First support is last Thursday's low crossing at 3.857. Second support is April's low crossing at 3.810.

The U.S. Dollar gapped down and was lower overnight as it extends the decline off March's high. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 80.52 would confirm that a short term top has been posted while opening the door for a possible test of March's low crossing at 79.73 later this spring. Closes above last Thursday's high crossing at 82.06 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 81.24. Second resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 81.35. First support is the overnight low crossing at 80.22. Second support is March's low crossing at 79.73.


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Crude Oil Market Commentary For Thursday Evening

Crude oil closed lower on Thursday as it extended Wednesday's decline. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If May extends the rally off February's low, the 50% retracement level of the 2008-2009 decline crossing at 97.31 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 82.77 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 87.09. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2008-2009 decline crossing at 97.31. First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 83.87. Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 82.77.

Natural gas closed lower on Thursday as it extends this week's decline. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If May renews this winter's decline, weekly support crossing at 3.502 is the next downside target. Multiple closes above Tuesday's high crossing at 4.334 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 4.334. Second resistance is the 25% retracement level of the October-April decline crossing at 4.405. First support is today's low crossing at 3.857. Second support is last Thursday's low crossing at 3.810.

The U.S. Dollar closed higher on Thursday as it extends the rebound off last week's low. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. Closes below last week's low crossing at 80.52 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted. If June renews this winter's rally, the May 2009 high on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 83.34 is the next upside target. First resistance is March's high crossing at 82.52. Second resistance is the May 2009 high on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 83.34. First support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 81.18. Second support is last Thursday's low crossing at 80.52.


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Crude Oil Market Commentary For Wednesday Evening

Crude oil closed lower on Wednesday due to an increase in oil inventories and a decline in the equity markets. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If May extends the rally off February's low, the 50% retracement level of the 2008-2009 decline crossing at 97.31 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 82.60 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 87.09. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2008-2009 decline crossing at 97.31. First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 83.34. Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 82.60.

Natural gas closed lower due to profit taking on Wednesday as it consolidated some of Monday's rally. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. Multiple closes above Tuesday's high crossing at 4.334 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. If May renews this winter's decline, weekly support crossing at 3.502 is the next downside target. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 4.334. Second resistance is the 25% retracement level of the October-April decline crossing at 4.405. First support is today's low crossing at 4.010. Second support is last Thursday's low crossing at 3.810.

The U.S. Dollar closed higher due to short covering on Wednesday as it consolidated some of last week's decline but remains below the 10 day moving average crossing at 81.59. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. Closes below last week's low crossing at 80.52 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted. If June renews this winter's rally, the May 2009 high on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 83.34 is the next upside target. First resistance is March's high crossing at 82.52. Second resistance is the May 2009 high on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 83.34. First support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 81.12. Second support is last Thursday's low crossing at 80.52.


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Crude Oil Market Commentary For Tuesday Evening

Crude oil closed higher on Tuesday as it extends Monday's breakout above the 38% retracement level of the 2008-2009 decline crossing at 86.16. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If May extends the rally off February's low, the 50% retracement level of the 2008-2009 decline crossing at 97.31 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 82.41 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 87.09. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2008-2009 decline crossing at 97.31. First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 82.96. Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 82.41.

Natural gas closed lower due to profit taking on Tuesday as it consolidated some of Monday's rally. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. Multiple closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.224 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. If May renews this winter's decline, weekly support crossing at 3.502 is the next downside target. First resistance is today's high crossing at 4.334. Second resistance is the 25% retracement level of the October-April decline crossing at 4.405. First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 4.063. Second support is last Thursday's low crossing at 3.810.

The U.S. Dollar closed higher due to short covering on Tuesday as it consolidated some of last week's decline but remains below the 10 day moving average crossing at 81.64. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 80.86 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. If June renews this winter's rally, the May 2009 high on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 83.34 is the next upside target. First resistance is March's high crossing at 82.52. Second resistance is the May 2009 high on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 83.34. First support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 81.07. Second support is last Thursday's low crossing at 80.52.

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Crude Oil Market Commentary For Monday Evening

Crude oil closed up $1.87 at $86.74 a barrel today. Prices closed near the session high today and hit a fresh 1.5 year high today. Fresh speculative and commodity fund buying were seen today as prices have now pushed above the pivotal $85.00 level. A weaker U.S. dollar index and higher U.S. stock indexes today supported buying interest in crude oil. Crude oil bulls have the solid overall near term technical advantage and gained more upside momentum today.

Natural gas closed up 19.2 cents at $4.278 today. Prices closed near the session high today on short covering. Prices today showed good good follow through buying from solid gains Thursday and a bullish "key reversal" up on the daily bar chart has been confirmed. That is one early technical clue that a market bottom is in place. However, the bulls have more work to do in the near term to suggest an uptrend can be started.

The June U.S. dollar index closed down 14 points at 81.29 today. Prices closed near mid-range today in quieter trading. No serious chart damage has occurred recently. The bulls still have the overall near term technical advantage. Also, the Euro currency closed down as well, 11 points at 1.3475 today. Prices closed nearer the session low today in quieter trading. Euro bears have the overall near term technical advantage. Prices are still in a four month old downtrend on the daily bar chart.


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Crude Oil Bulls Take Clear Near Term Advantage

Crude oil closed up $1.13 at $84.89 a barrel today. Prices closed nearer the session high today and hit another fresh 11 week high. Prices also closed at a bullish weekly high close today. Crude oil bulls have the solid overall near term technical advantage and have regained solid upside momentum this week.

Natural gas closed up 22.1 cents at $4.09 today. Prices closed nearer the session high today after hitting a fresh contract low early on. Prices also scored a bullish "outside day" up on the daily bar chart and closed at a bullish weekly high close. Short covering in a bear market was featured. However, if prices on Monday can show good follow through buying, then a bullish "key reversal" up on the daily bar chart would be confirmed, which would then be one early technical clue that a maket bottom is in place.

The U.S. dollar index closed down 36 points at 80.93 today. Prices closed near the session low again today and closed at a bearish weekly low close. No serious chart damage has occurred but the bulls have faded this week on profit taking pressure. The bulls do still have the overall near term technical advantage.

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Crude Oil Market Commentary For Wednesday Evening

Crude oil closed up $1.10 at $83.47 a barrel today. Prices closed near the session high today and hit a fresh 11 week high. Prices also closed at a bullish monthly high close. Crude oil bulls have the overall near term technical advantage and have regained solid upside momentum this week.

Natural gas closed down 10.6 cents at $3.867 today. Prices closed near the session low today and closed at a fresh contract low close. Prices also closed at a technically bearish monthly and quarterly low close today. Bears have the solid overall near term technical advantage. There are still no early technical clues that a market bottom is close at hand. Prices are in a three month old downtrend on the daily bar chart.

The U.S. dollar index closed down 44 points at 81.29 today. Prices closed nearer the session low today and scored a mildly bearish "outside day" down on the daily bar chart. The bulls still have the overall near term technical advantage. Bulls' next upside price objective is to close prices above solid technical resistance at last week's high of 82.52.


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Crude Oil Market Commentary For Tuesday Evening

Crude oil closed up $0.21 at $82.38 a barrel today. Prices closed nearer the session high today. Crude oil bulls have the overall near term technical advantage and have regained upside momentum this week. The next upside price objective for the bulls is producing a close above solid technical resistance at the March high of $83.47 a barrel.

Natural gas closed up 6.7 cents at $3.983 today. Prices closed near the session high today on tepid short covering after hitting another fresh contract low early on. Bears have the solid overall near term technical advantage. There are still no early technical clues that a market bottom is close at hand. Prices are in a three month old downtrend on the daily bar chart.

The U.S. dollar index closed up 12 points at 81.74 today. Prices closed near the session high today. The bulls still have the solid overall near term technical advantage. Bulls' next upside price objective is to close prices above solid technical resistance at 83.00.


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Crude Oil Market Commentary For Monday Evening

Crude oil closed up $2.26 at $82.26 a barrel today. Prices closed nearer the session high today amid a weaker U.S. dollar index and higher stock index prices. Crude oil bulls have the overall near term technical advantage and regained some upside momentum today. The next upside price objective for the bulls is producing a close above solid technical resistance at the March high of $83.47 a barrel.

Natural gas closed down 0.2 cents at $3.928 today. Prices closed nearer the session low today and set another fresh contract low. Bears have the solid overall near term technical advantage. There are still no early technical clues that a market bottom is close at hand. Prices are in a three month old downtrend on the daily bar chart.

The U.S. dollar index closed down 40 points at 81.57 today. Prices closed nearer the session low today on profit taking pressure from recent gains. The bulls still have the solid overall near term technical advantage. Bulls' next upside price objective is to close prices above solid technical resistance at 83.00.

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Crude Oil Market Commentary For Friday Evening

Crude oil closed lower on Friday as it extends this week's decline below the 20 day moving average crossing at 81.34. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that a short term top is in or is near. Closes below last Monday's low crossing at 79.41 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted. If May renews the rally off February's low, January's high crossing at 85.43 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 81.34. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 83.47. First support is last Monday's low crossing at 80.89. Second support is Monday's low crossing at 78.86.

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Natural gas closed lower on Friday as it extends the decline off January's high. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If May extends this winter's decline, weekly support crossing at 3.502 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.424 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 4.209. Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.424. First support is today's low crossing at 3.923. Second support is weekly support crossing at 3.502.

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The U.S. Dollar closed lower due to profit taking on Friday as it consolidated some of this week's rally but remains above February's high crossing at 81.70. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If June extends this week's rally, the May 2009 high on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 83.34 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 80.86 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at 82.52. Second resistance is the May 2009 high on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 83.34. First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 81.03. Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 80.86.

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Crude Oil Market Commentary For Thursday Evening

Crude oil closed lower on Thursday as it extends this week's decline below the 20 day moving average crossing at 81.34. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that a short term top is in or is near. Closes below last Monday's low crossing at 79.41 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted. If May renews the rally off February's low, January's high crossing at 85.43 is the next upside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 83.47. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 85.43. First support is Monday's low crossing at 80.89. Second support is Monday's low crossing at 78.86.

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Natural gas closed lower on Thursday renewing the decline off January's high. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If May extends this winter's decline, weekly support crossing at 3.502 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.472 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 4.262. Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.472. First support is today's low crossing at 3.989. Second support is weekly support crossing at 3.502.

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The U.S. Dollar closed higher on Thursday as it extended Wednesday's breakout above February's high crossing at 81.70. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If June extends last week's rally, the May 2009 high on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 83.34 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 80.80 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 82.48. Second resistance is the May 2009 high on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 83.34. First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 80.83. Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 80.80.

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Crude Oil Market Commentary For Wednesday Evening

Crude oil closed lower on Wednesday as prices fell to a seven session low Wednesday due to a sharp rise in U.S. crude inventories and on a stronger dollar. The U.S. Energy Information Administration reported a 7.25 million barrel increase in crude inventories for last week, which was significantly more than the 1.4 million barrel gain that analysts had been expecting. The mid range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that a short term top is in or is near. Closes below last Monday's low crossing at 79.41 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted. If May renews the rally off February's low, January's high crossing at 85.43 is the next upside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 83.47. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 85.43. First support is Monday's low crossing at 80.89. Second support is Monday's low crossing at 78.86.

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Natural gas closed lower on Wednesday as it extends the trading range of the past four days. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If May extends this winter's decline, weekly support crossing at 4.035 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.511 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 4.308. Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.511. First support is Monday's low crossing at 4.093. Second support is weekly support crossing at 4.035.

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The U.S. Dollar closed sharply higher on Wednesday as worries over sovereign debt in Europe triggered today's rally. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If June extends last week's rally, the May 2009 high on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 83.34 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10 day moving average crossing at 80.65 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 82.19. Second resistance is the May 2009 high on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 83.34. First support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 80.73. Second support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 80.65.

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Crude Oil Market Commentary For Tuesday Evening

Crude oil closed higher due to a late day short covering rally on Tuesday. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that a short term top is in or is near. Closes below last Monday's low crossing at 79.41 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted. If May renews the rally off February's low, January's high crossing at 85.43 is the next upside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 83.47. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 85.43. First support is Monday's low crossing at 80.89. Second support is Monday's low crossing at 78.86.

Natural gas closed higher due to short covering on Tuesday as it consolidates some of this winter's decline. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If May extends this winter's decline, weekly support crossing at 4.035 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.550 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 4.357. Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.550. First support is Monday's low crossing at 4.093. Second support is weekly support crossing at 4.035.

The U.S. Dollar closed higher on Tuesday as it extends last week's breakout above the 20 day moving average crossing at 80.69. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If June extends last week's rally, February's high crossing at 81.70 is the next upside target. If June renews this month's decline, the 38% retracement level of the November-February rally crossing at 79.17 is the next downside target. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 81.35. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 81.70. First support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 80.69. Second support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 80.51.

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Crude Oil Declines on Forecast for Higher U.S. Supplies, Stronger Dollar

Crude oil fluctuated as the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index erased gains and the dollar increased against the euro. Oil climbed as much as 0.7 percent earlier today when the S&P 500 advanced above its March 17 close, the highest in 18 months. Futures dropped earlier when the greenback appreciated on skepticism European Union leaders will agree on an aid package for Greece this week. A stronger dollar reduces the investment appeal of commodities.

“All we are doing is chasing the S&P,” said Tim Evans, an energy analyst at Citi Futures Perspective in New York. “Traders have been trained to look at the correlation between the S&P and oil.” Crude oil for May delivery rose 6 cents to $81.66 a barrel at 11:15 a.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Prices are up 2.9 percent this year. The S&P 500 declined 0.13 point to 1,165.68, after climbing as much as 3.61 points, or 0.3 percent, to 1,169.42.

The dollar traded at $1.3537 per euro, up 0.2 percent from $1.3558 yesterday. The greenback was up 0.6 percent earlier today. The euro weakened versus 12 of 16 major counterparts after European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet spoke out against offering low interest loans to Greece.

Oil prices have remained within a $68 to $84 a barrel range since October, and have traded between $77.05 and $83.16 over the past month. “We’re finding out the market can’t move too far above $80 before running into resistance,” said Gene McGillian, an analyst and broker at Tradition Energy in Stamford, Connecticut. “There will have to be evidence of increasing demand or a geopolitical crisis to push prices above $83”.....Read the entire article.


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Crude Oil Market Commentary For Monday Evening

Crude oil closed higher due to a late day short covering rally on Monday. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short term top is in or is near. Closes below last Monday's low crossing at 79.41 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted. If May renews the rally off February's low, January's high crossing at 85.43 is the next upside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 83.47. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 85.43. First support is Monday's low crossing at 80.89. Second support is today's low crossing at 78.86.

Natural gas closed lower on Monday as it extends this winter's decline below weekly support crossing at 4.157. The mid range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If May extends this winter's decline, weekly support crossing at 4.035 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.585 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 4.396. Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.585. First support is today's low crossing at 4.093. Second support is weekly support crossing at 4.035.

The U.S. Dollar closed lower due to profit taking on Monday but remains above the 20 day moving average crossing at 80.70. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If June extends last week's rally, February's high crossing at 81.70 is the next upside target. If June renews this month's decline, the 38% retracement level of the November-February rally crossing at 79.17 is the next downside target. First resistance is today's high crossing at 81.35. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 81.70. First support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 80.70. Second support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 80.49.


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Crude Oil Market Commentary For Friday Evening

Crude oil closed lower on Friday after India's central bank decided to raise its key lending and borrowing rates in an effort to reduce inflation. Investors also fear that central banks in China could follow India's lead. Ongoing concerns about the slow pace of the economic recovery and high global oil inventories also weighed on prices. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short term top is in or is near. Closes below Monday's low crossing at 79.41 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. If May renews the rally off February's low, January's high crossing at 85.43 is the next upside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 83.47. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 85.43. First support is today's low crossing at 80.14. Second support is Monday's low crossing at 80.89.

Natural gas closed higher due to short covering on Friday as it consolidates some of this week's decline and is trading above broken weekly support crossing at 4.157. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If May extends this winter's decline, weekly support crossing at 4.035 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.626 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 4.439. Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.626. First support is today's low crossing at 4.114. Second support is weekly support crossing at 4.035.

The U.S. Dollar closed higher on Friday and above the 20 day moving average crossing at 80.70 signaling that a short term low has been posted. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If June extends this week's rally, February's high crossing at 81.70 is the next upside target. If June renews Wednesday's decline, the 38% retracement level of the November-February rally crossing at 79.17 is the next downside target. First resistance is today's high crossing at 81.14. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 81.70. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 79.73. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the November-February rally crossing at 79.17.


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Crude Oil Market Commentary For Thursday Evening

Crude oil closed lower due to profit taking on Thursday as it consolidates some of Wednesday's rally. The mid range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If May renews the rally off February's low, January's high crossing at 85.43 is the next upside target. Closes below Monday's low crossing at 79.41 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 83.47. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 85.43. First support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 81.03. Second support is Monday's low crossing at 80.89.

Natural gas closed sharply lower on Thursday and below weekly support crossing at 4.157 as it extends this winter's decline. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If May extends this winter's decline, weekly support crossing at 4.035 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.671 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 4.483. Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.671. First support is today's low crossing at 4.119. Second support is weekly support crossing at 4.035.

The U.S. Dollar closed higher on Thursday as it consolidates some of this week's decline while renewing the late winter trading range. The dollar rose sharply due to dealer talk that the Federal Reserve would raise the discount interest rate. Today's chatter among traders reflected fears that the Feb may raise interest rates sooner than later. Additional support came from renewed concerns over Greece's debt concerns. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If June extends this week's decline, the 38% retracement level of the November-February rally crossing at 79.17 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 80.70 would temper the near term bearish outlook. First resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 80.70. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 81.20. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 79.73. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the November-February rally crossing at 79.17.


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