Mike Seerys Weekly Recap of the Natural Gas, Gold, Silver, Copper and Corn Markets

A positive monthly unemployment number which added 271,000 jobs sent many commodities lower on Friday all due to a very strong U.S dollar. So we have asked our trading partner Mike Seery back to give our us a recap of this weeks trading and help us put together a plan for the upcoming week.

Natural gas futures in the December contract settled last Friday at 2.32 while currently trading at 2.38 as I’ve been recommending a short position over the last several months and if you took that trade continue to place your stop loss above the 10 day high which has been lowered to 2.42 as the trend may have bottomed out in the short term. If you take a look at the daily chart there is a price gap at 2.46 as it looks to me that prices want to fill that gap as weather in the Midwest has put pressure on prices in the short term as we are way above normal average temperatures therefore lowering demand and therefore putting pressure on prices. Natural gas prices are still trading below their 20 and 100 day moving average telling you that the short term trend is lower as many of the commodity markets were lower once again today due to a strong U.S dollar but natural gas is a domestic product which is not influenced by the dollar but by weather conditions as we are starting to enter the winter months, but continue to place your stop at the proper level and if we are stopped out look at other markets that are beginning to trend as this trade worked very well.
Trend: Lower
Chart Structure: Outstanding

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Gold futures in the December contract settled last Friday in New York at 1,141 while currently trading at 1,087 an ounce down $17 this Friday afternoon all due to a very strong U.S dollar which is up over 100 points today on a positive monthly unemployment number which added 271,000 jobs sending many commodities lower. Gold prices are trading below their 20 and 100 day moving average telling you that the short-term trend is to the downside as prices hit a three week low; however the chart structure is terrible as prices have collapsed over the last couple weeks as I’m sitting on the sidelines waiting for the risk/reward to improve. The next major level of support is at 1,080 which is the contract low as you have to think that gold prices are headed lower as I’m currently bullish the stock market and I do believe that will continue to move higher taking money out of the precious metals therefore continuing to put pressure on prices as I see no reason to own gold. The unemployment rate is 5% as investors are now thinking that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates which are another negative influence towards gold and commodity prices.
Trend: Lower
Chart Structure: Poor

Silver futures are trading below their 20 and 100 day moving average settling last Friday at 15.56 while currently trading at 14.77 an ounce hitting a 4 week low as the trend in silver is to the downside, however it also has poor chart structure so I’m sitting on the sidelines at the current time. The next level of support in silver is 14/14.50 as I do think prices are headed lower due to a strong U.S dollar which should continue to move higher for the rest of 2015 in my opinion as the commodity markets look to head lower. At the current time I’m recommending a short position in copper as I think silver and gold will continue to put pressure on copper as I see no reason to own the precious metals. Silver prices have been very choppy over the last several months with many false breakouts so be patient as the risk/reward is not in your favor presently, but I’m definitely not recommending any type of bullish position as the path of least resistance is to the downside.
Trend: Lower
Chart Structure: Poor

Copper futures in the December contract settled last Friday in New York at 231.75 a pound while currently trading at 224.40 down about 700 points for the trading week as I have been recommending a short position from around 231 and if you took that trade continue to place your stop loss above the 10 day high which currently stands at 2.38 as the chart structure will tighten up in next week’s trade. Copper futures are trading below their 20 and 100 day moving average telling you that the short-term trend is to the downside hitting a five week low with the next major level of resistance at 2.20/2.22 and if that level is broken I think prices could test 2.00 in the next several weeks as the U.S dollar continues to put pressure on many commodity prices including copper. The precious metals continued their bearish momentum with gold and silver sharply lower this week keeping a lid on copper prices. I think this trend is just beginning so take advantage of any price rally as I think lower prices are ahead as we could possibly be adding to this position as the risk/reward is in your favor in my opinion as copper is a very large contract which can experience huge volatility with high risk which is what we look for as a trader as long as you risk 2% of your account balance on any given trade. Copper has traded lower for the last 3 trading sessions as volatility is relatively high as the long term trend line is still intact so continue to play this to the downside.
Trend: Lower
Chart Structure: Solid

Corn futures in the December contract settled last Friday in Chicago at 3.82 a bushel while currently trading at 3.72 down $.10 for the trading week as I’ve been recommending a short position from around 3.79 if you took the original trade continue to place your stop loss above the 10 day high which stands at 3.88 as the chart structure will start to improve in next week’s trade. Corn prices are trading below their 20 and 100 day moving average telling you that the trend is to the downside with the next major level of support at the contract low of 3.60 which could be tested next week off of the USDA crop report which should send high volatility back into this market. Volatility in corn at the current time is relatively low as I expect that to continue until next spring as there is very little fundamental news to put high volatility into the market, but I do think the trend will continue to the downside as expectations are of higher production numbers in the upcoming report and extremely high carryover numbers which should keep a lid on prices. Corn prices hit an 8 week low as the one reason I took this trade was the fact of excellent chart structure at the time of the recommendation with the original risk of 8 cents or $400 as I still see lower prices ahead due to a very strong U.S dollar which is up sharply this Friday afternoon.
Trend: Lower
Chart Structure: Solid

What does Mike mean when he talks about chart structure and why does he think it’s so important when deciding to enter or exit a trade?

Mike tells us "I define chart structure as a slow grinding up or down trend with low volatility and no chart gaps. Many of the great trends that develop have very good chart structure with many low percentage daily moves over a course of at least 4 weeks thus allowing you to enter a market allowing you to place a stop loss relatively close due to small moves thus reducing risk. Charts that have violent up and down swings are not considered to have solid chart structure as I like to place my stops at 10 day highs or 10 day lows and if the charts have a tight pattern that will allow the trader to minimize risk which is what trading is all about and if the chart has big swings your stop will be further away allowing the possibility of larger monetary loss."

Mike has been a senior analyst for close to 15 years and has extensive knowledge of all of the commodity and option markets. Get more of Mike's calls on this Weeks Commodity Markets


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Mike Seerys Weekly Recap of the Crude Oil, Natural Gas, Silver, Dollar, Coffee and Sugar Markets

Is being on the sidelines a good trade? Of course it is and sometimes we just have to step back and being honest with ourselves when there just is not any trends that work to our advantage. And that's never been more the case than it is right now in the commodity markets. So who better to have than our trading partner Mike Seery back to give our readers a recap of this weeks trading and help us put together a plan for the upcoming week. 

Crude oil futures in the December contract are trading below its 20 and 100 day moving average hitting an eight week low in Tuesdays trade only to rebound in Wednesdays trade off of a bullish API report as prices remain choppy as I’m currently sitting on the sidelines just like I have been in many different markets as there are very few trends that are currently developing.

Crude oil prices settled last Friday in New York at 44.60 while currently trading at 46.18 slightly higher for the trading week as the U.S dollar is at an eight week high putting pressure on many commodities especially the precious metals over the last several days, but it looks to me that crude oil prices are stabilizing around the mid-40 level.

Gasoline prices have fallen dramatically over the last several months and has put pressure on crude oil prices as I paid $2.14 in the suburb of Chicago yesterday for gas which was the lowest price since 2009 but at the current time this market remains choppy, but the chart structure still remains very solid as there could be a possible trade in the next week or two.
Trend: Mixed
Chart Structure: Solid

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Natural gas futures in the December contract are trading lower for the 8th consecutive trading session finishing down 25 points for the trading week hitting a 3 ½ year low currently trading at 2.25 as I’ve been recommending a short position for the last eight weeks and if you took that trade congratulations as this market has completely collapsed due to the fact of extremely warm weather in the Midwestern part of the United States. Natural gas prices are trading far below their 20 and 100 day moving average telling you that the trend is sharply lower as the November contract right before expiration actually traded below 2.00 as the next level of support on the December contract is this Fridays low of 2.18 and if that is broken I think we can retest 2.00 once again as the forecast of warmer weather continues.

The chart structure will start to improve dramatically in Wednesdays trade as the 10 day high currently stands at 2.70 but that will be lowered on a daily basis so be patient as the risk will come down so accept the monetary risk. Many of the commodity markets are dictated by a strong or weak U.S dollar, but natural gas is a domestic product as price fluctuations depend on weather conditions as the weather in the Midwest has been extremely warm therefore depressing demand lowering prices as well so remain short in my opinion, however if you have missed this trade move on as you have missed the boat.
Trend: Lower
Chart Structure: Poor

Silver futures in the December contract settled the trading week on a sour note closing around 15.55 an ounce unchanged this Friday afternoon after hitting a 4 month high in Wednesdays trade, but then the Federal Reserve stated that they will possibly raise interest rates in the month of December sending silver prices sharply lower hitting a three week low in today’s trade.

I was recommending a long position from around 16.25 while getting stopped out around 15.60 taking a small loss as I can’t remember the last time the Federal Reserve actually benefited my trades which is very frustrating as I just wish they would raise interest rates and get it over with.

At the current time I’m sitting on the sidelines waiting for another trend to develop as gold prices look very weak in my opinion as I’m sitting on the sidelines in that market as well while focusing at other markets that are beginning to trend as silver prices remain extremely choppy despite the recent bullish momentum.
Ttend: Mixed
Chart Structure: Solid

The U.S dollar is trading above its 20 and 100 day moving average in a very volatile trading week surging higher in Wednesdays trade as the Federal Reserve stated that they might possibly raise interest rates in the month of December, however prices have fallen back 100 points in the last two trading days finishing down on the week by about 50 points. The dollar hit a 10 week high in Wednesday’s trade as I’ve been sitting on the sidelines in this market as well as this remains extremely choppy as the 10 day low is over 200 points away therefore not meeting my risk criteria.

The problem with many of the commodity markets at the current time is that they remain choppy as the U.S dollar is sharply higher one day and then sharply lower the next day so be patient. I’m still looking at a possible bullish position but the chart structure has to improve and that’s going to take another five days so keep a close eye on this market to the upside, but at this point in time look at other markets that are beginning to trend. One bullish fundamental factor that could prop up the dollar is fact that the U.S will raise interest rates it’s just a matter of time while Europe and many other foreign countries continue to lower interest rates.
Trend: Higher - Mixed
Chart Structure: Poor

Coffee futures in the December contract settled last Friday in New York at 118.45 a pound while currently trading at 121.15 as I’m currently sitting on the sidelines waiting for another trend to develop. I was recommending a bullish position several weeks ago when prices traded as high as 138 on concerns about dry weather in Brazil but adequate rains hit key coffee growing regions sending prices to today’s levels.

Major support in coffee is at the contract low around 115 which was hit in the month of September as I think I will be on the sidelines for quite some time as the chart structure is very poor which means that the monetary risk is too high to enter into the trade so look at other markets that are beginning to trend. Volatility in coffee is relatively high as that’s not surprising as coffee historically speaking is one of the most volatile commodities as in 2014 a drought hit Brazil sending prices up about 80% very quickly, but at the current time there are no weather problems existing.

In my opinion I do believe coffee prices are bottoming out as it would surprise me if we headed much lower and if you are a producer I would still be buying at today’s prices as I think the downside is limited.
Trend: Mixed - Lower
Chart Structure: Poor

Sugar futures in the March contract settled last Friday in New York at 14.28 a pound while currently trading at 14.68 up 40 points for the trading week continuing its bullish momentum hitting a 5 1/2 month high. Sugar prices are trading far above their 20 and 100 day moving average telling you that the short term trend is to the upside as I have missed this trade due to the fact that the chart structure was poor at the time of the breakout, but my recommendation would be if you are currently long a futures contract place your stop loss below the 10 day low which stands at 13.94 as the chart structure will start to improve in next week’s trade therefore lowering monetary risk.

The next major level of resistance is at 15.00 as prices bottomed out around 11.50 in September due to less production coming out of Brazil due to heavy rains as well as strong demand changing the supply/demand table very quickly as we will not produce a record crop in 2016 like we have over the last several growing seasons.

As a trader you must have an exit strategy as I had many short positions in sugar over the last year, however I always use the 10 day high if I am short as an exit strategy because holding on and never getting out is a very dangerous way to trade because commodity prices can change very quickly.
Trend: Higher
Chart Structure: Improving

What does Mike mean when he talks about chart structure and why does he think it’s so important when deciding to enter or exit a trade?

Mike tells us "I define chart structure as a slow grinding up or down trend with low volatility and no chart gaps. Many of the great trends that develop have very good chart structure with many low percentage daily moves over a course of at least 4 weeks thus allowing you to enter a market allowing you to place a stop loss relatively close due to small moves thus reducing risk. Charts that have violent up and down swings are not considered to have solid chart structure as I like to place my stops at 10 day highs or 10 day lows and if the charts have a tight pattern that will allow the trader to minimize risk which is what trading is all about and if the chart has big swings your stop will be further away allowing the possibility of larger monetary loss."

Mike has been a senior analyst for close to 15 years and has extensive knowledge of all of the commodity and option markets. Get more of Mike's calls on this Weeks Commodity Markets


Make sure you get our latest FREE eBook "Understanding Options"....Just Click Here!

Mike Seerys Weekly Recap of the Crude Oil, Natural Gas, Gold, Silver, Dollar and Coffee Markets

Traders reacted to a very bad monthly unemployment number pushing the U.S dollar sharply lower supporting many markets on Friday afternoon. So who better to have than our trading partner Mike Seery back to give our readers a recap of this weeks trading and help us put together a plan for the upcoming week. 

Crude oil futures in the November contract are trading below their 20 and 100 day moving average telling you that the short term trend is to the downside as prices have been consolidating in recent weeks settling last Friday in New York at 45.70 a barrel while currently trading at 45.10 down around $.60 for the trading week. Traders reacted to a very bad monthly unemployment number pushing the U.S dollar sharply lower supporting many markets this Friday afternoon as I’m recommending a short position if prices break 44.00 while placing your stop loss above the 10 day high which now stands at 47.15 risking around $1,600 per contract plus slippage and commission, as prices have not broken out at this point so keep a close eye as this as this could happen any minute.

Many of the commodity markets are mixed this Friday afternoon as a weak U.S dollar has supported many different markets as the S&P 500 is sharply lower and that’s usually a negative influence towards oil prices, but they are stuck in a consolidation and I don’t like to trade choppy markets so be patient and wait for the breakout to occur. Oil prices have been relatively volatile especially with the fact that Russia is bombing Syria sending prices sharply higher yesterday and then falling out of bed towards the end of the day, so make sure you respect this market placing the proper amount of contracts therefore respecting risk which is high at the current time.
Trend: Sideways
Chart Structure: Improving

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Natural gas futures in the November contract settled last Friday in New York at 2.63 while currently trading at 2.43 hitting a 3 ½ year low as I’ve been recommending a short position from around the 2.70 level and if you took that trade continue to place your stop loss above the 10 day high which currently stands at 2.72 as the chart structure is poor at the current time due to the fact that prices continue to move lower.

Mild temperatures in the Midwestern part of the United States is causing demand problems therefore putting pressure on short term prices as the next major level of support is around 2.25 and if that is broken we can retest the 2012 lows around 2.00 in my opinion as the trend is your friend and this trend is getting stronger to the downside on a weekly basis.

At the time of the recommendation the chart structure was outstanding and was one of the main reasons I took that trade, however if you have missed this trade the chart structure is poor as the risk is too high as you have missed the boat so look at other markets that are beginning to trend. If you take a look at the weekly chart pattern natural gas has broken out of major consolidation as I’m looking to add more positions to this trade once the chart structure tightens up which will take another week or so.
Trend: Lower
Chart Structure: Poor

Gold futures in the December contract settled last Friday in New York at 1,145 an ounce while currently trading at 1,131 down about $14 this week but reacting sharply higher today on a poor monthly unemployment number but continuing its long term down trend while trading below its 20 and 100 day moving average retesting major support at 1,100 near an eight week low as I’m currently sitting on the sidelines as this market remains choppy with poor chart structure.

I still see no reason to own gold currently as the risk/reward is not your favor so look at other markets that are starting to trend. Gold prices had a significant rally in the month of August bottoming out around 1,080 then rallying to 1,170 which was impressive in my opinion due to short covering and a flight to quality as the stock market has experienced volatility in recent weeks sending money out of stocks and into gold as a safe haven, but things have settled down putting short term pressure on gold.

As I’ve talked about in many previous blogs I am a trend follower and I do not like to trade choppy markets because they are extremely difficult in my opinion so avoid this market at the current time and wait for better chart structure to develop before entering.
Trend: Lower
Chart Structure: Poor

Silver futures in the December contract settled last Friday in New York at 15.11 an ounce while currently trading at 15.00 down about $.10 reacting sharply higher due to a poor monthly unemployment number today continuing its remarkable choppy trend over the last several months as prices are right near a four week low.

At the current time I’m sitting on the sidelines as I hate trade choppy markets as prices are still trading below their 20 and 100 day moving average telling you that the short term trend is to the downside and the long term down trend is still intact in my opinion as this market has been frustrating as prices seem to go nowhere.

I’ll keep a close eye and wait for better chart structure to develop as platinum prices hit another contract low and I think that will continue to pressure silver, but I will wait for a breakout to occur as the 10 day high is too far away risking too much money at the current time so be patient as the trend clearly remains bearish.

The U.S dollar has remained strong throughout 2015 as that’s put pressure on the precious metals and many other commodities as I think the U.S dollar is about to breakout to the upside and if that does occur look for silver prices to possibly head back down to the $13 level.
Trend: Lower
Chart Structure: Poor

The dollar index futures in the December contract are trading above their 20 day and right at their 100 day average telling you that the trend has turned to the upside as I’m currently sitting on the sidelines waiting for a breakout above 96.88 to occur before entering a bullish position while then placing your stop loss at the 10 day low which would be 95.57.

The dollar settled last Friday at 96.43 while currently trading at 96.45 basically unchanged for the trading week as investors are awaiting the monthly unemployment number which will be released this morning at 7:30 sending high volatility back into this market. I have not traded the dollar index for quite some time but when I do see excellent chart structure coupled with a solid risk/reward situation I will trade the market, but at this point patience is the key waiting for the true breakout to occur before entering as we could be entering a bullish position any day now.
Trend: Mixed
Chart Structure: Improving

Coffee futures in the December contract are trading above their 20 day but still below their 100 day moving average telling you that the short term trend is mixed as I was recommending a short position getting stopped out last Friday around the 122 level as I’m now sitting on the sidelines waiting for another trend to develop as I have been stopped out of the last two recommendations. Coffee settled last Friday at 122.70 a pound while currently trading at 121 down slightly for the trading week with very low volatility as prices are still right near a 4 week high waiting for some fresh fundamental news to dictate short term price action.

Generally speaking coffee is one of the most volatile commodities historically speaking, but with low volatility at the current time as prices have been going sideways for the last month or so, but a new trend could be developing as prices look to be bottoming out around this level in my opinion. The Brazilian Real has stabilized against the U.S dollar in the past week and that’s also helped push up coffee prices here in the short term, but only time will tell to see if that trend remains, but I expect high volatility to emerge in the coming months.
Trend: Higher
Chart Structure: Solid

Mike has been a senior analyst for close to 15 years and has extensive knowledge of all of the commodity and option markets. Get more of Mike's calls on this Weeks Commodity Markets


Make sure you get our latest FREE eBook "Understanding Options"....Just Click Here!

Mike Seerys Weekly Recap of the Crude Oil, Natural Gas, Gold, Silver, Dollar and Coffee Markets

The fed showed it's lack of confidence in the economy by keeping rates unchanged and traders made it clear how they feel about it. So who better to have than our trading partner Mike Seery back to give our readers a recap of this weeks trading and help us put together a plan for the upcoming week. 

Crude oil futures in the October contract settled last Friday in New York at 44.63 a barrel while currently trading at 46.40 up nearly $2 for the trading week as the short term trend seems to be gaining traction to the upside.

I’m currently sitting on the sidelines in this market as prices are trading above their 20 but below their 100 day moving average telling you that the trend is mixed as a bullish API report on Wednesday sent prices up sharply as it looks to me that prices want to go higher but the risk is too high at the current time to enter into a position. The U.S dollar was sharply lower this week as that supported the precious metals and the energy sector as prices are still consolidating last month’s rally from $38/$49 as volatility is relatively high at the current time.

The Federal Reserve announced yesterday that they will not raise interest rates helping push up many commodities here in the short term, but the problem with oil at the current time is the fact that we have massive worldwide supplies which have sent prices sharply lower in 2015 but that’s already reflected into the price, but wait for better chart structure to develop as it might take a couple more weeks so keep a close eye on this market.
Trend: Mixed
Chart Structure: Improving

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Natural gas futures in the October contract are trading below their 20 and 100 telling you that the trend is to the downside as I’m now recommending a short position at 2.63 while placing your stop loss above the 10 day high which currently stands at 2.80 risking $1,700 per contract plus slippage and commission.

The chart structure will not improve for another 6 days so you’re going to have to accept the risk as prices are down about 6 points for the trading week as the energy sector is lower this Friday afternoon. Natural gas prices bottomed out around the 263 level on over a dozen occasions only to rally every single time but this time we broke major support and that’s why I am taking a short position as I think the risk/reward is in your favor but I would like to see a little better chart structure as we had a false rally earlier in the week to the upside and that’s why the stop loss is relatively high.

If the risk is too high for your trading account take advantage of any price rally therefore lowering monetary risk as who knows how low prices go as huge supplies continue to put pressure on this market coupled with mild weather conditions therefore decreasing demand here in the United States so stay short in my opinion as this is a major breakdown in price technically speaking.
Trend: Lower
Chart Structure: Solid

Gold futures in the December contract are sharply higher this Friday in New York trading up $20 at 1,137 an ounce after settling last Friday at 1,103 reacting to the Federal Reserve yesterday not raising interest rates sending gold sharply higher with high volatility. Gold is trading above its 20 day but still below its 100 day moving average telling you that the trend is mixed as I’ve been sitting on the sidelines for quite some time as this trend is extremely choppy as I’m advising investors to avoid this market at the current time and wait for better chart structure before entering.

I was recommending a silver trade getting stopped out a couple of days back as the precious metals as a whole have rallied as it looks like the Federal Reserve is very hesitant to raise interest rates which is bullish commodity markets at least here in the short term, but the true breakout in gold is above 1,170 but look at other markets that are beginning to trend with less risk.

The U.S dollar has been down 150 points in the last three days which has been very supportive to the precious metals as money is coming out of the S&P 500 and into gold but time will tell us if this trend is for real.
Trend: Mixed
Chart Structure: Poor

Silver futures in the December contract settled last Friday in New York at 14.50 an ounce while currently trading at 15.25 up $.75 this week reacting to the Federal Reserve not raising interest rates sending silver prices sharply higher. I was recommending a short position in silver from around 14.70 getting stopped out in Wednesdays trade around 14.95 as prices are now trading above their 20 day but still below their 100 day moving average telling you that the trend is mixed so sit on the sidelines and look at other markets that are beginning to trend.

The chart structure in silver at the time of the recommendation was outstanding, however currently the chart structure is poor with high risk as the true breakout does not occur until prices break 15.77 as silver may have bottomed in the short term.

Many of the commodity markets have been choppy in recent weeks as I was stopped out of many of my trade recommendations as my only two positions at current time are short coffee and cattle as I will wait and be patient as sometimes not trading is the best thing to do.
Trend: Mixed
Chart Structure: Poor

The dollar index futures in the December contract are trading below their 20 & 100 day average telling you that the trend is to the downside reacting negatively to the Federal Reserve’s decision not to raise interest rates sending the dollar down over 100 points for the trading week.

I’m currently sitting on the sidelines waiting for a breakout above 96.63 to occur before entering a bullish position but it looks to me that prices look to retest last month’s low of around 93 but the chart structure is poor at the current time so avoid this market as the risk is too high in my opinion.

I have not traded the currencies in quite some time but when I do see excellent chart structure coupled with a solid risk/reward situation I will trade the currency market but at this point the chart structure does not meet my criteria so find another market that is trending.
Trend: Lower
Chart Structure: Poor

Coffee futures in the December contract are trading below their 20 and 100 day moving average telling you that the trend is bearish in the short term after settling in New York last Friday at 116.55 while currently trading at 118.25 in a very nonvolatile trading week. I am currently recommending a short position and if you took that recommendation continue to place your stop loss above the 10 day high which currently stands at 122.50 as the chart structure is outstanding at the current time while the risk/reward is in your favor in my opinion.

Coffee prices continue their bearish trend as traders are concerned that Brazil will continue to sell reserves due to the fact that of the Brazilian Real weakness versus the U.S dollar, but only time will tell to see if this comes to fruition. I’m a trend follower and the trend is to the downside as I think volatility will start to increase as coffee historically speaking is one of most volatile commodities in the world but at this point remains very dormant.

As I talked about in yesterday’s blog anytime you can risk three or four points in coffee you must take that trade as I think that’s a special situation that does not happen very often over the course of the year due to the fact that volatility is usually much higher than it is presently.
Trend: Lower
Chart Structure: Outstanding

Mike has been a senior analyst for close to 15 years and has extensive knowledge of all of the commodity and option markets. Get more of Mike's calls on this Weeks Commodity Markets


Make sure you get our latest FREE eBook "Understanding Options"....Just Click Here!

Weekly Crude Oil, Natural Gas, Gold, Silver, Dollar and Coffee Markets Recap with Mike Seery

The institutional traders are back from vacation and trading volume is picking up. So who better to have than our trading partner Mike Seery back to give our readers a recap of this weeks trading and help us put together a plan for the upcoming week. 

Crude oil futures in the October contract settled last Friday in New York at 46.05 a barrel while currently trading at 45.20 as this market has been highly volatile as I probably will not be trading crude oil for quite some time as the chart structure is terrible so look at other markets that are beginning to trend with less risk. Prices are currently trading above their 20 day moving average for the first time in months but still below their 100 day average as the trend remains mixed.

Crude oil prices have been following the stock market as when the S&P 500 is sharply lower you can rest assured crude oil prices will be lower and vice versa as everything comes to and as we were short this market from $59 as the trend was our friend for three months before turning on a dime, as this is why you must have an exit strategy as mine is placing a stop at the 10 day high if I am short as never getting out is very dangerous in my opinion. Goldman Sachs cut demand for crude oil sending prices lower this Friday afternoon as experts are calling for lower prices and the possibly of breaking $30 a barrel due to massive oversupply but I will wait for a trend to develop.
Trend: Mixed
Chart Structure: Poor

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Natural gas futures settled in New York at 2.65 last Friday afternoon while currently trading at 2.67 in a very nonvolatile trading week as prices are stuck in an incredibly tight three-week channel looking to breakout one direction and my feeling is to the downside and if prices break 2.63 I’m recommending a short position while placing your stop loss above the 10 day high at 2.73 risking $1,000 per contract plus slippage and commission. Natural gas futures are still trading below their 20 and 100 day moving average as this has been a bearish trend over the last several years due to oversupply issues here in the United States as we are a massive supplier and exporter of natural gas and I don’t think that situation is going to change, so keep a close eye on this market as a breakout is in the cards in my opinion. As a trader you have to look for special situations as my consolidation rule states that a consolidation must be 8 weeks or longer so this does not meet criteria, however the chart structure is outstanding therefore lowering monetary risk as I’m looking forward to getting into this trade either on the short side or possibly even on the long side as the risk/reward is your favor once the breakout occurs but you must be patient.
Trend: Sideways
Chart Structure: Outstanding

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Gold futures in the December contract settled last Friday in New York at 1,121 an ounce while currently trading at 1,106 down about $15 this week trading below its 20 and 100 day moving average near a 3 week low as I’m currently sitting on the sidelines as this market remains choppy with poor chart structure. I still see no reason to own gold currently as the risk/reward is not your favor so look at other markets that are starting to trend such as the silver market which I am currently recommending a short position because the chart structure is outstanding. Gold prices had a significant rally in the month of August bottoming out around 1,080 then rallying to 1,170 which was impressive in my opinion due to short covering and a flight to quality as the stock market has experienced volatility in recent weeks sending money out of stocks and into gold as a safe haven but things have settled down putting short-term pressure on gold. As I’ve talked about in many previous blogs I am a trend follower and I do not like to trade choppy markets because they are extremely difficult in my opinion so avoid this market at the current time and focus on silver.
Trend: Lower
Chart Structure: Poor

Silver futures in the December contract are trading lower by about $.30 this Friday afternoon in New York currently trading at 14.33 an ounce as I’ve been recommending a short position from around 14.70 and if you took that trade place your stop loss above the 10 day high which currently stands at 14.95 as you’re going to have to be patient as that stop loss will not be lower for quite some time. The next major level of support is at the contract low around the $14 mark and I do think that’s a possibility that could be retested in next week’s trade as the chart structure is still very solid at the current time. Silver prices settled last Friday at 14.55 while currently at 14.33 down over $.20 for the trading week as prices have been consolidating the recent downdraft in prices over the last three weeks, but the long-term and short-term trend still remain bearish in my opinion, so continue to play this to the downside while taking advantage of any price rally while maintaining the proper risk management strategy. Silver futures are trading below their 20 and 100 day moving average closing at 3 week low in today’s trade as the commodity markets still looks bearish in my opinion.
Trend: Lower
Chart Structure: Solid

The U.S. dollar index futures in the September contract are trading below their 20 day but still above their 100 day average telling you that the trend is mixed and has remained choppy for the last two weeks as I’m currently sitting on the sidelines waiting for a breakout above 96.63 to occur before entering a bullish position. The dollar settled last Friday at 96.24 while currently trading at 95.50 as investors are awaiting the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision which will come out next week and will certainly send high volatility into this market so keep a close eye on this trade as we could be involved in next week’s trade. I have not traded the currencies in quite some time but when I do see excellent chart structure coupled with a solid risk/reward situation I will trade the currency market but at this point the chart structure does not meet my criteria so sit on the sidelines and see what the Federal Reserve states, and in my opinion I think they will not raise interest rates at the current time as there is too much uncertainty especially in the stock market.
Trend: Mixed
Chart Structure: Improving

Coffee futures in the December contract are trading below their 20 and 100 day moving average hitting a multi year low while settling in New York last Friday at 119.15 a pound while currently trading at 117.50 down slightly for the week in low volatility. I’m currently sitting on the sidelines kicking myself as we should be entering a short position but the 10 day high is too far away and does not meet my risk/reward criteria, however I’m certainly not recommending any type of bullish position in this market as I do think prices could break 100 in the next month or so as ample supplies worldwide continue to keep a lid on prices. Many of the soft commodities including sugar and cocoa have rallied in recent weeks but has not help support coffee prices at all as this trend remains your friend and certainly the short-term trend is to the downside and if the chart structure does improve I will be recommending a short position which could happen in the next couple of days especially if a price rally occurs. I would imagine that volatility in coffee will start to increase as historically speaking coffee is one of the top five most volatile commodities in the world as this low volatility will not last.
Trend: Lower
Chart Structure: Improving

Mike has been a senior analyst for close to 15 years and has extensive knowledge of all of the commodity and option markets. Get more of Mike's calls on this Weeks Commodity Markets


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Weekly Crude Oil, Gold and Silver Markets Recap with Mike Seery

The markets end a wild week in about the same place it started. Another wild ride that makes us so thankful to have our trading partner Mike Seery back to give our readers a recap of this weeks stressful trading and help us put together a plan for the upcoming week. 

Mike has been a senior analyst for close to 15 years and has extensive knowledge of all of the commodity and option markets.

Crude oil futures in the October contract settled last Friday in New York at 40.45 a barrel while currently trading at 45.00 sharply higher for the trading week as a hurricane is entering the Gulf of Mexico sending prices sharply higher as I have been recommending a short position from 59 over the last three months getting stopped out in today’s trade as everything comes to an end as this market has bottomed in the short term so sit on the sidelines and look at other markets that are beginning to trend.

Many investors are running for the hills today as a relief rally has occurred in many of the commodity markets, however I’m still not bullish, but I’m not recommending any type of bullish position in this market at the current time as the chart structure is extremely poor and the risk is too high currently.

Political tensions with Yemen have also set prices higher but I truly believe this was just massive short covering as many of the funds have been short over many months and exited in today’s trade pushing prices higher but we will have to take a look if the open interest is declining or rising but in my opinion I think we will see the open interest decline which means short covering occurred.
Trend: Mixed
Chart Structure: Poor

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Gold futures in the December contract settled last Friday at 1,159 while currently trading at 1,133 in a wild and volatile trading week as I’ve been sitting on the sidelines as the chart structure is terrible at the current time as the risk/reward is not your favor so look at other markets.

Gold futures are trading above their 20 but still below their 100 day moving average rallying about $90 from their monthly low around 1,080 up to 1,170 in Monday’s trade as the stock market has sent shockwaves throughout the commodities and especially in gold. This market remains extremely choppy as I like trading markets with very tight chart structure as this will take some time to develop so keep an eye on this market but there is no recommendation at this time.

The problem with gold was the fact that the stock market was down dramatically in Monday’s trade but gold was unable to rally as over the course of time as I still see no reason to own gold but there is no trend and as a trend follower I will stick to my rules and look at other markets that are starting to develop.
Trend: Mixed
Chart Structure: Poor

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Silver futures in the December contract settled last Friday at 15.34 an ounce while currently trading at 14.53 down about $.80 for the trading week continuing its bearish momentum and traded slightly below $14 for the first time in 6 years. I am currently sitting on the sidelines as the chart structure is very poor as the 10 day high currently stands at 15.77 as the risk/reward is not in your favor, however I remain bearish so I want to keep a close eye on this as the chart structure will start to improve later next week therefore lowering monetary risk.

Silver futures are trading below their 20 and 100 day moving average telling you that the short term trend is to the downside as volatility is very high as many commodities have rallied this week as silver and gold have followed the footsteps of crude oil which was up about $8 for the trading week as the commodity washout may have stalled for the time being.

In my opinion take advantage of any sharp spike up in silver prices near the $15 level to enter into a short position as the trend is your friend when you trade the commodity markets but make sure you risk 2% of your account balance on any given trade so avoid this market at the current time but we could be entering a short position later next week.
Trend: Lower
Chart Structure: Poor

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Weekly Crude Oil, Gold, SP 500, Coffee and Sugar Markets Recap with Mike Seery

The markets closed out the week in brutal fashion for the bulls this week so we are happy to have our trading partner Mike Seery back to give our readers a recap of this weeks trading and help us put together a plan for the upcoming week. Mike has been a senior analyst for close to 15 years and has extensive knowledge of all of the commodity and option markets.

Crude oil futures in the October contract settled last Friday in New York at 43.11 a barrel while currently trading at 41.00 continuing its bearish momentum hitting a 6 ½ year low as I’ve been recommending a short position from $59 as we have now rolled over three times as we are now currently in the October contract as we started in July contract as prices still have not hit a 10 day high which currently stands at 46.00.

The chart structure will start to improve on a daily basis starting next week as prices are trading far below their 20 and 100 day moving average telling you that the trend is to the downside as the commodity markets continue to look weak as heating oil and gasoline prices continue to hit new lows as well as who knows how low prices could actually go, however if you have missed the original recommendation sit on the sidelines as you do not want to chase markets as you have missed the boat in my opinion.

The stock market has hit a 7 month low which is also putting pressure on commodity markets as everything looks weak in my opinion so continue to place the proper stop loss as worldwide supplies are overwhelming at the current time coupled with the fact of a relatively strong U.S dollar as there is very little bullish fundamental news except for possible shortcoming to push prices up here in the short term as this trade has been tremendous over the last three months.
Trend: Lower
Chart Structure: Improving

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Gold futures in the December contract settled in New York last Friday at 1,112 an ounce while currently trading at 1,157 up about $45 for the trading week on massive concerns of global slowdowns pushing stock prices to a 7 month low therefore putting money back into the precious metals as I’m currently sitting on the sidelines in this market getting stopped out around 1,105 or 10 day high around 10 days ago as Monday’s trade certainly will be interesting in my opinion.

The chart structure is extremely poor at the current time as we’ve had about an $80 rally from recent lows as prices traded as high as 1,168 earlier in the trading session but this market concerns me due to the fact that many of the commodity markets are headed lower as this is just a flight to quality here in the short term in my opinion.

Gold futures are trading above their 20 and 100 day moving average for the first time in several months as it looks to me that prices might head up to the $1,200 level but I have a hard time believing that gold will rally as demand from China and India at the current time are weak so look at other markets that are beginning to trend as I went through this before especially in 2008 when stock and commodity markets kept going down including gold as everybody had to sell everything because of margin calls and liquidity issues so keep a close eye on this market but at this time continue to look at other markets to sell which has been shooting fish in a barrel over the last 6 weeks.
Trend: Higher
Chart Structure: Poor

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The S&P 500 in the September contract is trading below its 20 and 100 day moving average for the first time in several months hitting a 7 month low settling last Friday in Chicago at 2089 while currently trading at 2001 down 88 points for the trading week as I’ve been recommending a short position from 2080 and if you took that trade place your stop loss above the 10 day high which currently stands at 2103 as the chart structure which once was excellent is now terrible.

If you have missed the original recommendation do not chase this market as the risk/reward is not the favor at the current time so look at other markets that are beginning to trend as the energy sector is pulling down the Dow Jones and the S&P 500 rather dramatically in the last couple of days as the commodity markets are showing real worldwide weakness as I will continue to remain short while taking advantage of any price rally.

As I’ve talked about in many previous blogs I hate selling the S&P 500 and I’ve only done it 2 times in the last 10 years but the risk/reward was highly in your favor so I took a shot and who knows how low prices can go as we are still only 5% from the record high as I think the next major resistance level is at 1950 which could be hit next week as volatility is extremely high with major risk at the current time.
Trend: Lower
Chart Structure: Terrible

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Coffee futures in the December contract settled last Friday in New York at 141.15 a pound while currently trading at 132.50 in a highly volatile last couple of weeks as prices are trading right at their 20 but still below their 100 day moving average telling you that the trend is mixed at the current time.

I’m currently sitting on the sidelines in this market as I was recommending a short position several weeks ago getting stopped out at the 10 day high which at the time was at 128 as the chart structure is very poor currently so I will be sitting on the sidelines for some time as prices did hit a 6 week high last Friday but unable to hold those levels due to the fact of a weak Brazilian Real and weak commodity prices throughout the world.

Volatility in coffee is extremely high as coffee historically speaking is one of the most volatile commodities, but I do not like trading choppy markets and at the current time this market is very choppy so I will wait for tighter chart structure to develop therefore lowering monetary risk with the next major level of support around the contract low of 120 as the soft commodities still look very weak as I’m currently recommending a short position in sugar and cocoa.
Trend: Mixed
Chart Structure: Poor

Sugar futures in the October contract settled last Friday in New York at 10.68 a pound while currently trading at 10.56 trading slightly lower for the trading week on very low volatility as I have been recommending a short position from 11.50 and if you took that trade continue to place your stop loss above the 10 day high which currently stands at 10.93 risking around 37 points or $400 per contract plus slippage and commission from today’s price levels.

Sugar futures are trading far below their 20 and 100 day moving average telling you that the trend is to the downside as the daily chart structure is excellent allowing a tight monetary stop therefore lowering risk as a weak Brazilian Real continues to put pressure on prices coupled with the fact that crude oil has hit a six year low which is also a negative influence on sugar prices as sugar is also used as a biodiesel so continue to play this to the downside in my opinion.

The next major level of support is 10.40 and if that is broken I think we could break 10.00 a pound possibly next week as I see no reason to own any commodity at the current time as worldwide deflation currently exists.
Trend: Lower
Chart Structure: Excellent

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Weekly Crude Oil, Gold, SP 500, Coffee and Sugar Markets Recap with Mike Seery

Fridays can be very telling, and while Fridays close in crude oil was not a clean break through support commodity traders need to be on their toes for Mondays open. So there is no better time to have our trading partner Mike Seery back to give our readers a recap of last weeks commodity futures market and help us put together a plan for the upcoming week. Mike has been a senior analyst for close to 15 years and has extensive knowledge of all of the commodity and option markets.

Crude oil futures in the September contract settled last Friday in New York at 47.12 a barrel while currently trading at 44.10 trading lower for the 3rd consecutive trading session as I’ve been recommending a short position over the last 8 weeks and if you took that trade place your stop loss above the 10 day high which currently stands at 49.52 as the trend seems to be getting stronger to the downside. Crude oil futures are trading far below their 20 and 100 day moving average telling you that the trend is sharply lower as the chart structure will not improve until later next week as it certainly looks to me that oil prices will retest $40 a barrel as a strong U.S dollar continues to put pressure on oil and many of the commodity markets.

Remember as a trader you must trade with the path of least resistance and the oil market is clearly to the downside as picking bottoms and picking tops is extremely difficult to do successfully over the course of time. Traders reacted to Friday mornings monthly unemployment report showing around 215,000 new jobs created as it certainly looks like an interest rate hike could be eminent in the month of September which is also very bearish the commodity markets in general so continue to play this to the downside, however if you did not take the original trade you have missed the boat as I don’t like to chase markets so look at other markets that are beginning to trend.
Trend: Lower
Chart Structure: Solid

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Gold futures in the December contract settled last Friday in New York at 1,095 an ounce currently trading at 1,095 as this market has been incredibly nonvolatile at the current time as prices have gone nowhere over the last three weeks as I’ve been recommending a short position from 1,170 & if you took that trade place your stop loss above the 10 day high which currently stands at 1,103 risking around $8 dollars or $250 per mini contract plus slippage and commission as the chart structure is outstanding.

I have been trading the commodity markets for a longtime and I can’t remember gold trading in such a nonvolatile manner as prices continually go nowhere which is putting me to sleep as I’m getting frustrated in this market because as a trader you want to look at markets that are moving but the risk/reward is in your favor so I will just keep the proper stop loss and if you are stopped out move on and look at other markets.

Gold futures are still trading below their 20 and 100 day moving average telling you that the trend is to the downside as a strong U.S dollar continues to keep a lid on the precious metal prices and I think that’s going to continue in 2015, however the stock market has hit a six month low and I think that’s starting to support prices as gold has had a very difficult time breaking 1,080 which is been hit on a half dozen occasions only to rally as prices remain in a very tight consolidation but continue to remain short.
Trend: Lower
Chart Structure: Outstanding

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The S&P 500 reacted negatively toward the monthly unemployment report and is trading lower for the 2nd consecutive trading session down another 14 points this afternoon in Chicago trading at 2064 in the September contract as I recommended a short position in Thursday trade while placing your stop loss above the 10 day high at 2110 now risking 44 points or $ 2,200 per mini contract plus slippage and commission as the chart structure is very tight at the current time.

If you have been following my previous blogs you understand I like to sell breakouts as this has not broken out to the downside, however the Dow Jones industrial has hit a six month low and has broken out so I chose the S&P 500 so take a shot as the commodity and stock markets around the world look vulnerable to another leg down.

If you take this trade my recommendation is to place your stop above the 10 day high, however you can also place the stop above the all time high which is 2127 which might be a better place if your account balance can withstand that loss in case we are wrong but it seems hard to believe with commodity prices plunging on a daily basis that the stock market can retain these lofty levels in my opinion as I've been recommending short positions in many of the commodity markets for several months as I think there are problems developing that we don't know just yet.
Trend: Lower
Chart Structure: Solid

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Coffee futures in the September contract settled last Friday at 125.25 while currently trading at 128 a pound up around 300 points for the trading week now trading above its 20 day but still below its 100 day moving average as I’ve been recommending a short position getting stopped out breaking even on this recommendation as this trade fizzled out at the very end.

I’m currently recommending to sit on the sidelines in the coffee market at this time as I’m a little disappointed getting stopped out, however we must move on and look at other markets that are beginning to trend as I’m still recommending a short position in sugar, cocoa, and cotton at the current time but keep a close eye on coffee as the trend can still remain bearish in the next couple of days as the chart structure still remains extremely tight so I’m not giving up on this trade but when prices hit a 10 day high it’s time to move on.

Many of the commodity markets were higher this afternoon as the U.S dollar reversed earlier gains but we are not seeing any real strength in the coffee market at the current time as the long term down trend line is still intact but I’m a short term trader which means I look for a four week high and four week lows as an entry point as you must be nimble and flexible and not always have a biased opinion as prices can change on a dime.
Trend: Mixed
Chart Structure: Solid

Sugar futures in the October contract settled in New York last Friday at 11.14 while currently trading at 10.65 a pound as I’ve been recommending a short position from around 11.50 and if you took that trade continue to place your stop loss above the 10 day high which now stands at 11.64 as the chart structure will start to improve later next week. Sugar futures are trading far below their 20 and 100 day moving average as the trend seems to be getting stronger on a weekly basis trading lower for the 2nd consecutive trading session as I think there is a possibility that sugar will crack 10.00 in next week’s trade as crude oil prices continue to plunge therefore pressuring sugar so continue to play this to the downside in my opinion as the risk/reward is still in your favor.

Many of the commodity markets were higher today including several soft commodities as the U.S dollar reversed earlier gains as many markets were probably oversold but to predict day to day action is extremely difficult as I would rather follow the path of least resistance which is to the downside as I’m strictly a trend follower so continue to take advantage of any rallies as I still think lower prices are ahead as supply issues continue to keep a lid on prices and unless lower production happens in 2016 I think prices grind much lower over the course of time.
Trend: Lower
Chart Structure: Solid

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Weekly Crude Oil, Gold, Silver, Coffee and Sugar Markets Recap with Mike Seery

There's been plenty of traders calling for a bottom in most commodities this week....but not so fast. So there is no better time to have our trading partner Mike Seery back to give our readers a recap of last weeks commodity futures market and help us put together a plan for the upcoming week. Mike has been a senior analyst for close to 15 years and has extensive knowledge of all of the commodity and option markets.

Crude oil futures in the September contract settled last Friday in New York at 48.14 a barrel while currently trading at 47.90 down slightly for the trading week still trading below its 20 and 100 day moving average as I’ve been recommending a short position over the last several months and if you took that trade place your stop above the 10 day high which now stands at 51.41 as that will improve on a daily basis starting next week. Crude oil futures are trading below their 20 and 100 day moving average telling you that the trend is to the downside as there is very little bullish fundamental news to push prices higher in the short term and I think that will continue for quite some time as the U.S dollar still remains relatively strong despite today’s steep decline.

Many of the commodity markets continue to go lower as deflation is a worldwide problem and has been over the last several years especially when the United States stopped there quantitative easing program which propped up all asset prices including most commodities. With the possibility of China slowing down the perception is that demand will also slow down so continue to place the proper stop loss which is just a little over $3 away as this trade as fallen out of bed over the last two months, but if you have missed this recommendation sit on the sidelines and look for another market that’s beginning to trend as you have missed the boat.
Trend: Lower
Chart Structure: Excellent

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Gold futures in the December contract settled last Friday at 1,086 while currently trading at 1,194 experiencing a wild trading session this Friday afternoon with the U.S dollar trading sharply lower as I’ve been recommending a short position in the August contract as we rolled over into the December contract today so continue to place your stop loss above the 10 day high which stands at 1,110 an ounce. Gold futures have traded sideways for the last two weeks and looks to be forming some type of short term bottom, but I will stick to my trading rules and keep the proper stop loss as I still see no reason to own gold but if we are stopped out move on and look at other markets that are beginning to trend as we have been short from around the 1,170 level as prices have stalled out in recent weeks. The problem with the precious metals and gold in particular is the fact that all of the interest lies in the S&P 500 which is still hovering around all time highs as money flows continue to come out of the precious metals and into the equity markets as I think that trend is to continue throughout 2015 and at this point I would rather own stocks than own gold so continue to play this to the downside in my opinion while risking 2% of your account balance on any given trade.
Trend: Lower
Chart Structure: Outstanding

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Silver futures in the September contract settled last Friday at 14.49 an ounce while currently trading at 14.80 up about $.30 for the trading week still trading below their 20 & 100 day moving average as I’ve been short from 15.80 and if you took that trade place your stop loss at 14.99 which is the 10 day high as the chart structure is outstanding at the current time. Silver prices continue to bounce off of 14.50 as it looks to be forming a bottoming pattern but I will stick to my rules as we are just an eyelash away from getting stopped out as silver had a 40 cent trading range this Friday afternoon as the U.S dollar is down 100 points, however the trend is still lower and if we are stopped out move on and let’s find another market that’s beginning to trend as volatility is relatively low at the current time.

The Federal Reserve continues to want the inflation rate to hit 2% so they can start to raise interest rates but at this point there is very little worldwide demand for any commodity especially due to the fact that China looks to be falling off a cliff as they are the largest importer of commodities in the world and if you have not sold silver at this time the risk/reward is highly in your favor risking $.20 or $200 per mini contract plus slippage and commission as we will see what Monday’s trade brings.
Trend: Lower
Chart Structure: Outstanding

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Coffee futures settled higher for the 3rd consecutive trading session settling last Friday at 122.25 a pound while currently trading at 125.30 still trading below its 20 and 100 day moving average as I’ve been recommending a short position from the 128 level and if you took that trade place your stop loss above the 10 day high which currently stands at 128.20 as the chart structure is outstanding at the current time. The next major level of support is the contract low around 120 but I still think we can retest the January 2014 lows of 105 and if you did not take the original trade I would still sell at today’s price as the risk is around 300 points or 1,200 risk per contract plus slippage and commission. I am currently recommending short positions in cocoa, sugar, coffee as volatility is relatively low but as a trend follower I will stick to my guns on this and continue to place the proper stop loss while maintaining the proper risk management strategy of 2% of your account balance on any given trade.
Trend: Lower
Chart Structure: Outstanding

Sugar futures in the October contract settled last Friday in New York at 11.24 a pound while currently trading at 11.16 basically unchanged for the trading week as I’ve been recommending a short position from around 11.50 and if you took that recommendation the chart structure is outstanding at the current time so place your stop above the 10 day high at 11.72 risking around 50 points or $550 per contract plus slippage and commission. Sugar futures are trading far below their 20 and over 150 points below their 100 day moving average telling you that the trend is getting stronger to the downside as oversupply and over production should continue to put pressure on prices despite the fact that the U.S dollar is down over 100 points but that’s still not supporting sugar prices at this time. The reason I decided to take this trade was the fact of extremely tight chart structure which lowers monetary risk as that met my criteria to enter into a trade as I still think that there’s a possibility that prices could break 10.00 a pound in the next several weeks so continue to play this to the downside as the risk/reward is highly in your favor in my opinion.
Trend: Lower
Chart Structure: Excellent

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Weekly Crude Oil, Gold, Silver, Coffee and Sugar Markets Recap with Mike Seery

It's been a terrible week for the crude oil bulls. And our trading partner Mike Seery is back this week to give our readers a weekly recap of crude oil as well as the futures market. Mike has been a senior analyst for close to 15 years and has extensive knowledge of all of the commodity and option markets.

Crude oil futures in the September contract are trading far below their 20 and 100 day moving average telling you that the trend is to the downside after settling in New York last Friday at 51.21 currently trading at 48.45 down nearly $3 for the trading week as I’ve been recommending a short position for the last two months and if you took that trade place your stop loss above the 10 day high which currently stands at 54.00 a barrel.

The trend in the commodity markets is weak as everything seems to be melting down and remember as a commodity trader in my opinion you must trade with the trend so continue to play this to the downside. Crude oil has huge worldwide supplies coupled with a strong U.S dollar as I think prices will re-test the $45 level so continue to place the proper stop loss trying to get as much as 75% of the trend as picking tops and bottoms is impossible over the long haul in my opinion.

The stop loss will not improve for another week so you’re going to have to be patient as volatility currently is high and should remain so for weeks to come as I still believe prices are too expensive.
Trend: Lower
Chart Structure: Improving

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Gold futures in the August contract settled last Friday in New York at 1,132 an ounce while currently trading at 1,082 down about $50 for the trading week continuing its remarkable bearish trend as I’ve been recommending a short position when prices broke 1,170 and if you took that trade continue to place your stop loss above the 10 day high which currently stands at 1,160 as the chart structure will start to improve on a daily basis starting next week.

Gold prices are trading far below its 20 and 100 day moving average telling you that the short-term trend is to the downside as the next level of support is around 1,050 as I think that could be tested in next week’s trade as there’s no reason to own gold and if you’ve been reading any of my previous blogs you understand how bearish I am of the entire commodity sector as a whole. Silver prices are also hitting a six year low as I’m also recommending a short position in that market as all of the interest lies in the S&P 500 which is slightly lower this afternoon as money flows continue to come out of the precious metals and into the stock market and I don’t see that trend ending any time soon.

The U.S dollar is near a six week which continues to keep a lid on commodity prices coupled with the fact of higher U.S interest rates possibly coming later in the year as both act as negative influences on commodities historically speaking.
Trend: Lower
Chart Structure: Poor

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Silver futures in the September contract settled last Friday at 14.83 an ounce while currently trading at 14.33 down $.50 for the trading week as I’ve been recommending a short position when prices broke 15.80 and if you took that trade place your stop above the 10 day high at 15.50 as the chart structure will improve starting next week. I sound like a broken record as I continue to recommend bearish commodity plays as deflation is the problem not inflation as a strong U.S dollar will continue throughout 2015 in my opinion as gold prices are sharply lower this week as I’ve been recommending a short position in that market as the commodity market looks to have another leg down in my opinion.

The problem with the precious metals and silver is the fact that all the interest lies in the S&P 500 which is right around its all time highs as nobody wants to own the precious metals as a safe haven as the trend is your friend and clearly the trend in silver is to downside with the next major support at $14 and if that’s broken who knows how low prices could actually go. Silver futures are trading below their 20 day and far below their 100 day moving average telling you that the trend is getting stronger to the downside, however if you have missed the original recommendation sit on the sidelines and wait for the risk/reward to be in your favor which includes better chart structure.
Trend: Lower
Chart Structure: Poor

You Might Want to Know What's Behind our "Big Trade"

Coffee futures in the September contract settled last Friday at 128.40 while currently trading at 122.00 down around 600 points for the trading week as I’ve been recommending a short position and if you took that trade continue to place your stop loss above the 10 day high which currently stands at 132.50 as the chart structure will start to improve later next week. The original recommendation was to sell around the 128 level as the chart structure at that time was outstanding as the risk/reward was is your favor however, if you have not taken this trade you’re going to have to wait for some type price rally before entering. Coffee futures are trading below their 20 and 100 day moving average telling you that the trend is to the downside as I think a possible retest of the January 2014 lows around 105 could happen in the weeks to come due to the fact with large worldwide supplies coupled with the fact of a strong U.S dollar versus the Brazilian Real so I remain bearish.
Trend: Lower
Chart Structure: Poor

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Sugar futures in the October contract settled in New York last Friday at 11.96 while currently trading at 11.34 hitting a six year low as I’m currently sitting on the sidelines as the chart structure is poor as the 10 day high is too far away at 12.80 but I want to keep an eye on this market as the chart structure will improve next week as it looks like we will be playing this to the downside. Sugar futures are trading below their 20 and 100 day moving average as the long term and short term trend remain intact as the commodity markets in general remain weak and if you’ve been following my blogs you understand that I’ve been recommending a short position in many different sectors, however a 150 point risk in sugar is too high as the risk/reward is not in your favor in my opinion but I’m certainly not recommending any type of bullish position as over supplies continue to keep a lid on prices.
Trend: Lower
Chart Structure: Poor

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Spotting Reversals Using Simple Patterns in the Markets

With so many commodities trying to scratch out a bottom right now the timing couldn't be better for our trading partner John Carters release of his new eBook "Learn How Human Emotions Produces Patterns in the Markets".

In this eBook, you will learn....

  *  The 10 chart patterns ALL traders should know
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  *  Spot reversals using patterns
  *  How to call the top using patterns

And a whole lot more!

Take your emotions out of trading positions like.....crude oil, gold, coffee and sugar, just to name a few.

The crude oil, gold, coffee and sugar bulls took another beating this week and it's no surprise traders are dumping positions like crazy. Don't let your emotions get the best of you, put John's simple trading methods to work recognizing those reversals and be ready for them.

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See you in the markets putting this to work,
Ray C. Parrish
President/CEO at the Crude Oil Trader


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Weekly Crude Oil, Gold, Silver, Coffee and Sugar Markets Recap with Mike Seery

It's been a wild ride in the markets this week. And our trading partner Mike Seery is back this week to give our readers a weekly recap of the futures market. He has been a senior analyst for close to 15 years and has extensive knowledge of all of the commodity and option markets.

Crude oil futures in the August contract settled last Friday at 52.74 a barrel while currently trading at 50.78 down about $2 for the trading week hitting a four month low while still trading far below its 20 and 100 day moving average telling you that the trend is to the downside as I’ve been recommending a short position for six weeks and if you took that trade the 10 day stop has been lowered to 53.90 as the chart structure has improved tremendously.

Oil prices retreated this week due to the fact that of the Iranian deal which should put more oil onto the market down the road as 49 is major support and if that is broken you could have sharply lower prices ahead as oversupply issues still remain as the commodity markets still look weak due to the fact of a very strong U.S dollar which hit a six week high in this week’s trade.

The precious metals continue to make new lows as well as generally speaking metal prices and energy prices go hand in hand in the same direction and that direction is to the downside so continue to place the proper stop loss as this has been an outstanding trade over the course of time as are patience were tested but the path of least resistance is the successful way to trade in my opinion.
Trend: Lower
Chart Structure: Excellent

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Gold futures in the August contract settled last Friday in New York at 1,158 an ounce while currently trading at 1,137 down about $20 for the week hitting a five year low as I’ve been recommending a short position when prices broke 1,170 and if you took the original recommendation place your stop loss at the 10 day high which was lowered to 1,170 as the chart structure will start to improve on a daily basis.

Gold prices are trading far below their 20 and 100 day moving average as prices look to head lower as I’ve talked about in many previous blogs I see absolutely no reason to own the precious metals at the current time as deflation is a worldwide problem as the U.S dollar hit a six week high in this week’s trade.

Crude oil prices are also continuing their bearish trend which is also pressuring the precious metals and silver is also right near recent lows so continue to play by the rules while taking advantage of any rallies as I would like to add to this trade as I think we will break 1,100 possibly in the next couple of weeks as the trend is getting stronger on a weekly basis as the risk/reward still meets criteria.

The stock market is hitting all time highs once again today as I talked about many times all the interest lays in the equity market and not the precious metals as money flows continue to come out of the metals & into equities as that should continue in 2015 so remain short.
Trend: Lower
Chart Structure: Excellent

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Silver futures in the September contract continued their bearish momentum settling last Friday in New York at 15.48 an ounce while currently trading at 14.80 down about $.70 for the trading week as I’ve been recommending a short position from 15.80 and if you took that trade place your stop loss above the 10 day high which currently stands at 15.90 as the chart structure will not improve for several more trading days as silver prices have hit a five year low.

Silver futures are trading far below their 20 and 100 day moving average with a possible retest of last week’s low around 14.62 in the cards and if that level is broken I think there could be a washout to the downside as there’s no reason to own the precious metals at the current time as the U.S dollar hit a six week high.

Platinum prices have cracked $1,000 which has not happened in over five years as the dollar continues to put pressure on gold and silver prices here in the short term as deflation is a worldwide problem not inflation so continue to take advantage of any rallies will placing the proper stop loss as I think lower prices are still ahead despite this weeks 70 cent decline.
Trend: Lower
Chart Structure: Improving

You Might Want to Know What's Behind our "Big Trade"

Coffee futures in the September contract settled last Friday in New York at 126.25 a pound while currently trading at 128.30 as I’ve been recommending a short position from around this level as the chart structure is outstanding at the current time as the 10 day high stands at 132.50 risking around 400 points or $1,600 from today’s price levels plus slippage and commission.

Coffee prices continue to move lower on a weekly basis as the downtrend line remains intact, however if you have not taken this recommendation I am still promoting a sell order at today’s levels as the risk/reward is highly in your favor as coffee is an extremely large contract as I do think the retest of the contract low around 125 could be in the cards next week.

The problem with coffee prices and many of the agricultural markets is that we have too much supply coupled with the fact of an extremely weak Brazilian Real versus the U.S dollar which is pressuring anything that’s grown in the country of Brazil so take a shot at the downside as the risk and the chart structure both meet my criteria to enter into a trade, however if we are stopped out which there is that possibility since the stop is so close look at other markets that are trending and don’t be stubborn.
Trend: Lower
Chart Structure: Outstanding

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Sugar futures in the October contract settled last Friday in New York at 12.41 a pound while trading at 11.98 down around 40 points for the trading week as I’ve been sitting on the sidelines in this market as the trend remains choppy as prices are trading lower for the 3rd consecutive down day still trading below its 20 and 100 day moving average, as the down trend line is still intact but I’m waiting for a breakout to occur which would be the contract low of 11.52 to the downside.

Many of the commodity markets have been going lower including crude oil which is also putting pressure on sugar prices as sugar is used as a biodiesel but the real problem is the U.S dollar which continues to move higher as I’m not bullish any commodity at this time as oversupply issues and deflation worldwide continues to put pressure on prices.

Sometimes the best thing to do is not trade and avoid markets at certain times and that’s what I’m stressing right now as choppiness is difficult and frustrating as there are many other markets that are trending significantly to the downside such as gold, silver, hogs, and several others.
Trend: Mixed
Chart Structure: Solid

Get more of Mike's calls on this Weeks Commodity Markets