How to Spot Boom and Bust Cycles

One of the most important aspects of trading is being able to properly identify major market cycles and trends. The markets will typically move between four separate stages: Bottoming/Basing, Rallying, Topping/Distribution, and Bearish Trending. Each of these phases of market trends is often associated with various degrees of market segment trending as well. 

 For example, one of the most telling phrases of when the stock market is nearing an eventual Topping/Distribution phase is when the housing market gets super-heated. Yet, one of the most difficult aspects of this Excess Phase rally trend is that it can last many months or years, and usually longer than many people expect.

When an Excess Phase rally is taking place in the stock market, we expect to see the Lumber vs. Gold ratio moving higher and typically see the RSI indicator stay above 50. Demand for lumber, a commodity necessary for building, remodeling, and other consumer essential spending, translates well as an economic barometer for big ticket consumer spending. 

Extreme peaks in this ratio can often warn of a pending shift in consumer spending and how the stock market reacts to an Excess Phase Peak. Let’s take a look at some of the historical reference points on this longer term Weekly Lumber vs. Gold chart....Read More Here.

Gold Setting Up Major Bottom So Could We See A Breakout Rally Begin Soon?

There has been quite a bit of chatter related to precious metals lately. The rally in Cryptos, particularly Bitcoin, and various other stocks have raised expectations that Gold and Silver have been overlooked as a true hedging instrument. As these rallies continue in various other stocks and sectors, Gold and Silver have continued to trade sideways over the past 6+ months – when and how will it end?

Gold Support Near $1765 May Become a New Launchpad

My research team and I believe the recent downside trend in Gold has reached a support level, near $1765, that will act as a launching pad for a potentially big upside price trend. This support level aligns with previous price highs (May 2020 through June 2020) after the Covid-19 price collapse, which we believe is an indication of a strong support level. As you can see from the Gold Futures Weekly chart below, if Gold price levels hold above $1765 then we feel the next upside rally in metals could prompt a move targeting $2160, then $2400....Read More Here.

Platinum Begins Big Breakout Rally....What Does That Mean for Investors & Traders?

If you were not paying attention, Platinum began to rally much higher over the past 3+ days – initiating a new breakout rally and pushing well above the $1250 level. What you may not have noticed with this breakout move is that commodities are hot – and inflation is starting to heat up. What does that mean for investors/traders?

Daily Platinum Chart Shows Clear Breakout Trend

First, Platinum is used in various forms for industrial and manufacturing, as well as jewelry and numismatic functions (minting/collecting). This move in Platinum is more likely related to the increasing inflationary pressures we’ve seen in the Commodity sector coupled with the increasing demand from the surging global economy (nearing a post-COVID-19 recovery). The most important aspect of this move is the upward pricing pressure that will translate into Gold, Silver, and Palladium.

We’ve long suggested that Platinum would likely lead a rally in precious metals and that a breakout move in platinum could prompt a broader uptrend in other precious metals. Now, the combination of this type of rally in Platinum combined with the Commodity rally and the inflationary pressures suggests the global markets could be in for a wild ride over the next 12 to 24+ months....Read More Here.

Our Custom Valuations Index Suggests Precious Metals Will Decline Before Their Next Attempt to Rally

My team prepares Custom Valuations Index charts to understand how capital is being deployed in the global markets alongside U.S. Dollar and Treasury Yields. The purpose of the Custom Index charts in this article is to provide better insight into and understanding of underlying capital movements in various market conditions. 

 Recently, we discovered the Custom Index chart shares a keen alignment with Gold (and likely the general precious metals sector). Let’s explore our recent analysis to help readers understand what to expect next in precious metals.

Weekly Custom Valuations Index Chart

The first thing that caught my attention was the very clear decline in the weekly Custom Valuations Index recently, as can be seen in the chart below. The second peak on the Custom Valuations Index chart occurred on the week of August 3, 2020. Gold also peaked at this very same time. This alignment started an exploratory analysis of the Custom Valuations Index and the potential alignment with the precious metals sector....Read More Here.

Review of our recent BAN trade in SILJ

After recently closing our SILJ BAN trade, I want to take this opportunity to dissect our trade, including the process of selecting the proper exit targets and protecting capital within a trade. The BAN Trader Pro strategy incorporates these same techniques automatically within the decision making process of generating signals and taking trades.

With our recent SILJ trade, we initiated the entry on the upside breakout in price on November 5, 2020 – near $15.50. This upside breakout move prompted a new BAN trade trigger with SILJ near the top of the BAN Hotlist, suggesting further upside trending would continue.

Of course, nothing ever happens 100% as expected... like the announcement of Pfizer's vaccine being 90% effective coming out only days after making the trade! The immediate downturn in price activity resulted in our SILJ trade staying below our entry price for more than 30 days. Read on to see how we still made money on the trade....Read More Here.

Long Term Gold/U.S. Dollar Cycles Show Big Trends for Metals - Part II

In the first part of our U.S. dollar and gold research, we highlighted the U.S. dollar vs. gold trends and how we believe precious metals have recently bottomed while the U.S. dollar may be starting a broad decline. We are highlighting this because many of our friends and followers have asked us to put some research out related to the U.S. dollar decline. Back in November, we published an article that highlighted the Appreciation/Depreciation phases of the market. This past research article – How To Spot The End Of An Excess Phase – Part II – is an excellent review item for today’s Part II conclusion to our current article.

Custom Metals Index Channels & Trends

Our Weekly Custom Metals Index chart, below, highlights the major bottom in precious metals in late 2015 as well as the continued upside price rally that is taking place in precious metals. If our research is correct, the bottom that formed in 2015 was a “half cycle bottom” – where the major cycle dates span from 2010 to 2019 or so. This half cycle bottom suggests risk factors related to the global market and massive credit expansion after the 2008-09 credit crisis may have sparked an early appreciation phase in precious metals – launching precious metals higher nearly 3 to 4 years before the traditional cycle phases would normally end/reverse....Continue Reading Here.

Gold Wave Forecast - Is Gold Going to $3,750 or Higher?

Watching gold fall to recent lows over the past few weeks has been heartbreaking for gold bugs. We know the real value of precious metals has continued to be under appreciated over the past 24+ months – even though gold has rallied from $1165 to over $2085 (an incredible 79%). The recent 15% decline in gold has shaken some investors away from the longer term opportunities, so we wanted to share our research and highlight some simple Elliot Wave structures with you.

My research team and I believe the recent downward price trend in gold is an ideal setup for an intermediate wave 4 pullback of a broader wave 3 advance. In other words, we believe gold is in the midst of a broad advance cycle that may eventually push price levels to $5000 and above. But, we’ll focus on right now and what we believe is setting up from a technical analysis perspective.

The first thing to remember about Elliot Wave Analysis is that we must consider the broad market trends, the intermediate market trends, and the short term wave formations. With almost all types of technical analysis, we focus on different time perspectives of price trends and setups to help us better determine opportunities and outcomes....Continue Reading Here.

Gold's Momentous Rally from 2000 Compared to SPY and QQQ - Part I

My research team and I went off on a wild tangent trying to identify how the markets could react to the recent spike in price activity on Monday, November 9, 2020. This is the day that Pfizer announced a 90% effective rate with its new COVID-19 vaccine, causing the US stock market to skyrocket higher before the opening bell in New York. As with most pop and drops, this incredible upside spike trailed lower for the remainder of the trading day. My research team was curious if this type of setup presented any real future outcome or trends. To this end, we focused on the QQQ and the SPY in relationship to Gold.

9 to 9 1/2 Year Gold Depreciation Cycle Ended in 2018 – What’s Next? 

Gold has been and continues to be a store of value for many around the world. At some times in history, Gold becomes undervalued in comparison to other assets (like stocks, real estate, and other tangible assets). At other times, Gold becomes more highly valued in comparison to other assets. This cycle has taken place throughout hundreds of years of history, and is rooted in the changing perceptions of market participants regarding “what/where is true value in the markets”.

When other assets are skyrocketing higher, Gold is out of favor in terms of real demand. It may still be moving higher in value, but as long as other assets seem to be increasing in value faster than Gold, demand for Gold will diminish. When most other assets enter a time of great concern or devaluation, Gold and Precious Metals usually begin to see stronger demand as the ratio between Gold prices and more traditional investment assets may be near extremes....Continue Reading Here.

Crude Oil Stalls in Resistance Zone

Clear Price Channel May Prompt Big Breakout or Breakdown Move in Oil

In this report, we discuss the recent price action in crude oil and how economic conditions and the pennant flag chart pattern is indicating a big price move is about to take place over the next few weeks. While some of you may want a clear, bold prediction as to whether a breakout or breakdown may happen, as technical traders, our job is to predict different possible setups and identify the criteria that will tell us when to enter the trade upon confirmation.

Crude Oil has continued to retest the $41.75 to $42.00 resistance level over the past 30+ days. My research team believes this represents a very clear indication that further failure to advance above this level will prompt a moderate price decline – likely breaking below the $36.00 ppb price level.

We believe the completed Pennant/Flag Apex, highlighted in Light Green on the Crude Oil Futures chart below, represents a technical pattern suggesting a new price trend is pending. The recent sideways price action, highlighted by the Gold Rectangle on this chart, shows the range of price recently that is currently presenting a very clear support level (near $36) and a very clear resistance level (near $42)....Continue Reading Here.

Learn Why Energy Stocks are Underperforming

Financial Survival Network Interview Highlights....

• After a 30 year rally in the bond market, interest rates can’t go much higher given the lack of trust resulting in marginal returns. 

• The lack of demand coupled with too much supply in the oil market has oil companies losing money   at these prices. Energy stocks have been underperforming which will likely continue until demand picks up or supply is significantly curtailed. 

• Any stock market weakness or strength in the US dollar will likely lead to $1,810 Gold and $21 Silver.

Listen To The Podcast Here 

Gold Setting Up Just Like Before the Covid19 Breakdown Get Ready

Research Highlights....

• Gold rebounded quickly and broke to higher prices after the COVID deep selling.

• Our Fibonacci support levels for Gold are resting near $1,885, $1,815 & $1,790.

• More downside pressure on price is possible, but if support is maintained at $1,885 then we could see a big upside recovery trend take Gold to $2,250.

Just before the COVID-19 collapse in the markets hit near February 25, 2020, Gold started a double-dip move after reaching $1,692 on February 24. First, Gold dipped from $1,692 to $1,564, then recovered to new highs ($1,704.50) on March 10, 2020. Then, as the deeper COVID-19 selling continued, Gold prices dipped again – this time targeting a low level of $1,450.90.

What we found interesting is how quickly Gold prices recovered and broke to even higher price levels after this deep selling. Our belief is that when a crisis event first hits, which we sometimes call the “shock-wave”, all assets take a beating – including Gold and Silver. This is the event where traders and investors pull everything to CASH (closing positions). Then, as the shock-wave ends, traders re-evaluate the price levels of assets to determine how they want to deploy their capital....Continue Reading Here.

Global Markets Break Hard to the Downside - Watch These Support Levels

Research Highlights....

• New reports of widespread financial corruption likely triggered the current sell off.

• Watch out for market support levels to see if this is a short term correction or the start of a downtrend.

• Support for the DOW is just above 26,000.

• Support for the SP500 is around 3,100.

U.S. and global markets were already under pressure over the past few weeks related to COVID-19 issues and global economic expectations. The technology sector had driven valuations to levels not seen since the DOT COM bubble near the end of August and many of the US Indexes has reached or breached all time highs again.

My research team and I warned followers to “stay cautious” throughout much of the price rally as our proprietary price modeling systems suggests the rally was isolated and not organic. The U.S. Fed has spewed capital into the markets and speculative traders piled into the “excess phase” of the market to drive price levels higher. Take a moment to review these recent research posts to learn more....Continue Reading Here.

Platinum and Palladium Set to Surge as Gold Breaks Higher

Research Highlights....

* Gold will target the $2,250 level before stalling and attempting

   another upside price rally targeting $2,500 or higher. 

* Silver will target the $33 price level when the current upside 

   move builds enough momentum, then target $38 or higher. 

* Our next upside price target for platinum is $1,410, 

   representing a +52.4% upside price target. 

* Palladium bottom in March 2020 was near $1,357. We expect a new upside price target for Palladium

   near $3,663 once it has broken out past current resistance levels. 

If you have been following my research for a while, you are already aware of past research posts suggesting Gold and Silver will advance in multiple upside price legs over the next 90+ days. Gold will target the $2,250 level before stalling and attempting another upside price rally targeting $2,500 or higher. Silver will target the $33 price level when the current upside move builds enough momentum, then target $38 or higher.

What you may not be aware of is the incredible opportunities setting up in Platinum and Palladium. Platinum has set up a very deep COVID-19 low near $550 and rallied back to briefly touch resistance near $1,035 as we can see in the Palladium Weekly chart below. Since that move, Platinum has stalled below $1,000 waiting for momentum to start another upside price leg. 

Using a simple 100% Fibonacci Measured move technique, we can easily identify the $485 price swing from the $1,035 highs to the $550 lows. All we need to do is find a support level near what we believe will be the Momentum Base level, then add that $485 to the Momentum Base level to find the next upside target in Platinum....Continue Reading Here.

It’s Go Time for Gold - Next Stop $2,250

Research Highlights....

* Gold Pennant/Flag formation is now complete and setting

   up new momentum base near $1,925. 

* Our Adaptive Fibonacci Models suggest support will prompt 

   new Gold rally to $2,250.

* The rally in Gold will continue to extend higher over the next

   4+ weeks.

The U.S. Dollar may move lower and/or the US stock market may break recent support to prompt this new rally in Gold. If you are a follower of my research, then you know I follow gold and silver closely. I believe Gold has completed a Pennant/Flag formation and has completed the Pennant Apex. 

Further, a new momentum base has setup near $1,925 - $1,930, near the upper range of our Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling System’s support range. My team and I believe the current upside price move after the Pennant Apex may be the start of a momentum base rally targeting the $2,250 level or higher.....Continue Reading Here.

Precious Metals Cycles Demand Attention

Over the past few weeks and months, my research team and I have been actively publishing this research to help you better understand what is really happening in the markets right now. With Gold trading above $2,000 for the first time and Silver trading near $27.50, skilled traders need to understand the risks in the markets that precious metals are warning of. Think of it like this, as long as Gold continues to trade near or above $1900, the risk levels in the global markets are at extreme levels for traders and investors. If Gold breaks above $2,400, then there is a very real concern that the global markets could be close to some type of decline/collapse event.

1990 TO 2010: SIMILARITIES ABOUND

My research team believes the US stock market has already peaked near the January/February 2018 market highs. Our proprietary index analysis and price modeling systems suggest the US stock market has been buoyed by the U.S. Federal Reserve stimulus and foreign capital inflows (investment) while the US Dollar has strengthened. This trend may continue for a number of weeks or months, but precious metals are already warning that real fear has accelerated to levels we’ve not seen since 2010-2011....Continue Reading Here.

Caution Advised Before Gold Targets $5000 and Silver Targets $100

Tom welcomes Chris, the founder of Technical Traders, back to the program. Chris discusses the enormous short position on silver and why it will take a while to unwind.

To subscribe to our newsletter and get notified of new shows, please visit http://palisaderadio.com Silver has hit his previous targets and appears to be moving higher. He says, “We are now in a bull market for silver,” and he gives us his next targets. More upside remains for the metals, but the broader markets will probably roll over later this year. That will likely spark a sell off and after that correction who knows how high silver and gold can go.

Currently, there is zero fear in this market, and investors are becoming overleveraged. This is typically when everyone gets caught holding the bag, and while the Fed may try, they probably can’t maintain this level of market momentum.

The dollar is beginning to fall, having broken its March lows and appears set up for a significant downtrend.

The problems today are bigger than in 2008, and as the economy worsens, the Fed will attempt to print more, which can only be bullish for metals. Globally, interest in gold due is increasing due to concerns about the economy and policies of central banks.

Time Stamp References:

* Shorts are starting to sweat.
* Silver technicals.
* Timeline for targets.
* Exposure and volatility.
* US Fiscal cliff and the dollar.
* Gold and Silver in a general equity drop.
* Transportation index and signals.
* Trend for oil and possible correction.
* Real estate and commercial in particular.
* Caution from here?


   Watch the Video Here

Silver Begins Big Upside Rally Attempt

The move we saw in Silver early this week to new 6-year high price levels, above $22.60, is quite likely the biggest upside move in Silver since the bottom in March 2020 – after the US stock market collapsed because of the COVID-19 virus event. This new rally in Silver is likely the move we’ve been suggesting to our followers relating to a series of measured upside price moves totaling approximately $5.30 in each advance.

We wrote about these measured price moves in Gold and Silver in this article – Click Here

As traders, watching bonds accelerate moderately higher as the US Dollar falls and the stock market attempts new lofty levels, we are intrigued by the move in metals because it suggests a large segment of investors believe a bubble is nearing very peak valuation levels. The only reason metals, particularly Silver, would be accelerating as it has recently is that traders have suddenly adopted a stronger demand for second stage hedging of risk....Continue Reading Here.

Retail Traders & Investors Squeezed to Buy High Risk Assets Again

Yes, we certainly live in interesting times. This, the last segment of our multi-part article on the current Q2 and Q3 2020 US and global economic expectations, as well as current data points, referencing very real ongoing concerns, we urge you to continue using common sense to help protect your assets and families from what we believe will be a very volatile end to 2020. If you missed the first two segments of this research article, please take a moment to review them before continuing.

On May 24th, 2020, we published this research article related to our super cycle research. It is critical that you understand what is really happening in the world as we move through these major 21 to 85+ year super-cycles and apply that knowledge to the data we have presented in the first two segments of this research post. Within that article, we quoted Ray Dalio from a recent article published related to his cycle research.

That rather chilling statement suggests one thing that we all need to be aware of at this time: what the current and future economic cycles will likely present and how the world will navigate through this process of a cycle transition....Continue Reading Here

Wild Volatility Continues as U.S. Markets Attempt to Establish New Trend

We’ve continued to attempt to warn investors of the risks ahead for the U.S. and global markets by generating these research posts and by providing very clear data supporting our conclusions. Throughout the entire months of May and June, we’ve seen various economic data points report very mixed results – and in some cases, surprise numbers as a result of the deep economic collapse related to the COVID-19 virus event. This research post should help to clear things up going forward for most traders/investors.

As technical traders, we attempt to digest these economic data factors into technical and price analysis while determining where and what to trade. We attempt to identify the “Best Asset Now” (BAN) for trading based on our proprietary technical analysis and predictive modeling tools. We also attempt to stay away from excessive risks in the markets. The reason we adopt this strategy is to help protect assets and to attempt to assist our clients and followers in avoiding sometimes foolish trading decisions that can destroy your account and future.....Read More Here

Gold & Silver “Washout” - Get Ready for a Big Move Higher

Gold and Silver moved lower early on June 2nd and 3rd. Our research team believes this is a “Washout Low” price rotation following a technical pattern that will prompt a much higher rally in precious metals. This type of washout price rotation is fairly common before very big moves after Pennant/Flag formations or just after reaching major price trigger levels.

With Gold, a sideways Pennant/Flag formation has been setting up near our GREEN Fibonacci Price Amplitude Resistance Arc. We believe the downward price rotation recently is a perfect setup for skilled technical traders to take advantage of lower entry price levels. The GREEN Fibonacci Price Amplitude Arc will very likely be breached over the next 5 to 10 trading days and the price of Gold should rally well above $1850 in the process. We believe this Washout Rotation is a process of running through the Long Stops just below recent price activity that will end with a defined upside price rally over the next 2 to 5+ weeks.

Before we continue, be sure to opt-in to our free market trend signals 

 before closing this page, so you don’t miss our next special report!

Silver has set up a completely different type of price pattern – a true Double-Top pattern. The downward price rotation recently in Silver is indicative of a weaker reaction to this massive resistance pattern and Double-Top. The likelihood that Silver will find support above $17 and mount a further upside price rally over the next 2 to 5+ weeks is still very strong. After the deep downward price collapse in Silver took place, just like what happened in 2009 and 2010, the upside potential for Silver is still massive – likely targeting $65 per ounce of higher.

This current Gold to Silver Ratio Monthly chart highlights the recent collapse in the ratio level as Silver rallied from near $12 towards current levels near $18. A similar spike in the Gold to Silver Ratio took place in 2008-09 – just before the broader market collapse in the US and Global markets took place. This happens as the initial reaction to risk in the global markets pushes Gold prices a bit higher while Silver, the often overlooked store of value, typically declines in value.

Once the price of Silver starts to rally, pushing the Gold to Silver ratio below 60 typically, both Gold and Silver start to align in price and begin to rally together. The current level of the Gold to Silver ratio is 94.9. This suggests that both Gold and Silver have quite a way to go in terms of reaching the “alignment phase”. Our researchers believe Gold will rally above $2100 to $2400 and Silver will rally above $40 to $50 before the two metals align and begin to rally together in almost equal strength.

Concluding Thoughts

Pay attention to what happens to precious metals over the next 10 to 15+ days. If our research is correct, both Gold and Silver will rally higher by about 7.5% to 14% – setting up new price highs for both metals. When the washout pattern completes, usually a fairly aggressive price trend begins where new price highs are established fairly quickly. Get ready, this should be a really nice upside price swing in precious metals over the next 6+ months or longer.

The next few years are going to be full of incredible opportunities for skilled traders and investors. Huge price swings, incredible revaluation events, and, eventually, an incredible upside rally will start again.

I’ve been trading since 1997 and I’ve lived through numerous market events. The one thing I teach my members is that risk is always a big part of trading and that’s why I structure all of my research and trading signals around “finding profits while reducing overall risks”. Sure, there are fast profits to be made in these wild market swings, but those types of trades are extremely risky for most people – and I don’t know of anyone that wants to risk 50 or 60% of their assets on a few wild trades.

I’m offering you the chance to learn to profit, as I do with my own money, from market trends that I hand-pick for my own trading. These are not wild, crazy trades – these are simple, effective, and slower types of trades that consistently build wealth. I issue about 4 to 8+ trades a month for my members and adjust trade allocation based on my proprietary allocation algo – the objective is to gain profits while managing overall risks.

You don’t have to spend days or weeks trying to learn my system. You don’t have to try to learn to make these decisions on your own or follow the markets 24/7 – I do that for you. All you have to do is follow my research and trading signals and start benefiting from my research and trades. My new mobile app makes it simple – download the app, sign in and everything is delivered to your phone, tablet, or desktop.

I offer membership services for active traders, long term investors, and wealth/asset managers. Each of these services is driven by my own experience and my proprietary trading systems and modeling systems. I have a small team of dedicated researchers and developers that do nothing but research and find trading signals for my members. Our objective is to help you protect and grow your wealth.

Please take a moment to visit The Technical Traders to learn more. I can’t say it any better than this… I want to help you create success while helping you protect and preserve your wealth – it’s that simple.

Chris Vermeulen
Chief Market Strategist
Founder of the Technical Traders