May crude oil closed up $2.65 at $52.03 a barrel today. Prices closed nearer the session high again today. The key "outside markets" were mixed for crude during the day, as the U.S. dollar was stronger and equities prices were also stronger. Bulls and bears are on a level near-term technical playing field amid choppy trading conditions.

The U.S. stock indexes closed solidly higher today as the indexes closed at bullish weekly high closes and hit multi-week highs. The bulls today did gain fresh upside near term technical momentum. There are now early clues that major market lows are in place.

The June U.S. dollar index closed up 33 points at 86.04 today. Prices closed nearer the session high today and closed at a bullish weekly high close. Bulls have regained the slight near-term technical advantage.

Oil Chart Signals A Bounce Needed For Rally, Oil Jumps Up More Than $2 Dollars

"Oil Rises More Than $2 as Equity Gains Signal Demand May Climb"
Crude oil rose more than $2 a barrel as equities gained, signaling that some investors expect economies to stabilize, bolstering energy demand. Oil climbed as much as 6.2 percent after stocks increased on better than estimated earnings at Wells Fargo & Co. and speculation banks will pass government stress tests....Complete Story

"Alaska Oil Regulators Deny Exxon Petition"
The state of Alaska has denied a petition from Exxon Mobil seeking permission from regulators to form a new oil and gas unit at Point Thomson. Exxon this week asked the Alaska Oil and Gas Conservation Commission to unite the leases of different companies within the Point Thomson oil and gas field....Complete Story

"Oil Chart Signals a Bounce Needed for Rally: Technical Analysis"
Crude oil futures for May delivery are testing key support levels and an “immediate bounce” is needed for the contract to return to recent highs, according to technical analysis by Newedge Group. If prices break through support at the $47.50 to $48, a barrel level, the contract....Complete Story

"Mexico, U.S. Energy Ministers Meet on Cross-Border Oil Fields"
Mexican Secretary of Energy Georgina Kessel Martinez and her U.S. counterpart Steven Chu met on cross-border oil fields and renewable energy, said a statement of the Mexican government. The two ministers met during Kessel's visit to the United States.
The statement said that Kessel....Complete Story

Crude Oil Enjoys The Equities Rally, Still Below 20 Day Moving Average

May crude oil was higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates some of this week's decline but remains below the 20 day moving average crossing at 50.85.

Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term.

Closes below last Wednesday's low crossing at 47.26 would confirm that a short term top has been posted.

If May renews last week's rally, March's high crossing at 54.66 then January's high crossing at 58.31 are the next upside targets.

First resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 50.85.
Second resistance is last Friday's high crossing at 53.90.

First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 47.37.
Second support is last Wednesday's low crossing at 47.26.

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The June Dollar was lower overnight as it consolidates some of this week's rally. Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

If June extends this week's rally, last week's high crossing at 86.61 is the next upside target. Closes below Monday's low would open the door for a possible test of March's low crossing at 83.15.

First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at 86.13.
Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 86.61.

First support is Monday's low crossing at 84.10.
Second support is March's low crossing at 83.14.

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The June S&P 500 index was higher overnight as it extends Wednesday's upside reversal. However, stochastics and the RSI are overbought, diverging and remain bearish signaling that a short term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 802.59 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted.

If June extends the rally off March's low, February's high crossing at 867.50 is the next upside target.

First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 847.90.
Second resistance is February's high crossing at 867.50.

First support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 802.59.
Second support is last week's low crossing at 775.70.

The June S&P 500 Index was up 5.80 points. at 828.40 as of 6:00 AM CST. Overnight action sets the stage for a higher opening by the March S&P 500 index when the day session begins later this morning.

Crude Oil Closes Higher On Short Covering and Rally In Stocks

May crude oil closed higher due to short covering on Wednesday as it consolidates some of this week's decline. The mid range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Thursday.

Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are
possible near term. Closes below last Wednesday's low crossing at 47.26 would confirm that a short term top has been posted.

If May renews last week's rally, March's high crossing at 54.66 is the next upside target.

First resistance is last Friday's high crossing at 53.90.
Second resistance is March's high crossing at 54.66.

First support is today's low crossing at 47.37.
Second support is last Wednesday's low crossing at 47.26.

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The June Dollar closed higher on Wednesday and above the 20 day moving average crossing at 85.53 signaling that a short term low has been posted. The mid range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Thursday.

Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. Multiple closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 85.53 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted.

If June resumes last week's decline, March's low crossing at 83.14 is the next downside target.

First resistance is today's high crossing at 86.13.
Second resistance is last Monday's high crossing at 86.61.

First support is Monday's low crossing at 84.10.
Second support is March's low crossing at 83.14.

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The June S&P 500 index closed higher on Wednesday and above the 10 day moving average crossing at 817.04 as it consolidated some of Tuesday's decline. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday.

Stochastics and the RSI are overbought, diverging and are turning bearish hinting that a short term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 798.30 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted.

If June renews the rally off March's low, the reaction high crossing at 867.50 is the next upside target.

First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 847.90.
Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 867.50.

First support is today's low crossing at 802.60.
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 798.30.

National Oil Well Varco Continues Shopping Spree, Crude Oil Lower After Mid Day Rally

"Louisiana Reps Urge Salazar to Authorize More Offshore Drilling"
Louisiana representatives encouraged U.S. Interior Secretary Ken Salazar to authorize more offshore drilling for oil and gas at a regional meeting held in New Orleans Wednesday. The representatives asked Salazar not to forget the importance of the oil and gas industry in the U.S. economy as a source of jobs and tax dollars....Complete Story

"National Oilwell Varco Snaps Up 2 European Service Companies"
National Oilwell Varco, Inc. has acquired ASEP Group Holding B.V. and Anson Limited.
ASEP, based in the Netherlands, develops and manufactures well service equipment, including wireline units, cranes, coiled tubing equipment, pressure control products, and automation products....Complete Story

"Energy Prices May Rise on `Slingshot' Effect After Credit Chills Drilling"
The credit crunch will keep U.S. oil and gas producers from ramping up exploration they do through drillers such as Nabors Industries Ltd., setting the stage for shortages and surging prices when demand recovers....Complete Story

"Aventine, U.S. Ethanol Producer, Files for Bankruptcy After Reporting Loss" Aventine Renewable Energy Holdings Inc., a U.S. ethanol producer that counts a unit of Citigroup Inc. among its biggest investors, sought bankruptcy protection from creditors after reporting a fourth-quarter net loss of $36.9 million on March 16....Complete Story

Crude Supplies Grow Less Than Expected

"Crude Supplies Grow Less Than Expected"
Oil prices rose Wednesday as stocks opened higher, and after a government report showed supplies of crude increased less than expected. In its weekly inventory report, the Energy Information Administration said crude stocks increased by 1.7 million barrels in the week ended April 3. Analysts expected an increase of 2.3 million barrels of crude oil, according to a consensus estimate of industry analysts....Complete Story

Crude Oil Extends Tuesday's Decline In Overnight Trading

May crude oil was lower overnight as it extends Tuesday's decline below the 20 day moving average crossing at 50.63.

Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term.

Closes below last Wednesday's low crossing at 47.26 would confirm that a short term top has been posted.

If May renews last week's rally, March's high crossing at 54.66 then January's high crossing at 58.31 are the next upside targets.

Wednesday's pivot point, our line in the sand is 49.79

First resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 50.63
Second resistance is last Friday's high crossing at 53.90

First support is the overnight low crossing at 47.37
Second support is last Wednesday's low crossing at 47.26

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10:30 AM ET. Apr 3...US Energy Dept Oil Inventories

.....................Crude Oil Stocks (previous 359.4M)

.....................Crude Oil Stocks (Net Change) (previous +2.84M)

.....................Gasoline Stocks (previous 216.79M)

.....................Gasoline Stocks (Net Change) (previous +2.22M)

.....................Distillate Stocks (previous 144.1M)

.....................Distillate Stocks (Net Change) (previous +221K)

.....................Refinery Usage (previous 81.7%)


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The June Dollar was higher due to short covering overnight as it extends Monday's rally and is trading above resistance marked by the 20 day moving average crossing at 85.53.

Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 85.53 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted and would confirm that the c-wave of an a-b-c correction off March's low is underway.

If June renews the decline off last week's high, March's low crossing at 83.15 is the next downside target.

First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 86.13.
Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 86.61.

First support is Monday's low crossing at 84.10.
Second support is March's low crossing at 83.14.

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The June S&P 500 index was lower overnight and trading below initial support marked by the 10 day moving average crossing at 816.17 signaling that a short term top has been posted.

Stochastics and the RSI are overbought, diverging and are turning bearish signaling that a short term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 797.93 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted.

If June extends the rally off March's low, February's high crossing at 867.50 is the next upside target.

First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 847.90.
Second resistance is February's high crossing at 867.50.

First support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 797.93.
Second support is last week's low crossing at 775.70.

The June S&P 500 Index was down 4.40 points. at 809.60 as of 5:56 AM CST. Overnight action sets the stage for a lower opening by the March S&P 500 index when the day session begins later this morning.

Crude Oil Close Lower On Tuesday, Continues Lower In After Market Trading

May crude oil closed lower on Tuesday due to profit taking as it extends Monday's decline. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday.

Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. Closes below last Wednesday's low crossing at 47.26 would confirm that a short term top has been posted.

If May renews last week's rally, March's high crossing at 54.66 is the next upside target.

First resistance is last Friday's high crossing at 53.90.
Second resistance is March's high crossing at 54.66.

Wednesday's pivot point, our line in the sand is 49.79, we will look to go short if we open below 49.79.

First support is today's low crossing at 48.89.
Second support is last Wednesday's low crossing at 47.26.

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The June Dollar closed higher on Tuesday as it extends Monday's rally. Today's close above the 10 day moving average crossing at 85.28 tempers the near term bearish outlook. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday.

Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 85.66 would confirm that a short term low has been posted.

If June resumes last week's decline, March's low crossing at 83.14 is the next downside target.

First resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 85.66.
Second resistance is last Monday's high crossing at 86.61.

First support is Monday's low crossing at 84.10.
Second support is March's low crossing at 83.14.

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The June S&P 500 index closed lower on Tuesday and below the 10 day moving average crossing at 815.14 signaling that a short term top has been posted. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday.

Stochastics and the RSI are overbought, diverging and are turning neutral to bearish hinting that a short term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 793.37 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted.

If June extends the rally off March's low, the reaction high crossing at 867.50 is the next upside target.

First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 847.90.
Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 867.50.

First support is today's low crossing at 812.00.
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 793.37.

Oil Industry Stock Market Winners and Losers

Winners

Atlas Pipeline Partners......7.78%
Cimarex Energy..............5.06%
Edge Petroleum..............4.55%
Parallel Petroleum...........3.75%
Tesoro Petroleum............3.46%

Losers

Meridian Resource..........-8.00%
ENSCO International........-7.55%
Parker Drilling..............-7.08%
McMoRan Exploration.......-6.43%
Dawson Geophysical........-5.84%

Change based on the last 2 days of trading

Crude Oil Could Fall On Hurricane Season Estimates

"Forecasters See Lower Average for 2009 Atlantic Hurricane Season"
According to forecasters at Colorado State University, the 2009 Atlantic hurricane season is expected to show average storm activity from June 1 to Nov. 30. The forecasters cite an average of 12 storms for the active season, six of which will transform into hurricanes with two set to become intense hurricanes, which are defined by sustained winds of 111 miles per hour or more....Complete Story