Crude Oil Closes Lower, Pressured By Dollar and Stocks

June crude oil closed down $4.02 at $48.45 a barrel today. Prices closed near the session low today, hit a fresh five week low and saw a bearish downside "breakout" from a wedge pattern on the daily chart. Crude oil bears have regained the near term technical advantage. A big drop in the stock market today and a stronger U.S. dollar helped to pressure crude oil.

The June U.S. dollar index closed up 71 points at 87.00 today. Prices closed near the session high and hit a fresh four week high today. Bulls have regained the near term technical advantage.

The U.S. stock indexes closed solidly lower today and near their session lows. The bulls faded today and need to show fresh power soon, or else the recent uptrends on the daily charts will begin to "roll over" and start to produce bearish chart signals.

A heavy slate of corporate earnings reports are due out this week and traders will examine them very closely. It's likely that most of those reports will encourage the stock index bears.

Haliburton Profits Tumble, Oil Falls the Most in Seven Weeks

"Oil Falls the Most in Seven Weeks as Dollar Gains, Stocks Drop"
Oil fell the most in seven weeks as a stronger dollar reduced the appeal of commodities and on speculation supplies will rise as the recession reduces demand.

Oil dropped as the dollar rose to a one-month high versus the euro, making crude less attractive as a currency and inflation hedge. An Energy Department report last week showed U.S. crude oil inventories climbed to the highest level since September 1990 as demand dropped.

“The strength of the dollar has prompted a selling in the oil market,” said Gene McGillian, an analyst and broker at Tradition Energy in Stamford, Connecticut. “We repeatedly shift from concentrating on the fundamentals of high inventories and low demand on one hand and hopes of recovery later this year. The fundamental picture has reasserted itself today.”....Complete Story

"Halliburton 1Q Profit Tumbles, Cuts Jobs"
Halliburton Co. kicked off the oil sector's first-quarter earnings period on a dour-but-not-unexpected note Monday, reporting net income that tumbled 35 percent from a year ago and offering a poor outlook. It also said it cut more than 2,000 jobs in the first three months of the year.

The company, which has corporate headquarters in Houston and Dubai, was hurt as oil and natural gas producers, stung by low prices, cut back on exploration and drilling, particularly in North America. That's bad news for service companies like Halliburton, which help producers with drilling, reservoir management and other oilfield work.

A major barometer of oil-patch activity is the U.S. rig count, which has fallen more than 50 percent since the end of August. Analysts say the count is likely to fall even more — perhaps another 20 to 30 percent — as producers continue to scale back spending amid bloated oil and gas supplies and weak demand....Complete Story


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Crude Oil Opens Down, Lower Prices Possible Near Term

May crude oil was sharply lower overnight and appears to be breaking out to the downside of this spring's symmetrical triangle formation.

Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term.

Closes below the reaction low crossing at 47.26 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted.

Closes above March's high crossing at 54.66 are needed to confirm an upside breakout of the current consolidation pattern.

The pivot point for Monday is 50.44

First resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 50.89.
Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 52.45.

First support is the reaction low crossing at 47.37.
Second support is the reaction low crossing at 47.26.

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Overnight action sets the stage for a lower opening by the June S&P 500 index when the day session begins later this morning.

The June S&P 500 index was lower due to profit taking overnight as it consolidates some of its recent gains. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are still possible near term.

If June extends the rally off March's low, January's high crossing at 937.00 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 829.14 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted.

The pivot point, our line in the sand, for Monday is 864.25

First resistance is last Friday's high crossing at 867.00.
Second resistance is January's high crossing at 937.00.

First support is last Wednesday's low crossing at 831.70.
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 829.14.

The June S&P 500 Index was down 11.40 points. at 855.40 as of 5:45 AM CST.

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The June Dollar was higher overnight and is trading above the reaction high crossing at 86.62 thereby renewing the rally off March's low. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

Closes below last Monday's low crossing at 84.72 would confirm that a short term top has been posted.

First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 86.85.
Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 88.26.

First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 85.62.
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 85.33.

Crude Oil Weekly Pivot Points

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Chinese Refining Price Increases, California Says No To New Drilling

"Crude Oil Rises as Chinese Refineries Increase Processing Rates"
Crude oil rose after a report showed that Chinese refineries bolstered processing rates for the first time in five months, signaling the government’s economic stimulus measures improved fuel demand. China refined 29.4 million metric tons of crude, or about 6.92 million barrels a day, in March, the China Mainland Marketing Research Co. said in a statement today. That’s up 0.7 percent from a year earlier. U.S. stocks drifted between gains and losses....Complete Story

"California Officials Say No to New Offshore Drilling"
California officials expressed unanimous opposition Thursday to new offshore oil and gas drilling in a meeting U.S. Interior Secretary Ken Salazar held to gauge public sentiment on the issue. Opening the California coast to drilling for oil and natural gas would be an environmental and economic disaster for the state, said Sen. Barbara Boxer, D-Calif. The most populous U.S. state relies on tourism, recreation and other coastal industries....Complete Story

"Norway Oil Industry Seen At Risk If New Areas Not Opened"
Norway's oil and gas production and industry risk going into serious decline by the mid-2020s if a ban on exploration in unexplored offshore areas in the North isn't lifted quickly, oil chiefs say. Combined oil and gas production from Norway, the second-biggest gas exporter to Europe after Russia, and the world's fifth-largest oil exporter, is at a peak that operators hope to sustain until at least 2015, while stemming the decline beyond that....Complete Story


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Bears Seem To Have Term Advantage On Crude Oil

May crude oil was slightly lower overnight as it extends this month's trading range. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term.

Closes below the reaction low crossing at 47.26 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted. Closes above March's high crossing at 54.66 are needed to confirm an upside breakout of the current consolidation pattern.

First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 53.90.
Second resistance is March's high crossing at 54.66.

First support is last Wednesday's low crossing at 47.37.
Second support is the reaction low crossing at 47.26.

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The June S&P 500 index was steady to slightly lower due to profit taking overnight as it consolidates some of its recent gains. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are still possible near term.

If June extends the rally off March's low, February's high crossing at 867.50 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 824.30 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted.

Friday's pivot point, the line in the sand, is 856.25

First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at 867.00.
Second resistance is January's high crossing at 937.00.

First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 831.70.
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 824.30.

The June S&P 500 Index was down 0.10 points. at 861.40 as of 5:58 AM CST. Overnight action sets the stage for a steady to lower opening by the June S&P 500 index when the day session begins later this morning.

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The June Dollar was higher overnight as it extends the rebound off Monday's low. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. Closes above last Thursday's high crossing at 86.24 would open the door for additional short covering gains during April.

If June renews Monday's decline, last Monday's low crossing at 84.10 is the next downside target. Closes below last Monday's low would open the door for a possible test of March's low crossing at 83.15.

First resistance is last Thursday's high crossing at 86.24.
Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 86.61.

First support is last Monday's low crossing at 84.10.
Second support is March's low crossing at 83.14.


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Crude Oil Closes Higher On Choppy Trading

May crude oil closed up $0.69 at $49.94 a barrel today. Prices closed near mid range today in quieter trading. Trading has turned choppy. A potentially bearish descending triangle pattern is in place on the daily bar chart. Crude oil bulls and bears are on a level near term technical playing field.

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The June U.S. dollar index closed up 10 points at 85.46 today. Prices closed near mid range today. Bulls and bears are on a level near term technical playing field. Bulls' next upside price objective is to close prices above solid technical resistance at 86.61.

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The June S&P 500 futures index closed up 13.20 at 861.70. Prices closed near the session high today and hit a fresh nine week high. The June Dow futures closed up 80 points at 8,060. Prices closed near the session high and hit a fresh nine week high today.


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Crude Rises On Jobless Claims, Petrobras Seeks Additional Rigs

"Crude Oil Rises After Unexpected Decline in U.S. Jobless Claims"
Crude oil rose after the number of U.S. workers claiming jobless benefits unexpectedly fell last week, indicating the pace of economic decline may be slowing. Oil climbed as much as 2.5 percent after the Labor Department reported that claims decreased by 53,000 to 610,000 in the week ended April 11, the fewest since January. China, the biggest oil consumer after the U.S., grew 6.1 percent during the first quarter, the slowest pace in almost 10 years....Complete Story

"Petrobras Seeks New Rigs, Marches On With Expansion Plan"
Petrobras will start seeking bids for new rigs in the next couple of months as it marches on with its ambitious five-year investment plan. The Brazilian state energy giant in January announced it planned to invest $174.4 billion in 2009-13, including $28.6 billion this year -- an increase from $23 billion in 2008, which is unusual as global oil majors including U.S. firms Chevron Corp. and ConocoPhillips are cutting back on investment....Complete Story

"Total, China In Venezuela Oil Talks"
France's Total, China National Petroleum Corp and Petroleos de Venezuela are in advanced talks about a deal to produce and refine Venezuelan oil to send to China, the Wall Street Journal reported. Senior officials from all three groups plan to meet in Caracas next month to discuss a possible multi billion dollar accord, the paper said on Wednesday, citing people close to the talks.
The 20 year venture could see 200,000 barrels of oil a day shipped to China possibly starting in 2013....Complete Story


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Crude Higher On Short Covering, Signals Turn Bearish

May crude oil was higher overnight due to short covering as it consolidates some of this week's decline. However, stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 47.26 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted.

Closes above March's high crossing at 54.66 are needed to confirm an upside breakout of the current consolidation pattern.

First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 53.90.
Second resistance is March's high crossing at 54.66.

First support is last Wednesday's low crossing at 47.37.
Second support is the reaction low crossing at 47.26.

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The June S&P 500 index was steady to slightly lower due to profit taking overnight as it consolidates some of its recent gains. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish hinting that a short term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 819.51 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted.

If June extends the rally off March's low, February's high crossing at 867.50 is the next upside target.

Thursday's pivot point, our line in the sand is 844.

First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 861.30.
Second resistance is February's high crossing at 867.50.

First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 831.70.
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 819.51.

The June S&P 500 Index was down 1.10 points. at 847.40 as of 6:00 AM CST. Overnight action sets the stage for a steady to lower opening by the June S&P 500 index when the day session begins later this morning.

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The June Dollar was higher overnight due to short covering as it consolidates some of Monday's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term.

If June extends this week's decline, last Monday's low crossing at 84.10 is the next downside target. Closes below last Monday's low would open the door for a possible test of March's low crossing at 83.15. Closes above last Thursday's high crossing at 86.24 would open the door for additional short covering gains during April.

First resistance is last Thursday's high crossing at 86.24.
Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 86.61.

First support is last Monday's low crossing at 84.10.
Second support is March's low crossing at 83.14.

Crude Oil Closes Near The Session Lows Again

May crude oil closed up $0.12 at $49.53 a barrel today. Prices closed nearer the session low again today. Trading has turned choppy. A bearish weekly DOE storage report did limit gains in crude and kept prices under pressure most of the day. Crude oil bulls and bears are still on a level near term technical playing field.

The U.S. stock indexes closed mixed but nearer their session highs today following more weak U.S. economic data. However, there were some minor positives in the data that gave stock traders some confidence the worst of the economic crisis is past. Stock index futures prices are still in uptrends from the March lows.

The June U.S. dollar index closed up 32 points at 85.25 today. Prices closed near mid range today. Bulls and bears are back on a level near term technical playing field. Bulls' next upside price objective is to close prices above solid technical resistance at 86.61.


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