Crude Oil Headed Lower On Monday, Higher Prices Still Possible Near Term

Crude oil is set to pull back on Monday as general market sediment has us going lower today. Can crude oil continue a bullish trend as the indexes rollover? Most likely the answer is yes.

The U.S. Dollar is still our best indicator and with the dollar breaking the daily 200 EMA we expect the dollar to go lower. Also, the commercials are holding their smallest short position's in the months, it appears the overall attitude on crude oil remains bullish.

At this point most professional traders will be buying the pullbacks, we'll be doing the same. For day traders watch the weekly pivot of 56.65, very close to our 1st support of 56.94, as traders looking to go long may pile in at this level.

The pivot point for Monday, our line in the sand is 57.85

1st resistance is 59.54
2nd resistance is 60.45
3rd resistance is 62.14

1st support is 56.94
2nd support is 55.25
3rd support is 54.34

The weekly pivot point is 56.65


Today’s Stock Market Club Trading Triangles



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"Exxon Begins Drilling at Point Thomson"

Exxon Mobil says it has begun drilling at Alaska's Point Thomson oil and gas field.
Patrick McGinn, a company spokesman, says drilling operations were launched Friday.

In February, Exxon returned eight of its Point Thomson leases that were part of 13 added to the field in 2002. Exxon had promised to drill wells and begin producing oil within four years, but no drilling occurred.

The state has been fighting with the Irving, Texas based oil giant and other lease holders over the lack of progress there.

Alaska officials have tried to cancel the leases, but in January it did allow Exxon to drill on two leases after the company said it would start production within five years.



How do you feel about big oil being pressured to use their leases or risk losing them? Feel free to leave a comment, our readers want to know what you think!


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USO and Crude Oil On The Move

We don’t often produce videos on ETFs, but we find USO to be very interesting right now. This ETF, United States Oil, closely tracks the price of crude oil in New York.

This market appears to have completed a formation that could have great profit opportunities in the near term.

In our new video, we explain in detail a strategy that we are using to approach this market. As always, our videos are registration free and come with our compliments.

Please feel free to comment on our blog about your experiences and thoughts on USO and the crude oil market.



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Crude Oil Closes Higher On Improved Demand Outlook, Better Than Expected Employment Numbers

June crude oil closed higher on Friday as it extends the rally off April's low. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

If June extends the rally, January's high crossing at 59.66 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 52.20 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted.

First resistance is today's high crossing at 58.67.
Second resistance is January's high crossing at 59.66.

First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 53.50.
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 52.20.

Today’s Stock Market Club Trading Triangles

The June Dollar closed sharply lower on Friday and below March's low crossing at 83.14. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term.

If June extends the decline, the 87% retracement level of the December-March rally crossing at 81.49 is the next downside target. Multiple closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 85.13 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted.

First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 84.47.
Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 85.13.

First support is today's low crossing at 82.76.
Second support is the 87% retracement level crossing at 81.49.

Today’s Stock Market Club Trading Triangles

The June S&P 500 index closed higher on Friday as it extends this spring's rally. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

If June extends the rally off March's low, January's high crossing at 937.00 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 869.08 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted.

First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at 929.00.
Second resistance is January's high crossing at 937.00.

First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 887.79.
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 869.08.


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Oil Rises On Positive Unemployment Numbers, Venezuela Seizes 60 Oilfield Service Company Assets

"Oil Rises to Highest Since November as U.S. Job Losses Slow"
Crude oil rose to the highest level since November after a report showed that the U.S. cut fewer jobs than forecast in April, a signal that the worst of the recession has passed and fuel demand may rebound. Oil prices gained 10 percent this week as reports on U.S. home sales and manufacturing in China boosted optimism about the economy and after U.S. crude oil supplies climbed less than forecast. Payrolls fell by 539,000, after a 699,000 loss in March.....Complete Story

"Crude Settles at Fresh Six Month High"
Crude oil futures prices jumped Friday to a fresh six-month high after the latest U.S. employment data showed the economic crisis may be bottoming out. Nymex light sweet crude oil for June delivery settled up $1.92 a barrel, or 3.4%, at $58.63, the highest level since Nov. 11. Crude futures gained in seven of the past eight sessions, rising 17.4%, or $8.71, since April 28. ICE June North Sea Brent crude settled up 2.96%, or $1.67, at $58.14 a barrel.....Complete Story

"Venezuela Seizes 60 Oilfield Service Company Assets"
Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez seized assets from 60 oilfield services companies including Oklahoma-based Williams Cos., using a law the national assembly passed yesterday. Employees at state oil company Petroleos de Venezuela SA worked through the night to take over operations from companies that provided services such as water and gas compression and maritime support, Chavez said. Venezuela’s benchmark government bonds fell the most in 2 1/2 months. “Today, the private services companies disappear.....Complete Story


Today’s Stock Market Club Trading Triangles

Higher Prices For Crude Oil Possible Near Term

June crude oil was higher overnight as it extends this week's rally above March's high crossing at 56.10. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

If June extends last week's rally, January's high crossing at 59.66 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 52.17 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted.

Friday's pivot point, our line in the sand is 56.84

First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at 58.57.
Second resistance is January's high crossing at 59.66.

First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 53.44.
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 52.17.

Today’s Stock Market Club Trading Triangles

The June Dollar was lower overnight as it extends this week's trading range. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term.

If June extends the decline off April's high, March's low crossing at 83.14 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 85.19 would temper the near term bearish outlook in the market.

First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 84.58.
Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 85.19.

First support is Thursday's low crossing at 83.55.
Second support is March's low crossing at 83.14.

Today’s Stock Market Club Trading Triangles


The June S&P 500 index was higher overnight due to short covering as it consolidates some of Thursday's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

If June extends the rally off March's low, January's high crossing at 937.00 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 868.82 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted.

Friday's pivot point is 911.5

First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at 925.75
Second resistance is January's high crossing at 943.25

First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 894
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 880

Friday sets up as a possible sideways trading day and we will trade the 906-913 range as a "battle ground" area.

The June S&P 500 Index was up 11.40 points. at 918.40 as of 6:03 AM CST. Overnight action sets the stage for a higher opening by the June S&P 500 index when the day session begins later this morning.

Check out our new video "Do You Believe The Stress Test"

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Crude Oil Closes Higher On Thursday, Well Off Session Highs

June crude oil closed higher on Thursday but well off session highs due to some profit taking. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

If June extends the rally, January's high crossing at 59.66 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 52.00 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted.

First resistance is today's high crossing at 58.57.
Second resistance is January's high crossing at 59.66.

First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 52.79.
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 52.00.

Today’s Stock Market Club Trading Triangles

The June Dollar closed higher on Thursday as it extends this week's trading range. The mid range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term.

If June extends the decline, March's low crossing at 83.14 is the next downside target. Multiple closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 85.29 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted.

First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 84.67.
Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 85.29.

First support is today's low crossing at 83.55.
Second support is March's low crossing at 83.14.

Today’s Stock Market Club Trading Triangles

The June S&P 500 index posted a downside reversal on Thursday due to profit taking as it consolidated some of this spring's rally. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

If June extends the rally off March's low, January's high crossing at 937.00 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 865.19 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted.

First resistance is today's high crossing at 929.00.
Second resistance is January's high crossing at 937.00.

First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 881.39.
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 865.19.


Will the stress test results put crude oil back in rally mode? Let us know, please feel free to leave a comment and let our readers know!

Crude Oil Falls as Equities Decline, Oil Workers Seem To Be Kept On The Job, OPEC Unlikely To Announce New Cuts

"Crude Oil Falls as Equities Decline, Signaling Lower Demand"
Crude oil fell as declining equity markets signaled that the recession in major energy consuming countries will prevent demand from rebounding. Prices retreated from the highest level this year as a drop in telephone and technology companies snuffed out an early stock rally. The Energy Department said yesterday that U.S. crude oil supplies climbed to the highest level since 1990 as fuel consumption tumbled.

“We’re just tracking equities,” said Tim Evans, an energy analyst with Citi Futures Perspective in New York. “The recent demand data are so weak that we could have a remarkable increase in demand.....Complete Story

"Oil Workers Stay Put In a Downturn"
The recent oil boom spurred the largest expansion in offshore drilling since the 1970s. Diamond Offshore Drilling (DO) particularly cashed in on the huge demand for its 45 deepwater oil rigs that it contracts to oil companies such as ExxonMobil (XOM), Chevron (CVX) and Conoco-Phillips (COP). During the past three years, Diamond's average annual growth rate was 41%, and in 2008 it increased profits by 55%,to $1.3 billion. But when the economy took a nosedive and oil prices plummeted last year, drilling activity saw a precipitous drop, too. While Diamond is still growing, the pace has slowed: On Apr. 23 the Houston company announced a 13% revenue increase in the first quarter of 2009. In 2008, revenue had grown by nearly 30% compared to the same period the year before.....Complete Story

Today’s Stock Market Club Trading Triangles

"OPEC Unlikely to Announce New Output Cut in May, Barclays Says"
The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, supplier of about 40 percent of the world’s oil, is unlikely to announce a further output cut at its next meeting as prices “stabilize,” according to Barclays Capital. OPEC will probably keep production targets unchanged as long as crude prices remain around current levels and inventory growth continues to slow, according to Barclays’s head of commodities research, Paul Horsnell. The group meets on May 28 in Vienna.

“If they held the meeting today, there’s no reason to change” quotas, Horsnell said in a telephone interview from London. “Prices are stabilizing and starting to nudge up in the direction they want.....Complete Story



Do you think OPEC cuts have an influence on the price of oil anymore? Let's us know what you think, please feel free to leave a comment!


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Crude Oil Continues Rally, Overbought Conditions Remain

June crude oil was higher overnight and is trading above March's high crossing at 56.10 as it extends the rally off April's low. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

If June extends last week's rally, January's high crossing at 59.66 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 52.07 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted.

First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 58.05
Second resistance is January's high crossing at 59.66

First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 52.94
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 52.07

Today’s Stock Market Club Trading Triangles

The June Dollar was slightly higher overnight as it consolidates some of this week's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term.

If June extends the decline off April's high, March's low crossing at 83.14 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 85.30 would temper the near term bearish outlook in the market.

First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 84.67
Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 85.30

First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 83.62
Second support is March's low crossing at 83.14

Today’s Stock Market Club Trading Triangles

The June S&P 500 index was higher overnight as it extends this week's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. A market consolidation is way overdue at this point.

If June extends the rally off March's low, January's high crossing at 937.00 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 866.35 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted.

Thursday's pivot point, our line in the sand is 912.25

First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 926.50
Second resistance is January's high crossing at 936.25

First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 900.25
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 881.75

The June S&P 500 Index was up 6.30 points. at 923.50 as of 5:53 AM CST. Overnight action sets the stage for a higher opening by the June S&P 500 index when the day session begins later this morning.



Will this crude oil rally continue through the summer regardless of where the equity market is headed? Please let our readers know by leaving a comment!


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Crude Oil Moves Higher On Lower Than Expected Inventory Reports

June crude oil closed higher on Wednesday on lower than expected inventory numbers as it extends the rally off April's low. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

If June extends the rally, January's high crossing at 59.66 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 51.78 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted.

First resistance is today's high crossing at 56.47.
Second resistance is January's high crossing at 59.66.

First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 52.10.
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 51.78.

Today’s Stock Market Club Trading Triangles

The June Dollar closed lower on Wednesday as it extends this week's decline. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term.

If June extends the decline, March's low crossing at 83.14 is the next downside target. Multiple closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 85.38 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted.

First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 84.84.
Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 85.38.

First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 83.62.
Second support is March's low crossing at 83.14.

Today’s Stock Market Club Trading Triangles

The June S&P 500 index closed higher on Wednesday as it extends this spring's rally. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

If June extends the rally off March's low, January's high crossing at 937.00 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 861.12 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted.

First resistance is today's high crossing at 917.30.
Second resistance is January's high crossing at 937.00.

First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 875.94.
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 861.12.


Do you think this market has what it takes to continue higher? Please feel free to comment and let our readers know what you are thinking!