Crude Oil Closes Higher In The Face Of Higher Dollar

July crude oil closed higher on Wednesday as it extends this spring's rally. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

If July extends the rally off April's low, the 25% retracement level of the 2008-2009 decline crossing at 68.49 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 58.54 would confirm that a short term top has been posted.

First resistance is today's high crossing at 63.82
Second resistance is the 25% retracement level crossing at 68.49

First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 60.57
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 58.54

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The June S&P 500 index closed lower on Wednesday due to profit taking as it consolidated some of Tuesday's rally. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near term.

From a broad perspective, June needs to close above 929.00 or below 875.40 to clear up near term direction in the market.

First resistance is today's high crossing at 913.80
Second resistance is last Wednesday's high crossing at 923.20

First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 876.90
Second support is the reaction low crossing at 875.40

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The June Dollar closed higher due to short covering on Wednesday as it consolidated some of this month's decline. The mid range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that additional weakness is possible near term.

If June extends this month's decline, weekly support crossing at 78.77 is the next downside target. Multiple closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 82.46 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted.

First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 81.28
Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 82.46

First support is last Friday's low crossing at 79.90
Second support is weekly support crossing at 78.77

Oil Rises To New Six Month High, Exxon Claims Strategy Built Investor Value, Precision Sees Slow Summer

"Oil Rises to a Six Month High After Saudi Forecasts $75 a Barrel"
Oil rose above $63 a barrel for the first time in six months after Saudi Arabia’s oil minister said crude is likely to touch $75 by the end of the year. Asian demand has begun to recover and prices at $75 a barrel will be healthy for economic growth, Ali al-Naimi said today in Vienna, where OPEC will meet this week to discuss production targets. A government report tomorrow is forecast to show that U.S. gasoline supplies fell for a fifth week.....Complete Story

"ExxonMobil's Financial Strength, Strategy Build Value for Investors"
Exxon Mobil Corporation's financial strength and industry leading performance continues to provide shareholders with superior value while delivering energy to fuel economic growth and protecting the environment, the corporation said today at its Annual Meeting of Shareholders. "Despite the volatile economic times, ExxonMobil remains committed to investing in integrated solutions to the energy challenge," said Rex W. Tillerson, chairman and chief executive officer. "Our disciplined and consistent performance.....Complete Story

"Precision Drilling Chief Neveu Sees Slow Summer"
Precision Drilling Trust, Canada’s largest oil well driller, is bracing for a continuation of a slump caused by low commodity prices. “It looks like a lousy summer for drilling,” Chief Executive officer Kevin Neveu said at a conference in Toronto. “The only difference between this downturn and other downturns is customers are running through their contracts.” Precision has about 18 rigs that are idle and fully paid for under contracts, Neveu told analysts at the Raymond James Oilfield Services conference.....Complete Story

Crude Oil Sets New Six Month High

July crude oil was higher overnight as it extends this spring's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought, diverging but are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. As I write we are trading above 1st resistance at a new six month high, a 40% increase just this year.

Most professional traders will tell you that there is no reason for us to be trading crude at these levels but yet they are buying the dips every chance we get.

I am not sure it matters but traders will be watching the OPEC gathering this week where most traders expect OPEC leaders to hold production steady.

If July extends this spring's rally, the 25% retracement of the 2008-2009 decline crossing at 68.49 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 58.53 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted.

Wednesday's pivot point, our line in the sand is 61.54

First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 63.45
Second resistance is the 25% retracement level crossing at 68.49

First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 59.53
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 58.52

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The June Dollar was higher overnight due to short covering as it consolidated above the 62% retracement level of the July-March rally crossing at 79.80. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that additional weakness is possible near term.

If June extends the decline off April's high, the 62% retracement level of the aforementioned rally crossing at 79.80 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 82.46 would confirm that a short term low has been posted.

First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 81.27
Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 82.46

First support is last Friday's low crossing at 79.90
Second support is the 62% retracement level crossing at 79.80

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The June S&P 500 index was higher overnight as it extends Tuesday's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near term.

For today I believe most day traders are seeing bullish set ups easily taking us from above our pivot point to 915. Beyond that we do have an unfilled gap at 924.75 that the bulls could have in their sights if buyers step into this market.

If June extends this week's rally, last week's high crossing at 923.20 then this month's high crossing at 929.00 are the next upside targets. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 875.40 would confirm that a short term top has been posted.

Wednesday's pivot point, our line in the sand is 899

First resistance is last week's high crossing at 923.20
Second resistance is this month's high crossing at 929.00

First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 877.00
Second support is last Monday's low crossing at 875.40

The June S&P 500 Index was up 1.70 points. at 910.40 as of 6:01 AM CST. Overnight action sets the stage for a higher opening by the June S&P 500 index when the day session begins later this morning.

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Crude Oil Closes Higher, Extending This Spring's Rally

July crude oil closed higher on Tuesday as it extends this spring's rally. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

If July extends the rally off April's low, the 25% retracement level of the 2008-2009 decline crossing at 68.49 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 58.42 would confirm that a short term top has been posted.

First resistance is today's high crossing at 62.50
Second resistance is the 25% retracement level crossing at 68.49

First support is today's low crossing at 59.53
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 58.42

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

The June Dollar closed higher due to short covering on Tuesday as it consolidated some of this month's decline. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that additional weakness is possible near term.

If June extends this month's decline, weekly support crossing at 78.77 is the next downside target. Multiple closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 82.67 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted.

First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 81.51
Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 82.67

First support is last Friday's low crossing at 79.90
Second support is weekly support crossing at 78.77

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

The June S&P 500 index closed sharply higher on Tuesday and the high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near term.

From a broad perspective, June needs to close above 929.00 or below 875.40 to clear up near term direction in the market.

First resistance is today's high crossing at 910.90
Second resistance is last Wednesday's high crossing at 923.20

First support is today's low crossing at 876.90
Second support is the reaction low crossing at 875.40

Today’s Stock Market Club Trading Triangles

Oil Rises On Consumer Confidence Report, Majors Switching Strategy

"Oil Rises to Six Month High as U.S. Consumer Confidence Gains"
Crude oil rose to a six month high after a report showed that U.S. consumer confidence jumped to the highest level since September, signaling demand may rebound. Oil followed gains in the stock market after the Conference Board’s sentiment index surged to 54.9, more than forecast and the biggest increase since 2003, the New York based research group said today. Oil futures declined earlier on speculation OPEC will maintain production quotas at a meeting this week. “History shows that a jump in consumer confidence signals an economic rebound,” said Bill O’Grady, chief markets strategist at Confluence Investment.....Complete Story

"Switching Horses On Oil Strategy"
Thunder Horse turns 10 next month. BP's billion barrel oil field, discovered in 1999 in the Gulf of Mexico, is a source of pride. It also is a reminder of what ails the oil majors. Thunder Horse, which started up in 2008, will provide 42% of BP's incremental upstream production over the next three years, according to analysts at J.P. Morgan Chase. Unfortunately, it is also one of BP's few discoveries of such scale in recent memory. Neil McMahon of Sanford C. Bernstein calculates that less than half of BP's additions to reserves over the past five years have come through its exploration efforts.....Complete Story

"Hottest Oil Options Show 18% Drop as Demand Falls"
After oil passed $60 a barrel for the first time in six months, the New York Mercantile Exchange’s fastest growing options trade in July is for a 18 percent drop.The number of options to sell oil at $50 a barrel for July settlement rose 22 percent last week to 24,948. Traders expect prices to fall because U.S. crude inventories are 1.8 percent below the highest level in two decades, the International Energy Agency says demand is falling the most since 1981, and there’s enough unsold crude stored in offshore tankers to supply the U.S. for a week. Oil traded as high as $62.16 today.....Complete Story

Crude Oil Struggles To Continue It's Rally

July crude oil was lower overnight due to profit taking as it consolidates some of this spring's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought, diverging and are turning bearish signaling that a short term top is in or is near.

It seems that most day traders are looking for any excuse to buy the dips and continue going long this market. But with commercials increasing their short position's at a sharp pace the crude oil rally may not be sustainable.

We will continue to watch the SP 500 as it struggles to stay above key trading levels [876-880] and the U.S. Dollar as it appears to be responding to geo-political events. Both are the biggest threats to crude oil bulls at this point.

At this point it looks like natural gas will test it's lows of 3.25 and will continue to try to drag crude oil down with it.

Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 58.29 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted. If crude oil could extend this spring's rally, the 25% retracement of the 2008-2009 decline crossing at 68.49 is the next upside target.

Tuesday's pivot point, our line in the sand is 61.42

1st resistance is 61.95
2nd resistance is 62.70
3rd resistance is 63.23

1st support is 60.67
2nd support is 60.14
3rd support is 59.39

The weekly pivot is 60.23

==================================================================================

The June Dollar was higher overnight due to short covering as it consolidated above the 62% retracement level of the July-March rally crossing at 79.80. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that additional weakness is possible near term.

If June extends the decline off April's high, the 62% retracement level of the aforementioned rally crossing at 79.80 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 82.70 would confirm that a short term low has been posted.

First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 81.56
Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 82.70

First support is last Friday's low crossing at 79.90
Second support is the 62% retracement level crossing at 79.80

==================================================================================

The SP 500 traded lower Monday evening and it appears most traders are looking for this market to go lower. Volume is generally low on these "1st day after the holiday" days, but we could creep right through the critical levels, 874-880. The U.S. Dollar looks to be in charge as it is reacting to news out of North Korea.

Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 875.40 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. If traders take this market through the 874 support level there is little resistance keeping us from trading the 820 area.

Tuesday's pivot point, our line in the sand is 888

1st resistance is 893.50
2nd resistance is 902

1st support is 880
2nd support is 874

The weekly pivot point is 894.25

1st weekly resistance is 912.25
1st weekly support is 865.50

The June S&P 500 Index was down 7.60 points. at 877.30 as of 5:57 AM CST. Overnight action sets the stage for a lower opening by the June S&P 500 index when the day session begins later this morning.

Oil Above $50 Saves Gulf States, Crude Oil Declines on Speculation Rally May Be Unsustainable

"Oil Above $50 Saves Gulf States During Crisis"
While their biggest customers may continue to wallow in recession into 2010, the oil producing nations of the Persian Gulf are again luring foreign investment and looking for places to park their own wealth. Crude prices that have stabilized above $50 a barrel mean the Middle East’s oil rich economies are likely to pull out of the global financial crisis sooner than the rest of the world. Saudi Arabia, the largest Arab economy and the world’s biggest oil exporter, is attracting renewed interest from investors including leveraged-buyout firm KKR & Co. Qatar and Abu Dhabi have returned to international capital markets.....Complete Story


"PetroChina To Buy 45.5 Per Cent Stake in SPC For $1 Billion"
PetroChina, the world's second most valuable oil and gas company after Exxon Mobil Corp yesterday said it was buying a 45.5-per cent stake in oil refiner Singapore Petroleum Company (SPC) for S$1.47 billion ($1.02 billion). The agreement was signed between PetroChina's indirectly wholly owned subsidiary, PetroChina International (Singapore) Pte Ltd, and Keppel Oil and Gas Services Pte Ltd, a wholly owned subsidiary of Singapore based Keppel Corporation Limited, which is part owned by Singapore investment company Temasek Holdings Pte. Ltd.....Complete Story

"Crude Oil Declines on Speculation Rally May Be Unsustainable"
Crude oil futures fell, extending their decline on concern that this year’s 37 percent rally is unsustainable because of sluggish demand brought on by the recession and a stronger dollar. The U.S. currency rose against the euro after North Korea said it conducted “successful” nuclear weapons test today, spurring demand for the relative safety of the dollar and reducing the attractiveness of commodities as an inflation hedge. “Oil’s rally above $60 a barrel was helped by positive equity markets and a weaker dollar, while the supply-demand balance provides a very different picture.....Complete Story

Crude Oil Closes Higher On Friday, Sets The Stage For Higher Open On Tuesday

July crude oil closed higher on Friday and the high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

If July extends the rally off April's low, the reaction high crossing at 61.33 is the next upside target. Closes below the 25% retracement level of the 2008-2009 decline crossing at 68.49 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted.

First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 62.26
Second resistance is the 25% retracement level crossing at 68.49

First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 59.88
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 57.37

Today’s Stock Market Club Trading Triangles

The June Dollar closed lower on Friday and below December's low crossing at 80.20. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that additional weakness is possible near term.

If June extends this month's decline, weekly support crossing at 78.77 is the next downside target. Multiple closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 83.22 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted.

First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 81.99
Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 83.22

First support is today's low crossing at 79.90
Second support is weekly support crossing at 78.77

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The June S&P 500 index closed lower on Friday as it extended Thursday's decline. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term.

If June extends this week's decline, the 25% retracement level of this spring's rally crossing at 862.80 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10 day moving average crossing at 896.88 would temper the near term bearish outlook in the market.

First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 896.88
Second resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 923.20

First support is Thursday's low crossing at 878.00
Second support is the reaction low crossing at 875.40

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Crude Oil Rises As Dollar Continues To Show Weakness

"Crude Oil Rises as Dollar Drops Against Euro, Equities Gain"
Crude oil rose as the dollar fell to a four month low against the euro and the U.S. stocks increased for the first time in four days. Oil rose as much as 1.5 percent in New York after the dollar dipped against major currencies on speculation the U.S. may lose its AAA credit rating. Equities gained as unexpected profit at Sears Holdings Corp. overshadowed concern the government faces higher interest rates to finance the rescue of the financial industry......Complete Story

USO & Crude Oil On The Move Click Here

"Oil Market Turns to OPEC Advantage, But Pitfalls Abound"
Global oil markets have turned in OPEC's favor after months of drilling a hole in the cartel's coffers, but internal wrangling in the producer group could still cap recent oil price gains. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries' deep production cuts over the past five months are beginning to whittle down a mountain of excess supply. World crude demand appears to be stabilizing and will get a top up with the start of the.....Complete Story

Is the Dollar in Trouble? Click Here

"Venezuela Oil Keeps Luring Bidders in Bets Chavez Isn’t Forever"
Chevron Corp. and Total SA are pursuing new Venezuelan oil projects after President Hugo Chavez tore up past agreements, seized assets of contractors and expelled producers that wouldn’t accept new terms. The strategy, producers and analysts say, is to tap crude reserves that Chavez touts as the world’s largest. Decisions to push ahead under a regime whose leader vows to “bury capitalism” are bets that the companies can buy enough time to outlast Chavez, said Peter Zeihan, a vice president at Stratfor, a geopolitical.....Complete Story