Artic May Hold More Undiscovered Oil

Is the Artic the new frontier for crude oil discoveries. The Heritage Foundation's Ben Lieberman talks about the possibilty of the Artic holding 40-160 billion dollars worth of crude oil beneath the polar ice caps.

Crude Oil Market Winners For This Week

~~~~Company~~~~~~~~~Friday's Close~~~~~%Gain Based on 2 Days
1. Hess Corporation.......65.65...................6.96..........
2. Marathon Oil............31.01...................6.05..........
3. Husky Energy...........33.89...................5.25..........
4. Petro-Canada...........48.49...................4.82..........
5. Suncor...................34.82...................4.75..........

Current Futures Prices Click Here

Sunday Morning Reading

"China to Raise Gasoline, Diesel Prices 6-7%" [Reuters]

"Crude Oil Caps Biggest Monthly Gain Since 1999 on Dollar Drop" [Bloomberg]

"Tullow, Heritage Face Tough Choices on Uganda Oil Development" [Rigzone]

"Oil Reserves Could Thaw U.S.- Cuba Tie" [Philly .Com]

"Iran Encourages Japanese Companies To Invest in Oil Sector" [Tehran Times]

"Zoellick Warns Stimulus ‘Sugar High’ Won’t Stem Unemployment" [Bloomberg]

"Lower Highs... Topping or bull flag?" [xtrends]

"Edison Sees Difficulties Boosting Renewable Energy" [Bloomberg]

Register for all the latest Trader's Blog postings Today. Click Here

The Price of Oil Companies vs. Crude Oil, Why The Disconnect?

There seems to be a lot of traders baffled by the disconnect between the rising price of oil as a commodity and the price action in the oil companies themselves. While the oil companies have enjoyed the recent rally in crude oil they have not had the same percentage of gains that crude oil has. I don't see it as that big of a mystery.

Institutional buyers and hedge funds have for years used the oil market and commodities in general as their own little playground. And their being hesitant to ramp up the oil companies along with the price of crude says more to me about where the likes of Goldman Sachs and various mutual funds see [plan] on this market going.

Sure, a lot of smart people see crude easily trading up to $70, but then what. There is absolutely nothing to keep us trading at that range and believe it or not the dollar will not continue straight down, nothing does. What isn't definite is the direction of the SP 500. I am personally leaning towards the bearish side, breaking below 875. And if we do crude will retrace it's steps quickly.

Keep your stops tight, don't be the only one left holding crude at $70 dollars.


Check Current Futures Prices Click Here


~

Crude Oil Extends The Spring Rally, Closes Higher

July crude oil closed higher on Friday as it extends this spring's rally. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

But crude oil bulls should not let this go to their heads. Nothing goes straight up for long and the dollar will correct, if only temporarily, and crude will correct along side of it. The word on the street seems to be 68.49 [$70] is doable near term, don't get caught being the only one holding the crude oil bag beyond that.

If July extends the rally off April's low, the 25% retracement level of the 2008-2009 decline crossing at 68.49 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 59.88 would confirm that a short term top has been posted.

First resistance is today's high crossing at 66.47
Second resistance is the 25% retracement level crossing at 68.49

First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 61.86
Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 59.88

Today’s Stock Market Club Trading Triangles

The June Dollar closed sharply lower on Friday ending a four day short covering rally and closed below the 62% retracement level of the 2008-2009 rally crossing at 79.80. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term.

If June extends this month's decline, the 75% retracement level of the 2008-2009 rally crossing at 77.55 is the next downside target. Multiple closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 81.98 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted.

First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 80.73
Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 81.98

First support is today's low crossing at 79.27
Second support is the 75% retracement level crossing at 77.5

For Current Futures Prices Click Here

The June S&P 500 index closed higher on Friday as it extended this week's rally. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

From a broad perspective, June needs to close above 929.00 or below 875.40 to clear up near term direction in the market.

First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 913.80
Second resistance is last Wednesday's high crossing at 923.20

First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 876.90
Second support is the reaction low crossing at 875.40

Futures ALERT Video Click Here

Not Mixing with Rest of Economy, Oil Floats Higher

"Crude Oil Caps Biggest Monthly Gain Since 1999 on Dollar Drop"
Crude oil rose, capping its biggest monthly gain in a decade, as the dollar weakened against the euro, bolstering the appeal of commodities. Oil climbed above $66 a barrel to a six-month high as the dollar weakened beyond $1.41 against the euro for the first time this year, making raw materials such as oil and gold an attractive alternative investment. Prices also gained as U.S., and Asian indicators pointed to a global economic recovery. “The devaluation of the dollar is leading to the revaluation of energy and commodities.....Complete Story

"Not Mixing with Rest of Economy, Oil Floats Higher"
The price of crude oil once again seems to be defying the economic forces of gravity.
There's plenty of evidence to suggest prices should be falling. In industrialized countries, storage tanks are overflowing, with enough supplies to cover 62 days of use, about 10 days more than usual. Economic weakness continues to depress world demand, which is on track to fall for the second consecutive year. And oil producing countries, while restraining output, are adding to production capacity. New Saudi Arabian wells coming on line this year will exceed the entire production capacity of Texas.....Complete Story

"Gasoline Futures May Rally as High as $2.20: Technical Analysis"
Gasoline futures could reach $2.20 this summer if the July-delivery contract clears $1.90 next week, according to technical analysis by Infinitytrading.com. The July contract, which becomes the front-month contract June 1, is poised to close above $1.902 a gallon next week, which represents the upper Bollinger band, said Fain Shaffer, president of Infinitytrading.com, a commodities brokerage in Medford, Oregon. The next objective is $2.0414, Shaffer said. Once above $2.0414, the next resistance level would be $2.1981 a gallon, the 200 period moving average on a monthly chart.....Complete Story

Continued Dollar Weakness Fuels Crude Oil Rally

July crude oil was steady to higher overnight as it extends this spring's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

At I am writing crude is trading well above 1st resistance and appears ready to easily trade higher but it's all about the dollar. The dollar is so oversold and any consolidation at all will cause a sharp pullback in crude oil. As long as the SP 500 rallies today crude oil day traders will be buying the dips.

If July extends this spring's rally, the 25% retracement of the 2008-2009 decline crossing at 68.49 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 59.87 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted.

Friday's pivot point, our line in the sand is 64.32

First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 66.17
Second resistance is the 25% retracement level crossing at 68.49

First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 61.85
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 59.87

Today’s Stock Market Club Trading Triangles

The June Dollar was sharply lower overnight ending a four-day correction and has broken out below the 62% retracement level of the July-March rally crossing at 79.80. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are neutral signaling that additional weakness is possible near term.

If June extends the decline off April's high, the 75% retracement level of the aforementioned rally crossing at 77.55 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 81.99 would confirm that a short term low has been posted.

First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 80.74
Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 81.99

First support is the overnight low crossing at 79.58
Second support is the 75% retracement level crossing at 77.55

Today’s Stock Market Club Trading Triangles

The June S&P 500 index was higher overnight as it extends this week's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If June extends this week's rally, the reaction high crossing at 923.20 then this month's high crossing at 929.00 are the next upside targets.

For Friday most day trading set ups appear to be bullish. I think most traders will be looking to buy dips anywhere near the daily pivot with a target of 913.

From a broad perspective, June needs to close above 929.00 or below 875.40 to clear up near term direction in the market.

Friday's pivot point, our line in the sand is 900

First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 913.80
Second resistance is last Wednesday's high crossing at 923.20

First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 876.90
Second support is the reaction low crossing at 875.40

The June S&P 500 Index was up 6.60 points. at 911.70 as of 6:02 AM CST. Overnight action sets the stage for a higher opening by the June S&P 500 index when the day session begins later this morning.

Hard To Believe, But Crude Oil Bulls Still Have The Near Term Advantage

July crude oil closed higher on Thursday as it extends this spring's rally. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

If July extends the rally off April's low, the 25% retracement level of the 2008-2009 decline crossing at 68.49 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 59.18 would confirm that a short term top has been posted.

First resistance is today's high crossing at 65.44
Second resistance is the 25% retracement level crossing at 68.49

First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 61.17
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 59.18

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

The June Dollar closed higher due to short covering on Thursday as it consolidated some of this month's decline. The mid range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold and are turning bullish signaling that a short term low might be in or is near. Multiple closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 82.25 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted.

If June extends this month's decline, the 62% retracement level of the 2008-2009 rally crossing at 79.80 is the next downside target.

First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 81.11
Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 82.25

First support is last Friday's low crossing at 79.90
Second support is the 62% retracement level crossing at 79.80

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

The June S&P 500 index closed higher on Thursday as it consolidated some of Wednesday's decline. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

From a broad perspective, June needs to close above 929.00 or below 875.40 to clear up near term direction in the market.

First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 913.80
Second resistance is last Wednesday's high crossing at 923.20

First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 876.90
Second support is the reaction low crossing at 875.40

Barron's Ranks Energy Companies, OPEC Holds Quotas, Tanker Cancellations

"OPEC Holds Production Quotas Steady, Predicting Demand Recovery"
OPEC decided to keep production quotas unchanged a meeting today in Vienna, banking on a recovery in oil demand toward the end of the year. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, responsible for 40 percent of global crude supply, agreed to maintain production quotas at 24.845 million barrels a day, Saudi Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi said. It’s the second time this year the 12-member group has met without revising that total. “The market is oversupplied, it’s true,” OPEC Secretary General Abdalla el-Badri told at a press conference afterwards, saying the group decided against cutting.....Complete Story

"Barron's and Fortune Rankings of Energy Companies"
Barron's newspaper recently released its 2009 Barron's 500 company rankings that had a reasonable representation of energy companies. At about the same time, Fortune magazine published its rankings of the top 500 companies. The two rankings are based on different measures of financial performance. The sharp reversal of fortunes for energy commodities and the stock market during the second half of 2008 had contributed to energy companies not ranking as highly for the latest year, but still demonstrating better.....Complete Story

"Frontline Says Third of Oil Tanker Orders at Risk"
Frontline Ltd., the world’s largest operator of supertankers, said it was the first publicly traded shipping line to cancel contracts for new oil carriers and predicted a third of all orders will be delayed or canceled. The Hamilton, Bermuda-based company said today it canceled $556 million of orders for two supertankers and four suezmaxes, out of a total of 18 contracts. Similar moves by other shipping lines may “emerge in the next few weeks,” Jens Martin Jensen, chief executive officer of its management unit, said by phone. The annulments show other owners “might be able to do something” to.....Complete Story

Crude Oil Bulls Still Have The Technical Advantage

July crude oil closed higher on Wednesday as it extends this spring's rally. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

If July extends the rally off April's low, the 25% retracement level of the 2008-2009 decline crossing at 68.49 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 58.54 would confirm that a short term top has been posted.

Thursday's pivot point, our line in the sand is 62.97

First resistance is today's high crossing at 63.82
Second resistance is the 25% retracement level crossing at 68.49

First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 60.57
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 58.54

US Energy Dept Oil Inventories 11:00 AM ET.

Crude Oil Stocks...................368.52M
Crude Oil Stocks...(Net Change)....-900K....-2.11M
Gasoline Stocks....................203.95M
Gasoline Stocks...(Net Change).....-2M......-4.34M
Distillate Stocks..................148.13M
Distillate Stocks...[Net Change)...+1.2M....+672K
Refinery Usage.....................82%......81.8%

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

The June Dollar closed higher due to short covering on Wednesday as it consolidated some of this month's decline. The mid range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that additional weakness is possible near term.

If June extends this month's decline, weekly support crossing at 78.77 is the next downside target. Multiple closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 82.46 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted.

First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 81.28
Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 82.46

First support is last Friday's low crossing at 79.90
Second support is weekly support crossing at 78.77

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

The June S&P 500 index closed lower on Wednesday due to profit taking as it consolidated some of Tuesday's rally. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near term.

From a broad perspective, June needs to close above 929.00 or below 875.40 to clear up near term direction in the market.

Thursday's pivot point for the SP 500 is 899

First resistance is today's high crossing at 913.80
Second resistance is last Wednesday's high crossing at 923.20

First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 876.90
Second support is the reaction low crossing at 875.40