The positive correlation between the price of crude and equity markets continues apace with the Dow finally breaching and holding above the 9000 level for the first time since January. This mutual admiration seems determined to ignore the weak oil market fundamentals which has seen gasoline and distillate stocks in the US increasing for a straight sixth week and with unemployment in the US still rising it is difficult to see how quickly this surplus is likely to be consumed. From a technical perspective yesterday's candle on the daily oil prices chart.....Complete Story
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Friday, July 24, 2009
Crude Oil Bulls Still Have Near Term Advantage, Natural Gas May Be Topping
Crude oil traded higher overnight as it extended Thursday's breakout above the 20 day moving average crossing at 65.10. Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.
If September extends this week's rally, the reaction high crossing at 74.25 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10 day moving average crossing at 64.19 would temper the near term friendly outlook in the market.
Crude oil's pivot point for Friday, our line in the sand is 66.20
First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 67.68
Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 74.25
First support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 65.10
Second support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 64.19
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Natural gas was higher overnight due to short covering as it consolidates some of Thursday's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish hinting that a short term top might be in or is near.
Closes below the 10 day moving average crossing at 3.711 would temper the near term friendly outlook in the market. If September extends the rally off this month's low, the reaction high crossing at 4.261 is the next upside target.
Friday's pivot point for natural gas is 3.65
First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 4.05
Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 4.26
First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 3.71
Second support is this month's low crossing at 3.37
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If September extends this week's rally, the reaction high crossing at 74.25 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10 day moving average crossing at 64.19 would temper the near term friendly outlook in the market.
Crude oil's pivot point for Friday, our line in the sand is 66.20
First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 67.68
Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 74.25
First support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 65.10
Second support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 64.19
Free Trade School Video:The #1 Predictor of Inflation or Deflation.
Natural gas was higher overnight due to short covering as it consolidates some of Thursday's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish hinting that a short term top might be in or is near.
Closes below the 10 day moving average crossing at 3.711 would temper the near term friendly outlook in the market. If September extends the rally off this month's low, the reaction high crossing at 4.261 is the next upside target.
Friday's pivot point for natural gas is 3.65
First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 4.05
Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 4.26
First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 3.71
Second support is this month's low crossing at 3.37
A Good Trading Education = a Good Trader = Good Profits….Watch INO TV
Thursday, July 23, 2009
Oil Falls From a Three Week High on Faltering Economic Recovery
Crude oil fell from a three week high after U.S. stock futures eased on weaker than expected company earnings, renewing concern the recovery from the global recession may falter. Oil has increasingly moved in tandem with the Dow Jones Industrial Average. The two are showing a correlation of 0.7 in the past month, up from 0.06 in the month to Dec. 31, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. U.S. gasoline and distillate fuel inventories climbed for a sixth week, signaling demand in the world’s largest energy user has been slow to rebound.....Complete Story
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Sharon Epperson: Where is Oil Headed on Friday
CNBC's Sharon Epperson discusses the day's activity in the commodities markets, and looks to where oil is likely headed tomorrow.
Halliburton to Drill 170 Chicontepec Wells for $169MM
Oilfield services giant Halliburton Co. has won a $169 million contract to drill 170 wells Mexico's Chicontepec region, its first major project in the area, Petroleos Mexicanos said Thursday. Pemex, as the state oil company is known, has also awarded four contracts for about 140 wells each to local drillers, expanding its pool of suppliers for the expensive project. The new contracts underscore Pemex's efforts to accelerate spending and stabilize falling oil production, down by a fifth since peaking in 2004......Complete Story
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Scaling Into the Natural Gas UNG ETF
After this morning’s marginal new recovery high at 14.00, the U.S. Natural Gas Fund ETF (NYSE: UNG) reversed to the downside in reaction to “in-line” inventory data, which pressed indices to an intraday low so far at 13.25. We initiated a 25% long position in our model portfolio at 13.32. If the UNG is unable to consolidate and lift off from the 13.30/25 area, then I will be looking for another loop down towards 13.00, where we will add another 25% long position.....Complete Article
Today’s Stock Market Club Trading Triangles
Crude Oil Bulls Gain Technical Upside Momentum
Crude oil closed up $1.82 at $67.23 a barrel today. Prices closed near the session high and hit a fresh three week high today as bulls did gain some fresh upside technical momentum amid a rallying U.S. stock market. Bulls have the near term technical advantage. A two week old uptrend is in place on the daily bar chart.
Natural gas closed down 21.3 cents at $3.727 today. Prices closed nearer the session low. The bears are still in technical control and gained fresh downside momentum today. The fact that natural gas could not rally amid a general commodity market rally today is a bearish clue.
The U.S. dollar index closed up 9 points at 78.95 today. Prices closed nearer the session high in quieter trading. Short covering in a bear market was featured. Prices hit a fresh nine month low again today. Bears still have the overall near term technical advantage.
Trade School Video "The Fibonacci Tool Fully Explained"
Natural gas closed down 21.3 cents at $3.727 today. Prices closed nearer the session low. The bears are still in technical control and gained fresh downside momentum today. The fact that natural gas could not rally amid a general commodity market rally today is a bearish clue.
The U.S. dollar index closed up 9 points at 78.95 today. Prices closed nearer the session high in quieter trading. Short covering in a bear market was featured. Prices hit a fresh nine month low again today. Bears still have the overall near term technical advantage.
Trade School Video "The Fibonacci Tool Fully Explained"
Technical Analysis From Barclays: Oil Set to Fall on Spreads
Brent crude oil is likely to fall below $63 a barrel “in the next few weeks” as the spread between long term contracts widens, according to technical analysts at Barclays Capital. The discount for buying Brent contracts for delivery in December 2009 compared with December 2010 increased today to the most in more than two months. The spread, expressed as a negative number when the market is in contago, is now beneath a trend line connecting the low points during 2009. That may trigger further selling of Brent futures, analysts at the investment bank of Barclays Plc said yesterday in a report.....Complete Story
Oil Stays Above $65, Natural Gas Continues to Rise
Crude oil for September delivery fell slightly to settle above $65 Wednesday on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The price of oil today was tempered by less than stellar numbers coming out of the EIA. Crude oil for September delivery closed at $65.40 Wednesday on the NYMEX, a drop of 21 cents from yesterday’s close. While August deliveries expired yesterday, closing at $64.72, the price of September deliveries closed higher on Tuesday at $65.61.....Complete Story
Crude Oil Declines a Second Day After Fuel Inventories Increase
Crude oil for September delivery declined a second day in New York as rising U.S. fuel inventories dampened optimism for a swift rebound in demand. Gasoline and distillate fuel inventories in the U.S. rose in the week to July 17, the sixth consecutive
increase, while crude supplies fell, according to an Energy Department report yesterday. Japan’s oil imports fell for an eighth month in June. “Demand is weak, and spare capacity is the largest it’s ever been,” said Eugen Weinberg, an analyst at Commerzbank AG in Frankfurt.....Complete Story
Today’s Stock Market Club Trading Triangles
increase, while crude supplies fell, according to an Energy Department report yesterday. Japan’s oil imports fell for an eighth month in June. “Demand is weak, and spare capacity is the largest it’s ever been,” said Eugen Weinberg, an analyst at Commerzbank AG in Frankfurt.....Complete Story
Today’s Stock Market Club Trading Triangles
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