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Friday, August 7, 2009
N.Y. Natural Gas Rises as Unemployment Drop May Signal Recovery
Natural gas rose in New York, heading for the third weekly gain in four weeks, after a drop in the U.S. unemployment rate signaled that demand may soon recover from the worst economic slump since the Great Depression. Gas rose after the jobless rate fell for the first time since April 2008, a Labor Department report today showed. Factory payrolls fell 52,000, the fewest in a year. Industrial users account for about 29 percent of U.S. gas demand.....Complete Story
Labels:
great depression,
Labor Department,
Natural Gas,
unemployment
Crude Oil Rallies on Better Then Expected Employment Numbers
Crude oil was lower due to profit taking overnight but has rallied this morning as markets look to better than expected U.S. July employment data as a clue that the United States could be emerging from recession. Oil extends this week's narrow trading range as stochastics and the RSI are diverging but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.
If September extends the rally, the reaction high crossing at 74.25 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 66.81 would confirm that a short term top has been posted.
Friday's pivot point, our line in the sand is 71.47
First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at 72.42
Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 74.25
First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 69.35
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 66.81
How to Use Money Management Stops Effectively
Natural gas was slightly higher overnight as it consolidates some of Thursday's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 3.760 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 4.045 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted while opening the door for a larger degree rebound during the first half of August.
Nat gas pivot point for Friday is 3.85
First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 4.16
Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 4.72
First support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 3.76
Second support is the overnight low crossing at 3.71
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The September Dollar was lower overnight as it consolidates some of Thursday's rally and remains below the lower boundary of this summer's trading range crossing at 78.83. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term.
If September extends the decline, the 75% retracement level of the 2008-2009 rally crossing at 75.73 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 78.94 would temper the near term bearish outlook in the market. Closes above last Wednesday's high crossing at 79.77 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted.
First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 78.49
Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 78.94
First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 77.52
Second support is the 75% retracement level of the 2008-2009 rally at 75.73
Labels:
bearish,
Crude Oil,
diverging,
Natural Gas,
resistance,
RSI
Thursday, August 6, 2009
Oil Is Set for Fourth Weekly Gain on Economic Recovery Optimism
Crude oil traded near $72 a barrel, poised for a fourth weekly gain on optimism the outlook for a global economic recovery has improved. Oil is set to rise 3.2 percent this week as U.S. equities gained and the dollar weakened, increasing investor demand for commodities priced in the U.S. currency. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index reached a nine month high on Aug. 5. “The recent combination of a marked improvement in global business sentiment and a weaker dollar has proved a potent mix for commodities".....Complete Story
Crude Oil Closes Higher Extending This Weeks Rally
Crude oil closed slightly lower on Thursday as the market extends this week's trading range. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.
If September extends the rally off July's low, the reaction high crossing at 74.25 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 66.28 would confirm that a short term top has been posted.
First resistance is today's high crossing at 72.42
Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 74.25
First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 69.02
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 66.28
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Natural gas closed sharply lower on Thursday as it consolidated some of this week's rally. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral hinting that a short term top might be in or is near.
Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 3.747 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. If September extends the rally off July's low, June's high crossing at 4.716 is the next upside target.
First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 4.16
Second resistance is June's high crossing at 4.72
First support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 3.75
Second support is the reaction low crossing at 3.46
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Labels:
Crude Oil,
INO TV,
moving average,
Natural Gas,
Stochastics
Natural Gas Daily Technical Outlook from Oil N Gold
With an intraday top in place at 4.162, intraday outlook in natural gas remains neutral for the moment. While another rise cannot be ruled out as long as 3.603 minor support holds, note that since the current rise from 3.519 is treated as part of consolidation that started at 3.155, upside should be limited by 4.387/575 resistance zone and bring reversal. Break of 3.603 will in turn indicate that rebound from 3.519 has completed and flip bias back to the downside for 3.155/225 support zone. In the bigger picture.....Complete Story
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Labels:
downside,
intraday,
Oil N' Gold,
resistance
Gas Glut May Grow as XTO, Devon Wells Prove Prolific
The largest U.S. natural gas producers may be doing too well at the wellhead for their own good, pumping so much of the heating and power plant fuel that prices won’t soon recover from last year’s market collapse. XTO Energy Inc. and Devon Energy Corp., two of the five largest producers of U.S. gas, yesterday reported record output and smaller declines in earnings than analysts estimated. Anadarko Petroleum Corp., London based BP Plc and Chesapeake Energy Corp. previously reported second quarter output gains that helped them beat estimates.....Complete Story
Labels:
Anadarko,
APC,
Devon Energy,
DVN,
Natural Gas,
XTO,
XTO Energy
Oil, Natural Gas Market Commentary For Thursday Morning
Crude oil was lower due to profit taking overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off July's low. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging but are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.
If September extends the rally, the reaction high crossing at 74.25 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 66.27 would confirm that a short term top has been posted.
Crude oil pivot point for Thursday is 71.19
First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 72.42
Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 74.25
First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 69.00
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 66.27
How to Use Money Management Stops Effectively
Natural gas was slightly higher overnight and is poised to extend this week's rally. Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 4.05 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted while opening the door for a larger degree rebound during the first half of August.
If September renews last week's decline, July's low crossing at 3.366 is the next downside target.
Natural gas pivot point for Thursday is 4.00
First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 4.16
Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 4.72
First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 3.84
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 3.76
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Labels:
bullish,
Crude Oil,
moving average,
Natural Gas,
Stochastics
Has the ‘Gold Bull’ finally arrived?
Is this the Gold move we’ve all been waiting for?
Is the big move finally here? With so many stops and starts in the gold market, it’s hard to know which way is up.
We’re only going to leave this online for a short time. Given the state of the current economy, things move quickly. If the video isn’t watched soon, it won’t be of any use to you. So I urge you to take a few minutes to watch the possible outlooks for gold on the upside.
There is no need to register for this video and of course you can watch it with my compliments. I highly recommend watching this video today otherwise you risk missing out on what could be the move of the year.
Just Click Here to enjoy the video.
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Wednesday, August 5, 2009
Technical Update From The Gold and Oil Guy for August 5th
This week commodities have been moving higher which is exciting. Oil and natural gas have bullish looking daily and intraday price action. Monday we saw commodities spike higher and profit taking Tuesday and Wednesday. I am expecting a sharp move here and it could be in either direction, so this report is to keep you on your toes.
Crude oil broke out above our resistance trend line this week and has been moving sideways since Monday. This fund could pop up or down quickly here. I do not think it’s a good idea to be chasing it here.
Natural Gas – UNG ETF – Daily Chart
Seems like everyone wants to trade natural gas. I actually think more people are watching it than gold. Which is understandable because I too think Nat Gas has huge potential in the mid – long term time frame. This commodity/fund has chewed up more traders than any other fund. Maybe USO sucked as many people in; either way people are losing their shirts or already lost them with UNG!
It’s amazing how well some traders can buy at the high and sell almost at the very bottom when trading on emotions (fear and greed). That’s exactly what happens to traders when they see something with so much potential. Traders are thinking price could spike 50- 75% so they buy UNG because they are scared to miss out on the rally. Then greed sets in, they either buy more than they should have (large portion of their portfolio) or they buy more when the price drops a little. Eventually when prices break down and start to free fall all the weak hands bail out of their positions taking a nasty loss.
All this started because they think natural gas has HUGE potential and did not want to miss out. I do like natural gas but until I get a setup I keep my powder dry. If there is half the potential everyone is talking about then why is everyone so persistent at trying to pick the exact bottom? I do not bottom pick in a bear market, it’s not what successful traders do. Wait for the momentum to shift and jump on board when risk is low. I just want the low risk middle section between the bottom and the top.
TheGoldAndOilGuy Trading Conclusion:
The monthly hui chart is getting close to a long term buy signal. With any luck our recent buy signal in GDX will have us in early for the big breakout and multi month rally. I do not forecast but technically speaking the charts are looking bullish for precious metals. It is time for commodities to shine as they pause to take a breather. We could get a sharp drop or a nice pop higher in the next couple days only time will tell so be ready to lock in some gains if things start to slide.
The energy sector had some nice price action this week and with any luck we will have a low risk buy signals for our funds in the coming weeks.
If you would like to receive my Free Weekly Trading Reports or my Real-Time Trading Signals for ETF’s and Stocks please visit my websites at: www.GoldAndOilGuy.com or www.ActiveTradingPartner.com
If you have any questions please feel free to send me an email. My passion is to help others and for us all to make money together with little down side risk.
To Your Financial Success,
Chris Vermeulen
The Gold and Oil Guy
August Special - Save $49 & Get JT Grenough's Crisis Investing E-book Free with membership
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http://crudeoiltrader.blogspot.com/2009/08/technical-update-from-gold-and-oil-guy.html
Crude oil broke out above our resistance trend line this week and has been moving sideways since Monday. This fund could pop up or down quickly here. I do not think it’s a good idea to be chasing it here.
Natural Gas – UNG ETF – Daily Chart
Seems like everyone wants to trade natural gas. I actually think more people are watching it than gold. Which is understandable because I too think Nat Gas has huge potential in the mid – long term time frame. This commodity/fund has chewed up more traders than any other fund. Maybe USO sucked as many people in; either way people are losing their shirts or already lost them with UNG!
It’s amazing how well some traders can buy at the high and sell almost at the very bottom when trading on emotions (fear and greed). That’s exactly what happens to traders when they see something with so much potential. Traders are thinking price could spike 50- 75% so they buy UNG because they are scared to miss out on the rally. Then greed sets in, they either buy more than they should have (large portion of their portfolio) or they buy more when the price drops a little. Eventually when prices break down and start to free fall all the weak hands bail out of their positions taking a nasty loss.
All this started because they think natural gas has HUGE potential and did not want to miss out. I do like natural gas but until I get a setup I keep my powder dry. If there is half the potential everyone is talking about then why is everyone so persistent at trying to pick the exact bottom? I do not bottom pick in a bear market, it’s not what successful traders do. Wait for the momentum to shift and jump on board when risk is low. I just want the low risk middle section between the bottom and the top.
TheGoldAndOilGuy Trading Conclusion:
The monthly hui chart is getting close to a long term buy signal. With any luck our recent buy signal in GDX will have us in early for the big breakout and multi month rally. I do not forecast but technically speaking the charts are looking bullish for precious metals. It is time for commodities to shine as they pause to take a breather. We could get a sharp drop or a nice pop higher in the next couple days only time will tell so be ready to lock in some gains if things start to slide.
The energy sector had some nice price action this week and with any luck we will have a low risk buy signals for our funds in the coming weeks.
If you would like to receive my Free Weekly Trading Reports or my Real-Time Trading Signals for ETF’s and Stocks please visit my websites at: www.GoldAndOilGuy.com or www.ActiveTradingPartner.com
If you have any questions please feel free to send me an email. My passion is to help others and for us all to make money together with little down side risk.
To Your Financial Success,
Chris Vermeulen
The Gold and Oil Guy
August Special - Save $49 & Get JT Grenough's Crisis Investing E-book Free with membership
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badgetype="medium">
http://crudeoiltrader.blogspot.com/2009/08/technical-update-from-gold-and-oil-guy.html
Labels:
bullish,
Crude Oil,
Natural Gas,
The Gold and Oil Guy,
UNG,
USO
Oil Market Absorbs Bearish DOE Report, Closes Higher
Crude oil closed slightly higher on Wednesday after the market absorbed today's bearish DOE stocks report. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.
If September extends the rally off July's low, the reaction high crossing at 74.25 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 65.76 would confirm that a short term top has been posted.
First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 72.20
Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 74.25
First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 68.54
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 65.76
How To Spot Winning Futures....Watch Video NOW
Natural gas closed higher on Wednesday as it extends this week's rally. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that additional strength is possible near term.
If September extends the rally off July's low, June's high crossing at 4.716 is the next upside target.
First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 4.16
Second resistance is June's high crossing at 4.72
First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 3.81
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 3.74
How to Use Money Management Stops Effectively
The U.S. Dollar closed lower on Wednesday as it extends this month's decline below trading range support crossing at 78.83. The mid range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term.
If September extends this month's decline, weekly support crossing at 75.73 is the next downside target. Closes above last Wednesday's high crossing at 79.81 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted.
First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 78.65
Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 79.15
First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 77.55
Second support is weekly support crossing at 75.73
Labels:
Crude Oil,
DOE,
Natural Gas,
Stochastics,
U.S. Dollar
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