Crude Oil and Natural Gas Commodity ETF Explosion

Assessing whether more commodity funds will be forced to close, with John Hyland, United States Commodity Funds CIO and the Fast Money team.

Crude Oil Daily Technical Outlook

Crude oil's fall from 75.0 extends further and is now pressing near term trend line support. At this point, intraday bias remains on the downside. Sustained break of the trend line will affirm the case that whole rise from 58.32 has indeed ended at 75.0 already and turn focus to 65.23 support. Further break there will confirm and target 58.32 support next. On the upside, above 71.60 will flip intraday bias back to the upside for a test on 75.0 again and probably bring rally resumption to next long term Fibonacci resistance at 76.77 (38.2% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2). In the bigger picture, there is no change in the view that rise from 33.2 is a correction to whole down trend form 147.27.....Read the complete article

The Nasdaq Cut Open and Broken Down

Since we follow the NASDAQ as a market direction indicator and crude oil future demand concerns rely on the markets right now we thought it would be a good idea to examine the NASDAQ Index. This market, which made its peak in 2000 at the height of the dot com bubble, remains in a secular bear market.

After making a low in March of 2001, this market has had multi-year recovery which has rallied it very close to a 50% Fibonacci retracement level. After a nearly 50% recovery, this market now appears to be faltering.

The months of September and October are now with us and both of these months tend to be treacherous for the equity markets. We would not be surprised to see more of a two way trading market before it eventually falls on its own weight and resumes a downward path. This is what we expect to happen, however, we are going to rely on our Trade Triangle technology to give us the perfect timing for that event.

Click Here For Today’s Video and we will show you graphically what we expect to happen to the NASDAQ Index.

The Death of an Energy ETF....RIP DXO

It has been no secret that the CFTC is looking into many exchange traded notes and exchange traded funds that deal in the energy markets, along with other futures and other investment vehicles, to see how the role of speculators has played in the price swings in the commodity markets. Today came the announcement that one ETN is going to be killed (ergo redeemed) as a result. Deutsche Bank announced that it will redeem all outstanding units of its PowerShares DB Crude Oil Double Long Exchange Traded Notes (NYSE: DXO). The financial firm said that limitations imposed by the exchange on which Deutsche Bank manages the exposure of the notes have resulted in a “regulatory event” as defined in the terms of the notes… and this is causing Deutsche Bank to redeem the notes.....complete story

Oil Hovers Above $68 as US crude Inventories Drop

(AP:LONDON) Oil prices hovered above $68 a barrel Wednesday after a two day plunge as a drop in U.S. crude inventories suggested demand may be recovering. Benchmark crude for October delivery was up 60 cents to $68.29 a barrel by midday European time in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The contract Tuesday lost $1.91 to settle at $68.05. Oil sank almost $5 a barrel in the first two days of the week as investors worried that a global economic recovery this year would be slow and may not justify the big rallies in stocks and commodities since March.

U.S. stock indexes fell about 2 percent Tuesday.

Investors were cheered somewhat when the American Petroleum Institute said late Tuesday that U.S. inventories plunged 3.2 million barrels last week. Analysts had expected the API numbers to drop 1.9 million barrels, according to a survey by Platts, the energy information arm of McGraw-Hill Cos.

The Energy Department reports mandatory supply figures later on Wednesday, while refiners voluntarily report the API numbers. There were also signs Tuesday that the U.S. economy the biggest consumer of oil is improving.

The Institute for Supply Management, a trade group of purchasing executives, said its manufacturing index rose in August, indicating an expansion for the first time since January 2008. And the National Association of Realtors said pending U.S. home sales rose to the highest level in more than two years.

In other Nymex trading, gasoline for October delivery rose 1.81 cents to $1.80 a gallon and heating oil gained 2.41 cents to $1.78 a gallon. Natural gas jumped 3.6 cents to $2.86 per 1,000 cubic feet.

In London, Brent crude was up 67 cents at $68.40.

Bloomberg Technical Analysis: Oil Uptrend Intact Until a Drop Below $66

Crude oil, which fell from a 10 month high of $75 a barrel in New York last week, remains in an uptrend and a sustained move lower isn’t likely unless prices settle below $66, National Australia Bank Ltd. said. Oil may climb to its recent highs in coming weeks even as the volatility in prices reflected uncertainty among traders, according to Gordon Manning, a Sydney based technical analyst. He correctly predicted Aug. 5 that the market wouldn’t settle below $66 a barrel on its way to a new high for 2009. “It’s not a downtrend in my books,” Manning said in a phone interview today. “It certainly hasn’t pushed on with the sort of aggression that I thought it might do, but there’s not enough damage to really get too worried”.....Read the complete article

Get Your Favorite Market Analyzed, Instantly!

With all the movements in the market recently, especially today, traders and investors are focusing more and more on protecting capital. I’ve found that by properly knowing the trend of the symbols in my portfolio and keeping on top of those moves, I’m able to protect capital and pull profits out of the market when I can.

But staying on top of the changes and momentum shifts often becomes overwhelming, especially if you’re watching a large number of symbols and open positions, like me. One free tool that I utilize to help me keep on top of my portfolio is called Trend Analysis, from the team that runs MarketClub. Trend Analysis is a daily email analysis tool that gives me insight into exactly what my portfolio is doing.

Follow This Link to get your first symbol analyzed and from there you can easily add more symbols to get a daily update, which I find very helpful.

Again thanks go to the MarketClub team for making Trend Analysis available for no cost to us. Just click here to learn more about MarketClub.

Markets Close Sharply Lower, Bulls Still Have Slight Advantage Near Term

The U.S. stock indexes closed solidly lower today. The stock index bulls still have the slight overall near term technical advantage, but are fading heading into the historically bearish months of September and October.

Crude oil closed down $1.70 at $68.26 a barrel today. Prices closed near the session low today, hit a fresh three week low and were pressured by a big sell off in the U.S. stock market and a stronger U.S. dollar. Crude bulls and bears are on a level near term technical playing field.

Natural gas closed down 15.5 cents at $2.822 today. Prices closed near the session low today and did notch another fresh contract and seven year low. The bears are still in firm technical control. There are still no early technical clues of a market low being close at hand.

The U.S. dollar index closed up 59 points at 79.11 today. Prices closed nearer the session high today. Short covering in a bear market was featured. Bears still have the overall near term technical advantage.

Another Natural Gas Bull Sticks His Neck Out

I was focused on writing the 4th issue for subscribers, due out the second week of September, but I came across a research article I wanted to share with readers. Martin King, an energy analyst at First Energy in Calgary is the latest to trot out the “it’s darkest before the dawn buy natural gas stocks now” theme, in a 5 page note on August 31. I’ll tell you about his key points in a minute. But first, I want to say this guy has a track record that I follow. Back on February 19 of this year, he put out a similar research note on natural gas stocks that was uncannily accurate. Just like now, sentiment for natural gas stocks was very low, and he stuck his neck out saying it’s time to be a contrarian and buy. And natural gas stocks did have a strong spring much stronger than I anticipated.....complete article

Crude Oil Retreats as U.S. Equities Decline on Earnings Concern

Crude oil retreated as U.S. equities declined on concern that the recent stock-market rally has outpaced the outlook for financial company earnings. Oil dropped and stocks declined for a third day as analysts said insurance company shares had risen too far. Prices climbed as much as $1.41 a barrel earlier today when reports showed that manufacturing in the U.S. and China, the two biggest energy consuming countries, expanded in August. Crude oil for October delivery fell 46 cents, or 0.7 percent, to $69.50 a barrel at 11:21 a.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Futures are up 56 percent this year. Brent crude oil for October settlement slipped 6 cents to $69.59 a barrel on the London based ICE Futures Europe exchange.....complete article