UNG - Still in a Downtrend, or Has the Tide Turned?

With all of the controversy UNG has been through this summer, more then ever we have to rely on technical analysis and trend indicators. We rely solely on Smart Scan Chart Analysis for the current trend and Smart Scan is still showing some near term weakness in UNG. However, UNG is now in a longer term uptrend and should be traded with tight money management stops.

Based on a pre-defined weighted trend formula for chart analysis, UNG scored +70 on a scale from -100 (strong downtrend) to +100 (strong uptrend):

+10......Last Hour Close Above 5 Hour Moving Average
+15......New 3 Day High on Wednesday
+20......Last Price Above 20 Day Moving Average
+25......New 3 Week High, Week Ending September 19th
-30......New 3 Month Low in September
+70......Total Score



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Dan Dicker expert trader reveals the best oil stocks to own and how to diversify your energy portfolio.

Crude Consolidates Just Below our Previous 3rd Tier Downtrend Line

Crude futures are hanging just below our previous 3rd tier downtrend line after posting a solid recovery from our 1st tier uptrend line. Crude futures picked themselves up after Friday's sell off on large volume following broad based depreciation of the Dollar coupled with the S&P breaking through 1050. Investors returned to risk in the aftermath of better than expected global economic data. The most positive catalyst for crude futures was the impressive showing in Core Retail Sales on Tuesday. Improvement in consumption helps raise the outlook for present and future demand for commodities such as crude. As for the supply side, the U.S. reported another large inventory shortage for the third time in the past four weeks. The dramatic drop in supply combined.....Read the entire article

How To Find Winning Trades In Any Market

Is There Something Wrong with the Crude Oil Market?

With the official end to summer, the Labor Day weekend, behind us and the nation's largest energy company investor conference underway, the oil market received several shot in the arm positives last week. Wall Street talking heads had a difficult time understanding what was going on with the price of gold and crude oil futures soaring on the first trading day following last Monday's holiday. Gold futures traded over $1,000 an ounce and crude oil prices jumped by $3 a barrel. The inability of the talking heads to explain the phenomenon left us wondering if we were seeing a global investor reaction to Washington politicians returning to work. Those of us living in Texas have a reaction when our legislature goes into session in Austin. We hold onto our wallets during those few months of the legislative session every two years since that is our peak exposure to politicians inflicting serious financial damage on our wellbeing.....Read the entire article

Gas Fund’s Roll ‘Slaughtered’ Speculators, Boosted Volatility

Speculators trying to profit from the U.S. Natural Gas Fund’s roll of futures contracts got “slaughtered” and helped boost volatility as gas prices surged this week, said Adam Felesky, chief executive officer of BetaPro Management Inc.

Gas for October delivery rose 27 percent, through yesterday, on the New York Mercantile Exchange as traders had to cover their bets that the gas fund’s sale of the front month contract would reduce the price, said Felesky. Volatility jumped to the highest level since Amaranth Advisors LLC collapsed in September 2006.

Speculators shorted October gas, anticipating that the $4 billion gas fund would push prices down when it began selling its October contracts on Sept. 14, said Felesky, whose C$1 billion ($937.1 million) Horizons BetaPro Nymex Natural Gas Bull Plus ETF rolled around the same time as the larger fund.....Read the entire story

Oil Price Remains Firm As Strong Stock Market Offers Support

Strong trading momentum in crude oil persists and the benchmark contract rises further to 72.7 in European morning. Investors remain thrilled by the huge draw in crude inventory despite weak fuel demand. Advance in equity markets and weakness in USD also support prices. Stock markets in Europe open higher Thursday. UK's FTSE 100 Index climbs +1% tpo 5172 although the country's retail sales stayed flat in August from a month ago. The market had expected a +0.1% gain. On annual basis, the gauge rose +2.1% while July's sales were revised down to +2.9%. Both of DAX (Germany) and CAC 40 (France) gain +0.6% in morning session.

Stocks in Asia performed very well with the MSCI Asia Pacific Index rising +1.2%, In Japan, the Nikkei 225 Stock Average surged +1.7% to 10444 as the Bank of Japan upgraded its economic outlook on the nation. The BOJ stated that Japan' economy has shown 'signs of recovery', compared with the 'stopped worsening' comment made in the previous month. However, the central bank remained concerned about the downside risk to growth and hence maintained the policy rate at 0.1%.....Read the entire article with charts!

Oil Trades Near $72 After Supplies Drop to Lowest Since January

Oil traded near $72 a barrel in New York after the U.S. Energy Department reported that crude stockpiles in the biggest energy consuming nation dropped to the lowest level since January. Crude inventories fell 4.73 million barrels, the weekly report showed yesterday, more than the 2.5 million barrel decline forecast in a Bloomberg News analyst survey.

Prices also gained as the dollar declined to the weakest level in almost a year and as global equities advanced, spurring expectations of improving fuel demand.“The gains in equities support optimism for the economic recovery that would drive oil demand and lead to supply tightness,” said Victor Shum, a senior principal at consultants Purvin & Gertz Inc. in Singapore.....Read the entire article

New Video: Crude Oil Rises After EIA Report

New Video: USD$ Dollar Index UPDATE

The last time we made a video of this index was a little over two months ago. In that video our Trade Triangle technology predicted that we would see further weakness in the Dollar Index.

Guess what? This market has weakened substantially since our last video on July 14. We also pointed this out in a blog post on September 3rd.

Our Trade Triangle technology has really been on top of this market and captured every major move since inception. MarketClub’s “Trade Triangles” remain steadfastly bearish and there appears to be no lasting turnaround in the Dollar Index as of this writing.

In this short video, we want to show you exactly how the Trade Triangles can benefit your own trading. The process is very simple, very direct, and yes, very profitable. Nothing is guaranteed in trading, but you will certainly put the odds in your corner using our Trade Triangle technology.

Just Click Here to watch the video!

There is no need to register for this video and of course you can watch it with our compliments. I highly recommend watching this video today otherwise you risk missing out on what could be the move of the year.

Please feel free to leave a comment and let us know what you think.

Is Resolution of Natural Gas Conundrum About to Emerge?

For most of this year, natural gas prices have moved counter to almost everyone's expectations falling while crude oil prices have risen dramatically. The conventional explanation has been that natural gas production coming from the newly completed wells in the prolific gas shale formations around the country is much greater than from traditionally located and drilled wells. The unanswered questions are when will this phenomenon of more productive wells coming on stream end and why are producers continuing to drill ANY gas wells in a sub $3 per thousand cubic feet (Mcf) world?

Why are producers continuing to drill ANY gas wells in a sub-$3 per thousand cubic feet (Mcf) world?

Some producers have claimed that they have been scaling back their gas drilling activity lately, despite the recent uptick in gas drilling rigs, but the backlog of drilled but yet to be completed wells is being worked down and that accounts for many of the prolific new wells coming on stream. The answer to why producers are willing to drill and complete wells in today's low gas price world is answered by the strong contango that has prices for natural gas one year into the future selling at nearly $2 per Mcf higher than current fiscal spot prices. The two charts below.....Read the entire article with charts!