Crude Oil Rises for First Time in Five Days on Dollar Decline

Crude oil rose for the first time in five days as the dollar weakened and some investors took the view a decline below $75 made it an attractive investment. Oil snapped four days of losses as the dollar fell against the euro, increasing the appeal of commodities as an alternative investment. The contract has traded between $75 and $81 for almost eight weeks and yesterday settled below $75 for the first time since Oct. 13.

“Markets had for a while started to get used to the $75 to $80 a barrel range for oil, and the move to the lower part of that range is probably attracting some buying,” David Moore, a commodity strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia Ltd. in Sydney, said by telephone. “The U.S. dollar eased back and that’s been another factor why the oil price has lifted.”

Crude oil for January delivery gained as much as 46 cents, or 0.6 percent, to $74.39 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. It was at $74.12 a barrel at 11:58 a.m. Singapore time. Yesterday, the contract fell $1.54, or 2 percent, to $73.93. Prices have climbed 67 percent this year.The dollar traded at $1.4841 per euro at 12:05 p.m. in Singapore, from $1.4827 yesterday.

Oil dropped yesterday as Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said the U.S. economy will face a weak labor market and tight credit, signaling fuel demand will be slow to recover. Bernanke’s comments “gave markets a bit of a reality check and made people reassess how they thought the recovery is going to pan out,” Ben Westmore, an energy and minerals economist at National Australia Bank Ltd. in Melbourne, said by phone. “As a result oil got sold off”.....Read the entire article.


Share

Where is Crude Oil Headed on Tuesday?

CNBC's Bertha Coombs discusses the day's activity in the commodities markets, and looks ahead to where oil is likely headed tomorrow.




Share

Can it be....Crude Oil AND U.S. Dollar set for Lower Open on Tuesday

Crude oil closed lower on Monday as it extends last week's decline. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. If January extends the decline off October's high, the 75% retracement level of this fall's rally crossing at 70.23 is the next downside target. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 79.04 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted.

First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 76.56
Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 77.74

First support is the reaction low crossing at 72.39
Second support is the 75% retracement level of this fall's rally crossing at 70.23

What do Super Traders have in common?

Natural gas closed higher due to short covering on Monday and above the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.822 confirming that a short term low has been posted. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold and are turning bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

If January extends today's rally, the reaction high crossing at 5.290 is the next upside target. If January renews this year's decline, weekly support crossing at 4.157 is the next downside target.

First resistance is today's high crossing at 5.009
Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 5.290

First support is last Thursday's low crossing at 4.432
Second support is weekly support crossing at 4.157

Double Tops and Pivot Points Explained

The U.S. Dollar closed lower due to profit taking on Monday as it consolidated some of last Friday's rally but remains above the 20 day moving average crossing at 75.49. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

If March extends last week's rally, November's high crossing at 77.27 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10 day moving average crossing at 75.32 would temper the near term friendly outlook in the Dollar.

First resistance is today's high crossing at 76.57
Second resistance is November's high crossing at 77.27

First support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 75.49
Second support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 75.32

The Buy and Hold Myth.....Is Buy and Hold Back?

Share

Crude Oil Drops for a Fourth Day, Trades Below $75 as Dollar Strengthens

Crude oil dropped for a fourth day, trading below $75 a barrel as the dollar gained amid speculation the U.S. Federal Reserve will start raising interest rates. Oil closed at its lowest level since Oct. 14 last week after a better than forecast U.S. jobless report bolstered the dollar. Commodities including gold and oil typically weaken when the dollar appreciates. Traders have raised their expectations that the Fed will lift interest rates early next year.

“We’re seeing continued follow-through from the jobs data, fueling talk that the Federal Reserve may need to consider raising interest rates, strengthening the dollar,” said Tom Bentz, a senior energy analyst at BNP Paribas Commodity Futures Inc. in New York. Crude oil for January delivery fell $1.02, or 1.4 percent, to $74.45 a barrel at 10:55 a.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange, marking the first four day decline since August. Prices have climbed 67 percent this year.

The dollar increased to $1.4827 per euro from $1.4858 in New York at the end of last week. The dollar weakened this year as the Federal Reserve kept benchmark interest rates near zero since December 2008 to revive lending after the worst financial crisis since World War II.....Read the entire article.

Share

Crude Oil, Commodities Fall on Fed Rate Speculation

Crude oil was lower overnight as it extends the decline off October's high. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term.

If January extends the decline off October's high, the 75% retracement level of this fall's rally crossing at 70.23 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 77.78 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted.

Monday's pivot point, our line in the sand is 76.07

First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 76.65.
Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 77.78.

First support is the reaction low crossing at 72.39.
Second support is the 75% retracement level of this fall's rally crossing at 70.23.

What do all market wizards have in common?

Natural gas was higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates some of last week's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold and are turning neutral hinting that a short term low might be in or is near.

Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.810 would temper the near term bearish outlook in the market. If January extends this year's decline, weekly support crossing at 4.157 is the next downside target.

Natural gas pivot point for Monday is 4.569

First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 4.782
Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.810

First support is last Thursday's low crossing at 4.432
Second support is weekly support crossing at 4.157

How To Find Winning Trades In Any Market

The U.S. Dollar was higher overnight as it extends last Friday's short covering rally. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If March extends last Friday's rally, November's high crossing at 77.27 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10 day moving average crossing at 75.35 would temper the near term bullish outlook in the market.

First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 76.60
Second resistance is November's high crossing at 77.27

First support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 75.51
Second support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 75.35

What are you waiting for....Here is 10 FREE Trading Lessons!

Share

Crude Oil Weekly Technical Outlook

Crude oil's rebound from 72.39 was limited at 79.04 and well below mentioned 80.51 resistance. Crude oil then weakened again with a break of 75.18 minor support on Friday. The development firstly indicates that recovery from 72.39 has completed and thus flip the bias back to the downside for a retest on 72.39 initially this week. Secondly, there is no indication that choppy fall from 82.0 has finished and thus more downside will remain in favor in near term. Break of 72.39 will target trend line support at 71.16 next.

In the bigger picture, question remains on whether crude oil's medium term rebound from 33.2 has completed at 82.0 already and the outlook is quite mixed so far. Nevertheless, now, as long as 79.04 resistance holds, fall from 82.0 will remain in favor to continue and we'd slightly prefer the bearish case that crude oil has topped out at 82.0 already. Sustained trading below the trend line support (now at 71.16) will add more credence to this case and target 58.32 cluster support (50% retracement of 33.2 to 82 at 57.60) for confirmation.

On the upside, though, above 79.04 resistance will suggest that recent choppy price actions from 82.0 are merely consolidations in the medium term rise from 33.2. In such case, the rise from 33.2 might be ready to resume for another high above 82.0. However, as we expect such rise to conclude inside resistance zone of 76.77/90.24 (38.2% and 50% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2), focus will remain on loss of momentum and reversal signal in this case.

In the long term picture, there is no change in the view that fall from 147.27 is part of the correction to the five wave sequence from 98 low of 10.65. While the rebound from 33.2 is strong and might continue, there is no solid evidence that suggest fall 147.27 is completed and we're still preferring the case that rebound from 33.2 is merely a corrective rise only. Having said that strong resistance should be seen between 76.77/90.24 fibo resistance zone and bring reversal for another low below 33.2 before completing the whole correction from 147.27......Nymex Crude Oil Continuous Contract 4 Hours Chart.

Share

Where is Crude Oil Headed This Week?

CNBC's Sharon Epperson discusses the day's activity in the commodities markets, and looks ahead to where oil is likely headed next week.




Share

Arctic Melts, But no Big "Cold Rush" for Oil

A retreat of Arctic ice in summers is changing indigenous peoples' livelihoods and will threaten the survival of polar bears, writes Alun Anderson in "After the Ice" (HarperCollins), packed with anecdotes about shifts already under way. "The Arctic is seeing a more dramatic change to its environment and ecosystems than any part of the planet has seen for many thousands of years," he writes in the book, subtitled "Life, Death and Geopolitics in the New Arctic". Oil companies are looking north but Anderson, a former editor of New Scientist magazine, shows huge problems of icebergs, waves, cold and currents that would complicate drilling as well as transport of any oil or gas to shore.

"My bet is that the oil and gas boom will be short lived and will not go far beyond the shallow seas of Russia and perhaps some of the regions close to the Alaskan shores," he writes. Anderson, a former research biologist who lives in London, quotes experts as agreeing that prospects of a "Cold Rush" for riches of the central Arctic lie far in the future. Still, Russia planted a flag in the waters deep beneath the North Pole in 2007 in a symbolic claim. And the U.S. Geological Survey estimated last year the Arctic could hold 90 billion barrels of oil, enough to meet world demand for three years. Among offshore fields closer to land, Gazprom's (GAZP.MM) is planning to tap the big Shtokman gas deposit.....Read the entire article.

FREE Trade School Video “The Fibonacci Tool Fully Explained”


Share

Low Range Close in Oil Sets The Stage For Weak Open on Monday

Crude oil closed lower on Friday as it extends this week's decline. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. If January extends the decline off October's high, the 75% retracement level of this fall's rally crossing at 70.23 is the next downside target. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 79.92 would confirm that a short term low has been posted.

First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 76.95
Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 77.96

First support is last Friday's low crossing at 72.39
Second support is the 75% retracement level of this fall's rally crossing at 70.23

Get your favorite symbols' Trend Analysis TODAY!

Natural gas closed higher due to short covering on Friday as it consolidated some of this fall's decline. The mid range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI remains bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term.

If January extends this week's decline, weekly support crossing at 4.157 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.821 would temper the near term bearish outlook in the market.

First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 4.785
Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.821

First support is Thursday's low crossing at 4.432
Second support is weekly support crossing at 4.157

What do Super Traders have in common?

The U.S. Dollar closed sharply higher on Friday and above the reaction high crossing at 76.03 thereby confirming that a short term low has been posted. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

If March extends this week's rally, the reaction high crossing at 76.50 is the next upside target. If March renews this year's decline, weekly support crossing at 73.39 is the next downside target.

First resistance is today's high crossing at 76.33
Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 76.50

First support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 75.46
Second support is last Wednesday's low crossing at 74.21

Today’s Stock Market Club Trading Triangles

Share

Oldest Oil Fund in the U.S. Targets Solar Stocks as Crude Outlook Dims

Petroleum & Resources Corp., the oldest U.S. oil fund, plans to invest in solar and wind power production for the first time since its founding in 1929 as governments crack down on fuels linked to greenhouse gases. The $555 million closed end fund, whose biggest holdings are Exxon Mobil Corp. and Chevron Corp., is analyzing wind power, biofuels, solar and hybrid car battery makers with an eye to making investments as soon as the second quarter of 2010, Chief Executive Officer Douglas Ober said.

Aside from an investment in an ethanol producer two years ago and a wind turbine manufacturer in the 1990s, the Baltimore based fund never before ventured into so called green energy, Ober said. That’s changing now because of legislative efforts to discourage use of oil based fuels and concern that global crude supplies are getting harder to find. “Climate legislation looks like it may become a reality in Washington, and that’s going to usher in significant changes for the oil companies,” Ober said yesterday in a telephone interview. “We realize there isn’t going to be oil forever, so we need to look for other types of stocks and find the right place to be”.....Read the entire article.

The Secrets to Building Your Own Solar Energy System.....For Under $200!

Share