Gold Moves Higher on Consolidation, Signals Remain Bearish

Gold closed higher on Thursday as it consolidated some of Tuesday's decline. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bearish hinting that a short term top might be in or is near.

Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 1116.90 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted. If February extends the rally off December's low, the reaction high crossing at 1170.20 is the next upside target.

Thursday evenings pivot point is 1131.40

First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 1163.00
Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 1170.20

First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 1118.50
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 1116.90

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Crude Oil Bulls Forced to Defend 78.83 on Friday

Crude oil closed lower on Thursday as it extends this week's decline. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term.

Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 78.83 would open the door for a larger degree decline during January. If February renews this winter's rally, the 38% retracement level of the 2008 decline crossing at 84.82 is the next upside target.

First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 81.40
Second resistance is Monday's high crossing at 83.95

First support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 78.83
Second support is Wednesday's low crossing at 78.37

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Natural gas closed lower on Thursday ending a two day short covering bounce off Tuesday's low. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish hinting that a pause in this month's decline is possible.

Closes above today's high crossing at 5.804 would temper the near term bearish outlook in the market. If February extends this week's decline, the 50% retracement level of the December-January rally crossing at 5.314 is the next downside target.

First resistance is today's high crossing at 5.804
Second resistance is last week's high crossing at 6.108

First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 5.354
Second support is the 50% retracement level of the December-January rally crossing at 5.314

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The U.S. Dollar closed lower on Thursday as it extends this week's decline. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term.

If March extends this week's decline, the 50% retracement level of the November-December rally crossing at 76.66 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 77.85 would confirm that a short term low has been posted.

First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 77.54
Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 77.85

First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 76.74
Second support is the 50% retracement level of the November-December rally crossing at 76.66

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Oil Falls After U.S. Reports Drop in Retail Sales, Higher Jobless Claims

Crude oil fluctuated as U.S. retail sales unexpectedly weakened and jobless claims rose, indicating that the economy will be slow to recover. Oil extended its longest decline in a month as sales at U.S. retailers slipped 0.3 percent in December, after a 1.8 percent jump in November, according to the Commerce Department in Washington. Weekly jobless claims climbed 2.5 percent, the most in five weeks, the Labor Department said. “It’s getting more and more difficult to maintain prices at around $80, though last week it seemed like it was going to be the floor,” said Michael Fitzpatrick, vice president of energy at MF Global in New York. Prices are likely to trade in a $70 to $80 range without “incontrovertible signs that the economy is improving.”

Crude oil for February delivery fell 17 cents to $79.48 a barrel at 12:16 p.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Crude prices have more than doubled in the past year, reaching a 15- month high of $83.95 on Jan. 11. Oil fell as much as 0.9 percent and rose as much as 0.9 percent today. Oil settled below $80 a barrel yesterday for the first time this year, after a U.S. government report showed the country’s crude and fuel inventories increased last week. Crude has declined 5.3 percent from the Jan. 11 high.

February crude oil options expiration at the end of the trading day is making futures volatile, analysts said.....Read the entire article.

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Crude Oil Futures Trading CL – Daily Chart

Oil has pulled back the past few days and is now trading near a support level. I feel it is over sold and could bounce the second half of this week and I will keep my eye on it for members.



Chris Vermeulen "The Gold and Oil Guy"




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Crude Oil and Natural Gas Technical Outlook For Thursday Morning

Nymex Crude Oil (CL)

With 81.98 minor resistance intact, crude oil's correction from 83.95 might still extend further for 38.2% retracement of 68.59 to 83.95 at 78.08 and below. But downside should be contained by 61.8% retracement at 74.46 and bring rally resumption. Above 81.98 will flip intraday bias back to the upside. Further break of 83.95 will target upper trend line resistance at 87/88 level again.

In the bigger picture, the break of 82.0 resistance confirms that whole medium term rise from 33.2 has resumed. Nevertheless, there is no change in the view that it's a correction to fall from 147.27. Hence, we'd continue to look for reversal signal as crude oil approaches 50% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2 at 90.24, which is close to 90 psychological level. However, break of 68.59 support is still needed to confirm that rise from 33.2 has completed. Otherwise, outlook will be neutral at worst even in case of deep pull back.....Nymex Crude Oil Continuous Contract 4 Hours Chart.

Nymex Natural Gas (NG)

Natural gas drew strong support from mentioned 38.2% retracement of 4.157 to 6.108 at 5.363 and rebounds strongly. At this point, intraday bias remains neutral. Break of 5.850 minor resistance will indicate that pull back from 6.108 has completed and will flip intraday bias back to the upside for a retest on 6.108 resistance. On the downside, however, below 5.354 will bring fall resumption towards 61.8% retracement at 4.902 instead.

In the bigger picture, medium term fall from 13.69 is treated as part of the long term consolidation pattern that started at 15.78 back in 2005 and might have completed at 2.409 already. Rise from 2.409 is still in progress and should target 38.2% retracement of 13.694 to 2.409 at 6.72 and beyond. On the downside, break of 4.157 support is needed to indicate that medium term rise from 2.409 has completed. Otherwise, outlook is neutral at worst even in case of deep pullback.....Nymex Natural Gas Continuous Contract 4 Hours Chart.

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Crude Oil Struggles Against Demand Concern on Weak Retail Numbers

Crude oil was higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates some of this week's decline but remains below the 10 day moving average. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term.

Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 78.83 would open the door for a larger degree decline during January.

Thursday's pivot point, our line in the sand is 79.56

First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 81.40
Second resistance is Monday's high crossing at 83.95

First support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 78.83
Second support is Wednesday's low crossing at 78.37

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Natural gas was slightly higher overnight as it extended the short covering rally off Tuesday's low. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 5.746 would temper the near term bearish outlook in the market. If February renews this month's decline, the 50% retracement level of the December-January rally crossing at 5.314 is the next downside target.

Natural gas pivot point for Thursday is 5.650

First resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 5.746
Second resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 5.785

First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 5.354
Second support is the 50% retracement level of the December-January rally crossing at 5.314

Just click here for your FREE trend analysis of UNG

The U.S. Dollar was higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates some of this week's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain bearish signaling that additional weakness is possible near term.

If March extends the decline off December's high, the 50% retracement level of the November-December rally crossing at 76.66 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 77.86 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted.

First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 77.56
Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 77.86

First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 76.74
Second support is the 50% retracement level of the November-December rally crossing at 76.66

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New Trend TV Video - Applications of Candlestick Charting

Many investors attempt to incorporate candlestick charting into their trading plans, however few know why this tool has become so popular.

In this complimentary video, “Advanced Applications of Candlestick Charting,” authors, software programmers, and co-founders of the International Pacific Trading Company, Gary Wagner & Brad Matheny will walk you through:

-History of candlestick charting
-How to interpret candlesticks
-How to merge techniques of Eastern & Western technical analysis together
-How to merge candlestick techniques with your current trading plan
-And more…

You’ll watch and listen as Wagner explains the importance of using this strategy. He says, in part, “Candlestick patterns are a mathematical formula which illustrate the psychological market sentiment. In other words, as a market reverses, or a market is moving in an up trend, there are certain traits that can be distilled in terms of mathematical formulas that will reveal some very important information.”

This 100 minute complimentary video can be found on Trend TV. You don’t have to worry about watching the whole video at once. After you have a password, you can revisit anytime to watch the rest of a video, review a video, or watch other videos on Trend TV.

Just click here to watch "Applications of Candlestick Charting".

Good Trading,
Ray C. Parrish
President/CEO The Crude Oil Trader

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Where is Crude Oil Headed on Thursday?

CNBC's Brian Shactman discusses the day's activity in the commodities markets, and looks ahead to where oil is likely headed tomorrow.




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Early Session Short Covering Rally in Crude Oil Ends With Mid Range Close

Crude oil closed lower on Wednesday as it extended Tuesday's decline below the 10 day moving average crossing at 81.36. A short covering rally tempered early session losses and the mid range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 78.48 would open the door for a larger degree decline during January. If February renews this winter's rally, the 38% retracement level of the 2008 decline crossing at 84.82 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 81.36. Second resistance is Monday's high crossing at 83.95. First support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 78.48. Second support is today's low crossing at 78.37.

Natural gas closed higher due to short covering on Wednesday as it consolidated some of Monday's decline. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If February extends this week's decline, the 50% retracement level of the December-January rally crossing at 5.314 is the next downside target. First resistance is today's high crossing at 5.785. Second resistance is last week's high crossing at 6.108. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 5.354. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the December-January rally crossing at 5.314.

The U.S. Dollar closed lower on Wednesday as it extends this week's decline. The mid range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If March extends this week's decline, the 50% retracement level of the November-December rally crossing at 76.66 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 77.87 would confirm that a short term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 77.69. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 77.87. First support is today's low crossing at 76.74. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the November-December rally crossing at 76.66.

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A Picture of Our Post Peak Oil Food Supply

We have commented on several books in recent months that highlight how a world with limited oil resources will be forced to change. The idea that people will no longer be able to live in the suburbs and forced to move into metropolitan areas because of the lack of gasoline and high fuel prices seems extreme to us.

The authors of these books believe that much about how Americans live must change as a result of Peak Oil. One change they often point to is that our diets will be different as the cost to deliver certain foods will become prohibitively expensive. Often cited are certain fish and seafood that come from foreign locations. These authors also believe Americans will be reassessing how food supplies are grown, suggesting local gardens and farms will become our primary source of supply.

We recently read Mark Kurlansky's 2009 book,The Food of a Younger Land (Riverhead Books) that offers a peak at how we might be eating in an oil constrained world. The book was based on the lost WPA files. During the Great Depression, the government was confronted with how to deal with stubbornly high unemployment. The Works Progress Administration of the Franklin Roosevelt administration was created to develop projects that would employ workers throughout the economy on government payrolls.....Read the entire article.

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