Crude Oil Rises a Second Day as Dollar Weakens Against Euro, Equities Gain

Crude oil rose for a second day as the dollar weakened against the euro, increasing the appeal of commodities as an alternative investment, and equities advanced. Oil gained as much as 1.9 percent as the dollar, which traded at an eight month high last week, fell for the first time since Feb. 2 amid speculation European officials meeting this week will assist Greece in tackling its budget deficit. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index also rose on the outlook for Greece.

“It looks like the rebound of the dollar is weakening a bit, and that’s what’s driving oil to the largest extent right now,” said Kyle Cooper, a managing director at energy consultant IAF Advisors in Houston. “The dollar and equities are certainly having a significant impact.” Crude oil for March delivery rose $1.17, or 1.6 percent, to $73.06 a barrel at 10:26 a.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Futures have gained 85 percent in the past year.

The dollar lost 0.7 percent against the euro to $1.3744 from $1.3649 yesterday. It touched $1.3586 on Feb. 5. “The overall market is up because the euro has strengthened on speculation that the European Union will do something to assist the Greek government with their deficit,” said Andy Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates LLC in Houston.....Read the entire article.

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Crude Oil Surges on Consolidation in the U.S. Dollar

Crude oil was steady to slightly higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates some of last Friday's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging but are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term.

If March extends last week's decline, last September's low crossing at 67.46 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 75.72 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted.

Tuesday's pivot point, our line in the sand 71.68

First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 73.73
Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 75.72

First support is last Friday's low crossing at 69.50
Second support is last September's low crossing at 67.46

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Natural gas was slightly higher overnight as it consolidates some of Monday's decline. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bullish signaling that additional strength is possible near term.

If March extends the rally off January's low, the reaction high crossing at 5.804 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10 day moving average crossing at 5.356 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted.

Natural gas pivot point for Tuesday is 5.499

First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 5.680
Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 5.804

First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 5.356
Second support is the reaction low crossing at 5.227

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The U.S. Dollar was lower due to profit taking overnight as it consolidates some of last week's rally but remains above the 38% retracement level of the 2009 decline crossing at 79.71. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

If March extends this winter's rally, the 50% retracement level of the 2009 decline crossing at 81.32 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 78.79 would confirm that a short term top has been posted.

First resistance is last Friday's high crossing at 80.82
Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2009 decline crossing at 81.32

First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 79.72
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 78.79

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Crude Oil Daily Technical Outlook For Tuesday

With 4 hours MACD crossed above signal line, intraday bias in crude oil is turned neutral for the moment. Some more consolidations cannot be ruled out but upside should be limited by 73.94 resistance and bring fall resumption. Below 69.50 will target 100% projection of 83.95 to 72.43 from 78.04 at 66.52 next. However, break of 73.94 will argue that stronger rebound is underway and will put focus back to 78.04 resistance instead.

In the bigger picture, the strong break of medium term trend line support added much credence to the case of reversal. Medium term rise from 33.2, which is treated as a correction to fall from 147.27, should have completed at 83.95 already, on bearish divergence condition in daily MACD. Current fall from 83.95 should extend through 68.59 support towards next key cluster level at 58.32 (50% retracement of 33.2 to 83.95 at 58.58). Decisive break there will strongly suggest that whole decline from 147.27 is resuming for a new low below 33.2. On the upside, break of 78.04 resistance is needed to indicate that fall from 83.95 has completed. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.....Nymex Crude Oil Continuous Contract 4 Hours Chart.

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Oil Crunch Cometh....In 2015?

Discussing the probability of an oil shortage in 2015, with John Kilduff, Round Earth Capital, and Dr. Robert Hirsch, Management




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Crude Oil Market Commentary For Monday Evening

Crude oil closed higher due to short covering on Monday as it rebounded off the 87% retracement level of the September-January rally crossing at 69.58. The mid range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bearish again signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term.

If March extends the decline off January's high, September's low crossing at 67.46 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 76.25 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted.

Crude oil pivot point for Monday evening is 71.62

First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 73.97
Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 76.25

First support is last Friday's low crossing at 69.50
Second support is September's low crossing at 67.46

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Natural gas posted a downside reversal on Monday and closed below the 20 day moving average crossing at 5.474. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

If March extends the rally off January's low, the reaction high crossing at 5.804 is the next upside target. Closes below last Thursday's low crossing at 5.227 would temper the near term friendly outlook.

Natural gas pivot point for Monday evening is 5.499

First resistance is today's high crossing at 5.680
Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 5.804

First support is last Thursday's low crossing at 5.227
Second support is January's low crossing at 5.060

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The U.S. Dollar closed lower due to profit taking on Monday as it consolidated some of last week's rally but remains above the 38% retracement level of the 2009-2010 decline crossing at 79.71. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways prices are possible near term.

If March extends this winter's rally, the 50% retracement level of the 2009-2010 decline crossing at 81.32 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 78.62 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted.

First resistance is last Friday's high crossing at 80.82
Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2009-2010 decline crossing at 81.32

First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 79.54
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 78.62

The "Super Cycle" in Gold and How It Will Affect Your Pocketbook in 2010

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Where is the Oil Price Going....One Chart to Consider

From guest blogger Brian Hoffman....

Oil prices have staged a remarkable rally since a year ago, retracing almost 50 per cent of the drop from the US $147 high of 2008. The price chart for oil has formed a rising wedge during the last six months (see black converging trend lines in the chart below), which is potentially quite bearish since this type of chart formation normally resolves itself sharply to the downside.



Wedge formations are continuation patterns such that a rising wedge is a temporary pause in a falling price trend, whereas a falling wedge is a temporary pause in a rising price trend. During the formation of a rising wedge the selling pressure on prices has started to overwhelm the buying pressure resulting in the slope of the top trend line (resistance) tilting towards the bottom trend line (support). If the support provided by the bottom trend line fails to hold prices and a downward breakout occurs there may be a sharp and significant price drop.

Oil prices are facing resistance at about US$85 and they have really good support should they drop as low as US$60, which they may if there is a downward breakout from the rising wedge. This downward breakout may happen if/when the 50-day moving average crosses below the 200-day moving average. The last time the 50-day MA crossed below the 200-day MA the price then dropped from US$110 to US$32 (see October 2008 cross-over in the chart above).

A drop in oil prices from US$85 to US$60 would retrace about 50 per cent of the increase from the US$32 low of early 2009, which would likely exhaust the selling pressure as there is excellent price support at US$60.

If oil prices were to drop as low as US$60 and find support at that level the stage could be set for the next rally in oil prices. On the upside, oil prices would need to break through US$100 and find support at that level in order to gain momentum to possibly overtake the US$147 high of 2008. A move of that magnitude is unlikely in 2010 unless there is some fairly significant political unrest.

On the downside, should oil prices drop as low as US$60 and fail to find support at that level, then prices could continue lower with several support levels at lower prices. Oil prices have excellent support at US$40 dating back to 2003 should they drop that low.

Conclusion: Oil prices may drop to US$60 in the short-term if there is downward breakout from the rising wedge, which will impact oil-related investments. If prices drop to US$60 then wait for support to establish at level. If there is an upward breakout from the rising wedge, prices should find support at US$85 as resistance would then become support.

The United States Oil Fund, LP (USO-NYSE, US$35.64), an ETF that tracks the performance of oil prices, has a similar price chart to oil prices (see chart below) with a similar steep price decrease subsequent to a 50-day MA cross-over of the 200-day MA in October 2008 along with the recent rising wedge formation. USO faces resistance at US$40 and has support at US$32. Should the price of USO fail to hold at US$32 there is excellent support at US$26 dating back to 2000.




Brian Hoffman is an affiliate of the Market Technicians Assoc. and a member of the Canadian Society of Technical Analysts


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Oil Rises From Seven Week Low on Forecast for More U.S. Storms

Oil rose for the first time in four days as the U.S. mid-Atlantic region braced for a new winter storm in coming days and dug out from a weekend blizzard. Oil rebounded from a seven week low after the National Weather Service issued storm warnings from Utah to New Jersey and advisories for below-normal temperatures in the East that would increase demand for heating fuel. The weekend storm left almost 40 inches of snow in some places and shut government offices today in Washington.

“The cold weather is persisting here, and it’s not relenting,” said John Kilduff, a partner at Round Earth Capital, a New York based hedge fund that focuses on food and energy commodities. Oil prices also advanced amid technical support at the 200 day moving average of $70.72, he said. Crude oil for March delivery rose 85 cents, or 1.2 percent, to $72.04 a barrel at 11:02 a.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Oil settled at $71.19 on Feb. 5, the lowest price since Dec. 15. Futures have gained 79 percent in the past year.

The National Weather Service is forecasting temperatures will be below normal for the next six to 10 days along the Eastern Coast, from Florida to Maine. “A very wintry and unseasonably cold week remains on tap from the southern plains and Midwest to the Northeast and mid-Atlantic,” said Jim Rouiller, a senior energy meteorologist at private forecaster Planalytics Inc., in Wayne, Pennsylvania. The new storm may reach “crippling proportions from Washington and Philadelphia to New York City and possibly Boston by Wednesday”....Read the entire article.


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Crude Oil Market Commentary For Monday Evening

Crude oil was steady to slightly higher overnight as it consolidates some of last Friday's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging and have turned bearish again signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term.

If March extends last week's decline, last September's low crossing at 67.46 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 76.22 would confirm that a short term low has been posted.

Monday's pivot point, our line in the sand is 71.54

First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 73.90
Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 76.22

First support is last Friday's low crossing at 69.50
Second support is last September's low crossing at 67.46

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Natural gas was higher overnight as it extends last Friday's close above the 20 day moving average crossing at 5.484. Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling that additional strength is possible near term.

If March extends the overnight rally, the reaction high crossing at 5.804 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10 day moving average crossing at 5.278 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted.

Natural gas pivot point for Monday is 5.499

First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 5.680
Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 5.804

First support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 5.484
Second support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 5.378

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The U.S. Dollar was lower due to profit taking overnight as it consolidates some of last week's rally but remains above the 38% retracement level of the 2009 decline crossing at 79.71. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

If March extends this winter's rally, the 50% retracement level of the 2009 decline crossing at 81.32 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 78.63 would confirm that a short term top has been posted.

First resistance is last Friday's high crossing at 80.82
Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2009 decline crossing at 81.32

First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 79.55
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 78.63

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Crude Oil Technical Outlook For Monday Morning

Crude oil continues to stay in tight range above 69.50 low made last week but after all, intraday bias remains on the downside with 73.94 minor resistance intact. Deeper decline is still expected to 100% projection of 83.95 to 72.43 from 78.04 at 66.52 next. On the upside, above 73.94 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral and bring more consolidations. But upside should be limited below 78.04 resistance and bring fall resumption.

In the bigger picture, the strong break of medium term trend line support added much credence to the case of reversal. Medium term rise from 33.2, which is treated as a correction to fall from 147.27, should have completed at 83.95 already, on bearish divergence condition in daily MACD. Current fall from 83.95 should extend through 68.59 support towards next key cluster level at 58.32 (50% retracement of 33.2 to 83.95 at 58.58). Decisive break there will strongly suggest that whole decline from 147.27 is resuming for a new low below 33.2. On the upside, break of 78.04 resistance is needed to indicate that fall from 83.95 has completed. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.....Nymex Crude Oil Continuous Contract 4 Hours Chart.

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