Crude Oil Daily Technical Outlook For Thursday

Crude oil's choppy rise from 69.50 is still in progress and further rebound cannot be ruled out. But after all, there is no confirmation of reversal yet as long as 78.04 resistance holds. Below 72.60 minor support will suggest that recovery from 69.50 has completed and flip intraday bias back to the down side for retesting this support first. However, break of 78.04 will argue that whole fall from 83.95 has finished and will bring stronger rebound instead.

In the bigger picture, prior break of medium term trend line support added much credence to the case of reversal. Medium term rise from 33.2, which is treated as a correction to fall from 147.27, should have completed at 83.95 already, on bearish divergence condition in daily MACD. Current fall from 83.95 should extend through 68.59 support towards next key cluster level at 58.32 (50% retracement of 33.2 to 83.95 at 58.58). Decisive break there will strongly suggest that whole decline from 147.27 is resuming for a new low below 33.2. On the upside, break of 78.04 resistance is needed to confirm that fall from 83.95 has completed. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.....Nymex Crude Oil Continuous Contract 4 Hours Chart.

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Where is Crude Oil Headed on Thursday?

CNBC's Sharon Epperson discusses the day's activity in the commodities markets, and looks ahead to where oil is likely headed tomorrow.





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Crude Oil Closes Higher, Bulls Target 75.45 to Prove Their Case

Crude oil closed higher on Wednesday and above the 10 day moving average crossing at 73.94 as it extends this week's rebounded. Winter weather across the Northeast along with a rebound in the Dollar helped to underpin today's rally. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday.

Stochastics and the RSI are turning bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 75.45 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted. If March renews the decline off January's high, September's low crossing at 67.46 is the next downside target.

First resistance is today's high crossing at 74.97
Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 75.45

First support is last Friday's low crossing at 69.50
Second support is September's low crossing at 67.46

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Natural gas closed higher due to short covering on Wednesday but remains below the 10 day moving average crossing at 5.350. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bearish hinting that sideways to lower prices are possible near term.

Closes below last Thursday's low crossing at 5.227 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted. If March renews the rally off January's low, the reaction high crossing at 5.804 is the next upside target.

First resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 5.454
Second resistance is Monday's high crossing at 5.680

First support is last Thursday's low crossing at 5.227
Second support is January's low crossing at 5.060

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The U.S. Dollar posted an inside day with a higher close on Wednesday ending a two day correction off last Friday's high. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning bearish signaling that a short term top might be in or is near.

Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 78.93 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted. If March extends this winter's rally, the 50% retracement level of the 2009-2010 decline crossing at 81.32 is the next upside target.

First resistance is last Friday's high crossing at 80.82
Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2009-2010 decline crossing at 81.32

First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 79.81
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 78.93


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New Video: Is This a Repeat performance....Dow in 2010 = Dow of 1929, a Video Analysis

There is never any shortage of chart comparisons between recent and current recessions and it's time we make our own in todays short video analysis.

Today we examine the crash of 1929 and the similarities to today’s Dow. This video is not meant to scare anyone, but to educate investors and traders of the possibilities that may exist in today’s market.

We could be, repeat, could be very close to a tipping point similar to that of 1930 when the Dow had ended a 50% correction to the upside. I invite you to watch my latest video and see what makes sense to you.

Just click here to watch the video and as always our videos are free to watch and there are no registration requirements. If you agree or disagree with this video please feel free to comment.

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Crude Oil Rises as U.S. Targets Iranian Guard With Sanctions

Oil rose for a third day as the U.S. froze assets of four companies connected with Iran, heightening tensions with OPEC’s second largest crude producer. Futures increased as much as 1.7 percent as the Treasury Department announced the restrictions on the companies and one individual with links to Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. The U.S. has accused the Guard of developing weapons of mass destruction and supporting terrorism.

“It’s an escalation, but we’ve been escalating in baby steps for a long time,” said Michael Lynch, president of Strategic Energy & Economic Research in Winchester, Massachusetts. “What the Iranians are more worried about is the degree of unrest internally, which is not affected by these sanctions.” Crude oil for March delivery rose $1.05, or 1.4 percent, to $74.80 a barrel at 2:06 p.m. on New York Mercantile Exchange. Futures have lost 5.8 percent this year.

The U.S. has been trying to rally reluctant countries, especially China, to sanction Iran as the government in Tehran resists pressure to scale back its uranium enrichment work. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has signaled the U.S. wants to target the Revolutionary Guard, an elite military branch with extensive business interests. Iran already is subject to United Nations Security Council restrictions, including a 2007 resolution freezing assets and banning travel for some Revolutionary Guard-affiliated companies and officials. The Iranian government maintains that its nuclear development work is a legitimate effort to build a civilian power industry.....


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Could The Crude Oil Bulls Have The Advantage? Here's Wednesday's Numbers

Crude oil was steady to slightly higher due to short covering overnight as it extends the rebound off last Friday's low. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 75.43 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted. If March renews last week's decline, last September's low crossing at 67.46 is the next downside target.

Crude oil pivot point, our line in the sand is 73.07

First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 74.30
Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 75.43

First support is last Friday's low crossing at 69.50
Second support is last September's low crossing at 67.46

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Natural gas was higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates some of Tuesday's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term.

If March extends Tuesday's decline, the reaction low crossing at 5.227 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 5.456 would temper the near term bearish outlook.

Wednesday's pivot point for natural gas is 5.339

First resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 5.456
Second resistance is Monday's high crossing at 5.680

First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 5.330
Second support is the reaction low crossing at 5.227

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The U.S. Dollar was lower due to profit taking overnight as it consolidates some of last week's rally but remains above the 38% retracement level of the 2009 decline crossing at 79.71. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning bearish signaling that a short term top is in or is near.

Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 78.92 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted. If March renews this winter's rally, the 50% retracement level of the 2009-decline crossing at 81.32 is the next upside target.

First resistance is last Friday's high crossing at 80.82
Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2009 decline crossing at 81.32

First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 79.79
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 78.92


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Crude Oil Technical Outlook For Wednesday Morning

Crude oil's rebound from 69.50 extends further and further rally cannot be ruled out. Nevertheless, there is no confirmation of reversal yet as long as 78.04 resistance holds. Below 71.3 minor support will suggest that recovery from 69.50 has completed and flip intraday bias back to the down side for retesting this support first. However, break of 78.04 will argue that whole fall from 83.95 has finished and will bring stronger rebound instead.

In the bigger picture, prior break of medium term trend line support added much credence to the case of reversal. Medium term rise from 33.2, which is treated as a correction to fall from 147.27, should have completed at 83.95 already, on bearish divergence condition in daily MACD. Current fall from 83.95 should extend through 68.59 support towards next key cluster level at 58.32 (50% retracement of 33.2 to 83.95 at 58.58). Decisive break there will strongly suggest that whole decline from 147.27 is resuming for a new low below 33.2. On the upside, break of 78.04 resistance is needed to indicate that fall from 83.95 has completed. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.....Nymex Crude Oil Continuous Contract 4 Hours Chart.


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Oil Falls After Industry Report Shows Bigger Than Expected Supply Increase

Oil fell in New York after an industry report showed crude and gasoline stockpiles in the U.S. increased last week, indicating demand from the largest energy consuming country may be weak. Oil declined after the American Petroleum Institute said crude inventories rose to the highest since October last year and gasoline supplies reached the highest since March 1999. An Energy Department report due Feb. 12 may also show stockpiles increased, according to a Bloomberg News survey of analysts.

“There is plenty of oil out there,” said Peter McGuire, a managing director at CWA Global Markets Pty in Sydney. “There is no shortage of supply and demand is relatively weak.” Crude oil for March delivery dropped as much as 45 cents, or 0.6 percent, to $73.30 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. It was at $73.48 at 9:53 a.m. Singapore time. Yesterday, the contract rose 2.6 percent, the most in a week, to settle at $73.75. Futures have lost more than 7 percent this year.

U.S. crude stockpiles gained 7.2 million barrels to 337.6 million in the week to Feb. 5, according to the API. Gasoline supplies rebounded 1.6 million barrels to 228.8 million. The Energy Department’s weekly report may show crude inventories rising by 1.5 million barrels and gasoline by 300,000 barrels, based on the median of analyst estimates.....Read the entire article.


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Greece Rescue Package Sends Crude Oil Higher

Crude oil closed higher on optimism over a financial rescue package for Greece on Tuesday as it extended the rebounded off the 87% retracement level of the September-January rally crossing at 69.58. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday.

Stochastics and the RSI are diverging but are turning neutral with today's rally signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 75.80 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted. If March extends the decline off January's high, September's low crossing at 67.46 is the next downside target.

Tuesday evening pivot point for crude oil is 73.10

First resistance is today's high crossing at 74.15
Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 75.80

First support is last Friday's low crossing at 69.50
Second support is September's low crossing at 67.46

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Natural gas closed lower on Tuesday and below the 10 day moving average crossing at 5.343 following yesterday's downside reversal. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish hinting that sideways to lower prices are possible near term.

Closes below last Thursday's low crossing at 5.227 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted. If March extends the rally off January's low, the reaction high crossing at 5.804 is the next upside target.

Natural gas pivot point for Tuesday evening is 5.352

First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 5.680
Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 5.804

First support is last Thursday's low crossing at 5.227
Second support is January's low crossing at 5.060

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The U.S. Dollar closed lower due to profit taking on Tuesday as it consolidated some of last week's rally but remains above the 38% retracement level of the 2009-2010 decline crossing at 79.71. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways prices are possible near term.

If March extends this winter's rally, the 50% retracement level of the 2009-2010 decline crossing at 81.32 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 78.77 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted.

First resistance is last Friday's high crossing at 80.82
Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2009-2010 decline crossing at 81.32

First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 79.69
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 78.77

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Crude Oil Rises a Second Day as Dollar Weakens Against Euro, Equities Gain

Crude oil rose for a second day as the dollar weakened against the euro, increasing the appeal of commodities as an alternative investment, and equities advanced. Oil gained as much as 1.9 percent as the dollar, which traded at an eight month high last week, fell for the first time since Feb. 2 amid speculation European officials meeting this week will assist Greece in tackling its budget deficit. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index also rose on the outlook for Greece.

“It looks like the rebound of the dollar is weakening a bit, and that’s what’s driving oil to the largest extent right now,” said Kyle Cooper, a managing director at energy consultant IAF Advisors in Houston. “The dollar and equities are certainly having a significant impact.” Crude oil for March delivery rose $1.17, or 1.6 percent, to $73.06 a barrel at 10:26 a.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Futures have gained 85 percent in the past year.

The dollar lost 0.7 percent against the euro to $1.3744 from $1.3649 yesterday. It touched $1.3586 on Feb. 5. “The overall market is up because the euro has strengthened on speculation that the European Union will do something to assist the Greek government with their deficit,” said Andy Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates LLC in Houston.....Read the entire article.

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