Phil Flynn: April Fooling

President Obama is going to open up some off shore drilling. April fool! No, I am not kidding but as exciting as that might be, the oil market is not reacting to drill, drill, drill but to jobs, jobs, jobs. A weak ADP employment report and today super hot data coming out of China was enough to make traders forget about a bearish supply report from the Energy Information Agency and the prospects of perhaps maybe someday more domestic oil and gas production. Oil prices are soaring to the major resistance of $85, an area that if taken out would break us out of almost a 17 month trading range. Of course it is not a breakout until it is so let’s focus on what is driving that the madness.


First, it is the weak ADP employment data. After last month’s supposed snowstorm influenced monthly jobs report, the hopes were rising that perhaps this month’s jobs number released on Good Friday might be a blockbuster. Yet a disappointing jobs ADP report showed a decline of 23,000 private-sector jobs as opposed to the 50,000 gain that had been expected. This was very bullish for oil because it reinforces the belief that interest rates in the US will stay lower longer than expected as the fed will be reluctant to remove this historic and massive stimulus from the system. This in turn will weigh on the dollar and drive up oil demand built upon cheap money, not to mention some smoke and mirrors.


This news was enough to make traders eventually shrug off a bearish EIA report. The EIA reported that crude oil inventories increased by 2.9 million barrels last week. That puts us at 354.2 million barrels is 6.5% above the five year average. As for gas a surprising increase of 0.3 million barrels last week, putting supplies 4.9% above the five year average. Distillates fell by 1.1 million barrels but are still a whopping 19.6% above the five year average.


Oil is being driven even higher on strong manufacturing data out of China. China's official PMI rose to 55.1 in March from 52.0 in February which was higher than expected and showing that China’s economy is continuing to soar. We see strong growth that will send inflation surging in China and a government that due to pride and political reasons, may be reluctant at this point to try to slow things down. This is adding to the momentum in oil. Playing hardball with the Chinese over its currency means the risk of creating a bubble in China has gone up. The Chinese will more than likely wait too long to slow things down raising a risk of a crash that can have global implications. Of course that may not be today and that is a story for down the road.


Since the beginning of this year I have been saying that oil had the potential to break down to $40 a barrel based upon my longer term wave charts. Of course I also said that the possibility would be negated if oil closed above $85 a barrel. Yet I also said that the move would not be straight down and that instead of taking a longer term position it might be more advantageous to trade the ranges from both the long and short side. I said back then if you had to take a position on a long term basis back in January would be short with a stop above $85. Still I recommended also that this move would not be straight down and I thought it would be better to trade the ranges as opposed to a straight short position or long position. Along the way we have played oil from both the long end and short end.

I reasoned that oil was caught basically in two congruent trading ranges between $75 and $85 and a lower range between$65 and $75. Since we made that call oil has fallen as low as 6859 only to rally back up to a 17 month high. We have seasonal strength, global macro economics conditions, along with strong demand out of China, where the government is playing politics and therefore will be less likely to try and reign in inflation, has oil threatening to negate the longer term bearish formation. If oil closes above $85 expect another new trading range peaking around $95. That is only if oil closes above $85.00.

You can reach Phil at pflynn@pfgbest.com


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Where is Crude Oil Headed Next Week?

CNBC's Sharon Epperson discusses the day's activity in the commodities markets, and looks ahead to where oil is likely headed next week.




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Crude Oil Bulls Take Clear Near Term Advantage

Crude oil closed up $1.13 at $84.89 a barrel today. Prices closed nearer the session high today and hit another fresh 11 week high. Prices also closed at a bullish weekly high close today. Crude oil bulls have the solid overall near term technical advantage and have regained solid upside momentum this week.

Natural gas closed up 22.1 cents at $4.09 today. Prices closed nearer the session high today after hitting a fresh contract low early on. Prices also scored a bullish "outside day" up on the daily bar chart and closed at a bullish weekly high close. Short covering in a bear market was featured. However, if prices on Monday can show good follow through buying, then a bullish "key reversal" up on the daily bar chart would be confirmed, which would then be one early technical clue that a maket bottom is in place.

The U.S. dollar index closed down 36 points at 80.93 today. Prices closed near the session low again today and closed at a bearish weekly low close. No serious chart damage has occurred but the bulls have faded this week on profit taking pressure. The bulls do still have the overall near term technical advantage.

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Gold & Indexes Melt Up Into Earnings?

Gold and the stock market continue to trade within a tight range this week. While the long term trend for both stocks and metals are up, and the charts look bullish I am not buying at this level because the market is over bought.

Chasing prices higher especially after a run this large is not the right move in my opinion. I did mention last week that we could see stocks continue to grind higher going into earning season which is about 2 weeks away still. I think that could happen, and if the same thing happens which we saw last January with great earnings (which I think we will see again) then watch out for another drop.

In short, if earning are good which they have been and everyone is expecting the same this April, then the typical Buy on Rumor (pre-earnings rally) which is what we have now, and Sell on the Good News in April then all the suckers thinking the market should rally will provide some liquidity for the smart money to sell at a premium.

That being said, if the earning are not good, then people will sell on that news also because the market is just waiting for news to sell… It’s the exact same situation as last time, that’s how I am feeling about it.

Trading Bottoms in the Broad Market

The past few months I have been really focusing on buying dips in the broad market after I see a mini 3 wave correction. I use a mix between price patterns, volume, market sentiment, and market internals and of course years of watching how the market moves and evolves during times of economic expansion and contractions. This is represented on the chart below as the purple line.

This chart below shows one of my custom indicators which have successfully timed intermediate market bottoms 1-2 days before everything started to rally higher. This is one of the reasons we bought into the selling on Feb 5th and again on Feb 25th using ETF’s.

Because this is a new etf trading strategy and type of trading signal to be used in a bull market I still have to fin tune it a little more because I want to be sure we don’t get shaken out of positions to early which is what happened to a couple ETF’s we got into Feb 5th.

What happened was were buying when EVERYONE was bearish and panicking out of positions making it an extremely emotional time for traders and myself to buy into the market. This is not an easy task… I still have trouble pulling the trigger on these days and some times I just sit back in my chair and with one quick poke from my finger I hit the enter button to buy. My heart pounding just from that… but add few thousand followers on the pile relying on quality analysis and you start to understand what im going though. Not to mention the hundreds of emails with people telling me the market is about to crash, we should be shorting etc....Crazy times for sure.

Anyways, I will be provided these new signals for subscribers which is very exciting. Because my focus is on managing risk and keeping it as low as possible this will be a learning curve as I apply it to the service and set protective stops which is very difficult to do during a time of high volatility in the market. We can see the market move 2-4% in one day during these times so if we are trading the TNA 3x leveraged Russell2000 fund we could see our position drop 12% in one day. Bigger risk, bigger rewards as they say.



GLD Gold ETF – Daily Chart

Gold and silver are currently trading in limbo at the moment. It’s tough to say what’s going to happen here which is why I continue to wait for something with a high probability of winning before putting any money to work.

The daily chart clearly shows a multi month bull flag, ABC retrace, Reverse Head & Shoulders, and wedge. All of which are very bullish. It’s just a waiting game as I do not jump the gun on any move because the market has the tendency to catch everyone off guard and I don’t want to be one of them. Been there, done that to many times....



Mid-Week ETF Trading Signals Conclusion:

Keeping things short and simple, I think the stock market is in a major bull market. I am not buying anything until we get a pullback of some type. If the market unfolds properly we could have a great shorting opportunity (profit from a falling market) happening any day now, so that is my main focus at this time.


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Crude Oil Climbs to 17 Month High on Signs of Economic Growth

Crude oil surged to a 17- month high and gasoline rose on signs that global economic growth is accelerating, bolstering optimism that fuel consumption will increase this year. Oil advanced as much as 1.6 percent after reports showed U.S., Chinese and European manufacturing expanded, while pessimism decreased among Japan’s largest industrial companies. Government data tomorrow may show that U.S. employers added about 180,000 jobs in March, a Bloomberg News survey showed.

“The economic news recently has generally been good, which has changed the perception of the oil market,” said Sarah Emerson, managing director of Energy Security Analysis Inc. in Wakefield, Massachusetts. “An economic recovery is always good for demand.”
Crude oil for May delivery rose 88 cents, or 1.1 percent, to $84.64 a barrel at 11:16 a.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Futures touched $85.10, the highest level since Oct. 10, 2008. Prices climbed 5.5 percent last quarter and are 75 percent higher than a year ago.

Gasoline for May delivery increased 1.56 cents, or 0.7 percent, to $2.3228 a gallon in New York. The contract reached $2.3329, the highest level since Oct. 2, 2008. There will be no Nymex futures trading tomorrow because of the Good Friday holiday.....Read the entire article.

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Crude Oil Daily Technical Outlook For Thursday

Crude oil rises to as high as 84.70 so far today and the decisive break of 83.16 confirms that rise from 69.50 has resumed. Intraday bias remains on the upside and further rally should be seen to 61.8% projection of 69.50 to 83.16 from 78.56 at 86.92 next. On the downside, below 82.36 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral first. But after all, break of 78.56 support is needed to be the first sign of topping. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish.

In the bigger picture, crude oil is still trading well inside medium term rising channel and the rise from 33.2 is still in progress. Nevertheless, as such rise from 33.2 is treated as a correction to whole decline from 147.27 only, we'd continue to expect strong resistance near to 50% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2 at 90.24 to bring reversal. On the downside, though, break of 69.50 support will now indicate that crude oil has topped out in medium term already and turn outlook bearish.....Nymex Crude Oil Continuous Contract 4 Hours Chart.


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Rare Glimpse into MarketClub....Once a Year 2 Week Trial, Now Open!

I'll keep this short as I know you're busy, I just got word from my inside contact at MarketClub, that they're opening up the premium service for a no cost 2 week trial!

Just click here to get instant access here....

There are 4 powerful tools available to members that you, as a free trial member, will have access to. Smart Scan, Trade School, Chart Analysis, and Data Central will be opened up just for you.

The other major bonus about this trial is that their, customer support team will be providing UNLIMITED support! You can call or email for an instant response (I know because I've used it) to any question, comment or concern. They've added another support person (hired a month ago just to train her) to ensure that all calls and emails get answered as quickly as possible.

Again, here's that link and I'll get you more info a little bit later, but I'd recommend you jump on this now.


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Crude Oil Market Commentary For Wednesday Evening

Crude oil closed up $1.10 at $83.47 a barrel today. Prices closed near the session high today and hit a fresh 11 week high. Prices also closed at a bullish monthly high close. Crude oil bulls have the overall near term technical advantage and have regained solid upside momentum this week.

Natural gas closed down 10.6 cents at $3.867 today. Prices closed near the session low today and closed at a fresh contract low close. Prices also closed at a technically bearish monthly and quarterly low close today. Bears have the solid overall near term technical advantage. There are still no early technical clues that a market bottom is close at hand. Prices are in a three month old downtrend on the daily bar chart.

The U.S. dollar index closed down 44 points at 81.29 today. Prices closed nearer the session low today and scored a mildly bearish "outside day" down on the daily bar chart. The bulls still have the overall near term technical advantage. Bulls' next upside price objective is to close prices above solid technical resistance at last week's high of 82.52.


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Crude Oil Rises to 11 Week High as U.S. Dollar Slips Against Euro

Crude oil surged to an 11 week high in New York as the dollar declined against the euro, bolstering investor demand for commodities. Oil rose as much as 1.7 percent after the greenback fell against the common currency for the third time in four days. Prices slipped from the day’s highs after an Energy Department report today showed that supplies of crude oil rose by a greater than forecast 2.93 million barrels last week and that gasoline inventories unexpectedly increased.

“The market is focused on the U.S. dollar today,” said Sean Brodrick, a natural resource analyst with Weiss Research in Jupiter, Florida. “If we were trading on the fundamentals, the crude oil and gasoline numbers would be sending prices lower.” Crude oil for May delivery rose $1.01, or 1.2 percent, to $83.38 a barrel at 1:35 p.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Prices are up 5.1 percent this quarter. Oil traded at $83.45 a barrel before the release of the report at 10:30 a.m. in Washington.

Futures touched $83.76, the highest level since reaching $83.95 on Jan. 11. The May contract reached $85.43 a barrel on the same day. “The target du jour is $83.95, and if we are able to get through there, we will test $85.43,” said Addison Armstrong, director of market research at Tradition Energy in Stamford, Connecticut. The dollar fell to $1.3534 versus the euro, down 0.9 percent from $1.3414 yesterday.....Read the entire article.

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Phil Flynn: Springtime in the Oil Market

Ah spring.

The birds are chirping, the trees are budding and of course the oil market is rallying. Strong data on spending and a lot of springtime optimism set oil up for a big time rally, in fact the biggest in about 6 weeks. It is very possible that the rally would not have been as strong if it were not for the fact that many traders were absent as they prepared for Passover and the joys of spring break and Easter. That is not to say that the oil market did not have compelling reasons to rally because it did.

The euro rallied as Greece sold a 5 billion euro 7 year bond issue. Good consumer data and stories out of China that PetroChina will spend at least $60 billion in the next decade on overseas acquisitions in a bid to control oil and gas fields. We also had geo-political concerns arising from the terrorist bombing in Moscow and stories in the paper about attack scenarios surrounding Iran and yes indeed the market had a lot of compelling bullish stories. There was even more to rally about out of Nigeria from rebels promising more chaos. The problem for the bulls is that despite all those reasons to rally, the market remains range bound as it has been for months.

At the same time today there is a lot of bearish news coming out of OPEC .The Wall Street Journal reports that, “On Monday, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries indicated that it is moving to boost production, demonstrating again its commitment to trying to keep oil prices from rising too high. And the closely watched relationship between current and future crude prices is starting to shift in a manner that indicates investors may be betting on surplus supply in the future.” The Journal goes on to say, “Recently, however, a move to the top end of that range had some traders anticipating a breakout move to a higher price. That reflected a belief that the economy was improving and growth in developing markets would drain what had been plentiful supplies. But the breakout hasn't occurred.

And traders have become less willing to pay a high premium to lock in supplies months down the road. That can be best seen in the narrowing of the gap between the price of oil for immediate delivery and the price for future delivery a sign that buyers think supply may be more robust than demand in the future.” The Financial Times Carola Hoyos reports that OPEC, “has revived projects that they have put on hold when oil prices collapsed to close to $30 dollars a barrel last year. Abdalla El-Badri, OPEC secretary General said that all 35 projects that had been delayed or considered to be canceled are now backing on track.

The FT also reports that, “Oil prices could stay within the $70-$80 a barrel range for 10 years, the OPEC oil cartel said on Monday, arguing that lower prices would deter investment in new energy supply but higher prices would hamper economic growth. “For the next decade, nominal prices are assumed to stay in the $70-$80 a barrel range, while longer term they are assumed to remain in the $70-$100 a barrel range,” the cartel said in a paper for the International Energy Forum, the oil consumers and producers’ gathering that starts on Tuesday in Cancun, Mexico.”

For months we have been saying that oil is locked in a range. We also feel that oil is eventually going to break out to the downside. We feel that rising rates on the long end of the yield curve and the historic inverted 10 year swap trading under 10 year yields is sign allying a major shift in the global market place. The market place is signaling that we will have to soon start planning on a removal of economic stimulus or face the reality of problems in financing our debt. This is a long term negative for oil even as oil has its strongest seasonal upside tendencies in the beauty of spring.

You can contact Phil at pflynn@pfgbest.com and don't forget to catch him daily on the Fox Business Channel.

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