Stephanie Link, director of research for Action Alerts Plus Portfolio, says they're buying oil stocks that have big upside potential and ignoring high crude prices.
Just click here for your FREE trend analysis of crude oil ETF USO
Share
Friday, April 9, 2010
Crude Oil Daily Technical Outlook For Friday
Crude oil recovers strongly after drawing support from 4 hours 55 EMA. Nevertheless, with 87.09 resistance intact, consolidation from there might be in progress and another fall cannot be ruled out. But after all, break of 78.56 support is needed to indicate that crude oil has topped. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish. Sustained trading above 86.92 will target 90 psychological level next.
In the bigger picture, the strong break of 83.95 high confirmed that medium term rally from 33.2 has resumed. Nevertheless, there is no change in the view that it's the second wave of the whole correction that started in 2008 at 147.27. Hence, we'd continue to expect strong resistance near to 50% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2 at 90.24 to bring reversal. On the downside, below 78.56 support will be the first signal of topping and will turn focus back to 69.50 support for confirmation.....Nymex Crude Oil Continuous Contract 4 Hours Chart.
The "Super Cycle" in Gold and How It Will Affect Your Pocketbook in 2010
Share
Thursday, April 8, 2010
Crude Oil Is Set for a Second Weekly Gain on Economic Recovery Optimism
Crude oil is poised for a second weekly gain as concern over a Greek default subsided and stronger than estimated retail sales in the U.S., the world’s biggest energy user, bolstered optimism of an economic recovery. Oil rose for the first time in three days as March sales at 31 chain stores gained 9 percent, the largest one month increase since March 1999, the New York based International Council of Shopping Centers said yesterday. U.S. oil refineries raised operating rates to 84.5 percent of capacity last week, a six month high, the Energy Department reported on April 7.
“We saw some fairly encouraging retail sales data in the U.S. and that seemed to buoy market sentiment,” said Toby Hassall, a research analyst at CWA Global Markets Pty in Sydney. “It’s the latest in a string of encouraging macro data.” Crude oil for May delivery rose as much as 44 cents, or 0.5 percent, to $85.83 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. It was at $85.74 at 1:15 p.m. Singapore time. The contract is poised for a 1 percent gain this week, after climbing 6.1 percent last week. Futures have increased 8 percent this year.
Prices declined yesterday amid speculation Greece may default. The euro came within a cent of its weakest against the dollar in 11 months before erasing losses after Greece’s finance ministry said the country’s first-quarter budget deficit narrowed. European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet said a default is “not an issue.”
Oil surged for six days to April 6, the longest rally in three months, following reports that showed growth in U.S. jobs and service industries.....Read the entire article.
Get Your FREE Preview of INO TV
Share
Where is Crude Oil Headed on Friday?
CNBC's Matt Nesto discusses the day's activity in the commodities markets, and looks ahead to where oil is likely headed tomorrow.
Crude Oil Market Commentary For Thursday Evening
Crude oil closed lower on Thursday as it extended Wednesday's decline. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If May extends the rally off February's low, the 50% retracement level of the 2008-2009 decline crossing at 97.31 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 82.77 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 87.09. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2008-2009 decline crossing at 97.31. First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 83.87. Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 82.77.
Natural gas closed lower on Thursday as it extends this week's decline. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If May renews this winter's decline, weekly support crossing at 3.502 is the next downside target. Multiple closes above Tuesday's high crossing at 4.334 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 4.334. Second resistance is the 25% retracement level of the October-April decline crossing at 4.405. First support is today's low crossing at 3.857. Second support is last Thursday's low crossing at 3.810.
The U.S. Dollar closed higher on Thursday as it extends the rebound off last week's low. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. Closes below last week's low crossing at 80.52 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted. If June renews this winter's rally, the May 2009 high on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 83.34 is the next upside target. First resistance is March's high crossing at 82.52. Second resistance is the May 2009 high on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 83.34. First support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 81.18. Second support is last Thursday's low crossing at 80.52.
Today’s Stock Market Club Trading Triangles
Share
Baker Hughes: U.S. Rig Count Continues to Climb
Baker Hughes reported that the international rig count for March 2010 was 1,074, up 6 from the 1,068 counted in February 2010, and up 62 from the 1,012 counted in March 2009. The international offshore rig count for March 2010 was 295, down 6 from the 301 counted in February 2010 and up 14 from the 281 counted in March 2009.
The U.S. rig count for March 2010 was 1,419, up 69 from the 1,350 counted in February 2010 and up 314 from the 1,105 counted in March 2009. The Canadian rig count for March 2010 was 386, down 178 from the 564 counted in February 2010 and up 190 from the 196 counted in March 2009.
The worldwide rig count for March 2010 was 2,879, down 103 from the 2,982 counted in February 2010 and up 566 from the 2,313 counted in March 2009.
Just click here for your FREE trend analysis of crude oil ETF USO
Share
Crude Oil Daily Technical Outlook For Thursday Morning
Crude oil made a temporary top at 87.09 after hitting mentioned 86.92 projection target and pull back from there is still in progress. More decline could be seen towards 4 hours 55 EMA (now at 84.40) and below. But after all, break of 78.56 support is needed to indicate that crude oil has topped. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish. Sustained trading above 86.92 will target 90 psychological level next.
In the bigger picture, the strong break of 83.95 high confirmed that medium term rally from 33.2 has resumed. Nevertheless, there is no change in the view that it's the second wave of the whole correction that started in 2008 at 147.27. Hence, we'd continue to expect strong resistance near to 50% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2 at 90.24 to bring reversal. On the downside, below 78.56 support will be the first signal of topping and will turn focus back to 69.50 support for confirmation.....Nymex Crude Oil Continuous Contract 4 Hours Chart.
Check out the new "Trend TV"
Share
Wednesday, April 7, 2010
Technical Setups on Gold, Silver, Oil & Natural Gas ETF’s
This week has been playing out as expected with prices grinding their way higher and lots of sharp intraday sell offs and rallies which is indicative of a market getting toppy.
Seems like the masses feel as though they are getting left behind which is why we are starting to see the panic buying in the market (new money buying at these lofty overbought prices).
Each time there is a new intraday or daily high on the major indexes there is a renewed bullishness created as breakout traders and novice traders buy into the market hoping for the next surge in price. It is these volume surges of new money entering the market which the big guys (smart money) are selling into. You can see it clear as day light on the intraday charts as new money gets sucked into the market new high and then 2 minutes later larger waves of selling hit the bids. I did explain and show a chart of how this looks to members of the FuturesTradingSignals.com today.
We have some very exciting times ahead and it’s just a matter of letting the market unfold over time as we take advantage of these carefully measured low risk setups.
On to the charts....
GLD ETF Trading – Gold Exchange Trading Fund
You can see how this chart has evolved from pattern to pattern as it bottomed over time.
Today we had a breakout and I expect to see a pullback which is normal when prices gap up and breakout of a pattern. An entry point would be considered on a pullback if the proper criteria are met.
SLV ETF Trading – Exchange Traded Fund
Silver has always been much more volatile than gold which is why the pullback early this year was so strong and why the recent rally has also covered so much ground. As you can see silver has broke out above resistance but is now looking overbought. A pullback in precious metals is expected, or a pause at least.
USO Crude Oil Fund
Oil has made a nice move higher the past week but I feel it will pullback also in the coming days for a breather. There are a couple sizable gaps to fill all the way back down to $40.50.
UNG Natural Gas Fund
This natural gas chart looks very interesting. In the chart I am comparing the 2009 low to today’s price action.
From looking at the chart, natural gas is way oversold and in dire need of a relief rally. As you can see the sharp rallies which occurred just before both the 2009 and the current possible bottom look identical. This type of price action is very common to see.
Let me explain: When an investment is this over sold, meaning it has sold lower for weeks if not months, then there is a large growing number of traders looking to pick a bottom. Once these traders see prices start to move higher they all jump in thinking its “The Bottom”. Some times it is but more times than not it’s just a suckers rally.
General rule is, if everyone can see it, then its most likely not going to happen.. this is also part of the reason the major indexes keep going up. It looks like a great short and a tone of traders are in cash waiting to take advantage of the drop. But the market will keep pushing higher until fear its not going to pullback. That’s when the new money buys back in fueling the GRIND higher.
Anyways, so after all the bottom pickers jump on the train and there are not any more buyers and the price tends to drift lower scaring these traders back out of the position. Eventually a new low is made and everyone is shaken out of the investment. The crazy part is that just as they get out, the price usually turns around and does exactly what they new was going to happen –Go Up.
Most traders have the direction correct, it’s just their timing is off. My general rule is when I see something I wait another bar, sometimes I keep saying that to my self after each new bar until I am confident in the predicted move or price I can get into the position at.
Mid-Week Trading Conclusion:
In short, the bull market continues to grind its way higher. Unfortunately we cannot do much until there is some type of correction because buying way up here after a 2 month rally is outside of my comfort zone.
I foresee a 3-5% correction starting any day now so I am keeping my gunpowder dry.
Just click here to check out Chris Vermeulen's ETF Trading Signals Newsletter.
Share
Seems like the masses feel as though they are getting left behind which is why we are starting to see the panic buying in the market (new money buying at these lofty overbought prices).
Each time there is a new intraday or daily high on the major indexes there is a renewed bullishness created as breakout traders and novice traders buy into the market hoping for the next surge in price. It is these volume surges of new money entering the market which the big guys (smart money) are selling into. You can see it clear as day light on the intraday charts as new money gets sucked into the market new high and then 2 minutes later larger waves of selling hit the bids. I did explain and show a chart of how this looks to members of the FuturesTradingSignals.com today.
We have some very exciting times ahead and it’s just a matter of letting the market unfold over time as we take advantage of these carefully measured low risk setups.
On to the charts....
GLD ETF Trading – Gold Exchange Trading Fund
You can see how this chart has evolved from pattern to pattern as it bottomed over time.
Today we had a breakout and I expect to see a pullback which is normal when prices gap up and breakout of a pattern. An entry point would be considered on a pullback if the proper criteria are met.
SLV ETF Trading – Exchange Traded Fund
Silver has always been much more volatile than gold which is why the pullback early this year was so strong and why the recent rally has also covered so much ground. As you can see silver has broke out above resistance but is now looking overbought. A pullback in precious metals is expected, or a pause at least.
USO Crude Oil Fund
Oil has made a nice move higher the past week but I feel it will pullback also in the coming days for a breather. There are a couple sizable gaps to fill all the way back down to $40.50.
UNG Natural Gas Fund
This natural gas chart looks very interesting. In the chart I am comparing the 2009 low to today’s price action.
From looking at the chart, natural gas is way oversold and in dire need of a relief rally. As you can see the sharp rallies which occurred just before both the 2009 and the current possible bottom look identical. This type of price action is very common to see.
Let me explain: When an investment is this over sold, meaning it has sold lower for weeks if not months, then there is a large growing number of traders looking to pick a bottom. Once these traders see prices start to move higher they all jump in thinking its “The Bottom”. Some times it is but more times than not it’s just a suckers rally.
General rule is, if everyone can see it, then its most likely not going to happen.. this is also part of the reason the major indexes keep going up. It looks like a great short and a tone of traders are in cash waiting to take advantage of the drop. But the market will keep pushing higher until fear its not going to pullback. That’s when the new money buys back in fueling the GRIND higher.
Anyways, so after all the bottom pickers jump on the train and there are not any more buyers and the price tends to drift lower scaring these traders back out of the position. Eventually a new low is made and everyone is shaken out of the investment. The crazy part is that just as they get out, the price usually turns around and does exactly what they new was going to happen –Go Up.
Most traders have the direction correct, it’s just their timing is off. My general rule is when I see something I wait another bar, sometimes I keep saying that to my self after each new bar until I am confident in the predicted move or price I can get into the position at.
Mid-Week Trading Conclusion:
In short, the bull market continues to grind its way higher. Unfortunately we cannot do much until there is some type of correction because buying way up here after a 2 month rally is outside of my comfort zone.
I foresee a 3-5% correction starting any day now so I am keeping my gunpowder dry.
Just click here to check out Chris Vermeulen's ETF Trading Signals Newsletter.
Share
Crude Oil Futures Extend Decline After Inventories Increase More Than Forecast
Oil declined for a second day after a government report yesterday showed a bigger than forecast inventory gain in the U.S., the world’s largest energy consumer. Oil dropped as the Energy Department said crude supplies rose 1.98 million barrels to 356.2 million last week. Stockpiles were expected to climb by 1.35 million barrels, according to a Bloomberg News analyst survey. Machinery orders in Japan, the world’s third largest oil user, unexpectedly fell in February.
“The report was bearish really any way you look at it,” said Anthony Nunan, an assistant general manager for risk management at Mitsubishi Corp. in Tokyo. “So there was a bit of heat coming out of the market but it’s OK since were trading on expectations on the economy. And the economy is going to be going in fits and starts.” Crude oil for May delivery fell as much as 39 cents, or 0.5 percent, to $85.49 a barrel and was at $85.74 in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange at 11:55 a.m. Singapore time. Yesterday, the contract declined 96 cents, or 1.1 percent, to settle at $85.88, dropping from an 18-month intraday high of $87.09 made April 6.
Orders for factory equipment and items such as power generators, an indicator of business investment in three to six months, declined 5.4 percent from January, the Cabinet Office said today in Tokyo. The median estimate of 31 economists surveyed by Bloomberg was for a 3.7 percent gain. “Oil was getting a little bit frothy and probably out of line with where the fundamentals are at the moment,” said Ben Westmore, a minerals and energy economist at National Australia Bank Ltd. in Melbourne. “We had a rise in crude stocks, which is not an isolated incident. It does seem that the supply overhang in the U.S. isn’t being properly addressed”.....Read the entire article.
A Rare Glimpse Into MarketClub....Once a Year 2 Week Trial, Now Open!
Share
Where is Crude Oil Headed on Thursday?
CNBC's Sharon Epperson discusses the day's activity in the commodities markets, and looks ahead to where oil is likely headed tomorrow.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
