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Where is Crude Oil Headed on Friday?

CNBC's Sharon Epperson discusses the day's activity in the commodities markets, and looks ahead to where oil is likely headed tomorrow.





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Crude Oil Bulls Continue to Take on Chart Damage....Bears Hold Clear Advantage

Crude oil closed down $3.53 at $76.44 a barrel today. Prices closed nearer the session low today and hit a fresh three month low of $74.58 amid the EU debt crisis that is playing out and which has rattled most markets. A stronger U.S. dollar index and meltdown in the stock markets were main bearish factors for crude today. Serious near term chart damage has been inflicted in crude this week, to suggest a near term market top is now in place.

Natural gas closed down 7.5 cents at $3.917 today. Prices closed nearer the session low today, scored a bearish "outside day" down on the daily bar chart and scored a fresh contract low. The bears have the solid near term technical advantage. The next upside price objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $4.25.

The U.S. dollar index closed up 84 points at 85.04 today. Prices closed nearer the session high today and hit another fresh contract and 12 month high. European Union sovereign debt troubles will continue to support the dollar index. The bulls have the solid overall near term technical advantage. There are still no early technical clues to suggest a market top is close at hand.

Gold closed up $28.00 at $1,203.00 today. Prices closed near the session high today and hit a fresh five month high of $1,209.20. Safe haven buying amid the European Union debt crisis is fueling strong gains in gold. A stronger U.S. dollar and lower crude oil prices failed to limit the strong buying interest in gold today. A meltdown in the U.S. stock market in afternoon trading gave gold prices an additional boost. Gold bulls have the solid near term technical advantage and gained more upside technical momentum today.

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Crude Oil Tumbles to Nine Week Low on Stronger Dollar, Rising Supplies

Crude oil fell to a nine week low in New York as the euro dropped against the dollar on concern that Greece’s debt crisis will spread, curbing economic growth. Oil has lost 8 percent since May 3, the steepest three day decline since July 2009, as the dollar surged versus the common currency, reducing the appeal of commodities as an alternative investment. Moody’s placed its Aa2 rating for Portugal on review for a possible downgrade, a process that will conclude within three months, the company said in a statement yesterday.

“The oil market is being hit by a double whammy,” said Jason Schenker, president of Prestige Economics LLC, an Austin, Texas based energy consultant. “The rise in the dollar is pummeling crude. Also, there are global growth concerns which have increased because of the credit downgrades in Europe and the Greek debt crisis.” Crude oil for June delivery fell 71 cents, or 0.9 percent, to $79.26 a barrel at 9:58 a.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Futures touched $78.24, the lowest level since March 1. Prices have climbed 41 percent in the past year.

Brent oil for June settlement declined 56 cents, or 0.7 percent, to $82.05 a barrel on the London based ICE Futures Europe exchange. The contract touched $81.12, the lowest level since March 31. The euro dropped 0.5 percent to $1.2748 from $1.2814 yesterday. The common currency touched $1.2691, the weakest level since March 2009.
Standard & Poor’s last month downgraded Greece’s debt to junk and followed with cuts to Portugal and Spain.

‘Mass Exodus’

“You’re starting to see a mass exodus as people are expecting more problems from the European debt crisis,” said Gene McGillian, an analyst and broker at Tradition Energy in Stamford, Connecticut. U.S. stockpiles of crude oil rose 2.76 million barrels last week to the highest level since June, an Energy Department report showed yesterday. It was the 13th gain in 14 weeks.

Crude oil inventories at Cushing, Oklahoma, where the New York traded West Texas Intermediate grade is stored, rose 4.9 percent to 36.2 million barrels, the highest level since the department began reporting on supplies at the hub in April 2004. Oil for June delivery is at a $3.13 a barrel discount to the July contract in New York, the widest spread in more since Feb. 17, 2009. December crude is trading at a $7.08 premium to the front contract.


Reporter Mark Shenk can be contacted at mshenk1@bloomberg.net



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Crude Oil Daily Technical Outlook For Thursday Morning

Crude oil's fall from 87.15 accelerated to as low as 78.87 before recovering mildly. The break of 80.53 support suggests that whole rise from 69.05 has completed with a double top reversal pattern (87.05, 87.15). Near term outlook is turned bearish and further fall should now be seen to retest 69.05 support. On the upside, above 81.70 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral and bring recovery. But risk will stay on the downside as long as 87.15 resistance holds.

In the bigger picture, medium term rise from 33.20 is viewed as a correction to the whole correction that started at 2008 at 147.27. Our preferred view is that rise from 33.2 is in form of a three wave structure (73.23, 65.05, ?) and should be near to completion. Strong resistance is expected around 90 psychological level, which coincide with 50% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2 at 90.24 and 61.8% projection of 33.2 to 73.23 from 65.05 at 89.79, and bring reversal. Hence, even though another rally cannot be ruled out, upside potential should be limited. On the downside, break of 69.50 support will break the series of higher low pattern from 33.2 and will be an important indication that the trend has reversed. In such case, we'll turn bearish on crude oil and expect the then down trend to target a new low below 33.2.....Nymex Crude Oil Continuous Contract 4 Hours Chart.


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The Moment of Truth for Gold, Silver, Crude Oil & SP500

It has been an exciting couple weeks with the stock market slowly forming its top before breaking down this week. I have been warning everyone keep tightening your protective stops and to keep new positions small because once prices start to sell off they will most likely drop like a rock.

This week we have seen all the markets around the world breakdown and this indicates that there could be some large waves of selling in the near future. Traders and investors are very bullish on both stocks and commodities and financial market is designed to hurt the largest group of investors possible. So with over 53% of trader’s bullish and only 18% bearish (same readings as the Jan high) it makes for a perfect blood bath in the market catching the majority off guard left holding the shares.

Here is a chart of the SP500 ETF – SPY Daily Chart

You can see from simple analysis these repeated patterns in price and volume.



Mid-Week Trading Conclusion:

The broad market is now in the middle of a trend reversal and during times like these we can see wild price swings in stocks and commodities making trading much more difficult. But a few more sessions and we should see things smooth out and provide some great shorting opportunities before the market starts to head back up to make new 2010 highs.

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Crude Oil Bulls Take on Serious Chart Damage....Bears Take Clear Near Term Advantage

Crude oil closed down $2.95 at $79.79 a barrel today. Prices closed nearer the session low today and hit a fresh 10 week low amid the EU debt crisis that is playing out. A stronger U.S. dollar index was a main bearish factor for crude today. Serious near term chart damage has been inflicted in crude the past two days, to suggest a near term market top is now in place.

Natural gas closed down 3.8 cents at $3.975 today. Prices closed near mid-range today in quieter trading. The recent pause at lower price levels is not bullish. A minor bear flag has formed on the daily bar chart. The bears have the solid near term technical advantage.

Gold futures closed up $5.40 at $1,174.60 today. Prices closed nearer the session high today as traders stepped in to "buy the dip" and do some bargain hunting at lower price levels. A stronger U.S. dollar and lower crude oil prices did limit the upside in gold today. Gold was also supported today on safe haven buying support as rioting occurred in Greece due to austerity measures taken by the government to reduce is massive debt. No chart damage occurred on the downside correction.

The U.S. dollar index closed up 79 points at 84.22 today. Prices closed nearer the session high today and hit another fresh contract and 12 month high. European Union sovereign debt troubles will continue to support the dollar index. The bulls have the solid overall near term technical advantage. There are still no early technical clues to suggest a market top is close at hand. However, the dollar index is now short term overbought, technically.


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Did You Pull the Trigger on The Dow?

We have been concerned for some time that the market was in a rotational phase and that some key levels were being tested on the upside. The yesterday's action, Tuesday, can only be viewed one way, and that is negative. We do not expect this market to make a miraculous recovery to new highs and would not be surprised if we have seen the highs for the year.

In today's short video on the Dow, we look at potential downside targets that this market may be headed for. One of the key things to remember in trading, and this applies to all markets, is perception. This is why technical analysis plays such an important part in detecting shifts in market perceptions. Our "Trade Triangles" have done extraordinarily well in this environment.

Just click here to watch Did You Pull the Trigger on The Dow? and as always you can watch our videos without registration and there are no fees involved. Please take a minute to leave a comment and let us know if you pulled the trigger on the DOW.


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Crude Oil Tumbles Below $80 as Euro Drops on Greek Debt Crisis

Crude oil fell below $80 a barrel in New York as the euro dropped against the dollar on concern that Greece’s bailout may have to be extended to other indebted nations. Oil slipped as much as 4.3 percent as the common currency tumbled to its lowest level against the dollar since March 2009, curbing the appeal of commodities to investors. U.S. stockpiles of crude oil rose 2.76 million barrels last week to the highest level since June, an Energy Department report showed today.

“The Greek crisis appears to be spreading, which is raising concerns about the economic recovery,” said Phil Flynn, vice president of research at PFGBest in Chicago. “Prices have been supported on expectations that demand will climb as economies rebound. Now the focus may return to the market fundamentals and the huge oversupply of oil.”

Crude oil for June delivery fell $2.54, or 3.1 percent, to $80.20 a barrel at 10:37 a.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Futures touched $79.15, the lowest level since March 22. Prices slumped 6.9 percent yesterday and today, the biggest two day drop since Feb. 4 and 5.

Brent oil for June settlement declined $2.44, or 2.9 percent, to $83.23 a barrel on the London based ICE Futures Europe exchange. European Central Bank council member Axel Weber said today there is a threat of “grave contagion effects” in the euro area. The euro fell 1 percent to $1.2855, down from $1.2987 yesterday. The 16 nation currency touched $1.2804, the weakest level since March 12, 2009.....Read the entire article.


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