Crude Oil Posts Another Three Week Low as Bears Gain Momentum

Crude oil closed lower on Friday and posted a new three week low as it extends this week's decline. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If August extends this week's decline, the reaction low crossing at 70.93 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10 day moving average crossing at 76.31 would confirm that a short term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 76.28. Second resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 76.31. First support is today's low crossing at 71.62. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 70.93.

Natural gas closed lower on Friday ending a two day correction off this week's low. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bullish hinting that a short term low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.869 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted. If August resumes this week's decline, the reaction low crossing at 4.285 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.869. Second resistance is this month's high crossing at 5.249. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 4.477. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 4.285.

Gold closed higher due to short covering on Friday as it consolidated some of Thursday's decline. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If August extends this week's decline, the reaction low crossing at 1168.00 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 1236.30. Second resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 1248.80. First support is Thursday's low crossing at 1198.20. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 1168.00.

The U.S. Dollar closed lower on Friday as it extends this month's decline. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish with this week's decline signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If September extends this month's decline, the 38% retracement level of the November-June rally crossing at 83.83 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 86.59 would confirm that a short term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10 day moving average high crossing at 85.85. Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 86.59. First support is today's low crossing at 84.36. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the November-June rally crossing at 83.83.

Share

Commodities Tumbled as US Data Signaled Slowdown

Poor economic data in the US echoed the theme of slowdown demonstrated in Asian countries and this exacerbated risk aversion and accelerated the selloff in risky assets. Decline in commodity prices was broadly based. WTI crude oil price tumbled to a 3 week low at 72.05 before recovering to 72.95, down -3.54%, at close while Brent crude lost -3.56% to settle at 72.34 (intra-day low at 71.5). Base metals were generally lower with losses ranging from 0.8-3.8%. Gold slumped and broke below 1200 as a time as triggered by panic asset sales and ease in funding pressure in the Eurozone. The benchmark gold futures fell -2.67% to settle at 1206.7.

US ISM manufacturing index declined 3.5 points to 56.2 in June while the market had anticipated a milder drop to 59. Initial jobless claims surprisingly increased to 472K in the week ended June 26. This also gave rise to the highest 4 week average, at 466K, since the first week of March. This reading, together with weaker than expected ADP employment addition released Wednesday, suggests the US job market remains vulnerable. Pending home sales contracted -30% m/m in May after rising +6% in the previous month. The decline almost doubled consensus reading.

Signs of slowdown in economic recovery in the US and China (June PMI dropped to 52.1) raised worries over a double-dip recession.

Funding concerns in European banking system eased. The ECB lent a further 111.2B euro in its 6 day operation after a much lower than expected 131.9B euro 3 month operation conducted in the prior day. Banks needed to repay 442B euro in the 12 month LTRO. Meanwhile, a Reuters source said that Germany banks had fared well under the stress tests. The news boosted the euro which surged +2.3% to 1.2522 against the dollar at close.

Today in Asia, most commodities rebounded as yesterday's selloff was probably overextended. In Australia, the government and mining companies reached an agreement on mining tax. Australian Prime Minister Julia Gillard announced to cut the tax to 30% on coal and iron ore earnings, compared with a previous plan to collect 40% of all resource profits. At the same time, the current Petroleum Resource Rent Tax to all onshore and offshore petroleum and gas projects is extended.

Focus of the day is US employment report. Consensus forecast non-farm payrolls dropped -110K in June after rising 431K in the prior month. Unemployment rate probably increased to 9.8% from 9.7% in May.

Oil N' Gold .Com

Share

Crude Oil Closes Sharply Lower, Posting a New Three Week Low

Crude oil closed sharply lower on Thursday and posted a new three week low as it extends this week's decline. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If August extends this week's decline, the reaction low crossing at 70.93 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10 day moving average crossing at 76.88 would confirm that a short term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 76.29. Second resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 76.88. First support is today's low crossing at 72.05. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 70.93.

Natural gas closed sharply higher due to short covering on Thursday as it consolidates some of this month's decline. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold and are turning neutral hinting that a short term low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.876 would confirm that a short term low has been posted. If August resumes this week's decline, the reaction low crossing at 4.285 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.876. Second resistance is this month's high crossing at 5.249. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 4.477. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 4.285.


The U.S. Dollar closed sharply lower on Thursday as it renewed this month's decline below the 25% retracement level of the November-June rally crossing at 85.71. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Despite today's decline, stochastics and the RSI are turning bullish hinting that a short term low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 86.79 would confirm that a short term low has been posted. If September extends this month's decline, the 38% retracement level of the November-June rally crossing at 83.83 is the next downside target. First resistance is last Wednesday's high crossing at 86.71. Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 86.79. First support is today's low crossing at 84.96. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the November-June rally crossing at 83.83.

Gold closed sharply lower on Thursday and below last Thursday's low crossing at 1225.20 confirming that a short term top has been posted. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If August extends today's decline, the reaction low crossing at 1168.00 is the next downside target. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 1248.80. Second resistance is Monday's high crossing at 1263.70. First support is today's low crossing at 1198.20. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 1168.00.

Share

Crude Oil Falls on Concerns China, U.S. Growth Is Slowing

Crude oil fell for a fourth day in New York, the longest losing streak in seven weeks, amid concern the economic recovery in the U.S. and China will slow, curbing demand in the world’s two largest energy consumers. Oil dropped 0.4 percent yesterday, capping the first quarterly decline since 2008, after reports showed a slowdown in U.S. private payrolls last month and an unexpected increase in weekly gasoline supplies. China’s manufacturing expanded at a reduced pace for a second month in June, adding to signs the fastest growing major economy is cooling.

“Sentiment on the economy can be considered still negative, not so strong,” said Ken Hasegawa, a commodity derivatives sales manager at broker Newedge Group in Tokyo. “The stock market is very weak and that’s helping crude oil to fall.” Oil for August delivery fell as much as $1, or 1.3 percent, to $74.63 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. It was at $74.95 at 1:13 p.m. in Singapore. Yesterday, the contract decreased 31 cents to $75.63. Futures, down about 6 percent this year, lost 9.7 percent in the second quarter. The market is in its longest pullback since a six day drop through May 18.....Read the entire article.

Get Started Trading Now....With 10 FREE Trading Lessons

Share

Crude Oil Bears Gain Momentum, Extend Tuesday's Decline

Crude oil closed lower on Wednesday as it extends yesterday's decline below the 20 day moving average crossing at 76.47. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. Closes below last week's low crossing at 75.17 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. If August renews the rally off May's low, the 62% retracement level of last month's decline crossing at 81.13 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 77.43. Second resistance is Monday's high crossing at 79.38. First support is today's low crossing at 74.39. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 70.93.

Natural gas closed higher due to short covering on Wednesday as it consolidates some of this month's decline. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that additional weakness is possible near term. If August extends this week's decline, the reaction low crossing at 4.285 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.871 would temper the near term bearish outlook. First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 4.841. Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.871. First support is today's low crossing at 4.477. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 4.285.

The U.S. Dollar closed slightly lower on Wednesday as it consolidates around the 25% retracement level of the November-June rally crossing at 85.71. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bullish hinting that a short term low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 86.93 would confirm that a short term low has been posted. If September renews this month's decline, the 38% retracement level of the November-June rally crossing at 83.83 is the next downside target. First resistance is last Wednesday's high crossing at 86.71. Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 86.93. First support is last Monday's low crossing at 85.36. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the November-June rally crossing at 83.83.

Gold closed higher due to short covering on Wednesday but remains below the 10 day moving average crossing at 1244.90. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish hinting that a short term top might be in or is near. Closes below last Thursday's low crossing at 1225.20 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted. If August renews this year's rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will now be hard to project. First resistance is last Monday's high crossing at 1266.50. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 1227.60. Second support is last Thursday's low crossing at 1225.20.

What do Super Traders have in common?

Share

Phil Flynn: Firecracker!

Did someone light the fuse so the global economy could blow up again? Bullish dreams for oil exploded in a spectacular array of global economic worries. Forget about Hurricane Alex for the moment because the oil complex sure has. It is time to start worrying about the Euro zone, China, the end of the quarter and whether or not you can get reservations at the beach for the 4th of July fireworks. All of these issues played into yesterday massive stock market selloff. Traders worried about protecting any profits they may have and a terrible drop in consumer confidence sent the market on huge downward spiral. This raised fears of rising oil demand destruction and left traders to wonder what could governments do to stop the move and all was bleak as traders sold just about everything and went home early.


Yet good news today out of Europe and the fact that yesterday's selling was more than likely overdone is bringing the market back. The euro is a major reason why oil prices go up or down and it was under pressure in recent days as the market feared a liquidity squeeze in Europe due to the thought that the European Central Bank was going to have to lend banks more money. But it appears the banks took less money than thought. The ECB loaned banks 131.9 billion Euros (($161.4 billion) at its 3 month lending auction which was less than expecting giving a boost to the Euro and a boost in the price of oil.....Read the entire article.

Check out the new "Trend TV"

Share

Crude Oil Rises, Snapping Two Days of Declines as Dollar Weakens

Crude oil headed for a monthly increase, before a report forecast to show crude inventories declined in the U.S., the world’s largest energy user. Hurricane Alex has halted about 25 percent of crude production in the Gulf of Mexico and 9 percent of natural-gas output, the U.S. government said. U.S. crude stockpiles probably dropped 1 million barrels in the week ended June 25 from 365.1 million the prior week, according to a Bloomberg News survey before today’s Energy Department report. Crude was still heading for its first quarterly decline since 2008.

“Today’s Energy Department data may help prices,” said Hannes Loacker, an analyst at Raiffeisen Zentralbank Oesterreich in Vienna. “While the supply picture does not support crude in the short term, demand is becoming a bit better. Much depends on risk aversion, so if equity markets recover, crude will go up.” Oil for August delivery traded for $75.96 a barrel, 2 cents higher on the New York Mercantile Exchange as of 1:35 p.m. London time. Brent crude for August delivery was up 2 cents at $75.46 a barrel on the ICE Futures Europe exchange in London.

Crude has lost 9.3 percent in New York since the end of March and 4.3 percent this year. The commodity pared earlier gains of as much as 1.2 percent after data from ADP Employer Services showed the U.S. added fewer jobs than economists estimated in June. The contract has advanced 2.8 percent in June. The Dollar Index, which measures the U.S. currency against those of six major trading partners, fell for the first time in three days, losing 0.3 percent on concern economic growth may falter, stoking demand for commodities as an alternative investment.....Read the entire article.

New Video: How To Use Fibonacci Retracements


Share

Crude Oil and Natural Gas Pivot, Resistance and Support Numbers For Wednesday Morning

Crude oil was higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates some of Tuesday's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term.

Closes below last Wednesday's low crossing at 75.17 would confirm that a short term top has been posted while opening the door for a larger degree decline into early July. If August renews the rally off May's low, the 62% retracement level of May's decline crossing at 82.67 is the next upside target.

First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 79.38
Second resistance is last Monday's high crossing at 79.94

Crude oil's pivot point for Wednesday is 74.66

First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 75.21
Second support is last Wednesday's low crossing at 75.17

The Most Complete, Current Trading News!

Natural gas was lower overnight as it extends this week's decline. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If August extends this week's decline, the reaction low crossing at 4.285 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.865 would temper the near term bearish outlook in the market.

First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 4.829
Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.865

Wednesday's pivot point for natural gas is 4.610

First support is the overnight low crossing at 4.480
Second support is the reaction low crossing at 4.285

New Video: Does This One Chart Line Spell Doom for the Markets?


Share

Here is a FREE Trend Analysis For Crude Oil and ETF USO

Where is crude oil and the crude oil ETF, USO headed? Our Smart Scan Chart Analysis is showing some near term rallying power. However, this market remains in the confines of a longer-term downtrend Downtrend with tight money management stops. Based on a pre-defined weighted trend formula for chart analysis, USO scored -75 on a scale from -100 (strong downtrend) to +100 (strong uptrend):




-10.....Last Hour Close Below 5 hour Moving Average
-15.....New 3 Day Low on Tuesday
-20.....Last Price Below 20 Day Moving Average
+25.....New 3 Week High, Week Ending June 26th
-30.....New 3 Month Low in May
-75.....Total Score

Just click here for your FREE trend analysis of crude oil ETF USO


Share

Crude Oil Closes Lower, Below the Key 20 Day Moving Average

Crude oil closed lower on Tuesday and below the 20 day moving average crossing at 76.40. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. Closes below last week's low crossing at 75.17 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. If August renews the rally off May's low, the 62% retracement level of last month's decline crossing at 81.13 is the next upside target. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 79.38. Second resistance is last Monday's high crossing at 79.94. First support is today's low crossing at 75.21. Second support is last Wednesday's low crossing at 75.17.

Natural gas closed sharply lower on Tuesday as it extends this month's decline. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that additional weakness is possible near term. Today's close below last Tuesday's low crossing at 4.727 confirms that a short term top has been posted. If August extends this week's decline, the reaction low crossing at 4.285 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10 day moving average crossing at 4.884 would temper the near term bearish outlook. First resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.865. Second resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 4.884. First support is today's low crossing at 4.525. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 4.285.

The U.S. Dollar closed higher on Tuesday as it consolidates around the 25% retracement level of the November-June rally crossing at 85.71. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral hinting that a short term low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 86.97 would confirm that a short term low has been posted. If September renews this month's decline, the 38% retracement level of the November-June rally crossing at 83.83 is the next downside target. First resistance is last Wednesday's high crossing at 86.71. Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 86.97. First support is last Monday's low crossing at 85.36. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the November-June rally crossing at 83.83.

Gold closed higher due to short covering on Tuesday but remains below the 10 day moving average crossing at 1243.50. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral hinting that a short term top might be in or is near. Closes below last Thursday's low crossing at 1225.20 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted. If August renews this year's rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will now be hard to project. First resistance is last Monday's high crossing at 1266.50. First support is today's low crossing at 1227.60. Second support is last Thursday's low crossing at 1225.20.

New Video: Does This One Chart Line Spell Doom for the Markets?

Share