I Just Watched This.....New Forex Leverage Video

The rules have changed recently in Forex, regarding a number of key issues, but none as important as the leverage change. I've read some decent articles detailing it, but nothing has covered it like the video I just watched from Scott Downing at BigTrends.

Click Here to watch "The Rules of Forex Have Recently Changed"

He explains the new leverage rules and how he's been able to pull consistent pips despite the leverage change. It's also a full KIT of Forex tools for you here too:

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Natural Gas Weekly Technical Outlook For Sunday Nov. 14th

Natural gas edged higher to 4.269 last week but failed to sustain gain and pulled back into prior range. Initial bias remains neutral this week and we'd probably see some sideway trading. But after all, rise from 3.255 is in favor to continue as long as 3.743 support holds. Break of 4.249 will target falling trend line resistance (now at 4.4). However, break of 3.743 support will indicate that rebound is finished and flip bias back to the downside for retesting this low.

In the bigger picture, current development raises the possibility that fall from 6.108 has indeed finished with three waves down to 3.255, and failed 100% projection of 6.108 to 3.81 from 5.194 at 2.896. That is, it's merely a correction to rebound from 2.409. There is no confirmation of reversal yet and key focus will be on mentioned trend line resistance from 6.108, now at around 4.4 level. Sustained break there will likely pave the way the another high above 6.108 in medium term. Though, a break below 3.255 will turn focus back to 2.409 low instead.

In the longer term picture, question remains on whether 2.409 is the long term bottom already. Downside momentum since 6.108 is so far not too convincing and it looks like 2.409 won't be violated even in case of another fall. On the other hand, natural gas is still limited well below 55 weeks EMA and 55 months EMA and there is no confirmation of reversal yet. We'll stay neutral before a break of 5.194 resistance.

Nymex Natural Gas Continuous Contract 4 Hour, Daily, Weekly and Monthly Charts


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Crude Oil Weekly Technical Outlook For Saturday Nov. 13th

Crude oil edged higher to 88.63 last week but formed a short term top there and pulled back. Initial bias remains mildly on the downside this week for deeper decline to correct whole rise from 70.76. Nevertheless, strong support should be seen at 38.2% retracement of 70.76 to 88.63 at 81.80 and bring another rise. Whole rally from 64.23 is still expected to continue to 90 psychological level and above.

In the bigger picture, rise whole medium term rebound from 33.2 is still in progress. Such rise is treated as the second wave of the consolidation pattern that started at 147.27. Further rise could still be be seen towards 50% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2 at 90.24 and possibly further to 61.8% retracement at 103.70. However, break of 70.76 support will be the first warning that crude oil has topped out. Further break of 64.23 support will confirm and turn outlook bearish to start another medium term decline.

In the long term picture, rebound from 33.2 is not finished yet. But overall view remains unchanged. Crude oil is in a long term consolidation pattern from 147.27, with first wave completed at 33.2, second wave from there unfolding. Current development suggests that a breach of 61.8% retracement at 103.70 is likely. But we'll then start to focus on reversal signal again above 103.70.

Nymex Crude Oil Continuous Contract 4 Hour, Daily, Weekly and Monthly Charts




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Dian L. Chu: 131 = The Number of Years to Replace Oil

It seems the panic time for both green enthusiasts and peak oil pundits. According to a new paper by two researchers at the University of California–Davis, it would take 131 years for replacement of gasoline and diesel given the current pace of research and development; however, world's oil could run dry almost a century before that. The research was published on Nov. 8 at Environmental Science & Technology, which is based on the theory that market expectations are good predictors reflected in prices of publicly traded securities.

By incorporating market expectations into the model, the authors, Nataliya Malyshkina and Deb Niemeier, indicated that based on their calculation, the peak of oil production could occur between 2010 and 2030, before renewable replacement technologies become viable at around 2140.
The estimates not only delayed the alternative energy timeline, but also pushed up the peak oil deadline. The researchers suggest some previous estimates that pegged year 2040 as the time frame when alternatives would start to replace oil, could be “overly optimistic".

As I pointed out before, despite the excitement and hype surrounding a future of clean energy, a majority of the current technology simply does not make economic sense for regular consumers and lack the infrastructure for a mass deployment….even with government subsidies, tax breaks, and outright mandates. In addition, the supply chain of renewable technologies is not as green as people might think. Most alternative technologies rely on rare earths for efficiency. However, the......Read the entire article.


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Did George Soros Read This Book to Make a Cool Billion?

Adam Hewison, co-founder of MarketClub just returned from a fact finding mission fro China and returned more excited then ever about his time tested methods on trading these equity and currency markets and how he feels about how legendary investor George Soros made 1 billion dollars in the British pound shortly after his book on foreign exchange was published.

Coincidence? Maybe, but now you can decide and it won't cost you a dime.

20 years ago when his book "Right On The Money: The definitive guide to forecasting foreign exchange rates," was published, it was a huge hit with bank traders and the hedge fund crowd.

One legendary hedge fund trader, by the name of George Soros, may have read my book as he pulled a cool 1 billion dollars in profits from the British Pound in 1992. This huge profit attests to the fact that there are enormous profits to be made in the foreign exchange markets.

Now, for the first time he is publishing "Right on the Money" in electronic format.

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20 years ago my book sold for $125 to major banks and hedge funds everywhere. In today's dollars Adam tells me it would sell for double that amount, which would put it out of reach for most ordinary folks.

So why, you maybe asking yourself, is this e-book on forex available for free?

Here's the reason, Adam has been pretty lucky in the markets and have reached a stage in my life where I am very comfortable and the opportunity to make another six or seven figures is not going to change my life. His reward is going to be your feedback after you download my new e-book. We want you to see and fully understand how the foreign exchange market really works, not just for the last three to six months, but the last several decades.

AN OLD HUNGARIAN PROVERB

There is an old Hungarian proverb that I believe in, and Adam uses it in his book, "The past is the teacher of the future". Only by learning how the markets have worked in the past can you possibly be successful in the future. Nothing really changes in the world, if it did we would all be living in utopia and that is, as we all know, not the case.

THIS MAN CREATED FINANCIAL FUTURES

Leo Melamed, Chairman Emeritus of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, now the CME Group is largely credited with creating financial futures in the United States, here is what Mr. Melamed had to say in the forword to Adam's book, "Hewison's exhaustive compilation and explanation of chart data, covering 17 years of currency market movements, is a meaningful contribution to the understanding of foreign exchange and excellent educational reference for every serious trader."

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Musings: Energy Stocks Have Mostly Trailed the Market This Year

The results of the November 2nd election and the recent Federal Reserve Bank’s announcement that it was embarking on another attempt to stimulate the economy by encouraging bank lending through a program to provide more liquidity to the banking system, known as the second quantitative easing, or QE2, have driven the stock market to levels that existed immediately before the collapse of Lehman Brothers. Accompanying the QE2 announcement, the worth of the United States dollar among world currencies fell in value helping to boost the price of commodities including crude oil. Natural gas prices in the U.S. have not benefited from the weakening dollar as the product is truly a local one.

When we look at the performance so far in 2010 for the overall stock market, as measured by the Standard & Poor’s 500 Stock Price Index, it has been solid. The S&P 500 index is up nearly 10% through the end of last week, and is at a level exceeding that achieved in late spring this year. But when we look at the performance of energy stocks, they have tended to lag the performance of the overall stock market despite the strong impetuous from commodity prices.

If we look at what has happened this year in energy markets, there have been two primary events that have shaped the business, the Gulf of Mexico oil spill disaster and the recovery in economy activity following the 2008-2009 recession. While energy demand has recovered from the drastic drop experienced last year due to the recession, the combination of rising supply and continued subpar economic growth and energy demand in the industrialized economies of the world has muted the magnitude of the oil price rise. Crude oil is denominated in U.S. dollars globally, and its price is impacted by the fluctuating value of the U.S. dollar. At various points in time during the year oil prices rose or fell sharply in response to movements in the value of the dollar, however, there was no sustained move in......Read the entire article.



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Stock Market and Commodities Commentary For Friday Evening Nov. 12th

The S&P 500 index closed lower on Friday as it consolidates some of this year's rally. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bearish hinting that a short term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 1192.06 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted. If December renews the rally off August's low, the 62% retracement level of the 2007-2009 decline crossing at 1234.75 is the next upside target. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 1224.50. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2007-2009 decline crossing at 1234.75. First support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 1192.09. Second support is the 25% retracement level of the July-November rally crossing at 1169.37.

Crude oil closed sharply lower due to profit taking on Friday as it consolidated some of the rally off August's low. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 83.93 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. If December extends the aforementioned rally, the 87% retracement level of May's decline crossing at 90.82 is the next upside target. First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at 88.63. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of May's decline crossing at 90.82. First support is today's low crossing at 84.52. Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 83.93.

Natural gas closed lower on Friday as it consolidates some of the rally off October's low. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. Closes below last Thursday's low crossing at 3.743 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. If December extends the rally off October's low, the 38% retracement level of the June-October decline crossing at 4.362 is the next upside target. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 4.249. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the June-October decline crossing at 4.362. First support is last Thursday's low crossing at 3.743. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 3.500.

Gold sharply lower due to profit taking on Friday as it consolidated some of this year's rally. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices is possible near term. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 1360.70 would confirm that an important top has been posted. If December renews this year's rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will now be hard to project. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 1424.30. First support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 1360.70. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 1315.60.

The U.S. Dollar closed lower on Friday as it consolidates some of this week's rally but remains above the 20 day moving average crossing at 77.48. The mid range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 78.61 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted. If December renews the decline off August's high, the November 2009 low on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 74.21 is the next downside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 78.51. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 78.61. First support is last Wednesday's low crossing at 75.24. Second support is the November 2009 low on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 74.21.




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Ray Carbone: Crude Oil Close is Crucial

Ray Carbone of Paramount Options says the close in crude will determine whether more selling will come or the rally will resume.



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Bloomberg: Crude Oil Falls From Two Year High on Speculation China May Raise Interest Rates

Crude oil declined from a two year high in New York on speculation China will raise interest rates, damping growth in the world’s biggest energy consumer. Crude fell for the first time in three days and was set for a weekly drop. Equities slid on signs China is preparing to increase the cost of borrowing to curb inflation and the dollar traded near a six week high against the euro as Group of 20 leaders hold an emergency meeting amid concern that Europe’s debt crisis is worsening.

“For the time being $90 is going to be a very strong resistance level; above that, it’s too expensive,” said Andy Sommer, a senior analyst at EGL AG in Dietikon, Switzerland. “There’s a lot of uncertainty about Chinese monetary policy. If they tighten further, that has implications for the oil market.”

Crude for December delivery fell as much as $2.30, or 2.6 percent, to $85.51 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. It was at $86.08 at 1:15 p.m. London time. Yesterday, the contract rose to $88.63, the highest price since Oct. 9, 2008. Brent crude for December settlement fell as much as $2.16, or 2.4 percent, to $86.65 a barrel on the ICE Futures Europe exchange in London. The contract expires Nov. 15. The more actively traded January futures fell $1.59 to $87.51.

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index retreated 1.4 percent. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index fell as much as 1.8 percent and Standard & Poor’s 500 Index futures slid 1.5 percent. China’s inflation rate rose to the fastest in two years last month, fueling speculation an interest-rate increase is imminent. “People are betting on the Chinese rates and the discussions in the G-20 meeting are responsible for the current heavy selloff,” said Tetsu Emori, a commodity fund manager at Astmax Co. in Tokyo.......Read the entire article.


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World Markets Tumble, OPEC, IEA Raise Oil Demand Forecasts

G20 leaders released a communiqué after the summit in South Korea, pledging to achieve 'strong, sustainable and balanced growth in a collaborative and coordinated way'. However, financial ministers' refusal to join the US in pressuring China to appreciate RMB signals currency and trade disputes will persist for some time. More importantly, G 20 leaders spent a considerable time discussing Europe's debt problems, intensifying worries that the EU may need to bail out some of the peripheral countries.

Financial markets tumbled as Europe's debt crisis worsened and the prospect for Chinese rate hike has increased. The dollar rebounded against major currencies. In the commodity sector, the benchmark contract for WTI crude oil dived to as low as 85.48 in European session. Gold slumped amid broad based selloffs in commodities with the benchmark contract plunged to a 1 week low of 1377.3.

Despite short term volatility, oil agencies remained confident in the oil market. OPEC raised its global oil demand forecasts for 2010 and 2011 as consumptions in advanced countries should improve amid economic recovery. According to the cartel holding 40% to the world's total oil output, World oil demand will reach 85.8M bpd in 2010, up +1.3M bpd from 2009 and +0.2M bpd from October's forecast.

Consumption in the OECD has outpaced expectations as various stimulus plans have driven up economic activities. The forecast for world oil demand in 2011 has been revised up to 86.9M bpd, up +1.1M bpd from 2010 and +0.3M bpd from previous projection. The improved outlook for OECD demand is a key factor behind this adjustment......Read the entire article.


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