EIA: Tight Oil, Gulf of Mexico Deepwater Drive Projected Increases in U.S. Crude Oil Production

 EIA's Annual Energy Outlook 2012 (AEO2012) early release reference case, providing updated projections for energy markets through 2035, projects increased domestic crude oil production driven by development of tight oil resources onshore and deepwater resources in the Gulf of Mexico. Tight oil refers to oil produced from shale, or other very low permeability rocks, with horizontal drilling and multi stage hydraulic fracturing technologies.

EIA projects that U.S. domestic crude oil production will increase from 5.5 million barrels per day in 2010 to 6.7 million barrels per day in 2020. Even with a projected decline after 2020, U.S. crude oil production projections remain above 6 million barrels per day through 2035.




The AEO2012 early Release Reference case projects that onshore tight oil production will increase significantly, reaching 1.3 million barrels per day in 2030 and remaining above 1 million barrels per day for the remainder of the projection. As with shale gas, the application of recent technology advances significantly increases the development of tight oil resources. Projections are made for selected tight oil plays; at this point, not all plays have been, or are being, evaluated for the application of emerging production technology.

The AEO2012 also projects that continued development of deepwater crude oil resources in the Gulf of Mexico will become an increasingly important component of domestic crude production. Drilling in the Gulf of Mexico Outer Continental Shelf has resumed following the lifting of the 2010 moratorium, but on a schedule moderated by a slower permitting process with increased environmental review. Production in the Gulf of Mexico fluctuates as new large development projects are brought on stream.

The AEO2012 Early Release Reference case assumes that lease options in the Pacific and Atlantic will eventually be opened, but significant production from those lease sales is projected to occur after 2035. Most of the Eastern Gulf of Mexico Planning Area remains under a Congressional drilling moratorium (the Gulf of Mexico Energy Security Act of 2006) until 2022.  

Crude Oil Moves Higher on Reports of Shrinking Stockpiles

March crude oil was higher overnight and trading above the 20 day moving average crossing at 99.03. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bullish following Monday's rally signaling that a low has likely been posted. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 101.29 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted. If March extends the decline off January's high, December's low crossing at 92.95 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 99.03. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 101.29. First support is last Thursday's low crossing at 95.44. Second support is December's low crossing at 92.95. Crude oil pivot point for Wednesday morning is 97.79.

March natural gas was lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 2.844 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted. If March renews the multi-year decline, monthly support crossing at 1.960 is the next downside target. First resistance is last Monday's high crossing at 2.844. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 3.153. First support is January's low crossing at 2.289. Second support is monthly support crossing at 1.960. Natural gas pivot point for Wednesday morning is 2.514.

April gold was lower due to profit taking overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bearish hinting that a short term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 1701.60 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. If April renews the rally off December's low, the 62% retracement level of the September-December decline crossing at 1772.80 is the next upside target. First resistance is last Friday's high crossing at 1765.90. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the September-December decline crossing at 1772.80. First support is Monday's low crossing at 1712.60. Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 1701.60. Gold pivot point for Wednesday morning trading is 1737.90.

10:30 AM ET. Feb 3 EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report

Total Working Gas in Storage (previous 2966B)

Total Working Gas in Storage (Net Change) (previous -132B)

Was Friday’s Price Action in Gold Signaling a Top in the S&P 500?

Was Friday’s Price Action in Gold Signaling a Top in the S&P 500?

Friday morning traders and market participants awaited the key January employment report from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. The reaction to the supposedly wonderful report was a surge in the S&P 500 E-Mini futures contracts as well as several other key equity index futures.

The overall tenor among the financial punditry was predictable as wildly bullish predictions permeated the morning session on CNBC and in the financial blogosphere. However, after the report had been out for several hours notable independent voices such as Lee Adler of the Wall Street Examiner came out with information that suggested the numbers were an apparition of manipulated statistics.

I am not going to spend a great deal of time discussing the report, but the reaction to the news was decisively bullish on Friday. The question I want to know is whether Friday was a blow off top? In the recent past the S&P 500 has seen several key inflection points and intermediate-term tops form on non-farm payroll monthly announcements.

I follow a variety of indicators to help me decipher more accurately when the market is getting overbought or oversold. For nearly two weeks the market has been extremely overbought, but now we are reaching truly astonishing levels. The following charts represent just a few signals that the market is due for a pullback and a top is likely approaching.

Percentage of NYSE Stocks Trading Above Their 50 Period Moving Average

The chart above clearly illustrates that as of Friday’s closing bell (02/03) over 89% of stocks were trading above their 50 period moving averages. Consequently that reading is one of the highest levels that we have seen in the past 3 years. In addition, over 73% of stocks that trade on the NYSE are currently priced above their longer term 200 period moving averages. Another extremely overbought signal.

S&P 500 Bullish Percent Index Weekly Chart

The S&P 500 Bullish Percent Index is another great tool for measuring the overall position of the S&P 500. It is without question that the longer term time frame is reaching the highest level of overbought conditions in the past 3 years.

McClellan Oscillator Divergence with S&P 500 Price Action

The two charts shown above present an interesting situation regarding the divergence in the McClellan Oscillator and the price action in the S&P 500. The most recent example of this type of divergence occurred in October of 2011 and prices immediately reversed to the upside after several months of selling pressure. In fact, this correlation between reversals in the S&P 500 and divergences in the McClellan Oscillator works relatively well historically.

Clearly there are bullish voices arguing for the 2011 S&P 500 Index high of 1,370.58 to be taken out to the upside in the near future. Additionally, several market technicians in the blogospere have been pointing to the key resistance range between 1,350 and 1,370 on the S&P 500 as a likely price target. Obviously if those price levels are met strong resistance is likely to present itself. However, as a contrarian trader I have found that the more obvious price levels are the more likely it is that they either will not be tested or they will not offer significant resistance.

It is obvious that Chairman Bernanke and the Federal Reserve have embarked on a massive fiat currency printing campaign which has helped buoy risk assets to the upside. Through a combination of reducing interest rates on safety haven investments like Treasury’s and CD’s, the Federal Reserve has forced conservative investors and those living on a fixed income into riskier assets in search of yield.

This process helps elevate stock prices and creates the desired outcome for the Federal Reserve which involves the perception by average individuals that they are wealthier. The Fed calls this the “wealth effect” and they seem poised to insure that U.S. financial markets continue to ride upon a see of cheap money and liquidity.

Ultimately the Federal Reserve’s most recent announcements have served to help flatten the short end of the yield curve further while providing a launching pad for equities and precious metals. However, issues persisting in Europe could have an adverse impact on the short to intermediate term price action of the U.S. Dollar.

Right now everywhere I look I hear market prognosticators commenting on how hated the U.S. Dollar is and how Chairman Bernanke will not allow the Dollar to appreciate markedly in order to protect U.S. exports and financial markets. I think that the Dollar has the potential to rally in the short to intermediate term. Right now the U.S. Dollar Index appears to be trying to form a bottom.

U.S. Dollar Index Daily Chart

Obviously there is good reason to believe that the U.S. Dollar Index could reverse to the upside here. Whether it would have the strength to take out recent highs is unclear, but a correction to the upside not only seems unexpected by most market participants, but it seems plausible based on the weekend news coming out of Greece.

Monday morning the Greek government is set to determine if they will agree to the demands of the Troika in exchange for the next tranche of bailout funds. If the Greek government and the Troika do not come to an agreement, the Euro could sell-off violently.

Additionally there are already concerns about the next LTRO offering from the European Central Bank. The measure is to help provide European banks with additional liquidity, but there are growing concerns that the size and scope of the LTRO could have a dramatic impact on the Euro’s valuation against other currencies. Time will tell, but there are certainly catalysts which could help drive the U.S. Dollar higher.

Another potential indicator that the Dollar could see higher prices in coming days was the largely unnoticed bearish price action on Friday of precious metals. Both gold and silver have been on a tear higher over the past several weeks. Both precious metals have surged since the Federal Reserve announced that interest rates would remain near zero on the short end of the curve through 2014.

However, on Friday gold and silver were both under extreme selling pressure. The move did not get much attention by the financial media. The price action in gold and silver on Friday could be another indication that the U.S. Dollar is set to rally. The daily chart of gold is shown below.

Gold Futures Daily Chart

Obviously the reversal on Friday in gold futures was sharp. The move represented nearly a 2% decline for the session on the price of gold. However, as long term readers know I am a gold bull. I just do not see how gold and silver do not rally in the intermediate to longer term based on the insane levels of fiat currency printing going on at all of the major central banks around the world. The macro case for gold is very strong, but the short term time frame could reveal a brief pullback.

At this point, I suspect a pullback will present a good buying opportunity for those that are patient. However, I think it is critical to point out that this move in gold on Friday could be a signal that the U.S. Dollar is going to find some short to intermediate term strength. If the Dollar does start to push higher, it will likely put downward pressure on risk assets like equities and oil.

While Friday’s price action may not mark a top, nearly every indicator that I follow is screaming that stocks are overbought across all time frames. Pair that with the Greece uncertainty and LTRO considerations and suddenly the Dollar starts to look a bit more attractive. Ultimately I am not going to try to pick a top, but the evidence suggests that it might not be too many days/weeks away.

By: Chris Vermeulen – Get Chris' Free Weekly ETF Reports & Analysis
Co-Author: JW Jones – Get J.W.' Free Weekly Options Reports & Analysis

Crude Oil Finding Support, Bulls Must Defend $93.50 to Avoid Major Chart Damage

It would appear that for the short term crude oil is finding support around the $95.50 a barrel area. A close below the $93.50 level seen on December 18th would confirm a double top, pivot point formation which would cause major chart damage and risk trading down into the $84 a barrel level. We do remain longer term positive on this market, however it needs to move and close over resistance at $100 to get its upside momentum into high gear. With only our monthly Trade Triangle positive, we expect we will see further market consolidation in crude oil. Long term traders should be long this market with appropriate money management stops.

Crude oil posted an inside day on Monday with a lower close. The mid range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If March extends January's decline, December's low crossing at 92.95 is the next downside target. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 101.39 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 101.39. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 102.24. First support is last Thursday's low crossing at 95.44. Second support is December's low crossing at 92.95.

Check out our latest Video, Market Analysis and Forecast for the Dollar, Crude Oil, Gold, Silver, and the SP500

Run Your Own Profitable Oil Refinery By Hedging 3 ETFs

From guest blogger Richard Bloch.....

Want to profit from high oil refining margins? You can almost run your own oil refinery, hedging your output through three ETFs that track crude oil, heating oil, and gasoline. At a very basic level, refining oil is easy to understand. You buy crude oil and refine it into various products. If you sell those products for more than the cost of the crude oil, you make a profit.

Although there are many nuances to this business - different grades of oil, seasonal demand patterns, and dozens of different refined products each with their own price - there's a simple way to approximate the profit margin for refining oil. It's called the "crack spread," which gets its name from the refining process itself because you "crack" complex crude hydrocarbon molecules into usable products.

There are several versions of this spread. One popular spread is called the 3:2:1 crack spread. Here's how it works. Three barrels of WTI crude oil yield one barrel of heating oil and two barrels of gasoline. But the easy way of calculating it is to divide by three. Assume that one barrel of crude oil (42 gallons) yields one-third of a barrel of heating oil (14 gallons) and two-thirds of a barrel of gasoline (28 gallons) as shown here:

Calculating the spread

Here how this 3:2:1 crack spread was priced as of Friday, February 3

WTI Crude oil: $97.84 per barrel

Heating oil: 3.114 per gallon x 14 gallons = $43.59

Gasoline: 2.914 per gallon x 28 gallons = $81.59

Total heating oil and gasoline revenues: $43.59 + $81.59 = $125.18

Less cost of crude oil: $97.84

NET PROFIT = $27.34

Is that a lot? Let's take a look at that spread over the past 18 months.

Yeah, that seems like a lot, but it's certainly not as much as it was in September.

Three ETFs to profit from the crack spread

When the spread is going up, you'd do well to be buying gasoline and heating oil, while simultaneously selling crude oil.

You can do this through trading three ETFs in the 3:2:1 ratio outlined above. These include

• US Heating Oil Fund (UHN)
• US Gasoline Fund (UGA)
• US Oil Fund (USO)

These ETFs hold nearby futures contracts, so if you think the spread is going to go up, you might go long the spread with the following trade:

Long the crack spread

• Buy $10,000 of UHN
• Buy $20,000 of UGA
• Sell $30,000 of USO

I would adjust this position monthly to maintain that 3:2:1 ratio.

If you think the spread is going down instead -- as it did in September last year, you'd benefit from shorting the spread with the opposite trade:

Short the crack spread

• Sell $10,000 of UHN
• Sell $20,000 of UGA
• Buy $30,000 of USO

Riding the crack spread for fun and profit

How would this approach have performed over the past year? Well we can certainly assume that none of us can pick an exact top or bottom. So let's look at the spread chart again and make some assumptions about where going long or short this spread might have made sense based on trends at the time.

On February 1, 2011 you note the spread is rising, so you buy $10,000 of UHN and $20,000 of UGA while shorting $30,000 of USO. You'd treat each month as a separate trade so you can maintain the 3:2:1 ratio.

On October 3, the spread is appears to be declining. Now you short the crack spread by buying crude oil and selling heating oil and gasoline, once again resetting your position each month to stay within the 3:2:1 ratio.

Finally, on January 3, 2012, you switch and go long the spread once again, closing position on February 1.

This table shows the results for each month's trade, the profit of each position, and the net results.

The months highlighted in yellow were trades for being long the spread. The ones in purple are months trading the spread from the short side.

Here's a chart showing the net profit of your positions throughout the year.

No it's not perfect, but when the spread is trending, you can make a fairly decent gain. The profits really rose as the spread switched direction in October.

If you prefer, you might be able to use options for the USO part of your spread. These options are fairly liquid, but there are no options for UHN, and UGA options are too thinly traded to be of much use.

You don't need to be in the oil business to capitalize on the crack spread. Easy? Well no, nothing in the oil market is easy, but this could be a pretty reliable ongoing trade if you follow the trend.

Disclosure:  Richard Bloch has no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.

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ONG: Crude Oil Weekly Technical Outlook For Saturday February 4th

Here is the weekly call from the great staff at Oil N Gold.......

Crude oil dipped to as low as 95.44 last week but formed a temporary there and recovered. Initial bias is neutral this week first. On the downside, below 95.44 will bring another decline but after all, we'd we'd expect strong support from 92.52 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 74.95 to 103.74 at 92.74). to contain downside and bring rebound. Meanwhile above 101.29 will be the first signal that recent consolidative trading has finished and flip bias back to the upside for a test on 103.74 resistance.

In the bigger picture, pull back from 114.83 was completed at 74.95 already and medium term rally from 33.2 is not finished yet. We'd tentatively treat rise from 74.95 as resumption of such rally. Sustained break of 114.83 will target 61.8% projection of 33.2 to 114.83 from 74.95 at 125.40. On the downside, though, break of 92.52 support will indicate that correction pattern from 114.83 is going to extend further with another falling leg to 74.95 and below before completion.

In the long term picture, crude oil is in a long term consolidation pattern from 147.27, with first wave completed at 33.2. The corrective structure of the rise from 33.2 indicates that it's second wave of the consolidation pattern. While it could make another high above 114.83, we'd anticipate strong resistance ahead of 147.24 to bring reversal for the third leg of the consolidation pattern.

Nymex Crude Oil Continuous Contract 4 Hour, Daily, Weekly and Monthly Charts

CME Releases 2012 Product Expiration Calendar

If you are serious about trading energy stocks and products you need to post this in or on your calendar. One of the main reasons for failure for all newcomers to the commodity trading world is lack of understanding expiration dates.

Here you will find key trading information, including last trade and notice days as well as Exchange holidays, in the annual Energy Expiration Calendar published by CME Group.

CME Group offers the most extensive and liquid energy complex in the world, including Light Sweet Crude Oil (WTI), Natural Gas (Henry Hub), petroleum, and electricity products. Many of our contracts are benchmarks that set the price for these resources worldwide. From the world's largest industrial companies to financial institutions, our diverse universe of participants clear an average daily volume of 1.5 million energy contracts every day on CME Globex, through CME ClearPort or on our trading floor.

Here is the 2012 CME Energy Product Expiration Calendar

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Is The Double Top in For Crude Oil?

Only our longer term monthly Trade Triangle for crude oil remains positive on this market. The move today below the $98 support level puts this market in jeopardy of further weakness. A close below the $93.50 level seen on December 18th would confirm a double top pivot point formation, which would measure down to the $84 a barrel level.

We do remain longer term positive on this market, however it needs to move and close over resistance at $100 to get its upside momentum into high gear. With only our monthly Trade Triangle in positive mode, we expect we will see further market consolidation in crude oil. Long term traders should be long this market with appropriate money management stops.

March crude oil closed down $1.24 a barrel at $96.36 today. Prices closed nearer the session low today and hit another fresh six week low. Crude oil bulls are fading. Prices are in a four week old downtrend on the daily bar chart. The next near term upside price breakout objective for the crude oil bulls is producing a close above psychological technical resistance at $100.00 a barrel.

The gold market moved to its best levels since December 2nd, however it is at major resistance between the $1760 and $1800 levels. With our long term monthly Trade Triangle still in a negative mode, we cannot get excited about this market at the moment. We are not super bearish on this metal, however we just need further confirmation with the tools we know are successful in trading gold. Long term term traders should be in short positions in gold with appropriate money management stops. Intermediate term traders should be on the sidelines.

April gold futures closed up $9.40 an ounce at $1,758.90 today. Prices closed nearer the session high today and hit a fresh two month high. Gold managed gains today despite bearish “outside markets” that saw a firmer U.S. dollar index and sharply lower crude oil prices. Yet, gold rallied anyway on its technical strength. Gold bulls have the solid overall near term technical advantage and still have upside near term technical momentum on their side. A steep five week old uptrend is in place on the daily bar chart.

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Natural Gas Spot Prices Near 10 Year Lows Amid Warm Weather

 Natural gas prices have continued their downward trend this winter as a result of warmer than normal temperatures, ample natural gas in storage, and growing production. Population weighted heating degree days since November 1, 2011 are down 12% nationally from the 30 year average. Total working natural gas in underground storage in the lower 48 states was 3,098 Bcf for the week ending January 20, 21% above the storage levels from one year ago. Daily dry gas production averaged about 64.2 billion cubic feet per day (Bcfd) in January, up almost 10% from last January.

Click on the tab headers below to see charts highlighting factors affecting natural gas prices.

Spot Prices      Weather       Storage         Production       Weather Outlook        Futures Prices

Average spot natural gas prices for January were $2.68/MMBtu. Spot natural gas prices in January 2012 reached their lowest level in 10 years except for a 4-day period over the Labor Day weekend in 2009.


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Crude Oil Supply Gains Puts Crude Oil Bulls on Their Backs.....Again!

Crude oil futures tanked today after supplies spiked up by 4 + million barrels. This after the Bloomberg News Survey forecasted a 2.6 million barrel gain.

Crude oil for the past week and a half has lacked any real cohesive direction, in our opinion. With a Score of -55, it reflects a true trading range. We believe we are now at the lower levels of the trading range and would not be surprised to see a pop to the upside.

We still remain longer term positive on this market and expect to see it make some new highs soon, however it must move over resistance at $102 to get its upside momentum into high gear.

With our daily and monthly Trade Triangles in positive modes, we expect we will see further market consolidation in crude oil. Long term traders should be long this market with appropriate money management stops.

Crude oil closed lower on Wednesday and the low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term.

If March renews January's decline, December's low crossing at 92.95 is the next downside target. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 101.39 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted.

First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 101.39. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 102.24. First support is last Monday's low crossing at 97.40. Second support is December's low crossing at 92.95.

Here is a preview of the MarketClub Trade Triangle Chart Analysis and Smart Scan technology