Chevron CEO John Watson discusses where the biggest production growth is occurring globally and what his company plans to do with its $22 billion in cash.
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Tuesday, March 12, 2013
How to Find High Probability Trades
The last time we shared a webinar hosted by John Carter he gave out a trade for attendees to take, if they felt like it,
that netted John 86k. And he's hosting another webinar this week!
No promises on trade recommendations as he only takes what the market gives him, but I really recommend you sign up for this event for Thursday at 8 p.m. est.
Click here for Webinar Sign up
Here is just an idea of what John will be covering......
* His favorite options trading strategies,
* How to find high probability trades,
* How to manage options trades,
* How to trade options to generate wealth or income from any account size and more.
If you have decided that it's time to start making real money trading, make time for this event.
John Carter's "How to Find High Probability Trades"
No promises on trade recommendations as he only takes what the market gives him, but I really recommend you sign up for this event for Thursday at 8 p.m. est.
Click here for Webinar Sign up
Here is just an idea of what John will be covering......
* His favorite options trading strategies,
* How to find high probability trades,
* How to manage options trades,
* How to trade options to generate wealth or income from any account size and more.
If you have decided that it's time to start making real money trading, make time for this event.
Sunday, March 10, 2013
Silver Miners, Gold Miners and the Price Of Gold
Silver and silver mining stocks are front and center for investors and active traders. Because of silvers high volatility (large price swings) it naturally attracts a lot of attention.
First you have seasoned investors who are waiting for the right opportunity to get long or short for the next move. Then you have the active traders playing the day to day price swings. Finally you get the gamblers who are salivating over the potential to double their accounts and are riding the commodity on pure emotions (Fear & Greed). All these things compound the volatility for the investment making it headline news and what everyone wants to be involved in.
The focus of this report is show you where the price of gold, silver and miner stocks are currently trading and what to lookout for in the coming days/weeks. Below is a chart of gold but silver has a similar pattern and will follow or should I say lead the price of gold in percentage terms because of its volatility.
Gold Weekly Chart:
Gold has been testing its long term support level for three weeks. I expect we see price start to move quickly sooner than later but there is potential for it to tread water here until the second half of April. We all know the saying “Sell in May and Go Away” and as we get closer to that date we should start to see money flow into the “Safe Havens” being gold, silver, and miners. While this has not happened many times on the charts I am thinking beyond them and of what the masses are likely to flock to when stocks lose their luster.
Also if you have been following the price of the dollar index you know that its getting a little overbought and when it starts to correct the falling dollar should help send precious metals higher.
Gold & Silver Miners VS Gold Bullion Performance:
The stock market has certain chart patterns that tell chart readers what the holders of that particular investment is feeling emotionally. Knowing how to read these extreme patterns can yield some big gains and works for most investments types (stocks, bonds, commodities and currencies).
Without getting into the boring technical details precious metal stocks are starting show signs of panic selling which typically happens before a major bottom is put in place. A bottom generally takes a week or two for some type of bottoming pattern or base building to form. This is the most volatile time to be trading these investments so trade with caution.
Gold Miners Bullish Percent Index:
Bullish percent indexes are a great way to see how popular an investment is. If you do not know what a bullish percent chart is then you can look it up online and learn more. The way I read it is when it’s up over 75-80 it’s a popular investment and everyone is buying it. It also means it’s in a major uptrend. But you must be aware that when everyone is buying something once price starts to turn down you better be one of the first few out the door before everyone else runs for the door and price crashes.
It’s similar but reversed for investments that are below 20. Everyone is selling, no one wants to own it but once the selling momentum stops price should rebound and rally. Keep in mind this indicator is not great for timing, but confirms that what you are looking at is either oversold, neutral or overbought in the BIG picture.
Weekend Precious Metals Trading Conclusion:
In short, I still like gold, silver, and their related mining stocks. I am watching them very closely for signs of a bottom and will be jumping on that train when the selling momentum looks to have stalled. Keep in mind that all these investments are still in a VERY STRONG DOWN TREND and trying to catch a falling knife is not what I do. Waiting for momentum to shift is my focus as there should be big upside if metals and stocks can find a bottom soon. If gold breaks down below key support as posted on the weekly chart then the uptrend may be over and it will be time to start looking for short positions.
You can get my free weekly reports and ideas here at The Gold & Oil Guy.com
Chris Vermeulen
Get our Free Trading Videos, Lessons and eBook today!
First you have seasoned investors who are waiting for the right opportunity to get long or short for the next move. Then you have the active traders playing the day to day price swings. Finally you get the gamblers who are salivating over the potential to double their accounts and are riding the commodity on pure emotions (Fear & Greed). All these things compound the volatility for the investment making it headline news and what everyone wants to be involved in.
The focus of this report is show you where the price of gold, silver and miner stocks are currently trading and what to lookout for in the coming days/weeks. Below is a chart of gold but silver has a similar pattern and will follow or should I say lead the price of gold in percentage terms because of its volatility.
Gold Weekly Chart:
Gold has been testing its long term support level for three weeks. I expect we see price start to move quickly sooner than later but there is potential for it to tread water here until the second half of April. We all know the saying “Sell in May and Go Away” and as we get closer to that date we should start to see money flow into the “Safe Havens” being gold, silver, and miners. While this has not happened many times on the charts I am thinking beyond them and of what the masses are likely to flock to when stocks lose their luster.
Also if you have been following the price of the dollar index you know that its getting a little overbought and when it starts to correct the falling dollar should help send precious metals higher.
Gold & Silver Miners VS Gold Bullion Performance:
The stock market has certain chart patterns that tell chart readers what the holders of that particular investment is feeling emotionally. Knowing how to read these extreme patterns can yield some big gains and works for most investments types (stocks, bonds, commodities and currencies).
Without getting into the boring technical details precious metal stocks are starting show signs of panic selling which typically happens before a major bottom is put in place. A bottom generally takes a week or two for some type of bottoming pattern or base building to form. This is the most volatile time to be trading these investments so trade with caution.
Gold Miners Bullish Percent Index:
Bullish percent indexes are a great way to see how popular an investment is. If you do not know what a bullish percent chart is then you can look it up online and learn more. The way I read it is when it’s up over 75-80 it’s a popular investment and everyone is buying it. It also means it’s in a major uptrend. But you must be aware that when everyone is buying something once price starts to turn down you better be one of the first few out the door before everyone else runs for the door and price crashes.
It’s similar but reversed for investments that are below 20. Everyone is selling, no one wants to own it but once the selling momentum stops price should rebound and rally. Keep in mind this indicator is not great for timing, but confirms that what you are looking at is either oversold, neutral or overbought in the BIG picture.
Weekend Precious Metals Trading Conclusion:
In short, I still like gold, silver, and their related mining stocks. I am watching them very closely for signs of a bottom and will be jumping on that train when the selling momentum looks to have stalled. Keep in mind that all these investments are still in a VERY STRONG DOWN TREND and trying to catch a falling knife is not what I do. Waiting for momentum to shift is my focus as there should be big upside if metals and stocks can find a bottom soon. If gold breaks down below key support as posted on the weekly chart then the uptrend may be over and it will be time to start looking for short positions.
You can get my free weekly reports and ideas here at The Gold & Oil Guy.com
Chris Vermeulen
Get our Free Trading Videos, Lessons and eBook today!
Saturday, March 9, 2013
Are you using the "Squeeze Trade"
We have had a huge response to John Carters options trading video that we posted on Thursday. Because of some of the feedback and input that has come in John has decided to release a follow up video. Here's a little advice though, before watching the video get out a pen and paper. Personally I think you'll want to take some notes this time around.
Today's video will include more details on individual trades John has been doing. Including how he made 43k trading MA options. The video is only 13 minutes long so no excuses. Here is just a sample of what John will be covering.......
- Three (3) strategies to trade "The Squeeze"
- The secret behind 39 minute charts
- The "Porsche Trade Setup"
Whether you trade options as an expert or beginner we would love to hear your feedback so please feel free to leave a comment.
Just click here to watch John's video
See you in the markets!
Ray C. Parrish
President/CEO The Crude Oil Trader
Exact Setup of a 43k Options Trade
Today's video will include more details on individual trades John has been doing. Including how he made 43k trading MA options. The video is only 13 minutes long so no excuses. Here is just a sample of what John will be covering.......
- Three (3) strategies to trade "The Squeeze"
- The secret behind 39 minute charts
- The "Porsche Trade Setup"
Whether you trade options as an expert or beginner we would love to hear your feedback so please feel free to leave a comment.
Just click here to watch John's video
See you in the markets!
Ray C. Parrish
President/CEO The Crude Oil Trader
Exact Setup of a 43k Options Trade
Friday, March 8, 2013
Natural Gas....Is it time to trust the bullish Trade Triangles?
Today we are going to take a look at the technical picture of Natural Gas (NG.J13.E) and analyzing it using the MarketClub Trade Triangles. Natural gas found support at a double bottom level, has moved higher, and put in a weekly MarketClub green Trade Triangle, which is bullish.
If natural gas continues higher and breaks through resistance, it would put in a monthly MarketClub green Trade Triangle, which would be even more bullish. The MACD is on a buy signal and right now everything is pointing to higher prices for natural gas. This is a chart to watch, as big things look to possibly be in store on the upside for natural gas.
Click here to sign up for your own trial of the MarketClub Trade Triangle technology!
If natural gas continues higher and breaks through resistance, it would put in a monthly MarketClub green Trade Triangle, which would be even more bullish. The MACD is on a buy signal and right now everything is pointing to higher prices for natural gas. This is a chart to watch, as big things look to possibly be in store on the upside for natural gas.
Click here to sign up for your own trial of the MarketClub Trade Triangle technology!
EIA: Saudi Arabia was world's largest petroleum producer and net exporter in 2012
Saudi Arabia was the world's largest producer and exporter of petroleum and other liquids in 2012, producing an average of 11.6 million barrels per day (bbl/d) and exporting an estimated 8.6 million bbl/d (net). Saudi Arabia produces more than three times as much of these liquids as the next largest member of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (Iran), and as much as the rest of the Arab Middle East put together.
In addition to leading the world in production and exports, Saudi Arabia has an estimated 268 billion barrels of proved oil reserves, over 16% of the global total, and is the only country in the world with extensive spare oil production capacity, which can help cushion market disruptions. While Saudi Arabia has about a hundred major oil and natural gas fields, more than half of its proved reserves are contained in eight fields. Saudi Arabia's (and the world's) largest oil field (Ghawar) alone contains an estimated 70 billion barrels of proved reserves, more than the proved reserves in all but seven other countries.
In 2012, 16% of Saudi liquids exports were sent to the United States, accounting for 13% of total U.S. liquids imports. While Canada is the prime supplier of U.S. liquids imports, Saudi Arabia remains an important supplier.
Although leading the world in exports, Saudi Arabia's own liquids consumption is growing. Unlike the United States, Saudi Arabia uses significant amounts of oil for electricity generation, reaching as much as one million bbl/d during hot summer months. Electric demand has doubled since 2000 and is expected to continue its rapid growth. Without initiatives to facilitate fuel switching and increase efficiency, growing volumes of oil, expensive in relation to other fuels, will be consumed domestically.
Finally, as EIA has previously discussed, the choice of accounting conventions for measuring liquids production can also affect which country is considered the world's leading producer at a given date.
Get John Carter's new "Options Trading Strategies for 2013"
In addition to leading the world in production and exports, Saudi Arabia has an estimated 268 billion barrels of proved oil reserves, over 16% of the global total, and is the only country in the world with extensive spare oil production capacity, which can help cushion market disruptions. While Saudi Arabia has about a hundred major oil and natural gas fields, more than half of its proved reserves are contained in eight fields. Saudi Arabia's (and the world's) largest oil field (Ghawar) alone contains an estimated 70 billion barrels of proved reserves, more than the proved reserves in all but seven other countries.
In 2012, 16% of Saudi liquids exports were sent to the United States, accounting for 13% of total U.S. liquids imports. While Canada is the prime supplier of U.S. liquids imports, Saudi Arabia remains an important supplier.
Although leading the world in exports, Saudi Arabia's own liquids consumption is growing. Unlike the United States, Saudi Arabia uses significant amounts of oil for electricity generation, reaching as much as one million bbl/d during hot summer months. Electric demand has doubled since 2000 and is expected to continue its rapid growth. Without initiatives to facilitate fuel switching and increase efficiency, growing volumes of oil, expensive in relation to other fuels, will be consumed domestically.
Finally, as EIA has previously discussed, the choice of accounting conventions for measuring liquids production can also affect which country is considered the world's leading producer at a given date.
Get John Carter's new "Options Trading Strategies for 2013"
Wednesday, March 6, 2013
Size Doesn't Matter.....Your Account Size that Is
This is not an area of the market that anyone should blindly take a spin at. You need to understand the adjustability and broad range of trade structure that allows you to profit whether you are confronting a low volatility market, sideways or consolidating conditions, or a high volatility marketplace.
We get messages here at The Crude Oil Trader on a regular basis asking us to recommend options set ups and make suggestions on our members trades. We pass these messages on to one of two options traders that have become the most highly regarded options traders around. J.W. Jones and John Carter.
This week John has put together a video for us explaining how he is using options as income trades, no matter what the account size. What's interesting is he literally "gives" us the set ups that he uses on his own accounts. You need to see why these trades can be used on any size account and still be profitable. I think this will interest a lot of home gamers and pros alike who are trying to break into options trading. A market that has grown by 500% in the last decade.
One of the things that has made so many people resistant to options trading is just how complicated the talking heads on TV make options trading sound as they rush through their trade of the week. John teaches more about options income trading in a few minutes then you've read in most books.
Here's just a sample of what John will show us in this short video......
* How he made $52,875.00 last week trading Google Options
* His favorite options trading strategy for generating income
* Trading Setups with a probability of 75%
* How to limit your risk when the trade goes against you and much more
Grab a pen and paper so you can take some notes then just click here to watch the video. It's only 12 minutes long and in that short time I think John will change your mindset when it comes to options.
Final Stages of the Advance on SP 500....The Wave Pattern
Our trading partner David Banister has been projecting a potential rally pivot at 1552-1576 for many weeks now. The recent drop to 1485 although harrowing, was a normal fibonacci retracement of the last major rally leg to 1531 pivot highs. Banister believes that this 5 wave advance 1343 pivot lows is nearing an end based on mathematics and relationships to prior waves 1-3.
At 1569 the SP 500 would mark a perfect fibonacci relationships to waves 1-3 for this final 5th wave to the upside. In the big picture, we are still working higher off the 1010 pivot lows on the SP 500, and this rally takes 5 full waves to complete. He thinks we are near wave 3 highs, and wave 4 correction would be up next, followed by another thrust to highs if all goes well this year.
That all said, a multi-week correction and consolidation wave 4 pattern is likely once we pivot at 1552-1576. We should expect this correction to retrace anywhere from 80 -100 points on the SP 500, but one week at a time.
Click here to see his updated pattern views and sign up for free reports.
Get our Free Trading Videos, Lessons and eBook today!
At 1569 the SP 500 would mark a perfect fibonacci relationships to waves 1-3 for this final 5th wave to the upside. In the big picture, we are still working higher off the 1010 pivot lows on the SP 500, and this rally takes 5 full waves to complete. He thinks we are near wave 3 highs, and wave 4 correction would be up next, followed by another thrust to highs if all goes well this year.
That all said, a multi-week correction and consolidation wave 4 pattern is likely once we pivot at 1552-1576. We should expect this correction to retrace anywhere from 80 -100 points on the SP 500, but one week at a time.
Click here to see his updated pattern views and sign up for free reports.
Get our Free Trading Videos, Lessons and eBook today!
Sunday, March 3, 2013
Gold, Crude Oil & the SPX Trends and Setups
Over the past year our long term trends and outlooks have not changed for gold, oil or the SP500. Though there has been a lot of sideways price action to keep everyone one their toes and focused on the short term charts.
As we all know if the market does not shake you out, it will wait you out, and sometimes it will do both. So stepping back to review the bigger picture each weeks is crucial in keeping a level trading/investing strategy in motion.
The key to investing success is to always trade with the long term trend and stick with it until price and volume clearly signals a reversal/down trend. Doing this means you truly never catch the market top nor do you catch market bottoms. But the important thing is that you do catch the low risk trending stage of an investment (stage 2 – Bull Market, Stage 4 Bear Market).
Lets take a look at the charts and see where prices stand in the grand scheme of things.
Gold Weekly Futures Trading Chart:
Last week to talk about about how precious metals are nearing a major tipping point and to be aware of those levels because the next move is likely to be huge and you do not want to miss it.
Overall gold and silver remain in a secular bull market and has gone through many similar pauses to what we are watching unfold over the past year. As mentioned above the gold market looks to be trying to not only shake investors out but to wait them out also with this 18 month volatile sideways trend.
A lot of gold bugs, gold and stock investors of mining stocks are starting to give up which can been seen in the price and selling volume for these investments recently. We are contrarians by nature so when we see the masses running for the door we start to become interested in what everyone is unloading at bargain prices.
Gold is now entering an oversold panic selling phase which happens to be at major long term support. This bodes well for a strong bounce or start of a new bull market leg higher for this shiny metal. If gold breaks below $1500 – 1530 levels it could trigger a bear market for precious metals but until then we're bullish at this price. We think we could see another spike lower in gold to test the $1500- $1530 level this week but after that it could be off to the races to new highs.
Crude Oil Weekly Trading Chart:
Crude oil had a huge bull market from 2009 until 2011 but since then has been trading sideways in a narrowing bullish range. We expect some big moves this year for oil and technical analysis puts the odds on higher prices. If we do get a breakout and rally then $130 will likely be reached. But if price breaks down then a sharp drop to $50 per barrel looks likely.
Utility & Energy Stocks – XLU – XLE – Weekly Investing Chart
The utility sector has done well and continues to look very bullish for 2013. This high dividend paying sector is liked by many and the price action speaks for its self. If the overall financial market starts to peak then these sectors should hold up well because they are services, dividend and a commodity play wrapped in one.
SP500 Trend Daily Chart:
The SP500 continues to be in an uptrend which we are trading with until price and volume tells us otherwise. But there are some early warning signs that another correction or a full blown bear market may be just around the corner.
Again, sticking with the uptrend is key, but knowing what to look for and prepare for is important so that when the trend does change your transition from long positions to short positions is a simple measured move in your portfolios.
Weekend Trend Conclusion:
In short, we remain bullish on stocks and commodity related stocks until I see a trend change in the SP500.
Energy sector is doing well and looks bullish for the next month. As for gold and gold miners, we feel they are entering a low risk entry point to start building a new long position. Risk is low compared to potential reward.
When the price of a commodity or index trade near the apex of a narrowing range or major long term support/resistance level volatility typically increases as fear and greed become heightened which creates larger daily price swings. So be prepared for some turbulence in the coming weeks while the market shakes things up.
If you like our work then be sure to get on our free mailing list to get these emails each week on various investments and investment ideas.
Get our Free Trading Videos, Lessons and eBook today!
As we all know if the market does not shake you out, it will wait you out, and sometimes it will do both. So stepping back to review the bigger picture each weeks is crucial in keeping a level trading/investing strategy in motion.
The key to investing success is to always trade with the long term trend and stick with it until price and volume clearly signals a reversal/down trend. Doing this means you truly never catch the market top nor do you catch market bottoms. But the important thing is that you do catch the low risk trending stage of an investment (stage 2 – Bull Market, Stage 4 Bear Market).
Lets take a look at the charts and see where prices stand in the grand scheme of things.
Gold Weekly Futures Trading Chart:
Last week to talk about about how precious metals are nearing a major tipping point and to be aware of those levels because the next move is likely to be huge and you do not want to miss it.
Overall gold and silver remain in a secular bull market and has gone through many similar pauses to what we are watching unfold over the past year. As mentioned above the gold market looks to be trying to not only shake investors out but to wait them out also with this 18 month volatile sideways trend.
A lot of gold bugs, gold and stock investors of mining stocks are starting to give up which can been seen in the price and selling volume for these investments recently. We are contrarians by nature so when we see the masses running for the door we start to become interested in what everyone is unloading at bargain prices.
Gold is now entering an oversold panic selling phase which happens to be at major long term support. This bodes well for a strong bounce or start of a new bull market leg higher for this shiny metal. If gold breaks below $1500 – 1530 levels it could trigger a bear market for precious metals but until then we're bullish at this price. We think we could see another spike lower in gold to test the $1500- $1530 level this week but after that it could be off to the races to new highs.
Crude Oil Weekly Trading Chart:
Crude oil had a huge bull market from 2009 until 2011 but since then has been trading sideways in a narrowing bullish range. We expect some big moves this year for oil and technical analysis puts the odds on higher prices. If we do get a breakout and rally then $130 will likely be reached. But if price breaks down then a sharp drop to $50 per barrel looks likely.
Utility & Energy Stocks – XLU – XLE – Weekly Investing Chart
The utility sector has done well and continues to look very bullish for 2013. This high dividend paying sector is liked by many and the price action speaks for its self. If the overall financial market starts to peak then these sectors should hold up well because they are services, dividend and a commodity play wrapped in one.
SP500 Trend Daily Chart:
The SP500 continues to be in an uptrend which we are trading with until price and volume tells us otherwise. But there are some early warning signs that another correction or a full blown bear market may be just around the corner.
Again, sticking with the uptrend is key, but knowing what to look for and prepare for is important so that when the trend does change your transition from long positions to short positions is a simple measured move in your portfolios.
Weekend Trend Conclusion:
In short, we remain bullish on stocks and commodity related stocks until I see a trend change in the SP500.
Energy sector is doing well and looks bullish for the next month. As for gold and gold miners, we feel they are entering a low risk entry point to start building a new long position. Risk is low compared to potential reward.
When the price of a commodity or index trade near the apex of a narrowing range or major long term support/resistance level volatility typically increases as fear and greed become heightened which creates larger daily price swings. So be prepared for some turbulence in the coming weeks while the market shakes things up.
If you like our work then be sure to get on our free mailing list to get these emails each week on various investments and investment ideas.
Get our Free Trading Videos, Lessons and eBook today!
Friday, March 1, 2013
How to Trade POMO Manipulation
This week I talked about how the uptrend is to be the focus of trading positions until a down trend is actually confirmed via price and volume action. The SP500 was very close to reversing down this week but with the POMO’s (permanent open market operations) scheduled largest injection of money for February of over $5 billion dollars sent stocks soaring jamming stocks back up into its uptrend.
Take a look at the normal daily injections and then look at Feb 27th’s....
SP500 Futures 10 Minute Chart Zoomed Back 48 Hours....
SP500 Trend – Green, Orange, Red candles indicate trend direction....
Short Term Trading Conclusion:
Following the bigger underlying trend of the market along with the big money will keep you on the right side of the market more times than not. My trading strategy which is now programmed into my trading system clearly tells me the current market trend, entry signals, profit taking, stop adjustments and exit prices.
Creating a proven trading strategy which works in all market conditions and having it programmed to do 95% of the analysis for you keep my trading emotions in check, saves me time and money and keeps things simple which is the key for long term success. So keep your eye on the POMO’s injection schedule each month for days to focus on long day trades or entry points for swing trades.
Receive Free Weekly Reports, Trading Tips and my Book at The Gold & Oil Guy.com
Chris Vermeulen
Get our Free Trading Videos, Lessons and eBook today!
Take a look at the normal daily injections and then look at Feb 27th’s....
SP500 Futures 10 Minute Chart Zoomed Back 48 Hours....
SP500 Trend – Green, Orange, Red candles indicate trend direction....
Short Term Trading Conclusion:
Following the bigger underlying trend of the market along with the big money will keep you on the right side of the market more times than not. My trading strategy which is now programmed into my trading system clearly tells me the current market trend, entry signals, profit taking, stop adjustments and exit prices.
Creating a proven trading strategy which works in all market conditions and having it programmed to do 95% of the analysis for you keep my trading emotions in check, saves me time and money and keeps things simple which is the key for long term success. So keep your eye on the POMO’s injection schedule each month for days to focus on long day trades or entry points for swing trades.
Receive Free Weekly Reports, Trading Tips and my Book at The Gold & Oil Guy.com
Chris Vermeulen
Get our Free Trading Videos, Lessons and eBook today!
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