Crude oil closes below the 20 day moving average, does this confirm a near term top is in?

September crude oil closed lower on Tuesday and below the 20 day moving average crossing at 104.82 confirming that a short term top has been posted. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If September extends the decline off July's high, the 38% retracement level of the April-July rally crossing at 100.27 is the next downside target. If September renews the rally off April's low, weekly resistance crossing at 109.45 is the next upside target. First resistance is July's high crossing at 108.93. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 109.45. First support is today's low crossing at 102.67. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the April-July rally crossing at 100.27.

The September S&P 500 closed unchanged on Tuesday. The mid range close sets the stage for a steady opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bearish hinting that a short term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 1665.30 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. If September renews the rally off June's low, upside targets will now be hard to project with the next trading into uncharted territory. First resistance is last Tuesday's high crossing at 1695.50. Second resistance is unknown with September trading into uncharted territory. First support is the reaction low crossing at 1666.00. Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 1665.30.

October gold closed lower on Tuesday. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bearish hinting that a short term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 1286.50 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. If October extend the rally off June's low, the reaction high crossing at 1395.20 is the next upside target. First resistance is last Wednesday's high crossing at 1348.00. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 1395.20. First support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 1286.50. Second support is July's low crossing at 1208.50.

September Henry natural gas closed lower on Tuesday as it extends this decline off May's high. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If September extends the aforementioned decline, January's low crossing at 3.350 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 3.656 would confirm that a short term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 3.656. Second resistance is July's high crossing at 3.833. First support is today's low crossing at 3.418. Second support is January's low crossing at 3.350.

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Ensco and National Oilwell Varco Report Second Quarter Earnings ESV NOV

National Oilwell Varco (NYSE: NOV) today reported that for its second quarter ended June 30, 2013 it earned net income of $531 million, or $1.24 per fully diluted share, compared to first quarter ended March 31, 2013 net income of $502 million, or $1.17 per fully diluted share. Excluding transaction charges of $57 million pre-tax, second quarter 2013 net income was $568 million, or $1.33 per fully diluted share.

The Company’s revenues for the second quarter of 2013 were $5.60 billion, which improved six percent from the first quarter of 2013 and 18 percent from the second quarter of 2012. Operating profit for the second quarter of 2013 was $826 million, or 14.7 percent of sales, excluding transaction charges.

Backlog for capital equipment orders for the Company’s Rig Technology segment was at a historic record level of $13.95 billion as of June 30, 2013, up eight percent from the end of the first quarter of 2013 and up 24 percent from the end of the second quarter of 2012. New orders during the quarter were $3.15 billion, reflecting continued strong demand for oilfield equipment.

Pete Miller, Chairman and CEO of National Oilwell Varco, remarked, “The second quarter of 2013 marked another solid quarter for NOV. Despite seasonal slowdowns in Canada and a challenging US market, the Company produced sequential gains in revenues and earnings, which were largely driven by strong revenues out of backlog and significant international growth within our Petroleum Services & Supplies and Distribution & Transmission segments.

The Company also ended the quarter with an all-time record backlog of capital equipment, as orders for new floaters and jackups continued at a strong pace, and orders for our floating production equipment more than doubled from the first quarter.” Miller continued, “In addition to our solid operating results, we are also proud to have doubled our regular dividend in the second quarter, further demonstrating our commitment to return more cash to our shareholders. As we move through the second half of 2013, we look forward to continued demand for our offshore drilling and floating production equipment, a gradual rebound in Canada, and continued growth from our other international operations.”

Read the entire National Oilwell Varco earnings report

Ensco plc (NYSE: ESV) reported diluted earnings per share from continuing operations of $1.55 in second quarter 2013, compared to $1.45 per share in second quarter 2012. Discontinued operations primarily related to rigs and other assets no longer on the Company’s balance sheet resulted in a gain of $0.02 per share a year ago. Diluted earnings per share increased to $1.55 from $1.47 in second quarter 2012.

Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer Dan Rabun stated, “We continue to see strong, broad-based customer demand given the steady pace of new discoveries that must be appraised and developed. Based on our positive outlook, we recently ordered our eighth Samsung DP3 drillship, ENSCO DS-10, and our seventh Keppel FELS B Class jackup, ENSCO 110.”

Mr. Rabun added, “These new assets reinforce our fleet standardization strategy that provides customers consistently high levels of operational excellence.”

Revenues grew 17% to a record $1.248 billion in second quarter 2013 from $1.071 billion a year ago. Operating income grew 12% to $452 million and earnings increased $20 million to a record $361 million. The addition of ENSCO 8506 and ENSCO DS-6 to the active fleet as well as a full quarter of operations for ENSCO 8505 drove these increases. The average day rate for the fleet increased $36,000 year to year to $228,000.

Contract drilling expense was $607 million, up from $494 million in second quarter 2012. This increase was primarily due to adding new floaters to the active fleet as well as a previously anticipated increase in labor costs.

Depreciation expense was $153 million compared to $136 million a year ago. The $17 million increase was mostly due to a growing active fleet. General and administrative expense was $36 million in second quarter 2013, equal to second quarter 2012.

Interest expense in second quarter 2013 was $44 million, net of $13 million of interest that was capitalized, compared to interest expense of $30 million in second quarter 2012, net of $28 million of interest that was capitalized.

Read the entire Ensco earnings report



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Markets Close Slightly Lower as Traders Appear to be in Wait and See Mode

September crude oil closed slightly lower on Monday as it extended the decline off July's high. The mid range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. Multiple closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 104.56 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted. If September renews the rally off April's low, weekly resistance crossing at 109.45 is the next upside target. First resistance is July's high crossing at 108.93. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 109.45. First support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 104.56. Second support is the 25% retracement level of the April-July rally crossing at 103.27.

The September S&P 500 closed lower due to profit taking on Monday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning bearish hinting that a short term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 1661.54 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. If September renews the rally off June's low, upside targets will now be hard to project with the next trading into uncharted territory. First resistance is last Tuesday's high crossing at 1695.50. Second resistance is unknown with September trading into uncharted territory. First support is the reaction low crossing at 1666.00. Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 1661.54.

October gold closed higher on Monday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish hinting that a short term top might be in or is near. If October extend the rally off June's low, the reaction high crossing at 1395.20 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 1283.10 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. First resistance is last Wednesday's high crossing at 1348.00. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 1395.20. First support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 1283.10. Second support is July's low crossing at 1208.50.

September Henry natural gas closed lower on Monday as it extends this decline off May's high. The mid range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If September extends the aforementioned decline, January's low crossing at 3.350 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10 day moving average crossing at 3.671 would confirm that a short term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 3.671. Second resistance is July's high crossing at 3.833. First support is today's low crossing at 3.427. Second support is January's low crossing at 3.350.


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Anadarko and Superior Energy Report 2nd Quarter Earnings

Anadarko Petroleum Corporation (NYSE: APC) today announced second quarter 2013 net income attributable to common stockholders of $929 million, or $1.83 per share (diluted). These results include certain items typically excluded by the investment community in published estimates. In total, these items increased net income by approximately $392 million, or $0.78 per share (diluted), on an after tax basis.(1) Cash flow from operating activities in the second quarter of 2013 was approximately $2.502 billion, and discretionary cash flow totaled $1.908 billion.(2)

Second Quarter 2013 Highlights

    *    Generated $290 million of adjusted free cash flow(2)
    *    Increased U.S. onshore oil volumes by almost 20,000 barrels per day over second-quarter 2012
    *    Reached milestones at four large scale oil projects in Algeria, Ghana and the Gulf of Mexico
    *    Drilled five deepwater discoveries in the Gulf of Mexico and Mozambique

"We continue to have exceptional performance from our portfolio, as evidenced by the results delivered in the second quarter of 2013," said Anadarko Chairman, President and CEO Al Walker. "Our U.S. onshore activities delivered year over year oil growth of 25 percent, averaging approximately 97,000 barrels per day during the quarter. We continued to drive significant improvements into our drilling and completions programs, and costs in each category were favorable to our expectations.

We reached milestones at four of our large global oil projects, which are advancing on schedule and on budget, and we achieved a success rate of almost 70 percent in our deepwater exploration/appraisal program, including five new discoveries. We also strengthened the balance sheet, improving our net debt to adjusted capitalization ratio(2) to 29 percent compared to 34 percent at the end of 2012."

Read the entire Anadarko earnings report

Superior Energy Services (NYSE: SPN) today announced net income of $68.6 million, or $0.43 per diluted share, on revenue of $1,159.7 million for the second quarter of 2013.

These results compare with the second quarter of 2012 net income from continuing operations of $142.8 million, or $0.90 per diluted share, and net income of $141.9 million, or $0.89 per diluted share, on revenue of $1,243.3 million.

For the six months ended June 30, 2013, the Company recorded net income of $132.3 million, or $0.82 per diluted share, on revenue of $2,295.2 million. For the six months ended June 30, 2012, the Company recorded net income from continuing operations of $213.0 million, or $1.49 per diluted share, and net income of $195.8 million, or $1.37 per diluted share, on revenue of $2,210.2 million.

David Dunlap, President and CEO of the Company, commented, "As previously announced, our decision to relocate pressure pumping equipment coupled with a slowdown in Mexico and weather in North Dakota impacted our results. However, this was partially offset by some underlying positives during the quarter including improved profit margins, increasing Gulf of Mexico activity and execution of our international growth strategy.

"We were able to slightly increase profit margins for the second consecutive quarter in the Onshore Completions and Workover segment despite downtime in pressure pumping related to equipment relocation and downtime for most services impacted by poor weather in North Dakota. This was achieved by our disciplined approach of maintaining margins rather than growing market share.

"Gulf of Mexico activity has increased at a rapid pace relative to last year with increases coming across our three business segments with operations in the Gulf. Our Gulf of Mexico revenue for the first six months of 2013 increased 34% over the first six months of 2012. Drilling Products and Services segment revenue in the first half of 2013 has increased 30% over the first half of 2012 due to increased deepwater drilling activity. In addition, our Subsea and Technical Solutions segment revenue in the Gulf is 29% higher as a result of a robust market for completion tools and products.

Finally, our international revenue for the first six months of 2013 has increased 13% over the first half of 2012 as growth plans in Brazil, Colombia and Argentina collectively performed as anticipated and in some cases, ahead of schedule."

Read the entire Superior Energy earnings report


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This weeks earnings reports schedule from the oil sector

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Monday                                             Consensus EPS        One year ago actual

Anadarko Petroleum (APC)                     $0.880                $0.850
Superior Energy Services (SPN)              $0.480                 $0.830

Tuesday

Enbridge Energy Partners (EEP)             $0.220                 $0.230
Ensco (ESV)                                           $1.50                   $1.41
Holly Energy Partners (HEP)                   $0.300                $0.320
National Oilwell Varco (NOV)                  $1.33                   $1.46
Occidental Pete Corp (OXY)                    $1.63                   $1.64

Wednesday

Atwood Oceanics (ATW)                       $1.34                  $0.790
Hercules Offshore Inc (HERO)              $0.060                  $0.12
Hess Corp (HES)                                   $1.39                   $1.72
Murphy Oil Corp. (MUR)                      $1.54                   $1.52
Phillips 66 (PSX)                                   $1.94                    $2.23
Pioneer Natural Resources (PXD)          $1.10                   $0.780
Suncor Energy (SU)                              $0.630                  $0.810

Thursday

Apache Corp (APA)                              $2.01                   $2.07
Chesapeake Energy (CHK)                  $0.400                  $0.060
ConocoPhillips (COP)                          $1.28                     $1.22
CVR Energy Inc (CVI)                         $1.62                     $2.52
Enbridge Inc (ENB)                             $0.380                   $0.360
Eni Spa (E)                                          $0.450                   $0.970
Exxon Mobil Corp (XOM)                    $1.90                     $1.80
Kodiak Oil & Gas (KOG)                    $0.140                   $0.100
Southwestern Energy (SWN)               $0.510                   $0.260
Tesoro Corp (TSO)                              $1.46                     $2.87
Walter Energy (WLT)                           $0.48                    $0.430

Friday

Ultra Petroleum Corp. (UPL)              $0.410                   $0.360

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Have the crude oil bears taken the clear advantage?

September crude oil closed slightly lower on Friday as it extends this week's decline. The mid range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 104.15 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. If September renews the rally off April's low, weekly resistance crossing at 109.45 is the next upside target. First resistance is last Friday's high crossing at 108.93. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 109.45. First support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 104.15. Second support is today's low crossing at 103.90.

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The September S&P 500 closed lower due to profit taking on Friday. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish hinting that a short term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 1657.12 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. If September extends the rally off June's low, upside targets will now be hard to project with the next trading into uncharted territory. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 1695.50. Second resistance is unknown with September trading into uncharted territory. First support is the reaction low crossing at 1666.00. Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 1657.12.

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August gold closed higher on Friday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If August extend the rally off June's low, the reaction high crossing at 1394.00 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 1277.50 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 1348.70. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 1394.00. First support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 1277.50. Second support is June's low crossing at 1179.40.

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August Henry natural gas closed lower on Friday as it extends this week's decline. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If August extends this week's decline, the reaction low crossing at 3.546 is the next downside target. If August renews the rally, the reaction high crossing at 4.003 is the next upside target. First resistance is last Thursday's high crossing at 3.835. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 4.003. First support is the reaction low crossing at 3.546. Second support is January's low crossing at 3.365.

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Is this a buy signal in coffee? JO

Our trading partner Jim Robinson of INO.com is talking coffee today and he is sharing his expert analysis of charts to our readers. Each week he'll be be analyzing a different chart using our Trade Triangle technology and his experience. Today he is going to take a look at the technical picture of Coffee, contract (NYBOT_KC.Z13.E). Here at The Crude Oil Trader we are using ticker JO for our current coffee trades.

This week let's take a look at the December Coffee futures chart.

We use the weekly MarketClub Trade Triangle to tell the trend when trading futures and the daily MarketClub Trade Triangle to time the trade. December Coffee is on a weekly green MarketClub Trade Triangle and a daily red MarketClub Trade Triangle which is just exactly the way we want the Triangles to line up for a buy setup.

If December Coffee trades higher from here and puts in a daily green MarketClub Trade Triangle that is the place to go long because the weekly and daily Trade Triangles will then both be pointing up. If a long trade does happen in Coffee, then the stop if wrong is if Coffee trades lower and puts in a red daily Trade Triangle.

This is a great way to trade because we are getting long with the trend and will catch all the big trending moves when they happen, while cutting our loses short if the trade doesn't move our way. If Coffee continues lower from here and puts in a red weekly Trade Triangle then the long trade is off, which is fine, as we are following what the market is telling us, and lower prices from here would cancel the current long trade setup.

Coffee is a Chart to Watch right now, because a big move higher from here could be about to happen.




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Bears taking charge....Crude oil bulls struggle to trade above 20 day moving average

The September S&P 500 closed lower due to profit taking on Thursday. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but are turning neutral to bearish hinting that a short term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 1653.23 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. If September extends the rally off June's low, upside targets will now be hard to project with the next trading into uncharted territory. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 1695.50. Second resistance is unknown with September trading into uncharted territory. First support is the reaction low crossing at 1666.00. Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 1653.23.

September crude oil closed slightly higher on Thursday but remains below the 10 day moving average crossing at 106.43. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 103.77 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. If September renews the rally off April's low, weekly resistance crossing at 109.45 is the next upside target. First resistance is last Friday's high crossing at 108.93. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 109.45. First support is today's low crossing at 104.08. Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 103.77.

August Henry natural gas closed lower on Thursday and below the 20 day moving average crossing at 3.668 confirming that a short term top has been posted. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If August extends today's decline, the reaction low crossing at 3.546 is the next downside target. If August renews the rally, the reaction high crossing at 4.003 is the next upside target. First resistance is last Thursday's high crossing at 3.835. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 4.003. First support is the reaction low crossing at 3.546. Second support is January's low crossing at 3.365.

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EIA: By 2040 world energy consumption will rise by 56%

From Robin Dupre at Rigzone.com......

World energy consumption will rise 56 percent in the next three decades, driven by growth in the developing world, noted The Energy Information Administration (EIA) in its International Energy Outlook 2013 report Thursday. China and India’s rising prosperity is a major factor in the outlook for global energy demand, noted EIA Administrator Adam Sieminski in a press conference call.

“These two countries combined account for half the world’s total increase in energy use through 2040. This will have a profound effect on the development of world energy markets.” Energy demand will increase to 820 quadrillion British thermal units (Btu) in 2040, up from 524 quadrillion Btus. By 2040, China’s energy use will double the United States’, according to EIA estimates.

One quadrillion Btu is equal to 172 million barrels of crude oil.

Additionally, renewable energy and nuclear power are the fastest growing source of energy consumption with each increasing by 2.5 percent per year. But fossil fuels, including oil, natural gas and coal will continue to supply almost 80 percent of the world’s energy through 2040, noted Sieminski.

Natural gas is the fastest growing fossil fuel in EIA’s outlook, and will continue to dominate the landscape, increasing by 1.7 percent per year. Swelling supplies of tight gas, shale gas and coalbed methane support growth in projected worldwide gas use with non OECD Europe/Eurasia, Middle East and the United States accounting for the largest increases in natural gas production.

The explosion in supply from unconventional sources will underpin growth of natural gas demand, while high oil prices will encourage countries to focus on liquid fuels “when feasible”, the report stated.

The EIA’s July short term energy outlook projected benchmark Brent crude to average $105 a barrel in 2013 and $100 in 2014.The report projects that prices will increase long term with the world oil price reaching $106 a barrel in 2020 and $163 in 2040 in the Reference case.

With more than 10 years of journalism experience, Robin Dupre specializes in the offshore sector of the oil and gas industry. Email Robin at rdupre@rigzone.com.

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Statoil Reports 2013 Second Quarter Results STO

Statoils (NYSE:STO) second quarter 2013 net operating income was NOK 34.3 billion. Adjusted earnings were NOK 38.0 billion. "Statoil delivered an operationally solid quarter. We produced as planned, delivering record production from our portfolio outside Norway. We are on track and maintain our guidance for 2013," says Helge Lund, Statoil's president and CEO.

"Our financial results were impacted by lower prices for liquids and gas and weak trading results. However, we have maintained good cost control and delivered strong earnings, particularly from our international portfolio," says Lund.

In the quarter, Statoil ramped up several fields. The company continues to have a high activity level in projects on the Norwegian continental shelf, with major field developments ongoing such as Gudrun, Åsgard subsea compression and Valemon.

"The activity level on new field developments is high. We are executing our projects according to plan," says Lund.

Statoil continued its exploration progress with five discoveries in the quarter. The company has accessed attractive exploration acreage in Norway, Russia, Azerbaijan, Tanzania and Australia, further strengthening its position for profitable long term growth.

Second quarter results 2013

Statoil's net operating income was NOK 34.3 billion compared to NOK 62.0 billion in the second quarter of 2012. Adjusted earnings [5] were NOK 38.0 billion, compared to NOK 45.8 billion in the second quarter of 2012. Adjusted earnings after tax [5] were NOK 11.3 billion, compared to NOK 11.5 billion in the second quarter of 2012. Net income was NOK 4.3 billion compared to NOK 26.6 billion in the second quarter of 2012.

Key events since first quarter 2013:

Revitalising Statoil's legacy position on the Norwegian continental shelf (NCS) by progressing new projects as planned, including Gudrun, Åsgard subsea gas compression, Valemon and Aasta Hansteen. Two category- J rigs acquired by the licence partners of Gullfaks and Oseberg Area Unit to increase recovery and extend field life. Johan Castberg project postponed for review, due to updated project estimates and pending clarification in the fiscal framework.

Accessing attractive acreage in the Barents Sea, Brazil, Tanzania, Russia, Caspian and Australia. Oil discoveries announced offshore Newfoundland in Canada and in the Grane area in Norway. Important Johan Sverdrup appraisal completed, confirming the extent and characteristics of the reservoir.

Stepping up our activity in unconventional resources by assuming operatorship for all activities in the eastern part of our Eagle Ford asset in Texas. Statoil now has operational activities in all onshore assets in the US (Bakken, Marcellus and Eagle Ford).

Building offshore clusters by sanctioning the Julia and Heidelberg developments in the Gulf of Mexico.

Creating value from a superior gas position: The Shah Deniz consortium announced that it has selected the Trans Adriatic Pipeline (TAP) to deliver gas from the Shah Deniz Stage 2 project.

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