It's no surprise that yesterday's news that the U.S. was going to have a military response to Syria spooked the markets and sent the indices to their biggest loss in some time. Today, it looks like the markets are digested what they went through yesterday.
October crude oil closed higher on Wednesday as it extends this summer's rally. Profit taking tempered early session gains and the low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If October extends this summer's rally, weekly resistance crossing at 114.83 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 106.04 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 112.24. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 114.83. First support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 106.04. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 103.50.
October Henry natural gas closed higher on Wednesday as it extended this month's rally. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If October extends this month's rally, the 38% retracement level of the May-August decline crossing at 3.680 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 3.421 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 3.628. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the May-August decline crossing at 3.680. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.421. Second support is August's low crossing at 3.154.
October gold closed lower due to profit taking on Wednesday as it consolidated some of the rally off June's low. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If October extends the aforementioned rally, May's high crossing at 1489.00 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 1346.80 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 1432.90. Second resistance is May's high crossing at 1489.00. First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 1383.50. Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 1346.80.
The September Dollar closed higher on Wednesday. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 81.99 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted. If September renews the decline off July's high, June's low crossing at 80.61 is the next downside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 81.99. Second resistance is August's high crossing at 82.61. First support is last Tuesday's low crossing at 80.77. Second support is June's low crossing at 80.61.
And last but not least.....September coffee closed higher on Wednesday as it consolidated some of this summer's decline. The high range close set the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If September renews this month's decline, monthly support crossing at 10.21 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 118.11 would confirm that a low has been posted.
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Wednesday, August 28, 2013
SDRL - Seadrill announces second quarter 2013 results
Consolidated revenues for SeaDrill in the second quarter of 2013 were US$1,268 million compared to US$1,265 million in the first quarter of 2013. The increase was despite the sale of the tender rig business, which operated for only 30 days in the quarter, resulting in a US$100 million revenue decline from 1Q 2013. Overall improvement in fleet performance more than offset this revenue reduction.
Operating profit for the quarter was US$507 million compared to US$552 million in the preceding quarter. The decrease is driven by gain on sale of the West Janus in the first quarter, offset by lower operating and SG&A expenses during the second quarter.
* Seadrill reports its best operating results and net income ever and generated second quarter 2013 EBITDA*) of US$665 million
* Seadrill reports second quarter 2013 net income of US$1,750 million and earnings per share of US$3.68
* Seadrill increases the ordinary quarterly cash dividend by 3 cents to US$0.91
* Economic utilization for floaters increased to 94% in Q2 2013 from 92% in Q1 2013
* Economic utilization for the jack-up fleet in Q2 2013 was 98%, down from 99% in Q1 2013
* Seadrill secured a three-year contract for the newbuild drillship West Neptune with a total estimated revenue potential of US$662 million
* Seadrill realized a gain of US$1,256 million from the sale of the tender rig division to SapuraKencana Petroleum for a total consideration of US$2.9 billion
* Seadrill completed the sale of the tender rig T-15 to Seadrill Partners LLC (SDLP) for a total consideration of US$210 million
* Seadrill ordered two jack-ups for a total estimated project price of US$230 million per rig, with deliveries in 4Q 2015 and 1Q 2016
* Seadrill and SapuraKencana joint project secured an eight year contract for three Pipe Laying Support Vessels with a total estimated revenue potential of US$2.7 billion
* North Atlantic Drilling completes sale and leaseback transaction for the newbuild harsh environment jack-up West Linus for US$600 million
Subsequent events
* Seadrill appoints Per Wullf as CEO to take over from Fredrik Halvorsen
* Seadrill orders four ultra-deepwater drillships for an estimated project price below US$600 million per rig, with deliveries scheduled for the second half of 2015
* Seadrill orders two jack-ups for an estimated project price of US$230 million per rig, with deliveries in the second and third quarters of 2016, respectively
* Seadrill reaches 50.1% ownership in Sevan Drilling and launches mandatory offer for all outstanding shares which closed on August 22, 2013
* Seadrill secures a 180 day contract for the newbuild ultra-deepwater drillship West Tellus with a total estimated revenue potential of US$150 million
* Seadrill secures a 2.5 year contract for the jack-up rig West Freedom with a total estimated revenue potential of US$222 million
* Seadrill secures a one year contract extension with Talisman in Malaysia for the jack-up rig West Vigilant at US$167,000 per day
* North Atlantic Drilling is awarded an extension of the current drilling contract, in addition to a new drilling contract for West Navigator, securing employment to December 2014 with a total estimated revenue potential of US$98 million
Click here for complete earnings report and consolidated financial information
Here's a FREE Trend Analysis for SeaDrill....ticker SDRL
Operating profit for the quarter was US$507 million compared to US$552 million in the preceding quarter. The decrease is driven by gain on sale of the West Janus in the first quarter, offset by lower operating and SG&A expenses during the second quarter.
* Seadrill reports its best operating results and net income ever and generated second quarter 2013 EBITDA*) of US$665 million
* Seadrill reports second quarter 2013 net income of US$1,750 million and earnings per share of US$3.68
* Seadrill increases the ordinary quarterly cash dividend by 3 cents to US$0.91
* Economic utilization for floaters increased to 94% in Q2 2013 from 92% in Q1 2013
* Economic utilization for the jack-up fleet in Q2 2013 was 98%, down from 99% in Q1 2013
* Seadrill secured a three-year contract for the newbuild drillship West Neptune with a total estimated revenue potential of US$662 million
* Seadrill realized a gain of US$1,256 million from the sale of the tender rig division to SapuraKencana Petroleum for a total consideration of US$2.9 billion
* Seadrill completed the sale of the tender rig T-15 to Seadrill Partners LLC (SDLP) for a total consideration of US$210 million
* Seadrill ordered two jack-ups for a total estimated project price of US$230 million per rig, with deliveries in 4Q 2015 and 1Q 2016
* Seadrill and SapuraKencana joint project secured an eight year contract for three Pipe Laying Support Vessels with a total estimated revenue potential of US$2.7 billion
* North Atlantic Drilling completes sale and leaseback transaction for the newbuild harsh environment jack-up West Linus for US$600 million
Subsequent events
* Seadrill appoints Per Wullf as CEO to take over from Fredrik Halvorsen
* Seadrill orders four ultra-deepwater drillships for an estimated project price below US$600 million per rig, with deliveries scheduled for the second half of 2015
* Seadrill orders two jack-ups for an estimated project price of US$230 million per rig, with deliveries in the second and third quarters of 2016, respectively
* Seadrill reaches 50.1% ownership in Sevan Drilling and launches mandatory offer for all outstanding shares which closed on August 22, 2013
* Seadrill secures a 180 day contract for the newbuild ultra-deepwater drillship West Tellus with a total estimated revenue potential of US$150 million
* Seadrill secures a 2.5 year contract for the jack-up rig West Freedom with a total estimated revenue potential of US$222 million
* Seadrill secures a one year contract extension with Talisman in Malaysia for the jack-up rig West Vigilant at US$167,000 per day
* North Atlantic Drilling is awarded an extension of the current drilling contract, in addition to a new drilling contract for West Navigator, securing employment to December 2014 with a total estimated revenue potential of US$98 million
Click here for complete earnings report and consolidated financial information
Here's a FREE Trend Analysis for SeaDrill....ticker SDRL
Tuesday, August 27, 2013
Volatility in Syria = Volatility in the Markets. Risk off is ON!
The U.S. stock indexes closed solidly lower today on profit taking and amid a “risk-off” day in the world market place The U.S. appears poised to take military action against Syria, possibly within 48 hours, after the Syrian government regime used chemical weapons against its citizens. World stock markets sold off Tuesday on the jitters regarding Syria. There are worries any U.S. military intervention in Syria could escalate into further instability and violence in the already volatile Middle East. Emerging country financial markets and currencies also saw strains Tuesday amid the risk aversion in the market place. The Indian rupee hit another record low versus the U.S. dollar Tuesday.
October Nymex crude oil closed up $3.04 at $108.97 today. Prices closed nearer the session high today and hit a fresh contract high. Syria tensions have pushed oil sharply higher following U.S. Secretary of State Kerry's harsh condemnation of Syria Monday afternoon. Crude oil bulls have the strong overall near term technical advantage. Prices have now seen a bullish upside “breakout” from the choppy and sideways trading range at higher price levels.
December gold futures closed up $26.50 an ounce at $1,419.70 today. Prices closed nearer the session high and hit a nearly three month high today. Safe haven buying was featured, along with fresh technical buying interest. The key “outside markets” were also bullish for the gold market today, as the U.S. dollar index was lower and crude oil prices were sharply higher. The gold market bulls have the near term technical advantage. A two month old uptrend is in place on the daily bar chart.
October natural gas closed up 2.4 cents at $3.577 today. Prices closed near the session high. The nat gas bears still have the overall near term technical advantage. However, the bulls have gained a bit of upside momentum.
The September U.S. dollar index closed down .271 at 81.170 today. Prices closed near the session low. The greenback bears have the overall near term technical advantage. Prices are in a seven week old downtrend on the daily bar chart.
And you just have to know that we can't resist talking about coffee. December coffee closed down 110 points at 116.65 cents today. Prices closed near the session low today as prices hover near the recent contract low. The key “outside markets” were fully bullish for the coffee market today as the U.S. dollar index was lower and crude oil prices were sharply higher. Yet, the coffee market bulls could get no traction, which is another bearish clue for coffee. The coffee bears have the solid overall near term technical advantage.
Don't miss this weeks webinar with Scott Andrews....Just click here to enroll!
October Nymex crude oil closed up $3.04 at $108.97 today. Prices closed nearer the session high today and hit a fresh contract high. Syria tensions have pushed oil sharply higher following U.S. Secretary of State Kerry's harsh condemnation of Syria Monday afternoon. Crude oil bulls have the strong overall near term technical advantage. Prices have now seen a bullish upside “breakout” from the choppy and sideways trading range at higher price levels.
December gold futures closed up $26.50 an ounce at $1,419.70 today. Prices closed nearer the session high and hit a nearly three month high today. Safe haven buying was featured, along with fresh technical buying interest. The key “outside markets” were also bullish for the gold market today, as the U.S. dollar index was lower and crude oil prices were sharply higher. The gold market bulls have the near term technical advantage. A two month old uptrend is in place on the daily bar chart.
October natural gas closed up 2.4 cents at $3.577 today. Prices closed near the session high. The nat gas bears still have the overall near term technical advantage. However, the bulls have gained a bit of upside momentum.
The September U.S. dollar index closed down .271 at 81.170 today. Prices closed near the session low. The greenback bears have the overall near term technical advantage. Prices are in a seven week old downtrend on the daily bar chart.
And you just have to know that we can't resist talking about coffee. December coffee closed down 110 points at 116.65 cents today. Prices closed near the session low today as prices hover near the recent contract low. The key “outside markets” were fully bullish for the coffee market today as the U.S. dollar index was lower and crude oil prices were sharply higher. Yet, the coffee market bulls could get no traction, which is another bearish clue for coffee. The coffee bears have the solid overall near term technical advantage.
Don't miss this weeks webinar with Scott Andrews....Just click here to enroll!
Monday, August 26, 2013
Thoughts from the Frontline.....France: On the Edge of the Periphery
By John Mauldin
"The emotional side of me tends to imagine France, like the princess in the fairy stories or the Madonna in the frescoes, as dedicated to an exalted and exceptional destiny. Instinctively I have the feeling that Providence has created her either for complete successes or for exemplary misfortunes. Our country, as it is, surrounded by the others as they are, must aim high and hold itself straight, on pain of mortal danger. In short, to my mind, France cannot be France without greatness.
– Charles de Gaulle, from his memoirs
In the Eurozone there was no mechanism by which exchange rates could be used to balance the labor-cost differentials between the peripheral countries and those of the northern tier. And then there's France. I've been writing in this space for some time that France has the potential to become the next Greece. I've spent a good deal of time this past month reviewing the European situation, and I'm more convinced than ever that France is on its way to becoming the most significant economic train wreck in Europe within the next few years.
We shifted focus at the beginning of the year to Japan because of the real crisis that is brewing there. Over the next few months I will begin to refocus on Europe as that train threatens to go off the track again. And true to form, this wreck will be entirely due to human error, coupled with a large dollop of hubris. This week we will take a brief look at the problems developing in Europe and then do a series of in-depth dives between now and the beginning of winter. The coming European crisis will not show up next week but will start playing in a movie theater near you sometime next year. Today's letter will close with a little speculation on how the developing conflict between France and Germany and the rest of its euro neighbors will play out.
France: On the Edge of the Periphery
I think I need first to acknowledge that the market clearly doesn't agree with me. The market for French OATS (Obligations Assimilables du Trésor), their longer-term bonds, sees no risk. The following chart is a comparison of interest rates for much of the developed world, which I reproduce for those who are interested in comparative details. Notice that French rates are lower than those of the US, Canada, and the UK. Now I understand that interest rates are a function of monetary policy, inflation expectations, and the demand for money, which are all related to economic growth, but still….
France's neighbors, Italy and Spain, have rates that are roughly double France's. But as we will see, the underlying economics are not that much different for the three countries, and you can make a good case that France’s trajectory may be the worst.
"No: France Is Not Bankrupt" – Really?
We will start with a remarkable example of both hubris and economic ignorance published earlier this year in Le Monde. Under the headline "No: France Is Not Bankrupt," Bruno Moschetto, a professor of economics at the University of Paris I and HEC, made the following case. He apparently wrote this with a straight face. If you are not alone, please try not to giggle out loud and annoy people around you. (Hat tip to my good friend Mike Shedlock.)
No, France is not bankrupt .... The claim is untrue economically and financially. France is not and will not bankrupt because it would then be in a state of insolvency.
A state cannot be bankrupt, in its own currency, to foreigners and residents, since the latter would be invited to meet its debt by an immediate increase in taxation.
In abstract, the state is its citizens, and the citizens are the guarantors of obligations of the state. In the final analysis, "The state is us." To be in a state of suspension of payments, a state would have to be indebted in a foreign currency, unable to deal with foreign currency liabilities in that currency….
Ultimately our leaders have all the financial and political means, through the levying of taxes, to be facing our deadlines in euros. And besides, our lenders regularly renew their confidence, and rates have never been lower.
To continue reading this article from Thoughts from the Frontline – a free weekly publication by John Mauldin, renowned financial expert, best-selling author, and Chairman of Mauldin Economics – please click here.
Sunday, August 25, 2013
Trading the "Opening Gap" in the Crude Oil Market
A few days ago we posted a compelling video explaining two unique
benefits of trading the crude oil market. If you missed it, here it is again.
On Wednesday, August 28th, our trading partners at Master The Gap will share a comprehensive research study for trading the opening gap in oil.
Learn More Now
During this 1 hour event, a wide range of time frames and scenarios will be reviewed showing what has worked best over the past 6+ years. Detailed templates will be included that can be used to create your own actionable gap trading blueprints.
Whether you are already trading oil or interested in starting, this special event and research study can help you create a solid trading plan based on what has worked over the past 1500+ trading days.
Get Started Today!
So why not learn how to trade Crude Oil with history on your side?
On Wednesday, August 28th, our trading partners at Master The Gap will share a comprehensive research study for trading the opening gap in oil.
Learn More Now
During this 1 hour event, a wide range of time frames and scenarios will be reviewed showing what has worked best over the past 6+ years. Detailed templates will be included that can be used to create your own actionable gap trading blueprints.
Whether you are already trading oil or interested in starting, this special event and research study can help you create a solid trading plan based on what has worked over the past 1500+ trading days.
Get Started Today!
So why not learn how to trade Crude Oil with history on your side?
Friday, August 23, 2013
Crude Oil Shakes off the Nasdaq Blues and Ballmer News to Finish Higher
October crude oil closed higher on Friday. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 102.22 would confirm that a double top has been posted. Closes above July's high crossing at 108.93 would renew this summer's rally while opening the door for a possible test of weekly resistance crossing at 110.55 later this summer. First resistance is July's high crossing at 108.93. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 110.55. First support is the reaction low crossing at 102.22. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the April-July rally crossing at 100.27.
The September S&P 500 closed higher on Friday as it extended Thursday's key reversal up. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 1676.40 would confirm that a short term low has been posted. If September resumes the decline off August's high, the 50% retracement level of the June-August rally crossing at 1629.45 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 1661.17. Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 1676.40. First support is Thursday's low crossing at 1631.70. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the June-August rally crossing at 1629.45.
October gold closed higher on Friday renewing the rally off June's low. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If October extends the aforementioned rally, June's high crossing at 1424.00 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 1333.70 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 1399.40. Second resistance is June's high crossing at 1424.00. First support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 1333.70. Second resistance is the reaction low crossing at 1272.10.
September Henry natural gas closed lower due to profit taking on Friday as it consolidates some of this month's rally. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If September extends this month's rally, the 38% retracement level of the May-August decline crossing at 3.662 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 3.473 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 3.562. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the May-August decline crossing at 3.662. First support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 3.473. Second support is August's low crossing at 3.129.
Check out the Day Trading History of 16 Major Candlestick Patterns
The September S&P 500 closed higher on Friday as it extended Thursday's key reversal up. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 1676.40 would confirm that a short term low has been posted. If September resumes the decline off August's high, the 50% retracement level of the June-August rally crossing at 1629.45 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 1661.17. Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 1676.40. First support is Thursday's low crossing at 1631.70. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the June-August rally crossing at 1629.45.
October gold closed higher on Friday renewing the rally off June's low. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If October extends the aforementioned rally, June's high crossing at 1424.00 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 1333.70 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 1399.40. Second resistance is June's high crossing at 1424.00. First support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 1333.70. Second resistance is the reaction low crossing at 1272.10.
September Henry natural gas closed lower due to profit taking on Friday as it consolidates some of this month's rally. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If September extends this month's rally, the 38% retracement level of the May-August decline crossing at 3.662 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 3.473 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 3.562. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the May-August decline crossing at 3.662. First support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 3.473. Second support is August's low crossing at 3.129.
Check out the Day Trading History of 16 Major Candlestick Patterns
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Thursday, August 22, 2013
NASDAQ Flash Freeze and Digesting the FOMC Minutes
The U.S. stock indexes closed higher today. The Nasdaq was shut down for three hours in the afternoon, and that took some buying interest away from all the indexes. The stock index bulls still have the overall near term technical advantage, but are fading. The market place had some time to digest Wednesday afternoon's FOMC minutes that revealed no clear consensus from FOMC members on when to start to wind down the Fed's monthly bond buying program, also known as quantitative easing.
While the minutes were not all that different from the last minutes of the FOMC that were released several weeks ago, the “take away” the market place garnered from this latest Fed event was that “tapering” of quantitative easing is coming, and likely sooner rather than later. The FOMC minutes reinforced ideas that the long, long road of very easy money from the world's major central banks will reach an end in the coming months. Such was deemed bullish for the U.S. dollar, and bearish for world bond markets and periphery currencies. U.S. 10 year note yields hit a two year high of 2.925% overnight. German and U.K. bond yields also hit multi year highs overnight. Asian currency and financial markets remained strained Thursday.
The Indian rupee and Turkish lira hit new record lows versus the U.S. dollar Thursday. Indian and Indonesian central bank officials have taken steps to stabilize their currencies, but with only very limited success. There are worries about an “Asian contagion” that has in the past roiled markets worldwide. Rising interest rates in the major world economies have put pressure on the periphery currencies. Chinese manufacturing data Thursday showed improvement from the prior month.
The HSBC purchasing managers index rose to 50.1 in August from 47.7 in July. A reading over 50.0 suggests economic growth. China is the world's second- largest economy, but the leading worldwide importer of many key raw commodities. The China data somewhat assuaged the Asian markets, but the concerns of an Asian contagion outweighed the positive China data. Traders and investors have moved the ongoing Egypt unrest to the back burner for the moment, as there are no major, new developments there.
However, any escalation in violence is likely to impact the market place. News reports that Syria has used chemical weapons against its civilians, with hundreds killed, is a matter that will be closely monitored by the market place, and is yet another geopolitical hotspot that could flare up to become a major markets factor.
So why not consider adding this simple set up in the Crude Oil market?
While the minutes were not all that different from the last minutes of the FOMC that were released several weeks ago, the “take away” the market place garnered from this latest Fed event was that “tapering” of quantitative easing is coming, and likely sooner rather than later. The FOMC minutes reinforced ideas that the long, long road of very easy money from the world's major central banks will reach an end in the coming months. Such was deemed bullish for the U.S. dollar, and bearish for world bond markets and periphery currencies. U.S. 10 year note yields hit a two year high of 2.925% overnight. German and U.K. bond yields also hit multi year highs overnight. Asian currency and financial markets remained strained Thursday.
The Indian rupee and Turkish lira hit new record lows versus the U.S. dollar Thursday. Indian and Indonesian central bank officials have taken steps to stabilize their currencies, but with only very limited success. There are worries about an “Asian contagion” that has in the past roiled markets worldwide. Rising interest rates in the major world economies have put pressure on the periphery currencies. Chinese manufacturing data Thursday showed improvement from the prior month.
The HSBC purchasing managers index rose to 50.1 in August from 47.7 in July. A reading over 50.0 suggests economic growth. China is the world's second- largest economy, but the leading worldwide importer of many key raw commodities. The China data somewhat assuaged the Asian markets, but the concerns of an Asian contagion outweighed the positive China data. Traders and investors have moved the ongoing Egypt unrest to the back burner for the moment, as there are no major, new developments there.
However, any escalation in violence is likely to impact the market place. News reports that Syria has used chemical weapons against its civilians, with hundreds killed, is a matter that will be closely monitored by the market place, and is yet another geopolitical hotspot that could flare up to become a major markets factor.
So why not consider adding this simple set up in the Crude Oil market?
Wednesday, August 21, 2013
"Beating the Market Makers" webinar replay.....Can you be on the same side of the trade?
John has decided to replay Tuesdays wildly popular "Beating the Market Makers" webinar on Thursday August 22nd at 2 p.m.. Our trading partner John Carter of Simpler Options is going to teach you more in one hour, for NO COST, then you could learn in 3 months. John is going to show us in detail how he uses a weekly options trading method that puts you on the same side of a trade as the market makers. A good place to be.
Over 10,000 traders watched the live webinar on Tuesday and John does limit seating so sign up right away before traders fill all of the slots.
Just Click here to Register Now
Here's what he'll be covering...
- How to be on the same side as the Market Maker
- How to protect yourself in a trade
- How to pick the right stock at the right time
- What Wall Street doesn't want you to know about weekly options
- The one simple trick to put the odds in your favor
And much more......
This timely webinar replay will take place on Thursday, August 22nd at 2:00PM Eastern Time.
Click here to register
After you register you will receive reminder emails automatically so you don't miss the webinar. I don't know if they'll be recording this, or if he'll ever share this information again, so don't miss out.
We'll see you in this free training class, then we'll see you in the markets. Will you be trading with us....or against us?
Ray @ The Crude Oil Trader
Market Makers.....Can you be on the same side of the trade?
Over 10,000 traders watched the live webinar on Tuesday and John does limit seating so sign up right away before traders fill all of the slots.
Just Click here to Register Now
Here's what he'll be covering...
- How to be on the same side as the Market Maker
- How to protect yourself in a trade
- How to pick the right stock at the right time
- What Wall Street doesn't want you to know about weekly options
- The one simple trick to put the odds in your favor
And much more......
This timely webinar replay will take place on Thursday, August 22nd at 2:00PM Eastern Time.
Click here to register
After you register you will receive reminder emails automatically so you don't miss the webinar. I don't know if they'll be recording this, or if he'll ever share this information again, so don't miss out.
We'll see you in this free training class, then we'll see you in the markets. Will you be trading with us....or against us?
Ray @ The Crude Oil Trader
Market Makers.....Can you be on the same side of the trade?
Andrey Dashkov: Peak Gold
By Andrey Dashkov, Research Analyst
In the mining business, it is said that grade is king. A high-grade project attracts attention and money. High grade drill intercepts can send an exploration company's stock price higher by an order of magnitude. As a project moves to the development stage, the higher the grade, the more robust the projected economics of a project. And for a mine in production, the higher the grade, the more technical sins and price fluctuations it can survive.
It is also said that the "low hanging fruit" of high-grade deposits has all been picked, forcing miners to put lower-grade material into production.
You could call it Peak Gold.....and argue that the peak is already behind us. Let's test that claim and give it some context.
One of the ways to look at grades is to compare today's highest-grade gold mines to those from the past. We pulled grade data from the world's ten highest grade gold mines for the following chart.
As of last year, grades at the richest mines have fallen an average of 20% since 1998. However, except for 2003, when the numbers were influenced by the Natividad gold/silver project (average grade 317.6 g/t Au) and Jerritt Canyon (245.2 g/t Au), the fourteen-year trend is relatively stable and not so steeply declining. The spike in 2003 looks more like an outlier than Peak Gold.
However, these results don't provide much insight into the resource sector as a whole, one reason being that the highest-grade mines have vastly different production profiles.
For example, Natividad—owned by CompañÃa Minera Natividad y Anexas—produced over 1 million ounces in 2003 from ore grading over 300 g/t gold, while the San Pablo mine owned by DynaResource de Mexico produced only 5,000 ounces of gold from 25 g/t Au ore in the same year.
This made San Pablo one of the world's ten highest-grade operations in 2003, but its impact on global gold supply was minimal. In short, the group is too diverse to draw any solid conclusions.
We then turned to the world's top 10 largest operations, a more representative operation, and tallied their grades since 1998.
The picture here is more telling. Since 1998, gold grades of the world's top ten operations have fallen from 4.6 g/t gold in 1998 to 1.1 g/t gold in 2012.
This does indeed look like Peak Gold, in terms of the easier-to-find, higher-grade production having already peaked, but it's not as concerning as you might think. As gold prices increased from $302 per ounce at the end of 1998 to the latest price of $1,377, both low-grade areas of existing operations and new projects whose grades were previously unprofitable became potential winners.
Expanding existing operations into lower-grade zones near an existing operation is the cheapest way to increase revenue in a rising gold price environment. So many companies did just that.
Indeed, the largest gold operations—the type we included in the above chart—would be the first ones to drop their gold grades when prices are higher, simply due to the fact that what they lose in grade they can make up in tonnage run through existing processing facilities. Larger size allows lower-grade material to be profitable because of economies of scale. New technologies have helped to make lower-grade deposits economic as well.
So, at least until 2011, the conventional wisdom of "grade is king" was being replaced by "size is king."
However, production costs have been increasing as well—and have continued increasing even as metals prices have retreated in recent years. Rising operating costs and capital misallocations (growth for growth's sake, for example) are at least partly to blame for miners' underperformance this year.
Suddenly, grade seems to be recovering its crown. It remains to be seen whether more high-grade discoveries can actually be made, or whether Peak Gold is actually behind us.
The Takeaway
Truth is, there is no king. Grade and size, although among the most important variables in the mining business, tell only part of the story. Neither higher grades nor monster size prove profitability by themselves—the margin they generate at a given point in time is what matters most. And then what the company does with its income matters, too.
It's true that high enough grade can trump all other factors in a mining project, but it's the task of a company's management to navigate the changing environment, control operating costs, and oversee the company's growth strategy so that it creates shareholder value.
The resource sector has had a sober awakening, and now we see many companies changing their priorities from expansion to profitability, which depends on many parameters in addition to grade. This is a good thing.
As for Peak Gold, if that does indeed turn out to be behind us, the big, bulk-tonnage low-grade deposits that are falling out of favor today will become prime assets in the future. It'll either be that or go without.
Times may be tough, but the story of the current gold bull cycle isn't done being written. The better companies will survive the downturn and thrive in the next chapter. Identifying these is the ongoing focus of our work.
How about a project that's high grade and big? We recommended a new producer that has such an asset, and it hasn't been this cheap since its IPO. Find out who it is in the August issue of Casey International Speculator. Start your risk-free trial with 100% money-back guarantee here. |
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Know the Zone & Improve Your Gap Trading
Guest writer today is our trading partner Scott Andrews. If you are not familiar with Scott's work this will be a great primer on "gap trading".
I am a gap trader. Specifically, I 'fade' the opening gap (i.e. go short when the gap is up or long when the gap is down). My first research breakthrough many years ago was in recognizing that gap selection was the “door” to making profits and the “key” to that door was to focus on the location of the opening price.
Using the prior day's direction (up or down) and the open, high, low, and closing prices, I created ten “zones” and each provides tremendous insight into the probability of a gap filling or not. My selection strategy has evolved over the years to include market conditions, patterns and seasonality, but zones remain the foundation of my gap fade selection criteria.
So why do opening zones work? They inherently incorporate :
* proven support and resistance levels
* short term trend
* overnight bias
* gap size
* trader psychologically
Together these five elements combine to create a wide range of gap fade setups that vary from highly probable to highly risky for any market. Since opening gaps in general have a strong tendency to trade back to the prior day's closing price (65-70%), the name of the game is not trying to catch all of the winners, but rather to avoid most of the losers. And that is what opening zones do very well.
So why do you think gaps in the U-L zone (bottom right of the Gap Zone Map) show such a low historical win rate (48%)? I believe it's because gaps opening in this zone are catching traders positioned to the long side off guard, triggering many sell stops in the process. Plus, such an obvious reversal from the prior day surely attracts new short sellers who want to jump on board the beginning of a new potential trend. I've nicknamed this zone the “BLUD” zone for obvious reasons, plus it's easy to remember: "Below the Low of an Up Day."
Whether you trade the opening gap as a setup or just want to improve the timing of your swing trade entries and exits, you will do a better job, if you pay attention to the opening zone next time. And by the way, gap zones work great for not only the indices, but individual stocks and commodity markets like Corn and Oil too.
Good trading and good gapping!
You may also be interested in watching Scott’s short video on the The Power of Diversification. During this short, compelling video, Scott explains:
* Why asset diversification is not enough
* 7 ways traders can diversify
* The right vs. wrong way to diversify
* Equity curve example (the power of complementary strategies)
And much more
Watch This Video Now
I am a gap trader. Specifically, I 'fade' the opening gap (i.e. go short when the gap is up or long when the gap is down). My first research breakthrough many years ago was in recognizing that gap selection was the “door” to making profits and the “key” to that door was to focus on the location of the opening price.
Using the prior day's direction (up or down) and the open, high, low, and closing prices, I created ten “zones” and each provides tremendous insight into the probability of a gap filling or not. My selection strategy has evolved over the years to include market conditions, patterns and seasonality, but zones remain the foundation of my gap fade selection criteria.
So why do opening zones work? They inherently incorporate :
* proven support and resistance levels
* short term trend
* overnight bias
* gap size
* trader psychologically
Together these five elements combine to create a wide range of gap fade setups that vary from highly probable to highly risky for any market. Since opening gaps in general have a strong tendency to trade back to the prior day's closing price (65-70%), the name of the game is not trying to catch all of the winners, but rather to avoid most of the losers. And that is what opening zones do very well.
So why do you think gaps in the U-L zone (bottom right of the Gap Zone Map) show such a low historical win rate (48%)? I believe it's because gaps opening in this zone are catching traders positioned to the long side off guard, triggering many sell stops in the process. Plus, such an obvious reversal from the prior day surely attracts new short sellers who want to jump on board the beginning of a new potential trend. I've nicknamed this zone the “BLUD” zone for obvious reasons, plus it's easy to remember: "Below the Low of an Up Day."
Whether you trade the opening gap as a setup or just want to improve the timing of your swing trade entries and exits, you will do a better job, if you pay attention to the opening zone next time. And by the way, gap zones work great for not only the indices, but individual stocks and commodity markets like Corn and Oil too.
Good trading and good gapping!
You may also be interested in watching Scott’s short video on the The Power of Diversification. During this short, compelling video, Scott explains:
* Why asset diversification is not enough
* 7 ways traders can diversify
* The right vs. wrong way to diversify
* Equity curve example (the power of complementary strategies)
And much more
Watch This Video Now
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