SPY Expectations for the Rest of September

Research Highlights....

* Over the past 28 years, the SPY has gained an average of 

   3.45% in 15 of those years; it has fallen by 6.42% in the 

   other 13 years. 

* The critical support level for SPY is 332.85. If the SPY finds

   support at this level then you can expect continued, 

   moderate price increases. 

* Prepare for a moderate increase in volatility for the rest of September – watch the VIX.

My research team and I have been pouring over the charts in an effort to attempt to identify any support or weakness related to the increase in volatility over the past 7+ trading days. The VIX is currently at 29.71 after reaching a high of 38.28. We believe the increased price volatility is here to stay – at least through the end of 2020. This means skilled technical traders should prepare for some potentially large and aggressive price swings over the next few weeks and months.

September 11th and Historical Price Modeling

As we come to September 11, 2020, and reflect on the 9/11 terrorist attacks, we become more centered on what really matters in life for most of us – family, friends, health, safety, and opportunity. Even though we near a potential rotation in the market, we must never lose focus on these most essential components of our lives....Continue Reading Here.

Crude Oil Breaks Lower - Sparking Fears of Another Sub $30 Price Collapse

Research Highlights....

* Breakdown in Crude Oil sparks talk of sub $30 price 

   targets. 

* Initial support likely near $32 to $33. 

* Predictive Modeling suggests deeper price lows may be 

   reached before November 2020.

Have you been paying attention to Crude Oil recently? Prices have collapsed over -15% from the recent highs near $43.78. You may remember a research article I posted originally in July 2019 suggesting a big breakdown in Crude Oil was going to take place in early 2020 and extreme volatility was likely between February 2020 and April 2020. Our researchers predicted the following within that research article:

“If our ADL predictive modeling is correct, we will see rotation between $47 and $64 over the next 3+ months before a breakdown in price hits in November 2019. This will be followed by two fairly narrow price range months (December 2019 and January 2020) where oil prices will tighten near $45 to $50. After that tightening, we believe an extremely volatile price move will happen in February through April 2020 that could see oil prices trade as low as $22 and as high as $51 over a two to three-month span.”

Then, in early March 2020, we published this follow up article on our Crude Oil predictions. Within that article, we updated our analysis to include the following statement:

“If our research is correct, Crude oil may find a bottom somewhere near $17 to $24, the potential rally back up to somewhere above $37 - 41 ppb before staging another massive selloff. The massive volatility suggested by the ADL system also suggests a broad price range over the next 60+ days.”....Continue Reading Here.

Traders Dreams Come True - Big Technical Price Swings Pending on the SP500

:

Research Highlights....

* A potentially critical price inflection point and technical

   pattern setup that has nearly completed and validated over

   the past few days, weeks, and months.

* Potential flag/pennant formation on our Custom Valuations

   Index Weekly Chart shows a possible 11% to 16% 9 or  

   more) downside price correction in SPY.

* Fibonacci Price Modeling system’s projects SPY downside

   target level near $284.50 before a bounce.

Over the past few weeks and months, my team and I have published a series of research articles suggesting the continued market melt up was driven by speculation and the U.S. Fed’s policies and support for the markets. We’ve also highlighted a number of technical patterns that have setup within various symbols that have generated strong warnings of a potential price reversal over the past few weeks. The biggest pattern has been the Head-and-Shoulders price patterns. The sudden downside price move in the NASDAQ, and other markets, last week caught many traders/investors off-guard. One day after a very strong rally in the US stock markets, the price reversed and sold-off nearly 6% – a shocking reversal of trend. Red Skys in the mornings – Sailors Take Warning....Continue Reading Here.

Should You Be Concerned About the Big Downside Rotation in the U.S. Markets?

Research Highlights:

* Don’t panic. Technical Analysis does not confirm a deeper 

   price correction at this time, nor does this appear to be the Bull     Trap we have been warning about… yet.

* We are waiting until next week to see if price confirms any 

   new trend.

* Volatility should decrease if this is just a moderate price rotation.


Is this the “Bull Trap” setup we have been warning about for some time now? Should traders be concerned about deeper downside price trends or a collapse in the markets?

We believe this current downside price rotation is just a well deserved (and somewhat overdue) price rotation related to the recent advance in stock valuations. Currently, the VIX is moving lower and the volume in the markets is suggesting the deepest part of this price move may be over (for now). Bonds are moving lower while precious metals are moderately higher. We don’t believe this current downside price move has any more momentum left – at least headed into the long holiday weekend.

This Daily INDU chart below highlights two key price levels that are acting as support right now, the 27,525 and 26,000 levels. This recent downside price rotation stalled very close to the 27,525 level and began to rally from those lows....Continue Reading Here.

Dow Jones Utilities Breaking Trend

Research Highlights:

* Dow Theory suggests indices must confirm each other and volume must confirm the trend.

* The new downward trend in the Dow Utilities Index suggests indices are starting to break apart in terms of trending in unison.

* Volume recently has been trailing lower, which suggests the momentum behind these new all-time  highs is weakening.

* If the Utilities Index continues to move lower and we see increased volume in the selling trend, we will     consider the Dow Theory

* Trend component “broken” and expect a major peak/top soon after.

We know some of you are Dow Theory enthusiasts and followers. We follow the Transportation Index as a leading indicator for potential major market trends almost exclusively because of what we have learned from Dow Theory. If you are unfamiliar with Dow Theory, we suggest visiting Investopedia’s summary of this technical theory for a quick refresher. You can also learn more about the primary indicator in Dow Theory here. The two most important aspects of Dow Theory that we are researching today are two components:

Indices Must Confirm Each Other Volume Must Confirm The Trend My researchers and I have identified that the Dow Jones Utility Index has started to break downward in trend, breaking the recent upside price trend. This breakdown in the Utilities Index suggests the Indices are starting to break apart in terms of trending in unison. We have not seen increased volume in the downward trending of the Utility Index yet and we are waiting for this technical trigger to confirm the Breakdown in Dow Theory Trending by watching for the Utility Index to potentially begin a broader downside price move with increased volume. ...Continue Reading Here.

Natural Gas Rally Nearing $2.95 Resistance - May Target $3.75 or Higher

Quietly, as we’ve been focused on Gold, Silver, and other symbols, Natural Gas has rallied above the $2.00 level and is starting to break higher again targeting the $2.95 level. The very deep “rounded bottom” pattern that set up in early 2020 presented a very real opportunity for skilled technical traders by setting up multiple, very deep entry points. We wrote about these setups in a May article when Natural Gas broke $2.00 and again a few weeks ago when NG started its upside breakout move.

The current rally as seen in the chart below appears to be stalling near the $2.50~$2.55 level, which goes all the way back to the Fibonacci Predictive Modeling System trigger levels from April 2020 and October 2020 (see the RED LINES on the chart). We believe any stalling price levels near the $2.55 level will breakout to the upside with a further rally attempting to target the $2.95 level. After that level is reached, there is a potential that a further upside price move may take place, but we would urge skilled traders to consider the $2.85 to $2.95 level as the “pull profit” level. Any further leg higher may, or may not, actually happen....Continue Reading Here.

Precious Metals Cycles Demand Attention

Over the past few weeks and months, my research team and I have been actively publishing this research to help you better understand what is really happening in the markets right now. With Gold trading above $2,000 for the first time and Silver trading near $27.50, skilled traders need to understand the risks in the markets that precious metals are warning of. Think of it like this, as long as Gold continues to trade near or above $1900, the risk levels in the global markets are at extreme levels for traders and investors. If Gold breaks above $2,400, then there is a very real concern that the global markets could be close to some type of decline/collapse event.

1990 TO 2010: SIMILARITIES ABOUND

My research team believes the US stock market has already peaked near the January/February 2018 market highs. Our proprietary index analysis and price modeling systems suggest the US stock market has been buoyed by the U.S. Federal Reserve stimulus and foreign capital inflows (investment) while the US Dollar has strengthened. This trend may continue for a number of weeks or months, but precious metals are already warning that real fear has accelerated to levels we’ve not seen since 2010-2011....Continue Reading Here.

Caution Advised Before Gold Targets $5000 and Silver Targets $100

Tom welcomes Chris, the founder of Technical Traders, back to the program. Chris discusses the enormous short position on silver and why it will take a while to unwind.

To subscribe to our newsletter and get notified of new shows, please visit http://palisaderadio.com Silver has hit his previous targets and appears to be moving higher. He says, “We are now in a bull market for silver,” and he gives us his next targets. More upside remains for the metals, but the broader markets will probably roll over later this year. That will likely spark a sell off and after that correction who knows how high silver and gold can go.

Currently, there is zero fear in this market, and investors are becoming overleveraged. This is typically when everyone gets caught holding the bag, and while the Fed may try, they probably can’t maintain this level of market momentum.

The dollar is beginning to fall, having broken its March lows and appears set up for a significant downtrend.

The problems today are bigger than in 2008, and as the economy worsens, the Fed will attempt to print more, which can only be bullish for metals. Globally, interest in gold due is increasing due to concerns about the economy and policies of central banks.

Time Stamp References:

* Shorts are starting to sweat.
* Silver technicals.
* Timeline for targets.
* Exposure and volatility.
* US Fiscal cliff and the dollar.
* Gold and Silver in a general equity drop.
* Transportation index and signals.
* Trend for oil and possible correction.
* Real estate and commercial in particular.
* Caution from here?


   Watch the Video Here

Silver Begins Big Upside Rally Attempt

The move we saw in Silver early this week to new 6-year high price levels, above $22.60, is quite likely the biggest upside move in Silver since the bottom in March 2020 – after the US stock market collapsed because of the COVID-19 virus event. This new rally in Silver is likely the move we’ve been suggesting to our followers relating to a series of measured upside price moves totaling approximately $5.30 in each advance.

We wrote about these measured price moves in Gold and Silver in this article – Click Here

As traders, watching bonds accelerate moderately higher as the US Dollar falls and the stock market attempts new lofty levels, we are intrigued by the move in metals because it suggests a large segment of investors believe a bubble is nearing very peak valuation levels. The only reason metals, particularly Silver, would be accelerating as it has recently is that traders have suddenly adopted a stronger demand for second stage hedging of risk....Continue Reading Here.

Energy Sets Up Near Major Resistance - Breakdown Pending

Our research team believes Crude Oil and Energy, in general, has stalled near major resistance and maybe setting up a big downside move as the COVID-19 virus continues to roil regional and global economies.

The recent news that the COVID-19 virus cases have skyrocketed suggests further economic shutdowns may push oil prices below $35 ppb over the next few weeks and months. Our researchers believe Oil has already set up a resistance level near $42 and will begin to move lower as concerns about the economic recovery transition through expectations related to oil demand going forward. We believe the renewed global economic demand for oil will present a very real possibility that oil could collapse below $35 ppb over the next 30 days.

We believe this pending downside move in Crude Oil will set up a great trade opportunity in ERY, the Direxion Bear Energy 2x ETF. At this point in time, we are just waiting for the technical confirmation of this trade trigger. Once we receive confirmation from our price modeling systems, we believe ERY may rally 20% to 30% or more from current levels....Continue Reading Here.

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