Crude Oil falls As Supplies Rise, OPEC Cuts Forcast

"Crude Oil Falls As U.S. Supplies Rise To The Highest Since 1990"
Crude oil fell after a government report showed that U.S. stockpiles climbed to the highest level in almost 19 years as demand dropped. Inventories rose 5.67 million barrels to 366.7 million last week, the highest since September 1990, the Energy Department said today....Complete Story

"Energy Stocks Experience Difficult First Quarter"
The S&P 500 Index experienced an 11.7% loss for the first quarter of 2009 while the index's Energy sector generated a slightly worse quarterly performance with a 12.1% loss. Of the S&P 500's ten industry sectors, only Technology produced a positive investor return....Complete Story

"OPEC Cuts 2009 Oil Demand Forecast As World Economy Contracts"
The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries cut its forecast for oil demand this year for an eighth successive month as the economic slowdown in the world’s biggest oil consumers worsens. The estimate for 2009 global demand was lowered by 430,000 barrels a day....Complete Story

Crude Oil Higher Overnight, Will Equities Bring Oil Down?

May crude oil was higher overnight due to short covering as it consolidates some of this week's decline.

However, stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term.

Closes below the reaction low crossing at 47.26 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted.

Closes above March's high crossing at 54.66 are needed to confirm an upside breakout of the current consolidation pattern.

First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 53.90.
Second resistance is March's high crossing at 54.66.

First support is last Wednesday's low crossing at 47.37.
Second support is the reaction low crossing at 47.26.

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The June S&P 500 index was lower due to profit taking overnight as it consolidates some of its recent gains. Stochastics and the RSI remain overbought.

If June extends the rally off March's low, February's high crossing at 867.50 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 816.28 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted.

Wednesday's daily pivot point is 845, weekly pivot is 837.

First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 861.30.
Second resistance is February's high crossing at 867.50.

First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 833.84.
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 816.28.

The June S&P 500 Index was down 1.10 points. at 839.20 as of 6:01 AM CST. Overnight action sets the stage for a lower opening by the June S&P 500 index when the day session begins later this morning.

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The June Dollar was lower overnight and is poised to extend Monday's decline. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term.

If June extends this week's decline, last Monday's low crossing at 84.10 is the next downside target. Closes below last Monday's low would open the door for a possible test of March's low crossing at 83.15. Closes above last Thursday's high crossing at 86.24 would open the door for additional short covering gains during April.

First resistance is last Thursday's high crossing at 86.24.
Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 86.61.

First support is last Monday's low crossing at 84.10.
Second support is March's low crossing at 83.14.

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10:30 AM ET. Apr 10..US Energy Dept Oil Inventories

.....Crude Oil Stocks (previous 361M)

.....Crude Oil Stocks (Net Change) (expected +2.1M; previous +1.6M)

.....Gasoline Stocks (previous 217.4M)

.....Gasoline Stocks (Net Change) (expected -500K; previous +656K)

.....Distillate Stocks (previous 140.7M)

.....Distillate Stocks (Net Change) (expected -700K; previous -3.3M)

.....Refinery Usage (expected 82.1%; previous 81.8%)

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Crude Oil Falls On Weak Retail Numbers, OPEC Thwarted By Brazil and Russia

"Crude Oil Falls After U.S. Retail Sales Unexpectedly Drop"
Crude oil fell after a report showed that retail sales in the U.S., the world’s biggest energy consuming country, unexpectedly declined in March. The oil market retreated after the Commerce Department reported that sales dropped 1.1 percent. Prices paid to U.S. producers decreased in March after two months of gains, a Labor Department report showed....Complete Story

"World Awash in Oil: Demand Lacking Says IEA"
On Friday the International Energy Agency (IEA) cut its forecast for global oil demand by one million barrels per day (b/d) to 83.4 million b/d. That means the world will be using approximately 2.4 million b/d less than in 2008, or roughly a 3% decline from a year ago. This matches the first year decline experienced during the 1979-1983 period, but the IEA does not....Complete Story

"OPEC Cuts Thwarted as Brazil, Russia Grab U.S. Market"
As OPEC nations make their biggest oil production cuts on record, Brazil, Russia and the U.S. are pumping more, threatening to send crude back below $50 a barrel as demand slows. U.S. imports from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries fell 818,000 barrels a day, or 14 percent, to 5.02 million in January from a year earlier....Complete Story

"Qatar Energy Minister Says Oil Between $40-50/Barrel Realistic"
Qatar's Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Energy and Industry Abdullah al-Attiya said on Monday that oil prices between $40 and $50 per barrel are realistic under the current global financial crisis. Speaking to reporters on the sidelines of the International Energy Forum....Complete Story

Crude Oil Higher Overnight On Short Covering

May crude oil was higher overnight due to short covering as it consolidates some of Monday's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bullish hinting that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

If May extends last Thursday's rally, March's high crossing at 54.66 then January's high crossing at 58.31 are the next upside targets. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 47.26 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted.

First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 53.90.
Second resistance is March's high crossing at 54.66.

First support is last Wednesday's low crossing at 47.37.
Second support is the reaction low crossing at 47.26.

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The June S&P 500 index was steady to lower due to profit taking overnight as it consolidates some of its recent gains. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

If June extends the rally off March's low, February's high crossing at 867.50 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 813.68 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted.

First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 861.30.
Second resistance is February's high crossing at 867.50.

First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 830.56.
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 813.66.

The June S&P 500 Index was down 2.10 points. at 851.90 as of 5:58 AM CST. Overnight action sets the stage for a steady to lower opening by the June S&P 500 index when the day session begins later this morning.

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The June Dollar was higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates some of Monday's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral hinting that a short term top might be in or is near.

If June renews last week's rally, the reaction high crossing at 86.61 is the next upside target. Closes below last Monday's low would open the door for a possible test of March's low crossing at 83.15.

First resistance is last Thursday's high crossing at 86.24.
Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 86.61.

First support is last Monday's low crossing at 84.10.
Second support is March's low crossing at 83.14.

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4:30 PM ET. Apr 10...API Oil Industry Report

.....................Crude Stocks (Net Change) (previous +3.2M)

.....................Gasoline Stocks (Net Change) (previous -451K)

.....................Distillate Stocks (Net Change) (previous +1.7M)

.....................Refinery Runs (previous 81.8%)

Crude Oil Bulls and Bears Appear To Be On Level Playing Field

May crude oil closed down $2.17 at $50.07 a barrel today. Prices closed nearer the session low today. Trading has turned choppy. The key "outside markets" were mixed for crude during the day, as the U.S. dollar was sharply lower but equities prices were also weaker. Bulls and bears are still on a level near term technical playing field amid choppy trading conditions.

The June U.S. dollar index closed down 135 points at 84.72 today. Prices closed near the session low today. Bulls faded badly today. Bears have regained the slight near term technical advantage.

The U.S. stock indexes closed mixed today and nearer their session highs after being under solid pressure in the early going. The bulls still have some upside near term technical momentum, but need to show more power soon. There are early clues that major market lows are in place.

IEA Cuts Demand Forecast to Five Year Low, Sends Crude Oil Lower

"Crude Oil Falls After IEA Cuts Demand Forecast to Five Year Low"

Crude oil fell the most in two weeks after an International Energy Agency report showed that 2009 demand may slump to the lowest level in five years as factories shut and car sales tumble amid a global recession.

Consumption will decline 2.4 million barrels a day this year, about the same amount that Iraq produces, to 83.4 million barrels a day, according to the IEA report on April 10. U.S. crude oil supplies are at their highest since July 1993, the Energy Department said on April 8....Complete Story

Crude Oil Opens Lower Monday Morning

May crude oil was lower due to profit taking overnight as it consolidates some of last Thursday's rally.

Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near term. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 47.26 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted.

If May extends last Thursday's rally, March's high crossing at 54.66 then January's high crossing at 58.31 are the next upside targets.

Monday's pivot point, our line in the sand is 51.50.

First resistance is last Friday's high crossing at 53.90.
Second resistance is March's high crossing at 54.66.

First support is last Wednesday's low crossing at 47.37.
Second support is the reaction low crossing at 47.26.

Crude oil appears to be range bound at this point in the 47 to 54 area. Most traders should be looking to go long on all dips into the 47 to 48 area while less conservative traders may also want to short crude in the 53 to 54 area.

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The June S&P 500 index was lower due to profit taking overnight as it consolidates some of last Thursday's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought, diverging but are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

The June S&P 500 Index was down 7.50 points. at 845.10 as of 5:53 AM CST. Overnight action sets the stage for a lower opening by the June S&P 500 index when the day session begins later this morning.

If June extends the rally off March's low, February's high crossing at 867.50 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 808.32 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted.

Our SP 500 pivot point, our line in the sand is 843.50. If we break below 843 in the regular trading session we will go short for our SP day trade.

First resistance is last Thursday's high crossing at 854.50.
Second resistance is February's high crossing at 867.50.

First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 822.91.
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 808.32.

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The June Dollar was lower overnight as it consolidates some of last week's rally. Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

If June extends last week's rally, the reaction high crossing at 86.61 is the next upside target. Closes below last Monday's low would open the door for a possible test of March's low crossing at 83.15.

First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 86.22.
Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 86.61.

First support is last Monday's low crossing at 84.10.
Second support is March's low crossing at 83.14.

China May Sign $10 Billion Oil Deal With Kazakhstan

"China, Kazakhstan May Sign $10 Billion Accord for Oil"
China, the world’s second biggest energy consumer, may agree next week on lending $10 billion to Kazakhstan in return for the right to take a stake in an oil producer in the Central Asian country.

China National Petroleum Corp. plans to buy a minority holding in AO Mangistaumunaigas from state-run KazMunaiGaz National Co., a China National official said yesterday. The two nations may sign an accord on April 15 when Kazakh President Nursultan Nazarbayev visits Beijing, the official said, declining to be identified because of internal rules....Complete Story

This Week's Chart For Crude Oil

Chevron Production Rises, IEA Forcast Lowest In Five Years

"IEA Cuts Oil Demand Forecast to Lowest in Five Years"
The International Energy Agency expects global oil demand to decline by 2.4 million barrels a day this year, about the same amount that Iraq produces, as the economic slump reduces consumption to the lowest since 2004. The adviser to 28 nations cut its 2009 forecast....Complete Story

"Petrovietnam Shortlisted to Negotiate Iraq Oil Drilling Contracts"
The National Oil and Gas Group (PetroVietnam) has been short-listed to negotiate on oil drilling contracts at 11 petroleum fields in Iraq, the country's Ministry of Oil said. The list of nine investors was created from 38 firms joining the tender held on December 31, 2008, including....Complete Story

"Chevron Production Rises, Halting Two Year Decline"
Chevron Corp., the second largest U.S. oil company, said production headed for a quarterly gain for the first time since 2006 as new platforms in the Gulf of Mexico and offshore Africa began operation. Chevron pumped the equivalent of 2.645 million barrels....Complete Story

"Saudi To Deepen May Oil Supply Cuts To 2 Asia Buyers"
Saudi Arabia will unexpectedly cut oil supplies to some major Asian refiners next month, suggesting the world's top exporter may be more concerned than some of its OPEC peers about swelling crude inventories....Complete Story