Gold and Crude Oil Shine Compared to the SP500

Commodities have been shining recently as the US Dollar loses its luster for investors. Also the weakening dollar has helped boost equities as a lower US dollar helps the large multi national companies. This report is a quick follow up from the Weekend report showing what the odds were favoring which was higher gold, oil and sp500. As of today each investment is unfolding as planned, once candle at a time.

GLD – Gold ETF Trading
In my last report I pointed out how gold needed to break through its down trendline, the MACD had to crossover and then we needed to wait for a pullback which ends with a reversal candle to the upside. It seems gold is working its way through that process now.

Today’s Pop & Drop is not bullish price action and I expect we see a couple more down/sideways days before higher prices are reached. There are two bullish ways gold could pullback. First one would be a drop to $115 area with below average volume which could form the right shoulder of a reverse head & shoulders pattern, or we could see prices just fade sideways on light volume for 2-4 days before another up move starts.

USO – Oil Trading Fund
Oil just had a 3 day pop and with today’s doji candle the chart is saying it needs a breather. That also falls inline with the price of the US dollar which should continue higher tomorrow (Thursday Aug 5th) putting downward pressure on crude oil.

SPY – SP500 ETF Trading Signals
SP500 had a nice pop on Monday taking it up to the first key resistance level. The best play would have been to buy last Thursday or Friday when it dropped down to support unfortunately the intraday charts at that time were not that healthy looking.

I am not a fan of trading breakouts because so many of them fail and you end up paying a premium for your position and they can end up going against you very quickly. Rather I focus on trying to pick things up at support or sell them at resistance.

If we see the price pause for another 1-4 days on light volume and hold above the support trendline we could have a great low risk entry point with a stop set just below support. Or we could see a pop then pullback to test the breakout level as which point we can take a long position. This play needs to mature a little more.

Mid-Week Gold, Oil and Index Trading Conclusion:
In short, Gold, Oil and the SP500 look ready for a small pullback or some sideways price action. It will be interesting to see how strong the pullback will be on the SP500. The chart pattern and volume while they favor higher prices at the moment, if the support trendline is breached then selling volume will most likely spike and a sharp decline will occur causing the SP500 to drop approximately 3% all the way down to the $109 area.

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Crude Oil Falls on Profit Taking, Bulls Still Hold The Advantahe

Crude oil closed lower due to profit taking on Wednesday as it consolidates some of this week's rally. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If September extends the rally off May's low, the reaction high crossing at 84.50 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 78.14 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 82.97. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 84.50. First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 79.54. Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 78.14.

Natural gas closed higher due to short covering on Wednesday as it consolidates some of this week's decline. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.579 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted. If September renews the rally off July's low, June's high crossing at 5.282 is the next upside target. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 5.007. Second resistance is June's high crossing at 5.282. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 4.625. Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.579.

The U.S. Dollar closed higher due to short covering on Wednesday as it consolidates some of the decline off June's high. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that additional weakness is possible near term. If September extends the decline off June's high, the 62% retracement level of the November-June rally crossing at 80.47 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 82.66 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 81.85. Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 82.66. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 80.56. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the November-June rally crossing at 80.47.

Gold closed higher on Wednesday and above the 20 day moving average crossing at 1189.20 confirming that a short term low has been posted. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If August extends this week's rally, the reaction high crossing at 1218.80 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10 day moving average crossing at 1179.70 would temper the friendly outlook. First resistance is today's high crossing at 1203.00. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 1218.80. First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 1179.70. Second support is last Wednesday's low crossing at 1155.60.

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Phil Flynn: Quantitative Ease Off

The Petroleum markets took a bit of a breather after surging the first few days in August on rising speculation that the Fed worried about anemic Job Growth and a less then sustainable rate of economic activity will revisit the nuclear option and print more money to get the economy moving again. The Wall Street Journal added to this speculation by raising the possibility that the Fed may reinvest the cash it receives when its mortgage bond holdings mature and buy new mortgage or Treasury bonds, instead of allowing its portfolio to shrink gradually, as it is was expected to do.

This speculation drove traders back into the “carry trade” as the dollar tanked against other major currencies most notably the Yen as traders viewed the US recovery softer than in other parts of the globe. Yet despite some less than spectacular data the oil market anyway backed off the easing talk and tried to focus on weak demand.....Read the entire article.

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Natural Gas Daily Technical Outlook For Wednesday

Natural gas was higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates some of this week's decline. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term.

Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.576 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. If September renews the rally off July's low, June's high crossing at 5.282 is the next upside target.

First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 5.007
Second resistance is June's high crossing at 5.282

Wednesday's pivot point for natural gas is 4.696

First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 4.625
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.576

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Crude Oil Daily Technical Outlook Wednesday Morning

Crude oil was lower due to profit taking overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off July's low. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

If September extends the aforementioned rally, the reaction high crossing at 84.50 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 78.12 would confirm that a short term top has been posted.

First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 82.64
Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 84.50

Crude oil's pivot point for Wednesday morning is 82.10

First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 79.49
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 78.12

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New Video: How to Spot Winning Trades

In today's video we share with you how to use one of the many features in MarketClub, our Smart Scan technology. Using Smart Scan, you can easily spot winning stocks, futures, precious metals, and currencies that meet one of 24 preset scanning criteria, including uptrends or downtrends.

As traders we have 3 potential positions we can take at all times: (1) We can be long the market (2) We can be short the market (3) We can be on the sidelines and out of the market (options allow you to do other things but I want to keep it simple today).

Using our Smart Scan technology and filtering out the noise can help find some of the real nuggets that are out there.

As always our videos are free to watch and there are no registration requirements. If you'd like to comment on this video please do so.

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Crude Oil, Natural Gas, Gold and Dollar Commentary For Tuesday Evening

Crude oil closed higher on Tuesday as it extends the rally off May's low. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If September extends the rally off May's low, the reaction high crossing at 84.50 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 77.75 would temper the near term friendly outlook. First resistance is today's high crossing at 82.64. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 84.50. First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 78.94. Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 77.75.

Natural gas closed lower on Tuesday and below the 10 day moving average crossing at 46.76 signaling that a short term top might be in or is near. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.573 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. If September renews the rally off July's low, June's high crossing at 5.282 is the next upside target. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 5.007. Second resistance is June's high crossing at 5.282. First support is today's low crossing at 4.625. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.573.

The U.S. Dollar closed lower on Tuesday as it extends the decline off June's high. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain bearish signaling that additional weakness is possible near term. If September extends the decline off June's high, the 62% retracement level of the November-June rally crossing at 80.47 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 82.81 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 82.10. Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 82.81. First support is today's low crossing at 80.56. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the November-June rally crossing at 80.47.

Gold closed higher on Tuesday as it continues to rebound off the 50% retracement level of this year's rally crossing at 1158.30. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bullish hinting that a short term low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 1189.50 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted. If August renews the decline off June's high, the 62% retracement level of the aforementioned decline crossing at 1132.70 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 1189.50. Second resistance is Monday's high crossing at 1191.80. First support is last Wednesday's low crossing at 1155.60. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the aforementioned decline crossing at 1132.70.

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New Video: No Leaks in This Crude Oil Market

The massive move up in crude oil on Monday created a new dynamic for this in the news market. The move to two month highs completed one of our favorite major technical formations.

In this short video, we share with you two conflicting indicators and which one we are choosing to go with. I think you'll find this video technically interesting as well as educational.

For more trading ideas, visit the Trader's Blog

Please feel free to comment with your thoughts on this market. As always our videos are free to watch and there are no registration requirements needed. Watch "No Leaks in This Crude Oil Market"


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Crude Oil Bulls Take Clear Advantage, Higher Prices Likely

Crude oil was higher overnight as it extends the rally off July's low. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

If September extends the aforementioned rally, the reaction high crossing at 84.50 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 77.71 would confirm that a short term top has been posted.

First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 82.10
Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 84.50

Crude oil pivot point for Tuesday morning is 80.65

First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 78.87
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 77.71

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Natural gas was higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates some of Monday's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short term top might be in or is near.

Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.577 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. If September extends the aforementioned rally, June's high crossing at 5.282 is the next upside target.

First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 5.007
Second resistance is June's high crossing at 5.282

Natural gas pivot point for Tuesday morning is 4.796

First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 4.683
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.577

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Crude Oil, Natural Gas, Gold and Dollar Commentary For Monday Evening

Crude oil closed sharply higher on Monday and above June's high crossing at 80.82 as it renews the rally off May's low. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging but have turned bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If September extends the rally off May's low, the reaction high crossing at 84.50 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 77.26 would temper the near term friendly outlook. First resistance is today's high crossing at 71.77. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 84.50. First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 78.46. Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 77.26.

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Natural gas posted a key reversal down due to profit taking on Monday as it consolidated some of the rally off July's low. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If September extends the aforementioned rally, the reaction high crossing at 5.082 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.575 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 5.007. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 5.082. First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 4.668. Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.575.

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The U.S. Dollar closed lower on Monday as it extends the decline off June's high. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain bearish signaling that additional weakness is possible near term. If September extends the decline off June's high, the 62% retracement level of the November-June rally crossing at 80.47 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 82.98 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 82.33. Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 82.98. First support is today's low crossing at 80.90. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the November-June rally crossing at 80.47.

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Gold closed higher due to short covering on Monday as it continues to rebound off the 50% retracement level of this year's rally crossing at 1158.30. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but turning bullish hinting that a short term low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 1189.90 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted. If August renews the decline off June's high, the 62% retracement level of the aforementioned decline crossing at 1132.70 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 1189.90. Second resistance is today's high crossing at 1191.80. First support is last Wednesday's low crossing at 1155.60. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the aforementioned decline crossing at 1132.70.

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Crude Oil Tops $80 a Barrel for First Time Since May as Equities Rise

Crude oil surged above $81 a barrel for the first time since May as a rally in global equity markets increased speculation the economy is strengthening. Oil jumped as much as 3.6 percent after equities climbed on better than expected earnings and the Institute for Supply Management’s U.S. manufacturing gauge fell less than forecast. The dollar dropped against the euro, boosting the investment appeal of commodities.

“Oil is following the S&P 500,” said Adam Sieminski, chief energy economist at Deutsche Bank AG in Washington. “Fundamentals don’t seem to matter. You don’t need to be an oil analyst anymore. You just need to be a stock market analyst.” Crude for September delivery rose $2.44, or 3.1 percent, to $81.39 a barrel at the 2:30 p.m. close of floor trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Earlier, it touched $81.77, the highest price since May 5. Futures climbed 4.4 percent in July, the biggest monthly gain since March. Prices are up 17 percent from a year ago.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index increased 2 percent to 1,123.86 following positive earnings reports from companies such as Humana Inc. and Oshkosh Corp. It jumped 6.9 percent in July, the biggest monthly advance since July 2009. The Dow Jones Industrial Average strengthened 191.94, or 1.8 percent, to 10,657.88. The MSCI World Index, a gauge of equities in 24 developed nations, rose 2.3 percent to 1,150.79, the highest level since May 13. European stocks climbed to a three-month high on gains among banks and basic resource producers.

“Equities did well in July and profits are generally OK, so people are feeling bullish across the board,” said Michael Lynch, president of Strategic Energy & Economic Research in Winchester, Massachusetts.....Read the entire article.

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Phil Flynn: Re Inflation

More soft economic data and more talk of quantitative easing have commodity markets on fire. Forget about that supply and demand stuff as that is going to be secondary to the financial hedge play that is starting to unfold. Commodities are rising even after it was reported that manufacturing in China contracted for the first time in 16 months. The HSBC China Manufacturing PMI fell to 49.4 in July showing contraction falling from 50.4 in June.

Yet despite that weakness, the dollar takes a drubbing and despite the potential for weaker demand, commodities just continue to rise. Why might that be happening? Now some think that may be because the Chinese will back off further tightening measures or it may be because they think the Chinese will again put their foot on the economic accelerator. Yet the real reason is that the global economy is again slowing, increasing the odds of dollar devaluation. We are seeing commodities move.....Read the entire article.

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Crude Oil and Natural Gas Technical Outlook For Monday Morning

Crude oil was higher overnight and has renewed the rally off July's low. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bullish again signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

If September extends the aforementioned rally, June's high crossing at 80.82 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 77.17 would confirm that a short term top has been posted.

First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 79.90
Second resistance is June's high crossing at 80.82

Crude oil's pivot point for Monday morning is 78.28

First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 78.28
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 77.17

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Natural gas was higher overnight as it extends the rally off July's low. Stochastics and the RSI are becoming overbought but remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

If September extends the aforementioned rally, June's high crossing at 5.282 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.587 would confirm that a short term top has been posted.

First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 5.007
Second resistance is June's high crossing at 5.282

Natural gas pivot point for Monday morning 4.881

First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 4.692
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.587

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How to Find Low Risk SP500, Gold & Oil ETF Setups

As we all know there is an unlimited amount of ways to trade the financial markets. Each person sees the market in a different way, has different skill sets, trading experience and risk tolerance levels. While some individuals create and use complete systems to make money there are some very basic trading strategies which still work well and require nothing more than basic charting, patience and a little money management.

Let me explain:

SPY – SP500 Index Trading Fund
You can clearly see the longer term trend which is down (blue trendine). But from simply drawing a couple trendlines and looking at the MACD (momentum) indicator you can see there is a possible trend reversal taking place. So far the SPY has broken out of its down trendline with a 4 day pop, and it’s now pulled back down to test support. A close below the trend line or the 50MA would be the exit points if the market did start to go south.

The SP500 is still stuck under major resistance, its 200 day moving average. But is trading above key support levels (20MA, 50MA and Trendline). I can feel the tension in the market between traders and we are about to see a big move once a breakout to the upside or down side is established. At this time its best to be in cash or have a small position with a protective stop in place. Once a trend starts there should be some low risk entry points along the way. If we see a strong reversal to the upside On Monday or Tuesday I would expect big buyers would step in to catch this new trend up.

Trading Fund
Looking at the price of gold we can see the trend is still down along with the momentum. A breakout would be the first step towards a possible entry point but I prefer to wait for a pullback after the breakout has taken place. Once we get a test of support I look to enter a position once there is a strong reversal candle to the upside. From there I draw a new support trend line from the previous low and connect it to the new pivot low (bottom of reversal candle). That becomes my new protective stop.

Gold still has some work to do before I would even be interested in taking a long position for a swing trade. But on a short term time frame (intraday charts) gold looks to be forming a low risk setup which I hope unfolds for my subscribers this week.

USO – Crude Oil Trading Fund
Oil has been trading in a large bearish pennant for the past 2 months and it is nearing the apex of this pattern. The longer term picture of oil is bearish but the most recent dotted trend line and the 20/50MA crossover is signaling some strength. Also the momentum for oil is positive and that helps support the price also. Again if this was to breakout to the upside I would wait for a low volume pullback to test the breakout level, then enter on a reversal back up.

Oil is one of the more challenging commodities to trade because it is affected by the US Dollar, Political Events, and Weather. In short, even if you had the analysis and timing correct there are other factors which move the price of oil on a regular basis that could quickly turn the trade against you. That being said, keep trades small when trading oil.

Trading Setups:
In short, trading can be complex, simple or somewhere in between. You can spend 14 hours or 20 minutes a day analyzing it depending on what investments you trade, whether you’re trading full time or just checking up on longer term investments.

This analysis and basic strategy shown above can be profitable if followed correctly and works for stocks, commodities and indexes. It’s just to show how simple one can swing trade the market using very basic analysis. Personally I use a much more complex strategy incorporating 15+ other data points which allows for precise entry and exit points.

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Crude Oil Weekly Technical Outlook For Saturday July 31st

Crude oil edged higher to 79.69 initially last week but retreated sharply. Nevertheless, the retreat was contained at 75.90 and rebounded. Near term outlook is mixed and we'll stay neutral first. on the upside, break of 79.69 will indicate that whole rebound from 64.23 is still in progress for 61.8% projection of 64.23 to 79.38 from 71.09 at 80.45 next. On the downside, break of 75.90 will revive the case that crude oil has topped out at 79.69 already and will flip bias back to the downside for 71.09 support for confirmation.

In the bigger picture, there is no change in the view that rise from 64.23 is a correction to fall from 87.15 only. Hence, even in case of further rally, we'd expect strong resistance below 87.15 high and bring reversal. On the downside, break of 71.09 will be the first signal that whole fall from 87.15 is resuming for another low below 64.23 towards 50% retracement of 33.2 to 87.15 at 60.18

In the long term picture, current development suggests that rebound from 33.2 is finished at 87.15, inside 76.77/90.24 fibo resistance zone as expected. Our view is that fall from 87.15 would develop into the third falling leg of the whole correction from 147.27 and hence, we'd anticipate an eventual break of 33.2 low in the long term as such correction extends.....Nymex Crude Oil Continuous Contract 4 Hours, Daily, Weekly and Monthly Charts.

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Crude Oil and Natural Gas Technical Outlook For Friday Morning

Crude oil was lower overnight as it consolidates some of Thursday's rally. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that a short term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 76.76 would confirm that a short term top has been posted.

If September renews this month's rally, the reaction high crossing at 79.97 is the next upside target.

First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 79.69
Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 79.97

Crude oil's pivot point for Friday morning is 77.90

First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 75.90
Second support is the reaction low crossing at 74.70

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Natural gas was higher overnight as it extends this month's rally. Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

If September extends this month's rally, the reaction high crossing at 4.945 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.571 would temper the near term friendly outlook.

First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 4.876
Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 4.945

Natural gas pivot point for Friday morning is 4.792

First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 4.639
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.571

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Commodities Firm While Equities Fall

Commodities were generally firm after strong European confidence data and bigger than expected decline in initial jobless claims in the US. WTI crude oil price rebounded strongly and pared most of the losses made over the past 2 days amid USD's weakness. The front month contract surged to as high as 78.89 before closing at 78.36, up +1.78%. Natural gas rallied as gas storage rose less than expected in the US while gold price also climbed higher and settled at 1168.4, up +0.69%.

The US Energy Department reported gas inventory added +28 bcf to 2919 bcf in the week ended July 23. Stocks dropped -94 bcf from the same period last year but remained +239 bcf (+8.9%) above the 5 year average of 2680 bcf. Gas price extended the rally for a 4th day and settled at 4.827, up +2.31%.

The dollar plunged to a 12 week low against the euro as economic data in the US has been mixed but biased to the downside while that in the Eurozone has shown improvement after enduring a tough period. At the same time, concerns over sovereign crisis in peripheral European countries continue to diminish as debt-ridden economies have been actively implementing fiscal consolidations measures and economic indicators have been better-than-expected.

Initial jobless claims slipped -11K to 457K (consensus: 460K) in the week ended July 24. The drop also brought the 4 week moving average down to 452.5K, the lowest since the beginning of May, from 457K. While the reading was better than expected, the sluggish decline signals that the job market is improving very slowly.

Stock markets failed to be stimulated by the jobless claims report as corporate earnings in the consumer sector were uninspiring. Kellogg reported a -15% decline in net income to $302M in the quarter ended July 3. The management also revised down its profit forecast for the year due to cereal recall last month. Black & Decker, a diversified worldwide supplier of tools and solutions with sales mainly in the US, revised down its sale guidance for 2010. DJIA and S&P 500 fell -0.3% and -0.4% respectively.

Focus of the day is US' GDP report. The economy probably grew by an annualized +2.5% q/q in 2Q10, an ease from +2.7% in 1Q10 and +5.6% in 4Q09.

From Oil N' Gold Focus Reports

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Phil Flynn: Coming To America!

Everywhere from around the world, the crudes coming to America, every time that flag’s unfurled
crude is coming to America, got a dream to take it there, it’s coming to America. It’s coming to America and coming to America! Give me your poor, your huddles masses but most of all give me your crude. Crude Imports surged hitting the highest level since August of 2006 leading to a whopper 7.3 million barrel build in US Crude supply. This was a far cry from most analysts’ expectations that were looking for a big drop in supply by thinking that Tropical Storm Bonnie would impact imports in a negative fashion.

I on the other hand did predict a build because as I believed that the storm might have the opposite reaction on Imports and it looks like I was right. In fact according to one report we saw from “Gas Oil and Liquids Daily” supplies in Gulf States jumped a whopping 8.18 million barrels, or 4.6%, to 184.6 million. Regional imports gained 1.73 million bpd, or 32%, to a record 7.21 million. The gain was the largest since Gulf traffic resumed after being slowed by hurricanes Gustav and Ike in 2008. The reason that we saw that big jump in the Gulf Coast may have more to do with the aftermath.....Read the entire article.

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Crude Oil Futures Rise for First Time in a Week as Stocks Climb, Dollar Weakens

Crude oil rose for the first time in a week as the dollar weakened against the euro, boosting the appeal of commodities as an alternative investment. Oil gained as much as 2.5 percent as the dollar fell to a 12 week low against the euro. Unemployment also dropped in Germany, and confidence in Europe’s economy improved. Futures gave up some of the gain as U.S. equities declined. “The oil market is being set by the financial markets,” said Tim Evans, an energy analyst at Citi Futures Perspective in New York. “We’re back to that kind of correlation trade and not paying so much attention to niggly details like rising inventories and rising OPEC production.”

Crude oil for September delivery gained $1.39, or 1.8 percent, to $78.38 a barrel at the 2:30 p.m. close of floor trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Prices have risen 24 percent in the past year and are up 3.9 percent this month. The dollar fell against a majority of its most traded counterparts. The euro increased 0.7 percent to $1.3088 in New York. Earlier, it climbed to $1.3107 amid the increased European confidence. The Reuters/Jefferies CRB Index of 19 commodities advanced 1.6 percent to 270.27, the strongest level since May 4. All of the commodities increased. Investment funds appear to be doing “pretty strong buying” of energy commodities, said Tom Bentz, a senior energy analyst at BNP Paribas Commodity Futures Inc. in New York. Gasoline rose 1.6 percent and natural gas 2.4 percent as floor trading closed at 2:30 p.m. in New York.....Read the entire article.

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