Crude Oil Should Open Higher Wednesday, Lower Prices Still Likely Near Term

May crude oil closed higher on Tuesday due to short covering but remains below the 20 day moving average crossing at 49.53.

The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday.

Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term.

If May extends Monday's decline, the reaction low crossing at 43.74 is the next downside target.

Closes above the 10 day moving average crossing at 51.78 would temper the near term bearish outlook.

First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 52.25.
Second resistance is last Thursday's high crossing at 54.66.

First support is today's low crossing at 47.77.
Second support is the reaction low crossing at 43.74.

And since the crude-dollar trade seems to be on......

The June Dollar closed lower on Tuesday due to profit taking as it consolidates some of Monday's rally but remains above the 10 day moving average. The mid range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

If June extends this week's rally, the 20 day moving average crossing at 86.71 is the next upside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 86.71 would confirm that a short term low has been posted.

Closes below the weekly uptrend line crossing near 83.00 would confirm that a major top in the Dollar has been posted while opening the door for a larger degree decline this spring.

First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 86.61.
Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 86.71.

First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 84.79.
Second support is the reaction low crossing at 83.14.

Oil Rises on Stock Rally, Caps Biggest Monthly Gain Since May

"Oil Rises on Stock Rally, Caps Biggest Monthly Gain Since May"
Crude oil rose, heading for its biggest monthly gain since May, as equities increased and a weaker dollar enhanced the appeal of commodities. Oil climbed as much as 3.3 percent after U.S. and European stocks rebounded....Complete Story

SocGen Technical Analyst Says "Oil May Fall to $28 a Barrel"
Crude oil is set to drop to $28 a barrel in New York in the second quarter, according to technical analysis by Societe Generale SA. Prices may rally until meeting resistance at $71 a barrel and....Complete Story

"Petrobras Invests Heavily in Offshore Drilling"
With massive deepwater finds in the pre-salt layer, as well as the Campos and Santos Basins, Brazilian state-owned Petrobras pledged an investment of $174.4 billion for 2009 to 2013. With a firm commitment to....Complete Story

"Kuwait Raises Oil Output Capacity"
OPEC member Kuwait has boosted its oil production capacity to three million barrels per day and aims to raise it to four million by 2020, a top oil executive said on Monday. "We have the capability to....Complete Story

Is The Move In Crude Oil Over?

Crude oil plays such an integral part in our lives whether we care to admit it or not. This one source of energy drives the US economy and indeed the world’s economy.

So what’s ahead for the new black gold? After seeing this market move to its best levels in some time, we have seen a sharp pullback from the recent highs as the crude oil market appears to be mimicking the equity markets.

In our new video we go into detail as to what we think is happening in this market. I think we’ll find the analysis interesting, revealing and above all educational.

Please feel free to comment here on our blog. We’re so happy that traders are sharing their thoughts with our Stock Market Club community.

As always, the video is with our compliments and there is no registration requirements.

Enjoy the video

Crude Oil Prices Higher On Short Covering Overnight

May crude oil was higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates some of Monday's decline but remains below the 20 day moving average crossing at 49.53.

Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term.

If May extends Monday's decline, the reaction low crossing at 43.74 is the next downside target.

Closes above the 10 day moving average crossing at 51.79 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted.

First resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 49.53.
Second resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 51.80.

First support is Monday's low crossing at 48.11.
Second support is the reaction low crossing at 44.72.

4:30 PM ET. Mar 27 API Oil Industry Report

....................Crude Stocks (Net Change) (previous +4.58M)

....................Gasoline Stocks (Net Change) (previous -805K)

....................Distillate Stocks (Net Change) (previous -1.58M)

....................Refinery Runs (previous 82.1%)

Crude Oil Falls Most in Four Weeks as Equities Tumble, Dollar Strengthens

"Iraqi Oil Company Issues Tender To Drill 45 Wells in South Rumaila"
The South Oil Company, an affiliate of the Iraqi Oil Ministry, has issued a new tender to drill 45 oil wells in the country's southern fields in a bid to address a sharp fall in southern oil production, the oil ministry said in its Web site....Complete Story

"Crude Oil Falls Most in Four Weeks as Equities Tumble, Dollar Strengthens"
Crude oil fell the most in four weeks as tumbling equity markets signaled that the recession in major energy-consuming countries may deepen, curbing fuel use....Complete Story

"Austria’s OMV Eyes Emirate’s Oil"
After more than a decade as a partner in Abu Dhabi’s main petrochemicals venture, OMV, Austria’s biggest oil company, is ready to branch into oil and gas production in the emirate....Complete Story

Crude Oil Moving South, Hinting That Short Term High Is In

Pre market Monday morning May crude oil was already down 1.85 breaking through 1st support of 51.83. May crude oil closed lower on Friday due to profit taking as it consolidated some of this month's rally. The low range close set the stage for the lower opening we will get today.

Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish hinting that a short term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 48.97 would confirm that a short term top has been posted.

If May extends this month's rally, January's high crossing at 58.31 is the next upside target.

First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at 54.66.
Second resistance is January's high crossing at 58.31.

First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 51.83.
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 48.97.

Russia To Become China's Biggest Energy Supplier? Active Oil Rigs In The U.S. Drops By 46

"Oil Falls as Dollar's Gain Against the Euro Reduces Appeal of Commodities"
Crude oil in New York fell the most in two weeks as the dollar’s gain against the euro reduced the appeal of commodities to investors and stock markets declined....Complete Story

"Goldman Sachs Says Oil Rally Vulnerable as Demand Drops, Contango Widens"
Oil’s rally to a four-month high is vulnerable to a correction because near-term demand for crude isn’t yet strong enough to support a sustained advance, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said....Complete Story

"Russia Capable of Becoming China's Biggest Energy Supplier"
Russia is fully capable of becoming the biggest energy supplier for China in upcoming 15 years," Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Zhukov said here Friday. Zhukov made the remarks in addressing the China-Russia Investment Forum....Complete Story

"Number Of Active Oil Rigs Drops By 46"
The number of rigs actively exploring for oil and natural gas in Wyoming fell by two this past week. Nationally, the number of such rigs in the United States dropped by 46 this week to 1,039....Complete Story

Crude Oil Trading Signals May Be Turning Bearish

May crude oil closed lower due to profit taking on Friday as it consolidated some of this month's rally. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday.

Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish hinting that a short term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 48.97 would confirm that a short term top has been posted.

If May extends this month's rally, January's high crossing at 58.31 is the next upside target.

First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at 54.66.
Second resistance is January's high crossing at 58.31.

First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 51.83.
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 48.97.

How High Can Crude Oil Rally Given The World Economy

In our new video on the crude oil market we see how this market has been creeping up in value and in now trading over $50 a barrel. The question is "How high can crude oil rally given the world economy?"

Just Click Here To Watch Crude Oil Video

The potential is that crude can go higher as the United States is addicted to oil and cannot at this stage run without it. The same goes for most other countries. Whatever the arguments are for crude oil we think you will find this short video of interest.

The short video outlines the path for crude oil and is free to watch.

We hope you learn something from this video. Feel free to give us your feedback on what you think is going to happen to this market in the future.

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The direction of the S&P 500 is such a big part of our daily research for trading crude oil that I want to include this video on the S&P on the rally we have been experiencing.

Take a look at this short video and see if the rally in the S & P 500 market is for real, or if it's just a rally in a bigger bear market.

Just Click Here To Watch SP 500 Video

Our brand new video details what we think is going on in the equity markets. We also want to share with you the key S & P 500 number that if broken will turbo charge this market.

The video is, as always, free to watch. Please feel free to leave a comment, your comments and feedback are always welcome.

Crude Oil Looks To Open Lower

May crude oil closed higher on Thursday as it extends this month's rally. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

If May extends this month's rally, January's high crossing at 58.31 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 48.67 would confirm that a short term top has been posted.

First resistance is today's high crossing at 54.66.
Second resistance is January's high crossing at 58.31.

First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 51.27.
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 48.67.

Pre market crude oil is already trading down in the 52.69 area. We are going short for a scalp trade against the trend as we look for crude oil to follow the SP 500 down at the opening. Don't get stuck in this trade, we will probably take our profits at the 10 day moving average 51.27.

Crude Oil Closes Higher, Market Conditions Are Overbought

May crude oil closed higher on Thursday as it extends this month's rally. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday.

Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

If May extends this month's rally, January's high crossing at $58.31 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at $48.67 would confirm that a short term top has been posted.

First resistance is today's high crossing at $54.66.
Second resistance is January's high crossing at $58.31.

First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at $51.27.
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at $48.67.

The Battle Insues, Obama and Oil Industry

"Oil, Gasoline Rise as Gains for Equities Signal Strengthening Fuel Demand"
Crude oil rose to the highest in almost four months and gasoline gained as an advancing U.S. stock market signaled that fuel demand will increase....Complete Story

"Obama Revives Battle with Oil Industry"
The Obama administration's push to raise taxes on the oil industry is reigniting a battle the industry fought and won last year....Complete Story

"Petrobras May Compete For Iraqi Oil Deal"
Petrobras could join a U.S. firm and two European companies in competing for a contract to develop Iraq's Nahr Bin Umar oil field....Complete Story

"US Company Halts More Oil Rigs In Venezuela"
U.S oil driller Helmerich & Payne said Wednesday it is continuing to halt operations in Venezuela due to delayed payments from Venezuela's state oil company....Complete Story

Crude Oil Overnight, Do Traders Expect A Lower Inventory Number Today?

May crude oil closed lower on Wednesday as it consolidates some of this month's rally.

The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday.

Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

If May extends this month's rally, January's high crossing at $58.31 is the next upside target.

Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at $48.34 would confirm that a short term top has been posted.

First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at $54.20.
Second resistance is January's high crossing at $58.31.

First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at $50.65.
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at $48.34.

10:30 AM ET. Mar 20 EIA National Gas Inventories, in billion cubic feet

....................Total Working Gas in Storage (previous 1651)

....................Total Working Gas in Storage (Net Change) (previous –30)

Costa Rica Says No To Oil Exploration, Vietnam and Nicaragua Begin Within Weeks

"Costa Rica President Says No to Oil Exploration"
President Oscar Arias this week has affirmed his commitment against oil exploration in Costa Rica. Speaking in front of the Legislative Assembly Monday afternoon to promote a bill regarding rural aqueducts....Complete Story

"PetroChina Sees `Severe Challenges' Ahead After Drop in Profit Last Year"
PetroChina Co., the world’s second- largest company by market value, said it faces “severe challenges” this year after refining losses and a slump in crude oil prices led to its first annual profit drop since 2001....Complete Story

"Exxon, Chevron Count $40 Billion Nightly to Protect Cash From Bank Crisis"
Exxon Mobil Corp. and Chevron Corp., their coffers swollen by last year’s record oil prices, are maneuvering to preserve a combined $40 billion in cash amid a global financial crisis that roiled the banking system....Complete Story

"Nicaragua, Vietnam Ink Oil Deal"
Vietnam will begin prospecting for oil in Nicaragua within four weeks, according to an agreement signed here between both countries´ state run companies....Complete Story

Crude Oil Trades Lower Overnight, Signals Are Still Bullish

May crude oil was lower overnight due to profit taking as it consolidates some of this week's rally.

Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

If May extends this month's rally, January's high crossing at $58.31 is the next upside target.

Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at $48.35 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted.

First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at $54.20.
Second resistance is January's high crossing at $58.31.

First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at $50.67.
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at $48.35.

Crude Oil Closes A Whipsaw Trading Day In The High Range

May crude oil closed slightly higher on Tuesday as it extended this month's rally.

The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday.

Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

If May extends this month's rally, January's high crossing at $58.31 is the next upside target.

Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at $47.93 would confirm that a short term top has been posted.

First resistance is today's high crossing at $54.20.
Second resistance is January's high crossing at $58.31.

First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at $49.76.
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at $47.93.

China Raises Fuel Prices, Apache Admits They Are In M and A Mode

"China Raises Fuel Prices for First Time This Year After Gains for Crude"
China, the world’s second-biggest energy user, raised fuel prices for the first time this year to reflect the gain in global oil prices....Complete Story

"Apache CEO Says Company On The Prowl For Assets"
Independent oil and gas company Apache Corp is actively looking to buy assets, its CEO told a conference on Tuesday. "We are paddling through the water looking for things to buy," Steven Farris, the chief executive of Apache, told the 2009 Howard Weil Energy Conference....Complete Story

"Saudi Pledges To Sustain Oil Investments"
Saudi Aramco will soon sign a memorandum of understanding with Japan's Sumimoto Chemical Co. to develop a second stage of its $10 billion PetroRabigh petrochemicals complex, the head of the state-run Saudi oil giant said Monday....Complete Story

Trend Analysis For DXO Mid Day Tuesday

Mid Day Trend Analysis For DXO is clearly in an uptrend

Smart Scan Chart Analysis is showing some near term weakness. However, this market remains in the confines of a longer term uptrend Uptrend with tight money management stops.

Based on a pre-defined weighted trend formula for chart analysis, DXO scored +70 on a scale from -100 (strong downtrend) to +100 (strong uptrend):

+10.....Last Hour Close Above 5 Hour Moving Average
+15.....New 3 Day High on Monday
+20.....Last Price Above 20 Day Moving Average
+25.....New 3 Week High, Week Ending March 28th
-30.....New 3 Month Low in February
+70.....Total Score

Crude Oil Traders Take Profits Overnight

May crude oil was lower overnight due to profit taking as it consolidates some of Monday's rally.

Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

If May extends this month's rally, January's high crossing at $58.31 is the next upside target.

Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at $47.92 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted.

First resistance is Monday's high crossing at $54.05.
Second resistance is January's high crossing at $58.31.

First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at $49.75.
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at $47.92.

Key Oil Industry Market Events To Watch

4:30 PM ET. Mar 20....API Oil Industry Report

......................Crude Stocks (Net Change) (previous +4.66M)

......................Gasoline Stocks (Net Change) (previous +383K)

......................Distillate Stocks (Net Change) (previous +327K)

......................Refinery Runs (previous 82.3%)

Crude Oil Advances On Rally In Stocks and Hope Of Future Demand Increases

May crude oil closed higher on Monday as it follows the rally in stocks on hopes of future demand increases, extending this month's rally.

The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday even though futures are done has of the time of this post.

Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

If May extends this month's rally, January's high crossing at $58.31 is the next upside target.

Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at $47.38 would confirm that a short term top has been posted.

First resistance is today's high crossing at $54.05.
Second resistance is January's high crossing at $58.31.

First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at $49.09.
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at $47.38.