Thursday, July 23, 2009

Scaling Into the Natural Gas UNG ETF


After this morning’s marginal new recovery high at 14.00, the U.S. Natural Gas Fund ETF (NYSE: UNG) reversed to the downside in reaction to “in-line” inventory data, which pressed indices to an intraday low so far at 13.25. We initiated a 25% long position in our model portfolio at 13.32. If the UNG is unable to consolidate and lift off from the 13.30/25 area, then I will be looking for another loop down towards 13.00, where we will add another 25% long position.....Complete Article

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Crude Oil Bulls Gain Technical Upside Momentum

Crude oil closed up $1.82 at $67.23 a barrel today. Prices closed near the session high and hit a fresh three week high today as bulls did gain some fresh upside technical momentum amid a rallying U.S. stock market. Bulls have the near term technical advantage. A two week old uptrend is in place on the daily bar chart.

Natural gas closed down 21.3 cents at $3.727 today. Prices closed nearer the session low. The bears are still in technical control and gained fresh downside momentum today. The fact that natural gas could not rally amid a general commodity market rally today is a bearish clue.

The U.S. dollar index closed up 9 points at 78.95 today. Prices closed nearer the session high in quieter trading. Short covering in a bear market was featured. Prices hit a fresh nine month low again today. Bears still have the overall near term technical advantage.

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Technical Analysis From Barclays: Oil Set to Fall on Spreads

Brent crude oil is likely to fall below $63 a barrel “in the next few weeks” as the spread between long term contracts widens, according to technical analysts at Barclays Capital. The discount for buying Brent contracts for delivery in December 2009 compared with December 2010 increased today to the most in more than two months. The spread, expressed as a negative number when the market is in contago, is now beneath a trend line connecting the low points during 2009. That may trigger further selling of Brent futures, analysts at the investment bank of Barclays Plc said yesterday in a report.....Complete Story

Oil Stays Above $65, Natural Gas Continues to Rise

Crude oil for September delivery fell slightly to settle above $65 Wednesday on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The price of oil today was tempered by less than stellar numbers coming out of the EIA. Crude oil for September delivery closed at $65.40 Wednesday on the NYMEX, a drop of 21 cents from yesterday’s close. While August deliveries expired yesterday, closing at $64.72, the price of September deliveries closed higher on Tuesday at $65.61.....Complete Story

Crude Oil Declines a Second Day After Fuel Inventories Increase

Crude oil for September delivery declined a second day in New York as rising U.S. fuel inventories dampened optimism for a swift rebound in demand. Gasoline and distillate fuel inventories in the U.S. rose in the week to July 17, the sixth consecutive
increase, while crude supplies fell, according to an Energy Department report yesterday. Japan’s oil imports fell for an eighth month in June. “Demand is weak, and spare capacity is the largest it’s ever been,” said Eugen Weinberg, an analyst at Commerzbank AG in Frankfurt.....Complete Story

Today’s Stock Market Club Trading Triangles

Wednesday, July 22, 2009

Energy Market Commentary For Wednesday Evening

September crude oil closed down $0.36 at $65.25 a barrel today. Prices closed nearer the session high. Bulls still have the near term technical advantage. A two week old uptrend is in place on the daily bar chart.

September natural gas closed up 11.6 cents at $3.962 today. Prices closed nearer the session high and hit a fresh three week high today. Short covering in a bear market was featured. The bears are still in technical control.

September (RBOB) unleaded gasoline closed up 191 points at $1.8150 today. Prices closed nearer the session high today. A two week old uptrend is in place on the daily bar chart.

The September U.S. dollar index closed down 18 points at 78.91 today. Prices closed nearer the session low. Prices hit a fresh nine month low again today. Bears still have the overall near term technical advantage.

Complimentary Trend Analysis For Stock, Futures, And Forex

NYMEX Crude Steadies Above $65

Gaining on the New York Mercantile Exchange for the sixth day in a row, crude oil rallied above $65 on Wednesday as earnings reports continue to beat Wall Street's expectations and government data released today shows crude oil supplies were down last week. U.S. crude oil futures for September delivery settled at $65.40, or 68 cents higher than Tuesday's close. Also gaining, London Brent crude climbed above $65 in seesaw trading, finally closing at more than $67 per barrel.....Complete Story

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Please feel free to leave a comment and let our readers know what you think the direction of the USO is. You are also welcome to join the discussion at our new Facebook Group the Crude Oil Trader.

Natural Gas Futures Gain on Signs of Small Stockpile Increase Share

Natural gas futures advanced in New York on speculation a report tomorrow will show a slowing pace of U.S. stockpile gains. Gas inventories probably rose 66 billion cubic feet last week, based on the median of eight analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg. An increase of that amount would be the smallest since April 17. Stockpiles normally rise between April and November as utilities prepare for higher demand in the winter.
“This week it’s a very different number,” said Teri Viswanath, director of commodities research at Credit Suisse Securities USA in Houston.....Complete Story

Can you learn to trade Crude Oil in just 90 seconds?

Citigroup Recommends Investment in Mexican Oil Giant

Banking giant Citigroup recommends investment in Mexican state run oil company Petroleos Mexicanos (Pemex) via its dollar denominated bonds. The firm urged investors to "hold" the bonds, reversing a previous recommendation to sell, Mexican media reported on Monday. However, the Citigroup did not give its highest rating of "overweight" to Pemex because of some negative operating data, the bank said in a report. Pemex's biggest oil field, Cantarell, has now had five consecutive years of production declines, bringing the company's overall production to its lowest level in 16 years.....Complete Story

Oil Headed Lower on Major Bank Earnings Reports

Crude oil was higher overnight as it extended the rally off last week's low and was challenging the 20 day moving average crossing at 64.67. But is now headed lower as worse then expected earnings from the major banks are giving traders concerns over future demand. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are still possible near term.

Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 64.67 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted. Closes below the 10 day moving average crossing at 61.54 would temper the near term friendly outlook in the market. If August renews the decline off June's high, the 62% retracement level of the February-June rally crossing at 54.97 is the next downside target.

Crude oil's pivot point, our line in the sand is 65.41

First resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 64.67
Second resistance is the overnight high crossing at 65.53

First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 61.54
Second support is the reaction low crossing at 58.32

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Natural gas was steady to slightly higher overnight as it consolidates above the 20 day moving average crossing at 3.62. Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

If August extends the rally off this month's low, the reaction high crossing at 4.138 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10 day moving average crossing at 3.520 would temper the near term friendly outlook in the market.

Wednesday's pivot point for natural gas is 3.68

First resistance is last Friday's high crossing at 3.79
Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 4.14

First support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 3.62
Second support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 3.52

Complimentary Trend Analysis For Stock, Futures, And Forex

Tuesday, July 21, 2009

Where Is Oil Headed on Wednesday

CNBC's Sharon Epperson discusses the day's activity in the commodities markets, and looks ahead to where oil is likely headed on Wednesday.




Great Educational Video "Double Tops and Pivot Points Explained"

Natural Gas Ready To Rebound

Kent Croft, co-manager of the Croft Value Fund, says natural gas is too cheap to ignore. His favorite stocks include Southwestern Energy, Ultra Petroleum and Williams Cos.



New Video: UNG, An ETF That Closely Tracks Natural Gas

Oil Gains for 5th Day, Natural Gas Sees Potential

After choppy trading Tuesday, crude oil was able to make gains again on the New York Mercantile Exchange. With intra-day trading topping $65, oil prices eventually settled just below that. Crude oil settled at $64.72 a barrel in trading on the NYMEX Tuesday, a bump of 74 cents from Monday's close. Despite some volatile trading during the day and the expiration of the August deliveries, crude oil was able to continue its recent rally for the fifth day in a row."It seesawed pretty dramatically, and then the market did rebound strongly as we went into the last half-hour for expiration; and I think that helped boost oil prices to its fifth consecutive day gains,".....Complete Story

Complimentary Trend Analysis For Stock, Futures, And Forex

Profit Taking Tempers Early Gains in Crude Oil, Natural Gas Closes Higher


Crude oil closed higher on Tuesday and above the 20 day moving average crossing at 64.67. Profit taking tempered early gains and the mid range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

Multiple closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 64.67 would confirm that a short term low has been posted while opening the door for a larger degree rebound during the last half of July. Closes below the 10 day moving average crossing at 61.54 would temper the near term friendly outlook in the market.

First resistance is today's high crossing at 65.53
Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 73.38

First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 61.54
Second support is last Monday's low crossing at 58.32

Learn To Trade Crude Oil in Just 90 Seconds

Natural gas closed higher on Tuesday as it consolidates above the 20 day moving average crossing at 3.627. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

If August extends the rally off last week's low, the reaction high crossing at 4.138 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10 day moving average crossing at 3.483 would temper the near term friendly outlook.

First resistance is last Friday's high crossing at 3.79
Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 4.14

First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 3.48
Second support is last Monday's low crossing at 3.23

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Crude Oil, Gasoline Rise as Earnings Signal Recession Is Easing


Crude oil rose and gasoline climbed a sixth day, the longest stretch since January, as better than expected earnings at Caterpillar Inc. signaled the recession may be easing in the world’s biggest fuel consuming country. Oil increased as stimulus programs and improved credit markets bolstered profits at the biggest maker of earth moving equipment. Per share earnings beat projections by an average of 14 percent for the 70 companies in the S&P 500 that reported quarterly results since July 8. U.S. crude oil supplies probably fell last week.....Complete Story

New Video: UNG, An ETF That Closely Tracks Natural Gas

In today’s video we will be looking at an ETF that closely tracks the natural gas market. The United States Natural Gas Fund (PACF_UNG) is one of the more popular energy ETFs and a could be a great market to add to your portfolio as the “Trade Triangles” are catching profits from the spectacular moves.

In this short video I’m going to show you how our “Trade Triangle” Technology outperformed one of the smartest investors on the planet. I am of course referring to the legendary oilman T. Boone Pickens. I’m using his own results for his hedge fund BP Capital Management LP.

Check out his results here. Starting from March of 2008 with our results starting at the same time. I will let you draw your own conclusions on this one.

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Crude Oil Higher Overnight, Testing 20 Day Moving Average

Crude oil was higher overnight as it extends last week's rally but remains below the 20 day moving average crossing at 64.65. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 64.65 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted. If August renews the decline off June's high, the 62% retracement level of the February-June rally crossing at 54.97 is the next downside target.

Crude oil's pivot point for Tuesday is 65.17

First resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 64.65
Second resistance is Monday's high crossing at 64.90

First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 61.49
Second support is the reaction low crossing at 58.32



Natural gas was lower due to profit taking overnight as it consolidates some of its recent gains but remains above the 20 day moving average crossing at 36.23. Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

If August extends the rally off this month's low, the reaction high crossing at 4.138 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10 day moving average crossing at 3.476 would temper the near term friendly outlook in the market.

Tuesday's pivot point for natural gas is 3.65

First resistance is last Friday's high crossing at 3.79
Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 4.14

First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 3.48
Second support is last Monday's low crossing at 3.23

Monday, July 20, 2009

Oil to Rise Above $65 After Support Holds

Crude oil may extend gains above $65 a barrel as an indicator of technical momentum suggests the market has rebounded after failing to break support levels last week, according to National Australia Bank Ltd. The Moving Average Convergence-Divergence oscillator on the weekly continuation chart is “a whisker away” from turning positive, said Gordon Manning, a Sydney based technical analyst. Technical buyers usually step in when the MACD rises above its signal line, a so called bullish crossover.....Complete Story

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Halliburton 2Q Earnings Plummet, Beat Expectations


Halliburton said Monday its second quarter profit tumbled 48 percent as sluggish exploration and production activity, particularly in North America, crimped results. Its earnings beat Wall Street forecasts, though the company offered little hope for an uptick in drilling before year's end. The oilfield services company, which has corporate headquarters in Houston and Dubai, said net income for the April-June period fell to $262 million, or 29 cents per share. That compared with $504 million, or 55 cents a share, a year ago.....Complete Story

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