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Crude oil was higher overnight as it extends the rally off last week's low. Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.
If January extends the rally off last week's low, November's high crossing at 89.10 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10 day moving average crossing at 84.54 would temper the near term friendly outlook.
First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 88.33
Second resistance is November's high crossing at 89.10
Crude oil pivot point for Friday morning is 87.47
First support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 85.07
Second support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 84.54
Natural gas was slightly lower overnight as it consolidates some of the short covering gains of the past two days. In the meantime, stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish hinting that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.
Closes above the reaction high crossing at 4.515 are needed to renew the rally off November's low. If January renews the decline off the reaction high crossing at 4.515, November's low crossing at 3.853 is the next downside target.
First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 4.370
Second resistance is last week's high crossing at 4.515
Natural gas pivot point for Friday morning is 4.306
First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 4.126
Second support is November's low crossing at 3.853
Gold was higher overnight as it continues to rebound off the mid-November low. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.
If March extends the rebound off the mid-November low, November's high crossing at 1426.00 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10 day moving average crossing at 1375.60 would confirm that a short term top has been posted.
First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at 1399.70
Second resistance is November's high crossing at 1426.00
Gold pivot point for Friday morning is 1,390.90
First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 1375.60
Second support is the reaction low crossing at 1331.10
OPEC will probably keep its production quota unchanged when it meets on Dec. 11 in Ecuador, ministers from Angola, Venezuela and Libya said. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries considers oil at $80 to $85 a barrel a “comfortable price,” Angola’s Minister of Petroleum Jose Maria Botelho de Vasconcelos said yesterday. Crude traded around $86 a barrel in New York today. Venezuela’s energy minister Rafael Ramirez, who said he prefers a price level of $100 a barrel, told reporters in Doha today that the group will likely maintain its existing output target.
“The current environment is of some stability,” Angola’s Vasconcelos said in an interview. “The sentiment among members is for maintaining the production level.” Libya’s top oil official, Shokri Ghanem, said yesterday in Doha that the organization will seek stricter compliance with the current production target. OPEC, which produces about 40 percent of the world’s oil, hasn’t changed its formal limit since December 2008, when it announced record supply cuts and a quota of 24.845 million barrels a day.
The group’s adherence to that level has faltered as recovering demand and rising prices encourage members to exceed their individual allocations. Compliance among the 11 nations bound by quotas slipped to 51 percent in October, according to data from the group published on Nov. 11. Qatari Energy Minister Abdullah bin Hamad al-Attiyah said today he won’t attend the Dec. 11 gathering in Quito, Ecuador.
Angola’s Vasconcelos said he expects the country’s oil production to increase to 1.9 million barrels a day next year, close to its maximum capacity. Angola pumped an average of 1.73 million barrels a day in November, according to a Bloomberg survey of producers and analysts on Nov. 30. OPEC’s 12 members are Algeria, Angola, Ecuador, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Libya, Nigeria, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Venezuela. Iraq is exempt from the quota system.
Crude rallied Thursday to a two year high on rising equities and an increase in economic optimism. Oil for January delivery gained $1.25, settling at $88.00 a barrel Thursday. Oil prices peaked at $88.13 during Thursday's trading session and bottomed out at $86.27. According to the U.S. Department of Labor, initial unemployment benefit claims increased by 26,000 to 436,000 from the previous week. However, the four week moving average decreased by 5,750 a two year low.
In addition, reports on an increase in retail and the housing market sales also boosted the U.S. economy. The National Association of Realtors reported a 10 percent increase in pending home sales for the month of October after dropping 1.8% in September. The greenback fell Thursday against the euro on news that the European Central Bank will delay its withdrawal of stimulus measures and keep its interest rate at a record low of 1 percent. A weaker dollar increases oil prices making it cheaper for buyers with foreign currencies.
Likewise, gasoline futures rose to a six month high Thursday, closing the trading session at $2.36 a gallon. The nearly six cent increase came as East Coast supplies declined. Investors fear that imports may decline on tightening supply conditions in the New York harbor. RBOB gasoline fluctuated between $2.29 and $2.36 Thursday.
Front month natural gas futures continued to climb higher Thursday for the eleventh straight day. Natural gas lost earlier rebounds, gained from cooler weather, after inventories fell below market expectation. The Energy Information Administration reported a 23 billion cubic feet drop for the week ended Nov. 23. Natural gas prices settled at $4.34 per thousand cubic feet, up 7.4 cents from the previous day. The intraday range for natural gas was $4.20 to $4.38.
Forget about all of that stellar manufacturing data and jobs data. Ok sure, that may have helped rally the oil yet it was the story that the U.S. stands ready to bail out Europe that sent the dollar falling and the oil on a second wind rally. Reuters News reported that an unnamed US official said the U.S. was prepared to support the European Union’s rescue fund through the International Monetary Fund and the largest contributor is the U.S.. The official said the spread of contagion through the euro region would be a problem for the global economy and because of that I guess the U.S. printing presses are ready to roll.
In other words, it looks like the U.S. just said that we are going to make good on all of Europe’s bad debts and make sure that European citizens can retire when they are 50. Ok maybe they did not say that exactly and they defiantly did not say anything about Europeans retiring when they are 50.( Maybe it was 60) And later the story was denied but don’t you tell that to the investment world because once you make a statement like that it is hard to take it back. Based on the weakness in the dollar after the story broke, it seems the market is convinced that come hell or high water the U.S. will back Europe in their time of economic need.
If the market believes it then there is a lot of pressure on the IMF and the US to make it so. If you don’t think so then you have forgotten the lessons of Fannie and Freddie. They were entities that were supposed to be independent but investors like the Chinese were led to belive that the government sponsored entity was backed by the full faith and credit of the good old American taxpayer. The same taxpayers that we have found out have backed a wide......Read the entire article.
We don't know of any trader better suited to teach us how to take advantage of market psychology then Chris Vermeulen of The Gold and Oil Guy.Com. In this report Chris is going to teach you how to read market sentiment so you can day trade and swing trade consistently to earn 3-5% per month trading ETFs. I remember always hearing the pro’s say “if you want to make money, you need to trade against the herd (masses)”. This sounds easy but just how do we go about doing that? I am about to show you…
In short, you must start looking at the market completely backwards. I focus on buying into heavy volume sell offs (panic) and selling position into heavy volume breakouts (greed). This was a very tough transition for me to make and its best to paper trade it for while until you are comfortable with buying into fear and selling into greed. It will feel completely wrong at the beginning but the profits speak for themselves!
The Four Charts I Follow Closely
The 4 main tools need to make money from trading against the herd. While this is only one of my trading strategies it is my favorite. I trade the ES futures contract and some sometimes the SDS and SSO exchange traded funds. This may seem basic at first glance but when you combine them you end up with a highly effective trading strategy.
SP500 - 5 Minute Chart
Here is a 5 minute chart of the SP500 showing where I went short. It is important to know that over the past 2 years the SP500 has provided a 1.25% profit on average each time one of these extreme sentiment readings occur on the charts.
The red indicator on the chart is a simple volume based indicator which measures fear and greed in the market and is very powerful for picking market tops and bottoms. It’s calculated by taking the NYSE up volume and dividing it by the down volume. In short, when you see this indicator start to rise it tells us the majority of traders (the herd) are buying and we should start to look at taking a short position.
Let me show you how to find the trade using the market sentiment....
The NYSE advance/ decline line
Is the most easy to understand. How I use this is simple, when there are 1500+ stocks trading up on the day then the market is getting overbought meaning too many stocks have moved up in a short period of time and traders will most likely start taking profits or exit their positions. I also look at the intraday chart for topping patterns or resistance levels then wait for the other two indicators to confirm Selling Volume on the chart above and the put/call ratio before going short the market.
The last indicator I follow is the put/call ratio
This indicator can be a little tougher to use at times because when the market is trending down the ratio tends to fluctuate near the top or bottom of its range during up or down trends. In a down trend is stays near the top which the chart below shows.
When the broad market bounces and we see the put/call ratio drop into the lower band it’s telling me the majority of traders have finally become bullish. This tends to happen once a previous high is broken as it triggers short covering and breakout traders start to buy.
Trading Market Sentiment Conclusion:
All you need to use these indicators, focus on the 15 minute charts, trade only with trend, and take profits at 1%, 2% and keep a small position open for much larger gains.
It is critical that once you take partial profits once you reach a 1% gain then you must start moving your protective stop into the money to lock in a profit for the balance of the position. All three indicators need to reach the extreme levels at the same time for a trade to be triggered. I have seen the market trend in the extreme levels for several weeks continuing to move up day after day and you will get stuck in that situation if you jump the gun entering a trade before each indicator signals an extreme level.
Final thoughts, his strategy works just as well in a bull market but there are some minor changes required on each of the indicators. Also I use inter market analysis following the US Dollar, Gold, Bonds and the Volatility Index for other trading strategies which I incorporate using the market sentiment.
If you would like to get Chris Vermeulen's ETF Trade Alerts for Low Risk Setups checkout his service at The Gold And Oil Guy.com
Crude oil was slightly lower due to profit taking overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off last week's low. Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.
If January extends the rally off last week's low, November's high crossing at 89.10 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10 day moving average crossing at 83.82 would temper the near term friendly outlook.
First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 87.10
Second resistance is November's high crossing at 89.10
Crude oil pivot point for Thursday morning is 85.78
First support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 84.95
Second support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 83.82
Natural gas was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off last week's high. However, stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term.
If January renews this week's decline, November's low crossing at 3.853 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10 day moving average crossing at 4.312 would temper the near term bearish outlook.
First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 4.312
Second resistance is last week's high crossing at 4.515
Natural gas pivot point for Thursday morning is 4.252
First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 4.126
Second support is November's low crossing at 3.853
Gold was higher overnight as it continues to rebound off the mid-November low. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.
If December extends the rebound off the mid-November low, November's high crossing at 1424.30 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10 day moving average crossing at 1370.40 would confirm that a short term top has been posted.
First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 1396.60
Second resistance is November's high crossing at 1424.30
Gold pivot point for Thursday morning is 1,389.90
First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 1370.40
Second support is the 25% retracement level of this year's rally crossing at 1330.20
Crude oil rebounded Wednesday on positive manufacturing data from China, encouraging U.S. employment data, and word that the United States may join a European bailout program. Oil for January delivery rose $2.64 to settle at $86.75 a barrel. One factor providing momentum for oil was a monthly update of the China Purchasing Managers Index (PMI).
According to the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing, the PMI increased by 0.9 percent in November. Also benefiting oil was an ADP Employer Services report indicating that private sector employers in the U.S. added 93,000 jobs last month. The finding was above expectations.
In addition, the prospect of U.S. backing for faltering banks in European Union countries proved bullish for oil. Citing an unnamed U.S. official, Reuters reported Wednesday that the U.S. might augment a $980 billion dollar fund to bail out heavily indebted EU region banks using money from the International Monetary Fund (IMF). Other news reports, however, quoted a Treasury Department official who denied that talks were underway to contribute funds to the so called European Financial Stability Facility. January crude traded from $83.63 to $86.62.
Bullish sentiment also was evident in the natural gas futures price. January natural gas increased nine cents to settle at $4.27 per thousand cubic feet. Projections of below normal temperatures through next week in the Northeast and Midwest provided an impetus for Wednesday's increase. The natural gas futures price fluctuated from $4.16 to $4.32.
Gasoline for January delivery also ended the day higher, gaining 13 cents to settle at $2.30 a gallon. It peaked at $2.31 and bottomed out at $2.18. The December gasoline contract, which expired Tuesday, finished at $2.27.
Crude oil climbed on greater than forecast growth in U.S. private employment and Chinese manufacturing and on signals the European Central Bank will act to prevent the spread of the region’s debt crisis. Prices surged as much as 2.8 percent as companies in the U.S. boosted payrolls the most since November 2007, according to figures from ADP Employer Services. Chinese manufacturing grew at the fastest rate in seven months. Futures reached the day’s high after Goldman Sachs & Co. said oil will average $110 a barrel in 2012, up from a forecast $100 of a barrel next year.
“As the global economy goes, so goes oil,” said Andre Julian, chief financial officer and senior market strategist at OpVest Wealth Management in Irvine, California. “The economic numbers in China and elsewhere today have been very strong and point to accelerating growth.” Crude oil for January delivery increased $2.16, or 2.6 percent, to $86.27 a barrel at 12:30 p.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Prices climbed to $86.47, the highest level since Nov. 12.
Brent crude oil for January settlement rose $2.32, or 2.7 percent, to $88.24 a barrel on the London based ICE Futures Europe exchange. Goldman increased its forecast for U.S. gross domestic product growth next year to 2.7 percent from 2 percent. The U.S. economy will expand 3.6 percent in 2012, according to a report sent to Goldman Sachs clients today. The global economy will expand 4.6 percent next year and 4.8 percent in 2012, the bank said.
“Goldman has been banging the bull drum all year,” said Phil Flynn, a Chicago-based analyst and trader with investment adviser PFGBest.......Read the entire article.
David Banister of Market Trends.Com has been hitting gold spot on. And we are lucky enough to get another guest post from him. Let's see what David is thinking about the possibility that gold will head to 1480-1525 before a major correction......
Gold has been consolidating other than a spike to an intermediate wave 3 top of $1424, for about 7 weeks or so now. It’s typical to see Fibonacci periods of time as part of consolidations whether it be an individual stock or a precious metal in this case. Gold was overbought at the $1425 pivot highs a few weeks ago, and that terminated what I label a “wave 3″ pattern. This led us into a 4th wave corrective pattern which we remain in now. My worst case pivot low is expected at $1,321 and so far we have seen $1,331 an ounce and then an ensuing bounce to $1370 ranges.
In the intermediate term then, I’m looking for further consolidation likely for another week or so followed by a breakout over $1425 leading to my objectives of $1480-$1525 to complete the entire rally from the $1040 lows in February of this year. Many are starting to get bearish on Gold and Silver up here, and to me that is bullish and indicative of “4th wave mentality”. In a 4th wave, there is growing bearish sentiment, but not so much as to topple the bull structure.
To wit, last week in my ATP service I recommended a brand new Core Position in a Gold,Silver stock and it rallied as much as 40% intra-week at it’s highs. We are in a super bull market for Gold stocks as I outlined in August of 2009, and we have another four years left to go. I’m seeing alot of amazing chart patterns in the Junior space that are in relentless climbs. Owning the the explorers that are finding the Gold is how best to take advantage of the remaining four years. At ATP, we are exposed to Rare Earths, Silver, Gold, and Oil and Gas related plays in our Core Positions. Make sure you own hard assets and precious metals resources one way or another. My silver forecast in late August was basically predicated on the small investor swarming into the Silver market to buy up coins, look for that to continue and Silver to be over $30 in the not too distant future.
Below is my updated Gold forecast using a weekly chart, remember to Keep it Simple!
It's no wonder that oil is on track to have one of its flattest trading years since 2003. The last minute late November sell off was another sign that the bulls and bears lack true conviction as they to make sense of some obvious and some obscure fundamentals that are driving the price in this somewhat wide swinging emotional oil market. In fact the trading swan song for November and the first of December snap back really symbolizes omneity of the entire year in the oil market. In a normal time, better than expected readings on U.S. Manufacturing and consumer confidence might inspire an oil rally. You might think that oil would celebrate the fact that business expanded at a faster pace than thought for as the Institute for Supply Management-Chicago Inc. rose to 62.5 the highest since April from 60.6 in October increasing hopes that manufacturers would hire and invest in new equipment as their business booms.
Or perhaps the market might take heart from the fact that consumer confidence soared to a reading of 54.1, the highest level since June in the heart of the Christmas shopping season. Yet with the dark clouds emanating out of Europe and commodity funds getting frustrated with their $100 barrel oil bets, prices drove lower as funds wanted to take what profit incentive fees they could before they go flat for the holiday and start shopping for that GI Joe with the Kung-Fu grip for their kids. That was the case even as the dollar rallied, capping off a month where the dollar rallied off its QE2 lows hitting the highest levels since the Fed hinted that they would print more money as investors seek shelter from economic storm clouds in Europe. The oil bulls lost their moxie as risk in the......Read the entire article.
Crude oil was higher overnight and is poised to extend the rally off last week's low. Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.
If January extends the rally off last week's low, November's high crossing at 89.10 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10 day moving average crossing at 83.12 would temper the near term friendly outlook.
First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 85.90
Second resistance is November's high crossing at 89.10
Crude oil pivot point for Wednesday morning is 84.52
First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 83.12
Second support is last Tuesday's low crossing at 80.28
Gold was higher overnight as it continues to rebound off the mid-November low. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.
If December extends the rebound off the mid-November low, November's high crossing at 1424.30 is the next upside target. If December renews the decline off last month's low, the reaction low crossing at 1315.60 is the next downside target.
First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 1396.60
Second resistance is November's high crossing at 1424.30
Gold pivot point for Wednesday morning is 1,380.40
First support is the 25% retracement level of this year's rally crossing at 1330.20
Second support is the reaction low crossing at 1315.60
Natural gas was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off last week's high. However, stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term.
If January extends this week's decline, November's low crossing at 3.853 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10 day moving average crossing at 4.295 would temper the near term bearish outlook.
First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 4.295
Second resistance is last week's high crossing at 4.515
Natural gas pivot point for Wednesday morning is 4.187
First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 4.126
Second support is November's low crossing at 3.853
Financial markets remained under pressure with Wall Street tumbling and the dollar soaring to a 2 1/2 month high against the euro. Debt contagion accelerated further in the European periphery. In bond markets, US Treasuries and German bunds strengthened while Spanish and Italian yield spreads widened to record highs. In the commodity sector, oil prices plummeted as bourses weakened. Moreover, industry report showed that oil inventories rose last week. The front month contract for WTI crude oil slipped to as low as 83.55 before closing at 84.11, down -1.89%. Precious metals rose across the board with the benchmark gold contract surging +1.47% to settle at 1386.1. Benchmark contracts for silver, platinum and palladium also gained +3.91%, 1.33% and 1.17% respectively.
Sovereign concerns about debt-ridden European countries remained elevated even though a bailout program of 85B euro for Ireland has been approved. The rescue program's impacts on easing worries were short-lived and the market soon began speculating Portugal as the next country following Ireland to seek help from EU/IMF. Look at bond markets, yield spreads between peripheral European bonds and German bunds continued to widen. While Greek and Irish spreads were the widest, Spanish and Italian spreads accelerated and reached record highs. A similar picture was seen in CDS spreads and we find it particularly interesting that Italian and Belgium spreads were widening fast.
In Asia, China reported the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) expanded to 55.2 in November from 54.7 a month ago. This is the strongest reading in 7 months and signaled the country's manufacturing activities have been growing robustly despite the government measures. Asian shares fluctuated after the report. While investors were encouraged by the strong growth, it also fueled tightening concerns as the government may accelerate measures to control inflation.
Gauges for manufacturing activities will also be released in Europe and the US later. In the US, ISM manufacturing index probably eased to 56.5 in November from 56.9 a month ago. We will also get some employment data in the NY session. ADP will probably report +65K addition of payrolls last month while Challenger's estimates for job cuts may have been lowered from 31.8% in October.
We will also get EIA's weekly oil inventory report. The market forecasts crude and distillate inventories fell while gasoline stockpiles gained in the week ended November 26. The industry-sponsored API estimated crude inventory drew -1.4 mmb while both gasoline and distillate recorded stock builds.
Light, sweet crude futures fell Tuesday as concern over the European debt crisis resurfaced after the euro plummeted to its lowest level in 10 weeks. Led by declines in heating oil and gasoline futures [which expired at close] and crude oil tumbled more than a dollar a barrel in the last half hour of Tuesday's trading session. Oil prices for January delivery settled at $84.11 a barrel, 1.9 percent lower than Monday.
Fear lingers as investors worry that other countries, such as Spain, Portugal, or Italy, might also need financial assistance after Ireland’s massive bailout package earlier this week. The euro lost 0.9 percent Tuesday, hitting a two month low against the dollar. The greenback rose 0.5 percent on the U.S. dollar index, which gauges the dollar to an array of six other currencies. As the dollar strengthens, crude becomes more expensive for foreign buyers and dollar denominated commodities lose their appeal.
The intraday range for crude futures was $83.55 to $85.90 Tuesday. Front month December gasoline settled nearly two cents lower at $2.26 a gallon on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The December contract for gasoline expired at Tuesday's settlement. In spite of the global economic crisis, gasoline gained 6.3 percent this month the largest since September. Gasoline fluctuated between $2.23 and $2.28 Tuesday.
Natural gas futures also tumbled Tuesday, as stockpiles exceeded expectations of an increase in heating demand due to the forecasted colder than normal temperatures. Although natural gas prices typically correlate with heating demand in the winter, analysts predict that the surplus in supplies has limited rallies; however, they remain uncertain about long term predictions. January Natural gas traded lower for the second consecutive session at $4.18 per thousand cubic feet. It peaked at $4.25 and bottomed out at $4.13 Tuesday.
The S&P 500 index closed lower on Tuesday and the low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If December renews the decline off this month's high, the 25% retracement level of the July-November rally crossing at 1169.37 is the next downside target. Closes above last Monday's high crossing at 1206.00 would temper the near term bearish outlook. First resistance is last Monday's high crossing at 1206.00. Second resistance is this month's high crossing at 1224.50. First support is the reaction low crossing at 1175.20. Second support is the 25% retracement level of the July-November rally crossing at 1169.37.
Crude oil closed lower due to profit taking on Tuesday as it consolidates some of last week's rally. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If January extends the aforementioned rally, November's high crossing at 89.10 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10 day moving average crossing at 82.88 would temper the friendly outlook. First resistance is today's high crossing at 85.90 Second resistance is November's high crossing at 89.10. First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 82.88. Second support is last Tuesday's low crossing at 80.28.
Natural gas closed lower on Tuesday as it consolidates some of the rally off November's low. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. Multiple closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.211 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted. If January extends the rally off October's low, the 38% retracement level of the June-October decline crossing at 4.654 is the next upside target. First resistance is last Wednesday's high crossing at 4.515. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the June-October decline crossing at 4.654. First support is today's low crossing at 4.126. Second support is November's low crossing at 3.853.
Gold closed higher on Tuesday as it extends the rally off November's low. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If December extends the rally off November's low, November's high crossing at 1424.30 is the next upside target. If December renews the decline off November's high, the reaction low crossing at 1315.60 is the next downside target. First resistance is today's high crossing at 1390.10. Second resistance is November's high crossing at 1424.30. First support is the reaction low crossing at 1329.00. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 1315.60.
The U.S. Dollar closed higher on Tuesday as it extends this month's rally. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If December extends this month's rally, the 50% retracement level of this year's decline crossing at 82.18 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 78.69 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 81.53. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of this year's decline crossing at 82.18. First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 79.73. Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 78.69.
Oil prices are creeping back up, mirroring the expanding (if still sickly) global economy, and so one wonders: which major oil company to buy?
Exxon Mobil (XOM) and Chevron (CVX) are well managed, diversified and trading at bargain prices, according to YCharts Pro Ratings. But ConocoPhillips (COP), which lags behind its bigger rivals, is by some measures even cheaper. All the company has to do is make good on its many promises, which, of course, is easier said than done.
On a price to sales basis, ConocoPhillips looks like a steal. Its p/e ratio is also super low. And if you’re making comparisons to bond yields, ConocoPhillips’ earnings yield puts most junk bonds to shame. All that disrespect by investors means ConocoPhillips’ dividend yield is pretty rich, too. Why so cheap? Well, ConocoPhillips carries a higher debt load than its bigger rivals. And it holds less cash, though recent sales of LUKOIL shares have fattened the cash account.
And even though the company is eight years into the merger of Conoco and Phillips, there are signs it’s still working to get its act together. CEO James J. Mulva, though he’s nearing age 65, swept much of top management out the door in early October, bringing in some outside talent. And Mulva is pushing a financial strategy, reduced capital expenditures, debt reduction, rising buybacks and dividends, that seems like the right idea, but perhaps a little late in arriving.
ConocoPhillips has more oil and gas properties around the world than it can reasonably develop, so it is selling some to raise cash and pay down debt. Super, though the assets might have fetched more when oil prices were sky high a few years back. And like all major oil companies, ConocoPhillips faces the daunting task of replacing the oil and gas it pumps and sells each year, a task that is growing ever riskier and more expensive.
So, when oil prices surge, and they will, you might get a little extra bounce with shares of unloved ConocoPhillips, though Exxon and Chevron will certainly rise, as well. Warren Buffett bought ConocoPhillips in the low $70s, so you can buy it more cheaply. The Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A) CEO overpaid because oil prices soon fell. But relative to other major oil companies, did he see a bargain?
Heightened speculations on rate hikes in China have weighed on financial markets. Asian equities plunged amid worries that slowdown in Chinese growth will affect corporate profits while European bourses fluctuated between gains and losses. In the commodity sector, the front month contract for WTI crude oil fell after faltering below 86. Gold, however, climbed for another day to as high as 1377. Sovereign woes in the European periphery remained under the spotlight.
The market focus has once again turned to China. Zhong Jiyin, an economist with the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences wrote in China Daily that the country needs to raise interest rates by another 200 bps to curb inflation, given existing excess liquidity. Although the government has implemented a series of measures, including increasing RRR and raising margins for certain commodity futures, the impacts on inflation are not significant and CPI rose to 4.4% y/y in October, The market has been speculating that a rate hike can come over the next few weeks. According to Zhong, raising RRR may help ease the situation but is 'not enough to reverse it. The increase in the required reserve ratios for banks can prevent the rise of excess liquidity and ensure that the situation does not deteriorate further'. It will 'do little to get rid of the existing excess liquidity. Increasing interest rates is a common measure taken to check inflation'.
In Europe, it's obvious that the bailout for Ireland failed to stem contagion. The market currently expects the EU will need to rescue more peripheral European countries with Portugal being the one after Ireland. Indeed, apart from Portugal, CDS spreads and yield spreads between Spanish/Italian bonds and German bunds have continued to soar. According to Bloomberg news, Spain's banks may struggle to refinance about 85B euro in debt in 2011 and this may trigger the country to seek a bailout from EU/IMF.
China' rate hike and European sovereign concerns have dominated the headlines, overshadowing macroeconomic data. Germany's unemployment fell -9K to 3.14M, the lowest level since December 1992, in November. Unemployment rate stayed unchanged at 7.5%. We will have housing, manufacturing and confidence data in the NY session. Growth in S&P/Case-Shiller Composite 20 index may have eased to +1% in September. Chicago Fed will report its manufacturing PMI which probably dipped -0.7 to 59.9 in November. Consumer Confidence is expected to have improved to 52.7 in November from 50.2 in the prior month.
The gold market has been pushing out its normal level of frustration and anxiety for the past several weeks.
So the question becomes, is the gold market pausing to move higher, and of course the Bulls would argue this, or is it forming the head and shoulders top that many technicians are looking for? Of course, this would be a bearish sign for gold if this technical formation is completed.
We've just finished a short video that shows you what we're looking at right now in gold and how I think it is going to be resolved. The video is a little over 2 minutes. It's quick and to the point while supplying you with what you need to take your place in or out of this market.
You may also wish to attend our gold webinar which we are holding on the 2nd of December at 4 PM EST. The webinar is free of charge, but you need to register in order to attend. This is no hype, but we have limited space and it will be on a first come first served basis. The important thing is that you register as soon as possible.
Crude oil was lower due to profit taking overnight as it consolidates some of last week's rebound off the 50% retracement level of the August-November rally crossing at 81.14. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.
If January extends the rally off last week's low, November's high crossing at 89.10 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10 day moving average crossing at 83.00 would temper the near term friendly outlook.
First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 85.90
Second resistance is November's high crossing at 89.10
Crude oil pivot point for Tuesday morning is 85.07
First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 83.00
Second support is last Tuesday's low crossing at 80.28
Natural gas was higher overnight as it consolidates some of Monday's decline. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.213 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted. If January renews this month's rally, the 38% retracement level of the June-October decline crossing at 4.654 is the next upside target.
First resistance is last week's high crossing at 4.515.
Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the June-October decline crossing at 4.654.
Natural gas pivot point for Tuesday is 4.288
First support is Monday's low crossing at 4.166.
Second support is November's low crossing at 3.853.
Gold was higher overnight as it continues to rebound off the mid-November low. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.
If December extends the rebound off the mid-November low, the reaction high crossing at 1388.10 is the next upside target. If December renews this month's decline, the reaction low crossing at 1315.60 is the next downside target.
First resistance is last Tuesday's high crossing at 1382.90
Second resistance is this month's high crossing at 1424.30
Gold pivot point for Tuesday morning is 1,362.60
First support is the 25% retracement level of this year's rally crossing at 1330.20
Second support is the reaction low crossing at 1315.60
