Friday, March 22, 2013

When it comes to coffee, at this point all that matters is Brazil

Well, the JO crowd finished the week on a positive note. But the bears are still in charge when it comes to coffee. As I have said before, we can pick apart what is going along across the globe but it looks like as Brazil coffee farmers go, so goes coffee futures pricing. Here's today's post on coffee from one of our trading partners Mike Seery......

Coffee futures finished this Friday afternoon on a positive note closing at 136 a pound up 200 points for the trading session finishing higher for the 3rd straight day but still right near 2 ½ year lows as the bear market continues finishing down around 100 points for the trading week.

Coffee futures on the daily chart has excellent chart structure so if you are willing to stick your neck out you will be able to place tight stops limiting your monetary loss in case you are wrong and at this point there is still talk of a tremendous crop coming out of Brazil which is keeping a lid on prices despite the fact of rust problems in Central America a bad drought in Vietnam which is reducing their crop forecast but Brazil’s crop could be so huge as traders are unwilling to stick their neck out on the upside at this point.

As I’ve stated in many previous blogs I was bullish coffee and I was wrong, however the longer we start to grind lower like we are at this point with no volatility going into the volatile frost season I still believe if you have deep enough pockets and you are willing to take a longer term view coffee prices I believe will reward you in the long run because I do believe prices will be higher 12 months from now than they are at these depressed levels.

Even producers in Brazil are starting to complain that prices are getting to low and are starting hold back some of their crop eventually that’s what happens with prices get to low and if prices get too high producers often produce too much sending prices lower but at this point prices are so low that production in my opinion will start to decrease.

Coffee trend? Lower. Chart structure? excellent.

We remain long coffee using ETF "JO"

Click here to get your own free trend analysis for coffee ETF "JO" in your inbox.

EIA: Pennsylvania Natural Gas Production Rose 69% in 2012 Despite Reduced Drilling Activity

Natural gas production in Pennsylvania averaged 6.1 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) in 2012, up from 3.6 Bcf/d in 2011, according to Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection (DEP) data released in February 2013. This 69% increase came in spite of a significant drop in the number of new natural gas wells started during the year.

Several factors contributed to the production increase. While accelerated drilling in recent years (primarily in the Marcellus Shale formation) significantly boosted Pennsylvania's natural gas production, increases were restricted by the state's limited pipeline and processing infrastructure. This created a large backlog of wells that were drilled but not brought online. As infrastructure expanded, these wells were gradually connected to pipelines, sustaining natural gas production increases through 2012 despite the decline in new natural gas well starts. Data from DEP show that a significant portion of wells that began producing in 2012 were drilled earlier.

Graph of PA natural gas drilling and production, as explained in the article text 

Improved drilling and well completion techniques can reduce drilling time and lead to higher production per well. The increased use of horizontal drilling (see graph) and hydraulic fracturing, particularly in the more geologically favorable portions of the Marcellus, allows for more production per well. As operators continue to improve well completion techniques, they are achieving higher initial per-well production rates and boosting overall production.

Pennsylvania typically releases major production data twice a year for unconventional (horizontal) oil and natural gas wells and once a year for conventional oil and natural gas wells. With rapidly increasing natural gas production in Pennsylvania, EIA has proposed to add Pennsylvania (and at least 11 other states) to its monthly EIA-914 natural gas production survey, which would provide more timely reporting of Pennsylvania's rising production.

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Tuesday, March 19, 2013

Making money with Apple using any size account AAPL

If you missed John Carter's webinar last week you missed how he explained his favorite trade setups. In the last couple of days he has used these exact setups to make himself some killer profits trading Apple [AAPL] options. And the best part about these trades is that they can be profitable with any size account.

Watch John's latest two part video HERE

In this free two part video he explains his EXACT entry signal, and how he managed this trade. It's actually really simple and you've got to see this.

And John is holding another webinar Wednesday night at 8 p.m. eastern, in which he explains his trade setups for trading options in detail. So while you are there make sure to sign up for the webinar before all the slots are taken.

Click here to watch two part video and sign up for webinar

See you Wednesday night!
Ray C. Parrish
The Crude Oil Trader


Sunday, March 17, 2013

Trading Tips from John D. Rockefeller

John D. Rockefeller was America's first billionaire. After the civil war Rockefeller had a good amount of money with which to invest. He (correctly) believed railroads would become the primary means to transport agricultural products and would open up the vast western lands to eastern markets, trends that didn't bode well for his own produce shipping. He began to look for other business ventures that could be profitable and found a fledgling sector poised to take off.....the oil industry.

However, where he and his partners entered was not in oil production, but its refining. The same railroads that would eclipse his shipping business would help launch his refining venture, as Cleveland enjoyed not the usual one rail line, but two. Transportation costs would be lower and thus his refinery products more competitive.

By the late 1860s, only five years after getting into the oil business, Rockefeller's refining company was the largest in the world. A major reason for his success was a business model that today we call vertical integration. Rockefeller knew that in order to keep costs down, he would have to control both the upstream and the downstream. For example, he even bought his own woodlands for lumber to make his own oil barrels, and built kilns on site to dry the lumber and save shipping weight on its way to (his own) cooperage. His attention to cost cutting was painstaking.

So, can we learn from Rockefeller and put the lessons he learned to work for us in our modern day trading?

Let's try.

Trading like Rockefeller.....

1. Lower your costs. Lower costs mean higher margins and much more resilience during bad times. Rockefeller famously reduced from 40 to 39 the number of drops of solder to close the lids of kerosene cans, saving the company hundreds of thousands of dollars in the long run. He'd also ask for financial statements down to three decimal places, the better to spot inefficiencies in his supply chain and fix them.As investors, follow in Rockefeller's footsteps by investing in companies with low costs, but also reduce the cost basis in the stocks you own.

2. Have you checked lately whether you're getting the best deal from your brokerage? Don't be afraid to take your business somewhere else. Every advantage counts in this fast moving world.

3. Also, are you making the most out of your portfolio? Could you do more with it? It's a good idea to invest a portion (and we do mean just a portion) of your portfolio in equities that can offer higher reward for higher risk. This is especially true if your portfolio is heavy in capital.

4. When the market is turning against you, move on. Had Rockefeller stuck to his grain shipping business, he'd likely not even made a ripple on the pages of financial history. When he spotted opportunity in the up and coming oil industry, he wasn't afraid to abandon what had been a good thing and to take the leap.For us, this advice means sometimes selling companies that are under performing. Knowing when it's time to cut our losses and to turn our capital toward more profitable ventures. The tricky part is knowing when to be patient and hold and when to recognize a true shift in the marketplace....and that comes from reading the signs from Mr. Market.

5. Vertical integration is a hallmark among many strong companies. Part of the reason Rockefeller could edge out his competitors was the fact that he controlled his own supply chain. He noticed very early on that if he did not control many aspects of his production, he would be at a disadvantage when it came to negotiations. And as he expanded his business, he purchased companies that could make the entire refinery process smoother, including pipelines, railroads, and even those woodlands we mentioned.Thus, if we want blue chip companies that will perform well for us over the long term, we should look for firms that are vertically integrated within their own sectors.

6. Patience is key. Rockefeller kept his discipline when he landed in a tough job market after school. As investors, we're looking for companies that can pay good dividends in the long run. However, we must be wary of overpaying for stocks. Being patient, letting the market come to us rather than chase it ourselves, will give us the best bang for our buck.

Check out our Top 50 Stocks List

Friday, March 15, 2013

Is it time to be sweet on Sugar SGG

Our friends at the MarketClub have posted that they are seeing a bullish uptrend arrow for sugar coming from their Trade Triangle technology. MarketClub contributor Jim Robinson says.......

"Sugar looks to be making a Head and Shoulder base and a breakout to the upside would be bullish. A Head and Shoulders pattern isn't a completed pattern until there is a neckline breakout. Waiting for the neckline breakout helps to confirm the pattern is good and will keep us from buying into what looks like a head and shoulders base, but then fails. The weekly MarketClub Trade Triangle is pointing up which is bullish. If sugar trades higher and makes a strong move through the neckline, that puts the odds with higher prices, making this a great chart to watch as big bull move is possibly on the way for sugar"

Here is Jim's chart and technical view of the Trade Triangles for May sugar using SF.K13.E

We are long sugar using ETN ticker SGG




Click here to check out the MarketClub Trade Triangles for yourself!

 

Wednesday, March 13, 2013

The Stock Market Trend & Hot Sector ETF’s

Trading with the trend should be your main focus for long term success no matter what type of trader you are (Options Trader, Stock Trader, or ETF Trader) although it’s not as easy as it sounds.

The good news is that there is a simple trading model that removes 95% of trading analysis and greatly reduces trading related emotions because the key technical analysis rules based on one of the world’s best chart technicians (John Murphy) technical analysis methods have been applied to the chart automatically. The key is to identify the trend of the market. Once that is known you can focus on trading strategies that take advantage of the current trend.

Over the past few years I have been creating this indicator/chart layout tool which converts my chart reading experience, tips and tricks into a simple system removing analysis paralysis which cause most individuals to second guess what they see and don’t pull the trigger. Using too many indicators or read/listening several other traders commentaries with different views than you causes this paralysis.

My simple red light, green light model clearly shows a viewer the current trend and expected price range (high and low) looking forward a couple days. I uses a series of data points like volatility, volume, cycles, momentum, chart patterns and logic rules. It even shows extreme pivot points helping you find low risk entry prices for both bull and bear market conditions.

Recent trends and signals for the SP500 Index Daily Chart:

SPY1

Trading With the Trend – The Sweet Spots

Knowing the direction of the market is simple using the chart system above but trading with the trend is not that simple because of natural human behavior. Instead traders fall victim to trying to pick a top or bottom because they think the price is overbought or oversold and they want to catch the next big trend change.

We all know the saying “the market climbs a wall of worry”. Well, the biggest worry most traders have is buying long in a bull market because stocks and price always look overbought and ready to top each week… This leads to people trying to get fancy picking a top only to get their head handed to them a few days or weeks later depending on how stubborn they are to exit a losing position.

The key to long term success is to buy during broad market (SP500) corrections once sentiment, cycles and momentum are starting to flash extreme oversold conditions. These show up as green arrows on the trend chart. At that point most sectors and high beta stocks like IBM, GOOG etc… should be at a key entry points with most of the downside risk removed already. Remember ¾ stocks follow the broad market so it only makes sense to follow it also.

What about a runaway stock market? This is when the stock market does not pullback but just keep grinding its way higher and higher… The only thing you can do is sit in cash, or look for a stock or sector that is having a small pause or pullback and get long with a small position until you get that broad market pullback and major by signal to add more.

Below are a few sectors showing a minor pause/pullback within this bull market:

XLP
XLI XLU  XLF

Mid-Week Trend Conclusion:

Overall, the broad market remains in an uptrend. While I would like to see the SP500 pullback and give us another major buy signal like it did in December and February I do mind that much if prices keep running higher as it just give us more cushion and potential profits for when the trend does eventually roll over and flip signals. I hope you found this report interesting. It’s just scratching the surface of this topic but it’s a start. Know the stock market trends by joining my free newsletter at The Gold & Oil Guy.com

Chris Vermeulen


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Tuesday, March 12, 2013

Chevron CEO on CNBC.... Keep Cash Reserves If Oil Prices Fall

Chevron CEO John Watson discusses where the biggest production growth is occurring globally and what his company plans to do with its $22 billion in cash.



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How to Find High Probability Trades

The last time we shared a webinar hosted by John Carter he gave out a trade for attendees to take, if they felt like it, that netted John 86k. And he's hosting another webinar this week

No promises on trade recommendations as he only takes what the market gives him, but I really recommend you sign up for this event for Thursday at 8 p.m. est.

Click here for Webinar Sign up

Here is just an idea of what John will be covering......

*    His favorite options trading strategies,
*    How to find high probability trades,
*    How to manage options trades,
*    How to trade options to generate wealth or income from any account size and more.

If you have decided that it's time to start making real money trading, make time for this event.


John Carter's "How to Find High Probability Trades"

Sunday, March 10, 2013

Silver Miners, Gold Miners and the Price Of Gold

Silver and silver mining stocks are front and center for investors and active traders. Because of silvers high volatility (large price swings) it naturally attracts a lot of attention.

First you have seasoned investors who are waiting for the right opportunity to get long or short for the next move. Then you have the active traders playing the day to day price swings. Finally you get the gamblers who are salivating over the potential to double their accounts and are riding the commodity on pure emotions (Fear & Greed). All these things compound the volatility for the investment making it headline news and what everyone wants to be involved in.

The focus of this report is show you where the price of gold, silver and miner stocks are currently trading and what to lookout for in the coming days/weeks. Below is a chart of gold but silver has a similar pattern and will follow or should I say lead the price of gold in percentage terms because of its volatility.

Gold Weekly Chart:

Gold has been testing its long term support level for three weeks. I expect we see price start to move quickly sooner than later but there is potential for it to tread water here until the second half of April. We all know the saying “Sell in May and Go Away” and as we get closer to that date we should start to see money flow into the “Safe Havens” being gold, silver, and miners. While this has not happened many times on the charts I am thinking beyond them and of what the masses are likely to flock to when stocks lose their luster.

Also if you have been following the price of the dollar index you know that its getting a little overbought and when it starts to correct the falling dollar should help send precious metals higher.

Gold3


Gold & Silver Miners VS Gold Bullion Performance:

The stock market has certain chart patterns that tell chart readers what the holders of that particular investment is feeling emotionally. Knowing how to read these extreme patterns can yield some big gains and works for most investments types (stocks, bonds, commodities and currencies).

Without getting into the boring technical details precious metal stocks are starting show signs of panic selling which typically happens before a major bottom is put in place. A bottom generally takes a week or two for some type of bottoming pattern or base building to form. This is the most volatile time to be trading these investments so trade with caution.

Gold1

Gold Miners Bullish Percent Index:

Bullish percent indexes are a great way to see how popular an investment is. If you do not know what a bullish percent chart is then you can look it up online and learn more. The way I read it is when it’s up over 75-80 it’s a popular investment and everyone is buying it. It also means it’s in a major uptrend. But you must be aware that when everyone is buying something once price starts to turn down you better be one of the first few out the door before everyone else runs for the door and price crashes.

It’s similar but reversed for investments that are below 20. Everyone is selling, no one wants to own it but once the selling momentum stops price should rebound and rally. Keep in mind this indicator is not great for timing, but confirms that what you are looking at is either oversold, neutral or overbought in the BIG picture.

Gold2

Weekend Precious Metals Trading Conclusion:

In short, I still like gold, silver, and their related mining stocks. I am watching them very closely for signs of a bottom and will be jumping on that train when the selling momentum looks to have stalled. Keep in mind that all these investments are still in a VERY STRONG DOWN TREND and trying to catch a falling knife is not what I do. Waiting for momentum to shift is my focus as there should be big upside if metals and stocks can find a bottom soon. If gold breaks down below key support as posted on the weekly chart then the uptrend may be over and it will be time to start looking for short positions.

You can get my free weekly reports and ideas here at The Gold & Oil Guy.com

Chris Vermeulen


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Saturday, March 9, 2013

Are you using the "Squeeze Trade"

We have had a huge response to John Carters options trading video that we posted on Thursday. Because of some of the feedback and input that has come in John has decided to release a follow up video. Here's a little advice though, before watching the video get out a pen and paper. Personally I think you'll want to take some notes this time around.

Today's video will include more details on individual trades John has been doing. Including how he made 43k trading MA options. The video is only 13 minutes long so no excuses. Here is just a sample of what John will be covering.......

- Three (3) strategies to trade "The Squeeze"
- The secret behind 39 minute charts
- The "Porsche Trade Setup"

Whether you trade options as an expert or beginner we would love to hear your feedback so please feel free to leave a comment.

Just click here to watch John's video

See you in the markets!
Ray C. Parrish
President/CEO The Crude Oil Trader


Exact Setup of a 43k Options Trade



Stock & ETF Trading Signals