Crude Oil Closes Down, Bulls Still Have The Near Term Advantage

July crude oil closed down $1.03 at $61.00 a barrel today. Prices closed near mid range today and were pressured on profit taking and a lower U.S. stock market. Bulls still have the near term technical advantage. A four week old uptrend is in place on the daily bar chart.

July natural gas closed down 36.1 cents at $3.737 today. Prices closed near the session low, hit a fresh two week low and scored a bearish "outside day" down on the daily bar chart today. A bearish weekly gas storage report today pressured natural gas. Bears still have the near term technical advantage and regained downside momentum today.

The June U.S. dollar index closed down 47 points at 80.60 today. Prices closed near the session low and hit a fresh 4 1/2 month low again today. Prices are still in a 10 week old downtrend on the daily bar chart. Bears still have the near term technical advantage and have gained more strength this week.

The U.S. stock indexes closed solidly lower today. The indexes were pressured by a bearish weekly jobless claims report and by news that the U.K.'s credit rating has been lowered. Don't look for keen buying interest on Friday, ahead of a long holiday weekend in the U.S. Bulls should not become too confident in these still very troubled economic times.

Crude Oil Lower As Markets React To Continous Job Claims

Crude oil traded lower overnight as most professional traders are looking for an over due retracement. We are still in a strong uptrend but it is apparent we have made a short term top. I look for bullish day traders to make a stand in the 60.50 - 61 area so watch volume closely as we trade through here, bears will start take profits in the 59+ area.

We will be watching the SP 500 closely as any move below 895.50 will have day traders trading the gap fill to 882.50, most likely taking crude oil with it.

Natural gas seems to be making a test of the 50 and 61.8% retracement lines which will only add to the crude oil sell off. This could be healthy for the bulls case if these levels can hold.

Thursday's pivot point, our line in the sand is 61.27

1st resistance is 62.67
2nd resistance is 63.67

1st support is 60.27
2nd support is 58.87

Crude Oil Rally Struggling Against Future Demand Concerns

June crude oil was higher overnight as it extended the rally off April's low and are still holding up despite future demand threats from worse than expected retail numbers this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

If June extends the rally, the reaction high crossing at 65.00 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 53.18 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted.

Wednesday's pivot point, our line in the sand is 58.91

First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 60.08
Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 65.00

First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 56.10
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 53.18

Today’s Stock Market Club Trading Triangles

The June Dollar was steady to lower overnight as it consolidates below the 75% retracement level of the December-March rally crossing at 827.50. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term.

If June extends the decline off April's high, the 87% retracement level of the December-March rally crossing at 81.49 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 84.75 would temper the near term bearish outlook in the market.

First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 83.62
Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 84.75

First support is the overnight low crossing at 81.98
Second support is the 87% retracement level crossing at 81.49

Today’s Stock Market Club Trading Triangles

The June S&P 500 index was lower overnight and is testing initial support marked by the 10 day moving average crossing at 901.93. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bearish hinting that a short term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 877.90 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted.

If June renews the rally off March's low, January's high crossing at 937.00 is the next upside target.

Our pivot point for Wednesday is 905

First resistance is last Thursday's high crossing at 916.75
Second resistance is January's high crossing at 927.50

First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 895.75
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 884.50

The June S&P 500 Index was down 4.50 points. at 902.30 as of 6:00 AM CST. Overnight action sets the stage for a lower opening by the June S&P 500 index when the day session begins later this morning.

10:30 AM ET. May 15

US Energy Dept Oil Inventories

Crude Oil Stocks (previous 375.3M)

Crude Oil Stocks (Net Change)(expected +1.3M; previous +600K)

Gasoline Stocks (previous 212.4M)

Gasoline Stocks (Net Change)(expected 0; previous -200K)

Distillate Stocks (previous 146.5M)

Distillate Stocks (Net Change)(expected +1.3M; previous +2.4M)

Refinery Usage (expected 85.4%; previous 85.3%)


Today’s Stock Market Club Trading Triangles



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USO and Crude Oil On The Move

We don’t often produce videos on ETFs, but we find USO to be very interesting right now. This ETF, United States Oil, closely tracks the price of crude oil in New York.

This market appears to have completed a formation that could have great profit opportunities in the near term.

In our new video, we explain in detail a strategy that we are using to approach this market. As always, our videos are registration free and come with our compliments.

Please feel free to comment on our blog about your experiences and thoughts on USO and the crude oil market.



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Crude Oil Closes Higher On Thursday, Well Off Session Highs

June crude oil closed higher on Thursday but well off session highs due to some profit taking. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

If June extends the rally, January's high crossing at 59.66 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 52.00 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted.

First resistance is today's high crossing at 58.57.
Second resistance is January's high crossing at 59.66.

First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 52.79.
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 52.00.

Today’s Stock Market Club Trading Triangles

The June Dollar closed higher on Thursday as it extends this week's trading range. The mid range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term.

If June extends the decline, March's low crossing at 83.14 is the next downside target. Multiple closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 85.29 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted.

First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 84.67.
Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 85.29.

First support is today's low crossing at 83.55.
Second support is March's low crossing at 83.14.

Today’s Stock Market Club Trading Triangles

The June S&P 500 index posted a downside reversal on Thursday due to profit taking as it consolidated some of this spring's rally. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

If June extends the rally off March's low, January's high crossing at 937.00 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 865.19 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted.

First resistance is today's high crossing at 929.00.
Second resistance is January's high crossing at 937.00.

First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 881.39.
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 865.19.


Will the stress test results put crude oil back in rally mode? Let us know, please feel free to leave a comment and let our readers know!

Shell Says Rebound Unlikely, Motor Fuel Supplies Decline

"Crude Oil, Gasoline Rise as Supplies of the Motor Fuel Decline"
Crude oil and gasoline rose after a government report showed an unexpected drop in U.S. inventories of the motor fuel as refiners reduced operating rates.

Gasoline supplies declined 4.7 million barrels to 212.6 million last week, the biggest reduction since September, the Energy Department said. Stockpiles were forecast to rise by 200,000 barrels, according to a Bloomberg News survey. Prices also increased after stocks rallied and the dollar dropped.

“Nobody was looking for a gasoline decline of that size,” said Sean Brodrick, natural resource analyst with Weiss Research in Jupiter, Florida. “This shows that refineries are keeping processing rates too low because there’s obviously some demand out there for gasoline.....Complete Story

"Iraq Launches Tenders for 60 Wells in Southern Oil Fields"
Iraq Sunday issued two tenders for foreign companies to drill a total of 60 wells in the country's large oil fields in southern Missan governorate in a bid to increase crude oil output, according to tender document posted on the oil ministry Web site.

The first tender, issued through Missan Oil Co., or MOC, an affiliate of the oil ministry, calls for the drilling of 15 wells in the Halfaya and Amarah oil fields, and another 15 wells in the Abu Ghirab.....Complete Story

"Shell Says Oil Unlikely to Rebound as Profit Slumps"
Royal Dutch Shell Plc, Europe’s largest oil company, said crude prices are unlikely to rebound in the next 12 to 18 months as it reported a 62 percent slump in first-quarter profit.

Net income declined to $3.49 billion, or 57 cents a share, from $9.08 billion, or $1.46, a year earlier, The Hague based company said today in a statement. Excluding inventory changes and one time items, earnings beat analysts’ estimates.

Shell follows BP Plc, its smaller rival, in posting lower earnings after oil prices plunged about $100 from a record. Chief Executive Jeroen van der Veer has pledged to pay out about $10 billion in dividends this year, even as Shell funds the industry’s biggest spending program to revive production growth......Complete Story


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Oil Falls For Second Day, Valero Profits Up

"Oil Falls a Second Day on Concern Swine Flu Will Curb Fuel Use"
Crude oil fell for a second day on concern that fuel demand will drop as the swine-flu outbreak curtails travel and delays a recovery from the global recession.

Oil, gold and copper declined as the World Health Organization raised its global pandemic alert to the highest since the warning system was adopted in 2005, saying the disease is not containable. Crude rose in eight of the past 10 weeks as the stock market climbed on speculation that the economy and energy consumption would rebound later this year.

“There’s a potential that a swine-flu outbreak will crimp economic growth,” said Rick Mueller, a director of oil markets at Energy Security Analysis Inc. in Wakefield, Massachusetts. “There’s also recognition that the recent rally was overly optimistic. Demand isn’t recovering.....Complete Story

"OPEC Oil Price Eases Early In The Week"
The price for oil produced by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) shed nearly $0.80 Monday, the group announced Tuesday.

After rising to just below the 50 dollar mark at the end of last week, one barrel (158 liters) of OPEC crude oil fell by $0.76 to settle at $49.21 on Monday.

The Vienna based organization calculates a basket price based on 12 brands produced by its members.....Complete Story

"Valero Energy Profit Rises on Higher Refining Margins"
Valero Energy Corp., the largest U.S. oil refiner, said first-quarter profit rose 18 percent on increased margins for processing crude into gasoline and other petroleum products.

Net income rose to $309 million, 59 cents a share, from $261 million, or 48 cents, a year earlier, San Antonio-based Valero said today in a statement. The per-share results beat by 9 cents the average of 18 analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg. Sales fell 50 percent to $13.8 billion.

Valero benefited from lower costs and a rebound in gasoline prices as U.S. refiners cut processing rates faced with reduced fuel demand in an economy hobbled by recession. The company earned an average of $8.77 for each barrel of oil it processed in the first quarter.....Complete Story


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PetroChina Misses Analyst Estimates, Shell Profits Plummet

"PetroChina First Quarter Net Falls, Trailing Analyst Estimates"
PetroChina Co., the world’s second largest company by market value, posted a profit that trailed analysts’ estimates for the first quarter of what will be its “most challenging” year.

Net income declined 35 percent to 18.96 billion yuan ($2.8 billion) from 29.3 billion yuan a year earlier, the Beijing based company said in a statement to the Shanghai exchange yesterday. That’s worse than a median estimate of 19.5 billion yuan in a Bloomberg survey of three analysts.

China’s economy grew at its weakest pace in nearly a decade in the first quarter, and PetroChina faces “huge difficulties” in 2009 as the global financial crisis reduces demand for oil products, it said last month. Asia’s biggest crude producer said it will cut costs and reduce risk in the second quarter, and China passed a $585 billion stimulus package to revive growth.....Complete Story

"Florida House Members Mull Offshore Drilling Bill"
A bill that would allow oil drilling off Florida's coast is ready for a vote in the state House of Representatives.

Today legislators questioned Rep. Charles Van Zant, R-Keystone Heights, for more than an hour, voicing concern about the bill that would allow the governor and Cabinet to approve drilling leases between 3 and 10.5 miles off the state's coast. They expressed worries that drilling could hurt the tourism industry, the seafood industry, and the environment.

Van Zant assured members that drilling technology has advanced to the point that there is minimal risk. He said opening the coast to oil and natural gas exploration could create thousands of jobs.....Complete Story

"Shell, BP Profits May Drop Most In Five Years On Oil"
Royal Dutch Shell Plc and BP Plc, Europe’s largest oil companies, may post the biggest drop in quarterly earnings in at least five years after the recession dragged down crude prices.

U.S. oil futures averaged $43.31 a barrel in the quarter, 56 percent lower than a year earlier, after plunging from a record $147.27 reached in July. The companies responded by shelving projects and demanding price cuts from suppliers. BP may scale back its joint Sunrise oil-sands project in Alberta to cut expenses, while Shell has said industry costs could fall as much as 50 percent.

“We are going to see a very substantial drop in income and there’s very little they can do about costs in the short-term,” said Colin Morton, who helps manage about $2 billion, including BP and Shell stock, at Rensburg Fund Management in Leeds, England. “It’s going to be quite a tough period.”.....Your keyword


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Crude Oil Struggles At The $50 Level, Unemployment Numbers Weigh On Demand

June crude oil was higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates some of this week's decline. But higher unemployment numbers may weigh on demand and lower than expected numbers from UPS this morning look to weigh on the entire market.

Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term.

If June extends this week's decline, the reaction low crossing at 45.11 is the next downside target.

Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 51.99 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted.

Today's daily pivot point, our line in the sand is 48.48

First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 51.18.
Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 51.99.

First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 46.72.
Second support is the reaction low crossing at 45.11.

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The June Dollar was lower due to profit taking overnight as it consolidates some of Monday's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral hinting that a short term top might be in or is near.

Closes below last Monday's low crossing at 84.72 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. If June extends Monday's rally, the reaction high crossing at 88.26 is the next upside target.

First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 87.22.
Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 88.26.

First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 85.97.
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 85.70.

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The June S&P 500 index was higher overnight [Index was up 6.80 points. at 843.60 as of 5:58 AM CST.] due to short covering as it consolidates above the 20 day moving average crossing at 833.00. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that a short term top appears to have been posted. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 833.00 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted.

If June renews the rally off March's low, January's high crossing at 937.00 is the next upside target.

The daily pivot point is 844.

First resistance is last Friday's high crossing at 867.00.
Second resistance is January's high crossing at 937.00.

First support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 833.00.
Second support is the reaction low crossing at 802.60.

The June S&P 500 Index was up 6.80 points. at 843.60 as of 5:58 AM CST. Overnight action sets the stage for a higher opening by the June S&P 500 index when the day session begins later this morning.


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Bears Seem To Have Term Advantage On Crude Oil

May crude oil was slightly lower overnight as it extends this month's trading range. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term.

Closes below the reaction low crossing at 47.26 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted. Closes above March's high crossing at 54.66 are needed to confirm an upside breakout of the current consolidation pattern.

First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 53.90.
Second resistance is March's high crossing at 54.66.

First support is last Wednesday's low crossing at 47.37.
Second support is the reaction low crossing at 47.26.

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The June S&P 500 index was steady to slightly lower due to profit taking overnight as it consolidates some of its recent gains. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are still possible near term.

If June extends the rally off March's low, February's high crossing at 867.50 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 824.30 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted.

Friday's pivot point, the line in the sand, is 856.25

First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at 867.00.
Second resistance is January's high crossing at 937.00.

First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 831.70.
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 824.30.

The June S&P 500 Index was down 0.10 points. at 861.40 as of 5:58 AM CST. Overnight action sets the stage for a steady to lower opening by the June S&P 500 index when the day session begins later this morning.

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The June Dollar was higher overnight as it extends the rebound off Monday's low. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. Closes above last Thursday's high crossing at 86.24 would open the door for additional short covering gains during April.

If June renews Monday's decline, last Monday's low crossing at 84.10 is the next downside target. Closes below last Monday's low would open the door for a possible test of March's low crossing at 83.15.

First resistance is last Thursday's high crossing at 86.24.
Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 86.61.

First support is last Monday's low crossing at 84.10.
Second support is March's low crossing at 83.14.


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Crude Higher On Short Covering, Signals Turn Bearish

May crude oil was higher overnight due to short covering as it consolidates some of this week's decline. However, stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 47.26 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted.

Closes above March's high crossing at 54.66 are needed to confirm an upside breakout of the current consolidation pattern.

First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 53.90.
Second resistance is March's high crossing at 54.66.

First support is last Wednesday's low crossing at 47.37.
Second support is the reaction low crossing at 47.26.

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The June S&P 500 index was steady to slightly lower due to profit taking overnight as it consolidates some of its recent gains. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish hinting that a short term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 819.51 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted.

If June extends the rally off March's low, February's high crossing at 867.50 is the next upside target.

Thursday's pivot point, our line in the sand is 844.

First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 861.30.
Second resistance is February's high crossing at 867.50.

First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 831.70.
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 819.51.

The June S&P 500 Index was down 1.10 points. at 847.40 as of 6:00 AM CST. Overnight action sets the stage for a steady to lower opening by the June S&P 500 index when the day session begins later this morning.

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The June Dollar was higher overnight due to short covering as it consolidates some of Monday's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term.

If June extends this week's decline, last Monday's low crossing at 84.10 is the next downside target. Closes below last Monday's low would open the door for a possible test of March's low crossing at 83.15. Closes above last Thursday's high crossing at 86.24 would open the door for additional short covering gains during April.

First resistance is last Thursday's high crossing at 86.24.
Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 86.61.

First support is last Monday's low crossing at 84.10.
Second support is March's low crossing at 83.14.

Crude Oil Looks To Open Lower

May crude oil closed higher on Thursday as it extends this month's rally. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

If May extends this month's rally, January's high crossing at 58.31 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 48.67 would confirm that a short term top has been posted.

First resistance is today's high crossing at 54.66.
Second resistance is January's high crossing at 58.31.

First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 51.27.
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 48.67.

Pre market crude oil is already trading down in the 52.69 area. We are going short for a scalp trade against the trend as we look for crude oil to follow the SP 500 down at the opening. Don't get stuck in this trade, we will probably take our profits at the 10 day moving average 51.27.

Crude Oil Slightly Higher Overnight On Short Covering

March crude oil was steady to slightly higher overnight due to short covering as it consolidates some of Tuesday's decline.

Stochastics and the RSI are turning bullish hinting that a short term low might be in or is near.

Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at $40.16 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted.

If March extends this year's decline, psychological support crossing at $30.00 is the next downside target.

First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at $37.61.

Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at $40.16.

First support is last Thursday's low crossing at $33.55.

Second support is psychological support crossing at $30.00.


4:30 PM ET. Feb 13 API Oil Industry Report

Crude Stocks (Net Change) (previous +1.99M)

Gasoline Stocks (Net Change) (previous -2.92M)

Distillate Stocks (Net Change) (previous -853K)

Refinery Runs (previous 81.9%)

NYMEX Trading and Processing Schedule

Monday February 16, 2008 (President's Day)

* NYMEX and COMEX trading floors will be closed.
* The DME intraday settlement price (OSP) to be published at the normal
time of 3:30 AM for February 16 calendar date. No post-close
settlement to be published.
* NYMEX and COMEX products on CME Globex and NYMEX ClearPort (including
DME Direct) will open for trading/trade submission for the February 19
trade date until the trading halt at 5:15 PM.
* Day/session orders entered on CME Globex or DME Direct will be for the
February 17 trade date and will continue until Tuesday's close at
5:15 PM.
* NYMEX trading at settlement (TAS) products on CME Globex will be
available for trading for the February 17 trade date.
* NYMEX TMS will be available for trade management for February 19 trade
date.
* NYMEX cleared trades API will be available.
* Markets will not be settled and settlements will not be published, as
February 16 is not a trade or processing date.
* NYMEX intraday files will not be produced, no clearing will occur, and
no clearing functionality will be available.
* Daily SPAN and erosion files will not be produced (an additional
erosion file will be produced on February 17).
* Options cannot be exercised.
* There will not be any allocation of energy and metal deliveries or
delivery notices, and related forms will not be accepted.
* The first normal intraday file generated on calendar date February 17
will contain trades from calendar date February 16.
* NYMEX and COMEX products on CME Globex and NYMEX ClearPort (including
DME Direct) all reopen for trading/trade submission at 6:00 PM
(February 19 Trade Date).


Tuesday February 17, 2008

* Normal schedule resumes.
* Banking for February 15th clearing cycle will occur.
* Large trader reporting for NYMEX and COMEX for February 15th trade date
for any clearing members not holding DME positions are due by 8:00 AM.
* "Double Erosion" will occur to account for the February 18 Peak Day.
Two erosion files will be produced.