Showing posts with label Oil N' Gold. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Oil N' Gold. Show all posts

Thursday, March 11, 2010

Crude Oil Daily Technical Outlook For Thursday


Crude oil is still staying in tight range as consolidations continues. Upside momentum is clearly diminishing with bearish divergence condition in 4 hours MACD. But still, another rise is in favor as long as 80.16 minor support holds. Current rally might still extend further for retesting 83.95 high. However, break of 80.16 minor support will argue that a short term top is already formed. In such case, deeper pull back should be seen to 38.2% retracement of 69.50 to 83.03 at 77.86 and below.

In the bigger picture, crude oil was supported above mentioned 68.59 key support and thus, there was no confirmation of medium term reversal. The strong rebound from 69.50 dampened our bearish view and argue that medium term rise from 33.2 might not be over yet. Nevertheless, as such rise from 33.2 is treated as a correction to whole decline from 147.27 only, even in case of another high above 83.95, we'd continue to expect strong resistance near to 50% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2 at 90.24 to bring reversal. On the downside, though, break of 69.50 support will now indicate that crude oil has topped out in medium term already and turn outlook bearish.....
Nymex Crude Oil Continuous Contract 4 Hours Chart


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Wednesday, March 10, 2010

Crude Oil Daily Technical Outlook Wednesday Morning


Intraday bias in Crude oil remains neutral for the moment as consolidation from 82.41 continues. Another rise is still mildly in favor with 79.75 minor support intact and above 82.41 will target a retest on 83.95 high. However, considering bearish divergence condition in 4 hours MACD, break of 79.75 support will indicate that a short term top is formed and will bring deeper fall to 38.2% retracement of 69.50 to 82.41 at 77.48 next.

In the bigger picture, crude oil was supported above mentioned 68.59 key support and thus, there was no confirmation of medium term reversal. The strong rebound from 69.50 dampened our bearish view and argue that medium term rise from 33.2 might not be over yet. Nevertheless, as such rise from 33.2 is treated as a correction to whole decline from 147.27 only, even in case of another high above 83.95, we'd continue to expect strong resistance near to 50% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2 at 90.24 to bring reversal. On the downside, though, break of 69.50 support will now indicate that crude oil has topped out in medium term already and turn outlook bearish.....Nymex Crude Oil Continuous Contract 4 Hours Chart

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Tuesday, March 9, 2010

Crude Oil Daily Technical Outlook For Tuesday


Crude oil's retreat from 82.41 extends further today. considering bearish divergence condition in 4 hours MACD, break of 79.75 support will indicate that a short term top is formed and will bring deeper fall to 38.2% retracement of 69.50 to 82.41 at 77.48 next. Nevertheless, before that, another rise could still be seen and above 82.41 will target a retest on 83.95 high.

In the bigger picture, crude oil was supported above mentioned 68.59 key support and thus, there was no confirmation of medium term reversal. The strong rebound from 69.50 dampened our bearish view and argue that medium term rise from 33.2 might not be over yet. Nevertheless, as such rise from 33.2 is treated as a correction to whole decline from 147.27 only, even in case of another high above 83.95, we'd continue to expect strong resistance near to 50% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2 at 90.24 to bring reversal. On the downside, though, break of 69.50 support will now indicate that crude oil has topped out in medium term already and turn outlook bearish.....Nymex Crude Oil Continuous Contract 4 Hours Chart.


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Saturday, March 6, 2010

Strong Market Sentiment Boost Commodities


Crude oil rallied after fewer than expected payroll contraction in the US. Investors anticipate improved economic outlook would boost energy demand. WTI crude oil price surged to a 7 week high of 72.07 before closing at 81.5, up +1.6% Friday. The benchmark contract also added +2.3% on weekly basis. Brent crude also rose +2.96% last week, narrowing the spread between WTI BRENT crude prices. We believe this was due to the unexpected stock build in Cushing Oklahoma, where the WTI crude is stored.

The US Energy Department reported on Wednesday that crude oil inventory increased +4.03 mmb, compared with market expectation of +1.9 mmb gain, to 341.6 mmb in the week ended February 26. Cushing stock, halting the downtrend, rose for the first time in 10 weeks. Although utilization rate increased +0.7%, it was more than offset by +2% rise in imports.

Gasoline inventory rose +0.77 mmb to 231.9 mmb despite decline in imports and flat production. Demand slid -2% to around 8.88M bpd. Distillate stockpile continued to draw but the magnitude was less than expected. Although demand rose +4.6% during the week, it remained +21% above 5 year average.

We regard this as a weak set of inventory data. However, the market ignored the huge increase in crude oil inventory but focused on strong ISM services data and other positive macroeconomic data. Moreover, investors might view increase in utilization rate and rise in implied petroleum consumption as signs of recovery in US oil market.

The weekly data is volatile in nature. Let's take a look at the 4 week average. Total product demand averaged at 19.3M bpd over the past 4 week, down -1.2% from the same period last year. Although the contraction has moderated, it's far from being described as encouraging. Similar situations are seen in fuel demands. 4 week average for motor gasoline and distillate were down -2.5% and -7.7% respectively from the same period last year.

In the coming week, the International Energy Agency, the US Energy Department and the OPEC will release their monthly oil reports. We expect to see modest upgrade in global oil demand given stronger macroeconomic outlook. Major growth driver remains in countries outside OECD. In previous reports, all 3 agencies viewed that OECD demand should remain subdue in 2010 and 2011. We will see if there're any upward revisions in these countries as OECD demand is crucial for sustaining oil price above 80.

From Oil N'Gold Saturday March 6th


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Thursday, March 4, 2010

Crude Oil Daily Technical Outlook For Thursday


Crude oil edges higher to 81.23 but upside momentum remains a bit unconvincing. Nevertheless, in any case, further rise is still in favor as long as 77.05 support holds. Current rise from 69.50 might continue for a retest on 83.95 high next. On the downside, though, break of 77.05 will argue that rebound from 69.50 is completed. In such case, focus will be shifted back to 69.50 support instead.

In the bigger picture, crude oil was supported above mentioned 68.59 key support and thus, there was no confirmation of medium term reversal. The strong rebound from 72.43 dampened our bearish view and argue that medium term rise from 33.2 might not be over yet. Nevertheless, as such rise from 33.2 is treated as a correction to whole decline from 147.27 only, even in case of another high above 83.95, we'd continue to expect strong resistance near to 50% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2 at 90.24 to bring reversal. On the downside, though, break of 69.50 support will now indicate that crude oil has topped out in medium term already and turn outlook bearish.....Nymex Crude Oil Continuous Contract 4 Hours Chart.


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Wednesday, March 3, 2010

Crude Oil Daily Technical Outlook Wednesday Morning


Crude oil had another attempt to resume rally but failed again and settled back into familiar range of 77.05 and 80. Intraday bias remains neutral and more sideway trading could stil be seen. But after all, outlook remains bullish as long as 77.05 support holds. Break of 80.95 will indicate rally resumption and should target 83.95 high next. However, note that below 77.05 support will argue that rebound from 69.50 is completed with a double top. In such case, focus will be shifted back to 69.50 support instead.

In the bigger picture, crude oil was supported above mentioned 68.59 key support and thus, there was no confirmation of medium term reversal. The strong rebound from 72.43 dampened our bearish view and argue that medium term rise from 33.2 might not be over yet. Nevertheless, as such rise from 33.2 is treated as a correction to whole decline from 147.27 only, even in case of another high above 83.95, we'd continue to expect strong resistance near to 50% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2 at 90.24 to bring reversal. On the downside, though, break of 69.50 support will now indicate that crude oil has topped out in medium term already and turn outlook bearish.....Nymex Crude Oil Continuous Contract 4 Hours Chart.


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Saturday, February 27, 2010

Crude Oil Weekly Technical Outlook


Crude oil turned into consolidation after edging high to 80.51 initially last week and turned and dipped to as low as 77.05. Nevertheless, with 75.69 resistance turned support intact, rise from 69.05 should still be in progress. Indeed, Friday's strong rebound indicates that consolidation from 80.51 might have completed already. Initial bias is cautiously on the upside this week. Break of 80.51 will confirm rise resumption and should target a retest on 83.95 high next. On the downside, in case of another fall, outlook will remain bullish as long as 75.69 support holds. However, break of 75.69 will argue that rebound from 69.50 has completed and will turn focus back to this low.

In the bigger picture, crude oil was supported above mentioned 68.59 key support and thus, there was no confirmation of medium term reversal. The strong rebound from 72.43 dampened our bearish view and argue that medium term rise from 33.2 might not be over yet. Nevertheless, as such rise from 33.2 is treated as a correction to whole decline from 147.27 only, even in case of another high above 83.95, we'd continue to expect strong resistance near to 50% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2 at 90.24 to bring reversal. On the downside, though, break of 69.50 support will now indicate that crude oil has topped out in medium term already and turn outlook bearish.

In the long term picture, there is no change in the view that fall from 147.27 is part of the correction to the five wave sequence from 98 low of 10.65. While the rebound from 33.2 is strong and might continue, there is no solid evidence that suggest fall 147.27 is completed and we're still preferring the case that rebound from 33.2 is merely a corrective rise only. Having said that, strong resistance should be seen between 76.77/90.24 fibo resistance zone and bring reversal for another low below 33.2 before completing the whole correction from 147.27..... Nymex Crude Oil Continuous Contract 4 Hours Chart.


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Friday, February 26, 2010

Crude Oil Daily Technical Outlook For Friday Morning


Crude oil's consolidation from 80.51 continues today and intraday bias remains neutral. While deeper retreat cannot be ruled out, note that rise from 69.50 is in favor to continue as long as 75.69 support holds. Above 80.51 will target a retest on 83.95 high. However, break of 75.69 will argue that rebound from 69.50 has completed and will turn focus back to this low.

In the bigger picture, crude oil was supported above mentioned 68.59 key support and thus, there was no confirmation of medium term reversal. The strong rebound from 72.43 dampened our bearish view and argue that medium term rise from 33.2 might not be over yet. Nevertheless, as such rise from 33.2 is treated as a correction to whole decline from 147.27 only, even in case of another high above 83.95, we'd continue to expect strong resistance near to 50% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2 at 90.24 to bring reversal. On the downside, though, break of 69.50 support will now indicate that crude oil has topped out in medium term already and turn outlook bearish.....Nymex Crude Oil Continuous Contract 4 Hours Chart.


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Thursday, February 25, 2010

Crude Oil Daily Technical Outlook For Thursday


Crude oil continues to stay in tight range below 80.51 today and intraday bias remains neutral for the moment. Deeper retreat to 4 hours 55 EMA (now at 78.12) cannot be ruled out. But after all, rise from 69.50 is in favor to continue as long as 75.69 support holds. Above 80.51 will target a retest on 83.95 high. However, note that Break of 75.69 will argue that rebound from 69.50 has completed and will turn focus back to this low.

In the bigger picture, crude oil was supported above mentioned 68.59 key support and thus, there was no confirmation of medium term reversal. The strong rebound from 72.43 dampened our bearish view and argue that medium term rise from 33.2 might not be over yet. Nevertheless, as such rise from 33.2 is treated as a correction to whole decline from 147.27 only, even in case of another high above 83.95, we'd continue to expect strong resistance near to 50% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2 at 90.24 to bring reversal. On the downside, though, break of 69.50 support will now indicate that crude oil has topped out in medium term already and turn outlook bearish..... Nymex Crude Oil Continuous Contract 4 Hours Chart.


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Wednesday, February 24, 2010

Crude Oil Daily Technical Outlook Wednesday Morning


Intraday bias in crude oil remained neutral for the moment and retreat from 80.51 could extend further to 4 hours 55 EMA (now at 77.69) But still, rise fro 69.50 is in favor to continue as long as 75.69 support holds. Above 80.51 will target a retest on 83.95 high. However, note that Break of 75.69 will argue that rebound from 69.50 has completed and will turn focus back to this low.

In the bigger picture, crude oil was supported above mentioned 68.59 key support and thus, there was no confirmation of medium term reversal. The strong rebound from 72.43 dampened our bearish view and argue that medium term rise from 33.2 might not be over yet. Nevertheless, as such rise from 33.2 is treated as a correction to whole decline from 147.27 only, even in case of another high above 83.95, we'd continue to expect strong resistance near to 50% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2 at 90.24 to bring reversal. On the downside, though, break of 69.50 support will now indicate that crude oil has topped out in medium term already and turn outlook bearish.....Nymex Crude Oil Continuous Contract 4 Hours Chart.


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Tuesday, February 23, 2010

Crude Oil Daily Technical Outlook For Tuesday


With 4 hours MACD crossed below signal line again, an intraday top is in place at 80.51 and bias is turned neutral. Some consolidations could be seen, with risk of retreat to 4 hours 55 EMA (now at 77.40). But downside should be contained above 75.69 support and bring another rise. Above 80.51 will target a retest on 83.95 high. However, note that Break of 75.69 will argue that rebound from 69.50 has completed and will turn focus back to this low.

In the bigger picture, crude oil was supported above mentioned 68.59 key support and thus, there was no confirmation of medium term reversal. The strong rebound from 72.43 dampened our bearish view and argue that medium term rise from 33.2 might not be over yet. Nevertheless, as such rise from 33.2 is treated as a correction to whole decline from 147.27 only, even in case of another high above 83.95, we'd continue to expect strong resistance near to 50% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2 at 90.24 to bring reversal. On the downside, though, break of 69.50 support is now needed to indicate that crude oil has topped out.....Nymex Crude Oil Continuous Contract 4 Hours Chart.


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Saturday, February 20, 2010

Crude Oil Weekly Technical Outlook


Crude oil's rise from 69.50 extended further to as high as 80.10 last week and closed strongly at 79.81. The stronger than expected rebound and break of 78.04 resistance suggests that fall from 83.95 has finished with three waves down to 69.50 already. This in turn argues that 83.95 might not be the top yet. Initial bias remains on the upside this week and further rise could be seen to retest 83.95 first. On the downside, below 77.76 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral and bring retreat towards 4 hours 55 EMA (now at 76.24). However, note that break of 72.66 support is needed to indicate that rise from 69.50 has completed. Otherwise, another rise would be in favor.

In the bigger picture, crude oil was supported above mentioned 68.59 key support and thus, there was no confirmation of medium term reversal. The stronger rebound from 72.43 dampened our bearish view and argue that medium term rise from 33.2 might not be over yet. Nevertheless, as such rise from 33.2 is treated as a correction to whole decline from 147.27 only, even in case of another high above 83.95, we'd continue to expect strong resistance near to 50% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2 at 90.24 to bring reversal. On the downside, though, break of 72.43 support is now needed to indicate that crude oil has topped out.

In the long term picture, there is no change in the view that fall from 147.27 is part of the correction to the five wave sequence from 98 low of 10.65. While the rebound from 33.2 is strong and might continue, there is no solid evidence that suggest fall 147.27 is completed and we're still preferring the case that rebound from 33.2 is merely a corrective rise only. Having said that, strong resistance should be seen between 76.77/90.24 fibo resistance zone and bring reversal for another low below 33.2 before completing the whole correction from 147.27.....Nymex Crude Oil Continuous Contract 4 Hours Chart.


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Friday, February 19, 2010

Crude Oil Technical Outlook For Friday Morning


Crude oil's rebound resumed after brief retreat and reached as high as 79.29 so far. The break of 78.04 resistance argues that fall from 83.95 has completed with three waves down to 69.50 already. Further rise is now in favor to retest this high first. On the downside, below 76.32 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral. Further break of 72.66 support will in turn indicate that rebound from 69.50 is finished and revive the case that fall from 83.95 is still in progress for another low below 69.50.

In the bigger picture, crude oil was supported above 68.59 and the stronger than expected rebound from 69.50 mixed up the outlook. Fall from 83.95 could have completed already and whole medium term rise from 33.2 might be set to resume. Nevertheless, even in case of another rise, we'd still expect strong resistance as crude oil approaches 50% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2 at 90.24 to conclude the medium term rebound from 33.2. Hence, focus will remain on reversal signal.

On the downside, break of 69.50 will revive the case that medium term rise from 33.2, which is treated as a correction to fall from 147.27, should have completed at 83.95 already, on bearish divergence condition in daily MACD. Further break of 68.50 will confirm and target next key cluster level at 58.32 (50% retracement of 33.2 to 83.95 at 58.58).....Nymex Crude Oil Continuous Contract 4 Hours Chart.

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Thursday, February 18, 2010

Crude Oil Daily Technical Outlook For Thursday


With 4 hours MACD crossed below signal line, an intraday top is in place at 77.68 and bias is turned neutral. With 78.04 resistance intact, we're still favoring the case that whole decline from 83.95 is not finished. Below 72.60 minor support will suggest that recovery from 69.50 has completed and will flip intraday bias back tot he downside for 69.50 and then 68.59 support next. However, note that decisive break of 78.04 resistance will dampen this view and argue that fall from 83.95 has completed and will bring stronger rally to retest this high.

In the bigger picture, prior break of medium term trend line support added some credence to the case of reversal. Medium term rise from 33.2, which is treated as a correction to fall from 147.27, should have completed at 83.95 already, on bearish divergence condition in daily MACD. Current fall from 83.95 should extend through 68.59 support towards next key cluster level at 58.32 (50% retracement of 33.2 to 83.95 at 58.58). Decisive break there will strongly suggest that whole decline from 147.27 is resuming for a new low below 33.2. On the upside, break of 78.04 resistance is needed to confirm that fall from 83.95 has completed. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.....Nymex Crude Oil Continuous Contract 4 Hours Chart.

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Wednesday, February 17, 2010

Crude Oil Daily Technical Outlook Wednesday Morning


Crude oil's rebound from 69.50 extended further to as high as 77.56 and remains firm. Break of 78.04 resistance will argue that whole fall from 83.95 has finished and will bring even stronger rally to retest 83.95 high. Nevertheless, before that, there is no confirmation of reversal yet. Below 72.60 will suggest that rebound from 69.50 has completed and fall from 83.95 should then be resuming for 69.50 support and below.

In the bigger picture, prior break of medium term trend line support added some credence to the case of reversal. Medium term rise from 33.2, which is treated as a correction to fall from 147.27, should have completed at 83.95 already, on bearish divergence condition in daily MACD. Current fall from 83.95 should extend through 68.59 support towards next key cluster level at 58.32 (50% retracement of 33.2 to 83.95 at 58.58). Decisive break there will strongly suggest that whole decline from 147.27 is resuming for a new low below 33.2. On the upside, break of 78.04 resistance is needed to confirm that fall from 83.95 has completed. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.....Nymex Crude Oil Continuous Contract 4 Hours Chart.


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Tuesday, February 16, 2010

Crude Oil Daily Technical Outlook For Tuesday


Crude oil's recovery from 72.60 extended further today and the development argues that rebound from 69.50 is not completed yet. Intraday bias is cautiously on the upside for the moment. Break of 75.69 resistance will bring stronger rise towards 78.04 resistance next. As noted before, break there will argue that whole fall from 83.95 has finished and will bring even stronger rally. On the downside, though, below 72.60 will flip intraday bias back to the downside for 69.50 support.

In the bigger picture, prior break of medium term trend line support added some credence to the case of reversal. Medium term rise from 33.2, which is treated as a correction to fall from 147.27, should have completed at 83.95 already, on bearish divergence condition in daily MACD. Current fall from 83.95 should extend through 68.59 support towards next key cluster level at 58.32 (50% retracement of 33.2 to 83.95 at 58.58). Decisive break there will strongly suggest that whole decline from 147.27 is resuming for a new low below 33.2. On the upside, break of 78.04 resistance is needed to confirm that fall from 83.95 has completed. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish..... Nymex Crude Oil Continuous Contract 4 Hours Chart.

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Monday, February 15, 2010

Crude Oil Daily Technical Outlook For Monday


Intraday bias in crude oil remains neutral for the moment. As noted before, recovery from 69.50 might have completed at 75.69 already. Break of 72.60 will affirm this case and flip intraday bias back to the downside for 69.50 support first. Break will confirm resumption of the whole fall from 83.95 towards next key support at 68.59. On the upside, above 75.69 will turn focus to 78.04 minor resistance. Break there will argue that whole fall from 83.95 has finished and will bring stronger rebound instead.

In the bigger picture, prior break of medium term trend line support added much credence to the case of reversal. Medium term rise from 33.2, which is treated as a correction to fall from 147.27, should have completed at 83.95 already, on bearish divergence condition in daily MACD. Current fall from 83.95 should extend through 68.59 support towards next key cluster level at 58.32 (50% retracement of 33.2 to 83.95 at 58.58). Decisive break there will strongly suggest that whole decline from 147.27 is resuming for a new low below 33.2. On the upside, break of 78.04 resistance is needed to confirm that fall from 83.95 has completed. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish......Nymex Crude Oil Continuous Contract 4 Hours Chart.


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Friday, February 12, 2010

Crude Oil Technical Outlook For Friday Morning


With 4 hours MACD crossed below signal line, crude oil's recovery from 69.50 might have completed at 75.69 already. Break of 72.60 will flip intraday bias back to the downside for retesting 69.50 first. Break will confirm decline resumption towards 68.59 support next. On the upside, above 75.69 will turn focus to 78.04 minor resistance. Break there will argue that whole fall from 83.95 has finished and will bring stronger rebound instead.

In the bigger picture, prior break of medium term trend line support added much credence to the case of reversal. Medium term rise from 33.2, which is treated as a correction to fall from 147.27, should have completed at 83.95 already, on bearish divergence condition in daily MACD. Current fall from 83.95 should extend through 68.59 support towards next key cluster level at 58.32 (50% retracement of 33.2 to 83.95 at 58.58). Decisive break there will strongly suggest that whole decline from 147.27 is resuming for a new low below 33.2. On the upside, break of 78.04 resistance is needed to confirm that fall from 83.95 has completed. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.....Nymex Crude Oil Continuous Contract 4 Hours Chart.


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Thursday, February 11, 2010

Crude Oil Daily Technical Outlook For Thursday


Crude oil's choppy rise from 69.50 is still in progress and further rebound cannot be ruled out. But after all, there is no confirmation of reversal yet as long as 78.04 resistance holds. Below 72.60 minor support will suggest that recovery from 69.50 has completed and flip intraday bias back to the down side for retesting this support first. However, break of 78.04 will argue that whole fall from 83.95 has finished and will bring stronger rebound instead.

In the bigger picture, prior break of medium term trend line support added much credence to the case of reversal. Medium term rise from 33.2, which is treated as a correction to fall from 147.27, should have completed at 83.95 already, on bearish divergence condition in daily MACD. Current fall from 83.95 should extend through 68.59 support towards next key cluster level at 58.32 (50% retracement of 33.2 to 83.95 at 58.58). Decisive break there will strongly suggest that whole decline from 147.27 is resuming for a new low below 33.2. On the upside, break of 78.04 resistance is needed to confirm that fall from 83.95 has completed. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.....Nymex Crude Oil Continuous Contract 4 Hours Chart.

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Wednesday, February 10, 2010

Crude Oil Technical Outlook For Wednesday Morning


Crude oil's rebound from 69.50 extends further and further rally cannot be ruled out. Nevertheless, there is no confirmation of reversal yet as long as 78.04 resistance holds. Below 71.3 minor support will suggest that recovery from 69.50 has completed and flip intraday bias back to the down side for retesting this support first. However, break of 78.04 will argue that whole fall from 83.95 has finished and will bring stronger rebound instead.

In the bigger picture, prior break of medium term trend line support added much credence to the case of reversal. Medium term rise from 33.2, which is treated as a correction to fall from 147.27, should have completed at 83.95 already, on bearish divergence condition in daily MACD. Current fall from 83.95 should extend through 68.59 support towards next key cluster level at 58.32 (50% retracement of 33.2 to 83.95 at 58.58). Decisive break there will strongly suggest that whole decline from 147.27 is resuming for a new low below 33.2. On the upside, break of 78.04 resistance is needed to indicate that fall from 83.95 has completed. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.....Nymex Crude Oil Continuous Contract 4 Hours Chart.


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