Weekly Crude Oil, Gold, Silver, Coffee and Sugar Markets Recap with Mike Seery

There's been plenty of traders calling for a bottom in most commodities this week....but not so fast. So there is no better time to have our trading partner Mike Seery back to give our readers a recap of last weeks commodity futures market and help us put together a plan for the upcoming week. Mike has been a senior analyst for close to 15 years and has extensive knowledge of all of the commodity and option markets.

Crude oil futures in the September contract settled last Friday in New York at 48.14 a barrel while currently trading at 47.90 down slightly for the trading week still trading below its 20 and 100 day moving average as I’ve been recommending a short position over the last several months and if you took that trade place your stop above the 10 day high which now stands at 51.41 as that will improve on a daily basis starting next week. Crude oil futures are trading below their 20 and 100 day moving average telling you that the trend is to the downside as there is very little bullish fundamental news to push prices higher in the short term and I think that will continue for quite some time as the U.S dollar still remains relatively strong despite today’s steep decline.

Many of the commodity markets continue to go lower as deflation is a worldwide problem and has been over the last several years especially when the United States stopped there quantitative easing program which propped up all asset prices including most commodities. With the possibility of China slowing down the perception is that demand will also slow down so continue to place the proper stop loss which is just a little over $3 away as this trade as fallen out of bed over the last two months, but if you have missed this recommendation sit on the sidelines and look for another market that’s beginning to trend as you have missed the boat.
Trend: Lower
Chart Structure: Excellent

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Gold futures in the December contract settled last Friday at 1,086 while currently trading at 1,194 experiencing a wild trading session this Friday afternoon with the U.S dollar trading sharply lower as I’ve been recommending a short position in the August contract as we rolled over into the December contract today so continue to place your stop loss above the 10 day high which stands at 1,110 an ounce. Gold futures have traded sideways for the last two weeks and looks to be forming some type of short term bottom, but I will stick to my trading rules and keep the proper stop loss as I still see no reason to own gold but if we are stopped out move on and look at other markets that are beginning to trend as we have been short from around the 1,170 level as prices have stalled out in recent weeks. The problem with the precious metals and gold in particular is the fact that all of the interest lies in the S&P 500 which is still hovering around all time highs as money flows continue to come out of the precious metals and into the equity markets as I think that trend is to continue throughout 2015 and at this point I would rather own stocks than own gold so continue to play this to the downside in my opinion while risking 2% of your account balance on any given trade.
Trend: Lower
Chart Structure: Outstanding

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Silver futures in the September contract settled last Friday at 14.49 an ounce while currently trading at 14.80 up about $.30 for the trading week still trading below their 20 & 100 day moving average as I’ve been short from 15.80 and if you took that trade place your stop loss at 14.99 which is the 10 day high as the chart structure is outstanding at the current time. Silver prices continue to bounce off of 14.50 as it looks to be forming a bottoming pattern but I will stick to my rules as we are just an eyelash away from getting stopped out as silver had a 40 cent trading range this Friday afternoon as the U.S dollar is down 100 points, however the trend is still lower and if we are stopped out move on and let’s find another market that’s beginning to trend as volatility is relatively low at the current time.

The Federal Reserve continues to want the inflation rate to hit 2% so they can start to raise interest rates but at this point there is very little worldwide demand for any commodity especially due to the fact that China looks to be falling off a cliff as they are the largest importer of commodities in the world and if you have not sold silver at this time the risk/reward is highly in your favor risking $.20 or $200 per mini contract plus slippage and commission as we will see what Monday’s trade brings.
Trend: Lower
Chart Structure: Outstanding

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Coffee futures settled higher for the 3rd consecutive trading session settling last Friday at 122.25 a pound while currently trading at 125.30 still trading below its 20 and 100 day moving average as I’ve been recommending a short position from the 128 level and if you took that trade place your stop loss above the 10 day high which currently stands at 128.20 as the chart structure is outstanding at the current time. The next major level of support is the contract low around 120 but I still think we can retest the January 2014 lows of 105 and if you did not take the original trade I would still sell at today’s price as the risk is around 300 points or 1,200 risk per contract plus slippage and commission. I am currently recommending short positions in cocoa, sugar, coffee as volatility is relatively low but as a trend follower I will stick to my guns on this and continue to place the proper stop loss while maintaining the proper risk management strategy of 2% of your account balance on any given trade.
Trend: Lower
Chart Structure: Outstanding

Sugar futures in the October contract settled last Friday in New York at 11.24 a pound while currently trading at 11.16 basically unchanged for the trading week as I’ve been recommending a short position from around 11.50 and if you took that recommendation the chart structure is outstanding at the current time so place your stop above the 10 day high at 11.72 risking around 50 points or $550 per contract plus slippage and commission. Sugar futures are trading far below their 20 and over 150 points below their 100 day moving average telling you that the trend is getting stronger to the downside as oversupply and over production should continue to put pressure on prices despite the fact that the U.S dollar is down over 100 points but that’s still not supporting sugar prices at this time. The reason I decided to take this trade was the fact of extremely tight chart structure which lowers monetary risk as that met my criteria to enter into a trade as I still think that there’s a possibility that prices could break 10.00 a pound in the next several weeks so continue to play this to the downside as the risk/reward is highly in your favor in my opinion.
Trend: Lower
Chart Structure: Excellent

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Weekly Crude Oil, Gold, Silver, Coffee and Sugar Markets Recap with Mike Seery

It's been a terrible week for the crude oil bulls. And our trading partner Mike Seery is back this week to give our readers a weekly recap of crude oil as well as the futures market. Mike has been a senior analyst for close to 15 years and has extensive knowledge of all of the commodity and option markets.

Crude oil futures in the September contract are trading far below their 20 and 100 day moving average telling you that the trend is to the downside after settling in New York last Friday at 51.21 currently trading at 48.45 down nearly $3 for the trading week as I’ve been recommending a short position for the last two months and if you took that trade place your stop loss above the 10 day high which currently stands at 54.00 a barrel.

The trend in the commodity markets is weak as everything seems to be melting down and remember as a commodity trader in my opinion you must trade with the trend so continue to play this to the downside. Crude oil has huge worldwide supplies coupled with a strong U.S dollar as I think prices will re-test the $45 level so continue to place the proper stop loss trying to get as much as 75% of the trend as picking tops and bottoms is impossible over the long haul in my opinion.

The stop loss will not improve for another week so you’re going to have to be patient as volatility currently is high and should remain so for weeks to come as I still believe prices are too expensive.
Trend: Lower
Chart Structure: Improving

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Gold futures in the August contract settled last Friday in New York at 1,132 an ounce while currently trading at 1,082 down about $50 for the trading week continuing its remarkable bearish trend as I’ve been recommending a short position when prices broke 1,170 and if you took that trade continue to place your stop loss above the 10 day high which currently stands at 1,160 as the chart structure will start to improve on a daily basis starting next week.

Gold prices are trading far below its 20 and 100 day moving average telling you that the short-term trend is to the downside as the next level of support is around 1,050 as I think that could be tested in next week’s trade as there’s no reason to own gold and if you’ve been reading any of my previous blogs you understand how bearish I am of the entire commodity sector as a whole. Silver prices are also hitting a six year low as I’m also recommending a short position in that market as all of the interest lies in the S&P 500 which is slightly lower this afternoon as money flows continue to come out of the precious metals and into the stock market and I don’t see that trend ending any time soon.

The U.S dollar is near a six week which continues to keep a lid on commodity prices coupled with the fact of higher U.S interest rates possibly coming later in the year as both act as negative influences on commodities historically speaking.
Trend: Lower
Chart Structure: Poor

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Silver futures in the September contract settled last Friday at 14.83 an ounce while currently trading at 14.33 down $.50 for the trading week as I’ve been recommending a short position when prices broke 15.80 and if you took that trade place your stop above the 10 day high at 15.50 as the chart structure will improve starting next week. I sound like a broken record as I continue to recommend bearish commodity plays as deflation is the problem not inflation as a strong U.S dollar will continue throughout 2015 in my opinion as gold prices are sharply lower this week as I’ve been recommending a short position in that market as the commodity market looks to have another leg down in my opinion.

The problem with the precious metals and silver is the fact that all the interest lies in the S&P 500 which is right around its all time highs as nobody wants to own the precious metals as a safe haven as the trend is your friend and clearly the trend in silver is to downside with the next major support at $14 and if that’s broken who knows how low prices could actually go. Silver futures are trading below their 20 day and far below their 100 day moving average telling you that the trend is getting stronger to the downside, however if you have missed the original recommendation sit on the sidelines and wait for the risk/reward to be in your favor which includes better chart structure.
Trend: Lower
Chart Structure: Poor

You Might Want to Know What's Behind our "Big Trade"

Coffee futures in the September contract settled last Friday at 128.40 while currently trading at 122.00 down around 600 points for the trading week as I’ve been recommending a short position and if you took that trade continue to place your stop loss above the 10 day high which currently stands at 132.50 as the chart structure will start to improve later next week. The original recommendation was to sell around the 128 level as the chart structure at that time was outstanding as the risk/reward was is your favor however, if you have not taken this trade you’re going to have to wait for some type price rally before entering. Coffee futures are trading below their 20 and 100 day moving average telling you that the trend is to the downside as I think a possible retest of the January 2014 lows around 105 could happen in the weeks to come due to the fact with large worldwide supplies coupled with the fact of a strong U.S dollar versus the Brazilian Real so I remain bearish.
Trend: Lower
Chart Structure: Poor

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Sugar futures in the October contract settled in New York last Friday at 11.96 while currently trading at 11.34 hitting a six year low as I’m currently sitting on the sidelines as the chart structure is poor as the 10 day high is too far away at 12.80 but I want to keep an eye on this market as the chart structure will improve next week as it looks like we will be playing this to the downside. Sugar futures are trading below their 20 and 100 day moving average as the long term and short term trend remain intact as the commodity markets in general remain weak and if you’ve been following my blogs you understand that I’ve been recommending a short position in many different sectors, however a 150 point risk in sugar is too high as the risk/reward is not in your favor in my opinion but I’m certainly not recommending any type of bullish position as over supplies continue to keep a lid on prices.
Trend: Lower
Chart Structure: Poor

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Weekly Crude Oil, Gold, Silver, Coffee and Sugar Markets Recap with Mike Seery

It's been a wild ride in the markets this week. And our trading partner Mike Seery is back this week to give our readers a weekly recap of the futures market. He has been a senior analyst for close to 15 years and has extensive knowledge of all of the commodity and option markets.

Crude oil futures in the August contract settled last Friday at 52.74 a barrel while currently trading at 50.78 down about $2 for the trading week hitting a four month low while still trading far below its 20 and 100 day moving average telling you that the trend is to the downside as I’ve been recommending a short position for six weeks and if you took that trade the 10 day stop has been lowered to 53.90 as the chart structure has improved tremendously.

Oil prices retreated this week due to the fact that of the Iranian deal which should put more oil onto the market down the road as 49 is major support and if that is broken you could have sharply lower prices ahead as oversupply issues still remain as the commodity markets still look weak due to the fact of a very strong U.S dollar which hit a six week high in this week’s trade.

The precious metals continue to make new lows as well as generally speaking metal prices and energy prices go hand in hand in the same direction and that direction is to the downside so continue to place the proper stop loss as this has been an outstanding trade over the course of time as are patience were tested but the path of least resistance is the successful way to trade in my opinion.
Trend: Lower
Chart Structure: Excellent

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Gold futures in the August contract settled last Friday in New York at 1,158 an ounce while currently trading at 1,137 down about $20 for the week hitting a five year low as I’ve been recommending a short position when prices broke 1,170 and if you took the original recommendation place your stop loss at the 10 day high which was lowered to 1,170 as the chart structure will start to improve on a daily basis.

Gold prices are trading far below their 20 and 100 day moving average as prices look to head lower as I’ve talked about in many previous blogs I see absolutely no reason to own the precious metals at the current time as deflation is a worldwide problem as the U.S dollar hit a six week high in this week’s trade.

Crude oil prices are also continuing their bearish trend which is also pressuring the precious metals and silver is also right near recent lows so continue to play by the rules while taking advantage of any rallies as I would like to add to this trade as I think we will break 1,100 possibly in the next couple of weeks as the trend is getting stronger on a weekly basis as the risk/reward still meets criteria.

The stock market is hitting all time highs once again today as I talked about many times all the interest lays in the equity market and not the precious metals as money flows continue to come out of the metals & into equities as that should continue in 2015 so remain short.
Trend: Lower
Chart Structure: Excellent

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Silver futures in the September contract continued their bearish momentum settling last Friday in New York at 15.48 an ounce while currently trading at 14.80 down about $.70 for the trading week as I’ve been recommending a short position from 15.80 and if you took that trade place your stop loss above the 10 day high which currently stands at 15.90 as the chart structure will not improve for several more trading days as silver prices have hit a five year low.

Silver futures are trading far below their 20 and 100 day moving average with a possible retest of last week’s low around 14.62 in the cards and if that level is broken I think there could be a washout to the downside as there’s no reason to own the precious metals at the current time as the U.S dollar hit a six week high.

Platinum prices have cracked $1,000 which has not happened in over five years as the dollar continues to put pressure on gold and silver prices here in the short term as deflation is a worldwide problem not inflation so continue to take advantage of any rallies will placing the proper stop loss as I think lower prices are still ahead despite this weeks 70 cent decline.
Trend: Lower
Chart Structure: Improving

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Coffee futures in the September contract settled last Friday in New York at 126.25 a pound while currently trading at 128.30 as I’ve been recommending a short position from around this level as the chart structure is outstanding at the current time as the 10 day high stands at 132.50 risking around 400 points or $1,600 from today’s price levels plus slippage and commission.

Coffee prices continue to move lower on a weekly basis as the downtrend line remains intact, however if you have not taken this recommendation I am still promoting a sell order at today’s levels as the risk/reward is highly in your favor as coffee is an extremely large contract as I do think the retest of the contract low around 125 could be in the cards next week.

The problem with coffee prices and many of the agricultural markets is that we have too much supply coupled with the fact of an extremely weak Brazilian Real versus the U.S dollar which is pressuring anything that’s grown in the country of Brazil so take a shot at the downside as the risk and the chart structure both meet my criteria to enter into a trade, however if we are stopped out which there is that possibility since the stop is so close look at other markets that are trending and don’t be stubborn.
Trend: Lower
Chart Structure: Outstanding

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Sugar futures in the October contract settled last Friday in New York at 12.41 a pound while trading at 11.98 down around 40 points for the trading week as I’ve been sitting on the sidelines in this market as the trend remains choppy as prices are trading lower for the 3rd consecutive down day still trading below its 20 and 100 day moving average, as the down trend line is still intact but I’m waiting for a breakout to occur which would be the contract low of 11.52 to the downside.

Many of the commodity markets have been going lower including crude oil which is also putting pressure on sugar prices as sugar is used as a biodiesel but the real problem is the U.S dollar which continues to move higher as I’m not bullish any commodity at this time as oversupply issues and deflation worldwide continues to put pressure on prices.

Sometimes the best thing to do is not trade and avoid markets at certain times and that’s what I’m stressing right now as choppiness is difficult and frustrating as there are many other markets that are trending significantly to the downside such as gold, silver, hogs, and several others.
Trend: Mixed
Chart Structure: Solid

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Weekly Crude Oil, Gold, Coffee and Sugar Markets Recap with Mike Seery

Our trading partner Mike Seery is back this week to give our readers a weekly recap of the Futures market. He has been a senior analyst for close to 15 years and has extensive knowledge of all of the commodity and option markets.

Crude oil futures settled last Friday in New York at 60.54 a barrel in July contract while currently trading at 59.72 down about $1.00 this Friday afternoon trading below its 20 day but above its 100 day moving average as the trend currently is mixed. I will be recommending a short position if oil breaks $50 a barrel then placing your stop loss above the 10 day high but at the current time I’m sitting on the sidelines waiting for a breakout to occur as the U.S dollar was up 300 points this trading week reversing much of its recent losses putting pressure on many commodity prices in the last several days.

Sometimes as a trader the best thing to do is sit on the sidelines and be patient and wait for a trend to develop as this market could be headed to the downside in my opinion next week so keep a close eye on this market as a possible trade is coming. Its Memorial Day weekend here in the United States which creates high demand for unleaded gasoline as millions of Americans will be on the road in the next several days, however I think that’s already been priced into the market as the fundamentals I do believe will turn bearish once again but avoid choppy markets as they are very difficult to trade successfully in my opinion and wait for the breakouts to occur which could happen in Tuesday trade.
Trend: Mixed
Chart Structure: Improving

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Gold futures in the June contract are trading above their 20 day but below their 100 day moving average telling you that the trend remains mixed as I’ve been sitting on the sidelines in this market for quite some time as prices are stuck in an eight week consolidation. The U.S dollar was up over 300 points for the trading week as the ECB basically stated that they will add more stimulus to push the Euro currency lower as the tide has turned and I see no reason to own gold at the present time coupled with the fact that the stock market is hitting another all time high as interest is in the equities and not in the precious metals. The next breakout is around 1,230 to the upside but the chart structure is poor at the current time so look at other markets that are beginning to trend as the U.S dollar in my opinion looks to break 100 in the coming weeks which will continue to put pressure on gold prices. Gold settled last Friday at 1,225 an ounce while currently trading at 1,205 down $20 for the trading week as Memorial Day weekend is upon us.
Trend: Mixed
Chart Structure: Poor

Coffee futures in July contract are lower for the 4th consecutive trading session at 126.50 a pound hitting a fresh contract low trading far below their 20 and 100 day moving average as world production was raised to 154.5 million bags above recent estimates sending coffee prices sharply lower as I was recommending a short position, however I got stopped out as prices hit the 10 day high and I’m now sitting on the sidelines as the risk is too high in my opinion. The chart structure in coffee is terrible at the current time but I’m certainly not recommending any type of bullish position as prices could retest the September 2013 lows around 105 a pound in the coming weeks as worldwide production seems to be growing on a weekly basis. As a trader I look for the risk/reward to be in your favor coupled with very solid chart structure but at the current time this market does not meet either of those theories so I have to wait for better chart structure to develop as it might take a week or so depending on market activity, however lower prices look to be ahead as many of the agricultural markets especially the soft commodities continue to move lower in the short term, however oversold conditions currently exist in my opinion.
Trend: Lower
Chart Structure: Poor

Sugar futures in the July contract are trading lower for the 3rd consecutive trading session as I was recommending a bullish futures position when prices broke out around 13.55 getting stopped out this week around the 12.66 level losing around 90 points or $1,000 plus slippage and commission as that trade went south immediately. Sugar futures are now trading below their 20 and 100 day moving average hitting a 7 week low as I’m now sitting on the sidelines as the chart structure remains poor at the current time. Sugar futures settled last Friday at 12.86 while currently trading at 12.37 down about 50 points for the trading week as this market remains extremely choppy as I will wait for a lower risk entry point which could be several weeks away in my opinion. Many of the commodity markets remain choppy as I have very few recommendations at the current time as I’m trend follower but the one thing that I do understand is that the trends will come back it just may take some time so be patient as volatility will come back.
Trend: Lower
Chart Structure: Poor

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Weekly Crude Oil, Gold, Silver and Coffee Markets Recap with Mike Seery

Our trading partner Mike Seery is back this week to give our readers a weekly recap of the Futures market. He has been Senior Analyst for close to 15 years and has extensive knowledge of all of the commodity and option markets.

Crude oil futures in the June contract are trading above their 20 and 100 day moving average as I’ve talked about in many previous blogs I’m sitting on the sidelines in this market but I do think prices have topped out around $62 which seems to be major resistance as prices settled last Friday at 59.37 while currently trading at 59.70 up slightly for the trading week. If you are currently long this market I would place my stop loss below the 10 day low which currently stands around 58.40 as Saudi Arabia this week stated that prices will never get to $100 again and actually said in the next decade prices could stay below $40 as the world is awash with crude oil at the current time. The U.S dollar hit a 4 month low this week and that has pushed up oil prices and many of the commodity prices as the CRB index hit a five month high as well but I do think this rally as long in the tooth as lower prices are ahead but I’m still sitting on the sidelines waiting for better chart structure to develop.
Trend: Higher
Chart Structure: Improving

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Gold futures in the June contract are trading above their 20 and 100 day moving average looking to breakout after a 7 week consolidation after settling in New York last Friday at 1,189 currently trading at 1,220 rallying about $30 over the last week as the U.S dollar hit a 4 month low pushing up the precious metals and many commodity prices in general. I am currently sitting on the sidelines in this market as I’m waiting for better chart structure as the 10 day low needs to be raised before we enter, however we could be looking at possibly getting into a bullish position sometime next week as I’m certainly not recommending any type of short position as that’s countertrend at the current time.

The 10 day low is over $40 away so before entering this trade I would like to see the stop loss around $25 away which could happen in week’s trade as the risk factor is my number one formula before entering into a trade so sit on the sidelines and wait for 1,225 to be broken with solid chart structure as my last two recommendations were both to the downside & both were small losers. As a trader you must have thick skin and have to forget about past winners and losers and stay with your trading system and my trading system is a trend following system as I will enter this trade on the upside without blinking twice if the trade meets criteria.
Trend: Higher
Chart structure: Poor

Silver futures in the July contract are trading higher for the 4th consecutive trading session after settling last Friday in New York at 16.47 an ounce up over $1 for the trading week hitting an 11 week high, however the chart structure is extremely poor at the current time so I’m sitting on the sidelines but I’m certainly not recommending any short positions as the trend clearly is to the upside due to the U.S dollar which is down around 800 points over the last 2 months supporting prices here in the short term. Silver futures are trading above their 20 and 100 day moving average telling you that the trend is to the upside, however the 10 day low it’s too far away to meet criteria so keep an eye on this market and take advantage of any price dips as silver certainly looks to be moving higher in my opinion.

Silver prices continued to flirt with the 15.50 level and was unable to break so now prices are looking at the critical 17.50 level as major resistance and then 18.45 as conditions are overbought at the current time so look for profit taking to ensue before entering a bullish position in my opinion. Volatility in silver has increased in the last several days as silver historically speaking is one of the most volatile commodities on a daily basis so make sure you place the proper amount of contracts risking 2% of your account balance on any given trade as the last two recommendations in silver were to the downside and both were small losses.
Trend: Higher
Chart Structure: Poor

Coffee futures in the July contract settled last Friday at 134.65 while currently trading at 138 as I’ve been recommending a short position when prices broke the 135 level and if you took the original trade continue to place your stop at 138.30 on a closing basis as we could be stopped out possibly in today’s trade. The volatility in coffee is extremely low at the current time with outstanding chart structure but if you are stopped out move on and look at other markets that are beginning to trend as I’m very surprised to see this little volatility in such a highly volatile commodity.

Coffee prices have stalled out around the 130 level over the last several months as I would have to think that volatility will start to increase as we’re hanging in there by the skin of our teeth and if you did not take this trade look at other markets as well as it looks like this trend is starting to fizzle out in my opinion.

When you trade the commodity markets you must accept many small losses and that’s what occurring to me over the last several weeks as the loss will be around $1,200 but percentage wise was very small and that’s what I always try to stipulate that you must make sure that you risk 2% maximum on any given trade because you will have more losers than winners over the course of time in my opinion as the object is to let your winners run and cut your losses.
Trend: Mixed
Chart Structure: Excellent

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Mike Seerys Weekly Crude Oil, Gold, Silver and Coffee Market Summary

We've asked our trading partner Michael Seery to give our readers a weekly recap of the futures market. He has been a senior analyst for close to 15 years and has extensive knowledge of all of the commodity and option markets.

Here's Mikes call on crude oil, gold and silver. Read more of his calls for this week by visiting here.

Crude oil futures in the May contract are down $1.00 this Thursday afternoon currently trading at 49.00 a barrel after closing last Friday at 40.87 basically unchanged for the trading week with very volatile trading sessions including yesterday when prices were up about $3 dollars as I’m still sitting on the sidelines in this market as the trend remains mixed and very choppy. Crude oil futures have been consolidating between $45 – $55 for the last three months after falling out of bed from around $90 a barrel to around $45 and that doesn’t surprise me as we could see sideways action for several more months to come so be patient and look at another market that’s currently trending.

If you take a look at the daily chart there’s a possible double bottom being created around the $45 level and if you are bullish this market and think prices have bottomed I would probably take a shot at today’s price level while placing my stop loss below $45 risking around $4,000 per contract plus slippage and commission, however like I stated I’m currently waiting for a true breakout to occur. Traders are awaiting tomorrow’s monthly unemployment number, however markets will be closed so the reaction will happen on Sunday night and that will send high volatility into the market as expectations are 244,000 new jobs added as a stronger economy certainly creates stronger demand for gasoline and crude oil.
Trend: Mixed
Chart Structure: Solid

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Gold futures in the June contract are down $11 this Thursday afternoon in New York trading at 1,197 an ounce basically unchanged for the trading week as investors are awaiting tomorrow’s monthly appointment number which should send high volatility into this market as prices have rallied about $60 over the last three weeks as profit-taking ensued in today’s trading action. Gold futures are trading above their 20 day but still below their 100 day moving average telling you that the trend is mixed as I’m sitting on the sidelines waiting for better chart structure to develop as tomorrows trade should be very interesting.

Estimates are around 244,000 new jobs added so any number higher than that will probably send gold prices sharply lower as that might in turn tell the Federal Reserve that interest rates might have to be raised sooner rather than later. The next major resistance in gold prices is at 1,220 as that’s the true breakout to the upside in my opinion, however the chart structure remains poor at the current time so wait for a tighter trading range to develop allowing you to place your stop loss minimizing risk as much as possible and try to stick with trades that are trending as this market remains very choppy so avoid gold at the current time.
Trend: Mixed
Chart structure: Poor

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Silver futures in the May contract settled last Friday at 17.07 an ounce while currently trading at 16.85 on this holiday shortened week due to the Good Friday holiday tomorrow the markets will be closed finishing down around 20 cents for the trading week still hovering near a 6 week high. Silver futures are trading below their 20 and 100 day moving average as I have been sitting on the sidelines in this market as the chart structure is poor at the current time, however if you are bullish silver prices and think prices have bottomed my recommendation would be to buy at today’s price while placing your stop loss at the 10 day low which currently stands at 16.47 risking about $.40 or $400 per mini contract plus slippage and commission.

Volatility in silver and the precious metals as a whole has come back as weakness in the S&P 500 is starting to put money back into the precious metals in the short term as the U.S dollar has been consolidating their recent run up as I still see choppiness ahead in silver as I’m waiting for a better chart pattern and tighter chart structure to develop therefore allowing you to place a tighter stop loss minimizing monetary risk. TREND: HIGHER
CHART STRUCTURE: POOR

Coffee futures in the May contract are currently trading up 300 points at 137.80 a pound basically finishing unchanged for the trading week as volatility remains high despite the fact that prices remain in an extremely tight trading range over the last four weeks between 130 – 145 as a breakout is looming in my opinion as I’m currently sitting on the sidelines waiting for something to develop.

If you have been following my previous blogs I have very few recommendations at the current time as many of the commodity markets are consolidating in the sideways pattern just like the coffee market as a breakout will not occur until prices break above 145 or below 130 as we start to enter the frost season in Brazil which can occur in May and June like it did in 1994 sending prices from 60 all the way up to around 260 in a matter of weeks.

In my opinion coffee prices are on the verge of a bottoming pattern and we might go sideways for quite some time so keep a close eye on this market as this sleeping giant will wake up once again. Coffee prices traded as high as 230 just 6 months ago dropping dramatically as excellent weather conditions persisted throughout the growing year in Brazil but that has already been priced into the market as volatility certainly will increase. Trend: Mixed
Chart structure: Excellent


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Mike Seerys Weekly Crude Oil, Gold and Silver Market Summary

We've asked our trading partner Michael Seery to give our readers a weekly recap of the futures market. He has been a senior analyst for close to 15 years and has extensive knowledge of all of the commodity and option markets.

Here's Mikes call on crude oil, gold and silver. Read more of his calls for this week by visiting here.

Crude oil futures in the May contract are down $1.50 this Friday afternoon trading at 49.70 after settling last Friday at 46.57 up over $3 dollars for the trading week as prices traded as high as 52.48 in yesterday’s trade because of the fact of a possible war developing between Saudi Arabia and Yemen sending prices sharply higher.

I was recommending a short position in crude oil getting stopped out in yesterday’s trade giving back most of the profits, however the trade was still slightly profitable but disappointing as prices rallied 4 straight trading sessions before today with a possible double bottom around the 45.00 level being created. At the current time I’m sitting on the sidelines waiting for another trend to develop as a true breakout to the upside will be above 55.00 and the downside breakout won’t occur until prices break the contract low around 45.00 a barrel so keep an eye on this market as the chart structure remains outstanding.

Crude oil futures are still trading below their 20 and 100 day moving average telling you that the trend is to the downside, however my exit strategy is if I’m short and prices hit a two week high against me then it’s time to move on and look at other markets that are beginning to trend as you must have an exit strategy as holding and never getting out of a position is extremely dangerous in my opinion as you must be nimble. At the current time I’m holding very few positions as I got stopped out of many positions in the last week so currently I’m only short sugar, lean hogs, and soybeans and I will be sitting on the sidelines waiting for new trends to develop.
Trend: Mixed
Chart structure: Excellent

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Gold futures in the April contract settled last Friday at 1,185 an ounce currently trading at 1,200 up $15 for the trading week closing higher 8 out of the last 9 trading sessions in an impressive rally which started all the way back at 1,140 peeking out in yesterday’s trade at 1,220 as Saudi Arabia is sending ground troops into the country of Yemen sending the market sharply higher as that altercation looks to stay for some time to come.

Gold futures are trading above their 20 but below their 100 day moving average telling you that the trend is mixed as I’m currently sitting on the sidelines in this market as I was recommending a short position last week getting stopped out in last Fridays trade and that’s why you must have an exit strategy as the 10 day high was 1,177 as we have rallied $43 higher from that level this week with major resistance at 1,220 which is the true breakout in my opinion, and if that level is broken I would be recommending a bullish position but at this point in time I am neutral as the chart structure is poor at the current time due to the fact of the recent run up in prices.

Gold futures have been extremely choppy over the last six months and choppy markets in my opinion are very difficult to trade successfully so at this point look for another trend that is starting to develop.
Trend: Higher
Chart structure: Poor

Silver futures in the May contract settled last Friday in New York at 16.88 an ounce while currently trading this Friday afternoon at 17.08 up around 20 cents for the trading week hitting a four week high and now trading above its 20 and 100 day moving average telling you that the trend is to the upside. I was recommending a short position in silver getting stopped out last week at the 2 week high which was around 16.20 and currently I’m sitting on the sidelines waiting for better chart structure to develop as the 10 day low is around 15.35 which is a $1.70 away as the risk is too high at the moment. Silver futures traded as high as 17.40 in yesterday’s trade on news that Saudi Arabia is sending ground troops into the country of Yemen as a possible war is at hand as the U.S dollar has also dropped about 4% from its contract high lending support to the precious metals as a whole. In my opinion I think you should wait for better chart structure to develop so be patient and keep an eye on this market as the trend may have turned to the upside but I will wait for a lower risk trade before entering.
Trend: Higher
Chart structure: Poor


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Mike Seerys Weekly Crude Oil, Gold and Silver Market Summary

We've asked our trading partner Michael Seery to give our readers a weekly recap of the futures market. He has been a senior analyst for close to 15 years and has extensive knowledge of all of the commodity and option markets.

Here's Mikes call on crude oil, gold and silver. Read more of his calls for this week by visiting here.

Crude oil futures in the May contract are up $1.20 a barrel currently trading at 46.70 as I've been recommending a short position when prices broke out to contract lows earlier last week and if you took that trade continue to place your stop loss at the 10 day high which currently stands at 52.00 risking around $7 dollars or $3,500 per mini contract plus slippage and commission as the chart structure remains poor, however it will start to tighten up on a daily basis next week.

Crude oil futures rallied today because of the fact that the U.S dollar is down 160 points pushing up many commodity prices, however as the trend follower I continue to think lower prices are ahead so make sure you place the proper amount of contracts on risking 2% of your account balance as oversupply issues are currently keeping a lid on prices.

The precious metals, grain market, stock markets, and the energy complex were all higher today as it seems to me that we had a relief rally taking place due to the fact that of the FOMC minutes which were construed bullish as interest rates are not going higher in the short term . As a trader I believe you must follow the trend and the short term trend is to the downside so don’t let a 1 or 2 day rally bother you as you must stick to the rules and that sometimes means giving back profits.
Trend: Lower
Chart Structure: Poor

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Gold futures in the April contract are higher for the 3rd consecutive trading session hitting a 2 week high as I have been recommending a short position getting stopped out in today's trade licking my wounds as I'm a little disappointed as it was all based on the FOMC minutes as they are not going to raise interest rates anytime soon pushing up many of the commodity markets especially the precious metals.

Gold futures are still trading below their 20 and 100 day moving average, however as an exit strategy when I'm short and prices hit a two week high it’s time to move on and sit on the sidelines as prices settled last Friday at 1,152 while currently trading at 1,187 up over $30 in an impressive week especially considering the fact that the NASDAQ 100 has crossed 5000 once again as everything is basically higher across the board this afternoon.

I've been recommending a short position from around 1,160 getting stopped out at 1,177 as it was a losing trade but nothing horrific but disappointing as always when you're on the wrong side of a trade, however I do think we will be sitting on the sidelines in this market for quite some time waiting for better chart structure to develop as I think prices will chop around trading off of the U.S dollar which has turned very volatile at the current time.
Trend: Mixed
Chart Structure: Poor

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Silver futures in the May contract are sharply higher this Friday afternoon trading up $.75 in New York hitting a four week high as I’ve been recommending a short position in silver prices getting stopped out around the 16.20 level as prices have skyrocketed off the FOMC minutes stating that they will not raise interest rates sending many commodities sharply higher on short covering alone. Silver futures are trading above their 20 but still below their 100 day moving average as I’m now advising clients to sit on the sidelines and wait for better chart structure to develop as prices settled last Friday at 15.50 finishing up almost $1.40 for the trading week having one of its best weeks in months as the U.S dollar is down 160 points pushing up the precious metals in today’s action.

I’ve been recommending a short position from around the 15.60 level losing around $.60 on the trade or $600 per mini contract and I’m disappointed but it’s time to move on and look at another market that is currently trending as many of the commodities may have experienced a short term bounce as it looks like interest rates flat out are not going higher. The chart structure in silver at the current time is terrible as prices have skyrocketed in the last three days as volatility is high once again so look at a different market with less risk at the current time as the 15.50 breakout to the downside was false and that happens so you have to deal with it and risk as little amount of money as possible.
Trend: Mixed
Chart Structure: Poor


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Mike Seerys Weekly Crude Oil, Gold and Silver Market Summary

We've asked our trading partner Michael Seery to give our readers a weekly recap of the futures market. He has been a senior analyst for close to 15 years and has extensive knowledge of all of the commodity and option markets.

Here's Mikes call on crude oil, gold and silver. Read more of his calls for this week by visiting here.

Crude oil futures in the April contract are trading lower for the 4th consecutive trading session hitting new contract lows at 44.98 a barrel as I’ve been recommending a short position in yesterday trade around the $48 level & if you took that trade continue place your stop loss above the 10 day high which currently stands at 52.40 risking around $7 dollars or $3,500 per mini contract plus slippage and commission.

Prices in my opinion are headed sharply lower as prices are trading below their 20 and 100 day moving as prices were consolidating over the last six weeks but you’re going to have to be patient in this trade as the 10 day high will not be lowered for another five days so continue to play this to the downside taking advantage of any rallies maintaining the proper amount of contracts risking 2% of your account balance on any given trade.

The U.S dollar is sharply higher again this week pushing many of the commodity markets including the S&P 500 lower which has been very resilient until recently as there seems to be a worldwide slowdown occurring as the commodity markets all look weak so continue to trade with the trend as I don’t know how low prices can go but I do think in my opinion prices are headed lower as whenever a commodity makes a new contract low that’s not a good sign if you are in a bullish position.
Trend: Lower
Chart Structure: Poor

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Gold futures in the April contract settled in New York last Friday at $1,164 an ounce while currently trading at 1,156 down about 8 dollars for the trading week in a relatively nonvolatile trading session still trading below its 20 and 100 day moving average telling you that the trend is to the downside as I have been recommending a short position as of last Friday and if you took that trade place your stop loss above the 10 day high which currently stands at 1,214 risking around $2,400 per mini contract, however the chart structure will start to improve dramatically next week lowering the stop loss.

The problem with gold at current time is the fact that the U.S dollar is sharply higher this week once again continuing to put pressure on the commodity markets as I don't see that trend stopping anytime soon as the next level of support is 1,130 – 1,140 & if that level is broken you would have to think that gold prices will trade below 1,100 and if you look at platinum prices they are hitting another contract low so I think gold will catch up to platinum to the downside.

Many of the commodity markets continue to go lower as well with crude oil prices retesting contract lows once again also pressuring the precious metals as the trend is your friend and I continue to think that there is no reason to own gold at this time so continue to sell as well as maintaining the proper amount of contracts risking 2% of your account balance on any given trade.
Trend: Lower
Chart Structure: Improving

Silver futures in the May contract settled last Friday at 15.80 while currently trading in New York at 15.50 down about $.30 for the trading week hitting a four month low while breaking critical support at 15.55 an ounce as I’m recommending a short position in this market & if you took this trade place your stop loss above the 10 day high which was lowered to 16.58 risking around $1,100 per mini contract plus slippage and commission, however the chart structure will tighten up considerably next week.

I sound like a broken record as I’m pessimistic the entire commodity market due to the fact that the U.S dollar hit a 12 year high once again as I do think prices can retest the December 1st 2014 low of 14.70 an ounce as I see no reason to own the precious metals at this time especially with higher interest rates on the horizon and an incredibly strong U.S dollar both very pessimistic fundamental indicator towards the precious metals and silver prices as a whole.

Silver futures are trading below their 20 and 100 day moving average telling you that the trend is to the downside and if 14.70 is broken you can see a freefall in prices possibly down around the 12.50 level in the next 6 to 8 weeks as the trend is getting stronger on a weekly basis.
Trend: Lower
Chart Structure: Improving


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He's Back....Mike Seerys Weekly Crude Oil and Gold Market Summary

We've asked our trading partner Michael Seery to give our readers a weekly recap of the futures market. He has been a senior analyst for close to 15 years and has extensive knowledge of all of the commodity and option markets.

Here's Mikes call on crude oil and gold. Read more of his calls for this week by visiting here.

Crude oil futures in the April contract are trading below their 20 and 100 day moving average telling you that the short term trend is to the downside however I have been recommending investors to sit on the sidelines in this market as prices have been in a tight consolidation trading between $48 – $55 for the last five weeks as I’m waiting for another trend to develop.

Crude oil futures settled last Friday at 49.76 a barrel while currently trading at 49.70 basically unchanged but currently down $1.00 this Friday as the U.S dollar is up 130 points putting pressure on many of the commodity markets. At the current time there is a struggle between the bulls and bears as deflation is a worldwide concern, however the U.S monthly unemployment number came in very strong which could increase demand especially when you’re starting to enter a strong driving season which can push prices higher however sit on the sidelines and wait for a trend to occur making sure that you risk 2% of your account balance on any given trade as the chart structure currently is outstanding so a breakout is looming in my opinion.

Oil prices are consolidating over the last month or so after falling from around $90 and that is understandable as prices could go sideways for several more months but as a trader I want to follow the trend and this trend is mixed at the current time so look at other markets.
Trend: Mixed
Chart Structure: Excellent

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Gold futures in the April contract are trading far below their 20 and 100 day moving average telling you that the trend is to the downside after settling last Friday at 1,213 while trading at 1,172 down $22 this Friday afternoon as the monthly unemployment report was construed as bullish sending gold to a 9 week low.

The U.S dollar is hitting another contract high up 110 points putting pressure on the precious metals as I'm currently recommending a short position in the mini contract which is $33 for every dollar move while placing your stop above the 10 day high which currently stands 1,223 risking around 50 points or $1800 per contract plus slippage and commission.

In my opinion I believe the U.S dollar will continue its bullish trend and therefore should continue putting bearish pressure on gold and silver prices here in the short term as the next level of support is at 1,165 and if that is breached I think that we test the contract low around 1,130 so continue to play this to the downside as the chart structure will start to improve later next week tightening the stop and reducing monetary risk.

Many of the commodity and stock markets were lower today due to the fact that United States treasury bonds plummeted this afternoon sending yields higher as now the speculation is that the Federal Reserve will start to raise rates in June which is another pessimistic fundamental indicator towards gold prices.
Trend: Lower
Chart Structure: Solid

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Mike Seerys Weekly Crude Oil and Gold Market Summary

We've asked our trading partner Michael Seery to give our readers a weekly recap of the futures market. He has been a senior analyst for close to 15 years and has extensive knowledge of all of the commodity and option markets.

Here's Mikes call on crude oil and gold. Read more of his calls for this week by visiting here.

Crude oil futures are trading above their 20 but still below their 100 day moving average telling you that the trend is mixed as I have been advising clients to sit on the sidelines until volatility slows down which could take some time. Crude oil futures settled last Friday at 53.67 a barrel while currently trading around 51.20 in the April contract down around $2.50 for the trading week.

The chart structure is starting to improve as prices have been trading between 50-55 in the last 2 weeks looking to breakout soon so keep a close eye on this market as a breakout above $55 could be in the cards but be patient as the trend is still choppy with no short term trend which does not meet my criteria to enter.

The API report came out yesterday stating that we had 14 million barrels in storage versus the 3 million estimate sending prices down over $2 as the fundamentals still remain bearish as currently there is still an oversupply issue in the short term.
Trend: Mixed
Chart Structure: OK

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Gold futures in the April contract settled last Friday at 1,227 while currently at 1,207 down about $20 for the trading week still trading below their 20 & 100 moving average telling you that the trend is to the downside as prices have hit a 6 week low. I am currently sitting on the sidelines awaiting better chart structure to develop as investors continue to put money into the equity market as gold seems to be entering into a bearish trend once again in my opinion.

The next level of major support is around the 1,180 level and if that level is broken I would have think that a retest of the contract low which was hit in early November 2014 could be in the cards so keep a close eye on this trade because a trade could be coming if chart structure improves and that could happen next week.

Problems around the world seem to be out of the lime light at the current time as I don’t see any real reason to own gold as I remain bullish the S&P 500 as the U.S dollar continues to hover around 11 year highs as I think the dollar is in a secular bull market for some time to come as Europe’s economy is not as strong as the United States as that’s also a negative fundamental influence on gold prices.
Trend: Lower
Chart Structure: Poor

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Weekly Crude Oil and Gold Recap with Mike Seery

It's time for our weekly commodity futures recap with our trading partner Mike Seery. He has been Senior Analyst for close to 15 years and has extensive knowledge of all of the commodity and option markets. And frequently appears on multiple business networks including Bloomberg news, Fox Business, CNBC Worldwide, CNN Business, and Bloomberg TV. He is also a guest on First Business, which is a national and internationally syndicated business show.

Crude oil futures in the March contract are trading above their 20 but still below their 100 day moving average settling last Friday at 51.69 a barrel while trading up $1.80 this Friday afternoon currently trading at $53 a barrel right near a 6 week high as the chart structure is starting to improve. I have been advising traders to sit on the sidelines and avoid this market as volatility is extremely high but it does look to me that prices are bottoming here in the short term still waiting for a breakout to occur while maintaining the proper risk management as I do need to see better chart structure as volatility is too high for my blood at the current time.

The U.S dollar is still right near 11 year highs as that market is also trending sideways giving little direction for crude oil as prices look to consolidate that massive move down in my opinion over the next several months as I think volatility is going to remain extremely high but avoid this market and look for another trend that’s just beginning. Crude oil has been the leader in recent months to the downside so when you start to see a bottoming formation possibly occur now you’re starting to see many of the other commodities like grains and metals move higher but only time will tell to see if this is a dead cat bounce or the long term bottom being created
Trend: Higher
Chart Structure: Improving

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Gold futures in the April contract are up $13 this afternoon in New York currently trading at $1,233 an ounce after settling last Friday around $1,235 basically unchanged for the trading week still right near 4 week lows is I’m recommending investors to sit on the sidelines in this market as the trend is currently mixed. Gold futures are trading below their 20 but just barely above their 100 day moving average as the S&P 500 had a terrific week as the Dow Jones cracked 18,000 to the upside as that’s where the interest lies currently as the next major level of support is between $1,180 – $1,220 but sit on the sidelines as the chart structure is absolutely terrible at the current time.

If you have followed any of my previous blogs I constantly stress the fact to avoid markets that are choppy as I think the success rate is very low unless you are some type of day trader but I hold positions overnight so look for another market that is beginning to trend and keep an eye on gold as I don’t think we will be trading this market for quite some time. The U.S dollar is still right near 11 year high and that’s always pessimistic commodities in general especially the precious metals but at the current time I just don’t have an opinion on this market as I think we will chop around in the short term.
Trend: Mixed
Chart Structure: Poor

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Weekly Crude Oil and Gold Futures Recap with Mike Seery

It's time for our weekly commodity futures recap with our trading partner Mike Seery. He has been Senior Analyst for close to 15 years and has extensive knowledge of all of the commodity and option markets. And frequently appears on multiple business networks including Bloomberg news, Fox Business, CNBC Worldwide, CNN Business, and Bloomberg TV. He is also a guest on First Business, which is a national and internationally syndicated business show.

Crude oil futures in the March contract finished up around $1.50 a barrel closing around 52.00 after settling last Friday at 48.24 experiencing one of the best rallies we’ve seen it many months as prices are trading far above their 20 day moving average as I have not been able to say that in 6 months but still below their 100 day moving average which stands at $64 a barrel as I am neutral this market as I was recommending anybody who was short to place your stop at the 10 day high which was 49.20 as that stop was very beneficial as prices have rallied over $3 since that level was hit.

Volatility in crude oil is absolutely astronomical with prices moving 5/7% on a daily basis so please avoid this market as the volatility and the risk is out of control at the current time so wait for better chart structure to develop allowing you to place tighter stops minimizing risk and that could take some time as I don’t see the volatility slowing down anytime soon.

The U.S dollar was up 120 points today but had no effect on crude oil prices as crude is now trading right near a 4 week high, however the chart structure is terrible as the 10 day low is about a $9,000 risk from today’s price levels as that is too much risk in my opinion, however keep a close eye on this market because in a couple of days that could change as a trader I’m strictly a trend follower and if this market starts going up I will be bullish and if the market starts to go down breaking $44 I will be bearish but right now I can’t stress enough to look at other markets and avoid this market like the plague.
Trend: Mixed
Chart structure: Awful

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Gold futures in the April contract are down $27 on Friday afternoon in New York due to the fact of a very strong U.S monthly unemployment report pushing prices to a 3 week low as I’ve been recommending a long position in gold when prices broke above 1,245 and if you took that trade it’s time to exit today as prices are at a 3 week low as prices now are trading below their 20 but above their 100 day moving average telling you that the trend is mixed. Gold futures settled in the April contract at 1,279 while currently trading at 1,236 down about $43 for the trading week as the Dow Jones was up over 800 points this week as money is flowing out of the precious metals and into equities once again.

Silver futures are also down $.50 as the U.S dollar is up a whopping 100 points this Friday putting pressure on many of the commodities once again as extreme volatility is happening throughout the commodity and stock sectors sosit on the sidelines in this market as I’m disappointed that we gave back our profits and actually ended up losing slightly on this trade but that’s what happens sometimes when you trade a system as you must stick to the rules as this market fizzled out very quickly.

Gold prices have rallied from 1,130 which was around the contract low all the way above 1,300 which happened just a couple weeks ago and now has sold off about $70 as the trend is mixed and I do not like choppy markets as we probably will be sitting on the sidelines in the gold market for at least 4 to 6 weeks waiting for better chart structure to develop because the risk is too high as there is no trend as choppy markets are extremely difficult to trade.
Trend: Mixed
Chart structure: Poor

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Weekly Crude Oil and Gold Futures Recap with Mike Seery

It's time for our weekly commodity futures recap with our trading partner Mike Seery. He has been Senior Analyst for close to 15 years and has extensive knowledge of all of the commodity and option markets. And frequently appears on multiple business networks including Bloomberg news, Fox Business, CNBC Worldwide, CNN Business, and Bloomberg TV. He is also a guest on First Business, which is a national and internationally syndicated business show.

Crude oil futures in the March contract were up $3 a barrel having one of its best days in months trading at 47.50 a barrel and trading above its 20 day moving average for the 1st time in months while still below its 100 day moving average and looks like a possible bottom could be in place. If you’re still short this market I strongly suggest you place stop loss at the 10 day high which currently stands at 49.20 risking $1.80 from today’s price levels.

Crude oil futures settled last Friday at 45.59 currently trading at 47.50 up about $2 as prices actually hit new lows in yesterday’s trade as there are rumors about the new Saudi Arabian King stirring up some controversy possibly cutting production, however I truly believe that we just saw massive short covering but stick to the rules and keep your stop at the proper level and if you are stopped out move on and look at another market that is trending.

All markets come to an end that’s just the fact as I’ve seen many people reenter the market several times after having a successful run only to give back all their profits so if you are stopped out move on as there are many other markets to look at the current time as this was one of the best trends in recent memory but sometimes the best thing to do is to do nothing.
Trend: Lower
Chart Structure: Excellent

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Gold futures in the April contract are currently trading at 1,277 up around $21 an ounce with extreme volatility after selling off more than $30 in Thursday’s trade while settling last Friday at 1,293 going out this Friday afternoon around 1,276 finishing down $17 in a wild trading week. Gold futures topped out slightly above $1,300 as profit taking ensued as prices are still trading above their 20 and 100 day moving average and I’m still recommending a bullish position and if you took that original trade place your stop loss below the 10 day low which now yesterday’s low at 1,252 risking around $24 from today’s price levels or $2,400 risk per contract plus slippage and commission.

As I’ve talked about in many previous blogs I do think gold is now being used as a currency due to the fact that the Euro currency and many foreign currencies are absolutely falling out of bed as interest rates in many countries have gone negative so who wants to place money into a bank and lose money as investors now prefer gold which has no dividend but still it’s better than a negative return. Volatility in many of the commodity markets is very high at the current time especially the precious metals and I expect that to continue despite the fact that the U.S dollar hit an 11 year high continuing its secular bull market in my opinion as I do think 100 is on its way in the next several months as the United States economy is doing much better than any economy worldwide.

Gold futures have rallied from a contract low of 1,130 all the way up to about 1,310 in the last several months as money is finally starting to come out of the S&P 500 sending money flows back into the precious metals also sending high volatility which I think is here to stay especially with all of the worldwide problems
Trend: Higher
Chart Structure: Solid

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Mike Seerys Trading 101...."When Do You Enter A Trade"

What are your rules to initiate a trade on the long or short side of the commodity market? I have been asked this question many times throughout my career and my opinion is simply to buy on a 20-25 day high breakout in price on a closing basis only or sell on a 20-25 day low breakout to the downside also on a closing basis. Many times the price will break the 25 day high and sell off later in the day only to have your trade be negative very quickly.

I would rather buy the commodity at a higher price on the close because that gives me more confidence that the market has truly broken out. However there are more ways to skin a cat and this is not the only answer because some other trading systems might rely on different breakout rules that have also been reliable.

Remember always keeping a 1%-2% risk loss on any given trade therefore minimizing risks because the entry system I use always goes with the trend because I have learned over the course of time the trend is truly your friend in the long run. I also look for tight chart structure meaning a tight trading range over a period of time with relatively low volatility. I try to stay away from a crazy market that hit a 25 day high in 2 trading sessions versus the 25 high that actually took 25 days to create.

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Weekly Futures Recap with Mike Seery....Crude Oil, Gold, Coffee and More

Our trading partner Mike Seery is out with his calls for this week and he includes some of reliable rules to protect our profits.

Crude oil futures in the March contract settled last Friday at 49.00 while currently trading at 47.50 up about $.80 in early trade this Friday morning in New York as extreme volatility has occurred in recent days and if you’re still short this market I would now place my stop above yesterday’s high which currently stands at 51.73 risking around $4.25 or $4,250 per contract plus slippage and commission from today’s price levels. Crude oil futures are trading significantly below their 20 and 100 day moving average telling you that the trend still remains bearish as oversupply has decimated prices in recent weeks as who knows how far prices can actually go but stick to the rules as the 10 day high has tightened up considerably as prices have gone sideways in the last week or so with big trading ranges.

Crude oil prices have been dramatically cut in recent months due to the fact that Saudi Arabia refuses to cut supply coming out earlier this week reiterating that fact that they will not cut which keeps sending prices lower as they are trying to squeeze some American companies to get out of the business as the U.S is now a major producer which we weren’t just 5 years ago and that’s what’s changed the situation. The crude oil market I believe for the 1st time in history is not putting any price premium as in the past we always had a $10 or $20 price premium due to the fact of chaos in the Mideast but at this point problems in the Mideast are not affecting crude oil prices so this market still could remain bearish for some time to come especially with the U.S dollar hitting a 9 year high which is pessimistic all commodity prices.
Trend: Lower
Chart structure: Improving

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Gold futures in the February contract are slightly lower this Friday afternoon in New York after settling last Friday at 1,216 currently trading at 1,260 as I’m currently recommending a long futures position while placing your stop loss below the 10 day low which is around 1,209 risking around $50 or $1,650 on a mini contract plus slippage and commission. Gold futures are trading above their 20 and 100 day moving average hitting a 5 month high as the chart structure will also start to improve on a daily basis starting next week as the market has caught fire recently due to worldwide problems as money is pouring back into the precious metals and out of the S&P 500 in the beginning of 2015.

Yesterday the Swiss government announced they will let the Swiss Franc float rocketing that currency up while sending shock waves through the bond and currency markets and it certainly looks to me that problems are here to stay here for a while as Europe is a mess and this could push gold up to the next resistance level of 1,300 – 1,320 so take advantage of any price dip while maintaining the proper stop loss risking 2% of your account balance on any given trade as gold has finally turned into a short-term bull market once again.
Trend: Higher
Chart structure: Improving

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Coffee futures in the March contract have been extremely volatile in recent weeks due to the fact of concerns of lack of rain down in Brazil pushing prices up in over the last several weeks as I’m currently sitting on the sidelines in this market as coffee prices are trading above their 20 but still below their 100 day moving average telling you the trend is mixed. Coffee prices settled last Friday at 180 and are currently trading at 175.30 topping out around the 185 area as volatility should increase as the next 3 weeks are very critical to the coffee crop as traders are keeping a close eye on Brazilian weather.

As I’ve talked about in many previous blogs I think it’s very difficult historically speaking to have back to back droughts, but you never know as the weather is unpredictable, however this market has been choppy so wait for a better trend to develop and avoid any type of futures position at this time in my opinion. Many of the commodity markets are still heading lower because of the U.S dollar hitting a 9 year high and if adequate rain comes to key coffee growing regions over the next 3 weeks I would have to think that a retest of the 160 level would be in the cards so have patience and wait for a trend to develop.
Trend: Mixed
Chart structure: Poor

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Last Week's Volatility Could Be A Harbinger Of Things To Come

There's a war going on right now and I don't mean overseas, I mean right here in the markets. Last week was a perfect example as the intraday swings of the S&P500 clocked in at a staggering 6.5%. Market volatility often is a precursor of things to come, and the irony of all this action was that the market closed with a loss of -0.65% for the week.

The net weekly change for the DOW was -0.53% and there was an even smaller loss of -0.42% for the NASDAQ. All three indices formed an important Japanese candlestick pattern, a weekly doji candle. Why is this important? A doji candlestick often signals indecision in the market. When the doji forms in an uptrend or downtrend, this is normally seen as significant, as it is a signal that the buyers are losing conviction when formed in an uptrend and a signal that sellers are losing conviction if seen in a downtrend.

What To Watch For This Week

A lower weekly close would indicate to me that the buyers are beginning lose control of this aging bull market. Here is the "line in the sand" for each of the indices that I am watching. Once below this line, watch for heavy liquidation to come in across the board.

DOW: 17.262 S&P500: 1,992 NASDAQ: 4.090

Gold Is Now Officially On The Move

You might remember on January 7th, I wrote a post on gold (FOREX:XAUUSDO) and the key neckline level. The key neckline in gold was broken to the upside last Friday when gold closed out the week with a very positive 2.9% gain. I now have a confirmed upside target zone of $1,340, which equates to about $132-$134 on the ETF, GLD. To follow all of the entry and exit points for gold, check in daily with the World Cup Portfolio.

How High Can The Dollar Go?

The U.S. Dollar Index (NYBOT:DX) continues to push higher against most currencies with another weekly gain of 0.85% in the Dollar Index. The question on everyone's mind is, how high can the dollar go without a correction? To this observer, it appears that there are technical storm clouds gathering that could spell trouble for the dollar. Take a look at the RSI indicator and check out the negative divergence that is building on the weekly charts. If you are long the dollar, you might want to review and tighten your stops.

How Low Can Crude Oil Go

That's a question better asked to Saudi Arabia as they continues to keep their oil spigots open to the world. Here is my analysis, the trend is down and picking bottoms or tops in markets is not a high percentage game. Before crude oil (NYMEX:CL.H15.E) changes trend, it needs to begin to base out and find a floor. I will leave picking bottoms to others. Meanwhile, the trend is your friend.

Have a Different View?

I invite your comments, pro or con. As always, we appreciate your feedback.

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Every success with MarketClub,
Adam Hewison 
President, INO.comCo-Creator, MarketClub



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