SP 500 & Natural Gas Short Term Trend Charts

The broad markets along with metals have been on fire but in the last two weeks we have seen the sentiment become stronger. The extreme bullishness we are seeing has made it difficult for low risk swing traders to get in on the action simply because there have not been many sizable pullbacks. Instead the prices have been inching their way higher with very minor pullbacks before surging again.

The only way to take advantage of this type of price action in order to keep risk low is to take small positions when the market drops to the 5, 10 or 14 moving averages with a mental stop to exit the position if the market closes below the 14ma. Any position take up here should be small because the market is in runaway mode, meaning everyone is buying on the smallest of dips. The largest moves tend to be near the end of a trend which is why I feel this market could keep running for a few more weeks before taking a sharp plunge.

Natural Gas
If you have been reading my work over the past year you should know I don’t like natural gas. More people have lost money trying to play natural gas than any other investment vehicle out there which is why I don’t cover it very often. Many of you have been asking about Natural Gas (UNG) so here are my thoughts on it.

UNG has been in a down trend for several years and the only trades should be short positions at this time. The argument from some is that it’s undervalued and with winter just around the corner prices should go up. It’s a valid argument but price action is what makes traders money, not fundamentals.

The daily chart of Nat Gas below shows what I feel is about to happen. Remember, UNG is a terrible fund to be buying. Unless natural gas is moving strongly in your favor, this fund continually loses value simply because of the way its created.

Looking at the actual natural gas commodity chart is a different story… The trend is still down, but it does look as though it’s trying to form a base when looking at a 3 year weekly chart. That being said, there is still a very good chance we see gas test near the $3 level before starting a new trend so trying to pick a bottom here is not something I would be doing.

Trading Conclusion:
In short, the equities market is still in a strong uptrend. I’m not comfortable taking any large positions at this stage of the game but if we get a setup I will not hesitate to enter with a little money.

As for natural gas...trying to pick a bottom is deadly in a down trend as bounces tend to be short lived or flat. I will cover the dollar, gold, oil and the market internals in the member’s pre market morning video....

Just Click Here to get my daily ETF Trend Newsletter in your email inbox.

Happy Trading,
Chris Vermeulen at The Gold And Oil Guy.Com


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Matt Nesto: China Moves into Texas with Billions on Natural Gas

CNBC's Matt Nesto discusses the day's activity in the commodities markets, and looks ahead to where oil and gold are likely headed tomorrow.



Just click here for your FREE trend analysis of the natural gas ETF UNG

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Crude Oil Technical Outlook For Monday Morning

Crude oil was higher overnight as it extends the rally off August's low. Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

If October extends the rally off August's low, the 62% retracement level of the decline off August's high crossing at 78.58 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 74.43 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.

First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 77.50
Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of August's high crossing at 78.58

First support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 74.43
Second support is the reaction low crossing at 72.63

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Is it Time to Buy Natural Gas?

The current price in natural gas has a lot of traders taking positions. So is it time to buy natural gas? Let's take a look at our Smart Scan Chart Analysis. It confirms that a strong downtrend is in place and that the market remains negative longer term. Strong Downtrend with money management stops. A triangle indicates the presence of a very strong trend that is being driven by strong forces and insiders. Based on a pre-defined weighted trend formula for chart analysis, UNG scored -100 on a scale from -100 (strong downtrend) to +100 (strong uptrend).

-10......Last Hour Close Below 5 hour Moving Average
-15......New 3 Day Low on Thursday
-20......Last Price Below 20 Day Moving Average
-25......New 3 Week Low, Week Ending August 14th
-30......New 3 Month Low in May
-100.....Total Score

Here is a preview of our MarketClub Trade Triangle Chart Analysis and Smart Scan technology


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Is Natural Gas Prepared to Rally?....Here's Friday's Numbers and Analysis

Natural gas was slightly lower overnight as it extends this week's decline. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.597 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. If September renews the rally off July's low, June's high crossing at 5.282 is the next upside target.

First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 5.007
Second resistance is June's high crossing at 5.282

Natural gas pivot point for Friday morning is 4.660

First support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.597
Second support is Thursday's low crossing at 4.556

Smart Scan Chart Analysis for natural gas etf "UNG" indicates a counter trend rally is underway The current up trend could be changing and moving into a trading range Sidelines Mode.
Based on a pre-defined weighted trend formula for chart analysis, UNG scored +55 on a scale from -100 (strong downtrend) to +100 (strong uptrend):

+10.....Last Hour Close Above 5 Hour Moving Average
-15.....New 3 Day Low on Thursday
+20.....Last Price Above 20 Day Moving Average
+25.....New 3 Week High, Week Ending July 31st
-30.....New 3 Month Low in May
+55.....Total Score

Just click here for your FREE trend analysis of natural gas ETF UNG

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Crude Oil and Natural Gas Market Commentary For Wednesday Morning

Crude oil was lower due to profit taking overnight as it consolidates some of this month's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish hinting that a short term top might be in or is near.

Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 75.85 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted. If August extends the rally off May's low, the 62% retracement level of May's decline crossing at 82.67 is the next upside target.

First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 79.94
Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of May's decline crossing at 82.67

Wednesday's pivot point for crude oil is 78.03

First support is the overnight low crossing at 77.04
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 75.85

Just click here for your FREE trend analysis of crude oil ETF USO

Natural gas was slightly higher due to light short covering overnight as it consolidates some of this week's decline but remains below the 10 day moving average crossing at 4.915. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term.

Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.726 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. If July renews this month's rally, the 62% retracement level of the November-May decline crossing at 5.429 is the next upside target.

First resistance is last Wednesday's high crossing at 5.196
Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the November-May decline crossing at 5.429

Wednesday's pivot point for natural gas is 4.778

First support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.726
Second support is Tuesday's low crossing at 4.756

Just click here for your FREE trend analysis of natural gas ETF UNG


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Can we Expect a Natural Gas Clampdown?

Natural gas blasts in Pennsylvania, West Virginia and Texas are being closely scrutinized as the energy market is already facing greater regulations on offshore drilling. CNBC's Sharon Epperson takes a closer look.




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The World’s Biggest LNG Producer Holding Onto it’s Gas

On paper, it should be a perfect match. Qatar has huge amounts of gas to export and its neighbours are desperately prowling for reliable energy supplies to power their emerging economies. But Qatar’s recent decision to rule out significant gas exports to its allies in the Gulf Cooperation Council from a huge gas project inaugurated earlier this month illustrates just how acute the gas needs are among some of the globe’s biggest oil producers.

The new Qatari jewel is the second phase of Al-Khaleej Gas, which is now producing about 1.25 billion cubic feet a day, equivalent to about 17% of the country’s production. Combined with AKG-1, the two projects account for more than a quarter of the country’s overall output. (Most of the remainder is liquefied and exported around the world.)

Qatar’s deputy prime minister and energy minister, Abdullah al-Attiyah, recently said that all of the gas production from AKG-2 would be used to meet domestic demand, especially for electricity generation, and to continue feeding the relentless double-digit economic growth of the past few years.

Qatar is already the world’s biggest LNG producer. It’s also a growing player in gas to liquids. But over the next decades, the country’s domestic gas demand is expected to double. And that increased gas demand can be seen throughout the region as oil rich countries work to grow their economies, especially for petrochemical and industrial sectors, as well as domestic desalination and electricity demand.

Regional electricity demand is expected to increase annually by more than 6% and it is already competing with gas demand from petrochemical plants, with countries like Kuwait forced to prioritize power over industrial output.....Read the entire article.

Just click here for your FREE trend analysis of natural gas ETF UNG

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Crude Oil Daily Technical Outlook For Thursday Morning

Intraday bias in crude oil remains neutral as sideway trading continues between 71.23 and 75.72. Break of 71.23 minor support will indicate that rebound from 64.23 is finished and will flip intraday bias back to the downside for retesting this low first. On the upside, above 75.72 will bring another rise, but after all, upside should be limited by 61.8% retracement of 87.15 to 64.23 at 78.39 and bring fall resumption.

In the bigger picture, prior break of 68.59/69.50 support zone affirms our view that whole medium term rebound from 33.2 has completed at 87.15 already, just ahead of 50% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2 at 90.24. Further decline should be seen to 50% retracement of 33.2 to 87.15 at 60.18 at least. Also, as rebound from 33.2 is viewed as as a correction to the whole correction that started at 2008 at 147.27, we'd anticipate a break of 33.2 low in the longer term. On the upside, break of resistance at 78 level is needed to be indicate that fall from 87.15 is completed. Otherwise, we'll stay bearish.....Nymex Crude Oil Continuous Contract 4 Hours Chart.

Just click here for your FREE trend analysis of crude oil ETF USO

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What Hurricane Season Forecast Means for Natural Gas ETFs

The numbers are out: an active storm season is predicted for the Atlantic, and natural gas related ETFs are already gearing up and moving on the news. More storms than “normal”, about 16, are anticipated to hit the Atlantic coast of the United States this season. Of these, eight are expected to become hurricanes and about four of them are going to be intense, according to the Tropical Storm Risk.

Alex Morales and Brian K. Sullivan for Bloomerg BusinessWeek reports that the forecast joins a growing number of predictions that the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season, which starts June 1, will be among the most active on record. As the number of hurricanes rises, so do the chances of one striking the oil rich Gulf of Mexico or Florida’s crop areas.

The Gulf is home to about 30% of U.S. oil and 12 % of U.S. natural gas production, the U.S. Energy Department says. It also has seven of the 10 busiest U.S. ports, according to the Army Corps of Engineers. Meanwhile, BP is still trying to cap a leaking offshore oil well that has created a devastating slick that is washing up in Louisiana. Attempts to stop the oil will be hampered if and when a tropical storm or hurricane passes through the Gulf of Mexico.....Let's go to the charts!

Just click here for your FREE trend analysis of natural gas ETF UNG

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Crude Oil Weekly Technical Outlook

Crude oil's fall from 87.15 resumed after brief consolidations and dived to as low as 70.83 last week. Short term outlook will remain bearish as long as 78.51 resistance holds and we'd expect a test on key support zone of 68.59/69.50 next. On the upside, above 78.51 will indicate that a short term bottom is formed and bring stronger rebound, possibly for a retest on 87.15 high.

In the bigger picture, as noted before, 33.20 is viewed as a correction to the whole correction that started at 2008 at 147.27. Such rise might have completed at 87.15 already, ahead of 50% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2 at 90.24. Break of 69.50 support will break the series of higher low pattern from 33.2 and will be an important indication that the trend has reversed. In such case, we'll turn bearish on crude oil and expect the then down trend to target a new low below 33.2.

In the long term picture, there is no change in the view that fall from 147.27 is part of the correction to the five wave sequence from 98 low of 10.65. While the rebound from 33.2 was strong, there is no solid evidence that suggest fall 147.27 is completed and we're still preferring the case that rebound from 33.2 is merely a corrective rise only. Having said that, strong resistance should be seen between 76.77/90.24 fibo resistance zone and bring reversal for another low below 33.2 before completing the whole correction from 147.27.....Nymex Crude Oil Continuous Contract 4 Hours Chart.

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Commodities Market Commentary For Thursday Evening

Crude oil closed lower on Thursday as it resumed last week's decline. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If June extends today's decline, the 87% retracement level of the February-April rally crossing at 72.86 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 81.47 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 79.03. Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 81.47. First support is today's low crossing at 73.62. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the February-April rally crossing at 72.86.

Natural gas closed higher on Thursday as it extended this week's rally. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If June extends this week's rally, the 25% retracement level of the October-April decline crossing at 4.438 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10 day moving average crossing at 4.077 would temper the near term friendly outlook. First resistance is today's high crossing at 4.414. Second resistance is the 25% retracement level of the October-April decline crossing at 4.438. First support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.128. Second support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 4.077.

The U.S. Dollar closed higher on Thursday as it extends the rebound off Monday's low. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought, diverging but are turning bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If June extends this month's rally, weekly resistance crossing at 85.85 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 82.86 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted. First resistance is last Thursday's high crossing at 85.46. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 85.85. First support is Monday's low crossing at 83.07. Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 82.86.

Gold closed lower due to profit taking on Thursday as it consolidated some of the rally off February's low. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought, diverging but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If June extends this year's rally into uncharted territory, upside targets are hard to project. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 1176.40 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 1249.20. First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 1201.40. Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 1176.40.



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Weekend Gold, Silver, Natural Gas, Crude Oil & SP500 Report

Last week the market slowly recovered from the recent sell off in stocks and commodities. So far the market is unfolding as we expected and with any luck there will be a surge of low risk setups across the market in the near future. Take a look at the charts below.

GLD – Gold Chart
GLD/Gold is trading at a key pivot point. This week there will most likely be a sizable move either up or down. Past chart analysis is pointing to lower prices which would complete an ABC trace pattern and this makes for a larger and stronger rally once prices to turn back up. Silver is trading in much the same situation. Gold and silver tend to move together with silver having more volatility than gold.



UNG – Natural Gas Chart
Natural Gas continues to try and bottom and posted some solid gains last Thursday & Friday with rising volume. But we have seen this pattern form over and over again in the past year so I am not excited yet. Once the base is formed and the trend starts up we will find low risk entry points for this commodity. I would look for shorting opportunities but natural gas is so oversold I feel the risk is higher than I prefer.



USO – Crude Oil Chart
Looks like the trend line break down flushed out a lot of weak positions as seen in the volume surge. Oil momentum is still down but we are now starting to look for a buy signal.



SPY – SP500 Chart
Equities recovered nicely from the previous week’s sharp sell off. We saw volume rise with higher prices which is a strong sign of the overall strength of the market. But it is important to note that the market sentiment has reached an extreme level with 53% of traders now being bullish on the market and only 17% being bearish. This extreme level is the same level reached just before the January correction earlier this year.



Equities and Commodity Trading Conclusion:
If recent historical prices repeat again then we are looking for a small move higher on Monday and then a couple days of weakness for both stocks and commodities later in the week. The market is very close to generating several low risk trading signals which is very exciting.

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Precious Metals & Oil ETF Trend Trading

Last week was exciting with broad market and gold forming an intraday reversal pattern after a long overbought rally, then broke down though short term key support levels. While this move lower was tough on the pocket book for those who chased the market up the past few days and/or were not moving their protective stops up, this move is good for the health of the market.

This pullback is actually a good thing for us active traders who wait for low risk setups and don’t chase prices higher, but rather buy on the dips in a bull market when most of the risk has been flushed out already. Trading with low risk setups is not the most exciting type of trading because there are not a ton of setups but if one can be patient and wait for these plays it is a very profitable strategy in the long run.

Those traders who live and breathe the market focusing on trading intraday price action most likely made a small fortune last week with Fridays sell off in stocks and precious metals. You can see how some of us took advantage of this sharp pullback last week with my before and after videos.

Below are the charts showing what I am currently thinking is going to happen for gold, silver, gold stocks and oil. I will be tracking the market with intraday charts to help pin point a low risk entry point for a possible short or long position as the market unfolds this week.

GLD – Gold Trading ETF

The chart below is an updated chart which I have showed several times. It shows how gold corrected, bottomed and is now trending back up. This week I will be watched closely to be sure we take a position which has the highest probability of working in our favor if and when a low risk setup occurs.



SLV – Silver Trading ETF

Silver really took a hit on Friday. It is now trading near support but there is not much we can do until we see what happens on Monday. There could be a bounce or more down side, tough to call right now…. And it’s not something you want to be on the wrong side of.



Gold Stocks – Gold Stock Trading

Gold stocks did not drop as much as I thought they would which indicates the market is still very bullish on gold. There is still potential for more downside… so I am letting the market unfold before doing anything.



USO – Oil Trading Fund

You can see oil moved down sharply on Friday and is now testing both a price support level and trendline support. Although this looks like a perfect setup, the market is designed to shake people out of positions before continuing the move. So it is likely for oil to dip which would break both these support levels triggering stop orders. Then the price should drop to the key support level where support should be found for at least a bounce or a new bottom.



Precious Metal & Oil ETF Trading Conclusion:

In short, the market had a nice correction on Friday and the heavy selling volume indicates that we are getting close to a larger correction which should provide two swing trades, a shorting opportunity and a new buying opportunity in the coming days, weeks or months depending how long the market takes with this pullback/correction.

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Technical Setups on Gold, Silver, Oil & Natural Gas ETF’s

This week has been playing out as expected with prices grinding their way higher and lots of sharp intraday sell offs and rallies which is indicative of a market getting toppy.

Seems like the masses feel as though they are getting left behind which is why we are starting to see the panic buying in the market (new money buying at these lofty overbought prices).

Each time there is a new intraday or daily high on the major indexes there is a renewed bullishness created as breakout traders and novice traders buy into the market hoping for the next surge in price. It is these volume surges of new money entering the market which the big guys (smart money) are selling into. You can see it clear as day light on the intraday charts as new money gets sucked into the market new high and then 2 minutes later larger waves of selling hit the bids. I did explain and show a chart of how this looks to members of the FuturesTradingSignals.com today.

We have some very exciting times ahead and it’s just a matter of letting the market unfold over time as we take advantage of these carefully measured low risk setups.

On to the charts....

GLD ETF Trading – Gold Exchange Trading Fund

You can see how this chart has evolved from pattern to pattern as it bottomed over time.

Today we had a breakout and I expect to see a pullback which is normal when prices gap up and breakout of a pattern. An entry point would be considered on a pullback if the proper criteria are met.



SLV ETF Trading – Exchange Traded Fund

Silver has always been much more volatile than gold which is why the pullback early this year was so strong and why the recent rally has also covered so much ground. As you can see silver has broke out above resistance but is now looking overbought. A pullback in precious metals is expected, or a pause at least.



USO Crude Oil Fund

Oil has made a nice move higher the past week but I feel it will pullback also in the coming days for a breather. There are a couple sizable gaps to fill all the way back down to $40.50.



UNG Natural Gas Fund

This natural gas chart looks very interesting. In the chart I am comparing the 2009 low to today’s price action.

From looking at the chart, natural gas is way oversold and in dire need of a relief rally. As you can see the sharp rallies which occurred just before both the 2009 and the current possible bottom look identical. This type of price action is very common to see.

Let me explain: When an investment is this over sold, meaning it has sold lower for weeks if not months, then there is a large growing number of traders looking to pick a bottom. Once these traders see prices start to move higher they all jump in thinking its “The Bottom”. Some times it is but more times than not it’s just a suckers rally.

General rule is, if everyone can see it, then its most likely not going to happen.. this is also part of the reason the major indexes keep going up. It looks like a great short and a tone of traders are in cash waiting to take advantage of the drop. But the market will keep pushing higher until fear its not going to pullback. That’s when the new money buys back in fueling the GRIND higher.

Anyways, so after all the bottom pickers jump on the train and there are not any more buyers and the price tends to drift lower scaring these traders back out of the position. Eventually a new low is made and everyone is shaken out of the investment. The crazy part is that just as they get out, the price usually turns around and does exactly what they new was going to happen –Go Up.

Most traders have the direction correct, it’s just their timing is off. My general rule is when I see something I wait another bar, sometimes I keep saying that to my self after each new bar until I am confident in the predicted move or price I can get into the position at.



Mid-Week Trading Conclusion:

In short, the bull market continues to grind its way higher. Unfortunately we cannot do much until there is some type of correction because buying way up here after a 2 month rally is outside of my comfort zone.

I foresee a 3-5% correction starting any day now so I am keeping my gunpowder dry.

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Crude Oil Bulls Cling to Overbought Conditions, Here's Monday's Numbers

Crude oil opened higher this morning and traded higher overnight as it extends this month's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

If March extends this month's rally, the 75% retracement level of the January-February decline crossing at 80.72 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 75.29 would confirm that a short term top has been posted.

Monday's pivot point, our line in the sand is 79.50

First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 80.51
Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the January-February decline crossing at 80.72

First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 76.27
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 75.29

Just click here for your FREE trend analysis of crude oil ETF USO

Natural gas gapped down and was lower overnight as it extends last Friday's decline below the lower boundary of this winter's trading range crossing at 5.060. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term.

If March extends the overnight decline, the 87% retracement level of the December-January rally crossing at 4.734 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 5.324 would confirm that a short term low has been posted.

Natural gas pivot point for Monday is 5.073

First resistance is broken trading range support crossing at 5.060
Second resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 5.267

First support is the overnight low crossing at 4.911
Second support is the 87% retracement level of the December-January rally crossing at 4.734

Just click here for your FREE trend analysis of natural gas ETF UNG

The U.S. Dollar was lower due to profit taking overnight as it consolidates below the 50% retracement level of the 2009 decline crossing at 81.32. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging but are turning neutral to bearish hinting that a short term top might be in or is near.

Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 79.93 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted. If March extends this winter's rally, the 62% retracement level of the 2009 decline crossing at 82.92 is the next upside target.

First resistance is last Friday's high crossing at 81.43
Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2009 decline crossing at 82.92

First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 80.31
Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 79.93

Just click here for your FREE trend analysis of the U.S. Dollar ETF UUP



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Despite Sell Off in Oil, Bulls Maintain a Slight Near Term Advantage

Crude oil closed sharply lower on Thursday as a result of today's bearish jobs data, which leaves any economic recovery in question. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish despite today's decline signaling that a low might be near.

Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 77.42 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted. If March renews the decline off January's high, the 75% retracement level of the September-January rally crossing at 71.70 is the next downside target.

Crude oil's pivot point for Thursday evening is 74.19

First resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 77.42
Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of January's decline crossing at 78.43

First support is today's low crossing at 72.42
Second support is the 75% retracement level of the September-January rally crossing at 71.71

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Natural gas closed slightly higher on Thursday as it consolidates above the 10 day moving average crossing at 5.407. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 5.501 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. If March renews the decline off January's high, the 75% retracement level of the December-January rally crossing at 4.919 is the next downside target.

Thursday evenings pivot point for natural gas is 5.398

First resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 5.501
Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 5.804

First support is last Thursday's low crossing at 5.060
Second support is the 75% retracement level of the December-January rally crossing at 4.919

Just click here for your FREE trend analysis of natural gas ETF UNG

The U.S. Dollar closed higher on Thursday and above the 38% retracement level of the 2009-2010 decline crossing at 79.71. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways prices are possible near term.

If March extends this winter's rally, the 50% retracement level of the 2009-2010 decline crossing at 81.32 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 78.32 would confirm that a short term top has been posted.

First resistance is today's high crossing at 80.13
Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2009-2010 decline crossing at 81.32

First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 79.12
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 78.32

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Crude Oil Pivot, Support and Resistance Numbers For Thursday Morning

Crude oil was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off last week's low. Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

If March extends this week's rally, the 50% retracement level of January's decline crossing at 78.43 is the next upside targets. Closes below the 10 day moving average crossing at 74.96 would temper the near term friendly outlook.

Thursday's pivot point, our line in the sand is 77.18

First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 78.04
Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of January's decline crossing at 78.43

First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 74.96
Second support is last Friday's low crossing at 72.43

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Natural gas was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rebound off last week's low. Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling that additional strength is possible near term.

Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 5.500 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted. If March renews the decline off January's high, the 75% retracement level of the December-January rally crossing at 4.919 is the next downside target.

Natural gas pivot point for Thursday is 5.446

First resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 5.500
Second resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 5.558

First support is last Thursday's low crossing at 5.060
Second support is the 75% retracement level of the December-January rally crossing at 4.919

Just click here for your FREE trend analysis of natural gas ETF UNG

The U.S. Dollar was higher overnight and is trading above the 38% retracement level of the 2009 decline crossing at 79.71. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

If March extends this winter's rally, the 50% retracement level of the 2009 decline crossing at 81.32 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 78.31 would confirm that a short term top has been posted.

First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 79.89
Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2009 decline crossing at 81.32

First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 79.09
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 78.31

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Salazar Threatens To Dropkick The Natural Gas Revolution

It might just be tough talk, but Interior Secretary Ken Salazar has warned the energy industry that expansion could be much harder than under the Bush administration.

Americans should be amply rewarded when companies win exploration and production rights, but let's hope this doesn't mean that new exploration will be significantly restricted.

Especially when it comes to natural gas, which could provide the U.S. with an enormous source of relatively cheap energy.....Read the entire article.

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Natural Gas Advances to One Year High on Cold Weather Forecast

Natural gas futures rose to their highest settlement price in a year, exceeding $6 per million British thermal units as cold weather across the U.S. lifted demand for heating fuel. Temperatures in St. Louis, Memphis and Dallas will be below normal for the next week, according to a forecast from MDA Federal Inc.’s EarthSat Energy Weather. Cold weather in recent weeks cut a stockpile surplus to 14 percent for the week ended Dec. 25 from 16 percent at the start of the month. “Storage is going from materially oversupplied to more manageable inventory levels,” said Tom Orr, director of research at Weeden & Co., a brokerage in Greenwich, Connecticut. “It looks like it’s going to continue to be pretty cold here.”

Natural gas for February delivery advanced 37.2 cents, or 6.6 percent, to settle at $6.009 per million Btu at 2:50 p.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The price was the highest since Jan. 5, 2009. The Energy Department may say tomorrow that U.S. stockpiles dropped 155 billion cubic feet last week, based on the median of 21 analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg. The “seasonal norm” withdrawal is 83 billion, Scott Speaker, JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s natural gas strategist in New York, said in a note to clients yesterday. “We see a net withdrawal of 144 billion cubic feet, a draw that would significantly tighten the current year over year surplus and the surplus compared to the past five year average,” he said.....Read the entire article.

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