Mike Seerys Weekly Recap of the Crude Oil, Gold, Coffee, Sugar and Markets

Over the past few weeks, the likelihood of a December rate hike by the Federal Reserve Bank has grown substantially. Both economic data and hints from a number of Federal Reserve policymakers now point towards a December rate hike and now on Wall Street 70% of investors polled believe a rate hike in December is possible. 

So let us take a look at the data and what Fed officials are saying that is making investors believe a hike is coming. Our trading partner Mike Seery  is back to give our us a recap of this weeks trading and help us put together a plan for the upcoming week.

Crude oil futures in the January contract are up 90 cents this Friday afternoon in New York settling at 42.00 last Friday while currently trading at 42.60 as this market has been on the defensive for quite some time due to the fact of massive worldwide supplies as I’ve been sitting on the sidelines at the current time. Oil prices are trading below their 20 and 100 day moving average hitting a double top at the 52 dollar level with the next major level of support at the contract low which was hit in late August around 40.00 as we could be entering a short position next week as the chart structure is starting to improve dramatically on a daily basis. Crude oil has stabilized in recent days due to the fact of terrorism and especially the possibility of that spreading to the Middle East, however worldwide supplies are massive and that is the real problem coupled with the fact of a strong U.S dollar which is higher once again today as the Federal Reserve basically will raise interest rates in the month of December which is also another negative, but as a trader I look for risk/reward to be in your favor and that could be in next week’s trade to the short side as I’m not convinced that prices are headed lower. In my opinion think if the oil market moves higher you’re going to need OPEC to cut production and I’m not sure if they are willing to do that at the current time, but if that does happen that would certainly put the short term bottom into this market.
Trend: Lower
Chart Structure: Improving

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Gold futures in the December contract settled in New York last Friday at 1,081 an ounce while currently trading at 1,081 unchanged for the trading week still trading below its 20 and 100 day moving average telling you that the short term trend is to the downside, however I’m sitting on the sidelines in this market as prices have dropped $100 in the last three weeks as the chart structure is awful at the current time. Earlier in the week prices traded at a new contract low of 1,062 and now has rallied for the 2nd straight day as I still see no reason to own gold at current time as money flows are coming out of the precious metals once again and into the equity markets as I think that trend will continue for the rest of 2015. Gold prices have stabilized here in recent days due to the fact of all the terrorism that is occurring throughout the world and it looks to me that that probably could continue here in the short term, but the easy money to the downside has been made in gold as I think you will start to see a consolidation of the recent downdraft in prices so avoid this market at the current time and look at other markets that are beginning to trend with less risk.
Trend: Lower
Chart Structure: Poor

Coffee futures in the March contract settled in New York last Friday at 115.80 a pound while currently trading at 122.75 up nearly 700 points for the trading week having one of the strongest weeks in quite some time bottoming out at the 115 level. As I’ve written about in previous blogs as I think coffee is in the process of bottoming, however at the current time I’m sitting on the sidelines waiting for a trend to develop as prices are trading above their 20 day but still below their 100 day moving average telling you that the trend currently is mixed. The contract low was hit around the 115 level as prices are getting very cheap in my opinion as we are starting to enter the volatile season as I think we are squeezing blood out of a turnip at these levels, but I will be patient and wait for better chart structure to develop therefore lowering monetary risk as I think over the long haul prices are headed higher. The next major resistance is at 125 which is just an eyelash away as the soft commodity markets except for cotton have rallied over the last several weeks as traders remember in early 2014 a drought hit key coffee growing regions in the country of Brazil sending prices sharply higher in just a matter of weeks.
Trend: Mixed
Chart Structure: Poor

Sugar futures in the March contract settled last Friday in New York at 15.04 a pound while currently trading at 15.04 unchanged for the trading week still in a very volatile trade as prices are swinging up and down on a daily basis as the chart still looks bullish in my opinion, however I am sitting on the sidelines as the chart structure is poor at the current time. Sugar prices are actually trading above their 20 and 100 day moving average which is one of the only few commodities you can say that about as the trend still remains higher with major resistance at 15.50 as strong demand continues to prop up prices here in the short term coupled with the fact of lower production numbers coming out of Brazil. Sugar prices have rallied around 35% over the last three months as this was a very bearish trend for the several years as prices used to trade in the 30’s in 2011 as that’s how far prices have come down due to over production in Brazil, but that scenario has changed going into 2016 as weather is now the main focus to drive prices higher.
Trend: Higher - Mixed
Chart Structure: Poor

Mike Seerys Trading Theory
What Does Risk Management Mean To You? I generally tell people that the reason people lose money in commodities is not due to the fact that they are bad at predicting where prices are headed, however they are bad when it comes to losing trades and refusing to take a loss which results for heavy monetary losses that are difficult to come back from. For example if a customer has $100,000 account in my opinion on any given trade he or she should risk 2% – 3% of the account value meaning if you are wrong the worst case scenario is still a $97,000 remaining balance, however what I always see is traders risking ridiculous amounts of money and instead of the 3% stop loss will risk 20% to 30% on any given trade or even higher therefore if you are wrong on two or three trades that $100,000 dollar account could dwindle down to nothing very quickly and I’ve seen it many times throughout my career. What many traders forget to realize is they might have 4 or 5 commodity positions on and if you have too many contracts on all at the same time and all of those trades go against you which is very possible the losses can add up to be staggering so what I am suggesting to you is if you have $100,000 account risk between $2,000 – $3,000 per trade so if you lose on five straight trades the worst case scenario is that your down $15,000 and still have an $85,000 balance which is very possible to still come back from and your still in the game.

Mike has been a senior analyst for close to 15 years and has extensive knowledge of all of the commodity and option markets. Get more of Mike's calls on this Weeks Commodity Markets


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Mike Seerys Weekly Recap of the Crude Oil, Coffee, Sugar and Corn Markets

Last week U.S. retail sales were reported and rose less than expected in October. One of the big surprises was the automobile sector and the decline in the purchases of new cars. All of this weighed on the markets, pushing back the bulls once again. So our trading partner Mike Seery  is back to give our us a recap of this weeks trading and help us put together a plan for the upcoming week.

Crude oil futures in the December contract are trading below their 20 and 100 day moving average telling you that the short term trend is to the downside hitting a 10 week low as prices settled last Friday in New York at 44.90 while currently trading at 40.50 a barrel down around $4 for the trading week continuing its longer term bearish trend. At the current time I’m sitting on the sidelines as the chart structure is very poor which means that the 10 day high is too far away risking too much money in my opinion, however keep a close eye on this market as the chart structure will start to improve in next week's trade therefore lowering monetary risk. In my opinion it looks to me that prices are going to test the August 24th low of 39.22 as high inventories continue to pressure prices coupled with the fact of a strong U.S dollar hampering many commodity markets in 2015 and unless OPEC cuts production prices will probably remain on the defensive for some time to come. The weather in much of the United States has been above normal which is putting pressure on heating oil futures because of the lack of demand and therefore putting pressure on crude oil, but we are starting to enter the winter months as that could change very quickly but at the present time the 7/10 day weather forecast remains warm.
Trend: Lower
Chart Structure: Poor

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Coffee futures in the March contract are trading below their 20 and 100 day moving average settling in New York last Friday at 121.15 while currently trading at 118.80 down over 200 points for the trading week continuing its short term bearish trend. Prices look to retest the contract low which was hit on September 24th at 117.80 as coffee is acting nonvolatile at the current time as historically speaking coffee is one of the most volatile commodities in the world, but there is very little fresh fundamental news to dictate short term price action. At the current time I'm sitting on the sidelines waiting for better chart structure to develop, however I do think prices are limited to the downside as I think you're starting to squeeze blood out of a turnip as we start to enter the volatile winter season as in 2014 a drought hit the country of Brazil sending prices sharply higher so keep a close eye on this market for a possible bullish pattern to develop in the coming weeks. Coffee prices have been extremely choppy over the last six months as I've had a couple recommendations that fizzled out but as a trader you can't give up because the trend always comes back it's just a matter of time and patience.
Trend: Lower
Chart Structure: Solid

Sugar futures in the March contract settled last Friday in New York at 14.46 a pound while currently trading at 15.08 up about 60 points for the trading week as I'm currently sitting on the sidelines waiting for another trend to develop and at the current time I’m advising clients to avoid this market. Sugar prices are highly volatile with many sharply higher and sharply lower trading sessions with major resistance at the peak high around 15.50 and support around the three week low at 14.00 which was hit in Monday's trade as production numbers out of Brazil continue to swing prices on a daily basis. Sugar prices are still trading above their 20 and 100 day moving average telling you that the short term trend is still higher as this has been one of the few commodities that continue to have a bullish trend due to less production in Brazil and key growing regions throughout the world coupled with the fact of very strong demand pushing prices up around 35% from lows hit just 3 months ago. If you’re looking to pick a top I would sell a futures contract at today’s price while placing your stop at 15.55 risking around 45 points or $500 per contract plus slippage and commission, but I am currently involved in other markets with better risk/reward parameters.
Trend: Higher
Chart Structure: Poor

Corn futures in the December contract settled last Friday in Chicago at 3.73 a bushel while currently trading at 3.60 down around $.13 for the trading week as I've been recommending a short position from the 3.79 level and if you took that trade continue to place your stop loss above the 10 day high which currently stands at 3.84, however the chart structure will start to improve on a daily basis therefore lowering monetary risk next week. Prices are trading below their 20 and 100 day moving average telling you that the trend is to the downside as prices reacted to the USDA crop report which raised carryover and production numbers sending prices to a new contract low so continue to play this to the downside in my opinion as lower prices are ahead. Many of the commodity markets continue to move lower especially crude oil which is also putting pressure on corn prices as I think the next major level of support is 3.50 as volatility is relatively low, but if you have missed this trade move on and look at other markets that are beginning to trend. At the current time I’m recommending many short positions including soybeans and corn as I think oversupply issues will continue to keep a lid on prices for the rest of 2015.
Trend: Lower
Chart Structure: Improving

What does Mike mean when he talks about chart structure and why does he think it’s so important when deciding to enter or exit a trade?

Mike tells us "I define chart structure as a slow grinding up or down trend with low volatility and no chart gaps. Many of the great trends that develop have very good chart structure with many low percentage daily moves over a course of at least 4 weeks thus allowing you to enter a market allowing you to place a stop loss relatively close due to small moves thus reducing risk. Charts that have violent up and down swings are not considered to have solid chart structure as I like to place my stops at 10 day highs or 10 day lows and if the charts have a tight pattern that will allow the trader to minimize risk which is what trading is all about and if the chart has big swings your stop will be further away allowing the possibility of larger monetary loss."

Mike has been a senior analyst for close to 15 years and has extensive knowledge of all of the commodity and option markets. Get more of Mike's calls on this Weeks Commodity Markets


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Mike Seerys Weekly Recap of the Natural Gas, Gold, Silver, Copper and Corn Markets

A positive monthly unemployment number which added 271,000 jobs sent many commodities lower on Friday all due to a very strong U.S dollar. So we have asked our trading partner Mike Seery back to give our us a recap of this weeks trading and help us put together a plan for the upcoming week.

Natural gas futures in the December contract settled last Friday at 2.32 while currently trading at 2.38 as I’ve been recommending a short position over the last several months and if you took that trade continue to place your stop loss above the 10 day high which has been lowered to 2.42 as the trend may have bottomed out in the short term. If you take a look at the daily chart there is a price gap at 2.46 as it looks to me that prices want to fill that gap as weather in the Midwest has put pressure on prices in the short term as we are way above normal average temperatures therefore lowering demand and therefore putting pressure on prices. Natural gas prices are still trading below their 20 and 100 day moving average telling you that the short term trend is lower as many of the commodity markets were lower once again today due to a strong U.S dollar but natural gas is a domestic product which is not influenced by the dollar but by weather conditions as we are starting to enter the winter months, but continue to place your stop at the proper level and if we are stopped out look at other markets that are beginning to trend as this trade worked very well.
Trend: Lower
Chart Structure: Outstanding

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Gold futures in the December contract settled last Friday in New York at 1,141 while currently trading at 1,087 an ounce down $17 this Friday afternoon all due to a very strong U.S dollar which is up over 100 points today on a positive monthly unemployment number which added 271,000 jobs sending many commodities lower. Gold prices are trading below their 20 and 100 day moving average telling you that the short-term trend is to the downside as prices hit a three week low; however the chart structure is terrible as prices have collapsed over the last couple weeks as I’m sitting on the sidelines waiting for the risk/reward to improve. The next major level of support is at 1,080 which is the contract low as you have to think that gold prices are headed lower as I’m currently bullish the stock market and I do believe that will continue to move higher taking money out of the precious metals therefore continuing to put pressure on prices as I see no reason to own gold. The unemployment rate is 5% as investors are now thinking that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates which are another negative influence towards gold and commodity prices.
Trend: Lower
Chart Structure: Poor

Silver futures are trading below their 20 and 100 day moving average settling last Friday at 15.56 while currently trading at 14.77 an ounce hitting a 4 week low as the trend in silver is to the downside, however it also has poor chart structure so I’m sitting on the sidelines at the current time. The next level of support in silver is 14/14.50 as I do think prices are headed lower due to a strong U.S dollar which should continue to move higher for the rest of 2015 in my opinion as the commodity markets look to head lower. At the current time I’m recommending a short position in copper as I think silver and gold will continue to put pressure on copper as I see no reason to own the precious metals. Silver prices have been very choppy over the last several months with many false breakouts so be patient as the risk/reward is not in your favor presently, but I’m definitely not recommending any type of bullish position as the path of least resistance is to the downside.
Trend: Lower
Chart Structure: Poor

Copper futures in the December contract settled last Friday in New York at 231.75 a pound while currently trading at 224.40 down about 700 points for the trading week as I have been recommending a short position from around 231 and if you took that trade continue to place your stop loss above the 10 day high which currently stands at 2.38 as the chart structure will tighten up in next week’s trade. Copper futures are trading below their 20 and 100 day moving average telling you that the short-term trend is to the downside hitting a five week low with the next major level of resistance at 2.20/2.22 and if that level is broken I think prices could test 2.00 in the next several weeks as the U.S dollar continues to put pressure on many commodity prices including copper. The precious metals continued their bearish momentum with gold and silver sharply lower this week keeping a lid on copper prices. I think this trend is just beginning so take advantage of any price rally as I think lower prices are ahead as we could possibly be adding to this position as the risk/reward is in your favor in my opinion as copper is a very large contract which can experience huge volatility with high risk which is what we look for as a trader as long as you risk 2% of your account balance on any given trade. Copper has traded lower for the last 3 trading sessions as volatility is relatively high as the long term trend line is still intact so continue to play this to the downside.
Trend: Lower
Chart Structure: Solid

Corn futures in the December contract settled last Friday in Chicago at 3.82 a bushel while currently trading at 3.72 down $.10 for the trading week as I’ve been recommending a short position from around 3.79 if you took the original trade continue to place your stop loss above the 10 day high which stands at 3.88 as the chart structure will start to improve in next week’s trade. Corn prices are trading below their 20 and 100 day moving average telling you that the trend is to the downside with the next major level of support at the contract low of 3.60 which could be tested next week off of the USDA crop report which should send high volatility back into this market. Volatility in corn at the current time is relatively low as I expect that to continue until next spring as there is very little fundamental news to put high volatility into the market, but I do think the trend will continue to the downside as expectations are of higher production numbers in the upcoming report and extremely high carryover numbers which should keep a lid on prices. Corn prices hit an 8 week low as the one reason I took this trade was the fact of excellent chart structure at the time of the recommendation with the original risk of 8 cents or $400 as I still see lower prices ahead due to a very strong U.S dollar which is up sharply this Friday afternoon.
Trend: Lower
Chart Structure: Solid

What does Mike mean when he talks about chart structure and why does he think it’s so important when deciding to enter or exit a trade?

Mike tells us "I define chart structure as a slow grinding up or down trend with low volatility and no chart gaps. Many of the great trends that develop have very good chart structure with many low percentage daily moves over a course of at least 4 weeks thus allowing you to enter a market allowing you to place a stop loss relatively close due to small moves thus reducing risk. Charts that have violent up and down swings are not considered to have solid chart structure as I like to place my stops at 10 day highs or 10 day lows and if the charts have a tight pattern that will allow the trader to minimize risk which is what trading is all about and if the chart has big swings your stop will be further away allowing the possibility of larger monetary loss."

Mike has been a senior analyst for close to 15 years and has extensive knowledge of all of the commodity and option markets. Get more of Mike's calls on this Weeks Commodity Markets


Make sure you get our latest FREE eBook "Understanding Options"....Just Click Here!

Weekly Crude Oil, Gold, SP 500, Coffee and Sugar Markets Recap with Mike Seery

Fridays can be very telling, and while Fridays close in crude oil was not a clean break through support commodity traders need to be on their toes for Mondays open. So there is no better time to have our trading partner Mike Seery back to give our readers a recap of last weeks commodity futures market and help us put together a plan for the upcoming week. Mike has been a senior analyst for close to 15 years and has extensive knowledge of all of the commodity and option markets.

Crude oil futures in the September contract settled last Friday in New York at 47.12 a barrel while currently trading at 44.10 trading lower for the 3rd consecutive trading session as I’ve been recommending a short position over the last 8 weeks and if you took that trade place your stop loss above the 10 day high which currently stands at 49.52 as the trend seems to be getting stronger to the downside. Crude oil futures are trading far below their 20 and 100 day moving average telling you that the trend is sharply lower as the chart structure will not improve until later next week as it certainly looks to me that oil prices will retest $40 a barrel as a strong U.S dollar continues to put pressure on oil and many of the commodity markets.

Remember as a trader you must trade with the path of least resistance and the oil market is clearly to the downside as picking bottoms and picking tops is extremely difficult to do successfully over the course of time. Traders reacted to Friday mornings monthly unemployment report showing around 215,000 new jobs created as it certainly looks like an interest rate hike could be eminent in the month of September which is also very bearish the commodity markets in general so continue to play this to the downside, however if you did not take the original trade you have missed the boat as I don’t like to chase markets so look at other markets that are beginning to trend.
Trend: Lower
Chart Structure: Solid

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Gold futures in the December contract settled last Friday in New York at 1,095 an ounce currently trading at 1,095 as this market has been incredibly nonvolatile at the current time as prices have gone nowhere over the last three weeks as I’ve been recommending a short position from 1,170 & if you took that trade place your stop loss above the 10 day high which currently stands at 1,103 risking around $8 dollars or $250 per mini contract plus slippage and commission as the chart structure is outstanding.

I have been trading the commodity markets for a longtime and I can’t remember gold trading in such a nonvolatile manner as prices continually go nowhere which is putting me to sleep as I’m getting frustrated in this market because as a trader you want to look at markets that are moving but the risk/reward is in your favor so I will just keep the proper stop loss and if you are stopped out move on and look at other markets.

Gold futures are still trading below their 20 and 100 day moving average telling you that the trend is to the downside as a strong U.S dollar continues to keep a lid on the precious metal prices and I think that’s going to continue in 2015, however the stock market has hit a six month low and I think that’s starting to support prices as gold has had a very difficult time breaking 1,080 which is been hit on a half dozen occasions only to rally as prices remain in a very tight consolidation but continue to remain short.
Trend: Lower
Chart Structure: Outstanding

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The S&P 500 reacted negatively toward the monthly unemployment report and is trading lower for the 2nd consecutive trading session down another 14 points this afternoon in Chicago trading at 2064 in the September contract as I recommended a short position in Thursday trade while placing your stop loss above the 10 day high at 2110 now risking 44 points or $ 2,200 per mini contract plus slippage and commission as the chart structure is very tight at the current time.

If you have been following my previous blogs you understand I like to sell breakouts as this has not broken out to the downside, however the Dow Jones industrial has hit a six month low and has broken out so I chose the S&P 500 so take a shot as the commodity and stock markets around the world look vulnerable to another leg down.

If you take this trade my recommendation is to place your stop above the 10 day high, however you can also place the stop above the all time high which is 2127 which might be a better place if your account balance can withstand that loss in case we are wrong but it seems hard to believe with commodity prices plunging on a daily basis that the stock market can retain these lofty levels in my opinion as I've been recommending short positions in many of the commodity markets for several months as I think there are problems developing that we don't know just yet.
Trend: Lower
Chart Structure: Solid

You Might Want to Know What's Behind our "Big Trade"

Coffee futures in the September contract settled last Friday at 125.25 while currently trading at 128 a pound up around 300 points for the trading week now trading above its 20 day but still below its 100 day moving average as I’ve been recommending a short position getting stopped out breaking even on this recommendation as this trade fizzled out at the very end.

I’m currently recommending to sit on the sidelines in the coffee market at this time as I’m a little disappointed getting stopped out, however we must move on and look at other markets that are beginning to trend as I’m still recommending a short position in sugar, cocoa, and cotton at the current time but keep a close eye on coffee as the trend can still remain bearish in the next couple of days as the chart structure still remains extremely tight so I’m not giving up on this trade but when prices hit a 10 day high it’s time to move on.

Many of the commodity markets were higher this afternoon as the U.S dollar reversed earlier gains but we are not seeing any real strength in the coffee market at the current time as the long term down trend line is still intact but I’m a short term trader which means I look for a four week high and four week lows as an entry point as you must be nimble and flexible and not always have a biased opinion as prices can change on a dime.
Trend: Mixed
Chart Structure: Solid

Sugar futures in the October contract settled in New York last Friday at 11.14 while currently trading at 10.65 a pound as I’ve been recommending a short position from around 11.50 and if you took that trade continue to place your stop loss above the 10 day high which now stands at 11.64 as the chart structure will start to improve later next week. Sugar futures are trading far below their 20 and 100 day moving average as the trend seems to be getting stronger on a weekly basis trading lower for the 2nd consecutive trading session as I think there is a possibility that sugar will crack 10.00 in next week’s trade as crude oil prices continue to plunge therefore pressuring sugar so continue to play this to the downside in my opinion as the risk/reward is still in your favor.

Many of the commodity markets were higher today including several soft commodities as the U.S dollar reversed earlier gains as many markets were probably oversold but to predict day to day action is extremely difficult as I would rather follow the path of least resistance which is to the downside as I’m strictly a trend follower so continue to take advantage of any rallies as I still think lower prices are ahead as supply issues continue to keep a lid on prices and unless lower production happens in 2016 I think prices grind much lower over the course of time.
Trend: Lower
Chart Structure: Solid

Get more of Mike's calls on this Weeks Commodity Markets

Weekly Crude Oil, Gold, Silver, Coffee and Sugar Markets Recap with Mike Seery

There's been plenty of traders calling for a bottom in most commodities this week....but not so fast. So there is no better time to have our trading partner Mike Seery back to give our readers a recap of last weeks commodity futures market and help us put together a plan for the upcoming week. Mike has been a senior analyst for close to 15 years and has extensive knowledge of all of the commodity and option markets.

Crude oil futures in the September contract settled last Friday in New York at 48.14 a barrel while currently trading at 47.90 down slightly for the trading week still trading below its 20 and 100 day moving average as I’ve been recommending a short position over the last several months and if you took that trade place your stop above the 10 day high which now stands at 51.41 as that will improve on a daily basis starting next week. Crude oil futures are trading below their 20 and 100 day moving average telling you that the trend is to the downside as there is very little bullish fundamental news to push prices higher in the short term and I think that will continue for quite some time as the U.S dollar still remains relatively strong despite today’s steep decline.

Many of the commodity markets continue to go lower as deflation is a worldwide problem and has been over the last several years especially when the United States stopped there quantitative easing program which propped up all asset prices including most commodities. With the possibility of China slowing down the perception is that demand will also slow down so continue to place the proper stop loss which is just a little over $3 away as this trade as fallen out of bed over the last two months, but if you have missed this recommendation sit on the sidelines and look for another market that’s beginning to trend as you have missed the boat.
Trend: Lower
Chart Structure: Excellent

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Gold futures in the December contract settled last Friday at 1,086 while currently trading at 1,194 experiencing a wild trading session this Friday afternoon with the U.S dollar trading sharply lower as I’ve been recommending a short position in the August contract as we rolled over into the December contract today so continue to place your stop loss above the 10 day high which stands at 1,110 an ounce. Gold futures have traded sideways for the last two weeks and looks to be forming some type of short term bottom, but I will stick to my trading rules and keep the proper stop loss as I still see no reason to own gold but if we are stopped out move on and look at other markets that are beginning to trend as we have been short from around the 1,170 level as prices have stalled out in recent weeks. The problem with the precious metals and gold in particular is the fact that all of the interest lies in the S&P 500 which is still hovering around all time highs as money flows continue to come out of the precious metals and into the equity markets as I think that trend is to continue throughout 2015 and at this point I would rather own stocks than own gold so continue to play this to the downside in my opinion while risking 2% of your account balance on any given trade.
Trend: Lower
Chart Structure: Outstanding

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Silver futures in the September contract settled last Friday at 14.49 an ounce while currently trading at 14.80 up about $.30 for the trading week still trading below their 20 & 100 day moving average as I’ve been short from 15.80 and if you took that trade place your stop loss at 14.99 which is the 10 day high as the chart structure is outstanding at the current time. Silver prices continue to bounce off of 14.50 as it looks to be forming a bottoming pattern but I will stick to my rules as we are just an eyelash away from getting stopped out as silver had a 40 cent trading range this Friday afternoon as the U.S dollar is down 100 points, however the trend is still lower and if we are stopped out move on and let’s find another market that’s beginning to trend as volatility is relatively low at the current time.

The Federal Reserve continues to want the inflation rate to hit 2% so they can start to raise interest rates but at this point there is very little worldwide demand for any commodity especially due to the fact that China looks to be falling off a cliff as they are the largest importer of commodities in the world and if you have not sold silver at this time the risk/reward is highly in your favor risking $.20 or $200 per mini contract plus slippage and commission as we will see what Monday’s trade brings.
Trend: Lower
Chart Structure: Outstanding

You Might Want to Know What's Behind our "Big Trade"

Coffee futures settled higher for the 3rd consecutive trading session settling last Friday at 122.25 a pound while currently trading at 125.30 still trading below its 20 and 100 day moving average as I’ve been recommending a short position from the 128 level and if you took that trade place your stop loss above the 10 day high which currently stands at 128.20 as the chart structure is outstanding at the current time. The next major level of support is the contract low around 120 but I still think we can retest the January 2014 lows of 105 and if you did not take the original trade I would still sell at today’s price as the risk is around 300 points or 1,200 risk per contract plus slippage and commission. I am currently recommending short positions in cocoa, sugar, coffee as volatility is relatively low but as a trend follower I will stick to my guns on this and continue to place the proper stop loss while maintaining the proper risk management strategy of 2% of your account balance on any given trade.
Trend: Lower
Chart Structure: Outstanding

Sugar futures in the October contract settled last Friday in New York at 11.24 a pound while currently trading at 11.16 basically unchanged for the trading week as I’ve been recommending a short position from around 11.50 and if you took that recommendation the chart structure is outstanding at the current time so place your stop above the 10 day high at 11.72 risking around 50 points or $550 per contract plus slippage and commission. Sugar futures are trading far below their 20 and over 150 points below their 100 day moving average telling you that the trend is getting stronger to the downside as oversupply and over production should continue to put pressure on prices despite the fact that the U.S dollar is down over 100 points but that’s still not supporting sugar prices at this time. The reason I decided to take this trade was the fact of extremely tight chart structure which lowers monetary risk as that met my criteria to enter into a trade as I still think that there’s a possibility that prices could break 10.00 a pound in the next several weeks so continue to play this to the downside as the risk/reward is highly in your favor in my opinion.
Trend: Lower
Chart Structure: Excellent

Get more of Mike's calls on this Weeks Commodity Markets

Weekly Crude Oil, Gold, Silver, Coffee and Sugar Markets Recap with Mike Seery

It's been a terrible week for the crude oil bulls. And our trading partner Mike Seery is back this week to give our readers a weekly recap of crude oil as well as the futures market. Mike has been a senior analyst for close to 15 years and has extensive knowledge of all of the commodity and option markets.

Crude oil futures in the September contract are trading far below their 20 and 100 day moving average telling you that the trend is to the downside after settling in New York last Friday at 51.21 currently trading at 48.45 down nearly $3 for the trading week as I’ve been recommending a short position for the last two months and if you took that trade place your stop loss above the 10 day high which currently stands at 54.00 a barrel.

The trend in the commodity markets is weak as everything seems to be melting down and remember as a commodity trader in my opinion you must trade with the trend so continue to play this to the downside. Crude oil has huge worldwide supplies coupled with a strong U.S dollar as I think prices will re-test the $45 level so continue to place the proper stop loss trying to get as much as 75% of the trend as picking tops and bottoms is impossible over the long haul in my opinion.

The stop loss will not improve for another week so you’re going to have to be patient as volatility currently is high and should remain so for weeks to come as I still believe prices are too expensive.
Trend: Lower
Chart Structure: Improving

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Gold futures in the August contract settled last Friday in New York at 1,132 an ounce while currently trading at 1,082 down about $50 for the trading week continuing its remarkable bearish trend as I’ve been recommending a short position when prices broke 1,170 and if you took that trade continue to place your stop loss above the 10 day high which currently stands at 1,160 as the chart structure will start to improve on a daily basis starting next week.

Gold prices are trading far below its 20 and 100 day moving average telling you that the short-term trend is to the downside as the next level of support is around 1,050 as I think that could be tested in next week’s trade as there’s no reason to own gold and if you’ve been reading any of my previous blogs you understand how bearish I am of the entire commodity sector as a whole. Silver prices are also hitting a six year low as I’m also recommending a short position in that market as all of the interest lies in the S&P 500 which is slightly lower this afternoon as money flows continue to come out of the precious metals and into the stock market and I don’t see that trend ending any time soon.

The U.S dollar is near a six week which continues to keep a lid on commodity prices coupled with the fact of higher U.S interest rates possibly coming later in the year as both act as negative influences on commodities historically speaking.
Trend: Lower
Chart Structure: Poor

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Silver futures in the September contract settled last Friday at 14.83 an ounce while currently trading at 14.33 down $.50 for the trading week as I’ve been recommending a short position when prices broke 15.80 and if you took that trade place your stop above the 10 day high at 15.50 as the chart structure will improve starting next week. I sound like a broken record as I continue to recommend bearish commodity plays as deflation is the problem not inflation as a strong U.S dollar will continue throughout 2015 in my opinion as gold prices are sharply lower this week as I’ve been recommending a short position in that market as the commodity market looks to have another leg down in my opinion.

The problem with the precious metals and silver is the fact that all the interest lies in the S&P 500 which is right around its all time highs as nobody wants to own the precious metals as a safe haven as the trend is your friend and clearly the trend in silver is to downside with the next major support at $14 and if that’s broken who knows how low prices could actually go. Silver futures are trading below their 20 day and far below their 100 day moving average telling you that the trend is getting stronger to the downside, however if you have missed the original recommendation sit on the sidelines and wait for the risk/reward to be in your favor which includes better chart structure.
Trend: Lower
Chart Structure: Poor

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Coffee futures in the September contract settled last Friday at 128.40 while currently trading at 122.00 down around 600 points for the trading week as I’ve been recommending a short position and if you took that trade continue to place your stop loss above the 10 day high which currently stands at 132.50 as the chart structure will start to improve later next week. The original recommendation was to sell around the 128 level as the chart structure at that time was outstanding as the risk/reward was is your favor however, if you have not taken this trade you’re going to have to wait for some type price rally before entering. Coffee futures are trading below their 20 and 100 day moving average telling you that the trend is to the downside as I think a possible retest of the January 2014 lows around 105 could happen in the weeks to come due to the fact with large worldwide supplies coupled with the fact of a strong U.S dollar versus the Brazilian Real so I remain bearish.
Trend: Lower
Chart Structure: Poor

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Sugar futures in the October contract settled in New York last Friday at 11.96 while currently trading at 11.34 hitting a six year low as I’m currently sitting on the sidelines as the chart structure is poor as the 10 day high is too far away at 12.80 but I want to keep an eye on this market as the chart structure will improve next week as it looks like we will be playing this to the downside. Sugar futures are trading below their 20 and 100 day moving average as the long term and short term trend remain intact as the commodity markets in general remain weak and if you’ve been following my blogs you understand that I’ve been recommending a short position in many different sectors, however a 150 point risk in sugar is too high as the risk/reward is not in your favor in my opinion but I’m certainly not recommending any type of bullish position as over supplies continue to keep a lid on prices.
Trend: Lower
Chart Structure: Poor

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Weekly Crude Oil, Gold, Silver, Coffee and Sugar Markets Recap with Mike Seery

It's been a wild ride in the markets this week. And our trading partner Mike Seery is back this week to give our readers a weekly recap of the futures market. He has been a senior analyst for close to 15 years and has extensive knowledge of all of the commodity and option markets.

Crude oil futures in the August contract settled last Friday at 52.74 a barrel while currently trading at 50.78 down about $2 for the trading week hitting a four month low while still trading far below its 20 and 100 day moving average telling you that the trend is to the downside as I’ve been recommending a short position for six weeks and if you took that trade the 10 day stop has been lowered to 53.90 as the chart structure has improved tremendously.

Oil prices retreated this week due to the fact that of the Iranian deal which should put more oil onto the market down the road as 49 is major support and if that is broken you could have sharply lower prices ahead as oversupply issues still remain as the commodity markets still look weak due to the fact of a very strong U.S dollar which hit a six week high in this week’s trade.

The precious metals continue to make new lows as well as generally speaking metal prices and energy prices go hand in hand in the same direction and that direction is to the downside so continue to place the proper stop loss as this has been an outstanding trade over the course of time as are patience were tested but the path of least resistance is the successful way to trade in my opinion.
Trend: Lower
Chart Structure: Excellent

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Gold futures in the August contract settled last Friday in New York at 1,158 an ounce while currently trading at 1,137 down about $20 for the week hitting a five year low as I’ve been recommending a short position when prices broke 1,170 and if you took the original recommendation place your stop loss at the 10 day high which was lowered to 1,170 as the chart structure will start to improve on a daily basis.

Gold prices are trading far below their 20 and 100 day moving average as prices look to head lower as I’ve talked about in many previous blogs I see absolutely no reason to own the precious metals at the current time as deflation is a worldwide problem as the U.S dollar hit a six week high in this week’s trade.

Crude oil prices are also continuing their bearish trend which is also pressuring the precious metals and silver is also right near recent lows so continue to play by the rules while taking advantage of any rallies as I would like to add to this trade as I think we will break 1,100 possibly in the next couple of weeks as the trend is getting stronger on a weekly basis as the risk/reward still meets criteria.

The stock market is hitting all time highs once again today as I talked about many times all the interest lays in the equity market and not the precious metals as money flows continue to come out of the metals & into equities as that should continue in 2015 so remain short.
Trend: Lower
Chart Structure: Excellent

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Silver futures in the September contract continued their bearish momentum settling last Friday in New York at 15.48 an ounce while currently trading at 14.80 down about $.70 for the trading week as I’ve been recommending a short position from 15.80 and if you took that trade place your stop loss above the 10 day high which currently stands at 15.90 as the chart structure will not improve for several more trading days as silver prices have hit a five year low.

Silver futures are trading far below their 20 and 100 day moving average with a possible retest of last week’s low around 14.62 in the cards and if that level is broken I think there could be a washout to the downside as there’s no reason to own the precious metals at the current time as the U.S dollar hit a six week high.

Platinum prices have cracked $1,000 which has not happened in over five years as the dollar continues to put pressure on gold and silver prices here in the short term as deflation is a worldwide problem not inflation so continue to take advantage of any rallies will placing the proper stop loss as I think lower prices are still ahead despite this weeks 70 cent decline.
Trend: Lower
Chart Structure: Improving

You Might Want to Know What's Behind our "Big Trade"

Coffee futures in the September contract settled last Friday in New York at 126.25 a pound while currently trading at 128.30 as I’ve been recommending a short position from around this level as the chart structure is outstanding at the current time as the 10 day high stands at 132.50 risking around 400 points or $1,600 from today’s price levels plus slippage and commission.

Coffee prices continue to move lower on a weekly basis as the downtrend line remains intact, however if you have not taken this recommendation I am still promoting a sell order at today’s levels as the risk/reward is highly in your favor as coffee is an extremely large contract as I do think the retest of the contract low around 125 could be in the cards next week.

The problem with coffee prices and many of the agricultural markets is that we have too much supply coupled with the fact of an extremely weak Brazilian Real versus the U.S dollar which is pressuring anything that’s grown in the country of Brazil so take a shot at the downside as the risk and the chart structure both meet my criteria to enter into a trade, however if we are stopped out which there is that possibility since the stop is so close look at other markets that are trending and don’t be stubborn.
Trend: Lower
Chart Structure: Outstanding

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Sugar futures in the October contract settled last Friday in New York at 12.41 a pound while trading at 11.98 down around 40 points for the trading week as I’ve been sitting on the sidelines in this market as the trend remains choppy as prices are trading lower for the 3rd consecutive down day still trading below its 20 and 100 day moving average, as the down trend line is still intact but I’m waiting for a breakout to occur which would be the contract low of 11.52 to the downside.

Many of the commodity markets have been going lower including crude oil which is also putting pressure on sugar prices as sugar is used as a biodiesel but the real problem is the U.S dollar which continues to move higher as I’m not bullish any commodity at this time as oversupply issues and deflation worldwide continues to put pressure on prices.

Sometimes the best thing to do is not trade and avoid markets at certain times and that’s what I’m stressing right now as choppiness is difficult and frustrating as there are many other markets that are trending significantly to the downside such as gold, silver, hogs, and several others.
Trend: Mixed
Chart Structure: Solid

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Weekly Crude Oil, Gold, Coffee and Sugar Markets Recap with Mike Seery

Our trading partner Mike Seery is back this week to give our readers a weekly recap of the Futures market. He has been a senior analyst for close to 15 years and has extensive knowledge of all of the commodity and option markets.

Crude oil futures settled last Friday in New York at 60.54 a barrel in July contract while currently trading at 59.72 down about $1.00 this Friday afternoon trading below its 20 day but above its 100 day moving average as the trend currently is mixed. I will be recommending a short position if oil breaks $50 a barrel then placing your stop loss above the 10 day high but at the current time I’m sitting on the sidelines waiting for a breakout to occur as the U.S dollar was up 300 points this trading week reversing much of its recent losses putting pressure on many commodity prices in the last several days.

Sometimes as a trader the best thing to do is sit on the sidelines and be patient and wait for a trend to develop as this market could be headed to the downside in my opinion next week so keep a close eye on this market as a possible trade is coming. Its Memorial Day weekend here in the United States which creates high demand for unleaded gasoline as millions of Americans will be on the road in the next several days, however I think that’s already been priced into the market as the fundamentals I do believe will turn bearish once again but avoid choppy markets as they are very difficult to trade successfully in my opinion and wait for the breakouts to occur which could happen in Tuesday trade.
Trend: Mixed
Chart Structure: Improving

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Gold futures in the June contract are trading above their 20 day but below their 100 day moving average telling you that the trend remains mixed as I’ve been sitting on the sidelines in this market for quite some time as prices are stuck in an eight week consolidation. The U.S dollar was up over 300 points for the trading week as the ECB basically stated that they will add more stimulus to push the Euro currency lower as the tide has turned and I see no reason to own gold at the present time coupled with the fact that the stock market is hitting another all time high as interest is in the equities and not in the precious metals. The next breakout is around 1,230 to the upside but the chart structure is poor at the current time so look at other markets that are beginning to trend as the U.S dollar in my opinion looks to break 100 in the coming weeks which will continue to put pressure on gold prices. Gold settled last Friday at 1,225 an ounce while currently trading at 1,205 down $20 for the trading week as Memorial Day weekend is upon us.
Trend: Mixed
Chart Structure: Poor

Coffee futures in July contract are lower for the 4th consecutive trading session at 126.50 a pound hitting a fresh contract low trading far below their 20 and 100 day moving average as world production was raised to 154.5 million bags above recent estimates sending coffee prices sharply lower as I was recommending a short position, however I got stopped out as prices hit the 10 day high and I’m now sitting on the sidelines as the risk is too high in my opinion. The chart structure in coffee is terrible at the current time but I’m certainly not recommending any type of bullish position as prices could retest the September 2013 lows around 105 a pound in the coming weeks as worldwide production seems to be growing on a weekly basis. As a trader I look for the risk/reward to be in your favor coupled with very solid chart structure but at the current time this market does not meet either of those theories so I have to wait for better chart structure to develop as it might take a week or so depending on market activity, however lower prices look to be ahead as many of the agricultural markets especially the soft commodities continue to move lower in the short term, however oversold conditions currently exist in my opinion.
Trend: Lower
Chart Structure: Poor

Sugar futures in the July contract are trading lower for the 3rd consecutive trading session as I was recommending a bullish futures position when prices broke out around 13.55 getting stopped out this week around the 12.66 level losing around 90 points or $1,000 plus slippage and commission as that trade went south immediately. Sugar futures are now trading below their 20 and 100 day moving average hitting a 7 week low as I’m now sitting on the sidelines as the chart structure remains poor at the current time. Sugar futures settled last Friday at 12.86 while currently trading at 12.37 down about 50 points for the trading week as this market remains extremely choppy as I will wait for a lower risk entry point which could be several weeks away in my opinion. Many of the commodity markets remain choppy as I have very few recommendations at the current time as I’m trend follower but the one thing that I do understand is that the trends will come back it just may take some time so be patient as volatility will come back.
Trend: Lower
Chart Structure: Poor

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Weekly Crude Oil, Gold, Silver and Coffee Markets Recap with Mike Seery

Our trading partner Mike Seery is back this week to give our readers a weekly recap of the Futures market. He has been Senior Analyst for close to 15 years and has extensive knowledge of all of the commodity and option markets.

Crude oil futures in the June contract are trading above their 20 and 100 day moving average as I’ve talked about in many previous blogs I’m sitting on the sidelines in this market but I do think prices have topped out around $62 which seems to be major resistance as prices settled last Friday at 59.37 while currently trading at 59.70 up slightly for the trading week. If you are currently long this market I would place my stop loss below the 10 day low which currently stands around 58.40 as Saudi Arabia this week stated that prices will never get to $100 again and actually said in the next decade prices could stay below $40 as the world is awash with crude oil at the current time. The U.S dollar hit a 4 month low this week and that has pushed up oil prices and many of the commodity prices as the CRB index hit a five month high as well but I do think this rally as long in the tooth as lower prices are ahead but I’m still sitting on the sidelines waiting for better chart structure to develop.
Trend: Higher
Chart Structure: Improving

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Gold futures in the June contract are trading above their 20 and 100 day moving average looking to breakout after a 7 week consolidation after settling in New York last Friday at 1,189 currently trading at 1,220 rallying about $30 over the last week as the U.S dollar hit a 4 month low pushing up the precious metals and many commodity prices in general. I am currently sitting on the sidelines in this market as I’m waiting for better chart structure as the 10 day low needs to be raised before we enter, however we could be looking at possibly getting into a bullish position sometime next week as I’m certainly not recommending any type of short position as that’s countertrend at the current time.

The 10 day low is over $40 away so before entering this trade I would like to see the stop loss around $25 away which could happen in week’s trade as the risk factor is my number one formula before entering into a trade so sit on the sidelines and wait for 1,225 to be broken with solid chart structure as my last two recommendations were both to the downside & both were small losers. As a trader you must have thick skin and have to forget about past winners and losers and stay with your trading system and my trading system is a trend following system as I will enter this trade on the upside without blinking twice if the trade meets criteria.
Trend: Higher
Chart structure: Poor

Silver futures in the July contract are trading higher for the 4th consecutive trading session after settling last Friday in New York at 16.47 an ounce up over $1 for the trading week hitting an 11 week high, however the chart structure is extremely poor at the current time so I’m sitting on the sidelines but I’m certainly not recommending any short positions as the trend clearly is to the upside due to the U.S dollar which is down around 800 points over the last 2 months supporting prices here in the short term. Silver futures are trading above their 20 and 100 day moving average telling you that the trend is to the upside, however the 10 day low it’s too far away to meet criteria so keep an eye on this market and take advantage of any price dips as silver certainly looks to be moving higher in my opinion.

Silver prices continued to flirt with the 15.50 level and was unable to break so now prices are looking at the critical 17.50 level as major resistance and then 18.45 as conditions are overbought at the current time so look for profit taking to ensue before entering a bullish position in my opinion. Volatility in silver has increased in the last several days as silver historically speaking is one of the most volatile commodities on a daily basis so make sure you place the proper amount of contracts risking 2% of your account balance on any given trade as the last two recommendations in silver were to the downside and both were small losses.
Trend: Higher
Chart Structure: Poor

Coffee futures in the July contract settled last Friday at 134.65 while currently trading at 138 as I’ve been recommending a short position when prices broke the 135 level and if you took the original trade continue to place your stop at 138.30 on a closing basis as we could be stopped out possibly in today’s trade. The volatility in coffee is extremely low at the current time with outstanding chart structure but if you are stopped out move on and look at other markets that are beginning to trend as I’m very surprised to see this little volatility in such a highly volatile commodity.

Coffee prices have stalled out around the 130 level over the last several months as I would have to think that volatility will start to increase as we’re hanging in there by the skin of our teeth and if you did not take this trade look at other markets as well as it looks like this trend is starting to fizzle out in my opinion.

When you trade the commodity markets you must accept many small losses and that’s what occurring to me over the last several weeks as the loss will be around $1,200 but percentage wise was very small and that’s what I always try to stipulate that you must make sure that you risk 2% maximum on any given trade because you will have more losers than winners over the course of time in my opinion as the object is to let your winners run and cut your losses.
Trend: Mixed
Chart Structure: Excellent

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Mike Seerys Weekly Crude Oil, Gold, Coffee and Corn Markets Recap

Our trading partner Michael Seery is back this week to give our readers a weekly recap of the futures market. Mike has been Senior Analyst for close to 15 years and has extensive knowledge of all of the commodity and option markets.

Crude oil futures in the June contract are trading below their 20 and 100 day moving average as I have been sitting on the sidelines for the last several months in this market but if have a long futures position I would continue place your stop loss above the 10 day low which stands at 56.00 however in my opinion I think prices have topped out.

Strong demand and a very weak U.S dollar have pushed crude oil prices up from a contract low around $46 a barrel to around $63 in Wednesdays trade which has been a remarkable rally in my opinion but I think this market is overextended so I’m still going to remain sitting on the sidelines waiting for better chart structure to develop as this market will remain volatile for the rest of 2015 in my opinion giving you many trading opportunities.

Many of the commodity markets rallied in recent weeks as the U.S dollar is hitting a 3 month low which has been very supportive, however with record supplies overhanging that should keep a lid on prices at this point in time but I just don’t know where short term prices are headed so I’m looking at other markets that are beginning to trend.
Trend: Higher
Chart Structure: Solid

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Gold futures settled last Friday at 1,174 an ounce while currently trading at 1,185 in a relatively quiet trading week while still trading below its 20 and 100 day moving average continuing its lower to choppy trend as the true breakout does not occur on the upside until 1,225 is broken or on the downside at 1,170 as I remain neutral at the current time.

The chart structure is starting to improve as gold prices have gone sideways for the last six weeks consolidating the recent down move as the U.S dollar is hitting a three month low and has been supporting gold and silver in recent weeks so be patient and keep an eye on this market at the current time. The monthly unemployment came out strong stating that the unemployment rate is 5.4% sending the stock market sharply higher as I’m surprised that gold futures are not lower this afternoon as the interest rates in the United States have been on the rise sending volatility into the commodity markets as I still see no reason to own gold at the current time but currently this market is stuck in a consolidation and in my opinion it’s very difficult to make money when a trend is not in sight.
Trend: Mixed
Chart Structure: Improving

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Coffee futures in the July contract are higher by 300 points this Friday afternoon currently trading at 134.70 a pound after settling last Friday at 134.20 in a very nonvolatile trading week. I have been recommending a short position when prices broke 135 in last week’s trade and if you took that recommendation place your stop loss above the 10 day high which currently stands at 144 risking around 1000 points or $3,800 per contract plus slippage and commission.

The chart structure will improve dramatically next week helping lower monetary risk as prices are still trading below their 20 and 100 day moving average telling you that the trend is to the downside as big production could come out of Brazil which could send prices in my opinion as low as 100 a pound as the Brazilian Real has strengthened against the U.S dollar in recent weeks, but still remains in a long-term bear market which is negative for anything grown in Brazil.

The next level of support is Wednesdays low around 130 as many of the soft commodities were higher this Friday afternoon so continue to play this to the downside in my opinion as I think the risk/reward is in your favor.
Trend: Lower
Chart Structure: Excellent

This Chart Must Be Broken Before a Bear Market Can Be Confirmed

Corn futures in the December contract are trading below their 20 and 100 day moving average after settling last Friday in Chicago at 3.80 a bushel while currently trading at 3.79 down slightly for the trading week as 55% of the crop has already been planted with expectations for this Monday’s crop report as high as 85% as the weather in the Midwestern part of the United States is excellent and especially in the state of Illinois. I have been recommending a short position when corn prices broke 3.95 a bushel and if you took that trade place your stop loss above the 10 day high which currently stands at 3.87 risking around $.8 or $400 from today’s price level plus slippage and commission as the chart structure remains outstanding.

Expectations of this year’s crop are around 13.6 billion bushels which is 500 million bushels less than last year, however carry over levels are very large coupled with a strengthening dollar compared to last year as I still remain bearish especially as the weather remains ideal, however it’s an extremely long growing season as we usually do get some type of weather scare to the upside due to hot and dry weather forecasts, however the trend is your friend and the weather forecasts are bearish.

Traders await next week’s USDA crop report which definitely can send volatility back into this market but weather is the main focus at this time as we head into the hot and dry summer season which can send volatility into this market as we suffered a drought in 2012 sending prices to a record high of around $8.50 so make sure you place the proper amount of contracts while also placing the proper stop loss.
Trend: Lower
Chart Structure: Excellent

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Mike Seerys Weekly Natural Gas Futures Recap

Our trading partner Michael Seery is back with his weekly recap of the Futures market. He has been a senior analyst for close to 15 years and has extensive knowledge of all of the commodity and option markets.

Natural gas futures in the June contract settled last Friday at 2.68 while currently trading at 2.56 down around 12 points for the trading week as I have been recommending a short position in the last several weeks as this trade has basically gone sideways to slightly lower and if you took the original recommendation place your stop loss above the 10 day high which currently stands at 2.73 risking around 17 points or $425 per mini contract plus slippage and commission and if you are trading the March contract the risk would be $1,700 plus slippage and commission as the chart structure is outstanding at the current time.

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Many of the commodity markets were lower this afternoon, however average temperatures in the Midwestern part of the United States are dragging natural gas prices lower with the next major resistance around 2.50 so continue to play this to the downside and take advantage of any rallies as the chart structure is outstanding allowing you to place a very tight stop therefore lowering monetary risk as prices are still trading below their 20 and 100 day moving average telling you that the trend is to the downside as prices closed at the weekly low.
Trend: Lower
Chart Structure: Excellent

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Mike Seerys Weekly Crude Oil, Gold, Silver and Coffee Market Summary

We've asked our trading partner Michael Seery to give our readers a weekly recap of the futures market. He has been a senior analyst for close to 15 years and has extensive knowledge of all of the commodity and option markets.

Here's Mikes call on crude oil, gold and silver. Read more of his calls for this week by visiting here.

Crude oil futures in the May contract are down $1.00 this Thursday afternoon currently trading at 49.00 a barrel after closing last Friday at 40.87 basically unchanged for the trading week with very volatile trading sessions including yesterday when prices were up about $3 dollars as I’m still sitting on the sidelines in this market as the trend remains mixed and very choppy. Crude oil futures have been consolidating between $45 – $55 for the last three months after falling out of bed from around $90 a barrel to around $45 and that doesn’t surprise me as we could see sideways action for several more months to come so be patient and look at another market that’s currently trending.

If you take a look at the daily chart there’s a possible double bottom being created around the $45 level and if you are bullish this market and think prices have bottomed I would probably take a shot at today’s price level while placing my stop loss below $45 risking around $4,000 per contract plus slippage and commission, however like I stated I’m currently waiting for a true breakout to occur. Traders are awaiting tomorrow’s monthly unemployment number, however markets will be closed so the reaction will happen on Sunday night and that will send high volatility into the market as expectations are 244,000 new jobs added as a stronger economy certainly creates stronger demand for gasoline and crude oil.
Trend: Mixed
Chart Structure: Solid

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Gold futures in the June contract are down $11 this Thursday afternoon in New York trading at 1,197 an ounce basically unchanged for the trading week as investors are awaiting tomorrow’s monthly appointment number which should send high volatility into this market as prices have rallied about $60 over the last three weeks as profit-taking ensued in today’s trading action. Gold futures are trading above their 20 day but still below their 100 day moving average telling you that the trend is mixed as I’m sitting on the sidelines waiting for better chart structure to develop as tomorrows trade should be very interesting.

Estimates are around 244,000 new jobs added so any number higher than that will probably send gold prices sharply lower as that might in turn tell the Federal Reserve that interest rates might have to be raised sooner rather than later. The next major resistance in gold prices is at 1,220 as that’s the true breakout to the upside in my opinion, however the chart structure remains poor at the current time so wait for a tighter trading range to develop allowing you to place your stop loss minimizing risk as much as possible and try to stick with trades that are trending as this market remains very choppy so avoid gold at the current time.
Trend: Mixed
Chart structure: Poor

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Silver futures in the May contract settled last Friday at 17.07 an ounce while currently trading at 16.85 on this holiday shortened week due to the Good Friday holiday tomorrow the markets will be closed finishing down around 20 cents for the trading week still hovering near a 6 week high. Silver futures are trading below their 20 and 100 day moving average as I have been sitting on the sidelines in this market as the chart structure is poor at the current time, however if you are bullish silver prices and think prices have bottomed my recommendation would be to buy at today’s price while placing your stop loss at the 10 day low which currently stands at 16.47 risking about $.40 or $400 per mini contract plus slippage and commission.

Volatility in silver and the precious metals as a whole has come back as weakness in the S&P 500 is starting to put money back into the precious metals in the short term as the U.S dollar has been consolidating their recent run up as I still see choppiness ahead in silver as I’m waiting for a better chart pattern and tighter chart structure to develop therefore allowing you to place a tighter stop loss minimizing monetary risk. TREND: HIGHER
CHART STRUCTURE: POOR

Coffee futures in the May contract are currently trading up 300 points at 137.80 a pound basically finishing unchanged for the trading week as volatility remains high despite the fact that prices remain in an extremely tight trading range over the last four weeks between 130 – 145 as a breakout is looming in my opinion as I’m currently sitting on the sidelines waiting for something to develop.

If you have been following my previous blogs I have very few recommendations at the current time as many of the commodity markets are consolidating in the sideways pattern just like the coffee market as a breakout will not occur until prices break above 145 or below 130 as we start to enter the frost season in Brazil which can occur in May and June like it did in 1994 sending prices from 60 all the way up to around 260 in a matter of weeks.

In my opinion coffee prices are on the verge of a bottoming pattern and we might go sideways for quite some time so keep a close eye on this market as this sleeping giant will wake up once again. Coffee prices traded as high as 230 just 6 months ago dropping dramatically as excellent weather conditions persisted throughout the growing year in Brazil but that has already been priced into the market as volatility certainly will increase. Trend: Mixed
Chart structure: Excellent


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Mike Seerys Weekly Crude Oil, Gold and Silver Market Summary

We've asked our trading partner Michael Seery to give our readers a weekly recap of the futures market. He has been a senior analyst for close to 15 years and has extensive knowledge of all of the commodity and option markets.

Here's Mikes call on crude oil, gold and silver. Read more of his calls for this week by visiting here.

Crude oil futures in the May contract are down $1.50 this Friday afternoon trading at 49.70 after settling last Friday at 46.57 up over $3 dollars for the trading week as prices traded as high as 52.48 in yesterday’s trade because of the fact of a possible war developing between Saudi Arabia and Yemen sending prices sharply higher.

I was recommending a short position in crude oil getting stopped out in yesterday’s trade giving back most of the profits, however the trade was still slightly profitable but disappointing as prices rallied 4 straight trading sessions before today with a possible double bottom around the 45.00 level being created. At the current time I’m sitting on the sidelines waiting for another trend to develop as a true breakout to the upside will be above 55.00 and the downside breakout won’t occur until prices break the contract low around 45.00 a barrel so keep an eye on this market as the chart structure remains outstanding.

Crude oil futures are still trading below their 20 and 100 day moving average telling you that the trend is to the downside, however my exit strategy is if I’m short and prices hit a two week high against me then it’s time to move on and look at other markets that are beginning to trend as you must have an exit strategy as holding and never getting out of a position is extremely dangerous in my opinion as you must be nimble. At the current time I’m holding very few positions as I got stopped out of many positions in the last week so currently I’m only short sugar, lean hogs, and soybeans and I will be sitting on the sidelines waiting for new trends to develop.
Trend: Mixed
Chart structure: Excellent

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Gold futures in the April contract settled last Friday at 1,185 an ounce currently trading at 1,200 up $15 for the trading week closing higher 8 out of the last 9 trading sessions in an impressive rally which started all the way back at 1,140 peeking out in yesterday’s trade at 1,220 as Saudi Arabia is sending ground troops into the country of Yemen sending the market sharply higher as that altercation looks to stay for some time to come.

Gold futures are trading above their 20 but below their 100 day moving average telling you that the trend is mixed as I’m currently sitting on the sidelines in this market as I was recommending a short position last week getting stopped out in last Fridays trade and that’s why you must have an exit strategy as the 10 day high was 1,177 as we have rallied $43 higher from that level this week with major resistance at 1,220 which is the true breakout in my opinion, and if that level is broken I would be recommending a bullish position but at this point in time I am neutral as the chart structure is poor at the current time due to the fact of the recent run up in prices.

Gold futures have been extremely choppy over the last six months and choppy markets in my opinion are very difficult to trade successfully so at this point look for another trend that is starting to develop.
Trend: Higher
Chart structure: Poor

Silver futures in the May contract settled last Friday in New York at 16.88 an ounce while currently trading this Friday afternoon at 17.08 up around 20 cents for the trading week hitting a four week high and now trading above its 20 and 100 day moving average telling you that the trend is to the upside. I was recommending a short position in silver getting stopped out last week at the 2 week high which was around 16.20 and currently I’m sitting on the sidelines waiting for better chart structure to develop as the 10 day low is around 15.35 which is a $1.70 away as the risk is too high at the moment. Silver futures traded as high as 17.40 in yesterday’s trade on news that Saudi Arabia is sending ground troops into the country of Yemen as a possible war is at hand as the U.S dollar has also dropped about 4% from its contract high lending support to the precious metals as a whole. In my opinion I think you should wait for better chart structure to develop so be patient and keep an eye on this market as the trend may have turned to the upside but I will wait for a lower risk trade before entering.
Trend: Higher
Chart structure: Poor


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Mike Seerys Weekly Crude Oil, Gold and Silver Market Summary

We've asked our trading partner Michael Seery to give our readers a weekly recap of the futures market. He has been a senior analyst for close to 15 years and has extensive knowledge of all of the commodity and option markets.

Here's Mikes call on crude oil, gold and silver. Read more of his calls for this week by visiting here.

Crude oil futures in the May contract are up $1.20 a barrel currently trading at 46.70 as I've been recommending a short position when prices broke out to contract lows earlier last week and if you took that trade continue to place your stop loss at the 10 day high which currently stands at 52.00 risking around $7 dollars or $3,500 per mini contract plus slippage and commission as the chart structure remains poor, however it will start to tighten up on a daily basis next week.

Crude oil futures rallied today because of the fact that the U.S dollar is down 160 points pushing up many commodity prices, however as the trend follower I continue to think lower prices are ahead so make sure you place the proper amount of contracts on risking 2% of your account balance as oversupply issues are currently keeping a lid on prices.

The precious metals, grain market, stock markets, and the energy complex were all higher today as it seems to me that we had a relief rally taking place due to the fact that of the FOMC minutes which were construed bullish as interest rates are not going higher in the short term . As a trader I believe you must follow the trend and the short term trend is to the downside so don’t let a 1 or 2 day rally bother you as you must stick to the rules and that sometimes means giving back profits.
Trend: Lower
Chart Structure: Poor

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Gold futures in the April contract are higher for the 3rd consecutive trading session hitting a 2 week high as I have been recommending a short position getting stopped out in today's trade licking my wounds as I'm a little disappointed as it was all based on the FOMC minutes as they are not going to raise interest rates anytime soon pushing up many of the commodity markets especially the precious metals.

Gold futures are still trading below their 20 and 100 day moving average, however as an exit strategy when I'm short and prices hit a two week high it’s time to move on and sit on the sidelines as prices settled last Friday at 1,152 while currently trading at 1,187 up over $30 in an impressive week especially considering the fact that the NASDAQ 100 has crossed 5000 once again as everything is basically higher across the board this afternoon.

I've been recommending a short position from around 1,160 getting stopped out at 1,177 as it was a losing trade but nothing horrific but disappointing as always when you're on the wrong side of a trade, however I do think we will be sitting on the sidelines in this market for quite some time waiting for better chart structure to develop as I think prices will chop around trading off of the U.S dollar which has turned very volatile at the current time.
Trend: Mixed
Chart Structure: Poor

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Silver futures in the May contract are sharply higher this Friday afternoon trading up $.75 in New York hitting a four week high as I’ve been recommending a short position in silver prices getting stopped out around the 16.20 level as prices have skyrocketed off the FOMC minutes stating that they will not raise interest rates sending many commodities sharply higher on short covering alone. Silver futures are trading above their 20 but still below their 100 day moving average as I’m now advising clients to sit on the sidelines and wait for better chart structure to develop as prices settled last Friday at 15.50 finishing up almost $1.40 for the trading week having one of its best weeks in months as the U.S dollar is down 160 points pushing up the precious metals in today’s action.

I’ve been recommending a short position from around the 15.60 level losing around $.60 on the trade or $600 per mini contract and I’m disappointed but it’s time to move on and look at another market that is currently trending as many of the commodities may have experienced a short term bounce as it looks like interest rates flat out are not going higher. The chart structure in silver at the current time is terrible as prices have skyrocketed in the last three days as volatility is high once again so look at a different market with less risk at the current time as the 15.50 breakout to the downside was false and that happens so you have to deal with it and risk as little amount of money as possible.
Trend: Mixed
Chart Structure: Poor


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