Crude Oil Rally Struggling Against Future Demand Concerns

June crude oil was higher overnight as it extended the rally off April's low and are still holding up despite future demand threats from worse than expected retail numbers this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

If June extends the rally, the reaction high crossing at 65.00 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 53.18 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted.

Wednesday's pivot point, our line in the sand is 58.91

First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 60.08
Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 65.00

First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 56.10
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 53.18

Today’s Stock Market Club Trading Triangles

The June Dollar was steady to lower overnight as it consolidates below the 75% retracement level of the December-March rally crossing at 827.50. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term.

If June extends the decline off April's high, the 87% retracement level of the December-March rally crossing at 81.49 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 84.75 would temper the near term bearish outlook in the market.

First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 83.62
Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 84.75

First support is the overnight low crossing at 81.98
Second support is the 87% retracement level crossing at 81.49

Today’s Stock Market Club Trading Triangles

The June S&P 500 index was lower overnight and is testing initial support marked by the 10 day moving average crossing at 901.93. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bearish hinting that a short term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 877.90 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted.

If June renews the rally off March's low, January's high crossing at 937.00 is the next upside target.

Our pivot point for Wednesday is 905

First resistance is last Thursday's high crossing at 916.75
Second resistance is January's high crossing at 927.50

First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 895.75
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 884.50

The June S&P 500 Index was down 4.50 points. at 902.30 as of 6:00 AM CST. Overnight action sets the stage for a lower opening by the June S&P 500 index when the day session begins later this morning.

10:30 AM ET. May 15

US Energy Dept Oil Inventories

Crude Oil Stocks (previous 375.3M)

Crude Oil Stocks (Net Change)(expected +1.3M; previous +600K)

Gasoline Stocks (previous 212.4M)

Gasoline Stocks (Net Change)(expected 0; previous -200K)

Distillate Stocks (previous 146.5M)

Distillate Stocks (Net Change)(expected +1.3M; previous +2.4M)

Refinery Usage (expected 85.4%; previous 85.3%)


Today’s Stock Market Club Trading Triangles



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Crude Oil Hits Fresh 5 1/2 Month High

June crude oil closed up $0.23 at $58.73 a barrel today. Prices closed near mid range today and did hit a fresh 5 1/2 month high. Bulls do still have the near
term technical advantage. A steep three week old uptrend is in place on the daily bar chart.

June heating oil closed up 66 points at $1.5075 today. Prices closed near mid range again today. Prices hit a fresh four month high today. Bulls and bears are on a level near term technical playing field.

June unleaded gasoline closed down 130 points at $1.6672 today. Prices closed nearer the session low today. Bulls still have some upside technical momentum. However, the market is still short term overbought, technically.

June natural gas closed up 18.8 cents at $4.49 today. Prices closed near the session high today and hit a fresh six week high. Bulls have gained upside near term technical momentum recently to finally suggest that a major market low is in place.

The June U.S. dollar index closed down 37 points at 82.42 today. Prices closed nearer the session low and hit a fresh 4 1/2 month low today. Prices are in a nine week old downtrend on the daily bar chart. Bears have the near term technical advantage.


Today’s Stock Market Club Trading Triangles


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Oil Retreats On Drop In Stock market, Interior Dept. Seeks Drilling Clarification

"Oil Retreats on Stock Market Drop, U.S. Inventory Forecast"
Crude oil retreated after U.S. equities dropped and on expectations that a government report will show U.S. inventories increased for a 10th week. Oil followed stocks lower, reversing gains made last week after the U.S. economy lost fewer jobs than expected. Stockpiles climbed 1 million barrels last week, according to the median of 14 responses in a Bloomberg News survey. Supplies rose to the highest level since September 1990 in the week ended May 1 as fuel demand plunged, the Energy Department said.

“Equities are having another bad day, which is taking some of the wind out of the sails of the oil market,” said Addison Armstrong, director of market research at Tradition Energy in Stamford, Connecticut. “The oil market is going to be taking its direction from equities.....Complete Story

"US Interior Dept Seeks Clarification of Offshore Leasing Ruling"
The Interior Department is expected to ask a federal appeals court in Washington, D.C., to clarify what it meant when it determined the agency failed to adequately consider the effect of an offshore oil and gas leasing program in Alaska.

The court in April ruled that the department's Minerals Management Service failed to consider the effect on the environment and marine life before it began under the Bush administration in 2005 to expand an offshore oil and gas leasing program in the Beaufort, Bering and Chukchi seas. The appeals court ordered the Interior Department, now run by President Barack Obama's appointee Ken Salazar, to analyze the areas to determine.....Complete Story

"Oil Companies May Wait for Hedges to End to Go Bargain Shopping"
Quantum Energy Partners, the Houston private-equity firm that put together a $3.5 billion bankroll to go bargain hunting for acquisitions after oil and natural-gas prices plunged, is waiting for a better time to pounce. Buyers will accelerate acquisitions late this year and in early 2010 as the hedging contracts that shielded potential takeover targets from tumbling prices expire, said Wil VanLoh, Quantum’s chief executive officer.

“By the first quarter of next year, we’ll be pretty darn active,” VanLoh said in an interview at his downtown office. “Many companies are very well hedged for 2009, so the squeeze hasn’t happened yet. The point of capitulation probably will arrive in the fourth quarter or the first.....Complete Story


Today’s Stock Market Club Trading Triangles


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How To Use Intra-Day Charts To Time Low Risk Entry Points

Intra-day charts can find low risk entry points in any market.

In this short video, we will show you how to use intra-day charts to time low risk entry points in any market that has an established trend. In this example, we are looking at a 30-minute chart of July crude oil (CL.N09). With all of our indicators in a positive trend for crude oil, we are looking for low risk entry levels where we can add to, or institute new positions.

This video will demonstrate how to move into a market even if you have missed the initial buy/sell signal.

You can view this new video with our compliments. There are no registration requirements. Please enjoy and give us your feedback by leaving a comment!


Today’s Stock Market Club Trading Triangles


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Crude Oil Rally Looks To Continue As U.S. Dollar Weakens

June crude oil was higher overnight as it extends last week's rally above March's high crossing at 56.10. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

If June extends last week's rally, the reaction high crossing at 65.00 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 52.82 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted.

The current rally in crude oil has been fueled by the falling U.S. Dollar and as it rebounds for a couple of days most professional traders will be buying the dips in crude oil.

Tuesday's pivot point, our line in the sand is 57.84

First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 59.68.
Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 65.00.

First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 55.29.
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 52.82.

The weekly pivot point is 56.65

Today’s Stock Market Club Trading Triangles

The June Dollar was lower overnight as it extends last Friday's decline below the 75% retracement level of the December-March rally crossing at 827.50. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term.

If June extends the decline off April's high, the 87% retracement level of the December-March rally crossing at 81.49 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 84.90 would temper the near term bearish outlook in the market.

First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 83.86.
Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 84.90.

First support is the overnight low crossing at 82.38.
Second support is the 87% retracement level crossing at 81.49.

Today’s Stock Market Club Trading Triangles

The June S&P 500 index was steady to slightly higher overnight due to short covering as it consolidates some of Monday's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning bearish hinting that a short term top might be in or is near.

While most professional traders look for a break through 898 to spell trouble for the bulls, closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 875.36 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted.

If June extends the rally off March's low, January's high crossing at 937.00 is the next upside target.

Tuesday's daily pivot point, our line in the sand is 913.25

First resistance is last Thursday's high crossing at 919.50
Second resistance is January's high crossing at 930

First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 902.75
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 895.75

Watch the converging of the weekly pivot at 910.75, the daily pivot of 913.25 and monthly resistance of 912.50.

The June S&P 500 Index was up 1.00 points. at 910.00 as of 5:56 AM CST. Overnight action sets the stage for a steady to higher opening by the June S&P 500 index but that could be at risk as trade deficit numbers have come in worse than expected.

Crude Oil Closes Lower, Bulls Still Have Technical Advantage

June crude oil closed down $0.28 at $58.35 a barrel today. Prices closed near the session high today after prices Friday hit another fresh four month high. Bulls do still have the near term technical advantage.

June heating oil closed down 189 points at $1.4995 today. Prices closed near mid range today. Bears still have the slight overall technical advantage.

June unleaded gasoline closed down 270 points at $1.6785 today. Prices closed near mid range today. Bulls still have upside technical momentum. However, the market is still short term overbought, technically.

June natural gas closed down 2 1/2 cents at $4.286 today. Prices closed near mid range today. While the bears still have the overall near term technical advantage, the bulls have gained fresh near term technical momentum recently to finally suggest that a major market low is in place.

The June U.S. dollar index closed up 16 points at 82.80 today. Prices closed nearer the session high after hitting a fresh 4 1/2 month low early on today. Short covering in a bear market was featured. Bears still have the near term technical advantage.

The U.S. stock indexes closed mostly lower today on some more profit taking pressure from recent solid gains and on lingering worries about the U.S. economy and when any recovery can be sustained. The bulls need to step up and show fresh power soon to keep their upside momentum going after prices have rallied strongly off the March lows.


Today’s Stock Market Club Trading Triangles


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What Is The Trend For Crude Oil?

Two of the most common tickers our readers seem to be using for trading crude oil are DXO and UCO. Here is a brief trend analysis on both tickers. Sign up for our free trend analysis service and get these in your in box automatically every morning!

DXO Strong Uptrend

Smart Scan Chart Analysis continues positive longer term. Look for this market to remain firm. Strong Uptrend with money management stops. A triangle indicates the presence of a very strong trend that is being driven by strong forces and insiders.

Based on a pre-defined weighted trend formula for chart analysis, DXO scored +90 on a scale from -100 (strong downtrend) to +100 (strong uptrend):

-10.....Last Hour Close Below 5 hour Moving Average
+15.....New 3 Day High on Friday
+20.....Last Price Above 20 Day Moving Average
+25.....New 3 Week High, Week Ending May 9th
+30.....New 3 Month High in May
+90.....Total Score



UCO Very Weak Uptrend

Smart Scan Chart Analysis shows the current uptrend is at a crossroads and has possibly ended. Look for choppy trading action in the near term Very Weak Uptrend with very tight stops.

Based on a pre-defined weighted trend formula for chart analysis, UCO scored +60 on a scale from -100 (strong downtrend) to +100 (strong uptrend):

-10.....Last Hour Close Below 5 hour Moving Average
+15.....New 3 Day High on Friday
+20.....Last Price Above 20 Day Moving Average
+25.....New 3 Week High, Week Ending May 9th
-30.....New 3 Month Low in February
+60.....Total Score




Today’s Stock Market Club Trading Triangles


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Crude Oil Headed Lower On Monday, Higher Prices Still Possible Near Term

Crude oil is set to pull back on Monday as general market sediment has us going lower today. Can crude oil continue a bullish trend as the indexes rollover? Most likely the answer is yes.

The U.S. Dollar is still our best indicator and with the dollar breaking the daily 200 EMA we expect the dollar to go lower. Also, the commercials are holding their smallest short position's in the months, it appears the overall attitude on crude oil remains bullish.

At this point most professional traders will be buying the pullbacks, we'll be doing the same. For day traders watch the weekly pivot of 56.65, very close to our 1st support of 56.94, as traders looking to go long may pile in at this level.

The pivot point for Monday, our line in the sand is 57.85

1st resistance is 59.54
2nd resistance is 60.45
3rd resistance is 62.14

1st support is 56.94
2nd support is 55.25
3rd support is 54.34

The weekly pivot point is 56.65


Today’s Stock Market Club Trading Triangles



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"Exxon Begins Drilling at Point Thomson"

Exxon Mobil says it has begun drilling at Alaska's Point Thomson oil and gas field.
Patrick McGinn, a company spokesman, says drilling operations were launched Friday.

In February, Exxon returned eight of its Point Thomson leases that were part of 13 added to the field in 2002. Exxon had promised to drill wells and begin producing oil within four years, but no drilling occurred.

The state has been fighting with the Irving, Texas based oil giant and other lease holders over the lack of progress there.

Alaska officials have tried to cancel the leases, but in January it did allow Exxon to drill on two leases after the company said it would start production within five years.



How do you feel about big oil being pressured to use their leases or risk losing them? Feel free to leave a comment, our readers want to know what you think!


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USO and Crude Oil On The Move

We don’t often produce videos on ETFs, but we find USO to be very interesting right now. This ETF, United States Oil, closely tracks the price of crude oil in New York.

This market appears to have completed a formation that could have great profit opportunities in the near term.

In our new video, we explain in detail a strategy that we are using to approach this market. As always, our videos are registration free and come with our compliments.

Please feel free to comment on our blog about your experiences and thoughts on USO and the crude oil market.



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