Friday, June 5, 2009
Oil Prices Spike Above $70
Oil was steady around $69 a barrel Friday after approaching $70 the day before, when the first drop in U.S. weekly unemployment claims in five months provided another sign that demand for crude could improve. Investors looked to the crucial U.S. payrolls data for May, due later Friday, for more direction. Benchmark crude for July delivery slipped 4 cents to $68.77 a barrel by midday in European electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. On Thursday the contract shot up $2.69 to settle at $68.81 after trading as high as $69.60. Crude's stellar rise it now fetches roughly twice what it did only four months ago in dollar terms is leading analysts to revise forecasts even further upward, with many now saying they expect a barrel to cost $80 or more by year's end.....Complete Story
Thursday, June 4, 2009
ALERT: Buy Signal on Crude Oil 6/04/09
ALERT: Our “Trade Triangle™” technology has us back in crude oil by signaling a buy on crude oil today at a basis of 69.05 for the July contract.
Today’s Stock Market Club Trading Triangles
Trade Crude in 90 Seconds Click Here
Today’s Stock Market Club Trading Triangles
Trade Crude in 90 Seconds Click Here
Goldman Sachs Call For $85 Crude Oil, We Are Taking Profits At $70
Today’s Stock Market Club Trading Triangles
July crude oil closed up $2.66 at $68.78 a barrel today. Prices closed nearer the session high today and hit a fresh seven month high on a prediction from Goldman Sachs that crude oil prices would reach $85.00 a barrel this year and $95.00 next year. However, Goldman's track record on oil predictions is spotty. I would not be surprised to see crude oil prices touch the $70.00 a barrel mark and then see a good profit taking pullback. Crude oil bulls have the near term technical advantage. A six week old uptrend is still in place on the daily bar chart.
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July natural gas closed up 9.3 cents at $3.859 today. Prices closed nearer the session high today, on short covering in a bear market. The key "outside markets" were bullish for the natural gas futures market today, as the U.S. stock indexes were higher, crude oil prices were sharply higher and the U.S. dollar was weaker. Bears have the near term technical advantage.
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The September U.S. dollar index closed down 4 points at 80.00 today. Prices closed near mid range. Prices are still in an 11 week old downtrend on the daily bar chart. Bears still have the near term technical advantage.
Video: How Low Can The Dollar Go?
The U.S. stock indexes closed firmer today. Traders are awaiting Friday's key U.S. jobs report, which is not expected to be bullish, but traders have already factored in a significantly negative jobs loss figure. Do not be surprised to see more consolidative trade in the stock indexes, heading into the summer months, when traders focus more on family vacations and outdoor activities.
July crude oil closed up $2.66 at $68.78 a barrel today. Prices closed nearer the session high today and hit a fresh seven month high on a prediction from Goldman Sachs that crude oil prices would reach $85.00 a barrel this year and $95.00 next year. However, Goldman's track record on oil predictions is spotty. I would not be surprised to see crude oil prices touch the $70.00 a barrel mark and then see a good profit taking pullback. Crude oil bulls have the near term technical advantage. A six week old uptrend is still in place on the daily bar chart.
Trade Crude in 90 Seconds Click Here
July natural gas closed up 9.3 cents at $3.859 today. Prices closed nearer the session high today, on short covering in a bear market. The key "outside markets" were bullish for the natural gas futures market today, as the U.S. stock indexes were higher, crude oil prices were sharply higher and the U.S. dollar was weaker. Bears have the near term technical advantage.
4 FREE Videos for INO TV! Click Here
The September U.S. dollar index closed down 4 points at 80.00 today. Prices closed near mid range. Prices are still in an 11 week old downtrend on the daily bar chart. Bears still have the near term technical advantage.
Video: How Low Can The Dollar Go?
The U.S. stock indexes closed firmer today. Traders are awaiting Friday's key U.S. jobs report, which is not expected to be bullish, but traders have already factored in a significantly negative jobs loss figure. Do not be surprised to see more consolidative trade in the stock indexes, heading into the summer months, when traders focus more on family vacations and outdoor activities.
Alert: Trade Triangle Technology Signals Exit All Crude Oil Long Positions
ALERT: We have exited all long crude oil swing trade positions today.
Our “Trade Triangle” technology signaled an exit on all long crude oil positions today at 66.23 basis on the July contract.
Today’s Stock Market Club Trading Triangles
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Our “Trade Triangle” technology signaled an exit on all long crude oil positions today at 66.23 basis on the July contract.
Today’s Stock Market Club Trading Triangles
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Crude Oil Hinting That A Short Term Top May Be In
July crude oil was higher overnight due to short covering as it consolidates some of Wednesday's decline but remains below the 25% retracement of the 2008-2009 decline crossing at 68.49. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning bearish hinting that a short term top might be in or is near.
Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 62.22 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted.
If July extends this spring's rally, the 38% retracement of the 2008-2009 decline crossing at 82.38 is the next upside target.
Thursday's pivot point for crude oil is 66.62
First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 69.05
Second resistance is the 38% retracement level crossing at 82.38
First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 65.04
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 62.22
10:30 AM ET. May 29 EIA Natural Gas Inventories, in billion cubic feet
Total Working Gas in Storage (previous 2213)
Total Working Gas in Storage (Net Change) (previous +106)
Futures Prices Click Here
The June Dollar was steady to slightly lower overnight as it consolidates below the 62% retracement level of the July-March rally crossing at 79.80. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold and are turning bullish hinting that a short term low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 81.19 would confirm that a short term low has been posted.
If June extends the decline off April's high, the 75% retracement level of the aforementioned rally crossing at 77.55 is the next downside target.
First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 79.73
Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 80.99
First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 78.37
Second support is the 75% retracement level crossing at 77.55
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July Henry natural gas was slightly higher overnight due to short covering as it consolidates some of Wednesday's decline but remains below the 10-day moving average crossing at 3.838. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. Closes above Tuesday's high are needed to renew the rally off last week's low and would open the door for a possible test of May's high crossing at 4.690.
If July extends Wednesday's decline, last week's low crossing at 3.500 is the next downside target.
Thursday's pivot point for natural gas is 3.87
First resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.073
Second resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 4.284
First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 3.708
Second support is last Tuesday's low crossing at 3.500
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The June S&P 500 index was higher overnight due to short covering as it consolidates some of Wednesday's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.
It looks like day traders are neutral on the unemployment numbers and looking to play the bull side of the trade. Above the 930 pivot point first sellers should step in 936-939 possibly filling the gap all the way up to 954.75. If we get below the pivot point the target gap fill will be 917.
If June extends this spring's rally, the 38% retracement level of the 2008-2009 decline crossing at 1040.33 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 908.28 would confirm that a short term top has been posted.
Thursday's pivot point, out line in the sand is 930
First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 948.50
Second resistance is the 38% retracement level crossing at 1040.33
First support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 908.28
Second support is the reaction low crossing at 875.40
The June S&P 500 Index was up 3.90 points. at 935.60 as of 6:03 AM CST. Overnight action sets the stage for a higher opening by the June S&P 500 index when the day session begins later this morning.
Wednesday, June 3, 2009
Crude Oil Tumbles as Supplies Gain, Concerns About Fuel Demand
"Oil Tumbles as Supplies Gain, Fuel Demand Drops to 10 Year Low"
Crude oil fell the most in two weeks after a government report showed that U.S. supplies unexpectedly increased as fuel consumption plunged to a 10-year low.
Inventories climbed 2.9 million barrels to 366 million in the week ended May 29, according to the Energy Department. The gain occurred as imports surged 9.9 percent and refineries increased operating rates to the highest level in six months. Fuel demand fell to the lowest since May 1999. “The high inventories and weak demand we’re seeing don’t justify prices in the $60s,” said Chip Hodge, who oversees a $9 billion natural resource.....Complete Story
Trade Crude in 90 Seconds Click Here
"US Interior to Collect Billions from New O&G Fees in 2010"
The U.S Interior Department has projected $14 billion in revenue collections for fiscal year 2010, stemming from several new and increased fees. A new fee on non producing Gulf of Mexico offshore oil and gas leases would increase revenue by requiring lease holders to pay $4 per acre when leases are in non producing status, Interior Secretary Ken Salazar said in prepared testimony before a subcommittee of the Senate Appropriations Committee on Wednesday.The hearing addressed the Interior Department's fiscal.....Complete Story
Today’s Stock Market Club Trading Triangles
"Natural Gas Tumbles in New York on Outlook for Inventory Glut"
Natural gas futures fell the most in two weeks on speculation a government report tomorrow will show an above average stockpile increase as the recession restricts demand for the industrial fuel. The Energy Department will probably say inventories gained 117 billion cubic feet in the week ended May 29, according to the median of 16 analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg. The five-year average change is an increase of 94 billion. Supplies in last week’s report were 22 percent above normal.
“I expect tomorrow’s number to be more of the same,” said Stephen Schork, president of the Schork Group Inc.....Complete Story
Trading Video “How Low Can The Dollar Go”
Crude Oil Trading Lower As Dollar Gains Strength
July crude oil was slightly lower overnight due to profit taking as it consolidates below the 25% retracement of the 2008-2009 decline crossing at 68.49. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.
If July extends this spring's rally, the 38% retracement of the 2008-2009 decline crossing at 82.38 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 61.84 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted.
Wednesday's pivot point, our line in the sand is 68.24
First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 69.05
Second resistance is the 38% retracement level crossing at 82.38
First support is the 10 ay moving average crossing at 64.71
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 61.84
Get Current Futures Prices Click Here
The June Dollar was higher overnight due to short covering as it consolidates some of the decline below the 62% retracement level of the July-March rally crossing at 79.80. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are neutral signaling that additional weakness is possible near-term.
If June extends the decline off April's high, the 75% retracement level of the aforementioned rally crossing at 77.55 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 81.19 would confirm that a short term low has been posted.
First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 79.77
Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 81.19
First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 78.37
Second support is the 75% retracement level crossing at 77.55
Trade Crude in 90 Seconds Click Here
July Henry natural gas was slightly higher overnight as it consolidates above the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.100. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible nearterm.
If July extends Monday's rally, May's high crossing at 4.690 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10 day moving average crossing at 3.902 would temper the near term friendly outlook in the market.
Wednesday pivot point for natural gas is 4.16
First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 4.28
Second resistance is May's high crossing at 4.69
First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 3.90
Second support is last Tuesday's low crossing at 3.50
Today’s Stock Market Club Trading Triangles
The June S&P 500 index was lower overnight due to profit taking as it consolidates above January's high crossing at 937.00. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.
Day traders will be looking for bullish set ups above the pivot point at 942. We are looking the first congestion of sellers being at 953 and major selling taking place at 960. If we are break and cross the 942 pivot we will see traders start taking profits at 926 with a possibility of a full gap fill down to 921.75.
If June extends this spring's rally, the 38% retracement level of the 2008-2009 decline crossing at 1040.33 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 907.66 would confirm that a short term top has been posted.
Wednesday's pivot point, our line in the sand is 942
First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 948.50
Second resistance is the 38% retracement level crossing at 1040.33
First support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 907.66
Second support is the reaction low crossing at 875.40
The June S&P 500 Index was down 5.00 points. at 937.60 as of 6:06 AM CST. Overnight action sets the stage for a lower opening by the June S&P 500 index when the day session begins later this morning.
If July extends this spring's rally, the 38% retracement of the 2008-2009 decline crossing at 82.38 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 61.84 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted.
Wednesday's pivot point, our line in the sand is 68.24
First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 69.05
Second resistance is the 38% retracement level crossing at 82.38
First support is the 10 ay moving average crossing at 64.71
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 61.84
Get Current Futures Prices Click Here
The June Dollar was higher overnight due to short covering as it consolidates some of the decline below the 62% retracement level of the July-March rally crossing at 79.80. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are neutral signaling that additional weakness is possible near-term.
If June extends the decline off April's high, the 75% retracement level of the aforementioned rally crossing at 77.55 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 81.19 would confirm that a short term low has been posted.
First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 79.77
Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 81.19
First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 78.37
Second support is the 75% retracement level crossing at 77.55
Trade Crude in 90 Seconds Click Here
July Henry natural gas was slightly higher overnight as it consolidates above the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.100. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible nearterm.
If July extends Monday's rally, May's high crossing at 4.690 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10 day moving average crossing at 3.902 would temper the near term friendly outlook in the market.
Wednesday pivot point for natural gas is 4.16
First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 4.28
Second resistance is May's high crossing at 4.69
First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 3.90
Second support is last Tuesday's low crossing at 3.50
Today’s Stock Market Club Trading Triangles
The June S&P 500 index was lower overnight due to profit taking as it consolidates above January's high crossing at 937.00. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.
Day traders will be looking for bullish set ups above the pivot point at 942. We are looking the first congestion of sellers being at 953 and major selling taking place at 960. If we are break and cross the 942 pivot we will see traders start taking profits at 926 with a possibility of a full gap fill down to 921.75.
If June extends this spring's rally, the 38% retracement level of the 2008-2009 decline crossing at 1040.33 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 907.66 would confirm that a short term top has been posted.
Wednesday's pivot point, our line in the sand is 942
First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 948.50
Second resistance is the 38% retracement level crossing at 1040.33
First support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 907.66
Second support is the reaction low crossing at 875.40
The June S&P 500 Index was down 5.00 points. at 937.60 as of 6:06 AM CST. Overnight action sets the stage for a lower opening by the June S&P 500 index when the day session begins later this morning.
Tuesday, June 2, 2009
Crude Oil Bulls Still Have Near Term Advantage
July crude oil closed up $0.15 at $68.73 a barrel today. Prices closed near the session high and hit another fresh 6 1/2 month high today. Crude oil bulls have the solid near term technical advantage. The "money game" in the commodity markets continues, whereby funds are flowing into commodities with crude oil leading the way. A six week old uptrend is in place on the daily bar chart.
Trade Crude in 90 Seconds Click Here
July natural gas closed down 11.0 cents at $4.139 today. Prices closed nearer the session low today. The key "outside markets" were mixed for the natural gas futures market today, as the U.S. stock indexes were steady higher, crude oil prices were steady lower and the U.S. dollar was lower. Bears still have the near term technical advantage. However, the bulls have gained some momentum recently.
Today’s Stock Market Club Trading Triangles
The September U.S. dollar index closed down 78 points at 78.83 today. Prices closed near the session low and hit another fresh eight month low today. Prices are still in an 11 week old downtrend on the daily bar chart. Bears still have the solid near term technical advantage.
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Trade Crude in 90 Seconds Click Here
July natural gas closed down 11.0 cents at $4.139 today. Prices closed nearer the session low today. The key "outside markets" were mixed for the natural gas futures market today, as the U.S. stock indexes were steady higher, crude oil prices were steady lower and the U.S. dollar was lower. Bears still have the near term technical advantage. However, the bulls have gained some momentum recently.
Today’s Stock Market Club Trading Triangles
The September U.S. dollar index closed down 78 points at 78.83 today. Prices closed near the session low and hit another fresh eight month low today. Prices are still in an 11 week old downtrend on the daily bar chart. Bears still have the solid near term technical advantage.
4 FREE Videos for INO TV! Click Here
How Far Can the Dollar Fall?
We were quite amazed when we looked back to see how long it’s been since we had put together a Dollar Index (NYBOT_DX) video. We had to look back to September of 2008 to find the last series of videos we had done specifically for the Dollar Index, and it proved to be successful.
In today’s video we will look at the Dollar Index and the impact it is having on crude oil (NYMEX_CL) and other major markets. I’ll also make a rather surprising prediction as to the most likely trend the dollar is going to take in the next 12 months.
This is a video you will not want to miss as the ramifications of inflation and the dollar are rather shocking.
We will show you how MarketClub has used the same approach in the same market using our “Trade Triangle” technology to trade this index and just how successfully this approach has been.
We strongly recommend that you watch my earlier Dollar Index video and then watch the new one. This will give you more confidence in using our “Trade Triangle” approach.
As always, the videos are free to watch and there is no need to register. I would love to get your feedback about this video and your own predictions about these markets on our blog.
In today’s video we will look at the Dollar Index and the impact it is having on crude oil (NYMEX_CL) and other major markets. I’ll also make a rather surprising prediction as to the most likely trend the dollar is going to take in the next 12 months.
This is a video you will not want to miss as the ramifications of inflation and the dollar are rather shocking.
We will show you how MarketClub has used the same approach in the same market using our “Trade Triangle” technology to trade this index and just how successfully this approach has been.
We strongly recommend that you watch my earlier Dollar Index video and then watch the new one. This will give you more confidence in using our “Trade Triangle” approach.
As always, the videos are free to watch and there is no need to register. I would love to get your feedback about this video and your own predictions about these markets on our blog.
Crude Oil Consolidates Profits Overnight
July crude oil was slightly lower overnight due to profit taking as it consolidates below the 25% retracement of the 2008-2009 decline crossing at 68.49. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. Crude oil bulls are encouraged by the U.S. dollars weakness in over night trading.
If July extends this spring's rally, the 38% retracement of the 2008-2009 decline crossing at 82.38 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 61.19 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted.
Tuesday's pivot point is 67.66
First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 68.68
Second resistance is the 38% retracement level crossing at 82.38
First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 63.88
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 61.19
4:30 PM ET. May 29 API Oil Industry Report
Crude Stocks (Net Change) (previous -2.82M)
Gasoline Stocks (Net Change) (previous -758K)
Distillate Stocks (Net Change) (previous +142M)
Refinery Runs (previous 83.8%)
Today’s Stock Market Club Trading Triangles
The June Dollar was lower overnight as it extends last Friday's decline below the 62% retracement level of the July-March rally crossing at 79.80. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are neutral signaling that additional weakness is possible near term.
If June extends the decline off April's high, the 75% retracement level of the aforementioned rally crossing at 77.55 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 81.46 would confirm that a short term low has been posted.
First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 80.04
Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 81.46
First support is Monday's low crossing at 78.62
Second support is the 75% retracement level crossing at 77.55
Get Current Futures Prices Click Here
The June S&P 500 index was higher overnight and is trading above January's high crossing at 937.00 as it extends this spring's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.
Day traders are focusing on bullish set ups and if we trade above Monday evening high of 937 my first target will be 947.25 to take at least 50% of my profits. 952.25 would be my 2nd exit point.
If we break below the pivot point and we play the short side my target would be strong support at 929 to take profits.
If June extends this spring's rally, the 38% retracement level of the 2008-2009 decline crossing at 1040.33 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 905.89 would confirm that a short term top has been posted.
Tuesday's pivot point, our line in the sand is 935
First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 947.00
Second resistance is the 38% retracement level crossing at 1040.33
First support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 905.89
Second support is the reaction low crossing at 875.40
The June S&P 500 Index was up 2.50 points. at 941.60 as of 6:10 AM CST. Overnight action sets the stage for a higher opening by the June S&P 500 index when the day session begins later this morning.
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