Lower Dollar Sends Crude Higher

Crude oil closed up $1.88 at $67.38 a barrel today. Prices closed nearer the session high on a solid rebound from big losses Monday, and amid a sharply lower U.S. dollar today. Some chart damage was repaired today, but bulls have more work to do soon to suggest the June high can be taken out on the upside.

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Natural gas closed down 4.9 cents at $4.022 today. Prices closed near mid range today. The key "outside markets" were bullish for natural gas futures today, as the U.S. stock indexes were firmer, and crude oil was solidly higher, while the U.S. dollar was sharply lower. Yet, natural gas was pressured any way, which is a bearish clue.

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Oil and Gas Rise on Dollar Weakness, OPEC Wants $80 a Barrel

"Oil, Gasoline Rise as Dollar Drop Boosts Appeal of Commodities"
Crude oil rose more than $1 a barrel and gasoline climbed for the first time in five days as a weaker dollar bolstered the appeal of commodity futures as an alternative investment. Oil climbed as the U.S. currency slipped the most in a month against the euro on speculation that the Federal Reserve will temper expectations for an interest rate increase this year. An Energy Department report tomorrow is forecast to show that U.S. crude oil supplies fell.....Complete Story

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"OPEC Would Like Oil at $80 a Barrel for Investments"
The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries would like oil to reach a price level of $80 a barrel so that most investments in the industry can go ahead, OPEC President Jose Maria Botelho de Vasconcelos said Tuesday. "We would like to reach the $80 per barrel, so that investment could be met," he said during a press conference after meeting with European Union officials. He said the current level of between $60 a barrel.....Complete Story

Today’s Stock Market Club Trading Triangles

"Japan May End $1.5 Billion Venezuela Loan on Seizures"
Japan may cancel a planned $1.5 billion loan for Venezuela’s El Palito and Puerto La Cruz oil refineries after the South American nation seized Japanese company assets, said a person familiar with the situation. The Japan Bank for International Cooperation, or JBIC, is reviewing loans for the upgrades after Venezuela took over Japanese iron and chemicals assets and fell behind on payments to oil service contractors, according to the person, who declined to be identified because the review isn’t public.....Complete Story

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Bears Seem To Have The Near Term Advantage

Crude oil was lower in overnight trading as it extends Monday's decline below the 20 day moving average crossing at 69.54. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term.

If crude oil extends this week's decline, the 38% retracement of this spring's rally crossing at 62.25 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10 day moving average crossing at 70.91 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted.

Tuesday's pivot point, our line in the sand is 68.05

First resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 69.54
Second resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 70.91

First support is the overnight low crossing at 66.37
Second support is the 38% retracement level at 62.25

Today’s Stock Market Club Trading Triangles

Natural gas was higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates some of Monday's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term.

Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 3.938 would temper the near term friendly outlook in the market.

If July renews this month's rally, May's high crossing at 4.690 is the next upside target.

First resistance is last Tuesday's high crossing at 4.387
Second resistance is May's high crossing at 4.690

First support is Monday's low crossing at 3.860
Second support is the reaction low crossing at 3.550

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Crude Oil Falls, Lower Open Possible On Tuesday

Crude oil closed sharply lower on Monday and closed below the 20 day moving average crossing at 68.59 confirming that a short term top has been posted. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term.

If July extends today's decline, the 25% retracement level of this spring's rally crossing at 65.56 is the next downside target. Closes above last Friday's high crossing at 72.30 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted.

First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 70.60
Second resistance is last Friday's high crossing at 72.30

First support is today's low crossing at 66.25
Second support is the 25% retracement level at 65.56

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Natural gas closed lower on Monday as it extended last week's decline. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term.

If July extends today's decline, the reaction low crossing at 3.550 is the next downside target. From a broad perspective, July needs to close above 4.721 or below 3.395 to confirm a breakout of this spring's trading range and point the direction of the next trending move.

First resistance is last Tuesday's high crossing at 4.387
Second resistance is May's high crossing at 4.690

First support is today's low crossing at 3.860
Second support is the reaction low crossing at 3.550

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Oil and Gas Tumble on World Bank Report, More Rigs For Petrobras?

"Oil, Gasoline Tumble as World Bank Predicts a Deeper Recession"
Crude oil fell more than $2 and gasoline tumbled after the World Bank said the global recession will be deeper than forecast, bolstering concern that fuel consumption will remain depressed. Oil dropped as much as 4.7 percent after the bank projected the global economy will contract 2.9 percent this year, more than its previously forecast decrease of 1.7 percent. Prices also declined as the dollar strengthened, reducing the appeal of commodities as an alternative investment. “We’re lower because reality is asserting itself,”.....Complete Story

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"Petrobras to Reel in More Rigs for Offshore Santos Basin"
Brazilian state-run energy giant Petrobras (PBR) expects to bring up to four more drilling rigs to a prospect in the offshore Santos Basin in the second half of the year. The ultra-deepwater rigs will be used to "attack" areas in the subsalt region in the Santos Basin, Petrobras' Mario Carminatti told the local Estado news agency. The Santos Basin is home to the Tupi field, the Western Hemisphere's largest oil discovery in more than 30 years.....Complete Story

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"Oil’s Channel Break May Signal End to Rally"
Oil prices moved out of a so called ascending channel that started in April, signaling crude’s rally may falter. Crude oil for July delivery fell 2.6 percent to $69.55 a barrel on June 19, the biggest drop for the front-month contract in two weeks. It was the first close outside a channel that’s bounded intraday highs and lows during the last two months, Zug, Switzerland-based consultant Petromatrix GmbH said today. “The ascending channel was invalidated for the first time and this clearly need to be taken as a negative,” Petromatrix managing director Olivier Jakob said in a note to clients.....Complete Story

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Crude Oil Bears Seem To Have Near Term Advantage

Crude oil was lower overnight and is trading below the 20 day moving average crossing at 68.66. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term.

Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 68.66 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted while opening the door for a larger degree decline into the end of June.

If July resumes this spring's rally, the 38% retracement of the 2008-2009 decline crossing at 82.38 is the next upside target.

Crude oil pivot point for Monday is 70.76

First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 70.75
Second resistance is last Thursday's high crossing at 73.23

First support is the overnight low crossing at 67.89
Second support is the reaction low crossing at 64.95

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Natural gas was lower overnight as it extends last week's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 3.926 would temper the near term friendly outlook in the market.

If July renews this month's rally, May's high crossing at 4.690 is the next upside target.

Natural gas pivot point for Monday is 4.07

First resistance is last Tuesday's high crossing at 4.387
Second resistance is May's high crossing at 4.690

First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 3.990
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 3.926

Could This Be Crude Oil's New Trading Range?

I couldn't resist posting this chart from one of my favorite swing traders Atilla and his blog xtrends. Atilla has become popular this year as a die hard bear, an unfair title as he is just a realistic trader that looks at long term trends. And yes it's true, we are still in a bear market.

Here is his current view on the trading range we are in for crude oil

Just click on the chart to enlarge.....

Crude Oil Trading Small Specs

If you haven't visited or subscribed to Rich Olney's "Crude Oil Trading Small Specs" site, it's time you did. Rich provides some of the best crude oil trading calls available, worth every bit of the small fee he charges.

Here is his weekend call for June 20th....

"Crude Oil Thoughts"

Oh so close to a sell signal on the daily but not yet. The daily is still on a buy. Every pull back has been a buy so is this time diff? If the FED stays the course, which I think they will, Crude should make new highs before the pull back happens that everyone is looking for. I will add more to this string later but the commercials increased their OI last week and reduced their net short position as well not bearish action by any means. Also the USO chart is misleading since it is the second derivative and we are in contango market use the futures contract..........(USO chart paints a diff picture).

I think we can get the big sell off many are looking for if the FED changes their bias statement to indicate a move away from quantitative easing (QE). The current US QE policy is the main reason for the oil rise and dollar weakness. So that is what oil traders will be looking for a change to the current QE policy in the Wednesday FED statement. If no change to QE policy then more of the same declining dollar and rising crude oil. So if you are shorting oil looking for an IT move down then you are betting that the FED will change their QE stance on Wednesday IMHO.

You can see on the chart below from the 2008 bull market that 38.2% and 50% retracements on the daily chart were par for the course and a buying opportunity every single time. Buying the pull backs at the the 38.2% and 50% retracements was the way to go till the trendline on the daily broke.

Crude is currently at the 50% retrace at 69.90 which is the half way mark between the previous swing low at 65.92 and swing high at 73.90. So my point is the daily trend line is not broken, and we are at the 50% from the last swing low to swing high which when looking at the last bull market was a golden opportunity to buy. That's what has me long here despite all the bearishness on crude.....Click Here For His Complete Post and Charts

Eric Bolling: Street Meat, Got gas?

I don't know about you but I miss Eric Bolling on CNBC. Seems like they dump anyone with a mind of their own. You can't argue this, Eric Bolling knows the energy sector. Check out this video from Fox Business, Street Meat, are oil prices surging?

Crude Oil Post Key Reversal Down Day on Friday

Crude oil posted a key reversal down on Friday and closed below the 10 day moving average crossing at 70.72 signaling that a short term top has been posted. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday.

Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that a short term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 68.33 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted.

If July extends the rally off April's low, the 38% retracement level of the 2008-2009 decline crossing at 82.38 is the next upside target.

First resistance is last Thursday's high crossing at 73.23
Second resistance is the 38% retracement level crossing at 82.38

First support is today's low crossing at 68.90
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 68.33